Geography Theses and Dissertations

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Browsing Geography Theses and Dissertations by Author "Bone, Christopher"

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    An Agent-Based Model of Wildlife Migratory Patterns in Human-Disturbed Landscapes
    (University of Oregon, 2015-08-18) Tierney, Lauren; Bone, Christopher
    In recent years, human decision-making has led to significant landscape impacts in the western United States. Specifically, migratory wildlife populations have increasingly been impacted by rural urban development and energy resource development. This research presents the application of agent-based modeling to explore how such impacts influence the characteristics of migratory animal movement, focusing on mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in Western Wyoming. This study utilizes complex adaptive systems and agent-based modeling frameworks to increase understanding of migratory patterns in a changing landscape and explores thresholds of interference to migration patterns due to increased habitat degradation and fragmentation. The agent-based model utilizes GPS-collar data to examine how individual processes lead to population-level patterns of movement and adaptation. The assessment incorporates elements from both human and natural systems to explore potential future scenarios for human development in the natural landscape and incorporates adaptive behaviors, as well as animal-movement ecology, in changing landscapes.
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    Effects of Climate Change and Forest Governance on Large-scale Insect Outbreaks: A Socio-ecological Systems Case Study of the Mountain Pine Beetle in North America
    (University of Oregon, 2020-02-27) Chen, Dongmei; Bone, Christopher
    The mountain pine beetle (MPB) has devastated trees on more than 1.3 million square kilometers of land in North America, converting these forests from a carbon sink to a carbon source. The beetle population has reached an unprecedented level over the 20th century, quickly expanding its outbreak range to regions historically too cold for it to survive. The range expansion has been widely attributed to climate change, yet the relative contributions of climate change and forest governance to MPB infestations have been largely overlooked. This dissertation studies large-scale MPB outbreaks with a perspective grounded in socio-ecological systems (SES) to illustrate the complex adaptive systems of MPB. By primarily utilizing predictive models to reveal nonlinear and emergent patterns of MPB eruptions, the dissertation investigates cross-scale biotic and abiotic interactions in the MPB SES to explain both top-down and bottom-up controls on beetle outbreaks. In so doing, the case study makes four interdisciplinary contributions. First, it initially examines the continental-scale MPB range expansion that shows extraordinary patterns emerged from ecological processes at local and regional scales. Second, it provides a SES model of large-scale forest disturbances to advance the understanding of anthropogenic impacts on ecosystems. Third, it extends the application of SES resilience to the relationship between regime shift and resilience. Fourth, it creates transferable data and methods for future landscape ecological research. The dissertation uses climate space to visualize how the MPB climate niche has changed with its spatial expansion, species distribution modeling to demonstrate how bioclimate has contributed to outbreak probability, and geographically weighted regression to localize the significance of climatic and non-climatic factors in driving MPB outbreaks. The results show that the MPB has expanded to a colder climate space compared with its previous range. The landscape-level MPB eruptions exhibit a strong response to climatic warming. Non-climatic controls are common, especially as long-term fire exclusion causing positive feedback to MPB outbreaks. The complexity of MPB SES presents an archetypical ‘tipping-point’ model triggered by human impacts, in which a shift in the disturbance regime reveals that anthropogenically-amplified MPB outbreaks are transforming forest ecosystems.
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    Evaluating the Influence of Policy and Technology in Driving Aquaculture Land Use Patterns in Thailand, 1990-2013
    (University of Oregon, 2014-10-17) Mosurinjohn, Nathan; Bone, Christopher
    Since the 1980's shrimp aquaculture has been one of Thailand's largest industries and has created cultivation ponds as a dominant feature on the landscape. While shrimp farming has been economically successful, it has received criticism for being environmentally harmful, most notably because of farms replacing mangrove forests. Legislation regulating aquaculture development and technological responses to disease outbreak have had a large influence on the land use of the Thai coast. The objective of this research is to provide a systematic examination of how regulation and technology development have influenced land use in this region. To accomplish this, Landsat derived data were analyzed at the national and provincial scale to determine how Thai coastal land use systems change over time. I found that interrelated changes in technology and legislation have had complex influences on the landscape, which encourage both the restriction and expansion of aquaculture growth depending on time and location.
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    Examining the role of collaborative governance in fostering adaptive capacity: A case study from northwest Colorado
    (University of Oregon, 2016-10-27) Grummon, Christine; Bone, Christopher
    Over the past two decades, the mountain pine beetle (MPB) has killed millions of acres of forest across western North America. In addition to extensive environmental disturbance, the MPB epidemic has deeply impacted human systems, including motivating the formation of novel environmental governance arrangements. In Colorado, the Colorado Bark Beetle Cooperative (CBBC) formed as a collaboration between federal, state, and local stakeholders to address the epidemic. This study used a combination of GIS analysis and qualitative document analysis to understand how the CBBC has been able to respond adaptively to changes in the landscape pattern of MPB damage. I found that the CBBC was able to respond adaptively to changes in the MPB outbreak through shifting their organizational direction and activities. However, the adaptive capacity of the group was constrained by logistical factors, the declining importance of MPB at a national level, and the ways in which the group framed the MPB problem.
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    Finding High Ground: Simulating an Evacuation in a Lahar Risk Zone
    (University of Oregon, 2016-10-27) Bard, Joseph; Bone, Christopher
    Large lahars threaten communities living near volcanoes all over the world. Evacuations are a critical strategy for reducing vulnerability and mitigating a disaster. Hazard perceptions, transportation infrastructure, and transportation mode choice are all important factors in determining the effectiveness of an evacuation. This research explores the effects of population, whether individuals drive or walk, response time, and exit closures on an evacuation in a community threatened by a large lahar originating on Mount Rainier, Washington. An agent-based model employing a co-evolutionary learning algorithm is used to simulate a vehicular evacuation. Clearance times increase when the population is larger and when exits are blocked. Clearance times are reduced when a larger proportion of agents opt out of driving, and as the model learns. Results indicate evacuation times vary greatly due to spatial differences in the transportation network, the initial population distribution, and individual behaviors during the evacuation.
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    Identifying Spatial Data Needs for Chagas Disease Mitigation
    (University of Oregon, 2015-08-18) Morris, Emily; Bone, Christopher
    The objective of this thesis is to analyze how existing data can address Chagas disease transmission risk in South America given data availability. A literature review was conducted to determine prominent variables that models use to assist with Chagas disease mitigation efforts, followed by a Web search to collect publicly available spatial data pertaining to these variables. The data were then used to create maps of data availability and in an agent-based model to identify which variables are most associated with disease transmission risk. Data availability varied widely across South America, and model results indicate that datasets related to household size and spatial housing arrangement are most important to Chagas disease infection in urban areas. Governments can use this information to better direct their resources to collect data and control the spread of triatomine vectors and Chagas disease more effectively, and potentially identify more cost-effective strategies for vector elimination.
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    Understanding the Roles of Network Structure and Distance in the Process of Natural Resource Policy Implementation
    (University of Oregon, 2015-08-18) Kenbeek, Seth; Bone, Christopher
    Policy makers write policies that are implemented by actors at various levels of government. This results in policies that are implemented differently than how they were intended due to institutional contexts, pressure from the agency, personal beliefs, and collaboration between bureaucrats. This is especially true of natural resource policies, which are implemented at local scales by actors spread across the landscape. This research explores the effects that pressure from above, beliefs of individual actors, collaboration between actors, network structure, and distance between actors collectively have on policy implementation in federal natural resource agencies. A network modeling approach is employed to simulate the policy implementation process as a network of bureaucrats. Results indicate that network structure has little influence on the policy outcome, but adding distance alters the policy outcomes sensitivity to other parameters. The results illuminate the need to consider distance in policy implementation research.