VOTER MIGRATION & ELECTORAL TRENDS IN NORTH CAROLINA, 2000−2016

Abstract

Because American electoral procedures are inherently spatial in nature, the distribution of voters across space occupies a central role as electoral politics play out across various scales (Gimpel and Hui 2015). This study explores voter migration at the county-level as a force for shaping the evolution of party support in North Carolina over the last 15 years, and draws on economic geography and labor economics in the United States, the effect of group psychology, and literature on the role of partisanship in voter migration. Using migration data published by the U.S. Census Bureau, I find that the nature of migration diverges significantly between those with a college degree and those without. Using an experimental method based on partisanship, I estimate the degree of partisan change across North Carolina's counties. The calculations line up with changes on the ground, though imperfectly and with the natural limitations of data-driven research.