Can Cohort Replacement Explain Changes in the Relationship Between Age and Homicide Offending?
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Date
2008-09-18
Authors
O'Brien, Robert M.
Stockard, Jean
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Springer
Abstract
This paper focuses on shifts in the age distribution of homicide offending in the
United States. This distribution remained remarkably stable with small but significant
changes over a long period of time. Then between 1985 and 1990 the rates of homicide
offending doubled for 15-to-19 year olds and increased nearly 40% for 20-to-24 year olds,
while the homicide offending rates decreased for those over 30. In addition to this ‘‘epidemic
of youth homicide,’’ which lasted through the mid-1990s, there have been
systematic changes in the age distribution of homicide in the United States associated with
cohort replacement over the past 40 years. We introduce an estimable function approach
for estimating the effects of age, period, and cohort. The method allows us to assess
simultaneously the impacts of periods and cohorts on the age distribution of homicide
offending. We find that although the age curve remains relatively stable, there are shifts in
it associated systematically with cohort replacement. Cohort replacement accounts for
nearly half of the upturn in youth homicides during the epidemic of youth homicides, but a
significant fraction of that upturn is not associated with cohort replacement.
Description
23 pages
Keywords
Age Distribution of Homicide, Epidemic of Youth Homicide, Estimable Functions, Cohort Replacement
Citation
O’Brien, R. M., & Stockard, J. (2008). Can Cohort Replacement Explain Changes in the Relationship Between Age and Homicide Offending? Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 25, 79- 101. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-008-9059-1