Structuring Uncertainty and Conflicting Objectives for Life or Death Decisions Following an Urban Biological Catastrophe
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Date
2012-09-04
Authors
Rosoff, Heather
John, Richard
Burns, William J.
Siko, Robert
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Abstract
A large-scale biological terrorist attack would likely result in mass casualties and have major
economic consequences for the affected area, and potentially for the nation as a whole. The extent to
which an impacted area recovers from such losses depends in large part on the decision making of local
residents. In this study we utilize scenario simulation, a methodology that uses video simulation of a news
report to immerse respondents in the details and consequences of a biological terrorist attack. Specifically,
we explore the decision-making of local residents to a large-scale terrorist attack using weaponized
anthrax in the Seattle, Washington area. The scenario was based on one of the U.S. Department of
Homeland Security’s National Planning Scenarios. This study focuses on structuring a decision model
around the objectives and motivations that shape local residents’ decisions to act during recovery from an
anthrax attack. The relevant uncertainties and objectives that drive residents’ decisions during response
and recovery from the anthrax attack were developed using group scenario simulations with various
stakeholders in Seattle. In the beginning stages of the crisis concerns about health predominate. Later
concerns about financial security emerge. Throughout it appears that residents weigh their concerns for
safety with the collective costs of leaving the Seattle area. The decision model produces several key
insights that are critical to the development and implementation of recovery policies. A causal loop
diagram is also presented that depicts the dynamic nature of this decision process.
Description
21 pages
Keywords
Terrorism, Value focused thinking, Objectives hierarchy, System dynamics modelling
Citation
Rosoff, H., John, R., Burns, W. J., & Siko, R. (2012). Structuring uncertainty and conflicting objectives for life or death decisions following an urban biological catastrophe. Journal of Integrated Disaster Risk Management, 1, 1–21.