LONG (DO NOT DELETE) 3/6/2013 9:16 AM [933] LANCE N. LONG AND WILLIAM F. CHRISTENSEN* When Justices (Subconsciously) Attack: The Theory of Argumentative Threat and the Supreme Court Introduction ...................................................................................... 933 I. Writing Styles and Appellate Outcomes: Is the Verdict In?.. 939 II. The Theory of Argumentative Threat .................................... 945 A. Linguistic Responses to Perceived Threats .................... 946 B. Justices’ Responses to Perceived Threats ...................... 947 Conclusion ........................................................................................ 958 INTRODUCTION udicial attacks seem to be on the rise. For example, according to some sources,1 high-profile verbal “attacks” between Supreme Court Justices occurred after the National Federation of Independent Business v. Sebelius2 decision. Written attacks and counterattacks  * Lance N. Long is an Associate Professor of Legal Skills at Stetson University College of Law. William F. Christensen is a Professor of Statistics at Brigham Young University. The Authors are thankful for Alexander Zaitzeff’s analysis of previously gathered data; for Chrissy Carpenter’s research assistance; and for the thoughts and ideas Professors Kirsten Davis, Tom Lee, and John Fee suggested during the writing of this article. Professor Kirsten Davis also provided valuable edits and insights on drafts. The Authors are also thankful for wonderful research assistants, Dallan Bunce and Abigail Pressler, who compiled the data for most of the analyses, and for the research assistance of Jessica Ronay, Adam LaBonte, and Alex Gancayco. Finally, thanks to Professor Brooke Bowman for her editing assistance. The Authors acknowledge and thank Stetson University College of Law and Brigham Young University for their support of this Article. 1 E.g., Debra Cassens Weiss, Scalia Was ‘Enraged’ at Roberts’ Switched Vote on the Health Law, New Book Says, ABA JOURNAL (Sept. 17, 2012, 6:55 AM), http://www.aba journal.com/mobile/article/scalia_was_enraged_at_roberts_switched_vote_on_the_health _law_new_book_says/. 2 No. 11-393 (U.S. June 28, 2012). J LONG (DO NOT DELETE) 3/6/2013 9:16 AM 934 OREGON LAW REVIEW [Vol. 91, 933 between Justice Scalia and Judge Posner, regarding Justice Scalia’s defense of textualism in his new book, Reading Law,3 also come to mind. The attacks discussed in this Article are not like those attacks. The attacks discussed here are not overt attacks. They are more subtle, more in the nature of a defense than an offense;4 they are likely even subconscious and do not play out in newspapers or legal journals, but in the Justices’ written opinions. Interestingly, however, as discussed in Part II, like the Sebelius attacks and the Scalia/Posner feud, Justice Scalia finds himself in the spotlight of these “attacks” as well. It is human nature to attack, or at least to defend oneself, when we feel threatened.5 We humans also know that the threat need not be physical in order to elicit a counterattack or a defensive posture. We have likely been on the receiving end of a verbal or written threat and know from the experience that we may feel like firing off an angry response that would not necessarily reflect how we might speak or write if we were not responding defensively. And because lawyers and judges are no different, they sometimes write angry responses in briefs and opinions.6  3 See Bryan A. Garner & Richard A. Posner, How Nuanced is Justice Scalia’s Judicial Philosophy? An Exchange, NEW REPUBLIC (Sept. 10, 2012, 12:01 AM), http://www.tnr .com/article/politics/107001/how-nuanced-justice-scalias-judicial-philosophy-exchange#. Justice Scalia and co-author Bryan Garner explain that the book is “unapologetically normative, prescribing what, in our view, courts ought to do with operative language.” Id. Posner believes that the book is incoherent and that there is “a pattern of equivocation exhibited throughout their book.” Richard A. Posner, The Incoherence of Antonin Scalia, NEW REPUBLIC (Aug. 24, 2012, 12:00 PM), http://www.tnr.com/article/magazine/books -and-arts/106441/scalia-garner-reading-the-law-textual-originalism. 4 In all honesty, this Article should be entitled, “When Justices Get Defensive.” But the Authors could not resist the allure of alluding to the “When [Things] Attack” genre of real- life television. See, e.g., When Animals Attack, IMDB, http://www.imdb.com/title /tt0293702/ (last visited Jan. 30, 2013); When Sharks Attack, IMDB, http://www.imdb.com /title/tt0987934/ (last visited Jan. 30, 2013); When Vacations Attack, IMDB, http://www .imdb.com/title/tt1794677/ (last visited Jan. 30, 2013). 5 See Stress: Constant Stress Puts Your Health at Risk, MAYO CLINIC (Sept. 11, 2010), http://www.mayoclinic.com/health/stress/SR00001. 6 Justice Scalia is perhaps the most famous, angry responder in contemporary American jurisprudence. See, e.g., Linda Greenhouse, Justice Scalia Objects, N.Y. TIMES (Mar. 9, 2011, 8:40 PM), http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/09/justice-scalia-objects/ (quoting language from Justice Scalia’s dissent in Michigan v. Bryant, which included Justice Scalia’s assessment that a conclusion in the majority opinion was “‘so transparently false that professing to believe it demeans this institution,’” and that the majority “makes itself the obfuscator of last resort”); see also Donald J. Winder & Jerald V. Hale, Enforcing Civility in an Uncivilized World, LITIG. COMMENT. & REV., http://www.litcounsel.org/commentary/winder1109.htm (last visited Jan. 30, 2013) (discussing the rise of incivility in legal briefs and using Peters v. Pine Meadow Ranch LONG (DO NOT DELETE) 3/6/2013 9:16 AM 2013] When Justices (Subconsciously) Attack: The Theory of Argumentative Threat 935 and the Supreme Court Overt, angry responses are, however, intentional. But, do lawyers and judges also react defensively in a more subtle and subconscious “attacking” manner even if a brief or an opinion lacks any obvious signs of frustration or anger? What about United States Supreme Court Justices? Does being on the losing end of an argument change the manner in which a Justice writes an opinion? Here’s another question: What do the frequent use of intensifiers,7 long sentences, and long words have in common? If you examined legal writing texts, you might answer that these writing conventions are all characteristic of “poor” legal writing style. And, in fact, these conventions are almost universally proscribed by legal writing texts.8  Home Ass’n, 151 P.3d 962 (Utah 2007), as an example). In Peters, the Supreme Court of Utah refused to address the merits of an apparently meritorious claim because the brief of the appellant’s lawyer was “replete with unfounded accusations impugning the integrity of the court . . . below.” 151 P.3d at 962. 7 In grammar, an intensifier is “a word, esp[ecially] an adjective or adverb, that intensifies the meaning of the word or phrase that it modifies, for example, very or extremely.” COLLINS ENGLISH DICTIONARY 415 (2d ed. 2006). Also called an “intensive,” the Oxford American Dictionary of Current English similarly describes its grammatical meaning: “expressing intensity; giving force, as really in my feet are really cold.” THE OXFORD AMERICAN DICTIONARY AND LANGUAGE GUIDE 511 (1999) (emphasis in original). 8 For proscriptions against overusing intensifiers, see, e.g., MARY BETH BEAZLEY, A PRACTICAL GUIDE TO APPELLATE ADVOCACY 234 (3d ed. 2010) (“Clearly, obviously, of course, and it is evident that have been so overused that they go beyond having no meaning to having a negative meaning” (emphasis in original)); BRADLEY G. CLARY & PAMELA LYSAGHT, SUCCESSFUL LEGAL ANALYSIS AND WRITING: THE FUNDAMENTALS 88 (2003) (directing writers to “[l]et nouns and verbs do most of your talking, not adjectives and adverbs” and to “[p]articularly avoid exaggeration through conclusory modifiers such as ‘clearly,’ ‘plainly,’ ‘very,’ ‘obviously,’ ‘outrageous,’ ‘unconscionable,’ and the like”); LINDA H. EDWARDS, LEGAL WRITING AND ANALYSIS 283 (3d ed. 2011) (“Because generations of writers have overused words like ‘clearly’ or ‘very,’ these and other common intensifiers have become virtually meaningless. As a matter of fact, they have begun to develop a connotation exactly opposite their original meaning.”); BRYAN A. GARNER, THE REDBOOK: A MANUAL ON LEGAL STYLE 192 (2d ed. 2002) (“[C]learly; obviously. As sentence adverbs , these weasel words are often exaggerators. They may reassure the writer but not the reader. If something is clearly or obviously true, then demonstrate that fact to the reader without resorting to the conclusory use of these words.”); RICHARD K. NEUMANN, JR., LEGAL REASONING AND LEGAL WRITING: STRUCTURE, STRATEGY, AND STYLE 330 (5th ed. 2005) (stating that “‘[i]t is obvious’ and ‘clearly’ supply no extra meaning” and, “[i]nstead, . . .divert the reader’s attention from the message of the sentence”); MARY BARNARD RAY & JILL J. RAMSFIELD, LEGAL WRITING: GETTING IT RIGHT AND GETTING IT WRITTEN 205 (3d ed. 2000) (instructing writers to “avoid modifiers that have little substantive meaning, such as in this manner, very, or obviously”); Neil Daniel, Writing Tips, 1 PERSP.: TEACHING LEGAL RES. & WRITING 87, 88 (1993) (“The rule for very, a conspicuously empty modifier, applies for other intensifiers as well. In general, writing without such words is stronger than writing with them. . . . Avoid clearly. The word is almost always the writer’s last resort when an LONG (DO NOT DELETE) 3/6/2013 9:16 AM 936 OREGON LAW REVIEW [Vol. 91, 933 On the other hand, if you had researched the use of these writing conventions in appellate briefs and appellate opinions, you might answer that these conventions are found more frequently when lawyers and judges think—or know—that they are on the losing end of an argument.9 Or, in other words, these conventions are found more frequently when the writer feels her position is threatened. As lawyers, we hope that such language conventions, regardless of whether they constitute “poor writing style” or “defensive language,” would not ultimately affect appellate court decisions. We want to  argument is murky.”); and James W. McElhaney, A Style Sheet for Litigation, 1 SCRIBES J. LEGAL WRITING 63, 71 (1990) (discussing that a “recent study of courtroom language showed what good writers already know—intensifiers often have the opposite of their intended effect”). For proscriptions against using long sentences and long words, see, e.g., CHARLES R. CALLEROS, LEGAL METHOD AND WRITING 268 (6th ed. 2011) (stating that clear, concrete, and simple terms allow readers to more easily grasp ideas); CHRISTINE COUGHLIN ET AL., A LAWYER WRITES: A PRACTICAL GUIDE TO LEGAL ANALYSIS 257–58 (2008) (stating that because “[a]fter [twenty five] words, a reader will usually stop absorbing,” writers should create shorter sentences); JOHN C. DERNBACH ET AL., A PRACTICAL GUIDE TO LEGAL WRITING AND LEGAL METHOD 244, 246 (4th ed. 2010) (instructing writers to use active voice and avoid wordy phrases); EDWARDS, supra, at 274, 281, 284 (noting that paragraphs should be moderately short, unnecessary phrases should be omitted or replaced by a single word, and long sentences should be avoided); MICHAEL D. MURRAY & CHRISTY HALLAM DESANCTIS, LEGAL WRITING AND ANALYSIS 242 (2009) (noting that writers should write as plainly as possible, break up long sentences, and write shorter paragraphs using fewer sentences); NEUMANN, supra, at 224, 241–43 (stating that an effective paragraph is of readable length, is broken up into smaller sections, streamlines and breaks up unnecessary wordy phrases, and avoids passive voice); RICHARD K. NEUMANN, JR. & SHEILA SIMON, LEGAL WRITING 154, 156 (2d ed. 2011) (instructing writers to break sentences into two or more shorter sentences, break up paragraphs that are too large, and break material into “digestible chunks”); MARY BARNARD RAY, THE BASICS OF LEGAL WRITING 132–33 (rev. 1st ed. 2008) (stating that writers need to use shorter, simpler sentences in legal writing and include no more than one phrase before and after the subject and verb in each sentence); NANCY L. SCHULTZ & LOUIS J. SIRICO, Jr., LEGAL WRITING AND OTHER LAWYERING SKILLS 91–94, 98–99 (5th ed. 2010) (inculcating writers to use the simplest and most direct language possible, eliminate passive voice, avoid legalese, and write short sentences); HELENE S. SHAPO ET AL., WRITING AND ANALYSIS IN THE LAW 207–08, 231, 232, 235 (5th ed. 2008) (directing writers to avoid long, complicated sentences, omit wordy, unnecessary phrases, keep language simple and straightforward, use short, concrete subjects, and write short, concise sentences); ROBIN WELLFORD SLOCUM, LEGAL REASONING, WRITING, AND OTHER LAWYERING SKILLS 271–72, 276–77 (3d ed. 2011) (stating that writers should use the active voice, keep sentences short to avoid confusing the reader, “[s]ubstitute [s]imple [w]ords for [l]onger [w]ords,” and use concrete, specific words). 9 See Lance N. Long & William F. Christensen, Clearly, Using Intensifiers Is Very Bad—Or Is It?, 45 IDAHO L. REV. 171 (2008) [hereinafter Clearly, Using Intensifiers]; Lance N. Long & William F. Christensen, Does the Readability of Your Brief Affect Your Chance of Winning an Appeal?, 12 J. APP. PRAC. & PROCESS 145 (2011) [hereinafter Readability of Your Brief]. LONG (DO NOT DELETE) 3/6/2013 9:16 AM 2013] When Justices (Subconsciously) Attack: The Theory of Argumentative Threat 937 and the Supreme Court believe that appellate court decisions will be decided on the relevant facts and law applicable to a client’s case and not on a particular writing style. Many judges undoubtedly share this sentiment. As one California Court of Appeals justice stated, “That a decent writing style is appreciated by a busy jurist is self-evident. However, the suggestion that appeals are ‘won’ or ‘lost’ thereby, is a conceit I am loathe to see further encouraged.”10 Nevertheless, abundant research has shown that writing style and readability do affect a reader’s perception of the message and the messenger.11 Even the simple convention of using intensifiers, words  10 Robert W. Benson & Joan B. Kessler, Legalese v. Plain English: An Empirical Study of Persuasion and Credibility in Appellate Brief Writing, 20 LOY. L.A. L. REV. 301, 304– 05 (1987) (quoting a letter from Donald N. Gates, Justice, Cal. Courts of Appeal, to Robert W. Benson, Professor, Loyola Law Sch. (June 12, 1985)). 11 See RICHARD E. PETTY & JOHN T. CACIOPPO, ATTITUDES AND PERSUASION: CLASSIC AND CONTEMPORARY APPROACHES 70–72, 77–79 (1981) (discussing the effect of number of arguments, order of arguments, and message comprehensibility); Benson & Kessler, supra note 10, at 304 n.27 (citing ERWIN P. BETTINGHAUS & MICHAEL J. CODY, PERSUASIVE COMMUNICATION (4th ed. 1987), which discusses research into what constitutes effective persuasion)); Alice H. Eagly, Comprehensibility of Persuasive Arguments as a Determinant of Opinion Change, 29 J. PERSONALITY & SOC. PSYCHOL. 758 (1974); see also Benson & Kessler, supra note 10, at 302; James Lindgren, Style Matters: A Review Essay on Legal Writing, 92 YALE L.J. 161, 169 (1982) (book review) (characterizing Flesch’s then-new How to Write Plain English as “good” but questioning the value of applying a Flesch-type analysis to legal writing and asking rhetorically: “Why force yourself to write at an eighth- or ninth-grade level if you are writing mainly for an audience of other lawyers?”); Joseph Kimble, Answering the Critics of Plain Language, 5 SCRIBES J. LEGAL WRITING 51, 68–71 (1994–1995) (describing a study showing that the contract and statutory provisions were better understood by law students, law school staff, and state-agency staff when the provisions were rewritten in a more readable format). See generally WILLIAM H. DUBAY, THE PRINCIPLES OF READABILITY 54–55 (2004), available at http://almacenplantillasweb.es/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/The-Principles-of -Readability.pdf; EDWARD FRY, THE LEGAL ASPECTS OF READABILITY (rev. 1998) (available with the Education Resources Information Center) (revised version of a talk given at the International Reading Association, New Orleans, in May 1989); PETER M. TIERSMA, LEGAL LANGUAGE 220–27 (1999); Robert W. Benson, The End of Legalese: The Game is Over, 13 N.Y.U. REV. L. & SOC. CHANGE 519, 547–58 (1984–1985). An example of this sentiment was also stated by the court in Johnson v. Revenue Management Corp. when scrutinizing dunning letters sent to debtors by collection agencies: “Unsophisticated readers may require more explanation than do federal judges; what seems pellucid to a judge, a legally sophisticated reader, may be opaque to someone whose formal education ended after the sixth grade.” 169 F.3d 1057, 1060 (7th Cir. 1999); see also HUNTER M. BRELAND & FREDERICK M. HART, DEFINING LEGAL WRITING: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE LEGAL MEMORANDUM (Law Sch. Admission Council Research Report 93-06, 1994) (describing an extensive survey and regression analysis conducted to determine what constitutes good or poor legal writing); Benson & Kessler, supra note 10; Sean Flammer, Persuading Judges: An Empirical Analysis of Writing Style, Persuasion, and the Use of Plain English, 16 LEGAL WRITING 183 (2010) (describing a LONG (DO NOT DELETE) 3/6/2013 9:16 AM 938 OREGON LAW REVIEW [Vol. 91, 933 such as “very,” “clearly,” and “obviously,” has been shown to affect a reader’s perception of the persuasiveness and credibility of a legal argument.12 In particular, two previous studies by the Authors13 showed that the outcome of an appeal is related to the interaction of the frequency of intensifiers used by an appellant in a brief and by the court in its opinion. One of the authors’ studies also shows that using long sentences and long words is statistically correlated with dissenting Supreme Court opinions.14 Still, no research or study has conclusively shown that an appeal can be “won” or “lost” by implementing—or avoiding—any given writing convention. Even in light of the inconclusive evidence of whether writing style dictates the outcome of an appeal, there is evidence of a correlation between “losing arguments” and certain writing conventions.15 This Article proposes the Authors’ novel theory of “argumentative threat,” which hypothesizes that when faced with an argument that a legal writer believes—or knows—she is likely to lose, the writer will tend to write in a style that uses more intensifiers. The theory also proposes that longer sentences and longer words may be associated with a defensive style of writing. The Authors use the United States Supreme Court to illustrate their theory. Part I of this Article reviews the scholarly research addressing legal writing style and its relationship to appellate outcomes. Part I includes a brief review of the Authors’ previous two studies, one of which shows that although a statistically significant correlation exists between higher intensifier usage and a higher likelihood of losing on appeal, that relationship is probably not causal. In other words,  survey showing that most state and federal judges prefer plain language over legalese and describing three earlier surveys that reached the same result); cf. TIERSMA, supra, at 211– 30 (listing areas in which plain language is better understood than unduly technical language and discussing examples); Brady S. Coleman et al., Grammatical and Structural Choices in Issue Framing: A Quantitative Analysis of “Questions Presented” from a Half Century of Supreme Court Briefs, 29 AM. J. TRIAL ADVOC. 327 (2005); Brady Coleman & Quy Phung, The Language of Supreme Court Briefs: A Large-Scale Quantitative Investigation, 11 J. APP. PRAC. & PROCESS 75 (2010); Judith D. Fischer, Got Issues? An Empirical Study About Framing Them, 6 J. ASS’N LEGAL WRITING DIRECTORS 1 (2009). 12 Clearly, Using Intensifiers, supra note 9, at 175–76 (describing two surveys showing that appellate judges thought briefs were annoying, less persuasive, and less credible if they used intensifiers in their writing). 13 Id.; Readability of Your Brief, supra note 9. 14 Readability of Your Brief, supra note 9, at 161–62. 15 Clearly, Using Intensifiers, supra note 9, at 185–86; Readability of Your Brief, supra note 9, at 159–62. LONG (DO NOT DELETE) 3/6/2013 9:16 AM 2013] When Justices (Subconsciously) Attack: The Theory of Argumentative Threat 939 and the Supreme Court although using more intensifiers might not cause you to lose more often on appeal, using more intensifiers may indicate that you believe that you are about to lose an appeal. The study also shows that judges writing dissenting (“losing”) opinions will use more intensifiers than judges writing majority (“winning”) opinions. The other study shows that although no statistically significant relationship exists between readability (which is measured by the length of words and sentences) and outcome, there are some interesting relationships between the readability of briefs and opinions in state supreme courts, federal courts of appeals, and the United States Supreme Court. Part II explains the theory of argumentative threat and shows how the theory of argumentative threat is supported by previous studies by other scholars as well as by the Authors’ previous studies. Part II also illustrates the theory of argumentative threat, using the United States Supreme Court as an example. The theory of argumentative threat applied to the Supreme Court posits that Supreme Court Justices write in a more defensive posture, typified by using more intensifiers and longer words and sentences, when they write a dissenting opinion. This Article concludes by summarizing the theory and suggesting areas for further research. I WRITING STYLES AND APPELLATE OUTCOMES: IS THE VERDICT IN? Before addressing appellate writing styles and outcomes, it should be noted that there is good evidence showing that oral presentation styles and techniques can affect trial outcomes. For example, William O’Barr and others proposed that using intensifiers was one of several forms of “powerless language.” When powerless language is used by witnesses in a courtroom, it “strongly affects how favorably the witness is perceived, and by implication suggests that these sorts of differences may play a consequential role in the legal process itself.”16 Powerless language includes using hedges, (such as “sort of,” “kind of,” “a little”), hesitations (such as “ah,” “um,” “let’s see”), answering a question with rising intonation (“thirty-five?”), polite forms, (“please,” “thank you”) and other similar language forms.17  16 WILLIAM M. O’BARR, LINGUISTIC EVIDENCE: LANGUAGE, POWER, AND STRATEGY IN THE COURTROOM 75 (Donald Black ed., 1982). 17 Id. at 63–75. LONG (DO NOT DELETE) 3/6/2013 9:16 AM 940 OREGON LAW REVIEW [Vol. 91, 933 Other presentational factors may also affect trial outcomes. Recently, a study using mock jurors showed “that the presence of eyeglasses on a defendant may significantly affect verdict outcome.”18 For example, African-American defendants were less likely to be convicted of a violent crime if they wore glasses.19 On the other hand, Caucasian defendants were more likely to be convicted of white-collar crimes if they wore glasses.20 One study even indicated that the pitch of a voice might affect a listener’s perception of the truthfulness of the speaker.21 While oral presentation likely affects trial outcomes, most judges suggest that in the majority of cases, oral advocacy has little effect at the appellate level. Federal appellate court judges have estimated that oral argument determines the outcome in as few as zero percent or as many as thirty-seven percent of cases.22 Justice Thomas sees almost no value in oral argument: “I refuse to participate. I don’t like it, so I don’t do it.”23 Justice Scalia believes that oral argument rarely changes a judge’s mind.24 Justice Ginsburg says that she has “seen few victories snatched at oral argument” in her eighteen years on the bench, but has seen winners become losers.25 While Chief Justice Roberts believes oral argument is “terribly, terribly important,” he doesn’t necessarily think it affects the outcome of appeals.26  18 Michael J. Brown, Is Justice Blind or Just Visually Impaired? The Effects of Eyeglasses on Mock Juror Decisions, JURY EXPERT, Mar. 2011, at 1, 3–4. 19 Id. 20 Id. at 4. 21 William Apple et al., Effects of Pitch and Speech Rate on Personal Attributions, 37 J. PERSONALITY & SOC. PSYCHOL. 715 (1979). 22 BUREAU NAT’L AFFAIRS, INC., Oral Argument, in FEDERAL APPELLATE PRACTICE 437, 439 (2008), available at http://subscript.bna.com/pic2/lsll.nsf/8e9ea8728473b3be 852569f9005d302a/36659829b6a2f21085257505004ffcd9/$FILE/Oral%20Argument.pdf; Warren D. Wolfson, Oral Argument: Does It Matter?, 35 IND. L. REV. 451, 453 (2002) (generally concluding that almost all judges find that oral argument affects their decisions in only a small minority of cases); see also Robert J. Martineau, The Value of Appellate Oral Argument: A Challenge to the Conventional Wisdom, 72 IOWA L. REV. 1 (1986) (arguing against oral argument, including a claim that it does not usually change the outcome of an appeal). 23 Does Oral Argument Matter, D.C. CIRCUIT REV. (Mar. 22, 2012), http://dccircuit review.com/2012/03/22/does-oral-argument-matter/. 24 Id. 25 Id. 26 Id.; see also Courtpoint, Chief Justice John Roberts on the Topic of Writing, YOUTUBE (Mar. 11, 2008), http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZIjBzn7rbPE (interviewing Justice Roberts by Bryan Garner, in which Justice Roberts says that the briefs are more important than the oral argument and that “I don’t think anybody would dispute that”). LONG (DO NOT DELETE) 3/6/2013 9:16 AM 2013] When Justices (Subconsciously) Attack: The Theory of Argumentative Threat 941 and the Supreme Court On the other hand, almost every appellate judge recognizes that appeals are usually decided on the briefs.27 Despite the importance of appellate briefs, there is little scholarship addressing whether appellate writing styles affect appellate outcomes. Previous studies and surveys by other scholars have suggested that judges generally value briefs that are concise and clear. In fact, a survey of 355 federal judges (forty-six percent of sitting federal judges in 1999) concluded that “[t]he overwhelming message from [the] judges is that they want briefs that are concise and clear.”28 Other studies have shown that judges appreciate plain language over legalese29 and that good writing may enhance a lawyer’s credibility.30 But no study, to the Authors’ knowledge, unequivocally finds that a given writing style can demonstrably affect an appellate outcome. For example, in a previously published article entitled, Clearly, Using Intensifiers is Very Bad—Or Is It?,31 the Authors summarized the history and status of scholarly research addressing the use of intensifiers in lawyers’ briefs and courts’ opinions and determined that it is inconclusive as to whether intensifiers actually “intensify” much less whether they can affect an appellate outcome.32 Some studies have found that increased intensifier usage negatively affects the credibility, likeability, and believability of a writer,33 while others have found no effect from a more frequent use of intensifiers, or have  27 D. Franklin Arey, III, Competent Appellate Advocacy and Continuing Legal Education: Fitting the Means to the End, 2 J. APP. PRAC. & PROCESS 27, 36 (2000) (noting that briefs are the primary, and sometimes the only, way of communicating with the court and persuading the judges); Courtpoint, supra note 26. 28 Kristen K. Robbins, The Inside Scoop: What Federal Judges Really Think About the Way Lawyers Write, 8 J. LEGAL WRITING INST. 257, 284 (2002) (noting that judges also want well-organized and well-analyzed briefs). 29 See, e.g., Flammer, supra note 11 (describing a survey showing that most state and federal judges prefer plain language over legalese, and describing three earlier surveys that reached the same result). 30 See Charles A. Bird & Webster Burke Kinnaird, Objective Analysis of Advocacy Preferences and Prevalent Mythologies in One California Appellate Court, 4 J. APP. PRAC. & PROCESS 141, 158 (2002); David Lewis, If You Have Seen One Circuit, Have You Seen Them All? A Comparison of the Advocacy Preferences of Three Federal Circuit Courts of Appeal, 83 DENV. U. L. REV. 893, 917, 929 (2006); Clearly, Using Intensifiers, supra note 9, at 176; see also David Lewis, What’s the Difference? Comparing the Advocacy Preferences of State and Federal Appellate Judges, 7 J. APP. PRAC. & PROCESS 335, 359, 371 (2005). 31 Clearly, Using Intensifiers, supra note 9. 32 See id. at 175–80 & nn.13–44 for an extensive description of the studies addressing intensifiers by various researchers. 33 See id. at 177–80 & nn.20–44. LONG (DO NOT DELETE) 3/6/2013 9:16 AM 942 OREGON LAW REVIEW [Vol. 91, 933 even found a positive effect.34 The Authors’ study found a statistically significant relationship between the frequent use of intensifiers in an appellate brief and the outcome of the appeal: [T]he frequent use of intensifiers in appellate briefs (particularly by an appellant) is usually associated with a statistically significant increase in adverse outcomes for an “offending” party. But—and this was an unexpected result—if an appellate opinion uses a high rate of intensifiers, an appellant’s brief written for that appeal that also uses a high rate of intensifiers is associated with a statistically significant increase in favorable outcomes. Additionally, when a dissenting opinion is written, judges use significantly more intensifiers in both the majority and dissenting opinions. In other words, as things become less clear, judges tend to use “clearly” and “obviously” more often.35 Because intensifier usage was associated with increased adverse outcomes in certain circumstances and with decreased adverse outcomes in other circumstances, the results suggested that there was not a simple causal relationship between the frequency of intensifier use and the outcome of an appeal.36 In fact, the results raised additional questions about the meaning of the statistically significant relationship between intensifier use and the outcome of an appeal. The Authors framed these questions as follows: The results can be interpreted several ways. It may be that . . . overuse of intensifiers actually renders [a brief] suspect and subject to increased skepticism by appellate court judges. . . . Alternatively, it may be that the overuse of intensifiers is accompanied by violations of other writing conventions that further affect the credibility of the brief. Or, it could simply be that appellants or appellees with difficult arguments (arguments that they believe they are likely to lose) tend to lapse into an intensifier-rich mode of writing in an attempt to bolster the perceived weaknesses of an argument. . . . All of these factors may combine to produce the result. Of course, because no causal relationship is shown, it could be a yet-unidentified factor. At the very least, the study suggests the need for further research and a fruitful source of data for performing such research.37 In the end, the Authors hypothesized that any effect was not due to the presence of abundant intensifiers per se; rather, it seemed to be a response—and maybe an irrational response—to a losing argument:  34 See id. 35 Id. at 171–72. 36 Id. at 183–85. 37 Id. at 184–85 (footnote omitted). LONG (DO NOT DELETE) 3/6/2013 9:16 AM 2013] When Justices (Subconsciously) Attack: The Theory of Argumentative Threat 943 and the Supreme Court [I]t could simply be that appellants or appellees with difficult arguments (arguments that they believe they are likely to lose) tend to lapse into an intensifier-rich mode of writing in an attempt to bolster the perceived weaknesses of an argument. This last interpretation is supported by the fact that dissenting opinion writers (who are arguing a losing cause) also tend to use more intensifiers.38 The Authors came to a similar conclusion in a subsequent study that addressed whether a correlation exists between “readability” and success on appeal. That study was described in Does the Readability of Your Brief Affect Your Chance of Winning an Appeal?39 The Authors’ study found that the length of sentences and words, which constitutes “readability” based on the Flesch Reading Ease scale,40 probably does not make much difference in appellate brief writing.41 First, the Authors found that most briefs are written at about the same level of readability; there simply was not much difference in how lawyers wrote appellate briefs when it came to the length of sentences and words.42 Second, the readability of most appellate briefs was well within the reading ability of the highly educated audience of appellate judges and justices.43 Third, the relatively small differences in readability were not related to the outcome of an appeal in a statistically significant manner.44 The study did show, however, that the opinions of judges and justices were less readable than lawyers’ briefs and that the opinions of dissenting judges or justices were the least readable of all the appellate writing analyzed.45 Ultimately, the Authors concluded that  38 Id. at 185. 39 Readability of Your Brief, supra note 9. 40 The Flesch Reading Ease scale and the Flesch-Kincaid Grade Level scale are two of many mathematic readability formulas used to determine whether one text is easier to read than another. DUBAY, supra note 11. The various readability formulas use differing semantic and syntactic factors to assess readability; the Flesch formulas use the number of syllables and the number of sentences in a selected 100-word sample to determine the readability of a text. Id. The theory is that more multi-syllabic words and longer sentences make a text more difficult to read. For a brief, but thorough and well-researched, explanation of readability formulas, their history and their use, see Readability of Your Brief, supra note 9, at 148–54 & nn.9–42. 41 Readability of Your Brief, supra note 9, at 159–62. 42 Id. at 160. 43 Id. 44 Id. at 156–57. 45 Id. at 157–58. LONG (DO NOT DELETE) 3/6/2013 9:16 AM 944 OREGON LAW REVIEW [Vol. 91, 933 readability, as determined by the Flesch Reading Ease scale, was a non-issue for legal writing at the appellate level.46 Although readability did not appear to be related to outcome, there was a mild (but not statistically significant) difference between the readability of the courts’ majority and dissenting opinions (p-value = 0.0772).47 Dissenting opinions were somewhat less readable than majority opinions, but the difference was not nearly as pronounced as were the differences in intensifier rates.48 So, the verdict on whether writing can affect appellate court outcomes is, thus far, a “no.” Nevertheless, this Article proposes that the statistically significant difference between winners and losers constitutes a subconscious, irrational response to a perceived weak, or losing, argument. This difference manifests itself in an intensifier-rich mode of writing and (possibly) writing in a less readable style (longer words and sentences) by the losers. In other words, the theory of argumentative threat proposes that frequent intensifier use and writing with longer sentences and words is “loser language”; it reflects a defensive emotional response to an expected (in the case of a lawyer)—or known (in the case of a judge)—adverse result in an appellate case. Both lawyers and judges react similarly to the effect of argumentative threat. This theory is illustrated by analyzing majority and dissenting opinions of the United States Supreme Court.  46 Id. at 159–62. 47 The definition of p-value is the probability of observing a test statistic at least as extreme as the one observed, given the null hypothesis. Consequently, a small p-value implies that such a large observed difference in mean intensifier rates is very unlikely to be due to chance alone. This p-value was based on a test of the difference between two means that was proposed by Morrison in 1973. The Morrison test is a variation on the commonly- used paired t test, but it enables a paired comparison (i.e., dissent vs. majority) when some cases are missing a measurement on one of the variables in the pair. Because some Supreme Court cases have a majority opinion but no dissent, the Morrison test was most appropriate here. See Donald F. Morrison, A Test for Equality of Means of Correlated Variates with Missing Data on One Response, 60 BIOMETRIKA 101, 101–05 (1973). 48 Compare Clearly, Using Intensifiers, supra note 9, at 188 (intensifier usage differences in briefs and opinions) with Readability of Your Brief, supra note 9, at158–59 (readability differences in briefs and opinions). LONG (DO NOT DELETE) 3/6/2013 9:16 AM 2013] When Justices (Subconsciously) Attack: The Theory of Argumentative Threat 945 and the Supreme Court II THE THEORY OF ARGUMENTATIVE THREAT49 Scientists and scholars have conclusively shown that humans respond physiologically and psychologically to perceived threat. This response is often called the “fight-or-flight” response.50 The threat need not be “real” in order to elicit the “fight-or-flight” response.51 Any perceived threat can actuate fight or flight. One manifestation of the “fight-or-flight” response may be linguistic in nature. Linguists and other language scholars have found that people who feel threatened may also speak and write in a manner that is demonstrably different from how the same people would speak or write in the absence of a threat.52 The Authors’ theory of argumentative threat applies the linguistic response to threat concept to appellate briefs and opinions. This Article argues that in their briefs and opinions, lawyers and judges seem to react linguistically to a perceived threat. This section first addresses current theories of linguistic response to threat. It then presents the Authors’ study of Supreme Court opinions as an example of argumentative threat, and shows how the Supreme Court Justices’ response to argumentative threat is consistent with other social psychology theories. In essence, the Justices may respond to perceived threats just like everybody else.  49 The term “argumentative threat” was spawned by the term “social threat,” as used by Allen Liska and others in the book, SOCIAL THREAT AND SOCIAL CONTROL. The theory of social threat generally posits that attempts to control criminal conduct by a majority population increase as the percentage of a minority population increases—regardless of whether the increase in minority population is associated with an overall increase in crime. SOCIAL THREAT AND SOCIAL CONTROL passim (Allen E. Liska ed., 1992). Social threat theory has little application to argumentative threat theory other than both theories suggest that the reaction to a perceived threat may be irrational; the reaction does not appropriately address the perceived threat and may, in fact, be counterproductive. 50 Stress: Constant Stress Puts Your Health at Risk, supra note 5; Julia Layton, How Fear Works, HOWSTUFFWORKS, http://science.howstuffworks.com/life/fear2.htm (last visited Feb. 6, 2013). A more expansive view of “fight or flight” is offered by cultural anthropologist Ernest Becker. In his book THE DENIAL OF DEATH, Becker argues “that of all things that move man, one of the principal ones is his terror of death,” ERNEST BECKER, THE DENIAL OF DEATH 11 (1973), which is “all-consuming . . . when we look it full in the face,” id. at 15. While his theory is not directly applicable to argumentative threat, they do share the common idea that we behave subconsciously in ways to protect ourselves from threats. 51 Robert Sapolsky, Taming Stress, SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, AT 87, 88 (Sept., 2003). 52 See infra Part II.A. and accompanying notes. LONG (DO NOT DELETE) 3/6/2013 9:16 AM 946 OREGON LAW REVIEW [Vol. 91, 933 A. Linguistic Responses to Perceived Threats One way humans react defensively is through changes in their use of language. Some of these changes are subtle and may not even be consciously implemented. For example, social psychologists Jeroen Vaes and Robert A. Wicklund found that this defensive reaction may affect how people speak: “[A] general relevant threat can motivate people in a linguistic multiculture to conform more rigidly to their own language, and hence accentuate their own linguistic singularity.”53 In Norway, there are two official languages; one is used primarily by the rural population (Nynorsk) and the other by the urban population (Bokmål).54 Vaes and Wicklund’s experiment involved an experimenter posing as a foreigner in Norway seeking help in editing a postcard to his or her Norwegian cousin.55 The postcard was a response to a fax from the uncle.56 The participants, who were all urban Norwegians (Bokmål speakers), received one of two faxes.57 The first contained a positive comment about Norwegian educational and ecological policies.58 The second contained a negative comment about the same policies and stated that the Swedish policy was better.59 The postcard mixed Nynorsk and Bokmål.60 As predicted, the participants changed the Nynorsk to Bokmål more than twice as often when responding to the negative fax.61 Vaes and Wicklund conclude that the experiment showed “a general cultural threat produce[d] a defensive, narrowing reaction” that caused the participants to emphasize their own language rather than the other Norwegian language.62 The phenomenon described by Vaes and Wicklund is generally referred to as “linguistic intergroup bias.” Other studies addressing linguistic intergroup bias have similarly suggested that language changes in response to a perceived threat, in particular, a perceived threat to a person’s social identity. Generally, these studies show that  53 Jeroen Vaes & Robert A. Wicklund, General Threat Leading to Defensive Reactions: A Field Experiment on Linguistic Features, 41 BRIT. J. SOC. PSYCHOL. 271, 271 (2002). 54 Id. at 273–74. 55 Id. at 274–75. 56 Id. at 275. 57 Id. 58 Id. 59 Id. 60 Id. at 275. 61 Id. at 276–77. 62 Id. at 277. LONG (DO NOT DELETE) 3/6/2013 9:16 AM 2013] When Justices (Subconsciously) Attack: The Theory of Argumentative Threat 947 and the Supreme Court individuals tend to utilize broad, abstract, and intangible concepts whenever they describe positive acts committed by members of their social identity and negative acts committed by members of a rival collective. In contrast, they refer to specific, tangible details whenever they describe negative acts committed by members of their social identity and positive acts committed by members of a rival collective.63 The idea is that those who agree with us are generally good, and therefore we use general terms indicating that their good acts pervade the entire group and are the norm. Conversely, a bad act is described with specificity so as to limit its application to the specific situation. Studies addressing linguistic intergroup bias have shown that when a group-threatening statement has been made by hunters against environmentalists, or by environmentalists against hunters, the “linguistic differentiation in favor of one’s own group was much greater when an in-group-threatening message had been delivered.”64 So, a hunter may be described by another hunter as “hurting somebody,” while an environmentalist would be described by a hunter as being “aggressive.”65 In simpler terms, language is limited to a specific incident for the in-group, but is generalized for the out- group. Interestingly, the hunters “showed a more pronounced [linguistic intergroup bias] than environmentalists.”66 Other linguistic intergroup bias studies have found the same effect between northern and southern Italians.67 Another study that hits closer to home for academics found that university professors are also subject to linguistic intergroup bias. Professors wrote “nicer” replies to “accidentally” misdirected emails when they believed the sender was from the professor’s own university.68 B. Justices’ Responses to Perceived Threats Lawyers and judges also react defensively when the lawyers believe they are likely to lose a case, or, when the judges are writing a  63 Linquistic Biases, PSYCHLOPEDIA (Jan. 2, 2011), http://www.psych-it.com.au /Psychlopedia/article.asp?id=407. 64 Anne Maass et al., Linguistic Intergroup Bias: Evidence for In-Group-Protective Motivation, 71 J. PERSONALITY & SOC. PSYCHOL. 512, 516 (1996). 65 Id. at 512. 66 Id. at 516. 67 Id. at 523. 68 Jeroen Vaes et al., On the Behavioral Consequences of Infrahumanization: The Implicit Role of Uniquely Human Emotions in Intergroup Relations, 85 J. PERSONALITY & SOC. PSYCHOL. 1016, 1020 (2003). LONG (DO NOT DELETE) 3/6/2013 9:16 AM 948 OREGON LAW REVIEW [Vol. 91, 933 dissent (and know that they are losing). The Authors hypothesize that this defensive reaction, at least in part, takes the form of increasing the use of intensifiers and (maybe to a lesser degree) by using longer words and sentences. For judges, this increased use of intensifiers could be a form of linguistic intergroup bias in the sense that a dissenting judge, alienated from the majority, seeks to show that the dissenting argument is “obviously,” “clearly,” and “wholly” superior to the opinion of what is now the dissenter’s out-group, the majority. The increased use of intensifiers and the use of long sentences and words could be a subconscious attempt at showing the “strength” of the dissenter’s argument—even though the dissenter consciously knows that using more intensifiers is negatively perceived by judges and legal readers in general. While the Authors found this defensive increase in intensifier use at all levels of appellate practice among lawyers and judges,69 the United States Supreme Court Justices provide a particularly interesting example of the defensive response that occurs when a Justice is in the minority and writes a dissenting opinion. The Justices all write “worse,” in some sense, when writing a dissenting opinion. As part of their previous studies, the Authors analyzed 266 cases from the United States Supreme Court, in which the Court issued at least one opinion.70 After considering all briefs associated with these cases, and eliminating any opinions that were too short to yield reliable quantitative text assessment, a total of 526 opinions were analyzed.71 The same intensifiers used in the Authors’ intensifier article analysis (“very,” “obviously,” “clearly,” “patently,” “absolutely,” “really,” “plainly,” “undoubtedly,” “certainly,” “totally,” “simply,” and “wholly”) were again used and every effort was made to exclude the selected intensifiers when they were not used as intensifiers. For example, intensifiers used as legal terms of art, such as “clearly erroneous,” were not used. The Authors used a test of statistical significance to evaluate the difference between intensifier use in the Court’s majority and  69 Clearly, Using Intensifiers, supra note 9, at 181–84. 70 The cases analyzed were from February 21, 2006 to June 9, 2009. The 266 Supreme Court opinions included the opinions written from the time Justice Alito first participated in an opinion of the Court on February 21, 2006, through the opinion of the Court issued on June 28, 2007. 71 The database includes only cases in which the Court issued an opinion. Opinions or briefs less than 500 words in length were not included for analysis. LONG (D 2013] disse same Th more 0.000 diffe diffe there studi style time Fig  72 S 73 T variati majori not all See M 74 A in mea that th mean O NOT DELETE) When Justices ( nting opinion 266 cases us e statistical t intensifiers 004).73 Suc rence in int rence in inten would be e es in a millio for each of t period. ure 1. Compar circles) ee DUBAY, supr his p-value was on on the stand ty) when observ majority opinion orrison, supra no s stated supra n n intensifier rate e mean intensifi intensifier rate fo Subconsciously) and th s. The Auth ing the Flesc est showed th , when writ h a small p ensifier rate sifier rates b vidence of n. Figure 1 g he nine Justic ison of majorit in terms of inten a note 11, at 22– based on a tes ard t test which ations are missin s are accompani te 47, at 101–05 ote 47, a small p- s is very unlikely er rate for disse r majority opinio Attack: The Theo e Supreme Cour ors also analy h-Kincaid Gr at the Justic ing a dissen -value is st s.74 In fact, etween majo a difference raphically de es writing op y opinions (op sifier rates and 23; supra note 40 t of the differen enables the pai g on one of the ed by dissents, th . value implies tha to be due to ch nting opinions i ns. ry of Argumenta t zed the read ade Level fo es write “wor ting opinion rong eviden if there is rity opinions this strong picts the chan inions durin en circles) with Flesch Kincaid and accompany ce between two red comparisons measures in som is test was most t such a large ob ance alone. The s significantly d 3/6/2013 9:16 AM tive Threat 94 ability of the rmula.72 se,” by using (p-value = ce of a rea actually no and dissents in only fou ge in writing g the studies dissents (solid Grade Level. ing text. means that is (i.e., dissent vs e cases. Becaus appropriate here served differenc Authors conclud ifferent from th 9 l , r ’ a . e . e e e l l l l ll l l l 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 14 .0 14 .5 15 .0 15 .5 Intensifier Rate (per 1,000 words) Fl es ch K in ca id G ra de L ev e l l l l l l l l l l Alito Breyer Ginsburg Kennedy Roberts Scalia Souter Stevens Thomas LONG (DO NOT DELETE) 3/6/2013 9:16 AM 950 OREGON LAW REVIEW [Vol. 91, 933 As shown in Figure 1, all nine Justices use more intensifiers when writing a dissenting opinion. Seven of the nine Justices write in a less readable style when writing a dissenting opinion.75 While the difference in means between majority and dissenting opinions is large (0.82 intensifiers per 1,000 words for majority opinions vs. 1.19 for dissents, p-value = 0.000004), the corresponding difference in mean Flesch Readability scores (30.53 for majority vs. 29.50 for dissents, p- value = 0.0772) is not statistically significant. Even with large differences in mean intensifier rates from majority to dissenting opinions, it is also important to note that rates within each type of opinion still exhibit a reasonable degree of variability. This is depicted by the boxplots76 shown in Figure 2 where it is shown that even the most intensifier-prone Justices have also written intensifier-free opinions. Similarly, even the most intensifier-averse Justice (Justice Ginsburg) has written individual opinions that are in the top fifteen percent of intensifier-laden majority opinions and the top twenty-five percent of intensifier-laden dissents.  75 The estimated Flesch Kincaid Grade Level is meant to roughly correspond to the level of difficulty, so that a grade level of 12.0 indicates the expected reading level of a person in twelfth grade and a grade level of 15.0 indicates the expected reading level of a third-year college student. Higher values of the Kincaid Grade Level are associated with texts containing longer words and longer sentences. 76 A boxplot illustrates the distribution of an observed variable. The lower and upper ends of the box denote the twenty-fifth and seventy-fifth percentiles of the variable’s distribution, with the line in the middle of the box denoting the median (i.e., the middle observation). The whiskers extending from the lower and upper ends of the box denote the observations in the lowest and highest quartiles of the data; the circles appearing beyond the ends of the whiskers denote unusually large or small values (which are typically referred to in statistical analysis as “outliers”). LONG (D 2013] Fi A inten to th subc inten are u It vote” argum “best usag disse disse writi that h are a throu  77 B WRITI O NOT DELETE) When Justices ( gure 2. Distrib intensi ccording to sifier-rich lan eir losing onsciously (a sifier in an a sed in an atte is interestin on the Co entative thr ” written op e and mode nt; he show nting opinion ng a dissenti e does not li cop-out. . . gh the conc ryan A. Garner NG 79, 92–93 (20 Subconsciously) and th ution of majo fier rates for eac the argumen guage and lo status. Alie nd irrationa ttempt to bo mpt to prove g to note th urt, appears eat. His majo inions, but h rately decre s the greate —more than ng opinion. ke adverbs. A . [I]f you d lusion of yo , Interview, Jus 10). Attack: The Theo e Supreme Cour rity (green) h Justice. tative threat nger words a nated from lly) resorts t lster the los superiority in at Justice K to be the rity opinion e dramaticall ases his rea st response doubling hi This tendenc ccording to on’t use the ur sentence.” tice Anthony M. ry of Argumenta t and dissenting theory, the nd sentences the majorit o the univer ing argumen the losing e ennedy, ofte Justice most s are, intensi y increases h dability whe to threat wh s use of inte y is contrary Justice Kenn m, it forces 77 Due to a Kennedy, 13 S 3/6/2013 9:16 AM tive Threat 95 (red) opinion Justices use as a reaction y, a Justice sally panned t. Intensifier ffort. n the “swing affected by fier-wise, the is intensifie n writing a en writing a nsifiers when to his claim edy, “adverb you to think rgumentative CRIBES J. LEGAL 1 s r s LONG (DO NOT DELETE) 3/6/2013 9:16 AM 952 OREGON LAW REVIEW [Vol. 91, 933 threat, it appears to be difficult for him to follow his own advice when writing a dissent. In order to better compare the Justice’s intensifier rates, the Authors considered two additional measures. The first is an aggregate measure of intensifier usage that the Authors denote the Standardized Intensifier Rate (SIR). The SIR is necessary because some Justices write for the majority more often than others. For example, during the Authors’ study period, Justice Kennedy wrote more than seven times as many words for majority opinions as for dissents. At the other end of the spectrum, Justice Souter’s total dissenting opinion word count is only forty percent larger than his majority opinion word count. Consequently, comparing average intensifier rates for all briefs is not a reasonable approach for evaluating relative tendency toward intensifier usage. The database of Supreme Court opinions considered here comprises text from a mix of majority opinions (59% of the database’s words), concurrences (8%), and dissents (33%). To equitably compare a majority-heavy writer like Justice Kennedy with a dissent-heavy writer like Justice Souter, the SIR was created, which weights each Justice’s intensifier rates for majority, concurring, and dissenting opinions using the 59%-8%-33% split found in the database. Thus, the SIR is the simplest measure for overall intensifier usage. The second measure used to compare Justices’ intensifier rate is the “Threat-Related Intensifier Rate Increase” (TIRI)—or the “Jekyll- Hyde” index. The TIRI is the increase in intensifier rate that a Justice exhibits when changing from a majority opinion to a dissent. An illustration of each Justice’s SIR and TIRI is shown in Figure 3. After Justice Kennedy’s most dramatic response to argumentative threat, Justice Scalia claims second place among Justices most affected by argumentative threat, and Justice Thomas narrowly edges out former Justice Souter for third place. Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Scalia use many more intensifiers relative to the other Justices, but Justice Scalia leaves all the Justices behind with the volume of his intensifiers in both majority and dissenting opinions. Justice Scalia’s majority intensifier rate is higher than four of the Justices’ dissenting rates and his TIRI rate is the second highest among all Justices. Therefore, Justice Scalia appears to be particularly subject to the subconscious effects of argumentative threat. LONG (D 2013] Fig Fi inten advic Addr Law, brief s t b t  78 R http://w .html Jr.). O NOT DELETE) When Justices ( ure 3. Standard Increase gure 3 also sifiers relativ e on avoidin essing studen the Chief Ju s submitted to “We get hu ame,” . . . . “ he cases clear lah. And you hey clearly de How about . . . “I mean, if i obert Barnes, ww.washington (second, third, an Subconsciously) and th ized Intensifie for each of the shows that C e to the rest g the use o ts and facult stice comme the Suprem ndreds and h Somebody say ly do this, the pick up the ot serve to win.” a little recogni t was an easy Chief Justice C post.com/wp-dy d fourth empha Attack: The Theo e Supreme Cour r Rate versus Supreme Court hief Justice of the Court f intensifiers y at Northwe nted on the u e Court: undreds of br s, ‘My client language clear her side and, l tion that it’s a case, we would ounsels Humility n/content/article/ sis added) (quoti ry of Argumenta t Threat-related Justices. Roberts’s h seems to ig in Supreme stern Univers se of intens iefs, and they clearly deserv ly reads this,’ o and behold, tough job? n’t have it.”78 , WASH. POST 2007/02/05/AR2 ng Chief Justice 3/6/2013 9:16 AM tive Threat 95 Intensifier Rat eavier use o nore his own Court cases ity School o ifiers in lega ’re all the es to win, blah, blah they think (Feb. 6, 2007) 007020501297 John G. Robert 3 e f . f l , s l l l l l l l l l 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 0. 0 0. 2 0. 4 0. 6 0. 8 Standardized Intensifier Rate (SIR) Th re at −r el at ed In te ns ifie r R at e In cr ea se (T IR I) Alito Breyer Ginsburg Kennedy Roberts Scalia Souter Stevens Thomas "Somebody says, 'My client clearly deserves to win, the cases clearly do this, the language clearly reads this,' blah, blah blah." "You’ll harm your credibility−− you’ll be written off as blowhard−−if you characterize the case as a lead−pipe cinch . . . " LONG (DO NOT DELETE) 3/6/2013 9:16 AM 954 OREGON LAW REVIEW [Vol. 91, 933 Similarly, Figure 3 shows that Justice Scalia’s use of intensifiers seems to contradict advice he offered to legal writers: “You’ll harm your credibility—you’ll be written off as a blowhard—if you characterize the case as a lead-pipe cinch with nothing to be said for the other side. Even if you think that to be true, and even if you’re right, keep it to yourself.”79 Chief Justice Roberts’s and Justice Scalia’s heavier use of intensifiers violates the advice of almost every legal writing scholar, the advice of the Justices themselves, and it renders their dissenting opinions less clear and less credible. However, according to the theory of argumentative threat, the Justices’ defensive posture is to be expected as a normal response to a perceived threat. Nevertheless, at least two researchers theorize that this type of language renders the Justices’ opinions more clear (and, therefore, perhaps more credible). The authors of Justices and Legal Clarity: Analyzing the Complexity of U.S. Supreme Court Opinions80 agree with other researchers, and the Authors, that Justice “Scalia employs ‘distinctly different rhetorical styles depending on whether he is in the majority or dissent,’” and that when he is in the dissent he “‘becomes strident and contentious.’”81 But the authors then claim that “all [J]ustices write clearer dissents than majority opinions.”82 The Authors’ research shows the opposite: the Justices use “clearly” more often as things become less clear (as evidenced by the existence of a dissent). And, the reason for the difference is, in part, because the Authors (and most other legal writing scholars) claim that using more intensifiers adds nothing to an argument, or can even have a negative effect on the argument. Therefore, if anything, adding an intensifier would render an argument less clear. The authors of Justices and Legal Clarity, on the other hand, theorize that “words like always, absolutely, and clearly, . . . measure [the degree of] how confident one is about something.”83 Generally, higher levels of certainty correspond with expressing or portraying issues less  79 ANTONIN SCALIA & BRYAN A. GARNER, MAKING YOUR CASE: THE ART OF PERSUADING JUDGES 13 (2008). 80 Ryan J. Owens & Justin P. Wedeking, Justices and Legal Clarity: Analyzing the Complexity of U.S. Supreme Court Opinions, 45 LAW & SOC’Y REV. 1027 (2011). 81 Id. at 1033 (quoting Edward L. Rubin, Question Regarding D.C. v. Heller: As a Justice, Antonin Scalia Is (A) Great, (B) Acceptable, (C) Injudicious, 54 WAYNE L. REV. 1105, 1130 (2008)). 82 Id. at 1027. 83 Id. at 1056. LONG (DO NOT DELETE) 3/6/2013 9:16 AM 2013] When Justices (Subconsciously) Attack: The Theory of Argumentative Threat 955 and the Supreme Court complex.84 If more intensifiers make an argument more clear, it is not surprising that the authors of Justices and Legal Clarity would conclude that Justice Scalia is the most clear opinion writer and Justice Ginsburg is the least.85 The Authors’ research, on the other hand, implies the opposite. Justice Ginsburg writes more readable opinions, uses less intensifiers, and is therefore the more clear and credible writer. It is notable that, unlike Justice Scalia, Justice Ginsburg is rather consistent in her writing style across majority and dissenting opinions—she feels almost no argumentative threat.86 The Authors are on the same page as the Justices and Legal Clarity authors, however, in our mutual agreement that longer words lead to less clear opinions.87 In addition to being consistent with theories of linguistic intergroup bias, the Justices’ TIRI may also be consistent with other similar social psychology theories, which address differences between “conservatives” and “liberals.” As a group, the conservative Justices use substantially more intensifiers than the liberals and also seem to feel more threatened when writing for the dissent than do the liberals. It is impossible to say whether this tendency is a phenomenon unique to these nine individuals or whether it is due to differences in conservative versus liberal approaches to legal reasoning. But the phenomenon may be due to the general tendency of conservatives to react differently to a perceived threat than liberals. Or it may be that the liberals (more often in the minority during the study period) have had—to their chagrin—more practice in writing measured dissents. The results, with respect to the liberal and conservative groups of Justices, seem to be consistent with the theories of Social Dominance Orientation and Right Wing Authoritarianism. Both theories posit that conservatives tend to accept or embrace a more authoritarian position in response to threat.88 The increased use of intensifiers could also be  84 Id. 85 Id. at 1043. 86 Id. at 1043–45; supra Figures 1, 2. 87 Owens & Wedeking, supra note 80, at 1056. 88 See, e.g., Bob Altemeyer, The Other “Authoritarian Personality,” 30 ADVANCES EXPERIMENTAL SOC. PSYCHOL. 47 (1998); Richard M. Doty et al., Threat and Authoritarianism in the United States, 1978–1987, 61 J. PERSONALITY & SOC. PSYCHOL. 629 (1991); John Duckitt & Kirstin Fisher, The Impact of Social Threat on Worldview and Ideological Attitudes, 24 POL. PSYCHOL. 199 (2003); Miriam Matthews et al., A Longitudinal Test of the Model of Political Conservatism as Motivated Social Cognition, 30 POL. PSYCHOL. 921 (2009); Stephen M. Sales, Threat as a Factor in Authoritarianism: An Analysis of Archival Data, 28 J. PERSONALITY & SOC. PSYCHOL. 44 (1973). But see LONG (DO NOT DELETE) 3/6/2013 9:16 AM 956 OREGON LAW REVIEW [Vol. 91, 933 understood as an increased use of authority in response to threat. The linguistic intergroup bias study on hunters and environmentalists discussed above noted a “more pronounced” linguistic intergroup bias among the hunters.89 This interpretation of the study, however, assumes that hunters tend to be more conservative than environmentalists. Apart from argumentative threat, a Justice’s view of the role of a dissent could also influence the number of intensifiers used. Justice Ginsburg views the role of a dissent as a chance to speak “when important matters are at stake.”90 On the other hand, for Justice Scalia, the most important reason for dissenting is that it “renders the profession of a judge . . . more enjoyable.”91 Justice Scalia further noted, To be able to write an opinion solely for oneself, without the need to accommodate, to any degree whatever, the more-or-less-differing views of one’s colleagues; to address precisely the points of law that one considers important and no others; to express precisely the degree of quibble, or foreboding, or disbelief, or indignation that one believes the majority’s disposition should engender—that is indeed an unparalleled pleasure.92 While both Justice Ginsburg and Justice Scalia believe that a dissent should be reserved for important matters, Justice Scalia seems to relish the opportunity to “stick it to the majority” when addressing important matters. This may, in part, account for his higher use of intensifiers when dissenting. The Justices’ reactions to argumentative threat are also consistent with the Justices’ opinions in two recent—and significant—Supreme Court cases: Citizens United93 and National Federation of Independent Business v. Sebelius94 (Obamacare). In both opinions, the majority and dissent opinion writers stay close to their overall trends. The graph in Figure 4 illustrates how the intensifier rates  Kimberly Rios Morrison & Oscar Ybarra, Symbolic Threat and Social Dominance Among Liberals and Conservatives: SDO Reflects Conformity to Political Values, 39 EUR. J. SOC. PSYCHOL. 1039, 1050–51 (2009) (suggesting that “the seemingly egalitarian responses that highly identified, hierarchy-attenuating group members demonstrate under threat may be, in a sense, group-serving biases in disguise”). 89 Anne Maass et al., supra note 64, at 516. 90 Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Lecture, The Role of Dissenting Opinions, 95 MINN. L. REV. 1, 7 (2010). 91 Antonin Scalia, Dissents, ORG. AM. HISTORIANS MAG. HIST., Fall 1998, at 18, 22. 92 Id. at 22–23. 93 Citizens United v. FEC, 130 S. Ct. 876 (2010). 94 Nat’l Fed’n of Indep. Bus. v. Sebelius, No. 11-393 (U.S. June 28, 2012). LONG (D 2013] assoc mean Robe than Fig Th a dis Craw The disse betw Thom sugg Robe  95 J 1, 201 -views O NOT DELETE) When Justices ( iated with t intensifier r rts’s majority his average I ure 4. Intensifi (asterisk majority (solid ci is result sug senting opin ford,95 he w IR in the O nting Justice een the mea as, and Ken ested, the d rts’s pre-swi an Crawford, Ro 2, 1:29 PM), ht -to-uphold-healt Subconsciously) and th hese two rec ates. Note th opinion in R for majorit er rates for th s) in the contex opinion IRs (o rcles) are plotte gests that eve ion, as sugge rote a non-d bamacare joi s’ mean IRs n IRs of the nedy). Or, p issenting Ju tch dissentin berts Switched V tp://www.cbsnew h-care-law/. Attack: The Theo e Supreme Cour ent cases co at the Inten Obamacare ( y opinions (m e Obamacare t of the Justice pen circles) an d for each of the n if Justice R sted by CBS efensive maj nt dissent is for the entir four Justic erhaps, as on stices used g opinion fo iews to Uphold H s.com/8301-346 ry of Argumenta t mpare with sifier Rate (I IR=1.10) wa ean IR=1.26 and Citizens U s’ mean intensi d mean dissent Justices. oberts starte news corre ority opinio also consis e study peri es (Justices e unidentifie most of C r the first thr ealth Care Law 0_162-57464549 3/6/2013 9:16 AM tive Threat 95 the Justices R) of Justice s slightly les ). nited opinion fier rates. Mean ing opinion IR d out writing spondent Jan n in the end tent with the od, falling in Scalia, Alito d source ha hief Justice ee-fourths o , CBSNEWS (July /roberts-switched 7 ’ s s s . , s f l l l l l l l l 0. 0 0. 5 1. 0 1. 5 In te ns ifie r R at e (pe r 1 ,00 0 w o rd s) Majority Dissent l l l l l l l l Alito Breyer Ginsburg Kennedy Roberts Scalia Souter Stevens Thomas Kennedy: Citizen's United Roberts: Obamacare Stevens: Citizen's United Scalia: Obamacare LONG (DO NOT DELETE) 3/6/2013 9:16 AM 958 OREGON LAW REVIEW [Vol. 91, 933 the joint dissent.96 Jan Crawford’s sources, which claim that the dissenters “divided up parts of the opinion, with Kennedy and Scalia doing the bulk of the writing,”97 appears to be the most likely scenario based on the dissenting opinion’s IR. Justice Kennedy’s Citizens United majority opinion tracks his average IR almost perfectly, while Justice Stevens appears more defensive than his average IR for dissents. These findings are consistent with the well-known fact that Justice Stevens was (and remains) particularly bitter about the Court’s decision in Citizens United.98 He even took the unusual step of reading parts of his dissent on the day the opinion was announced.99 The statistically significant propensity for a Justice to increase his usage of intensifiers when on the losing end of the argument is illustrated in Figures 1, 2, and 4. Figure 3 shows that although each Justice has his or her own mean rate of intensifier usage, both Justices with relatively low standardized intensifier rates (e.g., Justice Kennedy) and Justices with relatively high standardized intensifier rates (e.g., Justice Scalia) are capable of dramatic increases in intensifier usage when experiencing argumentative threat. Although this Article focuses on Supreme Court Justices’ use of intensifiers, the Authors believe that the theory of argumentative threat applies equally to lawyers who think they may be writing a losing brief. However, it should be noted that lawyers may have an additional rationale, apart from an emotional defensive response to a perceived losing argument, for writing differently in a losing brief. Lawyers writing a brief in an appeal that they think they may lose may also be writing in an intensifier-rich and less readable manner to impress their client and show the client that they are being strident and intellectual in an effort to win the case. Even so, this possible rationale would still constitute a defensive response to threat. CONCLUSION Legal readers do not like intensifiers, long sentences, and long words. Nevertheless, when the legal reader becomes the legal writer  96 Paul Campos, Roberts Wrote Both Obamacare Opinions, SALON.COM (July 3, 2012, 6:13 PM), http://www.salon.com/2012/07/03/roberts_wrote_both_obamacare_opinions/. 97 Crawford, supra note 95. 98 See Mike Sacks, Citizens United Attacks from Justice Stevens Continue, HUFFINGTON POST (May 31, 2012, 2:44 PM), http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05 /30/citizens-united-justice-stevens_n_1557721.html. 99 Id. LONG (DO NOT DELETE) 3/6/2013 9:16 AM 2013] When Justices (Subconsciously) Attack: The Theory of Argumentative Threat 959 and the Supreme Court and feels threatened with losing an appeal, or being on the dissenting side of a judicial opinion, the threatened legal writer will subconsciously resort to using more intensifiers, and maybe longer words and longer sentences, in an irrational attempt to “attack” the winning side, or to defend the losing argument. This response is explained by the Authors’ theory of argumentative threat, and the study presented in this Article supports that theory; alienated from the majority, a Supreme Court Justice subconsciously (and irrationally) resorts to the universally censured intensifier in an attempt to bolster the losing argument. The theory of argumentative threat is consistent with social psychology theories suggesting that language use changes in response to a perceived threat. More research needs to be done to further explore the impact of argumentative threat on legal writing. For example, research is needed to ascertain whether judges can actually sense the losing nature of a brief by its increased use of intensifiers. Nevertheless, it is fair to conclude that winners and losers do write differently in appellate briefs and opinions depending on the perceived threat to the writer’s legal argument. As a practical matter, it may be constructive to consider these differences when writing appellate (and by extrapolation trial) briefs and opinions. It may also be helpful to track personal intensifier usage patterns in both winning and losing briefs, or majority and dissenting opinions, to examine the extent to which a brief or an opinion reveals any subconscious reaction to argumentative threat. LONG (DO NOT DELETE) 3/6/2013 9:16 AM 960 OREGON LAW REVIEW [Vol. 91, 933