Oregon Regional Economic Indexes TM April 2019 Review Regional measures of economic activity generally softened in April. Still, for sponsored by all regions covered by this report, raw and moving average measures (which 0-W®sm ooth monthly volatility) were above zero, indicating an above-trend pace KeyBank of activity (trend activity differs across regions). A wide range of indicators contributed to the slowdown evident in the Portland and Central Oregon regions. In particular, slower job growth across major sectors yielded generally How can I interpret the negative contributions from the employment components. While employment measures? in other regions was more mixed and unemployment remains low, slower labor A reading of “zero” corresponds force growth weighs down most regional indicators. Home construction activity to the average growth rate for was generally softer. Housing permits made positive contributions in only the that particular region. In other Portland area and Central Oregon; even those gains remain muted compared words, the measures identify periods of fast or slow growth to past cycles. Low levels of initial unemployment claims suggested continued relative to trend. job growth is most likely for Portland and Eugene areas; an uptick in Central Oregon claims again resulted in an only small positive contribution from that What is the significance component. Municipal waste activity picked up, suggesting firming in underlying of the moving-average measures? activity that may become evident in the data more broadly later in the year. The monthly measures can be Cooff'n11ttrilbu1tli:oions to RIReegiofnf'laili Iifnf'ldexes –- April 2019 very volatile, and volatility will increase for smaller regions or those with less data included in the estimation process. To reduce the noise, it is helpful to focus on the average of the most recent data. For the larger areas, Portland, Eugene–Springfield, and Bend, a three-month moving New Private Housing Units Authorized by Permits 0.08 -0.06 0.10 -0.03 -0.03 average is sufficient to remove Educational and Health Services Employment 0.00 0.06 -0.02 -0.01 -0.05 the noise. For Rogue Valley and Financial Activities Employment 0.07 0.09 -0.02 -0.13 -0.04 Salem, a six-month moving Government Employment 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.01 average is required. Information Employment 0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.02 -0.01 Leisure and Hospitality Employment -0.04 0.06 -0.04 -0.01 0.02 Is this approach used Manufacturing Employment 0.02 0.06 -0.02 0.05 0.00 elsewhere? Construction Employment -0.04 0.01 -0.03 -0.08 0.16 Yes, the Chicago Federal Professional and Business Services Employment -0.03 0.04 -0.08 -0.01 -0.02 Reserve Bank uses the same Other Services Employment -0.09 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.07 basic approach to measure both Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Employment -0.12 0.07 -0.07 -0.02 -0.45 national and regional economic Civilian Labor Force -0.02 0.05 -0.04 -0.08 -0.10 activity. Unemployment Rate 0.14 0.24 0.23 0.34 0.37 Lodging Revenue, Inflation Adjusted 0.00 0.00 -0.02 0.01 Airport Passengers -0.01 0.03 0.00 -0.02 Contact Initial Unemployment Claims 0.17 0.20 0.04 Residential Units Sold 0.08 0.21 0.18 0.50 Timothy A. Duy Municipal Waste 0.15 0.36 0.28 Director, Oregon Economic Forum Home Price Index -0.03 Department of Economics University of Oregon Total 0.35 1.40 0.49 0.05 0.30 541-346-4660 · duy@uoregon.edu Moving Average of Recent Observations 0.35 0.87 0.34 0.40 1.08 econforum.uoregon .edu oregon economic UNIVERSITY OF forum 0 OREGON Portland-Vancouver- Beaverton Eugene-Springfield Central Oregon Rogue Valley Salem Oregon Regional Economic Indexes TM April 2019 Portland Metro Measure of Economic Activity Three-Month Moving Average in Black, US Recessions in Gray 2 0 Portland Metro -2 -4 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Eugene-Springfield Measure of Economic Activity Three-Month Moving Average in Black, US Recessions in Gray 2 Eugene- 0 Springfield -2 -4 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Central Oregon Measure of Economic Activity Three-Month Moving Average in Black, US Recessions in Gray 2 Central 0 Oregon -2 -4 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Rogue Valley Measure of Economic Activity Six-Month Moving Average in Black, US Recessions in Grey 2 0 Rogue Valley -2 -4 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Salem Measure of Economic Activity Six-Month Moving Average in Black, US Recessions in Gray 3 1 Salem -1 -3 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 COLLEGE oregon OF ARTS+ SCIENCES economic + ECON forum Economics ©2019 University of Oregon. All rights reserved. Released: June 18, 2019.