Finding High Ground: Simulating an Evacuation in a Lahar Risk Zone

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dc.contributor.advisorBone, Christopher
dc.contributor.authorBard, Joseph
dc.date.accessioned2016-10-27T18:50:55Z
dc.date.issued2016-10-27
dc.description.abstractLarge lahars threaten communities living near volcanoes all over the world. Evacuations are a critical strategy for reducing vulnerability and mitigating a disaster. Hazard perceptions, transportation infrastructure, and transportation mode choice are all important factors in determining the effectiveness of an evacuation. This research explores the effects of population, whether individuals drive or walk, response time, and exit closures on an evacuation in a community threatened by a large lahar originating on Mount Rainier, Washington. An agent-based model employing a co-evolutionary learning algorithm is used to simulate a vehicular evacuation. Clearance times increase when the population is larger and when exits are blocked. Clearance times are reduced when a larger proportion of agents opt out of driving, and as the model learns. Results indicate evacuation times vary greatly due to spatial differences in the transportation network, the initial population distribution, and individual behaviors during the evacuation.en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1794/20519
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherUniversity of Oregon
dc.rightsAll Rights Reserved.
dc.subjectAgent-based modelingen_US
dc.subjectEvacuationen_US
dc.subjectHazarden_US
dc.subjectLaharen_US
dc.titleFinding High Ground: Simulating an Evacuation in a Lahar Risk Zone
dc.typeElectronic Thesis or Dissertation
thesis.degree.disciplineDepartment of Geography
thesis.degree.grantorUniversity of Oregon
thesis.degree.levelmasters
thesis.degree.nameM.S.

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