Geopolitical, Domestic, or Humanitarian? Theory-Testing for the United States' 1995 Bosnia Intervention
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Date
2021
Authors
Ginieczki, Taylor
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
University of Oregon
Abstract
The multilateral, US-led intervention in Bosnia in 1995 is often upheld as a quintessential example of humanitarian intervention. However, essential questions remain about the precise reasons for US involvement, and this paper hence investigates three different explanatory theories that seek to provide answers. The first theory, that the US acted on geopolitical interests, is discussed across three dimensions — achieving relative gains over Europe, enforcing national security and Bush’s “New World Order,” and mitigating the threat of war spreading. The second theory involves domestic influences that prompted President Clinton to intervene: the upcoming election cycle paired with public opinion polls, and then the media’s “CNN effect.” The third theory, humanitarianism, uses measurements of popular opinion and Finnemore’s (2003) norms of intervention to test whether alleviation of human suffering was the dominant motivation. Ultimately, this article determines the geopolitical rationale to be an intriguing exposition of realpolitik but holistically the least compelling. However, the latter two theories — domestic factors and humanitarian motives — both provide substantial and evidence-based rationales for contextualizing US decision-making. Through evaluating these theories across a wide range of evidence and utilizing elements of process-tracing methodology, this article strives to illuminate the rationale behind this instance of intervention and underline the power of analytical tools in understanding US foreign policy.
Description
1 page.
Keywords
Bosnia, Intervention, International Relations, Geopolitics, Humanitarian