Structuring as an Aid to Performance in Base-Rate Problems
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Date
1984
Authors
Lichtenstein, Sarah
MacGregor, Donald G.
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Decision Research
Abstract
Four groups of college students were each given two base-rate
problems. Three of the groups were given an aid with the first
problem: (a) An instruction to list factors or aspects that were
relevant to solving the problem, (b) a fill-in-the-blank algorithm
that provided the correct solution, or (c) a seven-page tutorial
that explained base-rate problems and showed how to solve them
using a 2 x 2 table. No aid was provided for the second problem.
The control group replicated previous findings in disregarding the
base-rate information. The "list factors" group showed no
improvement over the control group. The algorithm group showed
distinctly better performance for the first problem but were the
same as the control group for the second problem. The tutorial
group did best: 42% of answers to the first problem and 31% of
answers to the second problem were within+ .10 of the correct
answer. An error analysis identified a conceptual weakness in the
tutorial; a high rate of arithmetic errors was also found. College
students appear to lack the knowledge needed to solve base-rate
problems but they can be taught this knowledge relatively easily.
Description
41 pages
Keywords
base-rate, structuring, college students
Citation
Lichtenstein, S., & MacGregor, D. G. (1984). Structuring as an aid to performance in baserate problems (Report No. 84-16). Eugene, OR: Decision Research.