Essays in International Trade and Russian Trade Policy
Datum
2020-09-24
Autor:innen
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Verlag
University of Oregon
Zusammenfassung
In this dissertation I investigate the evolution of the current Russian foreign trade policy from trade liberalization following the accession to the World Trade Organization in 2012 to protectionism in the form of the retaliatory embargo in 2014. I focus on estimating the effects of each individual policy on Russian international trade, as well as the interconnection of these two opposing policies as parts of a broader strategy. First, I undertake an empirical analysis to estimate the impact of the embargo on Russian aggregate foreign trade. I find that the embargo was not fully effective in shutting down the imports of embargoed goods from the sanctioning countries. Next, I use a triple difference estimation strategy to identify the effect of the retaliatory embargo on the extensive and intensive margins of firm-level trade. I find an increase in the exit rate of Russian firms importing goods targeted by the embargo from the sanctioning countries, with the larger firms switching to trading with non-sanctioning countries (extensive margin effects). Intriguingly, not all firms cut their trade relations with the sanctioning countries, which suggests that the embargo was not fully enforced. I find no evidence of unintended consequences of the embargo on the imports of other product categories. Taken together, Russia has been able to mitigate some but not all the costs to trade resulting from the self-imposed embargo. Finally, I analyze the impact of Russia's accession to the WTO on firm-level foreign trade dynamics. Russia's accession to the WTO had positive effects on Russian exporters and importers along several margins, including an increase in the number of partner countries for exporters and importers, and a significant increase in the number of imported products. The evidence of the effects of the WTO membership on the average export and import flows of firms is mixed. Additionally, I find evidence in support of the claim that the retaliatory embargo could have been conceived as a protectionist impulse to shield Russian producers in vulnerable industries (e.g., agriculture) from the increased competition following the accession to the WTO, rather than a purely retaliation instrument to the sanctions.
Beschreibung
Schlagwörter
International trade, Non-tariff trade barriers, Protectionism, Retaliation, Trade liberalization, Trade policy