Browsing by Author "Waddell, Glen"

Now showing 1 - 8 of 8
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    Branding and Viewership: Does a Uniform Presentation Change Public Interest?
    (University of Oregon, 2024) Soto-Cruz, Fernando; Waddell, Glen
    This research paper examines the impact of the UFC Reebok policy on consumer interest in MMA events. The study employs difference-in-differences and interrupted time series regressions using attendance and pay-per-view data. The findings suggest that the Reebok policy does not significantly influence consumer interest in MMA events. Instead, factors such as weight class and UFC brand have a greater impact. The study implies that standardizing fighter appearance may not benefit the UFC, as consumers value individuality and uniqueness more than uniformity and homogeneity.
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    Essays in Applied Machine Learning and Causal Inference
    (University of Oregon, 2022-10-26) Lennon, Connor; Waddell, Glen
    This dissertation represents a study of how machine learning can be incorporated into existing econometric causal techniques, with explorationsboth in the costs and benefits of making that choice. The first chapter explores a simulated instrumental variables setting to evaluate the ease of incorporating unmodified machine learning techniques into the ”first stage“ problem. The first stage of two-stage least squares (2SLS) is a prediction problem—suggesting gains from utilizing ML in 2SLS’s first stage. However, little guidance exists on when ML helps 2SLS—or when it hurts. We investigate the implications of inserting ML into 2SLS, decomposing the bias into three informative components. Mechanically, ML-in-2SLS procedures face issues common to prediction and causal-inference settings—and their interaction. Through simulation, we show linear ML methods (e.g.post-Lasso) work “well,” while nonlinear methods (e.g.random forests, neural nets) generate substantial bias in second-stage estimates—some exceeding the bias of endogenous OLS. This work was performed in conjunction with professors Edward Rubin and Glen Waddell. The chapter author wrote simulation code, excepting the substantial portions used for table creation and to iterate over differing methods, to evaluate and run the methods tested in this chapter, and we designed the DGP function based on those found in Belloni, Chen, Chernozhukov, and Hansen (2012). The second chapter is an applied use of Machine Learning to evaluate an existing causal estimate of property value on suppression costs in the Wildfire Economics space. Models in use currently rely on excluding class A-D wildfires that burn fewer than 300 acres, use property values as an input and feature differential estimates for per-acre suppression costs in the Eastern and Western United States. However, restricting suppression cost estimates to large fires ignores wildfires that have high per-acre costs due to aggressive initial-attack strategies, and fires occurring in well-managed forests with fewer suppression requirements, which may lead SCI-derived estimates of cost to be biased and potentially be overly responsive to changes in local wealth. Using double/debiased vision transformers, SCI parameters overestimate the impact of property value as a contributor to suppression costs. This dissertation includes unpublished and co-authored material.
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    Essays in Applied Microeconomics
    (University of Oregon, 2022-10-04) Raze, Kyle; Waddell, Glen
    In this dissertation, I consider two potential sources of racial disparities: racially biased discipline at school and changes to voting rights protections. In the first chapter, I examine patterns of racial disparities in school discipline. Racial gaps in the adjudication of student misconduct are well documented—for similar behaviors, students of color are more likely to be disciplined and discipline tends to be harsher. While students of color do receive harsher punishments, on average, I show that this differential depends on the racial composition of incidents. Consistent with administrators moving toward equal treatment when variation in race is more salient, multi-race incidents evidence no differentials. In fact, when a white student is implicated in the same incident as a student of color, punishments imposed on students of color are indistinguishable from those imposed on white students in all-white incidents. In the second chapter, I turn to the effects of changes to voting rights protections on racial disparities in voter turnout. Existing research shows that the Voting Rights Act of 1965 increased turnout among Black voters, which then generated economic benefits for Black communities. In Shelby County v. Holder (2013), the Supreme Court invalidated the enforcement mechanism responsible for these improvements, prompting concerns that states with histories of discriminatory election practices would respond by suppressing Black turnout. I estimate the effect of the Shelby decision on the racial composition of the electorate using triple-difference comparisons of validated turnout data from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study. The data suggest that the Shelby decision did not widen the Black-white turnout gap in states subject to the ruling.
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    Essays in Causal Inference and Synthetic Control
    (University of Oregon, 2019-09-18) Minard, Simeon; Waddell, Glen
    This dissertation includes previously unpublished co-authored material. The first chapter of this dissertation outlines a new method of estimating the synthetic control technique that has a number of desirable properties. The second chapter causally infers a positive property crime impact of supply side drug intervention, and important policy result. The third and final chapter outlines an method of variable selection in linear regression to be used to decrease bias and increase precision.
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    Essays in Education Economics
    (University of Oregon, 2022-10-04) Putz, Jenni; Waddell, Glen
    I empirically explore the potential post-secondary enrollment effects of Louisiana’s legislation requiring high school students to file a FAFSA application, or opt-out, prior to graduation. FAFSA submissions increased significantly in Louisiana following the policy change, suggesting there may have been some follow through into post-secondary institutions. I use a synthetic control approach to estimate causal impacts of Louisiana’s FAFSA policy on college enrollment and Pell Grant awards. I find suggestive evidence that students may have substituted away from public two-year institutions towards four-year institutions. Specifically, I find marginally significant effects on enrollment for Black students at large, public four-year universities.In evaluating the effect of nutrition and academic achievement, I exploit variation in the timing of schools’ participation in the USDA Fresh Fruits and Vegetables Program. Using a staggered difference-in-differences design, I estimate the effect of receiving FFVP grants on school-level academic achievement. Results suggest that FFVP participation reduces school-level average test scores, but I am unable to distinguish the effect from a null effect. I then explore the effects of a reading intervention aimed young, school-aged children and academic achievement. Specifically, using student-level data, I evaluate the effect of Michigan’s 2014 "Culture of Reading Program" on third grade standardized test scores. I consider the potential heterogeneity by how young students were when they received access to the program. I find significant, positive increases in achievement for students who received the program while enrolled in public Pre-K, but I find no such effects for students enrolled in kindergarten, first grade, or second grade.
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    Essays in Labor Economics
    (University of Oregon, 2024-08-07) Wilson, Brock; Waddell, Glen
    In Chapter 1, I exploit a policy change for U.S. federal workers’ pension benefits to estimate the effect of pension generosity on worker retirement, retention and recruitment. The policy increased pensions by 16%-25% or approximately $111,000. There is a 30% decrease in job quits for permanent workers. However, there is little evidence that pension generosity has an effect on new hires. This suggests salience may play a role in how workers value pensions. Additionally, I find a large heterogeneous labor supply response to pension generosity. Altogether, this shows that pension generosity is effective in retaining workers and may have important implications for workforce planning. In Chapter 2, I estimate a structural model of retirement that incorporates anticipatory labor responses. Under a naive model that assumes workers do not respond to financial incentives, fiscal costs will be underestimated. When workers dynamically respond to pension incentives, they delay their retirement to maximize their pension value which leads to higher fiscal costs. I estimate that, when not accounting for dynamic labor responses, fiscal costs will be underestimated by 8% to 20%. Altogether, policymakers intending to decrease public pension generosity may underestimate the fiscal costs without modeling anticipatory labor responses. Chapter 3 studies the effect of disability-based affirmative action on the federal workforce. We provide descriptive evidence there is an increase in representation of workers with disabilities. However, we find that this increase is relatively larger for less severe disabilities compared to more severe disabilities. Additionally, we find evidence there is a decrease in representation among agencies that satisfy the mandate. The results suggest that severity of disability may need to be considered when mandating disability-based affirmative action. This dissertation includes unpublished coauthored material.
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    Essays on the Judiciary
    (University of Oregon, 2020-09-24) Mindock, Maxwell; Waddell, Glen
    The complexities of the Judicial system provides unique research opportunities to model and learn about human behavior. Whether it be the opinions of United States Supreme Court Justices or the length of time a defendant is sentenced to incarceration, judicial outcomes are of extreme importance to all involved. In this thesis, I study vote determination on the Supreme Court, finding evidence of systematic variation in vote dependencies that align with Justice partisanship, sentencing cohort effects within criminal sentencing, finding evidence judges do not sentence defendants independently of other defendants, and multiplicity effects within criminal sentencing, finding evidence judges do not sentence offenses independently among defendants with multiple offenses and that the black-white racial gap in sentencing is larger than previously thought. This dissertation includes previously unpublished co-authored material.
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    Three Essays in Applied Microeconomics
    (University of Oregon, 2024-01-09) McDonough, Robert; Waddell, Glen
    This dissertation examines three topics in applied microeconomics: econometric challenges created by student grade-point averaging, the causal effect of violent video games on crime, and spatial distortions created by the US social safety net. Chapter 1 (with Glen Waddell) considers the underlying combinatorics of grade-point averaging, and the evolution of a GPA as students take classes. We illustrate the implications for inference that relies on the comparison of students with similar GPAs. In the context of a regression discontinuity, researchers are most exposed to this sensitivity with fewer classes contributing to GPA and at smaller bandwidths. While larger bandwidths shield such estimators from this challenge, this accommodation relies on the assumption of sufficient overlap of student types—to the extent there is not, identification is again threatened. Chapter 2 (with Gretchen Gamrat) examines the causal relationship between violent video game releases and violent crime patterns. Using county-level variation in retail sales of “mature” video games, we leverage exogenous variation in exposure to identify corresponding changes in crime outcomes. Especially after high-profile violent crimes, policymakers and the news media frequently argue that increased exposure to violent games leads to increased violent crime. We find no such evidence. If anything, our analysis suggests that short-run decreases in violent crime, specifically violent sexual offenses, follow the release of mature video games. Chapter 3 (with Mark Colas) studies the effect of the US social safety net on household location choice. US social transfer programs vary substantially across states, incentivizing households to locate in states with more generous transfer programs. Further, transfer formulas often decrease in income, thereby rewarding low-income households for living in low-paying cities. We quantify these distortions by combining a spatial equilibrium model with a detailed model of transfer programs in the US. Chapter 4 concludes this dissertation. This dissertation includes previously both previously published and unpublished and co-authored material.