Discounting in Multicausal Attribution: The Principle of Minimal Causation
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Date
1977
Authors
Fischhoff, Baruch
Shaklee, Harriet
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Decision Research
Abstract
A series of three experiments investigated the effect of information
about one possible cause of an event on inferences regarding another
possible cause. Experiment 1 showed that the presence of a second
possible cause had no effect on the perceived probability that the first
possible cause influenced the event. However, if the second cause is
cited as having definitely influenced the event, then the probability
that the first possible cause influenced the event is reduced. Experiment 2
showed that the presence of a second possible cause does reduce the
judged probability that a given cause was present at the time of an
event. The final experiment revealed that the tendency (found in
Experiment 1) to discount the involvement of the first cause given the
involvement of a second cause diminishes when subjects were more highly
motivated and confronted with their own discounting. These results are
inconsistent with Kelley's account of discounting and provide some
support for a proposed explanatory heuristic, the principle of minimal
causation. Users of this principle analyze a situation until they
have identified a minimal set of sufficient causes; other possible
causes are ignored or dismissed.
Description
19 pages
Keywords
Discounting, Multicausal attribution, Minimal causation
Citation
Shaklee, H., & Fischhoff, B. (1977). Discounting in multicausal attribution: The principle of minimal causation (Report No. 77-11). Eugene, OR: Decision Research.