National Science Foundation Planning Grant Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies on City Form and Development January 2020 urbanism next center @urbanismnext urbanismnext.com ACKNOWLEDGEMENTs The Urbanism Next Center would like to sincerely thank all of the work group members for dedicating time and effort to this project. Work group members’ involvement and sharing of ideas and expertise made this report possible. Work Group Members: Jenna Adams-Kalloch Joel Espino Oregon Department of Transportation The Greenlining Institute Marco Anderson Tom Fisher, PhD Southern California Association of University of Minnesota Governments Cortney Geary Adam Argo Chattanooga-Hamilton County Regional Oregon Department of Transportation Planning Agency Jesus Barajas, PhD Matt Hoffman University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign HousingTech Ventures David Bois Peter Hurley Arrowstreet Portland Bureau of Transportation Anne Brown, PhD Josh Karlin-Resnick University of Oregon San Francisco Giants Ian Carlton Amy Korte ECONorthwest Arrowstreet Giovanni Circella, PhD Nico Larco, AIA University of California at Davis University of Oregon Ben Clark, PhD Rebecca Lewis, PhD University of Oregon University of Oregon John Cole Jeff Owen Portland Bureau of Planning and Sustainability TriMet Hana Creger Mark Raggett The Greenlining Institute Portland Bureau of Planning and Sustainability Jeb Doran TriMet 2 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Justin Robbins Rick Stein HDR Urban Decision Group Melissa Ruhl Jason Sudy Arup HDR Taryn Sabia Huijun Tan University of South Florida Portland State University Marc Schlossberg, PhD Gerry Tierney University of Oregon Perkins+Will Tyler Shannon Sarah Wright Arrowstreet Portland Bureau of Planning and Sustainability Ryan Snyder Wenwen Zhang, PhD TranspoGroup Virginia Tech This project was funded by a Planning Grant from the National Science Foundation, Award No. 1737645. The Co-Principal Investigators for this were project were Nico Larco, AIA, Professor, Urbanism Next Center Director, Sustainable Cities Institute Co-Director and Rebecca Lewis, PhD, Associate Professor, and Sustainable Cities Institute Research Director at the University of Oregon. The primary authors of this report are listed below by chapter. Primary Authors by Chapter: Ch. 1-2: Amanda Howell and Huijun Tan Ch. 3: Anne Brown, PhD, Marc Schlossberg, PhD, and Josh Karlin-Resnick Ch. 4: Rebecca Lewis, PhD, and Marco Anderson Ch. 5: Nico Larco, AIA, and Gerry Tierney Ch. 6: Ian Carlton, James Kim, and Becky Steckler, AICP Ch. 7: Rebecca Lewis, PhD This report was edited by Amanda Howell and Katie Lewis Chamberlain. Graphic design was done by Michelle Montiel. Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 3 Executive Summary Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are a near future reality and the implications of AVs on city development and urban form, while potentially widespread and dramatic, are not well understood. In addition, there are other fundamentally disruptive technological forces undergoing simultaneous rapid development and deployment, including the introduction of new mobility technologies and the associated paradigm shift to thinking of mobility as a service, as well as the continued growth of e-commerce and the related rise in goods delivery. The purpose of this report is to examine how these forces of change are impacting, or will likely impact transportation, land use, urban design, and real estate, and what the implications may be for equity, health, the economy, the environment, and governance. Our aim was to identify key research areas that will assist in evidence-based decision making for planners, urban designers, and developers to address this critical paradigm shift. We identified key research questions in land use, urban design, transportation, and real estate that will rely on the expertise of these disciplines and lay the foundation for a research agenda examining how AVs and new mobility may impact the built environment. This report describes the first order impacts, or the broad ways that the form and function of cities are already being impacted by the forces of change identified above. These impacts include: Change in the demand for parking Shifting nature of freight Change in vehicle miles traveled Change in the demand for warehousing Change in congestion space Change in ease of travel Reduction of brick-and-mortar stores Increasing competition for the right-of-way Increasing interest in experiential retail. Changes in goods and meal delivery We then explore what effects these impacts may have specifically on transportation, land use, urban design, and real estate, which are referred to here as second order impacts: Transportation: Transportation is a particularly interesting topic in the context of this report because advancements in transportation technology are the primary drivers of the changes discussed, but these changes will also impact the transportation system in turn. For instance, the deployment of AVs may contribute to mode shifts and could increase transit usage by improving first- and last-mile connections, or could decrease transit ridership by directly competing with it. Mode interaction could become increasingly complex as new modes share the right-of-way with AVs and there is an increase in the need to access the curb. 4 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Land Use: The deployment of AVs will likely change the current balance of land uses in urban areas and where certain uses are located throughout the city. This will have impacts on planning regulations, including zoning and land use regulations, in response to the need for less parking, a shift away from auto-oriented uses and services, and potential pressures for urban dispersion. Urban Design: AVs are likely to impact metropolitan footprints, street design, corridor and center development, densification and urban vitality in response to shifting parking needs, changes to travel ease, and multimodal travel opportunities. Additionally, a reduced need for on- and off-street parking and increased need for curbside loading access will change building types and development. Real Estate: AVs may have impacts on land value as well as on project feasibility and competitiveness as ease of transportation increases and transit potentially becomes more atomized. The need for less parking will significantly change the cost of project development, will increase the amount of development possible on any given site, and will alter real estate pro formas and overall project feasibility. These multilevel impacts will have significant implications for society, affecting equity, health, environment, economy, and governance: Equity: The deployment of AVs could have positive impacts on equity by increasing access to mobility for those who have been underserved, such as elderly populations, people with disabilities, and low-income people. However, there is also the possibility that AVs could further exacerbate existing inequities in transportation access, particularly if the deployment of AVs erodes transit to the point where it leaves the most vulnerable without options or if AVs raise the overall costs of travel. Additionally, many new mobility technologies require access to smartphone apps, smartcards and credit card accounts, further disadvantaging those who are unbanked or do not have access to the technology. Health: If AVs achieve the safety benefits they tout, automobile-related injuries and fatalities could be significantly reduced. If fully electric AVs are deployed replacing conventional gasoline-powered vehicles, they could reduce fuel use, which would have positive impacts on the level of unhealthy particulates in the air. A reduced need for parking could free up space for other uses, such as parks and open space, which could also have positive health benefits. However, AVs could further enable social isolation by allowing people to always travel alone. Additionally, the use of autonomous vehicles for goods and meal delivery could further exacerbate social isolation. Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 5 Economy: The deployment of AVs could have ripple effects on municipal finance and local policy. Transportation revenue streams could be immediately and directly affected by AVs as a result of decreasing car ownership, reduction in sales tax revenue from local auto dealers, the advent of hybrid and electric vehicles, and reduced demand for parking. The decrease of municipal revenue due to the pervasive effects by AVs will likely impact policy, planning, investment and design decisions by public agencies, private business, investors and the public at large. Environment: The deployment of fully electric AVs has the potential to reduce emissions of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and local pollutants. AVs may change and reshape urban areas and how people use space. More people may choose to live further from cities if the travel (monetary and time) costs are reduced, which could further exacerbate sprawl. This may affect the availability of natural resources and prime agricultural land as well as biodiversity and other species’ habitats. Governance: AVs will have both direct and indirect implications on a range of government-related services and responsibilities. Because the form and timeline for AV deployment is still unknown, and it is likely possible impacts will shift quickly during deployment, government policies and processes may need to include greater ability to adapt to shifting conditions. For instance, cities may need to use responsive regulations, create structures and processes that facilitate pilot projects, and adopt flexible procurement strategies. In addition, cities will need to expand their role in data management and oversight as well as investigate new ways of working collaboratively with the private sector. To better understand and anticipate the multi-level impacts these technologies, it is important to consider community goals and values, shifts in governance, collaborative networks, and data management and monitoring. 6 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies Urbanism Next | University of Oregon About the Urbanism Next Center The Urbanism Next Center is a research center housed within the Sustainable Cities Institute at the University of Oregon. It is a leading source for information about the potential impacts of emerging technologies—autonomous vehicles, new mobility, e-commerce, and the sharing economy—on city development, form, and design, and the implications for equity, health, the economy, the environment, and governance. About the Sustainable Cities Institute The Sustainable Cities Institute (SCI) is a cross-disciplinary organization at the University of Oregon that promotes education, service, public outreach, and research on the design and development of sustainable cities. We are redefining higher education for the public good and catalyzing community change toward sustainability. Our work addresses sustainability at multiple scales and emerges from the conviction that creating the sustainable city cannot happen within any single discipline. SCI is grounded in cross-disciplinary engagement as the key strategy for improving community sustainability. Our work connects student energy, faculty experience, and community needs to produce innovative, tangible solutions for the creation of a sustainable society. Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 7 8 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Table of Contents 01 | Grant Summary 11 02 | Forces of Change, Assumptions, First Order Impacts, and Implications 17 03 | Impacts on Transportation 73 04 | Impacts on Land Use 97 05 | Impacts on Urban Design 115 06 | Impacts on Real Estate 143 07 | Conclusions 165 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 9 10 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01 | Grant Summary Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 11 01|GRANT SUMMARY METHODS ORGANIZATION OF REPORT Methods One focus of the Urbanism Next sectors to work together and help shape Center at the University of Oregon is to the research agenda. We organized our understand and organize the various grant partners into five working groups impacts of emerging technology—namely, centered around the four key areas of autonomous vehicles, e-commerce, and land use, urban design, transportation, the sharing economy—on the form and and real estate. Two of our groups function of cities. We have accomplished focused on transportation issues, one on this through conducting and gathering active transportation and one on parking specific research, developing and and vehicles, because understanding the disseminating reports, through an annual range of impacts of autonomous vehicles conference, and by building a national and other new mobility technologies network of partners in the public, private, emerged as one of the more dominating nongovernmental, and academic sectors. and important disrupting forces. Through this exploratory investigation, Each group was assigned two co-chairs, we developed the Urbanism Next including one University of Oregon Framework, a type of roadmap that representative and one grant partner organizes the technological impacts on working outside the University of Oregon. cities into four key areas—land use, urban Each group held two conference calls in design, transportation, and real estate— May and June (2018) to start to outline the and relates those to each other and to potential range of impacts that emerging larger societal goals around equity, health, technologies may have on cities related the environment, the economy, and to their topic areas. In July 2018, all of governance. the grant partners came together in Portland, OR for a two-day workshop For the purposes of this National Science hosted by the University of Oregon to Foundation Planning Grant, we explored discuss the impacts, implications, and these topics further to better understand: important research questions. This report 1) what research exists in these areas; summarizes the discussions and findings and 2) where there are research gaps. from all the work group meetings, and We convened 35 partners from the includes an extensive literature review. private, public, academic, and non-profit 12 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 01 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE ORGANIZATION OF REPORT DESCRIPTION OF SOURCES Organization of Report The disruption to urban development of change identified above. We have and the related economic, social, and based our assumptions about first order environmental impacts caused by the impacts on existing data and research, as introduction of the autonomous vehicle well as input from working group experts. (AV) has the potential to be on par with This chapter provides a foundation for the disruptions caused by automobiles the following chapters, which dive into a century ago. Chapter 2 outlines what the cascading impacts that these forces we have identified to be the catalysts of change may have on land use, urban or forces of change, including the design, transportation, and real estate, introduction of new mobility technologies and the resulting implications of those and the associated paradigm shift to impacts. thinking of mobility as a service, the rise of e-commerce and the related rise The following chapters explore what we in goods delivery, and the anticipated consider to be the second order impacts introduction of autonomous vehicles (AVs). as they relate to transportation (Chapter We outline when certain technologies 3), land use (Chapter 4), urban design were first introduced, how they have (Chapter 5), and real estate (Chapter evolved, what adoption rates are thus far, 6). Each of these chapters include and what lessons we can draw on as we discussions of the relationships between prepare for the commercial deployment of first order and second order impacts, fully automated vehicles. relationships between topics, and relationships to the larger issues of equity, Chapter 2 also identifies what we health, the economy, the environment, consider to be first order impacts— and governance. In addition, each section impacts that are being caused by or may outlines areas of needed research. be caused by, at least in part, the forces Description of Sources Sources for this work include: journal peer-reviewed studies on these topics are articles, conference papers and both in short supply and quickly dated. presentations, white papers and reports Given the rapidly changing environment from private companies and non-profit with respect to autonomous vehicles, organizations, government planning ridehailing, and micromobility, on documents and reports, news articles, occasion we reference credible popular and popular blogs. To the extent possible, media and other news sources where we reference peer-reviewed articles and applicable and helpful. academic literature, but autonomous vehicles and more generally, new mobility, are rapidly developing fields. As a result, Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 01 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 13 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 01|GRANT SUMMARY METHODS ORGANIZATION OF REPORT urbanism Next | Framework Equity How will the impacts of emerging technologies impact vulnerable and low income populations? What opportunities are there to improve services LAND USE URBAN DESIGN TRANSPORTATION real estate and reduce inequities? Health Retail/Commercial/ metropolitan footprint walking land value When proximity to How will we regulate the A reduction in demand for Preliminary research finds that people are replacing Office/Industrial workplaces and goods/ interactions between parking will open up land walking, biking, and transit trips with ridehail (employment uses) services is no longer pedestrians and vehicles? for redevelopment. How services. If this trend continues and is exacerbated How will the changing holding people in cities, What happens when will this impact land value by AVs, what will the impact be on our health? nature of travel, what will happen to pedestrians can stop AVs and project feasibility? What are the impacts of E-commerce on health? employment and their already sprawling by simply stepping into the shopping impact retail, footprints? street? commercial, and industrial project feasibility Environment districts? Development will likely Street Design biking get more risky as market How can we take advantage of emerging As cities make plans Will the mixing of modes conditions related to technologies to improve sustainability and Housing for future expansions, be frowned upon because parking demand and environmental outcomes? Can we reduce What are the opportunities changes to their street it is such a limitation to commercial and retail greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions? Can we improve to increase housing network, the inclusion of AV efficiency? Will some viability change. How do stormwater treatment? through infill? Will people various modes/complete areas ban bikes? How we reduce risk? choose to locate in cities? streets, and overall street will bikes work around Or move farther out in the design – what should they curbside deliveries and Economy suburbs? be considering? dropoff? buzz/vitality What will draw people Up to 4 million people drive for a living. What to places in the future? happens to their jobs with the deployment of AVs? Parks & open space centers and corridors TRANSIT How important will Brick-and-mortar stores are closing as shoppers go How do we protect open Will AVs support transit to Transit faces many entertainment be a factor online. How will emerging technologies disrupt the space under the pressure strengthen current nodes challenges including in to where people want to economy? to expand cities? What and corridors or will they economic displacement, congregate? How do we opportunities are there lead to more dispersal demographics, and create “buzz”? to reclaim parking lots for with continuous low- ridehailing. What happens Governance parks? density development? to transit when AVs are quality Emerging technologies will disrupt revenues for deployed? If location in relation to cities, counties, and states. How do we provide densification other areas of the city is a great level of service and support thriving How and where will AVs parking (transportation) no longer a strong factor communities? and new mobility increase What happens if parking in housing/commercial or decrease development utilization needs drop building location, will density? dramatically over a short quality of design become period of time. How quick- more relevant in attracting ly will parking requirements and keeping people in Sense of place shift with that? cities/neighborhoods? When shopping and What should we do? transportation can be Given the possible range of multi-level impacts acquired anywhere, what vehicles of emerging technologies on land use, urban happens to business Preliminary models of design, transportation, and real estate, and districts, shopping districts individual ownership of the implications on equity, the economy, and and neighborhoods? AVs show vehicle miles the environment, how should governments, traveled (VMT) increasing companies, and institutions respond to dramatically. Will AVs parking (urban form) maximize the benefits and minimize the risks? be fleets or individually How will reduced need How do policies, programs, and infrastructure owned? for parking impact urban investments need to adapt and change? form? 14 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 01 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE MULTI-LEVEL Impacts Response Implications for ... 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Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 01 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 15 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs MULTI-LEVEL Impacts MULTI-LEVEL Impacts RReessppoonnssee ImpIlmicpalticioantsio fnosr f..o. r ... URBANISM NEXT framework 16 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 02 | Forces of Change, Assumptions, First Order Impacts, and Implications Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 17 02|forces of change Description of forces assumptions first order impacts Identifying the Forces of Change The proliferation of the smart phone has changed many facets of urban, suburban, and rural life, including how we travel, where we go, and how we make purchases. More specifically, there are three fundamentally disruptive technological forces undergoing simultaneous rapid development and/or deployment: 1 The introduction of new mobility technologies and the associated paradigm shift to thinking of mobility as a service; 2 The continued growth of e-commerce and the related rise in goods delivery; and 3 The anticipated deployment of autonomous vehicles. DESCRIPTION OF FORCES of Change INTRODUCTION TO NEW MOBILITY TECHNOLOGies AND SHIFTING PARADIGMS EVOLUTION OF SHARED MOBILITY MOBILITY AS A SERVICE (MaaS) GROWTH OF E-COMMERCE AND RISE OF GOODS DELIVERy AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES oN THE HORIZON ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES FIRST ORDER IMPACTS Change in Parking Demand Change in goods and meal delivery Change in vehicles miles Shifting nature of freight traveled (VMT) reduction of certain types of Change in congestion brick-and-mortar stores Change in EASE OF TRAVEL Increasing interest in Shift in modes experimental Retail Competition for the Right-Of-Way (ROW) IMPLICATIONS OF FORCES OF CHANGE AND FIRST ORDER IMPACTS equity environment health governance economy 18 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 02 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE Chapter organization first order impacts Implication of the forces Citations Introduction of New Mobility Technologies and Shifting Paradigms The introduction of new mobility To illustrate the rapid development of technologies over the past ten years new mobility, the International Council has contributed to an ongoing on Clean Transportation (ICCT) paradigm shift from thinking created a timeline to display about mobility as something the milestones achieved between we own, such as a mobility 1995 and 2016 (Figure 1) vehicle, to thinking about mobility as something paradigm shift is with the pace of change accelerating in 2009 with we purchase as a a shift from thinking the introduction of on- service. According to about mobility as demand ride services or the Seattle Department transportation network of Transportation, the something we own to companies (TNCs) like term “new mobility” Uber and Lyft. A second is defined as the thinking about it timeline (Figure 2) shows “emerging elements of as a service we anticipated developments our transportation system that are enabled by digital purchase. and milestones based on announcements from technology, shared, driven by real- companies, providers, and other time and often providing curb-to-curb entities. According to projections made transportation,” which entirely changes by a variety of companies, the rate of how people and goods move from point change we have witnessed over the past A to point B (Seattle Department of ten years will continue, although the Transportation, n.d.). The intersections anticipated date of deployment of fully of innovation in vehicle and device automated vehicles remains a moving sharing—spurred by the growth of mobile target. For instance, Ford, Honda, and technology and app development—in Nissan previously announced that they vehicle automation and electrification is plan to have a fully autonomous vehicle facilitating and amplifying innovations commercially available by 2020; by 2030, in mobility (Grosse-Ophoff, Hausler, IHS Automotive predicts 10.5 million Heineke, & Möller, 2017). fully autonomous vehicles will have been deployed globally. Whether or not those predictions will come to pass remains to be seen. Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 02 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 19 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 02|forces of change Description of forces assumptions first order impacts Figure 1. International Council on Clean Transportation’s New Mobility Timeline from 1995 to 2016 (Political Milestones in Blue) Reprinted from “New Mobility: Today’s Technology and Policy Landscape,” by P. Slowik and F. Kamaketé, 2017, Retrieved from https://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/New-mobility-landscape_ICCT-white-paper_27072017_vF.pdf. Copy- right 2017 by International Council on Clean Transportation. 20 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 02 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE first order impacts Implication of the forces Citations Figure 1. International Council on Clean Transportation’s New Mobility Timeline from 1995 to 2016 (Political Milestones in Blue) Reprinted from “New Mobility: Today’s Technology and Policy Landscape,” by P. Slowik and F. Kamaketé, 2017, Retrieved from https://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/New-mobility-landscape_ICCT-white-paper_27072017_vF.pdf. Copy- right 2017 by International Council on Clean Transportation. Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 02 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 21 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 02|forces of change Description of forces assumptions first order impacts Figure 2. International Council on Clean Transportation’s New Mobility Timeline from 2016 to 2030 Reprinted from “New Mobility: Today’s Technology and Policy Landscape,” by P. Slowik and F. Kamaketé, 2017, Retrieved from https://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/New-mobility-landscape_ICCT-white-paper_27072017_vF.pdf. Copy- right 2017 by International Council on Clean Transportation. 22 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 02 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE first order impacts Implication of the forces Citations Figure 2. International Council on Clean Transportation’s New Mobility Timeline from 2016 to 2030 Reprinted from “New Mobility: Today’s Technology and Policy Landscape,” by P. Slowik and F. Kamaketé, 2017, Retrieved from https://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/New-mobility-landscape_ICCT-white-paper_27072017_vF.pdf. Copy- right 2017 by International Council on Clean Transportation. Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 02 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 23 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 02|forces of change Description of forces assumptions first order impacts Evolution of Shared Mobility Shared mobility, which refers to it now encompasses not only transit, but transportation services and resources also carsharing, bikesharing, microtransit, that are shared amongst various users ridesharing, and ridesourcing (Federal (Shared-Use Mobility Center, 2019), is Transit Administration, 2016) as well as not a new concept. For instance, public the newest entrant to the field, shared transit is a vital and widespread form electric scooters. McKinsey reported that of shared mobility. However, emerging the shared mobility market in three core technologies that enable the renting markets—China, Europe, and the U.S.— or borrowing of a broader range of was nearly $54 billion in 2016, and in an goods and services instead of owning aggressive growth scenario, the market them are driving an evolution of shared could experience 28 percent annual mobility. According to the Federal Transit growth from 2015 to 2030 (Grosse-Ophoff Administration’s scope on shared mobility, et al., 2017). Figure 3. Bike Share Ridership in the U.S. Since 2010 (NACTO) Source. Reprint from “Shared Micromobility in the U.S.:2018”, by NACTO.org, 2019, Retrieved from https://nacto.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/ NACTO_Shared-Micromobility-in-2018_Web.pdf / Copyright 2019 by National Association of City Transportation Officials. 24 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 02 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE first order impacts Implication of the forces Citations Bikesharing (Dockless and Docked) Bikesharing has been in existence for with 35 million trips in 2017, 25% more over 24 years in North America, and even than in 2016, and the number of bikes longer in Europe. The earliest bikeshare at the end of 2017 (100,000) more than programs, which enabled users to access doubled compared to 2016 (NACTO, a shared bicycle as needed, were part 2018). Bikeshare further grew in 2018, of the “first generation of bikeshare” with a total of 52 million trips on docked, and were free to use. The first bikeshare dockless, pedal, and e-bikes combined program to launch in the U.S. was in (NACTO, 2019). Interestingly, dockless Portland, OR in 1994, and two years later, systems are somewhat of a return to the twin cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul first generation bikeshare programs launched the first Coin-Deposit system, since bikes can be deployed with more the first of the “second generation” flexibility, providing users more leeway bikeshare programs (S. A. Shaheen, in where they pick up and drop off a Guzman, & Zhang, 2010). Second shared bike. Figure 4 shows the locations generation bikeshare programs were of station-based bikeshare systems with categorized, in part, by the incorporation 1,000 or more bikes in the U.S. as of 2018 of docking stations, setting them apart and Figure 3 shows bikeshare ridership in from the first generation bikeshare the U.S. from 2010-2019. The majority of programs where bikes could be picked up the increase in bikeshare between 2010- and left anywhere. 2017 was from new dockless systems, Bikeshare has grown rapidly in the which comprised 44% of all bikeshare U.S. since 2010. From 2010 to 2016, bikes in the U.S in 2017. Dockless bikes over 88 million trips were made on a continued to be a popular option through bikeshare bike in the U.S., according to 2018, but saw a slow in growth due to NACTO, or the National Association of the introduction of dockless e-scooters City Transportation Officials (NACTO, in 2018, which likely replaced some 2017a). Bikeshare continued growing dockless bike trips (NACTO, 2019). Electric bikes or e-bikes have also grown significantly in popularity. According to Figure 4. Locations of Large Station-Based a 2018 NACTO report on micromobility, Bikeshare Systems in the U.S. in 2018 (NACTO) “cities that added e-bikes to their station fleets report that, on average, e-bikes are used twice as frequently as pedal bikes” (NACTO, 2019). Global e-bike sales are expected to grow from over $15.7 billion in revenue in 2016 to $24.4 billion by 2025 (Navigant Research, 2016). Since e-bikes can provide a boost to riders by making it easier to travel further, e-bikes could increase the amount of cycling (both number of trips and total distance) Source. Reprint from “Shared Micromobility in the U.S.:2018”, by NACTO.org, 2019, Retrieved from https://nacto.org/wp-content/ and affect both commuter and leisure uploads/2019/04/NACTO_Shared-Micromobility-in-2018_Web.pdf / Copyright 2019 by National Association of City Transportation Officials. travel time (Fyhri & Fearnley, 2015). Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 02 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 25 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 02|forces of change Description of forces assumptions first order impacts Source: car2go Carsharing Similar to bikesharing, it has been over decade, largely due to advancements 20 years since carsharing was first in smartphone technology, and has introduced as an innovative transportation experienced an evolution in the types mode in North America. Carsharing of operational models available. Newer is based on the idea that users can carsharing models include one-way or enjoy the benefits of access to a point-to-point carsharing, peer-to-peer private car without the fixed costs and carsharing where individuals access a responsibilities of owning a car. Most privately owned vehicle fleet through carsharing programs are “a membership- a third party, and fractional ownership based, self-service, short-term car- where individuals co-lease a vehicle access system with a network of vehicles (Shaheen, 2018). for which members pay by time and/or distance” (Lane et al., 2015). The early Free-floating carshare, which enables days of North American carsharing in users to pick up a vehicle and end the the late 1990s grew out of the “station trip anywhere on permitted streets or car” idea where vehicles were made company-marked parking locations, has available at passenger rail stations, and also grown in the past few years. Car2go by 1999 there were nine carsharing was one of first players to try out free- organizations in existence—five in Canada floating carsharing, and by 2018, it had and four in the U.S. (Shaheen, Sperling, grown to over 2 million members across & Wagner, 1999). For more than 15 years, North America, Europe, and Asia with carsharing was run almost exclusively as 14,000 vehicles in 30 locations worldwide roundtrip carsharing, requiring members (Navy, 2018). Traditional automakers such to pick up and return a vehicle from the as BMW entered the U.S. and European same location. However, the carsharing markets with carsharing models such as industry has expanded over the past DriveNow and ReachNow. 26 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 02 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE first order impacts Implication of the forces Citations Ridehailing or Transportation Network Companies (TNCs) Since 2010, a growing number of private projected to surpass local bus ridership companies have entered the for-hire by the end of 2018 (Schaller, 2018). Their transportation services market offering overall growth is the result of a number new travel options that use app-based of factors, including, of course, the technology to provide on-demand comfort and convenience of direct point- mobility, known collectively as ridehailing to-point service. While TNC ridership or transportation network companies has increased dramatically over the (TNCs). Previously, for-hire vehicles were past few years, taxi ridership has been primarily taxis and users would call a steadily decreasing (Figure 5). TNC wait dispatcher to request a ride. TNCs enable times tend to be substantially shorter passengers to request rides directly than for conventional taxis (Wang, 2015), from drivers who generally use their contributing to their increasing popularity own personal, non-commercial vehicles compared to taxis. Importantly, TNC to transport passengers. TNC services drivers have been found to be significantly generally follow a point-to-point route less discriminatory than taxi drivers and can be dynamically priced based (Brown, 2018). A study of ridehailing in on supply and demand of vehicles, Los Angeles County also revealed that customers, and roadway congestion. TNCs served neighborhoods home to 99.8% of the population (Brown, 2018), TNCs, such as Uber and Lyft, have had providing increased mobility options a dramatic impact on mobility in cities. across all geographies. For example, in the U.S., TNCs were Figure 5. TNC and Taxi Ridership in the U.S., 1990-2017. Reprinted from “The New Automobility: Lyft, Uber and the Future of American Cities,” by B. Schaller, 2018, Retrieved from http://www.schallerconsult.com/rideservices/automo- bility.htm. Copyright 2018 by Schaller Consult Inc. Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 02 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 27 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 02|forces of change Description of forces assumptions first order impacts Microtransit Microtransit is a relatively new entrant passengers unlike TNCs wherein drivers in shared mobility and mobility on use their personal vehicles. Microtransit demand. It is a form of technology- shuttle services have been offered by enabled “alternative transit” and can have providers such as Bridj, Chariot, and either flexible or fixed routes and flexible Via, although Bridj and Chariot have scheduling. Microtransit vehicles are both ceased their U.S. operations. Via typically smaller than traditional transit continues to operate in the U.S. and has vehicles. Other common features include partnered with cities and agencies to help limited routes or service areas, more fill gaps in the transportation system. Los amenities (i.e., Wi-Fi, and USB outlets), Angeles Metro, for instance, announced in and the integration of big data into their January 2019 that they would partner with operating systems (Fehr & Peers, 2015). Via on a year-long pilot using the private Microtransit service providers typically mictrotransit service with first- and last- own and manage their own fleet of mile connections to major transit stops vehicles and employ drivers to transport (Chiland, 2019). Source: ridewithvia.com/news 28 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 02 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE first order impacts Implication of the forces Citations Electric Scooters Shared electric scooters, or e-scooters, deployed the micromobility devices in San are among the most recent shared Francisco by April. By the end of 2018, use mobility innovations and were first over 85,000 e-scooters were available introduced in late 2017 in Santa Monica, in over 100 U.S. cities (NACTO, 2019). CA by the operator Bird (Walker, 2018). The market has continued to grow since Like privately owned automobiles and they were first introduced, and the major some bikeshare systems, e-scooters are providers now include Bird, Lime, Spin, another form of dockless mobility. The Skip, Bolt, and Jump, which was acquired momentum for e-scooters ramped up by Uber in 2018. quickly in early 2018, and providers Bird, Lime (formerly LimeBike), and Spin had all Figure 6. E-Scooter Share System Sizes and Locations as of 2018 (NACTO) Reprint from “Shared Micromobility in the U.S.: 2018”, by NACTO.org, 2019, Retrieved from https://nacto.org/shared-micromobili- ty-2018/. Copyright 2019 by National Association of City Transportation Officials. Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 02 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 29 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 02|forces of change Description of forces assumptions first order impacts Mobility as a Service (Concept and Platform) Mobility as a service (MaaS), or the a bikeshare membership in one payment notion that we purchase transportation rather than having to pay for each service as rides rather than as commodities such separately. Another example of an as cars, is certainly not a new concept integrated service platform is the Whim unto itself—mass transit is a longstanding App, which was created by MaaS Global, and well-established example of MaaS. a company based in Helsinki, Finland. However, the emergence of technology- MaaS Global worked with agencies in enabled new mobility options such as Helsinki to develop an integrated platform ridehailing, microtransit, and e-scooters that enables residents to purchase has helped bring about a paradigm shift mobility service subscriptions that in how we think of mobility. Instead of correspond to their mobility needs. Users one in which vehicles are purchased and who need fewer mobility options (e.g., used for a majority of trips, now rides are modes) can pay a lower fee that provides purchased with the mode of travel chosen unlimited transit and bikeshare rides, but on a trip-by-trip basis. The term MaaS access to carshare and taxis requires an can also be used to refer to a service additional fee. People who need more platform where a trip can be routed, options can pay a higher monthly fee that reserved, and paid for using one app that provides unlimited access to transit and integrates information from a variety of bikeshare, as well as a limited number of services providers. carshare and taxi rides. The Whim App has also been adopted in West Midlands, MaaS can take different forms, including U.K. the opportunity in many cities to choose from among different public and private Paying a flat monthly fee for a suite of mobility providers. Hypothetically, the mobility services is the most advanced range of mobility options could be MaaS platform to date. Another provided by a single entity, public or application of MaaS is a platform that private, offering “transportation services enables users to get information about within a given regional environment that all the ways that a particular trip could provide holistic, preferred and optimal be made, how long each option would travel solutions, to enable end-to-end take, and what the cost would be. In journeys paid for by the user as a single that application, a user could potentially charge” (CUBIC, 2018). There are not yet opt to pick and choose multiple modes many instances where public agencies to reach their final destination instead have integrated multiple services into of just selecting one mode for the entire a single charge, but there are a few trip. More cities have started to pilot examples. TriMet in Portland, OR versions of this type of MaaS platform. launched the Transportation Wallet in Denver, CO launched the Go Denver 2018, which enables users to access an platform in 2017, where users are able annual transit pass, streetcar pass, and to create a profile that matches their 30 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 02 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE first order impacts Implication of the forces Citations Figure 7. Mobility as a Service (MaaS) Mobility as a Service (MaaS) The mobility paradigm shift is a shift from thinking of mobility as something one invdividually owns (e.g. owning a vehicle or a bike) to approach mobility as a suite of pay-as-you-use transportation services. arrive: 10:31a (37 min) total: $2.75 The ideal MaaS plataform enables 2min $0 users to get information about all the ways that a particular trip could be made, how long each MaaS 10min $0.25 option would take, what the cost would be, and pay through the app. 25min $2.50 Source: Marsie Surguine for Urbanism Next transportation needs and preferences instance, the Uber app allows users to (International Transportation Service, request a ride in a vehicle, or reserve a 2017). For example, users can select bicycle or an e-scooter by partnering with all their preferred modes and filter out bikeshare operator Jump and e-scooter modes they would prefer not to take, and operator Lime (Siddiqui, 2018a). In this then plan their trips accordingly. LA Metro instance, multiple modes may be utilized announced in August 2018 that they were to complete a single trip, but all of the working on developing a MaaS platform modes are being operated and managed for the Transit Access Pass (TAP) Smart by a single private entity. Card program to make it a one-stop shop for a variety of mobility services, including It is estimated that the MaaS market transit, bikeshare, and ridehailing, with the is expected to grow nearly tenfold option to pay using credit cards or cash from $38.76 billion in 2017 to $358.35 (Musulin, 2018). billion by 2025 (Research and Market, 2018). The acceleration of MaaS and Some private mobility companies have the development of automated services also started to vertically integrate more may help with consumer decision- services for their users. Unlike some making, make travel more seamless of the applications discussed above, and straightforward, and facilitate more such as the Portland Transportation efficient movement by combining various Wallet or the Go Denver platform which modes to form a holistic transport service include multiple service providers, some ecosystem (KPMG, 2017). applications are company specific. For Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 02 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 31 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 02|forces of change Description of forces assumptions first order impacts Growth of E-Commerce and Rise of Goods Delivery Another significant force of change supply chains, logistics, the customer is the continued growth of the experience, and last mile delivery (Reddy, e-commerce market, and by extension, 2018). the rise in goods delivery. Like the growth of new mobility technologies, With the growth of e-commerce, the the growth of e-commerce in recent rate of package delivery has increased years is also related to the evolution of substantially, and e-commerce businesses mobile technology. U.S. e-commerce have identified last-mile services as a sales reportedly grew by 16% in 2017 key factor in maintaining a competitive (Ecommerce Foundation, 2017) and advantage. Many retailers have started e-commerce represented 13% of total offering faster delivery service, such as retail sales and approximately 49% of same-day and even hour-based delivery all retail sales growth in 2017 (Zaroban, in order to compete for e-commerce 2018). Figure 8 shows the growth of market share (Bliss, 2018a). According e-commerce between 2000 and 2015. to a report published by McKinsey in More broadly, technological developments 2016, 20-25% of consumers are willing such as Big Data, Internet of Things to pay significant premiums or same-day (IoT), Virtual Reality (VR), Augmented delivery, and by 2020, it is anticipated that Reality (AR), Artificial Intelligence (AI), same-day and instant delivery will reach and automation are also shaping various a combined share of 15 percent of the aspects of e-commerce, changing market (Joerss et al., 2016). Figure 8. E-commerce Sales and Their Share in Total Retail Sales from 2000-2015 (Deloitte) Reprint from “Ring in the new: Holiday season e-commerce sales poised for strong growth”, by Bachman and Barua, 2016, Re- trieved from https://www2.deloitte.com/insights/us/en/economy/behind-the-numbers/holiday-ecommerce-sales-growth-forecast. html 32 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 02 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE first order impacts Implication of the forces Citations Source: Postmates Courier Network Services In order to meet increasing customer and Deliveroo, have proliferated. These demand for delivery and to expand their services have created an inexpensive market, businesses are using a variety of option for last mile delivery and turned new delivery strategies. Courier network delivery from a small segment of the food services (CNS), or flexible goods delivery, industry (i.e., pizza) to a growing new enable for-hire delivery by connecting source of sales for different types of food couriers with businesses via mobile establishments. apps or online platforms (Shaheen, Chan, Bansal, & Cohen, 2015b). Courier Amazon has also expanded into network services operate similarly to courier service delivery, moving beyond TNCs in that couriers are considered traditional carriers like FedEx and UPS in independent contractors and they order to keep up with growing delivery use their own vehicles or devices to demand. Amazon Flex leverages local, deliver goods and/or food. In the past nonprofessional couriers for package several years, on-demand food delivery delivery. Amazon Flex drivers typically use services, such as Grubhub/Seamless, their own vehicles, similar to other courier Postmates, Doordash, Caviar, UberEats, network services. Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 02 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 33 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 02|forces of change Description of forces assumptions first order impacts Autonomous Vehicles on the Horizon The force of changes described above are already underway, including the limited deployment of autonomous vehicles. While many factors contribute to the adoption, deployment, and acceptance of autonomous vehicles, it is likely that this next decade will see autonomous ridehailing-type passenger services rolled out, such as those that exist in Phoenix, Arizona. Deployment will not be ubiquitous in all cities, however, as technological challenges will need to be overcome regionally. While the exact speed and scale of AV deployment is uncertain, it is clear their development and use will be disruptive to the existing transportation, real estate, design, and financial structures of cities. Passenger Mobility integrated MaaS strategy, including AVs (Bomey, 2016). Many also believe that Transportation network companies like ridehailing companies like Uber and Lyft Uber and Lyft provide a good model of are currently fighting for market share how autonomous vehicles are likely to and survival as driverless vehicles may be used given their on-demand nature, be key to their profitability (Lekach, point-to-point service, ease in pooling 2019; Siddiqui & Bensinger, 2019). Other customers if desired, and ability to companies, such as Tesla, are betting dynamically price trips. Accordingly, that AVs will simply represent the next understanding the use patterns and generation of the current model of private municipal impacts of TNCs can help vehicle ownership. The future is likely to provide initial insights about anticipated be a mix of these options, varying by city changes. size, location within a metropolitan area, topography, or other factors, but what There is some evidence that AV operators is likely different than what many cities will adopt a MaaS approach rather than a experience currently is that the increase in private vehicle ownership model, although ridehailing with the introduction of AVs is the exact mix of personally-owned versus likely to be significant. fleet-based trip-making is hard to predict at this time. For example, Waymo, the AV technology could allow for the self-driving unit under Alphabet, Google’s emergence of shared autonomous parent company, ordered over 60,000 vehicles (SAVs), which are likely be AVs to be used in its own ridehailing cheaper to take a ride in than human- application in May of 2018 (Boudette, operated ridehailing and taxi services 2018). Ford launched a Smart Mobility since the labor cost of the driver would Unit in 2016, expanding its offerings be eliminated (Litman, 2018)driverless beyond personally-owned vehicles and or robotic. Ford plans to release fully is also heavily investing in a vertically automated vehicles designed for ‘high- 34 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 02 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE first order impacts Implication of the forces Citations Source: Waymo volume’ commercial uses such as ride- Automation may also have a substantial hailing services by 2021, and General impact on the development of microtransit Motors plans to provide ridehailing initiatives. Many cities are already testing vehicles to its partner Lyft in the form AV shuttles, partnering with operators of fully autonomous Chevy Bolts (Bliss, like EasyMile, Transdev, Navya, and 2017). Audi’s “Own the experience, not May Mobility. Most of these pilots have the car” or Volvo’s “You used to buy occurred on closed courses and private music … the car you can subscribe to” campuses, but some cities are beginning on-demand programs can be seen as to pilot AV shuttles on public streets. OEM’s beta-testing what a shared AV Eventually, autonomous microtransit future could look like. may be able to operate independently of predefined routes just like pooled services The concept of SAVs combines elements in Uber or Lyft, or the algorithms created of conventional car-sharing and taxi/ by microtransit service providers like Via, TNC services, which are known as calculating nearby pickup and drop-off autonomous taxis, “aTaxis,” or “robo- points for passengers (Lang et al., 2017). taxis” (Krueger, Rashidi & Rose, 2016). In addition, autonomous microtransit SAVs may help to facilitate accessibility could help redevelop specialized transit for different sociodemographic groups to potentially reduce travel costs and and for those cannot drive (such as those possibly optimize the efficiency of with disabilities) in either suburban or transport services, making the system urban areas (Litman, 2018) driverless or more convenient, effective, and efficient. robotic. Therefore, autonomous microtransit could increase the demand for and potential to deliver more on-demand products and services (MaRS, 2016). Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 02 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 35 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 02|forces of change Description of forces assumptions first order impacts Goods Delivery Both long-haul freight and last-mile as well as food. Amazon has also been delivery may prove to be natural developing its own self-driving delivery applications for driverless vehicles. robot, Scout, which it has been testing Autonomous trucking is already in in neighborhoods around Seattle, WA development and Otto, an autonomous (Vincent, 2019). trucking company now owned by Uber, made the first automated truck delivery Goods delivery also will likely not be using public roads in the United States in limited to ground transportation in 2016 (Isaac, 2017). Companies, such as the future. The U.S. Department of Daimler, Volvo, and others, are developing Transportation announced in 2018 that it autonomous trucks and long-haul freight had chosen a combination of 10 states, will likely be among the first widely local, and tribal governments and a deployed use cases of autonomous handful of companies, including Alphabet, technology. FedEx, Intel and Uber to work together on commercial drone testing (Bloomberg, Last-mile delivery is also a natural 2018). Chinese e-commerce business application of autonomous technology, JD.com has been starting same-day and the self-driving startup Nuro has delivery of online orders in 100 rural already partnered with the grocery chain villages in China using 40 teleoperated Kroger to pilot small, self-driving vehicles drones, which are 70% cheaper and for grocery deliveries in Scottsdale, AZ faster than the manned vehicle alternative (Dickey, 2018). The City of Scottsdale has (Smart, 2018). Additionally, in April 2019, allowed Nuro to utilize public roads for the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration their delivery vehicles. Other companies (F.A.A.) issued its first approval to Wing, have also been working to develop Alphabet’s drone-delivery unit, to pilot small, self-driving robots for last-mile package delivery in parts of Virginia. As delivery that travel on sidewalks. Starship autonomous vehicle technology continues Technologies is one such company that to advance, it is estimated that they will has been piloting its robots in places like be used in up to 80% of parcel delivery, Washington, D.C., Redwood City, CA, and saving nearly 40% in delivery costs Milton Keynes, U.K. to deliver packages (Joerss et al., 2016). 36 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 02 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE first order impacts Implication of the forces Citations Demographic Shifts There are many simultaneous changes In addition to this, young people, happening in society that will have especially Millennials, are less likely than significant impacts on the form and older generations to become licensed function of cities. In tandem with the drivers (Cortright, 2016a), and they tend technological advancements described to live in more walkable areas or areas above, we are also seeing demographic equipped with more active transportation shifts in household preferences for options. Also, emerging technologies housing and transportation. Young people are providing new ways of experiencing aged 20 to 30 are less likely to move from information in urban space. Young central cities to suburbs than a decade people tend to adopt technologies (i.e., ago (Cortright, 2016b; Dutzik, Inglis, & smartphones, ridehailing) faster than Baxandall, 2014). As we move more and other age cohorts: research shows that more towards a “knowledge economy” it people age between 25 and 34 have the is worth noting what Richard Florida wrote highest usage of TNCs compared to other in 2017: age groups (Schaller, 2018). According to Pew Research Center, 92% of Millennials Today, clustering, not dispersal, own smartphones, compared with 85% powers innovation and economic of Gen Xers, 67% of Baby Boomers, growth. Many people still like living and 30% of the Silent Generation (Jiang, in suburbs, of course, but suburban 2018). As the younger generations age growth has fallen out of sync with and the newest generation, Generation the demands of the urbanized Z, grows into adulthood, we will likely see knowledge economy …. The suburbs greater adoption rates as a share of the aren’t going away, but they are total population because the technology no longer the apotheosis of the needed to hail new mobility services will American Dream and the engine of be more ubiquitous. economic growth (Florida, 2017). Young people aged 20 to 30 are less likely to move from central cities to suburbs than a decade ago Image Source: Trevin Rudy and Arthur Osipyan for Unsplash. Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 02 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 37 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 02|forces of change Description of forces assumptions first order impacts Assumptions About Autonomous Vehicles Two key assumptions underpin much of fully autonomous vehicles become readily this report: 1) AVs are much more likely available and people increasingly favor to be deployed as MaaS fleets than as on-demand automated ridehailing-type privately-owned vehicles; and 2) the services over private ownership majority of these vehicles will (Pofuk, 2017). According to quickly become electric. previous studies’ estimations, Two key private vehicle ownership At this point in time, assumptions rates for AVs could be fleet ownership of AVs appears more likely underpin the report: dramatically reduced if fleets of AVs are owned than widespread AVs are much more and operated by TNCs personal ownership, at likely to be deployed as (Fagnant & Kockelman, least in the near-term. 2014; Pofuk, 2017). While a ride in an AV fleets and the majority In a simulated model, may be cheaper than a will quickly become researchers found that ride in a TNC today, AVs a shared fleet of AVs will likely be expensive to electric. could incur 11% more travel purchase due to the high cost compared to non-shared of production, as well as the need vehicles because they would be to maintain some control over updates more consistently in service, but they needed by the vehicle’s operating system. also suggest that the fleet could save While private vehicle ownership rates may participating users ten times the number stay close to the same for the foreseeable of private vehicles they would otherwise future, it is likely that rates will fall once need (Fagnant & Kockelman, 2014). Also, Source: Waymo 38 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 02 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE first order impacts Implication of the forces Citations Source: Electric Vehicles Only by Mary and Angus Hogg https://ccsearch.creativecommons.org/photos/cef90bee-0423-40ce-803a-61b3afc1129c low-cost SAVs in urban areas might in fueling costs compared to a gasoline- encourage people, especially younger powered vehicle (averaging 27 miles per urbanites, to reduce personal vehicle gallon and $3.5 per gallon for fuel cost; ownership. Therefore, carmakers may Anair & Mahmassani, 2012). Whether AVs be more committed to ridehailing and will be electric or gas will likely depend on carsharing services today, prioritizing their continued technological development fleets over personal vehicle ownership and their overall market penetration. (The Economist, 2018). Automakers such as Volkswagen (VW) are Our second assumption is that AVs developing battery electric EVs capable will likely be electric, though whether of super-fast charging by plugging into they will be all-electric is still uncertain. machines that provide 250-450 kw/h Steffen Hoffmann, Bosch’s U.K. president as opposed to the current 150 kw/h projected that by 2025, 15% of vehicles machines. Additionally, researchers are worldwide will an electric component (an pursuing commercially viable inductive all-electric vehicle, a plug-in hybrid, or charging, which would allow a vehicle to full hybrid; J. Silver, 2017). Companies park over a pad and receive the charge will likely adopt electric cars faster than through the air. This second innovation individual owners and using electricity is seen as important to the future of AVs instead of gasoline could have significant allowing the vehicles to pull into a parking fuel cost savings. For instance, an electric area and charge themselves. vehicle can save $750 -$1,200 per year Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 02 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 39 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 02|forces of change Description of forces assumptions first order impacts First Order Impacts The following discussion describes the broad ways that the form and function of cities are being impacted by the forces of change identified above. This section provides a foundation for the following chapters, which dive into the cascading impacts that the forces of change may have more specifically on land use, urban design, transportation, and real estate, and the resulting implications of those impacts for equity, health, the environment, the economy, and governance. Change in Parking Demand In the United States, it is estimated that of the two most common reasons TNC the average car is parked 95% of the users give for taking a TNC is because time (Shoup, 2011), and while estimates destination-area parking is difficult of the total number of parking spots (Clewlow & Mishra, 2017). differ, they generally agree that we have far more parking than we need. In 2018, Airports, in particular, have seen parking one researcher used a combination of demand change since the introduction data sources, including satellite data, of TNCs. According to a 2018 study to calculate exactly how many parking that analyzed data from four regional spaces exist in five U.S. cities—New U.S. airports, including Portland, San York, NY; Philadelphia, PA; Des Moines, Francisco, Denver, and Kansas City, IA; Seattle, WA; and Jackson, WY—and airport parking revenue per passenger found that only in New York City were peaked approximately 12-24 months there more homes than parking spaces after the introduction of TNCs and has (Peters, 2018). Seattle, however, averages since steadily declined (Henao, Sperling, more than five spaces per household Garikapati, Hou, & Young, 2018). The and Jackson averages more than 27 data suggest that, taken together, the spaces per household. Increasingly airports show an annualized declining rate cities are recognizing that parking has of 3-7%(Figure 9). At that rate, parking been overbuilt and underpriced, and demand at these airports could be cut the emergence of TNCs and other new in half in approximately 14 years. In mobility services are already impacting order to manage the increased demand parking demand in some places, such for curbside pick-up and drop-off many as dense downtown areas and areas airports have created designated TNC with concentrated nightlife (Morris, passenger loading zones and have 2018; Steele, 2018; Zipkin, 2017). One instituted trip fees. 40 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 02 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE first order impacts Implication of the forces Citations The introduction of AVs could further it is also expected that AVs will be able reduce the demand for parking and will to park more efficiently than conventional likely impact a greater variety of place vehicles. A 2018 study estimated that AV types beyond heavily urbanized areas and car-parks, which could have multiple rows airports. The use of SAVs in the future of stacked vehicles, could decrease the could further diminish parking demand need for parking space by an average of since it is anticipated that SAVs will spend 62% and potentially up to a maximum of more time transporting passengers and 87% of the space that’s designated for much less time parked than conventional parking today. (Nourinejad, Bahrami, & vehicles. Not only will AVs/SAVs be able Roorda, 2018). to spend more time on the road overall, Figure 9. Airport parking revenue per passenger at four major ariports (SFO, DIA, MDI, PDX). Henao, A., Sperling, J., Garikapati, V., Hou, Y., & Young, S. (2018). Airport Analyses Informing New Mobility Shifts: Opportunities to Adapt Energy-Efficient Mobility Services and Infrastructure (No. NREL/CP-5400-71036). Retrieved from National Renewable Energy Laboratory website: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy18osti/71036.pdf Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 02 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 41 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 02|forces of change Description of forces assumptions first order impacts Change in Vehicle Miles Traveled Recent studies have found that vehicle Based on existing studies, AVs could miles/kilometers traveled (VMT) has in- contribute to an increase in travel demand creased over the past several years and due to a variety of factors including, some of that growth has been attributed but not limited to: increased mobility to the rise of TNCs. In a 2017 UC Davis options for certain populations (people study on ridehailing, researchers Clewlow with disabilities, elderly, etc.); induced and Mishra asked respondents to answer demand (people choosing to take trips the question, “If Uber and Lyft were they otherwise may not have taken); unavailable, which transporta- and people choosing to travel tion alternatives would you to destinations that are use for the trips that you At 5% market further away because the make using Uber and penetration AVs mode of travel is more Lyft?” Twenty-two per- comfortable. These cent of respondents could increase VMT factors could potentially said they would have from 5-20% depending yield additional VMT just made fewer trips because more trips if they hadn’t used a on facility class, and may be generated TNC (Clewlow & Mish- could reach as high and more locations/ ra, 2017). Since Uber destinations may be and Lyft were an option, as 35% with 95% accessible (Childress et however, these respondents penetration. al., 2015; Correia et al., opted to take a vehicle trip 2016). Gucwa (2014) reported that they would otherwise would that VMT could increase between not have made. This is not necessarily a 4-8% by applying different scenarios of bad thing since it may be that TNCs are road capacity and value of time changes filling transportation gaps and addressing through the introduction of AVs. Bierstedt issues of latent demand by expanding and colleagues (2014) estimated that at mobility for underserved populations, as 5% market penetration AVs could increase research findings suggest (Brown, 2018). VMT from 5-20% depending on facility class, and could reach as high as 35% with 95% penetration. 42 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 02 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE first order impacts Implication of the forces Citations Even if SAVs function as a form of public & Kockelman, 2014). In another simulation transportation and replace conventional, study of SAVs in a mid-sized U.S. city, the private vehicles, some studies have also author found that overall VMT (for SAVs) suggested that SAVs may still increase would increase due to the need to detour VMT and generate more congestion in and reposition vehicles for drop-off and urban areas. One study found that SAVs pick-up (Schaller, 2017b). could increase travel distance by 10% compared to non-SAVs and also suggest that total VMT would increase in part because of the number of out-of-service trips (e.g., zero-occupancy trips; Fagnant With the deployment of AVs, people could choose to travel to destinations that are further away because the mode of travel is more comfortable. Source: Maximilian Watcher for Unsplash. Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 02 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 43 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 02|forces of change Description of forces assumptions first order impacts Change in Congestion¹ Several studies examining the impacts of induced and latent demand, and mode of TNCs on congestion have concluded replacement (e.g., a person choosing that TNCs are contributing to increased to take an AV instead of walking or congestion (Gehrke, Reardon, & biking). However, the potential exists for Felix, 2018; San Francisco County AVs to help decrease congestion since Transportation Authority, 2017; Schaller, AVs have the ability to travel in closer 2017a). Researchers at the Metropolitan proximity than human-driven vehicles Area Planning Council in Boston found can today, resulting in shorter headways that 15% of ride-hailing trips are adding and narrower travel lanes. Such an cars to regional roadways during morning improvement of free-flow capacity and and afternoon rush hours (Gehrke et flow stability could decrease congestion, al., 2018). In San Francisco, researchers though such efficiency gains will depend concluded that on a typical weekday upon the penetration rates of connected TNCs are averaging 570,000 VMT, which and autonomous vehicles (Talebpour & they consider to be a conservative Mahmassani, 2016). However, in planning estimate. In comparison, they estimate for a fully autonomous environment we that taxis in San Francisco generate will be presented with the option of seeing 66,000 VMT on a typical weekday these potential efficiency gains directed (San Francisco County Transportation towards either: 1) using the same amount Authority, 2017). There are two important of roadway as today to allow for greater contributing factors: in-service VMT, or vehicle throughput, or 2) keeping current the distance traveled while transporting vehicle throughput and directing the a passenger, and out-of-service VMT, or “efficiency gains” towards other modes the distance traveled during circulation such as transit, walking, and biking periods. With the current model of TNCs, through the reallocation of space. those circulation periods represent single- occupancy trips but with fully automated If AVs are able to travel more efficiently vehicles, those same trips are likely to be than conventional vehicles, delays and zero-occupancy, or “zombie” trips, with travel costs could be reduced. This no people in the vehicle. could make travel more affordable and/ or attractive to those whose trips were Of course, levels of traffic congestion previously suppressed, thus generating vary from place to place and city to city, additional traffic. A simulation study in and relate to a variety of factors including Boston found that introducing AVs and “population density, road capacity, SAVs into the city could improve travel choice of alternative modes of travel, time for the city overall, but could still and traffic management technologies increase congestion, as well as travel time use” (Metz, 2018). On the one hand, in the downtown area (World Economic AVs could contribute to increased Forum, 2018). congestion resulting from a combination 1 This section pulls from the Urbanism Next report “AVs in the Pacific Northwest: Reducing Greenhouse Gases in a Time of Automation” (August 2018). 44 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 02 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE first order impacts Implication of the forces Citations Change in Ease of Travel While AVs are predicted to induce trips could shift as commute time is liberated and increase congestion within central from needing to focus on driving. cities (Fagnant & Kockelman, 2014; 2018), studies have predicted that AVs might The National Association of Realtors increase the speed of travel to and from yearly survey of housing preferences suburban and exurban areas (International (Dill, 2015) has consistently reported Transport Forum, 2015; Patel, Levin & a dominant preference for larger lots, Boyles, 2016) as they take advantage of proximity to open space, and proximity to the potential speed increases on low- nature. If it becomes easier to reach areas conflict roads such as suburban arterials, further in the periphery that have these highways and freeways. This would properties, individuals—without the limits allow travelers to reach further into the imposed by our current transportation periphery of cities while maintaining their system— may preference these properties current commute time. over ones closer to the center. If commute times become less important and travel Currently, average commute time in the speeds increase, the need for labor to United States is approximately 26 minutes be near employment, and vice versa, each direction per day (U.S. Census may be reduced. This could free up Bureau, 2017). Although this number has both residential and employment lands remained fairly consistent in recent years, for development based on other criteria this might change with the usage of AVs such as lower land costs, limited land as this new technology allows comuuters use constraints, and limited neighbor to shift our use of time from driving to a opposition. range of activities such as social media, working, eating, or sleeping. Thus, it Set against this, however, are the is conceivable that individuals might preferences, described in Richard accept a slightly longer commute time Florida’s book “The Rise of the Creative than they have now as travel time gains Class” (2002), that knowledge economy utility and is not seen as a lost part of the workers consistently prefer environments day (Harb, Xiao, Circella, Mokhtarian, & with a “vibrant quality of place” and Walker, 2018). While there are conceivable “an abundance of things to do,” which absolute limits to the time individuals will typically favors denser urban areas. spend on their commute, a slight increase Recent trends point to Millennials in acceptable travel time, combined with (those born between 1981 – 1997), as the increased travel speeds offered by AV a demographic that is more diverse suburban commutes, could allow travelers than previous generations, less likely to to reach even further into the periphery be homeowners, and more interested of cities. Marchetti’s Constant, or the in intergenerational housing typology, notion that approximately 30 minutes of which is typically not found in outer travel time has remained the consistently suburbia (Choi, Zhu, Goodman, Ganesh, acceptable range across modes, eras, or & Strochak, 2018; Y. Lee, Lee, & Shubho, geographic locations (Marchetti, 1994), 2019). Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 02 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 45 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 02|forces of change Description of forces assumptions first order impacts Shift in Modes Travel behavior theory suggests that the have seen transit ridership grow in the last decision to use one mode over another is year because they have invested in tran- informed by a variety of factors including, sit focusing on core high-capacity routes but not limited to, socioeconomic status, (Lindblom, 2018; Kerr, 2018). age, the price of gas, urban form, and the availability of transportation options. In a The growth of TNCs in the last several 2016 white paper published by Circella years has impacted travel behavior and and colleagues, researchers analyzed the preliminary research suggests that TNCs National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) are among the factors impacting transit and found that while the total number of ridership (Graehler Jr., Mucci, & Erhardt, person trips increased between 2019; Manville et al., 2018). In a 1995 and 2009, mode distri- Boston-area study conducted bution shifted away from by the Metropolitan Area vehicles and the per- Planning Council (MAPC), centage of person trips those who ride researchers found that made by car decreased “transit more often are weekly or monthly (Circella, Tiedeman, transit pass holders are Handy, Alemi, & more likely to drop it for substituting TNCs for Mokhtarian, 2016). Buehler and Hamre ride hailing, even while transit more frequently, and that those “who found that Americans doing so at a huge cost ride transit more often became increasingly differential. are more likely to drop it multimodal during that for ride hailing, even while same time period (Buehler Gehrke et al., 2018 doing so at a huge cost & Hamre, 2015). However, differential, and even when several more recent reports they have already paid for the found that transit ridership is de- transit” (Gehrke et al., 2018). creasing in most major U.S. cities, which may be attributed to a variety of factors TNCs may also be replacing trips that including, but not limited to: a sustained otherwise would have been made by period of economic growth following the walking and biking. Using weighted data, Great Recession; the rise of transporta- Clewlow and Mishra found that only 39% tion network companies; higher rates of of trips made using Uber and Lyft would car ownership; neighborhood change and otherwise have been made by car (i.e. migration patterns related to displace- drive alone, carpool, or taxi; Clewlow & ment and gentrification; and declining gas Mishra, 2017). The majority of trips would prices (Manville, Taylor, & Blumenberg, otherwise not have been made at all, or 2018; Siddiqui, 2018b). There are a few would have been made by walking, biking, notable exceptions, including both Seat- or transit. Transit services being too slow, tle, WA and Vancouver, B.C.; both cities not having enough stops or stations, 46 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 02 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE first order impacts Implication of the forces Citations and not having service at times needed SAVs or on-demand driverless shuttles were the primary reasons respondents could dramatically reduce costs cited for substituting ridehailing for transit associated with the first- and last-mile (Clewlow & Mishra, 2017). These findings portions of a trip, which could serve to are corroborated by MAPC in Boston. complement transit use. But a shift to According to MAPC researchers, 42% of SAVs could impact mode choice and the people they surveyed indicated they spur some to switch from an active would otherwise have taken public transit mode to an SAV. Research findings on for their trip and an additional 12% said this topic suggest that up to 10% of they would have walked or biked (Gehrke travelers could switch from walking and et al., 2018). cycling to AVs (Childress et al., 2015; Davidson & Spinoulas, 2015). Also, If AVs offer lower travel costs, potential researchers project that if AV operating modal shifts may occur depending on trip costs decrease by 50% and perceived distances and purposes (LaMondia et al., travel time costs decrease by 10-50%, 2016). According to LaMondia’s study, at public transportation and walking and certain AV travel time valuations, the cost cycling would decrease by 14% and 11% of travel may not be a significant factor respectively. Truong and colleagues (2017) and as the perceived travel time benefits assume that if vehicle occupancy rates from driverless cars rise, monetary costs remain unchanged and mode shifts from may become less important. Lower public transportation and active modes to operating costs, lower costs of parking, AVs occur, vehicle trips would increase by increased roadway capacity, and a over 7%. reduced perceived cost of travel could incentivize a mode shift to AVs (Fulton, Mason, & Meroux, 2017). This assumes, however, that other elements of the transportation system, such as transit frequency and reliability, remain similar to or the same as they are today. Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 02 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 47 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 02|forces of change Description of forces assumptions first order impacts Competition for the Right-of-Way (ROW) The public right-of-way, which need to consider several components, encompasses the sidewalk, curb, and including loading zones, paratransit and street, plays a vital role in creating an accessibility loading, metered parking efficient transport system. Demand for this spots, bus stops, and passenger drop- limited space has been increasing over the off zones (NACTO, 2017c). Because AVs past several years with the introduction may be able to travel more efficiently than of TNCs, the increase in urban delivery, conventional vehicles, ROW could be the expansion of bikesharing programs, reallocated to other modes. Street design and the deployment of e-scooters. As a in an autonomous future could place more result, managing the competing demands emphasis on walking, biking, and transit, for this space is increasingly complicated. as well as helping to establish safer speed If AVs proliferate, an increasing number of limits, and allowing the curbside to be pick-up and drop-off areas may become flexible for public and private uses (NACTO, necessary. Curb management for AVs will 2017b). Figure 10. Multiple uses of the right-of-way (ROW) GREENING PERSONAL VEHICLES PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION BIKESHARE/E-SCOOTER ACTIVE TRANSPORTATION STORAGE TNC FREE PARKIN G e t of Th s High Co Park ing ree F HOUPLD S DONA TNC ELECTRIC CAR CHARGING RIDE-HAILING PARKING COURIER SERVICES UTILITIES FREIGHT/GOODS DELIVERY STREETERIES Source: Michelle Montiel for Urbanism Next. 48 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 02 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE first order impacts Implication of the forces Citations Changes in Goods and Meal Delivery With the continued growth of e-commerce and restaurants may choose to deliver coupled with the advent of AV their products via driverless methods to technologies, goods delivery will likely cut down on last-mile delivery costs. It continue to increase to meet consumer also seems likely that the demand for demand. The automation of technology restaurant delivery will continue to grow. will make it easier to haul goods over UberEats, for example, has expanded to long distances by road, air, and sea. In 280 cities in a four-year period between a recent survey, 49% of shoppers said 2014 and 2018 (Kludt & Geneen, 2018). that same day shipping would make them Some restaurants now operate as more likely to shop online; however, only delivery-only in order to reduce the 15% of global retailers offer same-day costs associated with running an eat-in delivery (Asper, 2017). Therefore, on- establishment, or use shared commissary demand delivery provided by AVs may kitchens for food preparation for delivery- help to grow current and future goods only meals. delivery. More brick-and-mortar retailers Source: Starship Technologies Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 02 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 49 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 02|forces of change Description of forces assumptions first order impacts Shifting Nature of Freight AV technologies have the potential to tethered electronically and overseen by profoundly impact many aspects of the one driver could significantly reduce the freight industry and may help to tackle cost of point-to-point linehaul journeys current issues that the industry faces, (Gibbs, 2017). Several companies that such as labor shortages and high rates are working on developing autonomous of driver turnover. With new technology trucks, including Uber’s advanced platforms, autonomous trucks could Technologies Group, are relying on a become integrated into the logistics “transfer hub” model. In this model, chain, potentially providing players across long-haul autonomous trucks stop at the supply chain with more transparent transfer stations in order to exchange information about the status of goods trailers with conventional trucks, which shipments and movements. Highly are then operated by local drivers automated, driverless, or fully-automated to their final destinations (Clevenger, trucks may also help increase the speed 2018). Automation could improve freight of delivery, since the need for driver rest efficiency and capacity, which would periods would be reduced or nullified, reduce transportation costs, and possibly, and distribution routes could be planned the cost of the goods themselves. Further differently (Flämig, 2016). Also, the ability reductions in the cost of delivery could to have autonomous trucks operate also lead to an increase in the demand for in a “platoon” with multiple vehicles goods delivery. Changes in Demand for Warehousing Space Package and parcel volumes have Industrial Forecast Report predicts that by continued to accelerate year-over-year the end of 2019, 782 million square feet of with the continued growth of e-commerce new warehouse space will have entered (Synchrony Finance, 2016). As a result, the North American market (Cushman companies are choosing to localize & Wakefield, 2017). Technological warehousing construction so that supply developments provide opportunities chains and logistics are moving closer to for businesses to make efficiency consumers in order to increase efficiency improvements, and smart warehousing (Cerasis, 2018). The North American solutions may become the core model. 50 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 02 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE first order impacts Implication of the forces Citations Reduction of Certain Types of Brick-and-Mortar Stores As e-commerce business has expanded, shuttering: Payless announced that it more mall retailers and department stores planned to close more than 2,500 stores have shuttered around the country. U.S. after filing for bankruptcy in February stores closings totaled over 5,000 in 2017, 2019 (Peterson, 2019). In order to stay and there were nearly 4,100 store closures competitive, traditional brick-and-mortar in the first half of 2018 alone, more than retailers have started or expanded their double the 2,000 openings in the same own e-commerce operations. Wal-Mart timeframe (Cheng, 2018; Timmermann, Stores, Inc. spent $3.3 billion to take over 2018). More than 8,000 stores are e-commerce start-up Jet.com and Wal- expected to close in the U.S. by the end Mart’s U.S. e-commerce sales climbed of 2019 (Peterson, 2019). Chains like 63% in the second quarter in 2017 Macy’s, Best Buy, and Payless have been (Bowman, 2017). Increasing Interest in Experiential Retail While some types of brick-and-mortar Experience-driven retail appeals to retail have been struggling to compete consumers who strongly favor in-store with e-commerce, other types of retail, shopping experiences to online shopping. especially “experiential retail,” have They prefer a unique experience that been flourishing. Experiential retail differentiates their spending and they favors immersive, interactive, and often, are willing to pay 32% more (on average) technology-enhanced experiences for for that experience (Synchrony Finance, consumers (Ruff, 2019). The most familiar 2016). With the introduction of AVs, the “experiential retail” environment is likely need for parking will likely be reduced, the Apple Store. Apple Stores emphasize and delivery costs may go down, further the “experience” with the physical exacerbating these retail trends. Auto- environment replicating the sleekness of oriented strip malls and big-box stores its product. Since the first Apple Store may face more shrinkage as consumers opened in 2001, other retailers have opt to travel to experiential retail but seen the value of this retail model, which order household goods and other items typically requires a smaller footprint, online. According to one study, customer and are gradually using it to replace experience will overtake price and the traditional large footprint big-box product as the key brand differentiator experience. by 2020 and 86% of consumers will pay more for a better experience (Walker Consultants, 2013). Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 02 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 51 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 02|forces of change Description of forces assumptions first order impacts Implications of the Forces of Change and First Order Impacts The forces of change and first order impacts previously described are largely focused on the built environment and how city form and function is changing. The following section explores what the implications of these changes may be for equity, health, the environment, the economy, and governance. Equity Access to Mobility Income Disparity New mobility technologies and the other Today’s income disparities are at an forces of change discussed above could outsize level, with the richest 0.1% holding have positive equity implications, but it is the same amount of wealth as the bottom also possible that these changes could 90% of the population (National League further exacerbate existing inequities in of Cities, 2017). The emergence of new transportation and mobility access (Asenjo transport technologies may exacerbate et al., 2017). On the one hand, AVs have the geographic inequality as higher-income potential to expand mobility for people who populations have more opportunities to have been underserved, such as people choose where they live, and AVs could with disabilities, seniors, low-income contribute to further stratification. Also, populations, and people living in areas higher-income earners stand to gain with limited modal options. On the other greater financial benefits from adopting hand, many new mobility technologies time-saving modes of transport, such require access to smartphones, data as AVs, and they will likely be early and plans, and credit/debit cards, and have more widespread adopters (McLaughlin, very few, if any, language options. Lower- 2017). Additionally, AVs could potentially income populations may not have the eliminate some middle- and low-wage same access to technology and credit as jobs, such as in the trucking industry, higher-income populations. According to and may displace workers who drive a Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation for a living, further exacerbating income survey (2018), 8.4 million U.S. households disparity. were unbanked in 2017, and an additional 24.2 million were underbanked, meaning that they obtained some financial services outside of the banking system. As a result, new mobility technologies including AVs could further widen the gap of access to mobility across different income groups and geographical areas. 52 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 02 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE first order impacts Implication of the forces Citations Wealth Creation Workforce Impacts Mobility is a crucial component of The commercial deployment of AVs may employment access, which is inextricably have serious and far-reaching workforce linked to wealth creation. A lack of reliable impacts. One group of workers that may and efficient transportation options is a be displaced by AVs are truckers and significant barrier to upward economic for-hire drivers. The World Economic mobility (Chetty, Hendren, Kline, & Saez, Forum estimates that the confluence of 2014). New mobility technologies have the automation technology could displace potential to improve services, efficiency, approximately 5.1 million jobs across and quality of life if they are implemented 15 major economies by 2020 (World equitably (National League of Cities, Economic Forum, 2018). Depending on 2017). the rate of adoption, autonomous trucks and cars could directly eliminate 1.3 to Displacement 2.3 million workers’ jobs over the next 30 years in the United States (Groshen, Helper, MacDuffie, & Carson, 2018). New mobility can accelerate growth in Groshen and colleagues estimate that a city. However, if services are limited this could raise the annual unemployment to certain areas, they may contribute to rate by 0.1% and lower the overall increasingly expensive housing in those labor participation rate annually. Even if areas as demand increases, potentially technological advancements have the resulting in displacement of certain potential to create thousands of new jobs, populations. There has been some many of the new roles that are created will evidence to suggest that this been the require higher skills and education, which case around transit stations, with property can be a barrier to retraining displaced values increasing in these areas (Buyahar, employees for those positions. 2019). New transportation technology, along with redevelopment of space and urban design, may mainly attract— and focus on serving—higher income populations who can afford to live in the places with those services. Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 02 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 53 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 02|forces of change Description of forces assumptions first order impacts Health Level of Physical Activity Safety AVs and other new mobility technologies AVs could dramatically reduce the number could have positive and/or negative of automobile-related injuries and fatalities implications for public health depending that occur annually. Since human error on a variety of factors, including the rate contributes to 90% of crashes, AVs could and manner of AV deployment, as well as significantly reduce crash rates (Fagnant decisions made by city officials regarding & Kockelman, 2014). AV technology will the built environment. Some cities may allow vehicles to incorporate machine use the introduction of AVs to modify their learning, such as safety data, and urban and street design to make cities comprehensive risk predictions through more encouraging of active transportation sensors, cameras, radars, etc., which modes, such as walking and biking. This could help increase safety. In addition, would increase the levels of physical the potential for increased road capacity activity and its associated health benefits. and flow stability, as is anticipated by Moreover, a dramatically reduced demand AVs, may be conducive to improving road for parking may result in parking lots safety. However, it is difficult to assess being redeveloped in ways that could how safe autonomous vehicles are or make streets and cities become more will be given limited data about those compact, which would promote active currently in deployment, as well as the transportation (Richland, Lee, & Butto, relative nascence of the technology. There 2016a). However, if AVs reduce the cost are also varying levels of automation. of travel to the point where the reliance Automated vehicles that share some on the automobile for travel further responsibility with human operators, such increases, this could negatively impact as Level 3 AVs, may require intervention physical activity and increase sedentary in emergency situations. This could make behaviors (Ding et al., 2014). With AVs, decision-making more as opposed to less people may also be willing to commute complex and could negatively impact road longer distances, which could exacerbate safety (International Transport Forum, sprawl, reduce physical activity, and 2018). expand built form that lacks access to active transportation. 54 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 02 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE first order impacts Implication of the forces Citations Exposure to Pollution Mental Health AVs may help reduce dependence on There are several ways that AVs may fossil fuels if they are primarily electric, as impact mental health. First, the potential anticipated. Compared to current driving improvement of road safety could possibly patterns, AVs will likely be able to drive lessen the stress experienced by road more efficiently, with less stopping and users. For people in vehicles, they may starting and fewer crash-induced traffic be less likely to stress about common jams (Richland et al., 2016a). Reduced commuting woes such as congestion if emissions would positively impact AVs free up that time for activities other public health and could lower rates of than driving. AVs could also increase respiratory-related illnesses and deaths. access to places for social interaction and However, as discussed previously, AVs social support by increasing access to may also increase VMT/VKT which may mobility, particularly for populations that not offset pollution reduction even if the are currently underserved by the current efficiency of driving is improved, in part transportation system, such as elderly because they will share the road with populations and people with disabilities. conventional vehicles for many years. In a study that simulated potential AV use by providing 13 households with an on- demand chauffeur for a week, researchers found that the retiree cohort increased their VMT, the number of long trips taken, and the number of evening trips taken the most compared to the other cohorts (Harb, Xiao, Circella, Mokhtarian, & Walker, 2018). Additionally, the potential opportunities for placemaking due to a reduction in parking (e.g., more parks and green space), and the potential for air quality improvements due to the adoption of electric AVs could be conducive to mental health (Rojas- Rueda, 2017). However, another study suggests that isolated travel periods could limit social interaction, which could have negative impacts on mental health (Boniface et al., 2015). Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 02 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 55 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 02|forces of change Description of forces assumptions first order impacts Access to Healthy Food Access to Health Care In addition to cities assisting with the AVs also have the potential to provision of access to healthy food increase access to health care if they through spot zoning, AVs may increase provide expanded mobility options, access to healthy foods. New delivery particularly for low-income populations, models could decrease the time and cost seniors, and people with disabilities. of delivery services, which may benefit Transportation barriers can result in those who cannot afford cars or other missed appointments and poor health types of mobility, or who are unable to management (Cronk, 2015). Researchers travel. However, whether AVs will be in New York surveyed nearly 700 low- transformational for these populations income people living in suburban areas in need will depend, in part, on how and found that nearly one-quarter the cost of accessing AVs compares to had missed a medical appointment other transportation options, such as or been forced to reschedule due to mass transit or emerging on-demand taxi transportation difficulties (D. Silver, services, as well as the physical proximity Blustein, & Weitzman, 2012). Limited to goods and services (Richland, Lee, & transit schedules and routes can be Butto, 2016b). barriers to accessing health care. On- demand transportation services that are characterized by more flexible routing may help to mitigate some of these barriers. A pilot project conducted from June through November 2019 in Columbus, OH will provide free, on-demand rides to health care appointments for low-income expectant mothers (Bliss, 2018b). The extent to which AVs are able to increase access to health care will, of course, depend on their affordability and other factors. 56 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 02 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE first order impacts Implication of the forces Citations Economy Shift in Industries/Labor the restaurant industry. Additionally, a reduction in parking demand could Many industries may face upheaval if they reshape the urban landscape, which will are not able to adapt to the changes that likely impact those involved in real estate. AVs will bring to the market. According AVs will most likely be deployed as fleets to CB Insights, fast food, real estate, rather than private vehicles, at least early military operations, and even industries on, which may have the effect of turning like home improvement (approximately car dealerships into AV fleet support and 33 industries), will shift their strategies service centers. Autonomous technology in the wake of driverless cars (CB also requires data centers and high-speed Insights Research, 2018). The demand connections to support the infrastructure for insurance may decrease as the risk of AV systems, potentially generating new of car crashes drop, and insurance jobs in information technology and data companies may shift business strategies, analysis. such as charging based on the number of miles are driven. Driverless technology may also further expand food delivery services and make delivery operations more efficient, which could further impact Many industries may face upheaval if ther are not able to adapt to the changes AVs will bring to the market. Image Source: Priscilla Du Preez for Unsplash and Starship technologies. Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 02 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 57 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 02|forces of change Description of forces assumptions first order impacts Environment Greenhouse Gas Emissions Particulate Pollution The broad deployment of AVs has the Studies examining the environmental potential to reduce greenhouse gas benefits of electric vehicles compared to emissions (GHG) if AVs are primarily conventional vehicles have generally electric, as anticipated. One study found found that EVs offer net positive benefits that AVs with electric power-trains have (Requia, Mohamed, Higgins, Arain, & lifetime greenhouse gas emissions that Ferguson, 2018). However, EVs have are 40% lower than vehicles powered been shown to have a greater impact on by internal-combustion engines (Gawron ground-level ozone (O3) than fine et al., 2018). Replacing conventional, particulate matter (PM2.5) (Schnell et al., gasoline-powered vehicles with electric 2019). Additionally, Schnell et al. found AVs will likely reduce GHGs, but the that the source of electricity for EVs deployment of AVs will also likely happen exhibits greater control over PM2.5, in stages. As a result, AVs are expected to which suggests the impacts of electric share the road with conventional vehicles AVs on particulate pollution could be for years. If the cost of traveling is lowered more regional and dependent on the local by AVs and VMT/VKT increases, as fuel mix. previously discussed, this could have the effect of increasing GHGs since there would be more vehicles on the road overall. Quality and Extent of Habitat The potential positive and negative may affect biodiversity and other species’ impacts of AVs on air quality and habitats without land use planning ecosystems are based on the policies to protect natural/farmland areas assumptions mentioned above. AVs also and restrict development. However, have the potential to change and reshape should the potential for improvements to urban areas and how people use space. streets and the public realm in cities be More people may choose to live further realized this could make urban living more from cities because the travel (monetary attractive, thus offsetting some of the and time) costs may be reduced, which potential induced sprawl. could further exacerbate sprawl. This 58 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 02 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE first order impacts Implication of the forces Citations Governance Municipal Revenues and compared to the current structure. Data and information from TNCs and logistics Finance industries can help cities adjust pricing regulations by managing the supply and AVs could have profound impacts on demand spatially and temporally. The flip government revenues. According to a side may be that the potential for greater survey by Governing of the 25 largest U.S efficiencies of AVs could reduce current cities, cities took in a total of nearly $5 projected needs for infrastructure. billion in the 2016 fiscal year from parking- related activities (56%), camera and traffic citations (12%), gas taxes (14%), towing Government Structure and (2%), and vehicle registration and licensing Hierarchy fees (13%; Governing, 2018). These revenue streams could be immediately Different levels of government have and directly affected by AVs as a result different roles in the regulation of AVs. of decreasing car ownership, reduction in The federal government is responsible sales tax revenue from local auto dealers, for regulating motor vehicle design, the proliferation of hybrid and electric safety, and equipment. According to vehicles, reduced demand for parking, USDOT, the role of the U.S. Department and a decrease in the number of citations of Transportation is “acting as a convener issued. The loss of municipal revenue and facilitator, partnering with a broad due to the pervasive effects of AVs will coalition of industry, academic, states and likely impact policy, planning, investment, local, safety advocacy to support the safe and design decisions by public agencies, development, testing, and deployment private business, investors and the public of automated vehicle technology” at large (Clark, Larco, & Mann, 2017; Clark (USDOT, 2018). The National Highway & Lewis, 2018; Clements & Kockelman, and Transportation Safety Administration 2017). Faced with potentially significant (NHTSA) released guidelines that offer reductions in revenue due to EVs, AVs, best practices for state legislatures about and new mobility in general, cities will incorporating standard safety-related likely need to strategize on how to recover elements regarding AV systems into those revenue holes. their legislation (NHTSA, 2017). At the AVs could lead to entirely new state level, the role includes regulating mechanisms for collecting revenue from other aspects such as insurance and transportation. Governments may enact liability, enacting new traffic laws (e.g., strategies to develop alternative revenue speed limits), licensing requirements, streams to offset the loss of fuel tax, vehicle registrations, safety inspections, such as introducing a VMT tax to replace etc. Local government is responsible revenue lost from gas taxes and parking for dealing with the immediate, on-the- (T. Lee, 2016), taxing SAVs, pricing the ground effects of autonomous vehicles, curb, etc. A new regulatory structure may such as parking, street design, and curb pose different privacy and data concerns management. 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Retrieved from https://www.ny- times.com/2017/12/11/business/airports-ride-hailing-services.html Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 02 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 71 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 72 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 03 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 03 | Impacts on Transportation Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 03 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 73 03|Impacts on Transportation FIRST ORDER IMPACTS SECOND ORDER IMPACTS INTEGRATIVE impacts ImplicationS OF IMPACTS Introduction Autonomous vehicles have the potential but these changes are also impacting to reshape car access and travel as we the transportation system in turn. More know it, with far-reaching consequences acutely than land use, urban design, for urban design, land use, real estate, and real estate, which are primarily and other transportation modes. Cities being affected by emerging mobility must now begin to reconcile the potential technologies, transportation is both impacts that AVs and shifting parking affecting change and simultaneously demand and infrastructure may yield, being affected. The advancement of ranging from effects on municipal budgets autonomous vehicles, ridehailing services, to divergent futures for mobility equity. and the early evidence of willingness to use new micromobility options provides Transportation is a particularly interesting new opportunities for cities to rethink their topic in the context of this report transportation systems. In particular, there because advancements in transportation are renewed opportunities to increase technology are the primary drivers of more sustainable modes such as walking, the changes we have been discussing, biking, and transit. 74 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 03 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE ImplicationS OF IMPACTS nEEDED RESEARCH cITATIONs FIRST ORDER IMPACTS Change in Parking Demand Change in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and Congestion Competition for the Right-Of-Way (ROW) Change in goods and meal delivery sECOND ORDER IMPACTS WALKING/BIKING/TRANSIT Parking/vehicles Integrative impacts land use urban design Real Estate IMPLICATIONS OF secondary impacts on transportation equity health economy environment governance areas of needed research Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 03 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 75 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs Chapter organization 03|Impacts on Transportation FIRST ORDER IMPACTS SECOND ORDER IMPACTS INTEGRATIVE impacts ImplicationS OF IMPACTS First Order Impacts affecting Transportation The rise of new mobility and e-commerce in parking demand, change in vehicle and goods delivery will dramatically miles/kilometers traveled and congestion, reshape transportation. The first order competition for the right-of-way, and impacts that will affect other modes, changes in goods and meal delivery. parking, and vehicles include: change Change in Parking Demand Researchers to date have voraciously in locations where TNC use is high and studied transportation network companies parking is scarce and expensive, such as (TNCs), a harbinger of a new era of car sports stadiums, airports, and popular access and their assumed eventual nightlife destinations (Zipkin, 2017). Such successor, AVs. TNC user surveys isolated stories, however, also reveal the suggest that a primary motivator for users work ahead to understand the changes to hail a ride is to avoid expensive or that TNCs, and eventually AVs, may scarce parking (Clewlow & Mishra, 2017; bring to parking demand, which some Gehrke, Felix, & Reardon, 2018; Henao, researchers suggest may reduce the 2017). While potential links between TNC overall need for parking by an average of use and parking remain unexplored in 62% and a maximum of 87% (Nourinejad, rigorous research, anecdotal news stories Bahrami, & Roorda, 2018). suggest that parking rates have fallen Some researchers suggest that parking demand may reduce by an average of 62% and a maximum of 87% with the use of TNCs and eventually AVs. Image Source: Gerry Van DerWalt for Unsplash. 76 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 03 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE ImplicationS OF IMPACTS nEEDED RESEARCH cITATIONs Change in Vehicle Miles Traveled and Congestion AVs may increase or decrease total e-commerce continues to boom, and, as vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in the future; some have predicted, brick-and-mortar most researchers predict the former, stores take to the streets in roving AVs citing surveys that report mode shift that deliver goods or services to peoples’ from transit and active modes to TNCs doors—or perhaps perform services, (Clewlow & Mishra, 2017; Henao, 2017). like a haircut, on the journey. Additional Additional surveys are needed, however, goods-delivery services, which are to understand when, where, and for what already on the rise with TNC-enabled trip purposes these potential mode shifts platforms like UberEats (now in 120 might occur. VMT and congestion may markets worldwide after growing by more also rise if, for example, AVs circle blocks than 24 times between March 2016 and continuously waiting to pick up their 2017; Isaac, 2017), could also emerge and passenger rather than parking. Finally, add to VMT. VMT and congestion could increase as Competition for Right-of-Way Much of parking is currently in the right- for both TNCs and commercial vehicles of-way; already, TNCs and expanding (Lazo, 2018). Increased competition for goods delivery spurred by e-commerce curb space has highlighted the value of are increasing the competition for once the curb—what Quartz has called cities’ stagnant curb spaces dedicated to “hottest asset” (Hao, 2018)—and cities storing individually-owned vehicles. are increasingly exploring dynamic pricing Increased competition for curb space strategies to encourage turnover. While raises questions about whether parking many of these programs are limited to should remain in the right-of-way, or passenger spaces, efforts to map cities’ if curb space is better dedicated to curbs (Hao, 2018) may allow dynamic other modes or uses, including loading pricing for goods and passenger vehicles zones. For example, Washington, D.C. as well as shifting functions over the has implemented 24/7 loading zones course of a day. Changes in GOODS and meal Delivery AVs remove driver labor costs and could to increase goods movement in the therefore dramatically lower the cost of future. Goods and services could also be delivering goods both for long-distance delivered on AVs rather than just by AVs trucking and for last-mile goods delivery. if vehicles themselves become stores or Rising rates of e-commerce are likely service providers. Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 03 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 77 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 03|Impacts on Transportation FIRST ORDER IMPACTS SECOND ORDER IMPACTS INTEGRATIVE impacts ImplicationS OF IMPACTS Second Order Impacts on Transportation The purpose of this section is to consider how the first order impacts described above may impact transportation. The second order impacts are largely speculative in nature and are meant to summarize projected impacts along various dimensions. For organizational purposes, we group walking, biking, and transit together in this section, and discuss parking and vehicles as a separate grouping. Walking/Biking/Transit Mode Shift The implications of AVs and other on-demand vehicles for other modes will Travelers are more likely to bicycle and likely also vary over the short- versus walk when they feel safe and comfortable long-term. For example, carshare (Xing, Handy, & Mokhtarian, 2010), and literature suggests that being able to AVs are expected to delivery safety access a car when one needs it allows improvements, which could encourage people to reduce personal car ownership more active travel in the future if the or delay purchasing an additional car (Le risks to pedestrians are reduced. At Vine & Polak, 2017) which might in turn the same time, current studies of TNCs lead to some users no longer treating suggest that on-demand vehicle travel cars as their default mode for most trips. could either complement or substitute TNCs and eventually AVs may likewise for existing modes, or both. For example, allow people to limit or reduce personal on-demand vehicles may expand transit car ownership, particularly in the long run, catchment areas, improving individual if they make other modes more attractive access to transit (Shaheen & Chan, 2016). than traveling by personal or privately- Numerous transit agencies are currently owned vehicles. There is already some piloting such connections, testing the evidence to support this—there are some efficacy of TNC-transit partnerships urban areas where the share of “car- in boosting transit access. Surveys of free” households (no cars available) and TNC users also suggest, however, that “car-light” households (fewer cars than travelers replace active travel and transit— workers) increased between 2012 and at least to some extent—with TNC trips 2017 (Schaller, 2019). However, if the cost (Clewlow & Mishra, 2017; Henao, 2017). of a ride in a fleet-based AV is extremely Additional research is needed to better low, the opportunity for more trips to be understand potential modal replacement, taken by vehicle is high. Finally, if AVs including when, where, and for what trip have right-of-way priority, other modes purposes people may substitute vehicle may continue to be restricted due to travel for other modes. space limitations. 78 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 03 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE ImplicationS OF IMPACTS nEEDED RESEARCH cITATIONs Safety Impacts More First- and Last-Mile Connections Some researchers focus on the potential bicycle and pedestrian safety According to the 2017 National Household improvements enabled by AVs, predicting Travel Survey, 35% of vehicle trips are 20-65% fewer conflicts with vehicles once two miles or less (Federal Highway AVs have achieved between 50 and 100 Administration, 2017), yet many of the percent market penetration (Morando, origins or destinations of such trips may Tian, Truong, & Vu, 2018). However, as be in lower density areas difficult to the vehicle fleet transitions from driver- serve by transit. Whether the entire trip is based to driverless, there may be periods two miles or less, or the end of a transit of confusion for other road users as to trip is such a distance (the first- and whether they have been seen by vehicles last-mile problem), increases in shared or drivers. If pedestrians become used micromobility systems and AV ridehailing to driverless vehicles stopping for them availability may increase the opportunities and cross at non-signalized intersections for more of these short trips to be taken more frequently, it is possible that safety using a transportation mode other than a could decrease if a less attentive car with single-occupancy vehicle. a driver is present rather than an AV. Source: Fred Joe for Urbanism Next. Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 03 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 79 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 03|Impacts on Transportation FIRST ORDER IMPACTS SECOND ORDER IMPACTS INTEGRATIVE impacts ImplicationS OF IMPACTS Potential for Increased Mode Conflicts Transit Mode interaction will become increasingly A combination of reallocated street space more complex as new modes (e-bikes, coupled with land use densification (if scooters, etc.) share the right-of-way with off-street parking lots are repurposed for AVs and there is an increase in the need housing) could increase opportunities for to access the curb with the rise of TNCs, transit-supportive development patterns. microtransit, and goods delivery. Since This may lead to an expansion of transit AVs will, presumably, be deployed with service and frequency. the technology required to avoid hitting objects their utilization could potentially Transit vehicles are also likely to move be disrupted by pedestrians or other toward automated operation, which road users who may choose to step out significantly reduces costs of operation in front AVs more frequently than they and therefore increases opportunities for do conventional vehicles today if the increased transit frequency and extended expectation is that it will always stop. hours of operations, both of which may lead to increased transit use. Competition for Sidewalk Space AVs are expected to increase the rates of passengers loading and unloading curbside, which would likely increase general activity on sidewalks. Delivery robots accessing storefronts or individual homes may further compete for space with pedestrians and sidewalk users, potentially impacting rates of walk trips. 80 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 03 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE ImplicationS OF IMPACTS nEEDED RESEARCH cITATIONs Parking/Vehicles Shifting Vehicle Ownership Parking Dispersal vs. Structure Concentration AVs will likely come with a high price In addition to changing the amount of tag, require frequent software upgrades parking demanded, AVs may also affect (Anderson et al., 2014), and employ the geography of that demand. Currently, technologies that would allow fleets to parking is sited close to destinations and operate at lower costs compared to dispersed throughout cities and regions. It private vehicles (Bösch, Becker, Becker, & remains to be seen if AV parking will likewise Axhausen, 2018). As a result, we assume be dispersed throughout regions to be closer that large-scale AV services will most likely to the markets they serve, or concentrated be rolled out as subscription-based fleets, in fewer locations to capitalize on economies rather than individually owned vehicles, at of scale and better service fleet-based least initially. The long-term transition from needs (such as large-scale charging and personal- to fleet-owned vehicles would maintenance) and/or to take maximum mark a radical departure from the car advantage of differences in land values access patterns that have prevailed over across a region. In other words, will AV fleets the past 100 years, with broad implications park in concentrated parking structures near for travel behavior and the costs of car central cities where they can be deployed travel. The transition would also yield quickly to market, or will they gravitate infrastructure and financial ramifications toward cheaper land farther from city as ownership and management shifts centers? The latter would follow the pattern from a dispersed number of individuals to, seen in e-commerce distribution centers, potentially, fewer centrally-managed fleets. many of which have located on cheaper land at the fringes of regions, rather than expensive land located in the densest and/ or highest-income parts of regions, which are also the locations of greatest demand. AVs will undoubtedly shift the amount and locations of vehicle parking; but the rise of new mobility also introduces new types of parking needs. Specifically, planners and policy makers are already considering how to manage parking for fleets of e-scooters and dockless bikes that blanket many cities; for example, Santa Monica has experimented with on-street e-scooter parking corrals (Linton, 2018), a need that could scarcely have been imagined just a couple of years ago. Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 03 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 81 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 03|Impacts on Transportation FIRST ORDER IMPACTS SECOND ORDER IMPACTS INTEGRATIVE impacts ImplicationS OF IMPACTS Integrative Impacts This section explores the relationships between the secondary impacts of transportation, noted above, to land use, urban design, and real estate, and the potential integrative impacts. Land Use Zoning could evolve to meet changing Walking, biking, and transit all benefit parking needs and land use demands. from and contribute to denser, more Repurposed parking garages and mixed-uses of land where trip origins and lots may transform land uses and destinations are closer together. Cities open up additional land for housing, that have made it a priority to make it commercial districts, or parks and open easier, more comfortable, more reliable, space. Already, some developers are and more convenient to use more space- constructing adaptable parking garages, efficient modes of transport see higher anticipating that reduced parking demand utilization of those modes, which in turn in the future will necessitate garage leads to a need for more space provided repurposing to alternate uses, such for those modes. As it becomes more as retail, residential, and public space convenient to use these space-efficient (GGLO Design, 2018; Marshall, 2016). The transportation modes, less land may changing geography of parking, vehicle be needed to move and store vehicles, storage, and fleet-based maintenance allowing for other uses (e.g., mixed-use will likely be strong factors shaping future development, public parks), which in land uses. turn contribute to and benefit from these transportation modes. Urban Design By increasing the ease of travel while AVs could also influence right-of-way lowering the cost, AVs could increase space allocation. For example, smaller sprawl and the metropolitan footprint; they vehicles that could operate closer to may also reduce demand for activities in one another may either reduce the width mid-range suburbs, with activities instead or number of lanes needed for safe concentrated in the center cities and operation. Changing parking needs—or on the periphery of metropolitan areas. perhaps the end of the need for a curb to Another possibility is concentrated dense separate vehicles from pedestrians—could urban nodes connected by sprawling also reshape the relationship between development. buildings and public rights-of-way. 82 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 03 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE ImplicationS OF IMPACTS nEEDED RESEARCH cITATIONs Real Estate E-commerce is already reshaping not transform real estate markets and land only goods delivery, but also the types values. Specifically, the combination of brick-and-mortar stores in our cities; of a large increase in land available for as online shopping continues to boom— housing, office space, or retail plus an growing by $40 billion each year between increase in the intensity of such uses 2014 and 2017 (Corkery, 2017)—big box allowed on individual parcels could stores are shuttering in many places, combine to depress land values in the replaced with smaller experiential stores. short term. This might have positive AVs could accelerate this trend if they effects on markets that are currently reduce the costs of good delivery by artificially constrained by zoning or eliminating drivers, or if they enable some onerous approval processes, such as stores to uproot and take to the streets as housing markets in many regions. mobile operations. AVs—and their accompanying effects on Upzoning, which can increase property parking—may dramatically change land values, may also occur where, and values, increasing them in some places if, parking requirements are reduced. and lowering them in others. Freeing up Previous research finds that housing land from parking could flood the market development has increased when parking with vacant land. Land use regulations minimums are relaxed or removed (Guo could be used to ensure that supply & Ren, 2013; Manville, 2013) . New matches demand for various land use development or uses of parcels previously types, hence mitigating the negative used to service individual car ownership— impacts on property values by better such as gas stations, car sales lots, matching demand to the available land and maintenance shops—may likewise supply. Freeing up land from parking could flood the market with vacant land available for housing, office space, or retail. Source: Randy Fath for Unsplash. Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 03 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 83 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 03|Impacts on Transportation FIRST ORDER IMPACTS SECOND ORDER IMPACTS INTEGRATIVE impacts ImplicationS OF IMPACTS Implications of Secondary Impacts on Transportation This section explores the potential implications of the secondary impacts of transportation on equity, health, the economy, the environment, and governance. Equity On one hand, changes to parking and vehicles could deliver a more equitable transportation future; on the other, it may exacerbate current inequities. What is changing in the era of AVs, ridehailing, and scooter and bikeshare systems, is that more people have a range of options to match their trip purpose with a transportation mode that is appropriate, moving beyond an era where car ownership or car access is required for nearly every trip taken. Given the opportunities to “right-size” streets, price parking, curb access, and street access in new ways, as well as the opportunity to significantly adjust parking requirements, there are opportunities to address significant issues of equity in the coming era. Unequal Car Access expand household access to cars. For example, in Los Angeles, travelers living Currently, car ownership divides in neighborhoods with low-levels of households into mobility “haves” personal auto access hailed Lyft trips and “have-nots,” with the majority of more frequently, suggesting that ride-hail households not owning a car due to a services may fill a latent demand for car constraint rather than choice (A. E. Brown, access (A. Brown, 2018). At the same 2017). Zero-car households make fewer time, however, many researchers find trips, travel fewer miles, and are excluded that ridehail users are disproportionately from the positive benefits conferred by car higher-income, younger, and well-educated ownership such as higher wages, finding (Clewlow & Mishra, 2017; Conway, Salon, work, and access to healthy foods (Gurley & King, 2018). TNCs, or AVs, therefore & Bruce, 2005; Raphael & Rice, 2002; run the risk of pricing out lower-income Walker, Keane, & Burke, 2010). Financial travelers. Additionally, technological constraints—including purchasing, barriers, including smartphone access and maintaining, and insuring a car—represent banking access, are both necessary to hail a primary barrier to car ownership (Waller, new services; without such access, shared 2005) with average costs in the U.S. services could widen the existing mobility hovering around $8,800 per year in 2017 divide rather than shrinking it (A. E. Brown (AAA, 2017). & Taylor, 2018). Ensuring that travelers with special transportation needs—such as Shifting car access from the current wheelchair accessible vehicles—will also ownership model to one where people be imperative to ensure that they continue pay for auto-mobility per trip may to have robust travel options. 84 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 03 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE ImplicationS OF IMPACTS nEEDED RESEARCH cITATIONs Source: Laura Dewilde for Unsplash. Effects on Transit Shifting Housing How the relationship between for-hire Affordability vehicles and transit unfolds will likewise prove critical for equity. TNCs, AVs, Shifts in vehicle and parking use and and other such services may improve geography could also alter the urban transit access, boosting mobility for footprint, land use, and real estate; such transit-dependent populations; or they alterations would likely affect housing could undermine services by diminishing costs and shift the landscape of housing ridership, siphoning off higher-income affordability. One risk is the continued riders, or miring transit vehicles in suburbanization of poverty (Kneebone & increased congestion. Garr, 2010), which could exacerbate the combined housing and transportation financial burden that low-income households bear and limit transportation options to those living in far-flung suburbs. Alternatively, changes in parking geographies could lower housing costs in job-rich areas and may enable lower- income individuals to better afford areas with the most multimodal travel options. Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 03 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 85 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 03|Impacts on Transportation FIRST ORDER IMPACTS SECOND ORDER IMPACTS INTEGRATIVE impacts ImplicationS OF IMPACTS Health Mode Shift Active transportation may become more would also yield divergent emissions or less attractive depending on the levels and therefore health scenarios. future safety and comfort engendered Health-related environmental justice by AVs. More specifically, the safety, issues could arise depending on which cost, and potential effects of AVs on the populations or communities bear the built environment may either help boost costs of fleet-related maintenance or bicycling and walking, or could undermine operations, or potentially increased levels them. The fuel mix of a future AV fleet of driving. Economy Labor Impacts sales, mechanics, drivers, parking attendants, and valets. However, steadier use of individual vehicles may actually Shifting from individual to fleet-based increase demand for maintenance and vehicle services, as well as automation, shorten vehicle lifespans, which could in could precipitate a loss of jobs in and turn preserve existing jobs or create new around the auto industry, such as car ones. Environment Reductions in Parking Lots Environmental Justice If demand for parking lots drops with the rise of AVs and new mobility options, Environmental justice issues could underutilized surface parking lots could emerge if fleet storage and maintenance be repurposed into other uses. Surface activities concentrate in low-income parking lots contribute to water pollution neighborhoods or communities of color, due to contaminants, which are picked disproportionately burdening these up by stormwater runoff, and their asphalt populations with vehicle traffic, emissions, surfaces retain heat which contributes and noise. to the urban heat island effect. Parking lots have many potential reuse options, including parks and open spaces. 86 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 03 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE ImplicationS OF IMPACTS nEEDED RESEARCH cITATIONs Emissions to reduce CO2 emissions, as well as improve air, land, and water health. The extent to which AVs are electrified However, changes in parking facilities’ and how they are used will affect size and location may also create urban emissions. The movement toward AVs heat island effects, which are associated will likely be electric whether privately- or with impaired health, increased pollutants, fleet-operated. Additionally, an increase in and worsened water quality in their trips made by non-polluting micromobility immediate surroundings (Environmental devices could hold significant opportunity Protection Agency, 2018). Governance Municipal Revenue Change in Political Will Both a shift to a fleet-based model The changing use of the street due to of car ownership and the widespread AVs, ridehailing, and the recent availability electrification of that fleet would upset of micromobility provide a unique current revenue streams and finance political moment for more communities structures. Individual ownership currently to more quickly reimagine their land use- requires a variety of taxes and fees transportation mix. For example, if the imposed at various points including need for vehicle parking decreases and sale, annual inspection, and licensing. it becomes less politically contentious, How or if such fees would be translated government officials may find it easier to into a fleet context remains to be seen. dedicate that land to other modes. Insurance, too, remains an open question both in terms of who bears liability in the age of AVs (cities, code-writers, fleet operators, or passengers) and in terms of revenue collection. Changes in parking revenue, fees, taxes, insurance, as well as reduced gas taxes that would accompany widespread electrification could dramatically curtail revenues used to build and maintain transportation infrastructure and will likely necessitate a broad rethinking of transportation finance. Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 03 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 87 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 03|Impacts on Transportation FIRST ORDER IMPACTS SECOND ORDER IMPACTS INTEGRATIVE impacts ImplicationS OF IMPACTS Areas of Needed Research Parking (Transportation) Question Type of question Method Policy implications What are current parking utilization rates? What Basic Research Data analysis Parking (types of) locations could requirements be use for AV storage? How much on-street and Parking demand off-street parking will be Modeling modeling Zoning code required with new mobility? Vehicles Question Type of question Method Policy implications What are scenarios for single vehicles to act as Modeling Transportation Regulations and both goods and people models licensing delivery? How can goods and people delivery vehicles minimize Modeling Transportation Regulations and impacts to congestion, models licensing VMT, and sustainability? 88 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 03 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE ImplicationS OF IMPACTS nEEDED RESEARCH cITATIONs Walk/Bike/Transit Question Type of question Method Policy implications How will increased curbside access needs impact Data analysis of Infrastructure safety, user experience, Basic Research crash/accident policy and capital and network efficiency of data improvement cycling, pedestrian, and programming transit trips? Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 03 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 89 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 03|Impacts on Transportation FIRST ORDER IMPACTS SECOND ORDER IMPACTS INTEGRATIVE impacts ImplicationS OF IMPACTS general transportatiON Question Type of question Method Policy implications Experimenta- What are policy options for Policy analysis tion, before/after Taxes and fees prioritizing shared rides? surveys What are behavioral levers Surveys, for increasing shared ride Basic research experimentation Taxes and fees use? How will real-time knowledge of marginal cost of transportation change travel behavior and location N/A preferences? How might this change with MaaS subscription services? What’s the association Right-of-way and between walking, biking, street design scooters, and people Basic research guidelines throughput? What changes in street utilization (curbside use – Intercept pickup/dropoff, delivery) Basic research surveys/ Curbside are being brought about observation regulations by new mobility and rising e-commerce? What capacity pressures are streets likely to face Quantitative Congestion with new mobility and rising Basic research analysis of policy e-commerce? traffic flow 90 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 03 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE ImplicationS OF IMPACTS nEEDED RESEARCH cITATIONs Question Type of question Method Policy implications How do different modes of travel impact the Transportation potential for overall network Modeling models N/A efficiency? How can cities prioritize modes to achieve city Case studies, Pricing, roadway goals of increased network Best practice interviews, use policy efficiency, accessibility, content analysis safety, and sustainability? What are the regulatory mechanisms that could Content/policy Pricing, roadway help establish mode Policy analysis analysis use policy prioritization? What regulatory mechanisms could be most effective in helping influence individual Basic research Regression Taxes and fees; behavior and market analysis licensing viability of prioritized modes? Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 03 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 91 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 03|Impacts on Transportation FIRST ORDER IMPACTS SECOND ORDER IMPACTS INTEGRATIVE impacts ImplicationS OF IMPACTS Citations AAA. (2017). Your Driving Costs. Retrieved September 24, 2019, from AAA NewsRoom website: https://newsroom.aaa.com/auto/your-driving-costs/ Anderson, J. M., Kalra, N., Stanley, K. D., Sorensen, P., Samaras, C., & Oluwatola, O. A. (2014). Autonomous vehicle technology: A guide for policymakers. Santa Monica, CA: Rand Corporation. Bösch, P. 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Retrieved from https://www.nytimes. com/2017/12/11/business/airports-ride-hailing-services.html Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 03 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 95 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 96 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 04 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 04 | Impacts on Land Use Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 04 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 97 04|Impacts on lAND uSE FIRST ORDER IMPACTS SECOND ORDER IMPACTS INTEGRATIVE impacts ImplicationS OF IMPACTS Introduction Land use patterns in cities are a product areas of regions, and smaller distribution of evolution in planning and zoning facilities located closer to residents. patterns in reaction to economic and Further, the demand for big-box retail is social forces guiding the orientation of changing while the desire for experiential land uses. Our past and current reliance retail is increasing, leading to shifts in on single occupancy automobiles for the types and sizes of commercial land transportation has a strong impact on needed. land use patterns and the amount of land we use for parking and servicing When it comes to land use impacts it automobiles. In Los Angeles and the is important to note that the changes Midwest, there are an estimated three described in this chapter will occur at parking spots for each vehicle (Victoria varying rates in different parts of the Transport Policy Institute, 2018). In the country, and in different parts of individual Midwest, approximately 5 percent of metropolitan regions. Recent examples the all urban land area is parking (Davis, of emerging technologies such as Pijanowski, Robinson, & Kidwell, 2010). electric vehicles (EVs) and transportation Our development patterns are dominated network companies (TNCs), services by reliance on automobiles. Autonomous such as Lyft and Uber, demonstrate vehicles (AVs) could reshape our land that these technologies are deployed use patterns by shifting where we store in cosmopolitan tech hubs such as vehicles (parking lots and curb space), the Bay Area, Los Angeles, and New how we provide energy to vehicles, and York first. Within these metropolitan how much land we use for automobile- areas the technology debuts initially in oriented functions. denser, more urban environments, and in affluent communities. These services Additionally, shifts in retail, e-commerce, then spread throughout the metropolitan and delivery are changing needs region. In the case of AVs, current pilots for industrial and commercial land. and demonstrations are taking place in Historically, we have sought to separate suburban areas because of the wide low industrial land from residential land traffic street network. for health and public safety. The increasing need for warehouse space There are two major forces affecting land for e-commerce signifies shifts in where use: 1) increasing the supply of land from industrial land for warehousing should the reduction of parking and automobile be located. E-commerce warehousing uses; and 2) shifts in the types and includes large fulfilment facilities located locations of industrial and commercial adjacent to Interstates, often in the outer land needed. 98 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 04 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE ImplicationS OF IMPACTS nEEDED RESEARCH cITATIONs FIRST ORDER IMPACTS Change in Parking Demand Change in goods and meal deliverye reduction in brick-and-mortar stores increasing interest in experiential retail sECOND ORDER IMPACTS employment uses residential uses parks and open spaces Integrative impacts transportation urban design Real Estate IMPLICATIONS OF secondary impacts on land use equity health economy environment governance areas of needed research Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 04 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 99 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs Chapter organization 04|Impacts on lAND uSE FIRST ORDER IMPACTS SECOND ORDER IMPACTS INTEGRATIVE impacts ImplicationS OF IMPACTS First Order Impacts Affecting Land Use The growth in new mobility and e-commerce/goods delivery will have key implications for land use. The primary first order impacts that will affect land use are change in parking demand, change in goods delivery and demand for warehousing space, reduction in brick-and-mortar stores, and increasing interest in experiential retail. Change in Parking Demand The change in parking demand due to parking near destinations of interest, TNCs and eventually AVs will drastically a shift to pick up and drop offs could impact zoning and development reduce the need for parking in some regulations. Preliminary studies suggest locations and lead to a concentration that AV parking may reduce the need for of parking for fleet-based vehicles in parking space by an average of 62% and hubs located across the region. These a maximum of 87% (Nourinejad, Bahrami, considerations will affect how we zone & Roorda, 2018). In addition to the total for land use types and incorporate amount of land, AVs may also affect the parking requirements into development location of parking. Rather than situating regulations. Change in Goods and meal Delivery Goods delivery is likely to increase with in the amount and orientation of land the ease of same-day delivery. The used for certain purposes, particularly concurrent rise in e-commerce and warehousing. Smaller distribution centers, deployment of AVs could lead to shifts that provide the goods for the last leg of in the demand for warehousing and the trip, may need to be located closer distribution centers to handle last mile to population and employment centers. delivery. Additionally, brick-and-mortar Those shifts could also change the stores may shift their businesses to a demand for industrial land overall. Shifts delivery model. The shifts in demand in goods delivery could also lead to a for goods that are delivered rather than decline in parking needed for brick-and- picked up at stores may lead to a shift mortar stores. 100 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 04 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE ImplicationS OF IMPACTS nEEDED RESEARCH cITATIONs Source: City of Alexandria https://www.alexandriava.gov/LandmarkVanDorn Reduction in Brick-and-Mortar Stores The expansion of e-commerce has with more than 8,000 stores expected coincided with closures in brick-and- to close in 2019 (Peterson, 2019). mortar stores. In 2017, retailers closed Store closures create vacancies and 102 million square feet of store space, redevelopment opportunities. Cities may followed by 115 million square feet in 2018 need to consider how they zone for retail (Peterson, 2019). The trend is continuing, space. Increasing Interest in Experiential Retail While traditional brick-and-mortar stores unique experience that differentiates are declining, consumers have expressed their spending and they are willing to interest and willingness to pay for pay 31.6% more (on average) for that experiential retail. As described in Chapter experience (Synchrony Finance, 2016). 2, experience-driven retail appeals to The size and orientation of these stores consumers who strongly favor in-store differs from traditional commercial retail. shopping experiences. They prefer a Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 04 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 101 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 04|Impacts on lAND uSE FIRST ORDER IMPACTS SECOND ORDER IMPACTS INTEGRATIVE impacts ImplicationS OF IMPACTS Second Order Impacts on Land Use This section hypothesizes about how the first order impacts may impact land use, considering employment, housing, and parks and open space. The purpose of this section is to consider how the first order impacts described above will impact land use. The secondary impacts are largely speculative in nature and are meant to summarize projected impacts along various dimensions. Employment Uses Distribution of Warehousing Demand for Retail Land v. Experiential Retail As e-commerce grows, the need for warehouses to support it will rise. In Big box stores and brick-and-mortar addition to large fulfillment centers on the retail have been declining as e-commerce outskirts of urban areas, new warehouses has risen (Peterson, 2019; Timmermann, and distribution centers may be located 2018). The amount of land for big box closer to population and employment stores and traditional retail may decline centers to facilitate quick and easy last with shifts to e-commerce. Additionally, mile delivery. To encourage new patterns the rise in e-commerce might correspond of industrial land use, land development with a decline in the need for land zoned regulations around siting, parking, and for big box retail. For brick-and-mortar transportation access to warehouse retail that remains, the demand for and distribution centers may change to experiential retail has been rising. This be oriented for automated delivery. In could lead to an increase in demand for some cases, there may be a second life land zoned for small, experiential retail for smaller industrial properties that no near urban centers. Within retail space, longer serve modern manufacturing or the development regulations around warehousing needs. parking may shift for retail, diminishing the need for minimum parking requirements. 102 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 04 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE ImplicationS OF IMPACTS nEEDED RESEARCH cITATIONs Abandoned Walmart in McAllen, TX gets converted into Public Library. Image source: Alucobond Redevelopment of Malls / Decreased Need for Gas Big Box Retail Stations and Auto-oriented Over the past several years, malls and Land Uses big box retail have been marked by store closures leading to vacancies Autonomous vehicles are likely to be (Peterson, 2019; Timmermann, 2018). electrified. A shift in the type of fuel will Accompanying this trend, large areas reorient the land uses related to gasoline. of parking may become available for Rather than gas stations, AVs will rely on redevelopment around suburban uses. charging stations. Like parking, it is likely However, land use regulations will need that charging and storage infrastructure to be adjusted to allow for redevelopment will be combined into hubs located across of these uses, particularly for the the region. The shift from gasoline as a purposes of warehousing or distribution fuel source may lead to vacancies in gas centers. Redevelopment of traditional stations. This could result in the creation enclosed malls into open air destination of potential brownfield areas in need of shopping districts can be accompanied redevelopment. Cities will need funding to by redevelopment of the parking lots clean up vacant brownfields and potential into residential uses. This will require areas for redevelopment. changes to mixed use zoning, and the development of visionary specific plans. Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 04 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 103 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 04|Impacts on lAND uSE FIRST ORDER IMPACTS SECOND ORDER IMPACTS INTEGRATIVE impacts ImplicationS OF IMPACTS Development codes for parking with residential may change, allowing higher density for residential development. Image source: Sergio Souza. Land for Fleet Storage Fleet storage may be located across the metropolitan area, possibly on cheaper As the demand for parking declines with land at the edge. The design and location the adoption of autonomous vehicles, of vehicle storage will depend on the mix the location of vehicle storage may shift. of privately-owned AVs, and AVs owned Parking may shift to concentrated hubs by ridehailing companies such as Lyft and with electric charging and vehicle storage. Uber. Residential Uses Availability of Parking Land to increase because of the reduction of cost due to no longer providing structured for Redevelopment parking. This could encourage infill housing and improve financial viability The decreased demand for parking may of affordable and market rate housing. free up space for redevelopment in urban Development codes for residential parking areas. This may create new space for with residential may change, allowing residential development on land occupied higher density for residential development. by parking. Further, this may allow density 104 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 04 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE ImplicationS OF IMPACTS nEEDED RESEARCH cITATIONs Parks and Open Space Availability of Parking Land for Redevelopment Like residential development, a decreased demand for parking could free up curbside parking for redevelopment in urban areas. This could create new space for wider sidewalks or linear parks on land occupied by parking. A decreased demand for parking could free up space for redevelopment and creation of new spaces. Image source: Robert Bye for Unsplash. Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 04 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 105 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 04|Impacts on lAND uSE FIRST ORDER IMPACTS SECOND ORDER IMPACTS INTEGRATIVE impacts ImplicationS OF IMPACTS Integrative Impacts This section explores the relationships between the secondary impacts of land use, noted above, to transportation, urban design, and real estate, and the potential integrative impacts. Transportation The allocation of land uses by zone up in the ROW and off street from parking and land development regulations have so that land can be appropriated for other important implications for transportation. uses. The location of pick up and drop The location of warehousing, EV charging, off zones within the public right-of-way or and AV parking have implications for VMT/ on private land will affect transportation VKT. As AVs are adopted, space is freed patterns. Urban Design Urban design is currently centered dimensional aspects of zoning and around parking. When a developer land use, but also reconsidering the begins to develop financial models that orientation of uses. Embedding new will drive the design of the project, the uses like warehouses into land use first consideration is how much parking patterns will require new thinking about is required for the desired land use. The the relationship between residential, decrease in supply of parking requires commercial, and industrial land. not only a reconsideration of the two- 106 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 04 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE ImplicationS OF IMPACTS nEEDED RESEARCH cITATIONs Real Estate Depending on the rate of adoption of AVs, land because of scarcity in the amount of freeing up land from parking could flood land zoned for warehousing. Conversely, the market with vacant land and change the decline of brick-and-mortar stores and land supply and land value. Though the big box retail could lead to an oversupply shift in the amount of parking need is and devaluation of commercial land. Land likely to occur over time rather than all at use regulations can be used to ensure once, the increase in land availability by that supply matches demand for various specific land use types may affect land land use types. For example, cities may values. Further, the increase in demand need to rezone land that was parking to for certain types of land, like warehousing, industrial for warehousing and distribution may cause an increase in prices of that centers. The decrease in supply of parking requires not only a reconsideration of the two-dimensional aspects of zon- ing and land use, but also reconsidering the orientation of uses. Image source: Sergio Souza for Unsplash. Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 04 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 107 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 04|Impacts on lAND uSE FIRST ORDER IMPACTS SECOND ORDER IMPACTS INTEGRATIVE impacts ImplicationS OF IMPACTS Implications of Secondary Impacts on Land Use This section explores what the implications of the secondary impacts on land use could be for equity, health, the economy, the environment, and governance. Equity Change in Parking Demand Reduced Viability of Transit Key questions of equity arise in The current transportation system in determining who benefits and loses the United States reflects disparities in from the new land that opens up from transit access. Shifting demand for land parking. Using this land for affordable and shifting transportation modes could housing could benefit lower income lead to displacement and exacerbate populations. But allowing the market to the lack of accessibility. If transit is no decide the highest and best use could longer available, the accessibility of signal negative consequences for this neighborhoods that are well-served by population. transit could shift, which would affect accessibility to jobs and services. Location of Infrastructure The location of fleet storage and electric infrastructure to have access to EVs and charging infrastructure may pose access AVs. Further, fleet parking areas may challenges or environmental justice choose to locate close to low-income issues for lower income populations. neighborhoods which could negatively Low-income neighborhoods may not impact these neighborhoods. receive an adequate share of charging Health Shift in Fuel Type for parking declines and uses shift to parks and greenways, public health may The orientation of land uses has important improve as access to parks and open implications for public health. Air pollution space increases. However, AV parking/ could decrease as the fuel source for charging hubs and warehousing may pose vehicles shifts to electricity. As the need negative impacts on health. 108 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 04 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE ImplicationS OF IMPACTS nEEDED RESEARCH cITATIONs Economy Large Shifts in Land Values uses of land will also affect the types of employment that occur on that The economic impacts on land use land. Freeing up swaths of land could hinge on the new uses of land. The tax shift property values. The forces that base may grow or shrink depending drive property values may shift as on redevelopment of land, and new transportation access changes. Environment Shift in Fuel Type and create cleaner land uses by moving from EV charging to gas stations. While land may be freed up for redevelopment, The adoption of AVs brings several land the shift from gasoline stations will require use-related environmental benefits and brownfield redevelopment. The location challenges. Shifting from gasoline to an of warehousing and industrial land could electric fleet can reduce CO2 emissions raise environmental justice concerns. Governance Shift in Regulations and Burden on Municipal Budgets Models The effects of shifts in land use carry The land use effects of AVs pose implications for revenue generation as challenges for governance. We base well. Many cities are heavily dependent our comprehensive plans and zoning on property taxes and sales taxes. The regulations on historic trends. Our land closure of big box stores and malls has use models are not yet set up to consider strained municipal budgets because of the shifts in demand for various types of the loss of sales tax revenue. On the other uses (like the increase in industrial) and a hand, shifting from vacant lots for parking decline in the amount of land needed for to more intensive uses could increase parking and public right-of-way. Land use property tax generation. models will need to be revised to examine and plan for these trends. Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 04 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 109 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 04|Impacts on lAND uSE FIRST ORDER IMPACTS SECOND ORDER IMPACTS INTEGRATIVE impacts ImplicationS OF IMPACTS Areas of Needed Research While preliminary data points to trends in the decline in need for parking, local governments need more information to monitor trends and adjust regulatory frameworks to respond to these anticipated trends. One of the largest issues facing local governments is the uncertainty of timing of some of the anticipated impacts. The research questions below reflect the key issues and questions related to land use. General Land Use Question Type of question Method Policy implications What land uses will decrease or disappear? Basic research Parcel data analysis Zoning code What new land uses will be needed? What land uses have reuse Parcel data analysis; Economic potential? Which need Basic research & Prototypes of re-use development to be redeveloped? (e.g., Prototypes of land and parking policy parking) structures What are the characteristics and supply of existing land? Basic research Parcel data analysis N/A (e.g., parking spaces) What can we learn from areas that have seen a large share of land become Basic research Case study analysis N/A available for development over a short period of time? What are the changes in Zoning code; land use in centers and growth corridors based on new Basic research Parcel data analysis management mobility and ecommerce? policy How much land is currently used for parking? What is Intercept surveys; Parking the current utilization rate Basic research parcel data analysis minimums of parking? How will this change with new mobility? 110 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 04 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE ImplicationS OF IMPACTS nEEDED RESEARCH cITATIONs Employment uses Question Type of question Method Policy implications What are the changes Parcel data in land use that occur Basic Research analysis; Zoning code because of e-commerce? interviews Where will new warehouses Parcel data be located? New offices? Basic Research analysis; Zoning code New retail spaces? interviews Housing Question Type of question Method Policy implications How does demand for Buildable lands sprawl shift based on new Basic Research Surveys inventory and mobility? zoning code How does demand for Buildable lands densification/centralization Basic Research Surveys inventory and shift based on new zoning code mobility? Parks and open space Question Type of question Method Policy implications How can parking areas Case studies Case study Zoning code become parks? analysis Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 04 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 111 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 04|Impacts on lAND uSE FIRST ORDER IMPACTS SECOND ORDER IMPACTS INTEGRATIVE impacts ImplicationS OF IMPACTS Citations Davis, A. Y., Pijanowski, B. C., Robinson, K. D., & Kidwell, P. B. (2010). Estimating parking lot footprints in the Upper Great Lakes Region of the USA. Landscape and Urban Planning, 96(2), 68–77. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2010.02.004 Nourinejad, M., Bahrami, S., & Roorda, M. J. (2018). Designing Parking Facilities for Autonomous Vehicles. Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 109, 110–127. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trb.2017.12.017 Peterson, H. (2019, August 14). More than 8,000 stores are closing in 2019 as the retail apocalypse drags on—Here’s the full list. Retrieved August 23, 2019, from Business Insider website: https://www.businessinsider.com/stores-closing-in-2019- list-2019-3 Synchrony Finance. (2016). Brick-and-Mortar Reborn: The Future of Retail in the Era of Urbanization. Retrieved from Synchrony Finance, QUARTZ Creative Service website: https://www.synchrony.com/Synchrony%20Financial%20-%20Brick%20 and%20Mortar%20Reborn%20-%20August%202016.pdf Timmermann, M. (2018). Retail alert: More than 100 malls are losing another specialty retailer. Retrieved from Clark Howard website: https://clark.com/shopping-retail/ major-retailers-closing-2018/ Victoria Transport Policy Institute. (2018, April). Transportation Cost and Benefit Analysis II--Parking cost. Retrieved from www.vtpi.org/tca/tca0504.pdf 112 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 04 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE ImplicationS OF IMPACTS nEEDED RESEARCH cITATIONs Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 04 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 113 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 114 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 05 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 05 | Impacts on Urban Design Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 05 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 115 05|Impacts on Urban Design FIRST ORDER IMPACTS SECOND ORDER IMPACTS INTEGRATIVE impacts ImplicationS OF IMPACTS Introduction AVs and new mobility could have a other hand, this could also contribute to wide range of impacts on urban design, the further densification of certain areas, including an expansion of the metropolitan which would impact urban form and city footprint, changes to street design, a shift centers. in urban center and corridor development, changes in density, and a shift in where The growth of new mobility services and urban activity and vitality occur. e-commerce is already impacting street design as there are increasing demands The continued expansion of metropolitan being placed on limited space. The curb footprints has been an ongoing concern in particular has assumed a new level for city planners and urban designers of importance given all the competing as low-density, sprawled developments demands for the space: parking for are a strain on municipal budgets, vehicles and/or micromobility devices, impact habitat, reduce water quality, and passenger and/or goods loading and reduce social cohesion (Ewing & Hamidi, unloading, transit-only travel lanes, 2015). Despite these concerns, sprawl and many other potential uses. The has remained the dominant form of introduction of AVs will likely exacerbate development for more than six decades, many of these existing issues since it largely limited only by the need a relative is anticipated that they will primarily be amount of proximity to employment, used for pick up and drop off and will shopping, and entertainment centers. spend far less time parked than vehicles AVs and e-commerce seem poised to do currently. Although AVs will likely be substantially change the existing need for programmed in order to work on existing proximity. On the one hand, this could streets, some street design changes may potentially exacerbate sprawl, allowing a be necessary in order to accommodate large expansion of metropolitan footprints the increased need for loading/unloading in cities throughout the country. On the and the decreased need for parking. 116 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 05 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE ImplicationS OF IMPACTS nEEDED RESEARCH cITATIONs FIRST ORDER IMPACTS Change in Parking Demand shifting nature of freight Change in congestion reduction of certain types of brick-and-mortar stores change in ease of travel increasing interest in shift in modes experiential retail competition for the ROW sECOND ORDER IMPACTS metropolitan footprint densification street design place and identity centers and corridors Integrative impacts transportation land use Real Estate IMPLICATIONS of secondary impacts on urban design equity health economy environment governance areas of needed research Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 05 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 117 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs Chapter organization 05|Impacts on Urban Design FIRST ORDER IMPACTS SECOND ORDER IMPACTS INTEGRATIVE impacts ImplicationS OF IMPACTS First Order Impacts Affecting Urban Design The growth in new mobility and of travel, shift in modes, competition for e-commerce/goods delivery will have key the right-of-way, shifting nature of freight, implications for urban design. The primary changes in demand for warehousing first order impacts that will affect urban space, reduction of certain types of brick- design are change in parking demand, and-mortar stores, and increasing interest change in congestion, change in ease in experiential retail. Change in Parking Demand The demand for parking is predicted former parking lots and structures could to drop as much as 90% as TNCs and be repurposed with usable programed AVs reduce the need to store cars at space. This could also improve the vitality destinations (Zhang, Guhathakurta, of areas as increased density leads to Fang, & Zhang, 2015). Parking has increased activity and a reduction of become a primary determinant of urban parking lots erases gaps in the urban development, so a change in parking fabric that often diminish the vibrancy demand will have dramatic effects on of an area. Conversely, if everyone is urban design. If AVs and new mobility dropped off directly in front of their models lead to a reduced need for on- destination, the number of people walking street parking, streets could see an to and from parked cars would be increase in available right-of-way. The reduced, eliminating some of the activity reduction in parking needs could also seen on streets and placing additional create opportunities to increase the burden on the curb. density of urban and suburban areas as Change in Congestion TNCs are already contributing to right-of-way (ROW). Based on present increased congestion in urban areas conditions, some will likely advocate for (Schaller, 2018) and AVs are predicted using the newly available ROW to increase to exacerbate the problem. The increase vehicle travel lanes while others will argue in congestion could put pressure on for more dedicated ROW for transit, street design to facilitate increased travel pedestrians, and cyclists. High degrees speeds. In mitigating for this congestion, of congestion in urban areas may improve streets will continue to be a battleground the comparative advantage of non-auto of competing strategies, especially as modes as a way to more efficiently use on-street parking needs are potentially the ROW. reduced, freeing up usable space in the 118 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 05 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE ImplicationS OF IMPACTS nEEDED RESEARCH cITATIONs Change in Ease of Travel AVs are projected to increase travel employment. All of this may result in AVs speeds to and from the periphery, raise allowing travelers to more easily reach the acceptability of increased commute further into the periphery and could have times as drivers become riders who can a dramatic impact on the extent of sprawl make better use of their travel time, and and the expanse of the metropolitan reduce the need of labor’s proximity to footprint. Shift in Modes An increase in AV auto use coupled with viability of transit-oriented development. a reduction in transit, walking, and cycling Shifting from transit, walking, and biking trips could have substantial impacts to AVs (ostensibly a mobile, enclosed, on urban design as it might increase private space) could also reduce the the demand for additional vehicle travel vitality these more active modes add to space. Additionally, a reduction in transit street life. use could reduce the vibrancy and TNCs are already contributing to increased congestion in urban areas and AVs are predicted to exacerbate the problem. Image source: Ray Bay for Unsplash. Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 05 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 119 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 05|Impacts on Urban Design FIRST ORDER IMPACTS SECOND ORDER IMPACTS INTEGRATIVE impacts ImplicationS OF IMPACTS Competition for the Right-of-Way Increased competition for the ROW the efficiency of ROW use, particularly in impacts street design and particularly the regards to curbside access (Fehr & Peers, amount of space that is allocated to each 2018). In addressing the need to prioritize, mode. It could also impact the priority and recognizing that not all streets are the given to each mode along the street and same, the input of all street users and city could exacerbate current areas of mode stakeholders needs to be included so that conflict. These types of concerns are modality prioritization reflects the needs already leading to calls for defining mode of particular neighborhoods or locations. prioritization for streets and increasing Shifting Nature of Freight One of the criteria that keeps cities As warehouses are often uninviting relatively compact is the burden of spaces that reduce an area’s vitality, travel time to get to goods and services. an increase in warehouse space could Both suppliers and consumers prefer reduce the vibrancy of urban areas, shorter travel times to acquire goods particularly if there is a trend towards and services. A combination of AVs and locating warehouses near dense areas e-commerce could reduce the importance of housing and commerce to reduce of this preference for consumers as the distribution time. Warehousing space delivery of goods masks consumer’s could also expand to auto-oriented sites perception of the burden of travel. Unless such as gas stations which could be the cost of delivery is differentiated by adapted to neighborhood distribution fairly specific geographies (urban, inner sites as they become obsolete due to suburban, outer suburban, exurban, etc.), the gradual replacement of the internal proximity to places to shop might lessen combustion engine fleet by electric power. its impact on residential preferences. 120 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 05 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE ImplicationS OF IMPACTS nEEDED RESEARCH cITATIONs Reduction of Certain Types of Brick- and-Mortar Stores As a larger share of retail shifts to could impact the vitality of urban areas e-commerce, the number of stores could with less people on the street and less diminish and locations that are marginal storefronts that help generate street-level today could no longer be viable. This activity. Increasing Interest in Experiential Retail With the current trend in retail of important. Urban design helps define expanded interest in the experiential the identity and vitality of an area and aspect of shopping (as opposed to a sole can become a critical draw as quality of focus on the object to be purchased), experience becomes more central. the design of urban areas becomes more Increased competition for the ROW impacts street design and particularly the amount of space that is allocated to each mode. Image source: sfbike.org Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 05 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 121 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 05|Impacts on Urban Design FIRST ORDER IMPACTS SECOND ORDER IMPACTS INTEGRATIVE impacts ImplicationS OF IMPACTS Secondary order Impacts on Urban Design This section hypothesizes about how the first order impacts may impact urban design, considering metropolitan footprint, street design, centers and corridors, densification, and place and identity. The purpose of this section is to consider how the first order impacts described above will impact urban design. The secondary impacts are largely speculative in nature and are meant to summarize projected impacts along various dimensions. Metropolitan Footprint Expansion of Metropolitan Depopulation of Middle-Ring Footprint Suburbs Based on the causes described above, As the friction of transportation is residents and businesses may no longer reduced, businesses and residents could feel the constraint of proximity as a critical migrate to areas that provide desired aspect of their location preferences and mixes of amenities and costs. Middle- may gravitate to less expensive, less ring suburbs might be the most impacted regulated, sparser, and more open/natural in this scenario as these areas generally properties at the furthest periphery of lack the amenities of higher density cities (Milakis, Kroesen, & van Wee, 2018). central cities, but at the same time lack The increased ease of transportation the periphery’s availability of large areas could lead to residential and employment of undeveloped land, reduced existing location preferences further from city regulations, and access to natural areas centers, especially for families with and open space. children (Zhang & Guhathakurta, 2018), and for construction and manufacturing uses (Zhang & Guhathakurta, 2016). 122 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 05 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE ImplicationS OF IMPACTS nEEDED RESEARCH cITATIONs Uneven Impacts on Land Uses Satellite Small Towns and Communities The expansion of the metropolitan Large metropolitan areas are typically footprint may not affect all land uses surrounded by a series of smaller towns equally. Housing locations may potentially and rural communities that are reliant on see dramatic shifts as the desire for the central city’s economic power, but are larger, less expensive areas proximate sufficiently distant to feel little impact from to nature draw individuals and families urban development. If sprawl accelerates, further into the periphery. Another land these areas will be surrounded by new use potentially most impacted will be large development, accelerating and expanding lot employment uses. Campuses and familiar patterns of growth seen in large industrial areas that have difficulty existing sprawl development. Currently, finding suitable and available large lots these types of communities are either within current metropolitan regions largely subsumed by new development could be drawn further out where larger or become semi-urban centers in a properties are easier to acquire or amass. poly-centric model of metropolitan However, this needs to be set against the development, acting as nodes or anchors understanding that knowledge-worker in new residential and commercial growth. based employers seem to be gravitating A combination of lower cost of housing towards denser urban environments and a semi-urban (re)development of preferred by their workforce. Finally, land their existing town centers could become uses that are considered nuisances or draws for the growth of these poly-centric hazards, such as industrial sites, landfills, hubs. and airports, may also be drawn further into the periphery to areas that have less opposition from neighbors and fewer Increased Need for High logistical constraints. Capacity Transportation Corridors If sprawl increases, there will be continued pressure to create ever larger capacity transportation corridors that can connect the inner city to the expanded periphery. If these corridors are serving low-density areas that are difficult to serve via transit, it is most probable that they will be largely auto-dominated. These corridors will not only impact the nature of the peripheral communities they travel through, but also areas of central cities they traverse as well. Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 05 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 123 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 05|Impacts on Urban Design FIRST ORDER IMPACTS SECOND ORDER IMPACTS INTEGRATIVE impacts ImplicationS OF IMPACTS Street Design Competition for Curbside Increasing Demand for Access Dedicated Micromobility As TNC and AV TNC activity increases, Street Infrastructure curbside access will become a major area of conflict in high-volume, high-access Demand for new dedicated micromobility streets. Street design will need to allow infrastructure could grow as the use increased access while mitigating or of these modes increases and safety avoiding potential mode conflicts such concerns become more prominent. This as cars blocking curbside bike paths is already starting to occur with the or curbside transit lanes. This trend expansion of bikeshare and scooter-share already exists in a growing number of and the safety concerns due to the lack of streets in large cities with high TNC and suitable infrastructure for these modes. e-commerce presence. Impacts on Driving Lanes Less Parking Could Mean More Available ROW Space If, as predicted, AVs have better vehicle control than humans, then widths of Demand for on-street parking could driving lanes may be reduced for AVs as subside, potentially reducing the total less space is required to operate safely. In amount of space needed for on-street addition, some streets may see increased parking. The re-allocation of this space capacity per lane as AVs are more will likely become an important issue for efficient in their movements and increase cities to contend with. Some are currently throughput of vehicles. This will vary by arguing that priority should be given to condition with the largest increases in strategies that increase capacity. For capacity potentially seen in low-conflict instance, Fehr & Peers recently conducted roadways such as freeways and highways. a study with Uber which analyzed the All of this could lead to an overall “curb productivity index”—a measure of reduction in travel lanes required. But, the number of people served by a specific this may be thwarted by the projected length of curb, using a particular mode increased trips and congestion brought (parking, drop-off, transit stop) over a about by AVs (Schaller, 2018), leading to set time period. This study showed that pressures to increase the number of travel parking was the most inefficient use of lanes. curbside space when considering the number of people served per linear foot of designated curb space for TNC pick- up and drop-off, transit stops, and goods delivery (Fehr & Peers, 2018, 2019). 124 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 05 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE ImplicationS OF IMPACTS nEEDED RESEARCH cITATIONs ROW Space Designation Based Potential Mode Conflicts on Speed With the increasing number of modes Mode interaction will become increasingly on streets (AV automobiles, AV transit, more complex as new modes (e-bikes, low-speed AV shuttles, an increase in scooters, etc.) share the right-of-way with bicycles, and scooters) and the unknown AVs and there is an increase in the need new modes that may be introduced, to access the curb with the rise of TNCs, designation of space within the ROW may microtransit, and goods delivery. These need to shift from being based on modes conflicts could lead to innovative solutions and motorization to being based on speed of ROW design, or they could lead to a and access needs. Slower lanes might defensive position of attempting to further include bikes, scooters, and low-speed separate modes and limit any shared AV shuttles, while the faster lanes might access. include AV automobiles and AV transit. Variable Impacts Depending on Street Type and Activity Street design impacts will vary depending on urban form, density, street volume, and amount of local access on street. Low-volume, low-access, suburban streets may see little to no impacts, while high-volume, high-access, urban streets in dense areas will likely see the largest impacts. Image source: Zach Inglis for Unsplash. Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 05 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 125 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 05|Impacts on Urban Design FIRST ORDER IMPACTS SECOND ORDER IMPACTS INTEGRATIVE impacts ImplicationS OF IMPACTS Centers and Corridors Increased Growth of Select Transit ‘Corridor’ Oriented Urban and Suburban Centers Development While some centers may grow due to If current trends continue and transit use impacts of AVs, others may shrink or continues to decline, in part due to being disappear due to a reduction in brick- supplanted by AV TNCs and microtransit, and-mortar retail because of the rise in the idea of transit-oriented development e-commerce and the potentially reduced might shift. AVs and microtransit may role of transit. pick-up and drop-off passengers at their specific destinations, the way Uber Reduced parking needs allow for the and Lyft currently function, and/or they development of existing parking lots and may pick up and drop off at designated the redevelopment of existing garages. locations, such as how UberPOOL and As parking is often a key factor limiting Lyft Line operate. Both of these options the amount of development possible could atomize the location of pick-ups on a lot, reduced parking needs could and drop-offs compared to transit, also essentially increase the amount of potentially reducing the activity of any development that can happen on any one transit node and replacing it with a single property, depending on local more evened out level of activity focused zoning regulations. In desirable urban at or near a corridor. This could reduce centers that have significant development the nodal model of transit-oriented pressure, this could lead to increased development (development around a development. transit stop) and transform that into transit corridor-oriented development. Cities do In suburban areas, which often have large have the power to shape how and if this expanses of parking, the impact could be shift occurs by implementing policies that even larger as strip malls and office parks incentivize or solely allow pick-ups and find themselves with ample amounts drop-offs along specific corridors or at of land available for redevelopment. nodes along those corridors. This could lead to a consolidation of suburban centers, the mixing of uses, especially commercial and residential uses, and potentially the growth of bike and pedestrian travel in these areas if infill development reduces travel distances and the dominance of the automobile. 126 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 05 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE ImplicationS OF IMPACTS nEEDED RESEARCH cITATIONs Densification Reduced Overall Density in Increased Density in Specific Metropolitan Area Urban and Suburban Areas If metropolitan growth is spread over an Density could increase in desirable expanded developable area, average urban and suburban areas if more land densities could diminish. At the same is made available for development due time, if AVs enable an expansion of to diminished parking needs and the the metropolitan footprint, the overall reduction in need for auto-oriented land supply could increase, potentially services (e.g., gas stations, mechanic reducing land values. This reduction in shops, parts stores). While this may land values could reduce the economic have limited impacts on single-family incentives for density. This could impact neighborhoods where converting home both employment and residential uses. garages to new units or uses may be less Industrial uses that need large areas of efficient, this could have a substantial land, are hazardous, or create nuisances impact on development types such as could move even further away from city multifamily housing, commercial centers centers. and events venues, as they include large expanses of parking. If TNCs become a dominant form in transportation, they could become a new political force interested in promoting density. The TNC model is most efficient in areas with dense development as origins and destinations are closer together and, because of the proximity, areas are easier to serve with fewer vehicles. This could impact urban and suburban areas with the potential to create semi-urban nodes within current suburban development. Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 05 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 127 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 05|Impacts on Urban Design FIRST ORDER IMPACTS SECOND ORDER IMPACTS INTEGRATIVE impacts ImplicationS OF IMPACTS Dying Areas in Cities While a few desirable centers may flourish Additionally, because of the increased because of the increased development ease of travel, particularly in commuting, potential of reduced parking, others may areas that offer fewer amenities may see a wither due to the reduction of brick-and- reduction in overall development interest, mortar retail and the atomizing of transit. investment, and activity. For instance, the Some areas within cities could see a inner ring suburbs may suffer most as reduction in activity and development they are too far out to offer the amenities pressure if AVs change the ease of found within the urban core, and may be access. If AVs become a dominant characterized by unremarkable housing means of transport and cities do not take and urban design quality, but are too steps to shape their deployment, areas close in to offer the newness and access that are underserved due to urban form to open space found in outer suburbs. complications, security concerns, or profitability reasons may see diminished growth. If AVs become a dominant means of transport and cities do not take steps to shape their deployment, areas that are underserved due to urban form complications, security concerns, or profitability reasons may see diminished growth. Image source: Khachik Simonian for Unsplash. 128 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 05 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE ImplicationS OF IMPACTS nEEDED RESEARCH cITATIONs Place and Identity Place and Identity as a Draw Factors Impacting Street Activity and Vitality If AVs truly increase the ease of travel and increase the accessibility of most urban If AVs become a dominant mode of travel, areas, the importance that proximity more vehicle entry and exits may be plays in guiding our decisions of where to occurring on-street due to pick-up and spend time may be diminished. While we drop-off activity instead of within parking may currently visit a specific destination lots or garages. This exchange happening because it is convenient, an increase within the public realm might enhance in the ease of traveling would make the level of activity and vitality of certain competing locations further away similarly streets, particularly during commute easy to access, potentially reducing times. the importance of how close we are to them. This may increase other factors Conversely, AVs might reduce the level in deciding which stores or restaurants, of street activity and vitality. The activity for instance, to visit. Factors such as the generated by people parking in a lot quality of place, quality of experience, or garage and then walking down a quality of goods, and the price of goods few blocks to arrive at their destination may take a more central role. This may may diminish if people are increasingly cause a “quality sort” where areas that dropped off directly in front of their have higher quality design, a more distinct destination. identity, and/or sense of placemaking might outperform areas that are more generic or of poor-quality design and experience, thereby creating a larger catchment area for these developments. Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 05 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 129 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 05|Impacts on Urban Design FIRST ORDER IMPACTS SECOND ORDER IMPACTS INTEGRATIVE impacts ImplicationS OF IMPACTS Integrative Impacts This section explores the relationships land use, and real estate, and the between the secondary impacts of urban potential integrative impacts. design, noted above, to transportation, Transportation Changes in density and urban form will ease of pick-up and drop-off for AVs may impact various aspects of transportation. shape how these modes are used, much Increased density would increase the like parking availability shapes automobile trip generation rates of an area. Various use today. New land uses such as AV factors related to urban design such as TNC fleet parking locations and the trips street design, density of development, and potential congestion they generate metropolitan footprint, and the building could impact the urban design of the street interaction will all impact mode area. choice and the viability of transit. The Land Use The change in metropolitan footprint, potential for densification and increased centers and corridors, and density will activity along corridors and in centers impact land use as they change urban may be a draw for certain land uses. This form. The increased ease of travel would could change the location, and potentially not only change the overall size of the the density, of housing, commercial and city, but where certain land uses are manufacturing uses throughout the city. located. Proximity between the labor force and employment might not be as An equally large impact to land use could important as it is today. Additionally, come from a reduced need for parking. land uses that are noxious or require This would free up large areas of land that large tracts of land may now have the could be redeveloped. What land uses fill opportunity to move even further away these voids will have a large impact on from the city. At the same time, the urban design. 130 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 05 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE ImplicationS OF IMPACTS nEEDED RESEARCH cITATIONs Real Estate Changes in density, the importance of Access to curb space and curbside centers and corridors, and the expanse of management could play a similar role as the metropolitan footprint could translate parking does today, limiting or increasing into changes in land values. Desirable property value as it limits or increases nodes, both in urban and suburban areas, accessibility. Because of this, street could increase in value, while a general design, and particularly curbside access decrease in density due to the expanded design, might have an overall effect on metropolitan footprint could reduce overall property values. land values. Expanded catchment areas and the heightened role of place and identity could also impact land values. The change in metropolitan footprint, centers and corridors, and density will impact land use as they change urban form. The increased ease of travel would not only change the overall size of the city, but where certain land uses are located. Image source: Olivia Hutcherson for Unsplash. Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 05 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 131 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 05|Impacts on Urban Design FIRST ORDER IMPACTS SECOND ORDER IMPACTS INTEGRATIVE impacts ImplicationS OF IMPACTS Implications of Secondary Impacts on Urban Design This section explores what the implications of the secondary impacts on urban design could be for equity, health, the economy, the environment, and governance. Equity Reduced Viability of Transit Increased Economic Segregation The expansion of the metropolitan footprint is tied to an increase in low- An increase in the metropolitan footprint density development around central cities. could exacerbate geographic economic This type of development has historically segregation. Economically impoverished been difficult to serve with transit, communities could continue to be pushed both reducing accessibility options for to the least desirable— and also often residents and also creating pressure for the least accessible—areas. The current accommodating single- and low-occupant pattern of economic segregation seen in vehicles in central cities. This reduction in suburbs could be greatly increased in this the viability of transit can create inequities scenario. as low-income populations feel the largest impacts to accessibility. Conversely, urban design that facilitates some type of TNC and AV use might help solve the first- and last-mile problem and could increase the viability of transit. This will depend largely on the priorities and controls municipalities put in place. 132 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 05 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE ImplicationS OF IMPACTS nEEDED RESEARCH cITATIONs Health Active Travel and Health Street Design and Safety Outcomes New mobility and AVs could create more Urban design has a large influence on conflict points and mode interactions as an individual’s level of activity. While new an increasing number of vehicles (TNCs, mobility and AVs could increase mobility AVs, microtransit) all attempt to access for many people, they may do so at the curb, crossing transit, bike and/or the expense of active modes of travel, micromobility lanes. which could have detrimental impacts on health outcomes. It is important to better understand the health impacts of urban design that prioritize TNCs, for instance, at the expense of other, more active modes. If health is a primary concern, street redesign should focus on incorporating a safer and more attractive environment that encourages active mobility, including walking and biking. Economy An increase in metropolitan footprints and an expansion of sprawl will require a continued increase in the construction and maintenance of infrastructure in low-density areas. Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 05 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 133 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 05|Impacts on Urban Design FIRST ORDER IMPACTS SECOND ORDER IMPACTS INTEGRATIVE impacts ImplicationS OF IMPACTS Large Shifts in Land Values Increased Cost of Infrastructure Similar to what happened with the rise of An increase in metropolitan footprints suburbia in the last century, an increase and an expansion of sprawl will require in the ease of travel could lead to an a continued increase in the construction increase in demand for land outside and maintenance of infrastructure in low- of city centers. This might lead to a density areas. This type of construction decrease in urban land values and an and maintenance is already a burden increase in value of properties previously on suburban municipalities and could considered too far from centers to be eventually become an unsustainable developable. Dense and desirable areas, economic burden. especially in centers and corridors, could see significant increases in land value if parking is no longer a limitation to growth and densities can increase further. This will not only affect the economics of specific properties, but depending on how taxes and jurisdictions are organized, could create large economic windfalls and/or hazards in the economic vitality for entire municipalities and metropolitan regions. Environment Increased Energy Habitat Destruction Consumption Low-density development and sprawl Expanded metropolitan footprints consume habitat and extend the impacts and low-density development require of urban development into natural areas. increased amounts of energy used for Water and air quality are often negatively transportation (Newman & Kenworthy, affected by the increases in impervious 1989). While there is the potential that surfaces and pollution often seen with AVs may also usher in a shift to electrified low-density development. fleets, low-density development requires increased energy use when compared to compact and dense development (Rode, Keim, Robazza, Viejo, & Schofield, 2014). 134 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 05 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE ImplicationS OF IMPACTS nEEDED RESEARCH cITATIONs Agricultural and Natural New Open Spaces and Habitat Resource Land Consumption Expanded metropolitan footprints often Changes in land use and urban design, consume valuable agricultural land with particularly in the reduction in the need high-grade soils and water access. This for parking, may potentially leave large development also consumes land with areas of property open to redevelopment. natural mineral, forest, and environmental How this is done— potentially as parks resources, eliminating the economic and and open space, new habitat, habitat environmental benefits of these areas. connections, and increases in permeable surfaces —could have significant impacts in the overall environmental health of a region. Governance Burden on Municipal Budgets Land Banking Low-density development tends to be As parking wanes in importance, parking burdensome for cities as they require lots and garages might become key areas more infrastructure per capita and are for municipal land banking. costlier and more difficult to serve with fire, police, educational, and social services. Cross-Agency Coordination Mitigating Land Value Impacts of urban design will be wide-ranging, so coordination across Changes departments and agencies will be critical to ensure disruptions and negative Cities need to understand the potential repercussions are minimized while change changes in land value based on urban is leveraged to reach community goals. design impacts so they can buffer declines and have means to capture some of increased value created. Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 05 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 135 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 05|Impacts on Urban Design FIRST ORDER IMPACTS SECOND ORDER IMPACTS INTEGRATIVE impacts ImplicationS OF IMPACTS Areas of Needed Research Street design Question Type of question Method Policy implications How might street design changes (especially regarding curbside access, location Urban design of access points and length Prototyping Design guidelines and of curbside allocated to prototyping street design any given mode) best guidelines accommodate new curbside access needs? What curb management Policy analysis Content analysis Street design policies maximize equity? guidelines Analysis of on- What areas are most efficient street, off-street, Curb for pick up and drop off? Modeling shared, by management parcel, urban v. policy suburban Intercept Curb What is the demand for curb Modeling and data surveys, management space? analysis observation, policy counts How will lane width Design Street design requirements change with Prototyping Prototyping guidelines AVs? How can street design changes best accommodate Design Street design new modes and increased Prototyping Prototyping guidelines need for capacity/curbside access? 136 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 05 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE ImplicationS OF IMPACTS nEEDED RESEARCH cITATIONs Question Type of question Method Policy implications How would organizing streets by speeds affect network Experiential Street design efficiency, safety, and user Basic research surveys guidelines comfort? How might street use (capacity/access needs) Intercept Curb change over time of day? Basic research surveys, management (Consider e-commerce observation, policy; flex lane deliveries, flexibility of lanes/ counts policy modes, etc.). How does street design impact the use (execution, Intercept ease of use, and individual’s Basic research Surveys/ Street design preference/acceptance) Experiential guidelines of different modes in new Surveys mobility? What specific street design Street design changes would be most Transportation guidelines; curb necessary/ effective in Modeling modeling management improving curbside access/ policy overall network efficiency? What are potential disruptions in network efficiency, safety, Scenario Street design and access during the Modeling modeling guidelines transition from legacy to automated vehicles? What types of street configurations, intersections, and street conditions are Basic research Experiments Traffic laws most difficult for AVs to navigate/manage? How can cities prioritize Street design needed new mobility guidelines infrastructure changes to Policy analysis Policy analysis and capital streets to meet community improvement goals? programming Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 05 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 137 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 05|Impacts on Urban Design FIRST ORDER IMPACTS SECOND ORDER IMPACTS INTEGRATIVE impacts ImplicationS OF IMPACTS centers and corridors Question Type of question Method Policy implications What are possible typologies of land use and development along new Prototypes Design analysis N/A mobility Transit Oriented Corridors (TOCs)? General Urban Design Question Type of question Method Policy implications How does new mobility affect the use of suburban Basic Research Design analysis Zoning code commercial retail? How can big box retail be retrofitted to become Prototypes Design analysis Zoning code distribution centers? 138 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 05 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE ImplicationS OF IMPACTS nEEDED RESEARCH cITATIONs Place/Identy Question Type of question Method Policy implications How might e-commerce and new mobility affect the number of users, vitality, Basic research Surveys Zoning Code and sense of place of different areas? Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 05 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 139 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 05|Impacts on Urban Design FIRST ORDER IMPACTS SECOND ORDER IMPACTS INTEGRATIVE impacts ImplicationS OF IMPACTS Citations Ewing, R., & Hamidi, S. (2015). Compactness versus Sprawl: A Review of Recent Evidence from the United States. Journal of Planning Literature, 30(4), 413–432. https://doi.org/10.1177/0885412215595439 Fehr & Peers. (2018). San Francisco Curb Study (pp. 1–70). Retrieved from www. fehrandpeers.com/sf-curb-study/ Fehr & Peers. (2019). Cincinnati Curb Study (pp. 1–70). Retrieved from CIty of Cincinnati, Uber Technologies website: www.fehrandpeers.com/sf-curb-study/ Milakis, D., Kroesen, M., & van Wee, B. (2018). Implications of automated vehicles for accessibility and location choices: Evidence from an expert-based experiment. Journal of Transport Geography, 68, 142–148. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. jtrangeo.2018.03.010 Newman, P. W. G., & Kenworthy, J. R. (1989). Gasoline Consumption and Cities. Journal of the American Planning Association, 55(1), 24–37. https://doi. org/10.1080/01944368908975398 Rode, P., Keim, C., Robazza, G., Viejo, P., & Schofield, J. (2014). Cities and Energy: Urban Morphology and Residential Heat-Energy Demand. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 41(1), 138–162. https://doi.org/10.1068/b39065 Schaller, B. (2018). The new automobility: Lyft, Uber and the future of American cities. Retrieved from http://www.schallerconsult.com/rideservices/automobility.htm Zhang, W., & Guhathakurta, S. (2016, November). Residential Location Choice for Workers in the Era of Shared Autonomous Vehicles. Presented at the Association of Collegiate Schools of Planning Conference, Portland, OR. Zhang, W., & Guhathakurta, S. (2018). Residential Location Choice in the Era of Shared Autonomous Vehicles. Journal of Planning Education and Research, 0739456X18776062. https://doi.org/10.1177/0739456X18776062 Zhang, W., Guhathakurta, S., Fang, J., & Zhang, G. (2015). Exploring the impact of shared autonomous vehicles on urban parking demand: An agent-based simulation approach. Sustainable Cities and Society, 19, 34–45. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. scs.2015.07.006 140 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 05 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE ImplicationS OF IMPACTS nEEDED RESEARCH cITATIONs Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 05 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 141 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 142 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 06 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 06 | Impacts on Real Estate Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 06 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 143 06|Impacts on Real Estate FIRST ORDER IMPACTS SECOND ORDER IMPACTS INTEGRATIVE impacts ImplicationS OF IMPACTS Introduction Owners and developers of real uses, open space, proximity of homes to estate are sensitive to changes in work, and regulating what is built where. mobility technologies and patterns Urban design involves the features of of consumption, particularly because a city between the buildings, such as consumers of real estate are sensitive to streets, intensity of development, and these changes. Shifts in parking, travel, neighborhood characteristics. and movement of people and goods require reimagining the ways buildings are The impact of AVs on real estate will occupied and designed. Changes brought involve changes to buildings and sites, about by AVs will inform how buildings particularly tenant composition and and sites are valued by tenants, investors, accessibility, and how that influences the and developers. relative value of land uses. In a future with widespread AV adoption, successful Though interrelated, the influence of real estate projects will feature building AVs on the real estate sector can be owners, tenants, and services that are distinguished from the impacts on land responsive to people and goods traveling use and urban design. Land use concerns in AVs. the value of location, changes in land 144 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 06 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE ImplicationS OF IMPACTS nEEDED RESEARCH cITATIONs FIRST ORDER IMPACTS Change in Parking Demand change in goods and meal delivery Change in vmt Shifting nature of freight and ease of travel change in congestion and replacement of certain types of competition for the row brick-and-mortar stores by experiential retail shift in modes sECOND ORDER IMPACTS Real estate economics buzz/vitality land value quality project feasibility Integrative impacts transportation land use urban design IMPLICATIONS OF secondary impacts on real estate equity health economy environment governance areas of needed research Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 06 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 145 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs Chapter organization 06|Impacts on Real Estate FIRST ORDER IMPACTS SECOND ORDER IMPACTS INTEGRATIVE impacts ImplicationS OF IMPACTS First Order Impacts Affecting Real Estate The growth in new mobility and e-commerce/goods delivery will have key implications for real estate. The primary first order impacts that will affect real estate are change in parking demand, change in vehicle miles/kilometers traveled, change in congestion, change in ease of travel, shift in modes, competition for the right-of-way, change in goods and meal delivery, changes in demand for warehousing space, reduction of certain types of brick and mortar stores, and increasing interest in experiential retail. Change in Parking Demand The proliferation of on-demand from units; Manville, 2016). The cost of autonomous ridehailing services could providing parking stalls on site can be potentially lead to a large decrease in as much or more than providing similar- car ownership, which is likely to reduce sized leasable space, so eliminating these the demand for parking spaces. Already parking-related costs can make many the demand for parking appears to be more projects feasible (Shoup, 2011). decreasing in certain areas, such as airports, dense downtowns, and areas In addition, reduction in demand for with concentrated nightlife, as people existing parking capacity will create increasingly choose to use ridehailing opportunities to modify existing services like Uber or Lyft for those trips properties. While parking facilities could to/from those locales (Morris, 2018; be occupied by expanding existing Steele, 2018; Zipkin, 2017). Parking is a uses, such as building an office building major constraint in developing properties wing where surface parking existed or because people desire easy access converting a garage into a room in a to their cars and often possess a very house, parking facilities may also need low willingness to pay for parking. For to be repurposed to accommodate instance, a researcher that examined various ways in which AVs will change the results of the American Housing transportation. Parking facilities, for Survey found that households with instance, may be repurposed into new bundled parking (i.e., parking spaces are “access points,” or “mobility hubs,” not rented separately from units) were created for delivering goods and dropping 60-80% less likely to be car-free than off and picking up passengers, though household with unbundled parking (i.e., existing design may make this difficult or parking spaces are rented separately unfeasible. 146 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 06 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE ImplicationS OF IMPACTS nEEDED RESEARCH cITATIONs Change in Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) and Ease of Travel AVs will likely enable people to travel in the travel experience may mean farther, longer, and more frequently. that people are less sensitive to travel Commuting to work and traveling for distance and more selective about their leisure may be less costly, both perceived destination. Such changes could lead to and real cost (Litman, 2019)driverless or greater agglomeration and more intense robotic, since the travel time can be used development, including larger buildings more productively for work or leisure where the increased demand makes such (Anderson et al., 2016). Increased comfort development feasible. Change in Congestion and Competition for the Right-of-Way The introduction of TNCs into major cities To mitigate congestion, drop-off and is already increasing congestion because pick-up facilities may be accommodated they compete with private vehicles, outside of the right-of-way, near the transit, bicycles, and pedestrians for the ground level of buildings. Increased right-of-way (Schaller, 2018). Similarly, AVs congestion could drive away firms are likely to increase congestion in urban because the benefits of agglomeration, and downtown areas as long as they such as higher productivity and better remain unintegrated with other modes job-skill match, become limited as of transportation. Moreover, induced congestion increases. At the same demand for the movement of people time, property values appreciate with and goods will likely further increase walkability (Leinberger & Rodriguez, 2016; congestion. Cities may also become more Yates & Miller, 2011). Therefore, while AVs congested if AVs open up travel options may conveniently connect people from for those populations that currently do not one place to another, the inconvenience drive, such as those who are physically of congestion could fuel the development unable to drive. of more walkable areas within short distances. Shift in Modes The impact of AVs on real estate developed areas, even within urban cities. development will depend on the changing Even so, change to the built environment nature of travel. If AVs are substitutes could happen slowly and incrementally for transit, people could work and live as developers figure out ways to modify farther away from transit stops, leading existing buildings to accommodate a new to new construction in more remote, less prioritization of travel modes. Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 06 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 147 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 06|Impacts on Real Estate FIRST ORDER IMPACTS SECOND ORDER IMPACTS INTEGRATIVE impacts ImplicationS OF IMPACTS Change in Goods and Meal Delivery E-commerce and the sharing economy concerns related to deliveries. Already are facilitating the growth of on-demand some developers and residential building delivery services. Today, goods and meals managers are adding and/or expanding can be ordered online and delivered package areas to manage the increase quickly. AVs could further decrease in deliveries and incorporating package the cost and increase the frequency of concierge service stations (Kaufman, delivery services, thus increasing the 2015; Zimmer, 2016). While the number traffic flow in and out of buildings. Real of food vendors or goods providers may estate developers may need to dedicate fall due to consolidation, there could be a portion of the property for new forms a greater demand for shared spaces to of delivery stations and building services consume delivered food or storage space that address logistics and security for easy-to-procure goods. Shifting nature of freight Integration of AVs into e-commerce and Also, goods may originate from fewer on-demand delivery services will require large warehouses that are accessible the rethinking of supply chains and to many metro areas. Warehouses are distribution nodes. Fulfillment centers will strategically dispersed to minimize have to be designed or redesigned to shipping costs and to fulfill orders under work seamlessly with AVs, accelerating the trucking industry’s hours of service current shifts to locate fulfillment centers regulations. But, AVs may drastically closer to final destinations to reduce reduce shipping costs and AVs will likely delivery time (Simpson, 2018). Because be able to travel farther distances over AVs will be able to operate without longer hours. Therefore, the proximity of drivers, they may be in more continuous warehouses to fulfillment centers may operation than vehicles today. Moreover, become less important. residential and commercial areas could see fulfillment centers taking up tiny parcels of land in order to locate goods extremely close to consumers. Tenant composition in mixed-use areas could become even more varied, including more logistics functions, should zoning regulations allow it. 148 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 06 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE ImplicationS OF IMPACTS nEEDED RESEARCH cITATIONs Replacement of Certain Types of Brick- and-Mortar Stores by Experiential Retail Ease of access to places and goods At the same time, there could be more will change the demands for certain mixed-use buildings with experiential types of stores and may cause retail to retail, high-end restaurants, and bars as congregate around anchor stores where developers make complementary services the foot traffic is higher. As the need for even more convenient and accessible storage and shelf space decreases with in a single trip. Anchor retailers, those the continued increase of e-commerce, with high margins and sizable advertising there will likely be a continued reduction budgets, may shift to transport-based in the footprint of stores selling goods that marketing, offering free or reduced-price can be easily bought online and delivered travel to AV passengers who opt to travel (Meyersohn, 2019). Instead, people are to their destination. likely to spend time in experiential retail (Wertz, 2018), as well as in stores that can generate attention by selling limited- offering, specialty, or made-to-suit goods. As the need for storage and shelf space decreases with the continued increase of e-commerce, there will be a reduction in the footprint of stores selling goods that can be easily bought online and delivered and instead, people are likely to spend time in experiential retail. Image source: Robert Bye for Unsplash. Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 06 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 149 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 06|Impacts on Real Estate FIRST ORDER IMPACTS SECOND ORDER IMPACTS INTEGRATIVE impacts ImplicationS OF IMPACTS Secondary order Impacts on Real Estate This section hypothesizes about how the first order impacts may impact real estate, considering land value, project feasibility, buzz/vitality, and quality. The purpose of this section is to consider how the first order impacts described above will impact real estate. The secondary impacts are largely speculative in nature and are meant to summarize projected impacts along various dimensions. Real Estate Economics At its core, the shifts in the real estate Given the finite supply of existing sector in response to AVs, the sharing buildings and available land, developers economy, and e-commerce will be compete for sites where new buildings defined by the fundamental economics of can be created and users compete for land use and development. In this market- desirable space. Subject to regulatory driven segment of our economy, the role constraints, developers who can pay the of real estate owners and developers is most for a site will generally dictate what to deploy capital to the types of buildings is provided on the site, which is typically and amenities that will satisfy the users’ called the “highest and best use” of the demands for space. As transportation property. Furthermore, the highest and changes in the coming decades, shifts best use of an existing building can be in user preferences and ability to pay will influenced by how easily the property can transform how buildings are designed and be changed for new uses. Developing produced. new buildings is dependent on whether there exists sufficient unmet demand for suitable space. These fundamentals will underpin how AVs will impact real estate in the future. 150 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 06 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE ImplicationS OF IMPACTS nEEDED RESEARCH cITATIONs Land Value The impact of AVs on land values will Historically, land values have been likely be mixed. For one, the change in strongly influenced by accessibility parking demand could allow for more to main roads and transit (Parsons intensive land uses. Thus, residential Brinckerhoff, 2001), but AVs could change investors can add more rooms or those demand drivers. For example, housing units and commercial investors locations that were once in demand, such can accommodate more tenants in the as retail stores visible from highways and same property. New tenants may include major thoroughfares, may transition to regional warehousing companies that rent other uses. Also, the value of properties out spaces for local fulfillment. As people around transit stations may fall if AVs become less sensitive to travel distances, replace transit as a preferred mode of agglomerative effects could lead to even transportation. People may choose to greater variety and intensity of uses in live in other areas that are not as transit- accessible nodes. The resulting increase accessible since their AV rides can take in income potential for both existing and them directly to their final destinations. new tenants will result in higher rents. The implication for experiential retail is More renters at higher rents will contribute that they will need to consider both AV- to appreciating land values in high- accessibility and transit-accessibility. demand locations. Moreover, ease of travel and proliferation AVs are unlikely to unlock unlimited of delivery services will likely mean that intensity of uses and land value some people will consider living farther appreciation. For example, some parking away from retail businesses. Thus, spaces may be replaced by access some pockets of currently undeveloped points required to accommodate people, residential areas may experience new goods, and meals arriving by AVs. residential growth. If AVs assist in Single-family homes may install secure transporting people to and from transit delivery receptacles, offsetting the space stations, some population and property saved by reducing parking. Likewise, growth can be expected to continue multi-family residential and commercial around existing property agglomerations. offices may add on-site delivery offices or secure delivery kiosks. Open and outdoor spaces may be demanded within or next to buildings if existing public spaces, particularly roadways, become more congested. With AVs, costly and space-intensive features could become distinguishing factors of high-quality buildings. Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 06 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 151 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 06|Impacts on Real Estate FIRST ORDER IMPACTS SECOND ORDER IMPACTS INTEGRATIVE impacts ImplicationS OF IMPACTS Image source: Saner Dalhuisen for Unsplash. Project Feasibility Certain projects are poised to become parcels and smaller parcels could become more physically and financially feasible feasible for development if traditional with the adoption of AVs. As discussed parking spaces are no longer in demand. above, the intensity of uses and corresponding agglomerative benefits If retail becomes more experiential and may yield sufficient demand in certain does not rely on voluminous, regular submarkets to make new development deliveries, then truck loading bays feasible. Other markets will see shifts could be redesigned to create more in demand that correspond with lower space for other uses. If shipments and financial feasibility and less intense land deliveries can be conducted in smaller uses. But, there may also be a change AVs, then large yards will not be required in the physical feasibility of real estate to serve truck turning radii, allowing projects. for densification of warehouses. Labor intensive facilities that must provide Because parking demand is often a parking for employees may no longer constraint in developing properties, need to provide as many parking spaces, especially in land-constrained business allowing certain uses, like manufacturing, districts, AVs’ influence on parking to be physically feasible in more locations, demand is expected to increase including small urban sites. the number of feasible projects. For example, feasibility is optimal on sites Changes in goods movement will also where an efficient parking design can impact the construction industry. Projects be accommodated, typically rectilinear that were difficult to construct due to parcels with dimensions in increments site sizes and loading constraints may of 60 feet, the width of a double-loaded benefit from on-demand, small-scale AV parking bay. However, oddly shaped shipments to job sites. 152 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 06 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE ImplicationS OF IMPACTS nEEDED RESEARCH cITATIONs Buzz/Vitality Foot traffic is important for the vitality of This concentration of retail stores may retail stores, which are often located near not necessarily occur in dense, urban larger stores or transit corridors to attract spaces. If people become more selective more people. The combined forces of about their destinations and more willing change between AVs and e-commerce to travel farther distances, foot traffic are likely to shrink the size of traditional can grow in shopping districts developed retail and draw stores into denser areas in nodal patterns around metropolitan with the greater foot traffic. While retail areas. Thus, developers may need to business may shrink overall, any growth identify the retailers that will appeal most in foot traffic will likely be concentrated to customers, which could include those around experiential retail, higher-quality that use transport-based marketing restaurants, and bars, with demand for to subsidize customers’ trip costs. them greatest near population centers. Additionally, these locations may not need Thus, it is likely that a limited number of to be transit-accessible if AVs effectively places that are already highly populated replace transit. Thus, the anchor retailers will draw in more mixed-use tenants. of the future could potentially be distinct from today. Quality Changes in travel patterns due to AVs areas could increase congestion without could impact the quality of places, leading adding potential retail customers on some real estate investments to retain or the streets. Overburdened roadways accumulate value while others decline in could impact the quality of places along value. Because AVs are expected to make major routes, leading to disinvestment transportation less burdensome, people and decline. Moreover, if requirements and goods are expected to travel more for drop-off and pick-up facilities take frequently and over longer distances. up entire ground floor spaces, then the With less real or perceived transportation relationship between buildings and streets costs, people could travel further and could become even more fraught than it longer, thus allowing them to be more already is. discerning about their destinations. This would result in real estate investors The quality of places and buildings focusing on creating the most attractive, will also depend on how rooftops are unique, and desirable destinations. used. While building surfaces offer an opportunity to increase greenspace, thus However, the quality of places can enhancing the value and attractiveness deteriorate if they become too congested of a building, the introduction of aerial or difficult to navigate. An increase in the drones in goods movement could reduce number of fulfillment centers in urban the amount of greenspace on rooftops. Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 06 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 153 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 06|Impacts on Real Estate FIRST ORDER IMPACTS SECOND ORDER IMPACTS INTEGRATIVE impacts ImplicationS OF IMPACTS Integrative Impacts This section explores the relationships between the secondary impacts of real estate, noted above, to transportation, land use, and urban design, and the potential integrative impacts. Transportation Growth in land value may be less Congestion in urban areas is tied to the concentrated around transit corridors integration among different modes of and highway access points with transportation. Although AVs are expected the proliferation of AVs. Homes and to reduce the number of street parking businesses may relocate away from spaces, traffic may increase as AVs access nodes if people can ride compete for the right-of-way with existing further and longer in AVs to reach their modes of transportation. Congestion will destinations. Still, the growth in some also depend on the number and design commercial centers is unlikely to stagnate of access points that AVs can use during as long as there are key tenants who pick-up and drop-off. The combination of are able to sustain a high volume of foot transportation planning, law enforcement, traffic. Businesses in these areas may and economic incentives will determine need to plan for access by both high- whether AVs will stop on the streets, park capacity transit and AVs. on curbsides, or enter private driveways maintained by building owners. Land Use Changes in real estate development could districts. Cities may need to adjust their be constrained by zoning laws and other land use laws to accommodate AVs, and land use policies. Growth in residential investors may prioritize capital allocation areas will be limited if zoning laws do not to cities that quickly and robustly change allow more residential density or mixed- their regulations, such as parking use development. Parking requirements requirements and zoning laws, to promote and lot coverage ratios could continue high-quality places that accommodate to constrain development in desirable shifts in preferences and demand. 154 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 06 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE ImplicationS OF IMPACTS nEEDED RESEARCH cITATIONs Urban Design The relocation of tenants will inevitably Although building entrances and affect the urban landscape. Many lobbies would need to be modified neighborhoods will likely experience the to accommodate transportation and closing of traditional retail and certain deliveries by AVs, the extent of the brick-and-mortar stores. Meanwhile, change will depend on the resources local fulfillment centers may enter into provided in the public realm, which will vacant spaces. Some neighborhoods have a huge impact on real estate values. will grow denser as new businesses, If street parking spaces are converted to sit-down restaurants, and experiential travel lanes to deal with the challenges retail congregate together. If mixed-use related to integrating AVs with existing buildings become more commonplace, modes of transportation, real estate the feel of the streets and ground floor developers will need to devote more on- spaces will change and residential areas site space and resources to make their will blend more with commercial areas. properties more accessible to AVs. If Urban designers will need to contend with the public sector chooses to use right- the changes in intensity and types of uses of-way to accommodate on-street AV around the city. movements, then developers may be able to deliver buildings at lower cost with fewer driveway interruptions along sidewalks. Although AVs are expected to reduce the number of street parking spaces, traffic may increase as AVs compete for the right-of-way with existing modes of transportation. Image source: Adrian Williams for Unsplash. Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 06 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 155 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 06|Impacts on Real Estate FIRST ORDER IMPACTS SECOND ORDER IMPACTS INTEGRATIVE impacts ImplicationS OF IMPACTS Implications of Secondary Impacts on Real Estate This section explores what the implications of the secondary impacts on urban design could be for equity, health, the economy, the environment, and governance. Equity Real estate developments will create new nutritious food may disappear as AVs economic opportunities in some areas as make food access easier throughout resources are lost and property values regions. decline in others. Neighborhoods where vulnerable and low-income populations Ultimately, the distributional effects of reside are likely to face greater economic AVs will be partly determined by the segregation as new developments affordability of the new technology and its agglomerate, likely concentrating near geographic reach, which may be dictated wealthier neighborhoods. Land value by regulatory requirements imposed on may appreciate where buildings, roads, the sector. If the costs of AVs remain too and nearby amenities are best suited for high, they may still become dominant, but AV-related uses. Building owners with the convenience and time-saving feature substantial financial capital will be better of the technology may not be available suited to invest in the renovations required to low-income populations. Further, if to prepare for goods deliveries and fleets are deployed to maximize profit, passenger drop-offs by AVs. they are unlikely to serve low-income populations as well as those populations Still, economically disadvantaged with greater financial means. Moreover, neighborhoods may experience some since AVs consume and process reams of benefits if AVs increase people’s access data, availability of AVs may be decided to goods and places. Employment options by access to high-speed broadband, may increase as transportation friction which is not evenly distributed across decreases, and geographic barriers to geographies and socioeconomic groups. 156 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 06 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE ImplicationS OF IMPACTS nEEDED RESEARCH cITATIONs Health Travel by AVs and densification of urban detrimental impacts on health. However, areas may mean less walking and an awareness of these effects of AVs may biking between destinations. Although trigger greater demand for open areas, investments in walkability may improve parks, and gyms in dense areas. Real in certain areas to counterbalance estate developers may end up devoting road congestion, walking distances more resources to recreation spaces and are likely to shrink, which could have health-related tenants. Economy If AVs produce consumer surplus, then The impact of widespread AV adoption consumers could pay more for goods, on jobs will be mixed, which will result services, and space, so land value would in diverse impacts in the real estate be expected to rise overall, though it may sector. Certain construction work will be rise dramatically in some places while more in demand as roads and buildings declining in others. If AVs are relatively are renovated to accommodate AVs. inefficient, then we would not see their Fewer auto technicians will be required widespread adoption, but may see some to service AVs and vehicle-oriented sectors and populations take up the workplaces may consolidate to more technology for niche uses, which would remote areas. result in fewer changes to the real estate sector. Roads and curbsides may need to be transformed to allow AV-related uses without disrupting other modes of transportation. Image source: Thomas Reaubourg for Unsplash. Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 06 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 157 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 06|Impacts on Real Estate FIRST ORDER IMPACTS SECOND ORDER IMPACTS INTEGRATIVE impacts ImplicationS OF IMPACTS Environment Increased demand for open areas and into smaller areas may lead to more parks near redeveloped buildings may efficient use of energy if economies result in more tree planting. Vacated of scale are achieved. Yet, sprawl of parking lots and retail spaces in more some developments away from existing remote parts of cities could encourage residential and commercial properties projects that create more natural habitats. could consume natural habitats and Moreover, agglomeration of businesses impact water and air quality. Increased demand for open areas and parks near redeveloped buildings may result in the planting more trees. Vacated parking lots and retail spaces in more remote parts of cities could encourage projects that create more natural habitats. Image source: Neonbrand for Unsplash. 158 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 06 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE ImplicationS OF IMPACTS nEEDED RESEARCH cITATIONs Governance The introduction of AVs into urban cities To encourage new developments to take will require greater public investments in place in less developed or less desirable roads and other infrastructure, placing areas, cities will need to update their greater pressure on municipal budgets. zoning laws, address infrastructure, and Roads and curbsides may need to be potentially subsidize individual projects. transformed to allow AV-related uses Land banking of vacated parking lots and without disrupting other modes of retail spaces may become a key tool in transportation. influencing redevelopment. There will likely be a redistribution of the Also, transit farebox revenues will shrink tax base. Some locations will benefit from if AVs lead to reduced transit ridership. agglomeration, with jurisdictions garnering Therefore, cities may start considering higher municipal revenues from those new forms of sales taxes and fees related locations. However, some locations may to AV transportation, including congestion suffer. For example, there will be less pricing. sources of revenue from retail as brick- and-mortar stores close. Property tax As cities begin to respond to changes revenue may change both in terms of who in their tax base, infrastructure needs, pays the taxes and where the tax base is and other costs, cities could implement concentrated. revenue models that inform where new developments and redevelopments occur. For example, impact fees, sales taxes, and property taxes all influence real estate development choices. Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 06 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 159 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 06|Impacts on Real Estate FIRST ORDER IMPACTS SECOND ORDER IMPACTS INTEGRATIVE impacts ImplicationS OF IMPACTS Areas of Needed Research Real Estate Question Type of question Method Policy implications What are policy options Content analysis for capturing economic Policy analysis and policy Development benefits of reduced parking analysis code requirements? Community How does livability affect land development, values? Basic research Surveys business development departments How does transit, biking, Basic research Hedonic price N/A walking affect land values? studies How do developers and decisionmakers respond to Basic research Interviews N/A consumer preferences? What are policy options for Equity, housing, bundling housing costs and Content transportation transportation subscriptions? Basic research analysis/case costs, housing studies burden How do shifts in parking Hedonic price Development utilization affect land values? Basic research studies code 160 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 06 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE ImplicationS OF IMPACTS nEEDED RESEARCH cITATIONs Buzz/Vitality Question Type of question Method Policy implications How do e-commerce uses like data centers Surveys and and warehouses affect Basic research data analysis vitality and walkability of neighborhoods? Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 06 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 161 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 06|Impacts on Real Estate FIRST ORDER IMPACTS SECOND ORDER IMPACTS INTEGRATIVE impacts ImplicationS OF IMPACTS Citations Anderson, J., Kalra, N., Stanley, K., Sorensen, P., Samaras, C., & Oluwatola, O. (2016). Autonomous Vehicle Technology: A Guide for Policymakers. RAND Corporation. https://doi.org/10.7249/RR443-2 Kaufman, J. (2015, August 7). The Doorman’s Dilemma: What to Do with All Those Packages? The New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes. com/2015/08/09/realestate/the-doormans-dilemma-what-to-do-with-all-those- packages.html Leinberger, C. B., & Rodriguez, M. (2016). Foot Traffic Ahead: 2016. Retrieved from The George Washington University School of Business website: https:// smartgrowthamerica.org/resources/foot-traffic-ahead-2016/ Litman, T. (2019). Autonomous Vehicle Implementation Predictions: Implications for Transport Planning (pp. 1–40). Retrieved from Victoria Transport Policy Institute website: https://www.vtpi.org/avip.pdf Manville, M. (2016). Bundled parking and vehicle ownership: Evidence from the American Housing Survey. Journal of Transport and Land Use, 10(1). https://doi.org/10.5198/ jtlu.2016.730 Meyersohn, N. (2019, March 10). Why big retailers are getting smaller. Retrieved October 9, 2019, from CNN website: https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/10/business/target- small-stores-new-york-los-angeles/index.html Morris, D. (2018, February 24). Yes, Uber Really Is Killing the Parking Business. Fortune. Retrieved from http://fortune.com/2018/02/24/yes-uber-really-is-killing-the-parking- business/ Parsons Brinckerhoff. (2001). The Effect of Rail Transit on Property Values: A Summary of Studies. (No. Project 21439S, Task 7). Cleveland, OH: NEORail II. Schaller, B. (2018). The New Automobility: Lyft, Uber and the Future of American cities. Retrieved from http://www.schallerconsult.com/rideservices/automobility.htm Shoup, D. (2011). The High Cost of Free Parking (Revised edition). Planners Press. Simpson, B. (2018, February 8). Fulfillment Centers Moving Closer to Consumers. Retrieved October 9, 2019, from Transport Topics website: https://www.ttnews. com/articles/fulfillment-centers-moving-closer-consumers 162 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 06 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE ImplicationS OF IMPACTS nEEDED RESEARCH cITATIONs Steele, J. (2018, February 22). Ace Parking says Uber, Lyft have cut parking business up to 50% in some venues. Retrieved June 6, 2019, from San Diego Union-Tribune website: https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/growth-development/ sd-fi-ace-parking-uber-lyft-competition-20180222-story.html Wertz, J. (2018, November 28). 5 Trends That Will Redefine Retail In 2019. Retrieved October 9, 2019, from Forbes website: https://www.forbes.com/sites/ jiawertz/2018/11/28/5-trends-that-will-redefine-retail-in-2019/ Yates, S., & Miller, N. (2011). Residential Land Values and Walkability. Journal of Sustainable Real Estate, 3, 23–43. Zimmer, A. (2016, December 6). How Buildings Are Tackling the Problem of Package Pile-Up. Retrieved October 9, 2019, from DNAinfo New York website: https://www. dnainfo.com/new-york/20161206/murray-hill/package-rooms-apartment-doorman- delivery-nyc Zipkin, A. (2017, December 11). Airports Are Losing Money as Ride-Hailing Services Grow—The New York Times. New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes. com/2017/12/11/business/airports-ride-hailing-services.html Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 06 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 163 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs 164 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 07 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 07 | Conclusions Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 07 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 165 07|Conclusions The purpose of this project was order impacts, and multi-level impacts in a to coordinate and collaborate with a series of thematic chapters. It is important network of academics and public sector to note that the private sector players are and private sector experts from multiple constantly changing and the research is disciplines about the multilevel impacts progressing rapidly on these topics. This of new mobility, e-commerce, and report is meant to document the trends autonomous vehicles on city form. We and provide some guidance to academics worked with planners, architects, urban and public sector officials to monitor and designers, engineers, and economists to study the impacts of technology on urban analyze the impacts on transportation, form. land use, urban design, and real estate and to consider implications for the To better understand and anticipate environment, equity, economy, health, and these impacts, it is important to consider governance. community goals and values, shifts in governance, collaborative networks, In this report, we mapped out the latest and data management and monitoring. research on the forces of change, first- Source: Fred Joe for Urbanism Next 166 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | Chapter 07 Urbanism Next | University of Oregon 01|GRANT SUMMARY 02|forces of change 03|TRANSPORTATION 04|LAND USE 1) Community Goals and Values The conversation about autonomous priorities to guide policies—preferably vehicles and new mobility requires a before new technologies arrive—there will consideration of community goals and be a stronger opportunity for policies to how new mobility may advance or hinder support community goals and not simply progress towards community goals. If react to the next immediate problem. cities and metropolitan regions have clear 2) Shifts in Governance In order to accommodate the pace likely need a new set of flexible policies of change in the new mobility realm, and codes that allow them to match the government agencies may need to make speed of policy change to the speed of changes to traditional organizational transportation behavior change in order to structures in order to be nimbler meet the needs of their community today, and more responsive. For instance, while also being able to quickly iterate government agencies may need to modify and adapt as conditions on the ground procurement processes to enable more change. flexibility. Additionally, city officials will 3) Collaborative Networks The realm of new mobility and on these topics is apparent. Given the autonomous transportation includes current pace of technological change, the a diverse set of players from the public sector may need to adopt some of public sector and private sector. The the flexibility of the private sector, while relationships between the public sector the private sector may need to adopt and private sector are changing, and the some of the accountability of the public need for communication and collaboration sector. 4) Data Management and Monitoring New technology has provided new in parking demand, change in land use opportunities and challenges for using (at a temporal and spatial scale), and data to address public issues. Our transportation demand. research found that we need better data to track and monitor issues like change Urbanism Next | University of Oregon Chapter 07 | Multilevel Impacts of Emerging Technologies | 167 04|LAND USE 05|URBAN DESIGN 06|REAL ESTATE 07|CONcLUSIONs urbanism next center @urbanismnext urbanismnext.com