Executive
Summary:

Preparing
for
Climate
Change
in
the


Klamath
Basin
of
Southern
Oregon
and


Northern
California































Prepared
by:



Brian
Barr,
Marni
Koopman,
Cindy
Deacon
Williams

National
Center
for
Conservation
Science
&
Policy



Bob
Doppelt,
Roger
Hamilton,
Stacy
Vynne

Climate
Leadership
Initiative,
Institute
for
a
Sustainable
Environment,
University
of
Oregon



January
2010





Full
modeling
results
and
report
available
at:

http://www.nccsp.org/scientific_knowledge

http://climlead.uoregon.edu/node/136










EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY

The
Klamath
Basin
of
southern
Oregon
and
northern
California
is
rich
in
history,
culture,
and

natural
resources.
This
report
explores
how
the
local
communities
and
natural
resources
of
the

Klamath
Basin
are
expected
to
be
affected
by
climate
change
and
identifies
approaches
to

preparing
for
such
changes.
Many
impacts
from
climate
change
are
already
becoming
apparent,

such
as
an
increasing
average
global
temperature,
rising
sea
levels,
earlier
snow
melt,
loss
of

snow
pack,
and
changing
precipitation
patterns
and
storm
frequency.
Without
severe
cuts
in

greenhouse
gas
emissions,
these
impacts
and
others
will
continue
to
accelerate
and
negatively

affect
local
communities
and
natural
resources.
While
efforts
to
reduce
emissions
of

greenhouse
gases
are
essential
to
prevent
the
most
severe
impacts,
we
must
also
take

proactive
steps
to
prepare
for
the
impacts
of
climate
change
already
inevitable
due
to

emissions
that
have
previously
been
released.



This
report
is
the
result
of
a
collaborative
effort.
The
USDA
Forest
Service
Pacific
Northwest

Research
Station
developed
projections
for
the
potential
future
climate
of
the
Klamath
Basin.

The
University
of
Oregon’s
Climate
Leadership
Initiative
and
the
National
Center
for

Conservation
Science
&
Policy
presented
these
projections
to
local
leaders
and
experts
in
the

Klamath
Basin
through
a
series
of
workshops.
Leaders
and
experts
used
these
climate

projections
to
identify
likely
changes
to
natural
(aquatic
and
terrestrial
species
and
habitats),

built
(infrastructure),
economic
(agriculture,
forestry,
business,
etc),
human
(health,
educators,

and
emergency
services),
and
tribal
(resources
of
cultural
and
indigenous
community

importance)
systems.
The
leaders
and
experts
then
developed
recommended
strategies
and

actions
to
prepare
communities
and
natural
resources
for
those
changes.

Future
Climate
of
the
Klamath
Basin

Three
global
climate
models
(CSIRO,
MIROC,
and
HADCM)
and
a
vegetation
model
(MC1)
were

used
to
project
future
temperature,
precipitation,
vegetation,
runoff,
and
wildfire
in
the

Klamath
Basin.
All
three
climate
models
projected
an
increase
in
annual
average
temperatures

compared
to
baseline
temperatures
(2.1
to
3.6°
F
[1.1
to
2.0°
C]
increase
by
mid‐century
and

4.6
to
7.2°
F
[2.5
to
4.6°
C]
by
late
century).
Summer
warming
was
projected
to
be
greater
than

warming
during
other
seasons.




Projections
for
annual
average
precipitation
ranged
from
an
overall
reduction
of
11%
to
an

increase
of
24%.
All
three
models
agreed
that
future
summers
are
likely
to
be
somewhat
drier

(a
decrease
of
3%
to
37%)
than
past
summers.



Vegetation
model
results
indicated
a
shift
in
growing
conditions
in
the
Upper
Basin
that
could

favor
grasslands
in
areas
currently
suitable
for
sagebrush
and
juniper.
In
the
Lower
Basin,

conditions
are
projected
to
favor
oaks
and
madrone,
while
conditions
for
maritime
conifer

forest
(redwood,
Douglas
fir,
and
Sitka
spruce)
are
projected
to
decline.
The
vegetation
model

also
projects
11
to
22%
greater
area
burned
by
wildfire
by
late
century.

Executive
Summary:
Climate
Change
Preparation
in
the
Klamath
Basin










1

Recommended
Actions
for
Preparation
Across
Systems

Through
a
series
of
workshops
in
the
Klamath
Basin,
participants
made
recommendations
for

how
to
prepare
for
the
changes
expected
under
climate
change.
While
recommendations
were

made
for
each
specific
system,
many
recommendations
provide
co‐benefits
across
multiple

systems
and
sectors.
The
strategies
and
actions
suggested
by
workshop
participants
are
likely

to
increase
the
resilience
and
resistance
of
local
communities
and
natural
resources
to
climate

change.
A
summary
of
recommendations
includes
the
following:



Natural
Systems:

• Protect
areas
with
cooler
water
as
air
and
water
temperatures
rise.
These
include

stream
and
lake
areas
with
groundwater‐fed
springs
and
well‐developed
bank

vegetation.

• Decommission
and
re‐contour
non‐essential
roads
to
reduce
overall
impacts
of
erosion

and
sedimentation
during
severe
storm
events.

• Reconnect
rivers
with
floodplains,
restore
wetlands,
and
restore
stream‐side
areas
to

hold
more
water
during
floods
and
increase
groundwater
recharge.

• Protect
intact
habitats
such
as
roadless
areas
that
provide
strongholds
for
many
native

species.

• Reseed
areas
after
disturbance
with
locally‐collected,
native
seeds
to
re‐establish

plants
that
occur
in
the
area
and
limit
the
spread
of
invading
species.

• Develop
new
partnerships
across
agencies,
Tribes,
and
landowners
to
encourage

landscape‐scale
planning
across
jurisdictional
boundaries.



Built
Systems:

• Increase
reliability
of
water
supply
and
decrease
the
likelihood
of
flooding
by
restoring

wetlands,
constructing
bioswales,
and
restoring
floodplains
and
stream‐side
areas.

• Provide
incentives
for
water
conservation
to
reduce
water
demand
and
increase

natural
water
storage.

• Provide
homeowners
with
assistance
in
lowering
their
energy
use
to
reduce
reliability

on
services
that
may
be
interrupted.


• Replace
undersized
culverts
to
prevent
road‐stream
crossing
failures
during
floods.

• Expand
rail
use
to
increase
energy
efficiency
of
local
and
regional
transportation
and

decrease
reliance
on
the
road
network.

• Reduce
the
building
of
homes
in
fire
prone
and
flood
prone
areas
to
keep
communities

safe
and
decrease
the
demand
on
emergency
services.





Economic
Systems:

• Retain
resiliency
of
natural
systems
so
they
continue
to
provide
ecosystem
services

such
as
clean
water
supply,
flood
buffering,
and
timber
production
so
that
the

communities
and
industries
they
support
are
maintained.

• Identify
and
take
advantage
of
new
renewable
energy
markets
to
reduce
reliance
on

energy
systems
that
may
be
disrupted
and
to
build
a
local
energy
economy.


Executive
Summary:
Climate
Change
Preparation
in
the
Klamath
Basin










2

• Support
the
growth
of
small
farms
that
provide
local
produce
to
improve
food
security

and
nutrition
within
communities.

• Retain
large
tracts
of
forest
lands
through
carbon
credits
or
limits
on
subdivisions
as
a

means
to
reduce
the
risk
of
fire
and
the
costs
of
emergency
services
as
well
as
develop

a
carbon
sequestration
program.

• Promote
tourism
for
activities
like
birding
and
cycling
to
expand
the
local
economy

while
other
industries,
such
as
forestry,
may
decline
due
to
climate
change.

• Increase
size
and
resiliency
of
commercially
harvested
fish
populations
through
stream

and
watershed
restoration
activities
to
re‐establish
this
sector
of
the
economy.



Human
Systems:

• Improve
detection
of,
and
response
to,
new
diseases
and
disease
vectors
to
quickly

protect
communities
from
emerging
health
threats
that
occur
due
to
warmer

temperatures.

• Provide
incentives
for
more
efficient
homes
that
would
reduce
the
impacts
of
severe

heat
on
local
populations.

• Increase
passive
cooling
and
air
conditioning
in
public
places
to
minimize
severe
heat

impacts
to
the
health
of
community
members.

• Update
emergency
plans
to
reflect
increased
likelihood
of
severe
weather,
floods,
and

wildfires.

• Engage
with
and
communicate
among
community
groups
(faith‐based
organizations,

nonprofit
groups)
to
assist
governments
in
emergency
response
(e.g.,
distributing

supplies
in
response
to
flooding
events
and
identifying
and
assisting
people
at
risk

from
severe
heat).



Tribal
Systems:

• Improve
communication
among
state
and
federal
agencies
and
tribes
to
allow
for

tribal
input
to
planning
processes
and
broaden
community
buy‐in.

• Investigate
feasibility
of
carbon
credits
for
preserving
forests
on
tribal
lands
to
increase

carbon
sequestration
and
improve
the
local
economy.

• Provide
incentives
for
private
landowners
to
cultivate
culturally
important
species
of

plants
and
wildlife
and
allow
for
tribal
use.

• Acknowledge
the
value
of
traditional
ecological
knowledge
in
managing
natural

ecosystems
and
protect
such
knowledge
from
misuse.




The
recommendations
made
by
local
leaders
and
experts
represent
a
sample
of
potential

actions
and
strategies
that
could
be
taken
in
the
Klamath
Basin
to
prepare
for
climate
change.

Heat
waves,
severe
precipitation
events,
and
prolonged
drought
are
all
expected
to
increase
as

a
result
of
climate
change.
By
increasing
the
resilience
of
natural
resources,
the
local
economy,

and
local
communities
to
such
changes,
the
potential
negative
impacts
of
climate
change
would

be
reduced,
thereby
maintaining
the
quality
of
life
that
Klamath
Basin
residents
currently
enjoy.

 
Executive
Summary:
Climate
Change
Preparation
in
the
Klamath
Basin










3