FORECASTING THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON UNIVERSITIES IN THE UNITED STATES: A CASE STUDY OF THE UNIVERSITY OF OREGON
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Date
2021
Authors
Felgentrager, Jesse
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
University of Oregon
Abstract
This research project attempts to analyze the short-term effects of administrative responses to Covid-19 upon universities within the United States in order to forecast impacts in the long-term. It does so primarily by researching shifts in enrollment records during the Covid-19 pandemic, changes in sports and events, and increases in gifts, grants, and contracts. This project involves a case study of the University of Oregon in an attempt to use Oregon as an example of the average University response to Covid-19 and the administrative decisions thereof. The virus itself had an indirect impact on these effects, which is why the project primarily studies the results of such administrative responses from the administrations of American Universities, primarily the University of Oregon’s administration, the state government, and the federal government. These responses were oriented primarily in protecting the welfare of staff and students and the surrounding community, limiting economic loss as it pertains to the schools’ finances and the surrounding communities revenue from the school’s events, and the capability of the administration to maintain previous levels of enrollment and engagement. This work is done by comparing empirical enrollment data from the fall term before the pandemic, fall of 2019, to the fall term following the early stages of the pandemic, fall of 2020. It goes even further by analyzing enrollment data over the last 25 years in order to better derive the effect of the responses to Covid-19. Furthermore, estimations are given to the loss in revenue from the cancellation of sporting events, concerts, fairs and more. Although there is normally a sort of auxiliary wall between university revenue from athletics and other traditional revenue streams, this paper includes the impact on athletics in order to highlight the overall effects of Covid-19 on Universities and because these revenue streams appear to be increasingly blending during this time period, likely accelerated by Covid-19 closures. It also uses financial records from the UO to determine the level of funding and donations, known in this paper as gifts, grants, and contracts, over the last fiscal year. This project finds evidence of a severe decrease in revenue for universities in terms of enrollment as well as sports and events in the short-run. State and federal funding during this time increased significantly however, as well as public and private donations to individual universities. Several dozen universities were forced into closure during this time, and a few others have shifted to fully online course offerings. However, there is significant evidence that in the long-term these effects will primarily disappear entirely, resulting in this event being a sort of outlier. Enrollment estimates for the next academic year across the US show signs of massive increases in students in-state, out-of-state, and international. There is, as well, the possibility of continued increased state and federal funding. Due to the novelty of Covid-19 and the resulting pandemic this project could not with certainty find conclusive enough evidence to believe all universities will shift to fully online formats, as was suggested early on, although there were a few cases of this occurring over the last 18 months. This study also finds that the University of Oregon had one of the better responses to Covid-19 and seems to be coming out of the pandemic relatively unscathed for multiple reasons, resulting in it being a poor example of the average University responses.
Description
38 pages
Keywords
Economics, Universities, Covid-19, Forecast, Future