Decision Research Faculty Works

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Browsing Decision Research Faculty Works by Subject "Analysis of variance"

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    Analyzing the expert judge: A descriptive study of a stockbroker's decision processes
    (Journal of Applied Psychology, 1969) Slovic, Paul
    This study illustrates an analysis-of-variance technique for describing the use of information by persons making complex judgments. Ss were two stockbrokers who rated the growth potential of stocks on the basis of 11 factors taken from Standard & Poor reports. The technique proved capable of providing a precise quantitative description of configural and nonconfigural information utilization. Each broker exhibited a substantial amount of configural processing. The technique appears to have promise for providing experts with insight into their own processes and for teaching and evaluating "student" judges.
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    Information processing, situation specificity, and the generality of risk-taking behavior
    (Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1972) Slovic, Paul
    An effort was made to construct two structurally similar risk-taking tasks in order to evaluate inter-task consistency of individual differences. Only the mode of response differed between tasks. In one task, subjects chose their preferred bet within each of a number of pairs of bets. In the other, they set selling prices for these same bets. A measure of the subject's preference for 'long shot' gambles was obtained from each response. Reliable individual differences were found for each measure. However, the inter-measure correlation was relatively low considering the high degree of similarity between tasks. It is argued that the two response modes triggered different methods of processing information about probabilities and payoffs in a way that perturbed individual differences and reduced inter-task consistency. Information-processing considerations may be one important component of the situation specificity prevalent in risk-taking behavior. These results imply that high correlations are unlikely between risk-taking measures in structurally different settings or between risk-taking and other behaviors.