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Item access-status.open.access.listelement.badge The rising share of nonmarital births: A response to Ermisch, Martin, and Wu(University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2008-09) Gray, Jo Anna; Stockard, Jean; Stone, Joe A.Item access-status.open.access.listelement.badge Race Differences in Cohort Effects on Nonmarital Fertility in the United States(University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2008-01) Stone, Joe A.; Gray, Jo Anna; Stockard, Jean; O'Brien, RobertWe employ newly developed methods to disentangle age, period and cohort effects on nonmarital fertility ratios (NFRs) from 1972 to 2002 for black and white women aged 20-44 in the United States. We focus on three cohort factors: family structure, school enrollment, and the sex ratio. For both blacks and whites, cohorts with less traditional family structures have higher NFRs. Other results differ by race. The impact of school enrollment on NFRs is significantly negative for whites, but significantly positive for blacks. The impact of sex ratio is significantly negative for blacks, but insignificant for whites. If black women and white women had cohort characteristics typical of the other group, age-specific NFRs for black women would decline markedly, while those for whites would increase markedly.Item access-status.open.access.listelement.badge Ranking State Fiscal Structures using Theory and Evidence(University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2007-06) Bania, Neil; Stone, Joe A.This paper offers unique rankings of the extent to which fiscal structures of U.S. states contribute to economic growth. The rankings are novel in two key respects: they are well grounded in established growth theory, in which the effect of taxes depends both on the level of taxes and on the composition of expenditures; and they are derived from actual estimates of the link between fiscal structures and economic growth. Estimates for the latter yield a growth hill, in which the incremental effect of taxes spent on productive services and infrastructure initially rises, reaches a peak, and then declines. Rankings derived from these estimates differ sharply from typical rankings based on levels of taxation alone. Two hypothetical policy experiments highlight both the growth-hill effects of tax investments in productive services and infrastructure and the short- and long-term tradeoffs in attempting to fund strong social services.Item access-status.open.access.listelement.badge The Rising Share of Nonmarital Births Fertility Choice or Marriage Behavior? Response to Ermisch, Martin, and Wu*(Department of Economics, University of Oregon, 2008-09) Stone, Joe A.; Stockard, Jean; Gray, Jo AnnaIn a 2006 article in Demography, Jo Anna Gray, Jean Stockard and Joe Stone (GSSi)observe that among black women and white women ages 20 to 39, birth rates increased sharply for unmarried women over the period 1974 to 2000. But they also increased for married women, as well, and yet the total birth rate for married and unmarried women combined was essentially unchanged; ii)conclude that's since the total birth rate did not change, it seems obvious by inspection that the rises in unmarried and married birth rates could not have come from a general rise in fertility among women 20-39; iii)argue that these patterns are an example of a phenomenon called "Simpson's paradox", often illustrated by a joke, as told at Harvard, that when a student transfers from Harvard to Yale, mean intelligence rises at both places. Both means rise not because the average intelligence of the combined student bodies changed, but because the composition of the student body changed at each school; iv) conclude that between 1974 and 2000, sharp increases in the proportion of women who were single, termed the single share, or Su, changed the composition of the pools of married and unmarried women. The rising single share had a selection effect on the pools of married and unmarried women akin to the hypothetical student transfer from Harvard to Yale. Women with target fertility below the average for married women, but above the average for unmarried women, became less likely to marry than previously, so that mean birth rates for both groups rose over the period, and iv) using age/race-specific panel data, find parameter values strikingly consistent with those predicted by their illustrative model, and a dominant role for the selection effect of the single share in determining NFR on this. Recently Ermisch Martin and Wu (EMW) have challenged the GSS findings and conclusions. In this response GSS respond to the EMW challenges, and reaffirm the GSS results and conclusions.Item access-status.open.access.listelement.badge Cohort Effects on Nonmarital Fertility(University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2007-05) Stockard, Jean; Gray, Jo Anna; O'Brien, Robert; Stone, Joe A.The authors employ a newly developed method to disentangle age, period and cohort effects on nonmarital fertility ratios (NFR) from 1972 to 2002 for U.S. women aged 20-44 – with a focus on three specific cohort factors: family structure, school enrollment, and the ratio of men to women. All play significant roles in determining NFR and vary substantially for whites and blacks. Indeed, if black women and white women had cohort characteristics typical of the other group, age-specific NFRs for black women would decline markedly, while those for whites would increase markedly. Hence, cohort related variables contribute substantially to black-white differences in NFR in adulthood. Early family structure and education are particularly crucial in the racial differences. Most distinctively, while the impact of school enrollment on NFR is significantly negative for whites, the impact is significantly positive for blacks, perhaps due to the dominance of the “independence” effect.Item access-status.open.access.listelement.badge Childbearing, marriage and human capital investment(University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2006-02) Gray, Jo Anna; Stone, Joe A.; Stockard, JeanThis paper proposes and tests a simple joint explanation for i) increases in marital and nonmarital birth rates in the United States over recent decades, ii) the dramatic rise in the share of nonmarital births, and iii) the pronounced racial differences in the timing of childbearing. The explanation arises from differences across time and race in the attractiveness of marriage and opportunities for investment in human capital. For given preferences, a decline in the marriage rate necessarily causes both the marital and nonmarital birth rates to increase, with no change in the total birth rate. This model exhibits exceptional power in replicating salient features of childbearing behavior. Our results suggest that changes in marital and nonmarital birth rates, as well as in the share of nonmarital births, arose primarily from changes in marriage behavior, not from changes in fertility; and that racial differences in the timing of childbearing reflect early differences in human capital investment.Item access-status.open.access.listelement.badge Ricardian Equivalence for Sub-national States(University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2005-12-12) Gray, Jo Anna; Stone, Joe A.The authors test Ricardian equivalence within an endogenous growth model for U.S. states, which have high rates of migration relative to most countries. Results are consistent with both Ricardian equivalence and endogenous growth, despite the relative ease of migration. Increases in productive government expenditures increase long-run growth by the same amount, for example, whether financed by taxes or bonds. State rules limiting the use of bond financing may play a role in supporting Ricardian equivalence. The study provides the first explicit test of Ricardian equivalence for sub-national states in the context of an endogenous growth model.Item access-status.open.access.listelement.badge A tale of two shares: The relationship between the “illegitimacy” ratio and the marriage share(University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2004-06-11) Gray, Jo Anna; Stockard, Jean; Stone, Joe A.We develop a model of fertility and marriage that implies a magnified effect of marriage rates on the share of births to unmarried women. For U.S. data, plots and regression estimates support the prediction that the share of unmarried births is driven primarily by the square of the share of unmarried women. Our findings suggest that some of the emphasis on changes in fertility behavior in explaining the rising share of births to unmarried women might be productively redirected toward exploring the role and determinants of changes in marriage behavior. Moreover, previous studies of fertility behavior, to the extent that marital status is taken as given, may confound fertility and marriage behavior.Item access-status.open.access.listelement.badge The Rising Share of Nonmarital Births: Fertility Choices or Marriage Behavior?(University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2004-11-01) Gray, Jo Anna; Stockard, Jean; Stone, Joe A.Much of the sharp rise in the share of nonmarital births in the United States has been attributed to changes in the fertility choices of unmarried and married women - in response, it is often argued, to various public policies. In contrast, we develop and test a model that attributes the rise to changes in marriage behavior, with no changes in fertility. A variety of empirical tests strongly supports this conclusion and invites focused attention to issues related to marriage behavior, as well as the interactions between marriage and fertility.Item access-status.open.access.listelement.badge ‘Guns and Butter’ in U.S. Presidential Elections(University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2004-09-20) Haynes, Stephen E., 1945-; Stone, Joe A.Previous models of the popular vote in U.S. Presidential elections emphasize economic growth and price stability, the role of parties and incumbency, and pre-election expectations for the future. Despite the closeness of the pre-election polls in 2004, formal models instead predict a landslide victory for President Bush. An obvious question is whether this anomaly arises, at least in part, from national security concerns – in particular, the conflict in Iraq. We explore this pre-election anomaly by introducing two opposing electoral forces capturing national security concerns, which for the 2004 election reduces President Bush's predicted vote share. In general, the impact of national security concerns on the vote share of the incumbent (or the incumbent's party) can be substantial, whether positive, as in the 1944 election during World War II, or negative, as in the 1952 election during the Korean war and the 1968 election during the Vietnam war.Item access-status.open.access.listelement.badge For Whom the Pell Tolls: Market Power, Tuition Discrimination, and the Bennett Hypothesis(University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2003-04-10) Singell, Larry D. Jr.; Stone, Joe A.Are federal Pell grants "appropriated" by universities through increases in tuition - consistent with what is known as the Bennett hypothesis? Based on a panel of 71 universities from 1983 to 1996, we find little evidence of the Bennett hypothesis among either public or lower-ranked private universities. For top-ranked private universities, though, increases in Pell grants appear to be more than matched by increases in net tuition. The behavior most consistent with this result is price discrimination that is not purely redistributive from wealthier to needier students.Item access-status.open.access.listelement.badge Teachers’ Unions: Outcomes and Reform Initiatives(University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2002-02-01) Eberts, Randall W.; Hollenbeck, Kevin; Stone, Joe A.No abstract submitted.