The Bolivian Estimate: The CIA, Juan José Torres, and the Origins of Covert Action

Abstract

This study analyzes why the US approved a CIA plan to covertly support a coup against Bolivian President Juan José Torres in 1971 while at the same time they approved an overt military and economic aid package to Bolivia. Two conventional explanations of US intervention are analyzed: the desire to make the world safe for US business interests, and the desire to prevent a hostile military force from establishing a presence near the US. The first is analyzed by generating and testing propositions, and the second through process tracing. This study finds that both of those explanations do not fully explain the covert action and examines a potential third explanation based in organization theory and how future research could investigate the theory.