Microclimate and Phenology at the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest

Abstract

Spring plant phenology is often used as an indicator of a community response to climate change. Remote data and low-resolution climate models are typically used to predict phenology across a landscape; however, this tends to miss the nuances of microclimate, especially in a mountainous area with heterogeneous topography. I investigated how inter-annual variability in regional climate affects the distribution of microclimates (i.e., areas <100m2) and spring plant phenology across a 6400-hectare watershed within the Western Cascades in Oregon. Additionally, I created species-specific models of bud break at the microclimate scale, that could then be applied across a wider landscape. I found that years with warm winters, few storms and low snowpack have a homogenizing effect on microclimate and spring phenology events, and that bud break models developed at a local scale can be effectively applied across a broader landscape.

This thesis includes previously unpublished coauthored material.