Raising the Cost of Affordability: Guaranteed Tuition Programs and the Economic Value of Certainty
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Date
2016-06
Authors
Schlegel, Helena
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
University of Oregon
Abstract
The issues of affordability and access to higher education are widespread among
college campuses and throughout the national political debate. As institutions attempt to
combat rising tuition, many schools have implemented guaranteed, or fixed rate, tuition
programs (GTP). These programs serve as a promise to students, pledging their tuition
will not rise throughout their degree path, and participating institutions assert that these
programs are successful at providing an affordable education. I investigated these
claims by analyzing what the factors are to implement a guaranteed program, and the
impact of these programs on outcome variables such as completion.
Through available institution and student information, I compiled a list of the 140
public and private institutions that have implemented a guaranteed program. With this
base list, I presented details and criteria of each unique program through data available
on college websites and surveying enrollment and finance offices of participating
universities. I relied on university data derived from the College Scorecard Report,
including but not limited to enrollment rates, retention rates, state appropriation, student
identifiers, and net price. Using a variation on a time series regression, and data spanning a period of eleven years, I analyzed patterns leading up to and following the
start of these programs. I found there were some patterns indicating small effects of
GTPs and other factors both before and after the implementation of a program.
However, while some effects were statistically significant, the effects were very small
in magnitude. None of the quantified effects analyzed in the empirical model were
found to have a dramatic enough impact to credit the GTPs I reviewed as causing the
size of effects the educational institutions generally intended, as represented in the
communications of institutions to students and their families.
Description
46 pages. A thesis presented to the Department of Economics and the Clark Honors College of the University of Oregon in partial fulfillment of the requirements for degree of Bachelor of Arts, Spring 2016.
Keywords
Economics, Tuition, Guaranteed tuition programs, Behavioral economics, College scorecard, Affordability, Higher education