Urbanism Next

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Urbanism Next is the source for information about the potential impacts of emerging technologies — autonomous vehicles, E-commerce and the sharing economy— on city development, form, and design and the implications for sustainability, resiliency, equity, the economy, and quality of life.

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Open Access
2018 Conference Flyer
(2018) Urbanism Next Center, University of Oregon
Open Access
2018 Urbanism Next: Welcoming Presentation
(2018-03-05) Larco, Nico
Open Access
2019 Urbanism Next Conference Program
(Urbanism Next, 2019-05)
Welcome to the 2019 National Urbanism Next Conference! This last year has seen dramatic advancements and serious setbacks in new mobility, autonomous vehicles, e-commerce, and the sharing economy. We have seen significant growth in new mobility services and devices, such as e-scooters, and in the range of companies offering these services. We have seen e-commerce continue to thrive, and we have seen cities raise their level of engagement with the private sector. We have also seen autonomous vehicles lose their unbridled luster and near-term inevitability. While the advancements should motivate us to better understand how to shape these innovations toward the public good, the setbacks should be seen as an opportunity to better prepare for the changes that are coming.
Open Access
Accessing Opportunities for Household Provisioning Post-COVID-19
(Transportation and Research Education Center (TREC), 2022-10) Clifton, Kelly; Carder, Paula; Nonnamaker, Max; Howell, Amanda; Currans, Kristina; Abou-Zeid, Gabriella
In this project, we used a mixed-methods study to collect critical information to evaluate the extent to which people modified their shopping behavior, either by choice or necessity, to meet their provisioning needs during the COVID-19 crisis and the following recovery. First, four waves of a cross-sectional survey were administered online to a representative sample of households in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Oregon, and Washington. This longitudinal, comparative study responded directly to a critical research gap and advanced behavioral science by providing a rich survey dataset to support and test theories of behavioral change and technology adoption. Second, focus groups were conducted with older adults in Oregon to discuss their arc of technology adoption for grocery shopping. Focus groups were also conducted with two sets of mentors who provide assistance to family members and friends with online food purchases to understand what kinds of interventions might be necessary to broaden access to e-commerce and delivery platforms for vulnerable populations. This report presents high-level descriptive statistics from these surveys comparing results by wave and/or by state. The findings from the focus groups with older adults and mentors are also described. The findings of this research are critical for emergency planning but also for understanding the ever-changing mechanism used to access retail and service opportunities (whether in-person vs. online), and the opportunities for future interventions to remedy barriers to accessing food that are relevant after the pandemic recovery.
Open Access
Autonomous Vehicles: A Guide for Cities
(University of Oregon, 2023-11) Bellows, Story; Ricks, Karina; Clark, Erin; Bridgford, Camron; de Uquijo, Carolina; Larco, Nico; Götschi, Thomas
While autonomous vehicles are still experimental and nascent in many corners of the U.S., the same kind of unguided tectonic shift seen with the introduction of the automobile nearly a century ago is possible. Autonomous Vehicles: A Guidebook for Cities was created in response to cities seeking to manage and influence autonomous vehicle (AV) pilots and deployments happening on their streets, as well as cities trying to prepare for these pilots. The Guidebook offers considerations, tools, and examples of various ways to manage effectively autonomous vehicle deployments.
Open Access
AVs in the Pacific Northwest: Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Time of Automation, Baseline Report
(University of Oregon, 2018-08) Larco, Nico; Howell, Amanda; Lewis, Rebecca; Steckler, Becky; Clark, Joanna; Corey, Evan; Hurley, Peter
The University of Oregon conducted research for the cities of Portland, Seattle, and Vancouver to understand how the deployment of autonomous vehicles may impact greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Based on the range of possible outcomes, the cities hope to better understand the policies and programmatic choices available to mitigate negative impacts of AVs and ensure that they can accomplish the goals stated in their climate action, land use, and transportation plans. By working together, each city hopes to learn from each other—as well as cities from across North America—to achieve their climate-related goals. This report is the first of a two-phase project, both funded by the Bullitt Foundation. The Bullitt Foundation provided a grant to CNCA/USDN and subsequently to the Urbanism Next Center at the University of Oregon to fund research related to the impact of AVs on the Cities of Portland, Seattle, and Vancouver and their ability to successfully implement their climate action plans to reduce GHG emissions. Phase II is supported by a grant directly to the Urbanism Next Center and builds on Phase I to examine in greater detail a limited number of strategies and actions that the Cities could incorporate into their new mobility1 strategies.
Open Access
COVID-19 - Impacts on Cities and Suburbs: Key Takeaways Across Multiple Sectors
(University of Oregon, 2020-09) Kaplowitz, Grace; Larco, Nico; Howell, Amanda; Swift, Tiffany
How is the COVID-19 pandemic changing urban living? In this paper, we explore the landscape of COVID-19 disruptions to date on land use and real estate, urban design, building design, transportation, e-commerce and retail, and goods delivery. We also highlight the longer-term questions and potential ongoing impacts COVID-19 might have on the built environment.
Open Access
COVID-19 Impacts on Cities and Suburbs: Impacts to the Urbanism Next Framework
(University of Oregon, 2020-09) Kaplowitz, Grace; Larco, Nico; Howell, Amanda; Swift, Tiffany
Before the pandemic, Urbanism Next developed a framework organizing the disruptions to cities caused by emerging transportation technologies on land use, urban design, building design, transportation, and real estate. COVID-19 has disrupted the trajectory of these emerging technologies and will, in turn, change some our original assumptions. This paper revisits the original Urbanism Next framework, taking into account the cascading impacts of the pandemic. This report is one of two reports completed by Urbanism Next on the impacts of Covid-19.
Open Access
Emerging Technologies and Cities: Assessing the Impacts of New Mobility on Cities
(National Institute for Transportation and Communities, 2020-01) Steckler, Becky; Lewis, Rebecca
The purpose of this report is to analyze potential impacts and offer recommendations for the cities of Gresham and Eugene, OR, to understand the potential impacts of new mobility technologies—with an emphasis on autonomous vehicles (AVs)—and prepare a policy and programmatic response. While Gresham and Eugene are case studies, it provides mid-sized communities information on how new mobility services could impact their communities and what they can do about it, from broad strategies to specific policy responses. While this work focuses on the various new mobility and goods delivery services that currently exist, the framework that is discussed here is also applicable to emerging technologies that haven’t yet been introduced, such as autonomous vehicles (AVs).
Open Access
Emerging Technologies – Micromobility
(Urbanism Next, 2020-01) Urbanism Next, University of Oregon
This is a fact sheet suitable for use as a printed handout on Urbanism Next's topline research findings regarding micromobility. This is a distillation of the micromobility research found on the Navigating Emerging Technologies and Urban Spaces (NEXUS) online clearinghouse produced and maintained by Urbanism Next.
Open Access
Emerging Technologies – Transportation Network Companies (TNCs)
(Urbanism Next, 2020-01) Urbanism Next, University of Oregon
This is a fact sheet suitable for use as a printed handout on Urbanism Next's topline research findings regarding transportation network companies (TNCs). This is a distillation of the research on TNCs found on the Navigating Emerging Technologies and Urban Spaces (NEXUS) online clearinghouse produced and maintained by Urbanism Next.
Open Access
A Framework for Shaping the Deployment of Autonomous Vehicles and Advanced Equity Outcomes: Knight Autonomous Vehicle Initiative
(University of Oregon, 2021-01) Steckler, Becky; Howell, Amanda; Larco, Nico; Kaplowitz, Grace
Just a year or so ago, it seemed that fleets of autonomous vehicles (AVs) would soon be deployed on city streets providing a robo-taxi service like Uber and Lyft—just without a driver. The timeline for commercial deployments of AVs has been significantly delayed by the technological challenges associated with safely deploying driverless vehicles, as well as by the COVID-19 pandemic. Even during the pandemic, however, automakers and technology companies continued to conduct research and test a range of autonomous vehicles—freight trucks on freeways, passenger vehicles on city streets, and smaller vehicles transporting goods on streets, in bike lanes, and on sidewalks—to develop commercial use cases and prepare for deployment. AV technology has the potential to have major impacts on cities, both positive and negative. AVs could increase safety and help reduce congestion and pollution, but they could very well exacerbate existing inequities if they are simply layered on to the problematic and car-dependent transportation ecosystems that exist today. Chances are that AVs will be deployed eventually, and many states are already enacting legislation that preempts local decision making. As a result, communities across the United States understand that they need to plan for AVs before they arrive in order to maximize the potential benefits. The current moment provides an opportunity for the public sector to be proactive in shaping the deployment, applying lessons learned from the deployment of transportation network companies (TNCs), e-scooters, and other new mobility technologies. With support from the Knight Foundation, the cities of Detroit, Pittsburgh, San Jose, and Miami-Dade County in Florida—the “cohort”—are actively working to understand how AVs can be deployed in ways that reflect community input and meet local needs. They are working with residents, employees, and business and community leaders to better understand mobility needs and how AV deployment can help achieve community goals.
Open Access
The Future of Public Spaces and Placemaking: Summary of Findings from the Knight + Urbanism Next Portland Workshop
(University of Oregon, 2020-06) Crowther, Jean; Howell, Amanda; Larco, Nico; Reid, Ted; Ross, Lynn; Stewart, Mary; Stoll, Matthew; Surguine, Marsie
The Urbanism Next Center at the University of Oregon, in partnership with Alta Planning + Design, Spirit for Change, and Metro hosted the Future of Public Spaces and Placemaking workshop on January 24th, 2020. This one-day workshop, supported by the Knight Foundation, brought together a wide range of community activists, government officials, policymakers, urbanists, planners, designers, technology representatives, and other professionals to share ideas and concerns, and to discuss emerging technologies such as new mobility, Mobility as a Service (MaaS), autonomous vehicles (AVs), and e-commerce, and their impacts on urban space and placemaking. The workshop concluded with a site-specific charrette aimed at investigating how communities can best prepare for these changes and adapt their public spaces to create places that are resilient, dynamic, equitable, and sustainable.
Open Access
How Are Uber/Lyft Shaping Municipal On-Street Parking Revenue?
(Social Science Research Network, 2020-11-02) Clark, Benjamin Y.; Brown, Anne
Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) will impose challenges on cities that are currently difficult to fully envision yet critical to begin addressing. This research makes an incremental step toward quantifying the impacts that AVs by examining current associations between transportation network company (TNC) trips—often viewed as a harbinger of AVs—and parking revenue in Seattle. Using Uber and Lyft trip data combined with parking revenue and built environment data, this research models projected parking revenue in Seattle. Results demonstrate that total revenue generated in each census tract will continue to increase at current rates of TNC tripmaking; parking revenue will, however, start to decline if or when trips levels are about 4.7 times higher than the average 2016 level. The results also indicate that per-space parking revenue is likely to increase by about 2.2 percent for each 1,000 additional TNC trips taken if no policy changes are taken. The effects on revenue will vary quite widely by neighborhood, suggesting that a one-size-fits-all policy may not be the best path forward for cities. Instead, flexible and adaptable policies that can more quickly respond (or better yet, be proactive) to changing AV demand will be better suited at managing the changes that will affect parking revenue.
Open Access
How Will Autonomous Vehicles Change Local Government Budgeting and Finance? Case Studies of On-Street Parking, Curb Management, and Solid Waste Collection
(Portland State University, 2019-05) Clark, Benjamin Y.; Transportation Research and Education Center, Portland State University
The challenges that Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) will impose upon cities are both currently difficult to fully envision and critical to begin to address. This report makes an incremental step toward quantifying the impacts that AVs will have and provides insight on how cities may be able to adjust policies to avoid mistakes made in with changes to the transportation modalities in earlier eras. This report is an examination of parking, curb zones, and government service changes in the context of AVs. Given that there are very few actual AVs on the road, the analysis in this report is an attempt to project what we might see, using the current phenomenon as starting points. The report uses a mix of econometric modeling, cost accounting, and case studies to illustrate these projections.
Open Access
The Impacts of Autonomous Vehicles and E-Commerce: On Local Government Budgeting and Finance
(2017-08) Clark, Benjamin Y.; Larco, Nico; Mann, Roberta F.
Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are already being used and their proliferation is inevitable. AVs have the potential to fundamentally alter transportation systems by averting deadly crashes, providing critical mobility to the elderly and disabled, increasing road capacity, saving fuel, and lowering emissions (Fagnant and Kockelman 2015). Eighteen states and the District of Columbia have enacted legislation regarding AVs1, and the governors of four other states have signed executive orders about AVs2 (National Conference of State Legislatures 2017). In 2017 there were 33 states that had introduced AV legislation, up from 20 in 2016 (National Conference of State Legislatures 2017). As of June 2, 2017, there were 31 companies that had received permits from the California DMV to test autonomous vehicles, and the list is getting longer each month (California Department of Motor Vehicles 2017). In Berlin, Deutsche Bahn, Germany’s largest train and bus operator, is testing a driverless twelve-passenger shuttle bus (Scott 2017). Over 20 pilot or existing AV public transport programs have taken place in Europe. And the most recent AV testing permit recipient in California is a private shuttle bus operator— Bauer’s Intelligent Transportation (California Department of Motor Vehicles 2017). Much has been written about the technical challenges of integrating autonomous vehicles into traffic patterns, but to date, there has been little consideration of the significant secondary impacts that AVs present. This project aims to fill that gap. AVs have the potential to transform cities – but whether the impact is positive or not depends on how the AVs are used. If AVs use clean fuels, are used for shared rides, and become an on-demand service rather than an owned product, cities and society may benefit. Consumer-owned cars are inefficient and underused assets – most are used for less than one hour per day (OECD 2015), sitting idle for about 95 of their life, and about 10 percent of the average American’s budget goes to the cost of purchasing and fueling private vehicles (Bureau of Labor Statistics 2016). AVs will impact land use planning, transit use, government revenues, and may exacerbate societal inequality by reducing the viability of existing public transportation services. The goal of this white paper is to consider the impact of AVs on municipal budgets. AVs create a “potential rat’s nest of a budgeting challenge” (Fung 2016). This paper seeks to begin the process of untangling that rat’s nest, and provide the foundation for future phases of the project that will consider potential additional revenue sources to fund the infrastructure changes that may come from the integration of AVs as well as land use planning implications.
Open Access
Learning From the Past for a Better City of the Future
(2018-03-05) Tumlin, Jeffrey
To accommodate the last mobility revolution-- 1929 to 1933 -- we created the regulatory framework for the arrival of the automobile, including criminalizing walking for the first time, and putting into law AAA's marketing term, "jaywalking." As a result of that regulatory prioritization of convenience over safety, 3.5 million Americans have died by automobile since 1929, nearly seven times those killed in wars. The current regulatory trajectory for autonomous vehicles has us point straight toward Susan Shaheen's "Hell" scenario. What do cities, states, and well-intentioned technology companies need to be doing today to help us use this new technology for the public good?
Open Access
Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies on City Form and Development
(Urbanism Next, 2020-01) Howell, Amanda; Tan, Huijun; Brown, Anne; Schlossberg, Marc; Karlin-Resnick, Josh; Lewis, Rebecca; Anderson, Marco; Larco, Nico; Tierney, Gerry; Carlton, Ian; Kim, James; Steckler, Becky
Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are a near future reality and the implications of AVs on city development and urban form, while potentially widespread and dramatic, are not well understood. In addition, there are other fundamentally disruptive technological forces undergoing simultaneous rapid development and deployment, including the introduction of new mobility technologies and the associated paradigm shift to thinking of mobility as a service, as well as the continued growth of e-commerce and the related rise in goods delivery. The purpose of this report is to examine how these forces of change are impacting, or will likely impact transportation, land use, urban design, and real estate, and what the implications may be for equity, health, the economy,the environment, and governance. Our aim was to identify key research areas that will assist in evidence-based decision making for planners, urban designers, and developers to address this critical paradigm shift. We identified key research questions in land use, urban design, transportation, and real estate that will rely on the expertise of these disciplines and lay the foundation for a research agenda examining how AVsand new mobility may impact the built environment. This report describes the first order impacts, or the broad ways that the form and function of cities are already being impacted by the forces of change identified above.
Open Access
Navigating New Mobility: Policy Approaches for Cities
(Urbanism Next, 2019-10) Steckler, Becky
This purpose of this report is to help the cities of Gresham, Oregon and Eugene, Oregon understand the potential impacts of new mobility technologies—with an emphasis on autonomous vehicles (AVs)—and prepare a policy response. While Gresham and Eugene are case studies, it provides communities of all sizes information on how new mobility services could impact their communities and what they can do about it, from broad strategies to specific policy responses. While this work focuses on the various new mobility and goods delivery services that currently exist, the framework that is discussed here is also applicable to emerging technologies that haven’t yet been introduced, such as AVs.
Open Access
New Mobility in the Right-of-Way
(University of Oregon, 2019-03) Howell, Amanda; Larco, Nico; Lewis, Rebecca; Steckler, Becky
This report categorizes and summarizes efforts that are already underway in cities across the world to rethink curb management, to outline the key takeaways from the one-day workshop that involved city staff from Portland, Seattle, and Vancouver, and to identify major research gaps.