Essays on Maritime Transport and International Trade
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Date
2024-08-07
Authors
Economides, Philip
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
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Publisher
University of Oregon
Abstract
This dissertation considers topics which dovetail studies of maritime trade and transportation. Using theoretical models, empirical identification and structural analysis, I provide novel evidence on three key facts; (i) the repositioning of empty container units is a key logistical practice in maritime shipping that enables the sustained service of global trade imbalances, (ii) advancements in container shipping technology through increased vessel capacity between 1977-2023 have introduced negative spillovers on cargo handling times at port, and (iii) the newly introduced estimated time of arrival (ETA) based port queuing system has contributed to decarbonization in the maritime shipping sector.
In the first substantive chapter, I develop a model of containerized trade and transportation which embeds the logistical practice of container repositioning by transport operators. This involves bringing equipment to where it is most needed for further transport service, and may necessitate the transportation of empty containers when servicing commerce between countries with particularly large trade imbalances. I contrast the comparative statics of this model with novel container traffic data, collected individually from the key US ports. These reduced-form analyses demonstrate that the balanced exchange of container units can only be revealed upon accounting for empty units. Motivated by the recent passing of the Ocean Shipping Reform Act of 2022, I use a structural approach to examine the implications of restricting empty container outflows from the US in order to stimulate US exports. The results of this exercise suggest the policy backfires for the broader public. Although exports are stimulated by policymaker action, transport operators respond to this form of unconventional policy intervention by adjusting freight rates bilaterally. The resulting increase in freight rates for shipping routes destined for the US contributes to an overall reduction in trade activity and a pronounced decline in vessel capacity allocated towards the US containerized shipping market.
In the second substantive chapter, Woan Foong Wong, Simon Fuchs and I explore how technological innovation and port conditions contribute to variation in individual containership dwell time events across the US. Our data documents vessel size, container capacity, and port concentration from January 1977 to December 2023. We observe a four-fold increase in US port visits, peaking in 2010, followed by a downward trend until 2023. This pattern coincides with an accelerated rate of entry among the largest categories of containership classes. We suggest that transport operators are increasingly relying on improved vessel technology to meet growing demand for trade, rather than by supplying more vessels. Despite volume growing over time, average dwell times across US ports have remained centered around 2.4 days. Our empirical results suggest that this status quo is maintained by offsetting mechanisms; (i) larger vessels representing greater unloading efficiencies, and (ii) increased port traffic volumes introduce stronger negative spillover effects on visiting vessels.
In the third substantive chapter, I examine how logistical practices by port authorities can influence vessel emissions. I use the case study of San Pedro Bay, California, which introduced a new vessel queuing system. Under the former system, vessels would be required to enter within 25 nautical miles of the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach before being eligible to be admitted to the vessel queue. Additionally, those awaiting service could anchor near the port area or drift nearby. After observing a swelling of anchorage zone and drift areas use, authorities introduced a queuing system in which each vessel's calculated time of arrival determined their queue position and mandated no idling within a 150 nautical mile area of the ports. I find evidence which suggests that the policy slowed down inbound vessels, reduced idling time prior to port admittance, but increased the extent to which vessels would reposition while waiting. Accounting for all three factors, I find that the policy contributed to a 30.2% decline in containership emissions relative to control ports along the US West Coast.
The dissertation includes previously unpublished co-authored research.
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Keywords
containers, emissions, infrastructure, port performance, queuing, transport