Economics Theses and Dissertations

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Open Access
Adaptive Learning in Continuous-Time: Techniques and Theory
(University of Oregon, 2021-09-13) Lester, Chandler; McGough, Bruce
How we model individual’s expectations and predictions in economic models playsan essential role in economic outcomes. We can assume that individuals are well informed and developed nuanced views on the economy, meaning they understand and have detailed knowledge of economic parameters and economic models, or we can suppose individuals are observant and develop perceptions of the economy and make decisions based on available data. One method of including this level of realistic behavior in economic models isadaptive learning. In adaptive learning models, agents use simple forecasting rules to make predictions about future values of economic variables or the state of the economy. The work presented in this dissertation builds a framework for examining these dynamics in a high-frequency setting. It is important to extend these behavioral modeling techniques to this setting because increasing data are available at higher frequencies. This work combines existing continuous-time modeling techniques with emerging research from economics to develop modelings in which an agent can respond to high-frequency information. This dissertation demonstrates that complex high-frequency learning is possibleand has potential benefits and improvements over discrete-time counterparts. The dominant theme of this work is defining and mathematically developing a framework for examining bounded rationality in continuous-time models. In chapter two, basic exogenous adaptive rules are explored in a simple Ramsey Model setting. Chapter three introduces shadow-price learning and more complicated endogenous learning rules, including a derivation of continuous-time recursive least squares and the definition of a continuous-time mapping between an agent’s perceptions and actuality. Chapter four builds on the dynamics defined in chapter three by applying them to a linearized Real Business cycle model. We find that the continuous-time learning dynamics offer some improvements to the volatility of predictions.
Open Access
Aggregate Consequences of Innovation and Informality
(University of Oregon, 2014-09-29) Schipper, Tyler; Chakraborty, Shankha
The fundamental question in development economics is what causes some countries to become more prosperous than others. The literature, starting with Hall and Jones (1999), has identified differences in total factor productivity (TFP) as being the driver of cross-country income differences. I investigate policies that may give rise to these differences in TFP. I pay particular attention to the influence of informal economies in developing countries and how macroeconomic policies can distort firm-level incentives to innovate and operate formally. To address these questions, I construct a series of macroeconomic models which have several common elements. First, I model firm-level decisions with regard to innovation. These firm-level decisions ultimately give rise to differences in productivity across countries. Second, I embrace the role of firm heterogeneity in productivity to examine the dynamics of firm choice. Finally, through the use of computational methods, I simulate these models to evaluate the macroeconomic effects of policy distortions on firm-level decision making. Subject to the common elements above, each chapter answers a specific policy question. Chapter II asks whether size-based tax distortions can generate firm-size distributions often observed in developing countries. I find that a model with innovation and firm-level heterogeneity can explain the prevalence of large firms in response to tax distortions, but additional frictions are necessary to explain the ubiquity of small firms in most developing countries. It also illustrates tax distortions may have little impact on aggregate output while dramatically reducing innovation. Chapter III documents that tax rates can negatively affect growth by inducing firms to participate in the informal sector rather than the formal sector. Finally, Chapter IV shows how tax revenues are affected by changes in tax rates given the provision of a productive public good.
Open Access
An Appraisal of Liquidity Preference Theory
(University of Oregon, 1957-06) Du Payrat, Xavier Noel
Since the publication of Keynes General Theory, the subjects of liquidity and of liquidity preference have been extensively discussed in economic literature. Among the writers, the names of Harrod, Robertson, and Hicks are perhaps best known. However, the subject remains a controversial one. In particular, the degree to which interest is determines by liquidity factors is disputed, with Hicks taking a favorable position and Robertson a dissenting one. Harrod has discussed liquidity preference and other doctrines as alternatives among which he is apparent not completely willing to choose, since he says, "I am not prepared to reject Keynes' theory, even in the stripped form in which his critics present it, and untenable.
Open Access
The Background of the Expropriation of Oil in Mexico
(University of Oregon, 1942-06) Tallman, J. Woodson
Because it would be impossible in a thesis such as this to cover the entire story of expropriation in the detail necessary, this study places emphasis on presenting the all-important background. It is a story of the oil, peons and their masters, administrators who gave their country's riches over to imperialistic foreigners, of a people's attempt to keep their sovereignty and bring these riches under their control, and of the oil companies' battle to exploit, without regulations and taxes, what they had secured and spent large sums to develop.
Open Access
A Balanced Tax Program for Oregon
(University of Oregon, 1935-08) Rude, Charles H.
The writer believes that it will be conceded by all who study Oregon's tax history that at no time has a real concerted and whole-hearted attempt been made to unify the state's fiscal system. We have had committees, commissions, and boards galore-- and, by and large, these groups have done excellent work and have made reports that were valuable additions to the literature of taxation. But when the reports have been made to the legislature they have brought disappointingly meager results in the way of remedial legislation, and such changes as have been made have been mere patches imposed upon a dilapidated structure to meet the intermediate requirements.
Open Access
Behavioral Biases in General Equilibrium: Implications for Wealth Inequality and Human Capital Formation
(University of Oregon, 2018-09-06) Nighswander, Tristan; Chakraborty, Shankha
My research focuses on the integration of behavioral economics into well understood general equilibrium macroeconomic models populated by overlapping generations of heterogeneous agents. Specifically, I analyze the implications of populating model economies with present-biased agents who are finitely lived, subject to idiosyncratic labor income shocks, and heterogeneous in both exponential and present-biased discount factors. My primary goal is characterizing the contribution of behavioral biases towards resolving several issues in the literature pertaining to human capital investment and aggregate wealth inequality. Further, the inclusion of present bias in carefully calibrated model economies allows me to rationalize empirical differences in consumption, wealth, and education that arise between observationally similar households that models of homogeneous, exponential discounters are unable to match.
Open Access
Blue Sky Legislation in Theory and Practice
(University of Oregon, 1923-06-11) Hoeber, Ralph C.
There are at least three theories of the origin of the term “blue sky” movement. One theory holds that the movement was so christened because it “designed to clear away the clouds and fogs from the simple investor’s horizon”; according to another theory the origin of the term lies in the attempt to curb operators whose promises are “as limitless as the blue sky”; a third theory believes that the term alludes to the fact that the blue sky movement aims to stop the swindling operations of promoters who offer as security nothing but the blue sky above. However valuable and promising the blue sky is to mankind, it has no economic value to the individual. Which account the reader prefers to accept is, of course, immaterial; only let him beware of confusing the term “blue sky law” with the so-called “blue laws”, as the latter have for their purpose the observance of the Sabbath by business houses. If the metaphor “blue sky movement” is neither accurate nor scientific, it at least is picturesque and suggestive. Just what it suggests, and what it involves, will be the subject of this thesis.
Open Access
Causes and Consequences of the Coal Market Decline
(University of Oregon, 2020-09-24) Dlouhy, Curtis; Wilson, Wesley
Fossil fuel markets have formed the backbone of commerce in the United States for the better part of the last century. Whether it be through the extraction of raw materials, the refinement for future use, their use in the transportation industry, or burning them for heat or electricity, fossil fuels have become a necessary resource in the post-industrial economy. While fossil fuels are indeed essential in many sectors, their roles have shifted due to changes in technology, public opinion and public policy. An unfortunate byproduct of using fossil fuel use is a host of harmful pollutants in the form of sulfur, nitrogen oxides, and carbon. Due to their dirty nature, policy makers have tried to disincentivize fossil fuels or reduce their emissions. Starting in the 1970s, the United States began to reward reductions in fossil fuel use and the use of emissions-reduction technology through the Clean Air Act, its many amendments, and many other regional environmental policies. While the US is still very dependent on fossil fuels nearly 50 years after the institution of these original policies, the composition of fossil fuels used, and industries servicing users of fossil fuels have changed dramatically. In this dissertation, I discuss my research investigating how the changing roles of fossil fuel have affected coal mining markets, electricity generation, and rail transportation. In my first chapter, I develop a model of sunk cost hysteresis in the coal mining industry to discuss how the rise of natural gas and environmental regulations have affected coal mining operations. In chapter two, I discuss how a carbon tax shifts the dispatch order of fossil fuel electricity generators and the effect that this redispatching has on seasonal fossil fuel use. In chapter three, I discuss how the decline in coal mining and the diminished preference for coal-powered electricity affects rail rates and rail revenues from transporting coal.
Open Access
Choice difficulty and risk perceptions in environmental economics
(University of Oregon, 2010-09) Duquette, Eric Nigel, 1978-
Economists typically assume that individuals behave in accordance with rational choice theory. In practice, however, individual behavior can deviate from the predictions of models founded upon basic economic theory. The extent to which these deviations are important to individual decision-making in environmental economics, and thus to the development of sound environmental policies, is not fully understood. The objective in this dissertation research is to investigate potential deviations from rational choice behavior in some environmental economics contexts and to identify their relevance to environmental policy. Chapter I uses a stated-preference survey for the valuation of environmental health-risk reductions in which respondents rate the subjective difficulty of each key choice they are asked to consider. Existing literature identifies many potential categories of biases in the empirically estimated valuation of non-market goods in stated-preference research. One potential source of bias stems from the "objective complexity" of the choice scenario. I find that existing objective measures of choice set complexity do not fully explain subjective choice difficulty ratings in this valuation survey. Instead, subjective difficulty appears to result from the interplay among objective complexity, preferences, and cognitive resource constraints. In Chapter II, I consider the possible consequences of choice difficulty from the standpoint of neuroeconomics. Within the scope of neuroeconomics, one can identify some neurobiological correlates of economic decision-making activity. I study the apparent effects of choice difficulty on the neurobiological encoding of individuals' value assessments. Information from this study provides a neurological basis for deviations from simple economic theory based on conventional models of rational choice. Chapter III examines risk perceptions that may influence individuals' decisions to migrate within the U.S. to reduce potential health and economic risks related to climate change. My analysis treats historical patterns of migration among counties as a function of varying spatial and temporal patterns in tornado activity, along with other spatially and temporally delineated variables intended to capture the evolution of subjective perceptions of these tornado risks. Results suggest that the perception of risk from extreme weather events can have a small but statistically discernible effect on migration behavior across sociodemographic groups for both out-migrants and in-migrants.
Open Access
Choosing Health Insurance: Public, Private or None?
(University of Oregon, 2012) Clinton, Chelsea; Clinton, Chelsea; Wilson, Wesley
I estimate two models of consumer health insurance choices where individual attributes and e.g., income, age, gender, cost, etc. affect qualification for specific programs e.g., Medicaid and Medicare, but also affect the choices individuals make. From these results, I assess how these attributes affect health insurance choices using the 2008 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. I then use these results to predict how individual health insurance choices change with the implementation of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) in 2014. My predictions estimate that more 50 percent of those who become eligible for Medicaid under ACA will switch to Medicaid or choose to have both Private and Medicaid insurance.
Open Access
Commercial Bank Liquidity Behavior During the 1954—1958 Business Cylce
(University of Oregon, 1962-08) Young, Theodore James
Due to the rather unique character of commercial banking as a business, with the very large proportion of liabilities payable on demand, the necessity of maintaining an adequate level of liquidity assumes more importance in banking than in other types of businesses. The obligation which a bank must be prepared to meet above all else in that of depositors’ claims for withdrawal of their funds whenever they choose. A bank may temporarily refuse worthwhile requests for credit, or fail occasionally to earn a normal returns for its stockholders and still remain in business with the expectation that the situation will improve. But once it finds itself unable to raise the funds with which to meet its depositors’ claims for payment, it is liable to face extinction as a business enterprise.
Open Access
A Comparison of Medieval and Modern Price Fixing
(University of Oregon, 1935-09) Greer, Virginia Leonard
History should not be regarded as the “dry bones closed quote of the past, unreal, and of no significance for the present. Governments in the past have faced serious economic crises, unemployment, agricultural discontent, burdensome taxation and depression. While it cannot, with any degree of exactitude, be said that history repeats itself, because of the innumerable factors which serve to make each historical event unique in itself nevertheless man's proposed solution for the changing economic and social problems offers little variation. The problems of agriculture and unemployment relief, the issues bearing upon inflation, a “managed” currency, and price fixing all sound familiar. They are present day economic problems of the first order, but ancient history records them as problems of antiquity. Not only are the natures of the problems similar but the attempted solutions are similar as well even though history has demonstrated that one of the attempted solutions are unworkable. The philosopher, Hagel, has pessimistically summarized the situation in his statement that, “-- what experience and history teach is this,-- that peoples and governments never have learned anything from history, or acted on principles deducted from it.”
Open Access
A Critique of the Different Methods of Handling the National Debt
(University of Oregon, 1950-07) Cordiner, Jane
The total direct and guaranteed debt of the United States government stands at $256 billion. This large national liability poses problems to which the public expects its elected officials to find adequate answers. Will huge national debt affect adversely the financing of another emergency? Should we increase it to maintain an economy of abundance and full employment? Can we use it as an instrument to regulate and manage the oscillations of the business cycle? If we choose to use it as a tools for regulating prices or employment or both what methods of manipulation would be desirable? These questions are not easily answered by any thoughtful person. Most of the recommendations concerning debt management fall under three general headings.
Open Access
The Cross Purposes of Some of the Economic Policies of the Roosevelt Administration from 1933 to 1936
(University of Oregon, 1942-06) Winestone, Robert Louis
With the Roosevelt Administration still a reality rather than an historical fact, it is with great difficulty that emotionalism can be avoided in an attempt to study it. The policies of this Administration have been such a distinct departure from what we Americans have heretofore considered to be the function of government in economic matters that we must readjust our thinking to accommodate such changes. This should not be considered an insurmountable difficulty. Every age has been faced with change and motion, but to accept an unscholarly approach for this reason is to admit that no scholarly approach to any problem is possible. Even though certain feelings of this kind enter into this discussion, benefits may come from an attempt at rationalism. Some individual in the future may be able to gather together the facts to bring understanding of these events.
Open Access
Culture and Economic Growth
(University of Oregon, 2015-08-18) Thompson, Jonathan; Chakraborty, Shankha
The most fundamental question in economics is what causes some countries to prosper. An emerging literature has focused on the role of culture in determining growth. I interpret culture as "the collective programming of the mind which distinguishes the members of one group or category of people from those of another," following Hofstede. I focus on the role of culture in determining economic decision making and cooperation, with an emphasis on how cross-cultural differences in how strangers are viewed may influence economic activity by narrowing the scope of interaction. I use modern econometric techniques and neoclassical economic models to formalize the role of culture in economic decision making and test the power of culture to explain cross-country differences in long run growth paths. Throughout my research I assume that agents behave rationally but that culture influences the expectations or beliefs they have about different activities. Subject to the common elements above, each chapter answers a slightly different question. Chapter II focuses on how colonial history may influence decisions over risk-taking in certain countries, leading to a dearth of entrepreneurial activity. Chapter III focuses on how interactions across and between cultural groups may explain the decision of minority immigrant groups to assimilate or segregate over time and how public policy may influence this decision making. Chapter IV looks at the effect of culture through the media of trust and government. Using an instrumental variables strategy, I ask which is more important to economic development, contract quality or interpersonal trust, and find strong evidence that interpersonal trust is more important.
Open Access
Demand, Market Structure, Entry, and Exit in Airline Markets
(University of Oregon, 2014-09-29) Mahoney, Daniel; Wilson, Wesley
The airline industry is a major driver of economic activity in the United States, accounting for over $1 trillion annually. In this work, I study the airline industry and analyze several key economic issues facing the industry. I examine the industry from several different angles, looking at consumer behavior, firm behavior, and market performance. The body of the dissertation comprises three essays, with each essay focusing on one of the aforementioned facets of the industry. The first essay is a study of consumer demand, using aggregate data to estimate consumer utility functions and identify preferences for airports in large, multi-airport markets. Using these utility functions, I produce tables of cross-airline and cross-airport elasticities, measuring how consumers would be expected to substitute between airports in response to airline price increases and substitute between airlines in response to airport price increases. The second essay is a study of market structure and pricing. I look at changes in market structure over a 20 year time period, focusing on the price effects of entry, exit, and mergers. By looking at both the direct effects as well as the subsequent effects on market concentration, I find that there is tremendous heterogeneity in the effects of these events across markets. The final essay is a model of firm entry and exit decisions in a network environment. I use this model to analyze firm decisions in the airline industry. I find that the size and geographic distribution of firms' networks plays an important role in their decision to further expand or contract, as firms with larger networks are more likely to expand, while firms with smaller networks are more likely to contract. Together, this body of work presents an in-depth analysis of the economic issues surrounding the airline industry. This dissertation includes both previously published and co-authored material.
Open Access
The Economic Development of Canada 1849—1914
(University of Oregon, 1964-03) Shenk, Wilbert Ray
Along with the other nations of the Western Hemisphere, the antecedents of the Canadian economy may be traced to Europe. The area which eventually became Canada was a part of the mercantile empires of both France and Great Britain. The eventual triumph of Great Britain over France in gaining control of the territory lying to the north of the United States was due to the types of policies each followed. British mercantile policy was better controlled and coordinated and in the long run proved to be more suited to the type of resource exploitation both nations were carrying out in Canada. The English succeeded in establishing sufficient settlements of people who could produce food supplies by those engaged in producing raw materials being exported to the mother country. By contrast, the French devoting their resources too completely to fur production, failed to establish successful agricultural settlements which could serve as a provisioned to the trader, trapper, fisherman and lumberman. Without a supply of basic foodstuffs, attempts to expand the "economy" sere severely handicapped.
Open Access
The Economic Effects of the Progressive Income and Inheritance Taxes
(University of Oregon, 1939-06) Tyson, Alfred S.
The scope of the present study has necessarily been limited, so it was thought advisable to study the present income tax laws, with special attention to the federal personal income tax law with its highly graduated rates. The income tax is a newcomer into the field of taxation, especially when compared with such taxes as the property tax and customs cuties. It was not until 1798 that the first income tax was brought into use, at which time it was introduced into England as an emergency measure in connection with the wars of that period. It was discontinued in 1816 and was not again resorted to until 1842, since when it has been a permanent part of the British revenue system. Other European states adopted this form of taxalater, but it was not until 1911 that much use was made of the United States. A few states enacted legislation as early as 1840, but there were no laws of significance until after Wisconsin passed its law in 1911. The federal government also made use of an income tax during the Civil War, but it was replaced in 1872. This, like the first English income tax, was not intended to be a permanent tax but merely and emergency issue.
Open Access
The Economics of Commercial Lobbying
(University of Oregon, 2012) Groll, Thomas; Groll, Thomas; Ellis, Christopher
This dissertation addresses the economic behavior and political influence activities by lobbyists today by examining the existence, mechanisms, and welfare implications of commercial lobbying activities and their optimal regulation. In the second chapter of this dissertation, a novel model of lobbying is presented that explains the behavior of commercial lobbying firms (such as the so-called K-Street lobbyists of Washington, D.C.). In contrast to classical special interest groups, commercial lobbying firms represent a variety of clients and are not directly affected by policy outcomes. They are hired by citizens to advocate policy proposals to politicians that are beneficial to the citizens but also have social implications. Using a model with a market for lobbying services and agency relationships between lobbyists and policymakers it can be shown why commercial lobbying firms exist. It can also be shown that self-interested policymakers, who observe lobbying activities, may employ commercial lobbying firms in a socially inefficient manner. In the third chapter of this dissertation, the analysis examines the effective regulation of commercial lobbying activities and focuses on the endogenous choice of regulatory institutions. The analysis uses the model of commercial lobbying presented in the second chapter. I derive the institutional conditions under which a market outcome can be first-best as well as the conditions under which a first-best institution will be self-stable. One result is that current regulations may fail to be effective and cannot limit lobbyists' and policymakers' incentives to substitute financial contributions for the socially beneficial acquisition of information. Additional results explain why endogenous reforms may or may not occur. In the fourth chapter of this dissertation, the analysis uses a dynamic model of commercial lobbying with lobbyists who undertake unobservable investigation efforts and promise financial contributions. It is shown that repeated relationships with lobbyists simplify a policymaker's information and contracting problem and help policymakers to escape a "cheap talk" lobbying game. The welfare implications of these interactions depend on whether the policymakers' information or contracting problem predominates. Further, the policymaker's information problem may actually improve welfare outcomes. Similarly, financial contributions may also improve welfare outcomes. This dissertation includes unpublished co-authored material.
Open Access
Economics of Environmental and Public Health Policies
(University of Oregon, 2024-01-09) Zhang, Shan; Zou, Eric
This dissertation is comprised of three papers that investigate the effects of recycling policy, pollution, and public health policy. The first paper examines the impact of China's waste import ban on U.S. polltion emissions at the national and state level. The second paper studies the distributional effect of China's waste import policy on waste transfers across local communities in California. The third paper investigates people's willingness to pay for public health policies to protect the health of a community during the COVID-19 pandemic. Chapter 1 provides a comprehensive overview of each dissertation chapter. Chapter 2 analyzes the effect of China's Green Sword policy (waste import ban) on U.S. emissions at the national and state level. Using the synthetic control method, the study finds that many states experienced significant increases in methane emissions after the policy took effect, with the total U.S. methane emissions from the waste industry increasing by 10\%. The study also finds a positive correlation between the waste trade each state had with China before the ban and the increase in emissions after the policy, suggesting that the states that relied more on trading recyclable wastes with China were more affected by the policy. Chapter 3 examines the effects of the Green Sword policy on the relocation of solid waste pollution across local communities in California. Using detailed waste transfer data from California, the study finds that Black communities received more waste transfers before the policy, but after the policy, relatively more waste pollution relocated to lower-income White communities. The study identifies land costs as the primary explanation for this distributional effect. Chapter 4 (co-authored with Trudy Ann Cameron) utilizes a choice-experiment survey of U.S. residents to determine people's willingness to pay for public policies to reduce illnesses and premature deaths in their communities. The study estimates people's ex-ante willingness to pay to avoid the actual monthly totals of COVID-19 cases and deaths from March 2020 to April 2021 by county and month. The estimated aggregate willingness to pay across the U.S. adult population during this period is about 3 trillion dollars.