Decision Research

Permanent URI for this community

https://hdl.handle.net/1794/22169

Founded in 1976, Decision Research is dedicated to helping individuals and organizations understand and cope with the complex and often risky decisions of modern life. Decision Research is composed of twelve research scientists, in four different countries.

Our research is based on the premise that decisions should be guided by an understanding of how people think and how they value the potential outcomes—good and bad—of their decisions.

We receive funding from US government agencies (including the Environmental Protection Agency, National Science Foundation, National Institutes of Health, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration) and from private companies and philanthropic organizations.

Consult the website for more information about Decision Research.

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Now showing 1 - 20 of 187

Open Access
Self-Selected Interval Judgments Compared to Point Judgments: A Weight Judgment Experiment in the Presence of the Size-Weight Illusion
(PLOS, 2022-03-16) Gonzalez, Nichel; Svenson, Ola; Ekstrom, Magnus; Kristrom, Bengt; Nilsson, Mats E.
Measurements of human attitudes and perceptions have traditionally used numerical point judgments. In the present study, we compared conventional point estimates of weight with an interval judgment method. Participants were allowed to make step by step judgments, successively converging towards their best estimate. Participants estimated, in grams, the weight of differently sized boxes, estimates thus susceptible to the size-weight illusion. The illusion makes the smaller of two objects of the same weight, differing only in size, to be perceived as heavier. The self-selected interval method entails participants judging a highest and lowest reasonable value for the true weight. This is followed by a splitting procedure, consecutive choices of selecting the upper or lower half of the interval the individual estimates most likely to include the true value. Compared to point estimates, interval midpoints showed less variability and reduced the size-weight illusion, but only to a limited extent. Accuracy improvements from the interval method were limited, but the between participant variation suggests that the method has merit.
Open Access
The Fear of Personal Death and the Willingness to Commit to Organ Donation
(Sage, 2023-09) Kogut, Tehila; Pittarello, Andrea; Slovic, Paul
In three studies, with samples from different countries (the United States and Israel) and religions (Christians and Jews), we found that individual levels of fear of death significantly predicted lower willingness to register as organ donors (Studies 1 and 2). Moreover, after being asked about their organ donation status (i.e., whether they are registered as donors), fear of death significantly increased among unregistered people. This did not occur among registered people, who had already faced the decision to become donors in the past (Study 2). Finally, providing non-registered (non-religious) people with a defense strategy to manage their fear of death increased their willingness to sign an organ donation commitment, partially by increasing their feelings of hopefulness. The implications of these findings for increasing organ donation registration are discussed.
Open Access
Under pressure: conservation choices and the threat of species extinction
(Springer Nature B.V., 2021-05-03) Gregory, Robin; Kozak, Robert; Peterson St-Laurent, Guillaume; Nawaz, Sara; Satterfield, Terre; Hagerman, Shannon
Shifts in species ranges and viability introduced by climate change are creating difficult challenges for scientists and citizens. In many cases, the seriousness of threats to endangered species is forcing policy makers and resource managers to consider novel species protection strategies, either to complement or replace existing conservation approaches. This paper seeks to deepen understanding of public views on a range of conventional and novel management initiatives designed to protect species under the threat of extinction, based on results from an online survey conducted in the USA and Canada. Participants first selected a preferred intervention strategy and were then pre- sented with a series of scenarios, focused on protection of the endangered bristlecone pine, which allowed them to explore their willingness to shift to a new policy regime with a better chance of protecting the species. The use of a decision-pathways survey design allowed us to examine the strength of the nudge required to elicit a shift in their position and the reasoning underlying selection of a preferred management alternative. Results generally support the conclusion that, so long as a clear rationale is provided, there exists surprisingly widespread support for the adoption of novel management approaches to save threatened or endangered species even if this requires more intensive genetic and transformational interventions that are costly or ethically challenging.
Open Access
Characterizing public perceptions of social and cultural impacts in policy decisions
(Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2021-04-22) Dieckmann, Nathan F.; Gregory, Robin; Satterfield, Terre; Mayorga, Marcus; Slovic, Paul
Social scientists and community advocates have expressed con- cerns that many social and cultural impacts important to citizens are given insufficient weight by decision makers in public policy decision-making. In two large cross-sectional surveys, we exam- ined public perceptions of a range of social, cultural, health, eco- nomic, and environmental impacts. Findings suggest that valued impacts are perceived through an initial lens that highlights both tangibility (how difficult it is to understand, observe, and make changes to an impact) and scope (how broadly an impact applies). Valued impacts thought to be less tangible and narrower in scope were perceived to have less support by both decision makers and the public. Nearly every valued impact was perceived to have more support from the public than from decision makers, with the exception of three economic considerations (revenues, profits, and costs). The results also demonstrate that many valued impacts do not fit neatly into the single-category distinctions typically used as part of impact assessments and cost–benefit analyses. We pro- vide recommendations for practitioners and suggest ways that these results can foster improvements to the quality and defensi- bility of risk and impact assessments.
Open Access
People who are bad with numbers often find it harder to make ends meet – even if they are not poor
(The Conversation, 2021-12-20) Bruine de Bruin, Wandi; Slovic, Paul
People who are bad with numbers are more likely to experience financial difficulties than people who are good with numbers. That’s according to our analyses of the Lloyd’s Register Foundation World Risk Poll. In this World Risk Poll, people from 141 countries were asked if 10% was bigger than, smaller than or the same as 1 out of 10. Participants were said to be bad with numbers if they did not provide the correct answer – which is that 10% is the same as 1 out of 10. Our analyses found that people who answered incorrectly are often among the poorest in their country. Prior studies in the United States, United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Peru had also found that people who are bad with numbers are financially worse off. But our analyses of the World Risk Poll further showed that people who are bad with numbers find it harder to make ends meet, even if they are not poor.
Open Access
Low Numeracy is Associated with Poor Financial Well-being Around the World
(PLOS, 2021-11-22) Slovic, Paul; Bruine de Bruin, Wandi
Numeracy refers to the ability to use numbers, including converting percentages (e.g., 10%) into absolute frequencies (e.g., 1 in 10). Studies have suggested that numeracy is correlated to financial outcomes, suggesting its relevance to financial decisions. However, almost all research on numeracy has been conducted in high-income countries in Europe and North America. Our analyses suggest that low numeracy is much more common in low-income countries, thus potentially threatening the financial well-being of the world’s poorest. We analyzed data from the Lloyd’s Register Foundation World Risk Poll, which assessed basic numeracy in 141 countries, including 21 low-income, 34 lower middle income, 43 upper middle income, and 43 high-income countries. Numeracy was associated with being among the poorest 20% of one’s country, and with difficulty living on one’s income, even after accounting for income, education, and demographics. These findings underscore the importance of worldwide numeracy education.
Open Access
Norm Avoiders: The Effect of Optional Descriptive Norms on Charitable Donations
(Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 2021-03-01) Andersson, Per A.; Erlandsson, Arvid; Västfjäll, Daniel
Knowing the descriptive norm concerning others' prosociality could affect your behavior, but would you seek out or avoid such knowledge? This high-powered preregistered experiment explores the effect of both forced and optionally revealed descriptive norms on real monetary donations. These norms were established by learning the proportion of previous participants who had donated to a charitable organization that the respondent now was asked to donate to. For those learning about a norm, participants were more likely to donate if they were shown that a majority donates, compared with if they were shown that a minority donates. For the participants who were asked if they wanted to reveal the norm or not, we found that about half choose to reveal the norm. Those who avoided revealing the norm donated less frequently; both compared with revealers and with those who were forced to view the norm. However, these norm avoiders also donate a higher mean amount. Taken together, this hints at norm avoiders being composed of both altruistic and non-altruistic people, with fewer of those who are undecided. This type of norm avoidance may be more related to information avoidance motives rather than mere curiosity or reactance. The present findings can inspire further research into the motives of norm avoidance.
Open Access
Decision Making in Wildlife Management
(John Hopkins University Press, 2012) Riley, Shawn J.; Gregory, Robin S.
Wildlife professionals can more effectively manage species and social-ecological systems by fully considering the role that humans play in every stage of the process. Human Dimensions of Wildlife Management provides the essential information that students and practitioners need to be effective problem solvers. Edited by three leading experts in wildlife management, this textbook explores the interface of humans with wildlife and their sometimes complementary, often conflicting, interests. The book's well-researched chapters address conservation, wildlife use (hunting and fishing), and the psychological and philosophical underpinnings of wildlife management.
Open Access
When lives are in your hands: Dilemmas of the societal decision maker
(1990) Lichtenstein, Sarah; Gregory, Robin; Slovic, Paul; Wagenaar, Willem A.
A Societal Decision Maker (SDM) is a person who makes risky decisions on behalf of others. Most of the time, such decisions should be based on the wishes and beliefs pf the affected people. This paper explores a few cases in which it could be argued that the SDM, in making decision, should in good conscience disregard the desires of beliefs of the affected people. Several simplifying assumptions are made: The SDM uses decision analysis in making the decision; teh affected people speak with one voice on the matter under dispute; the SDM cannot delay the decision or otherwise avoid the disagreement; the SDM cannot delay the decision or otherwise avoid the disagreement; the SDM is motivated only to make the right decision; the SDM can effectuate an unpopular decision. In this context, the following dilemmas are discussed: (1) What if the people object to the use of decision analysis? (2) What if the people reject the axioms of decision analysis? (3) What risk attitude should the SDM adopt? (4) What concerns should be included in the analysis? (5) What if people are misinformed? (6) What if individual and societal perspectives differ? (7) Do people really want what they say they want? For some of these questions, we argue that the SDM should make decisions against the wishes of the people; for others, we are not sure how to resolve the dispute.
Open Access
Perceived Risk, Trust, and Nuclear Waste: Lessons from Yucca Mountain
(1993) Slovic, Paul; Layman, Mark; Flynn, James
Open Access
Perceived Risk and Attitudes Toward Nuclear Wastes: National and Nevada Perspectives
(1993) Slovic, Paul; Rosa, Eugene A.; Kunreuther, Howard; Desvousges, William H.
Open Access
Affect, Risk, and Decision Making
(2005) Slovic, Paul; Peters, Ellen; Finucane, Melissa; MacGregor, Donald G.
Risk is perceived and acted on in 2 fundamental ways. Risk as feelings refers to individuals' fast, instinctive, and intuitive reactions to danger. Risk as analysis brings logic, reason, and scientific deliberation to bear on risk management. Reliance on risk as feelings is described with "the affect heuristic." The authors trace the development of this heuristic across a variety of research paths. The authors also discuss some of the important practical implications resulting from ways that this heuristic impacts how people perceive and evaluate risk, and, more generally, how it influences all human decision making. Finally, some important implications of the affect heuristic for communication and decision making pertaining to cancer prevention and treatment are briefly discussed.
Open Access
Judged frequency of lethal events
(1978) Slovic, Paul; Lichtenstein, Sarah; Fischhoff, Baruch; Layman, Mark; Combs, Barbara
A series of experiments studied how people judge the frequency of death from various causes. The judgments exhibited a highly consistent but systematically biased subjective scale of frequency. Two kinds of bias were identified: (a) a tendency to overestimate small frequencies and underestimate larger ones, and (b) a tendency to exaggerate the frequency of some specific causes and to underestimate the frequency of others, at any given level of objective frequency. These biases were traced to a number of possible sources, including disproportionate exposure, memorability, or imaginability of various events. Subjects were unable to correct for these sources of bias when specifically instructed to avoid them. Comparisons with precious laboratory studies are discussed, along with methods for improving frequency judgments and the implications of the present findings for the management of societal hazards.
Open Access
Sex differences in the risks a person selects for himself and the risks he selects for someone else
(1967) Slovic, Paul; Weinstein, Malcolm S.; Lichtenstein, Sarah
102 undergraduates, working in pairs, selected bets for themselves and bets for the "other subject" to play. It was found that persons chose essentially the same probability of winning for the other person as for themselves, regardless of the sex of the other person. Women's choices were more conservative than men's choices.
Open Access
The psychometric study of risk perception
(1986) Slovic, Paul; Fischhoff, Baruch; Lichtenstein, Sarah
Open Access
Only new laws will spur seat-belt use [Editorial]
(1985) Slovic, Paul
Open Access
Images of disaster: Perception and acceptance of risks from nuclear power
(1979) Slovic, Paul; Lichtenstein, Sarah; Fischhoff, Baruch
Open Access
Informing people about risk
(1980) Slovic, Paul; Lichtenstein, Sarah; Fischhoff, Baruch
Designers of programs for informing the public about radiation hazards need to consider the difficulties inherent in communicating highly technical information about risk. To be effective, information campaigns must be buttressed by empirical research aimed at determining what people know, what they want to know, and how best to convey that information. Drawing upon studies of risk perception, this paper describes some of the problems that any information program must confront.
Open Access
Cue-How safe is safe enough?
(1983) Slovic, Paul; Fischhoff, Baruch
Open Access
Perceptions and acceptance of risk from radiation exposure in space flight
(1997) Slovic, Paul
There are a number of factors that influence how a person views a particular risk. These include whether the risk is judged to be voluntary and/or controllable, whether the effects are immediate or delayed, and the magnitude of the benefits that are to be gained as a result of being exposed to the risk. An important aspect of the last factor is whether those who suffer the risks are also those who stand to reap the benefits. The manner in which risk is viewed is also significantly influenced by the manner in which it is framed and presented. In short, risk does not exist in the world independent of our minds and cultures, waiting to be measured. Assessments of risk are based on models whose structure is subjective and associated evaluations are laden with assumptions whose inputs are dependent on judgments. In fact, subjectivity permeates every aspect of risk assessment. The assessment of radiation risks in space is no exception. The structuring of the problem includes judgments related to the probability, magnitude, and effects of the various types of radiation likely to be encountered and assumptions related to the quantitative relationship between dose and range of specific effects, all of which have associated uncertainties. For these reasons, there is no magic formula that will lead us to a precise level of acceptable risk from exposure to radiation in space. Acceptable risk levels must evolve through a process of negotiation that integrates a large number of social, technical, and economic factors. In the end, a risk that is deemed to be acceptable will be the outgrowth of the weighing of risks and benefits and the selection of the option that appears to be best.

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