The Subjective Probability of Conjunctions
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Date
1981-12
Authors
Beyth-Marom, Ruth
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Decision Research
Abstract
Previous experiments have demonstrated but not explained people's
tendency to exaggerate the probability of conjunctive events. The
present study explores this tendency in several different contexts
designed to reveal how the overestimation process works; the events
which served as stimuli were either repetitive or unique with or
without causal links between them. The design was either a within-subject
or a between-subject design. The response mode was either percentages
or chances. The results suggest that people use different strategies
to assess conjunctions in different situations, all of which lead to
overestimation. These processes are discussed and some suggestions
are made about ways to overcome their negative effects.
Description
46 pages
Keywords
Subjective probability, Conjun, Probability, Exaggerated probability
Citation
Beyth-Marom, R. (1981). The subjective probability of conjunctions (Report No. 81-12). Eugene, OR: Decision Research.