The Roles of Processing Difficulty and Numeracy in the Use of Numeric Risk Information
Loading...
Date
2025-02-24
Authors
Zou, Tingyu
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
University of Oregon
Abstract
One of the key challenges in risk communication is effectively conveying numeric information to the public. Research suggests that numeric information is often more complex and less likely to be used than narrative information, such as individual stories. This may be because numbers are more cognitively demanding, leading decision-makers to rely on easier-to-use narrative content. However, a study on the representativeness heuristic (judging probabilities based on resemblance) found that the use of information depends not on its type but on its difficulty and the cognitive resources available. Specifically, when cognitive resources are limited, people are more likely to use numeric information that is easier to process (shorter and presented before a long narrative) than they are to use more complex numeric information (longer and presented after a short narrative). However, when resources are ample, they are more likely to use more complex numeric information (longer and presented after a short narrative) than they are to use numeric information that is easier to process (shorter and presented before a long narrative). The present two studies extended these ideas into risk assessment, focusing on numeracy instead of cognitive resources. It was hypothesized that participants paradoxically would be more sensitive to risk levels when numeric information was harder to process, with this effect being stronger among highly numerate individuals. In Study 1, the difficulty of information was manipulated by varying its length and order of presentation; in Study 2, it was manipulated by varying numeric precision and order of presentation. Results from Study 1 supported the hypothesis that participants would be more sensitive to risk levels when numeric information was harder to process (longer and presented after a short narrative) compared to when it was easier to process (shorter and presented before a long narrative). Interestingly, number preferences, rather than numeracy, emerged as a significant moderator in Study 1. However, the manipulation in Study 2 was unsuccessful, and the anticipated effects were not observed. Implications for enhancing risk communication strategies were subsequently discussed.
Description
Keywords
Heath communication, Narrative, Numeracy, Numeric information, Processing difficulty, Risk communication