Title: Irregular Trade Policy: Reversals, Uncertainty And Diversion

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Date

2022-10-04

Authors

Ait Benasser, Youssef

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Publisher

University of Oregon

Abstract

Recent economic, political, and geostrategic developments are upending the global trade framework, weakening global multilateralism and international coordination. The stability and predictability that characterized a slow-moving and consensus-based global system of rules is ceding ground to increasingly more common deviations and irregularities. This invites new questions about the properties of international trade policy. Using a variety of econometric tools and data collection and construction tools, this dissertation empirically investigates three such irregularities that are becoming more prevalent or likely. I find that the economic costs and implications of such irregularities are rather contained in scope and limited in size. This suggests that a transition out of the existing international trade model and into a new framework might be conducted at reduced cost to the continuity and stability of overall economic activity.

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Keywords

International Trade, Policy symmetry, Policy Uncertainty, Political Economy, Trade Diversion, Trade Policy

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