EXPLAINING THE INTERNATIONAL AGENDA: FRAMES AND POWER IN POLITICS by STEVEN BARRY ROTHMAN A DISSERTATION Presented to the Department ofPolitical Science and the Graduate School ofthe University of Oregon in partial fulfillment ofthe requirements for the degree of Doctor ofPhilosophy September 2009 11 University of Oregon Graduate School Confirmation of Approval and Acceptance of Dissertation prepared by: Steven Rothman Title: "Explaining the International Agenda: Frames and Power in Politics" This dissertation has been accepted and approved in partial fulfillment ofthe requirements for the degree in the Department ofPolitical Science by: Ronald Mitchell, Chairperson, Political Science Craig Parsons, Member, Political Science Lars Skalnes, Member, Political Science Jean Stockard, Outside Member, Planning Public Policy & Mgmt and Richard Linton, Vice President for Research and Graduate Studies/Dean ofthe Graduate School for the University of Oregon. September 5, 2009 Original approval signatures are on file with the Graduate School and the University ofOregon Libraries. 111 An Abstract ofthe Dissertation of Steven B. Rothman for the degree of Doctor ofPhilosophy in the Department ofPolitical Science to be taken September 2009 Title: EXPLAINING THE INTERNATIONAL AGENDA: FRAMES AND POWER IN POLITICS Approved: Ronald B. Mitchell The use ofrhetoric to frame policy issues often influences the amount ofattention countries pay to international issues and the level ofsupport for those issues. Often, domestic and international actors present different descriptions ofpolicy issues in order to advance their own views and change the international agenda. Despite frequent attempts to change the international agenda and the importance ofagendas for policy formation, our understanding ofthe factors that contribute to why particular issues get international attention is limited. This project develops a theoretical understanding ofthe development ofthe international agenda, how issues on that agenda are framed, and why agendas change over time. The project contributes to international relations theory by understanding the factors responsible for increasing attention to issues, and the factors that influence how states define the problems on the international agenda that may eventually become part of international treaties and organizations. The project redefines agendas through a IV constructivist approach where individuals interpret real phenomena through frames. Rhetoric's influence on agenda changes described in this project also demonstrates a mechanism through which the soft power ofattraction changes international outcomes. The project takes a positivist approach to analyzing constructivist and realist causes of agenda changes. The project tests specific implications ofthese theories ofinternational agenda development and issue framing by examining the case ofinternational efforts to address whaling. The project demonstrates the importance ofpolarity in enabling changes in attention from security to non-security issues and the importance ofrhetoric in causing changes in issue frames. v CURRICULUM VITAE NAME OF AUTHOR: Steven Barry Rothman PLACE OF BIRTH: Buffalo, New York DATE OF BIRTH: May 14,1977 GRADUATE AND UNDERGRADUATE SCHOOLS ATTENDED: University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon University ofDelaware, Newark, Delaware DEGREES AWARDED: Doctor ofPhilosophy, Political Science, September 2009, University of Oregon Master of Science, Political Science, 2006, University ofOregon Bachelor ofArts, Political Science and Economics, 1999, University ofDelaware AREAS OF SPECIAL INTEREST: International Relations Research Design and Methodology Decision Making PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE: Instructor, University ofOregon, Eugene, 2007-2009 Research Assistant, University ofOregon, Eugene, 2007-2008 Teaching Assistant, University of Oregon, Eugene, 2006-2008 Research Project Manager, Ronald B. Mitchell, Eugene, Oregon 2004-2007 Program Coordinator and Academic Advisor, Office ofInternational Affairs, University of Oregon, Eugene, 2004 VI GRANTS, AWARDS AND HONORS: Rozanne Enerson Junker Scholarship Award, University of Oregon, 2007, 2008 Charles A. Reed Graduate Fellowship Award, University of Oregon, 2008 John L. and Naomi M. Luvaas Fellowship in Arts and Sciences, University of Oregon, 2006-2007 Institute on Qualitative Research Methods Fellowship, University ofOregon, 2006 PUBLICATIONS: Duggan, E., & Rothman, S. B. (2008, Feb 3). Peak oil: Will we see it coming? Register Guard, p. B3, Rothman, S. B. (2008). Comparatively evaluating potential dissertation and thesis projects. PS: Political Science & Politics, 41(2),367-369. Rothman, S. B. (2007). Understanding data quality through reliability: A comparison of data reliability assessment from three treaty datasets. International Studies Review, 9(3),437-456. Mitchell, R. B., & Rothman, S. B. (2007). International agreement coding manual: Formatted for coders, trainers, and trainees (version 1.0). from http://iea.uoregon.edu/pages/CodingManual.Vl.pdf VB ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This project benefited from the extremely valuable assistance and advice from my dissertation committee: Ronald Mitchell, Lars Skalnes, Craig Parsons, Jean Stockard, and Bob O'Brien. I would specifically like to thank Jean Stockard for her generosity and flexibility. I am especially grateful to Ronald Mitchell for his tolerance, patience, constant engagement, rapid responses, and valuable critical feedback to improve all my work and advancement in academia. I would not have been as successful without Ron's instrumental feedback and willingness to serve as my mentor, critic, and advisor. I also appreciate the help John Orbell has provided, his always valuable support, and advice on navigating the complexities of academia. Various conference panelists and anonymous reviewers provided important feedback for this project. I appreciate assistance from the presenters at the Institute on Qualitative Research Methods, Frank Alcock, Jennifer Bailey, Elizabeth Bloodgood, Michael Cairo, Charli Carpenter, Charles Chester, Anne Marie Clark, Michael Dyer, Charlotte Epstein, Christopher Gore, William Muck, Kate O'Neill, MJ Peterson, Jack Porter, Stuart Shulman, Joshua Stapel, DG Webster, Inger Weibust, others on the GEP ED listserv, and the graduate students and faculty at the University of Oregon. I would also like to give gratitude to my family who have listened to my monologues on frames and constructions with skepticism and helped me clarify my argumentation. Finally, I express my deepest appreciation to Reiko, without whom I V111 would have never had the strength and will to complete this project, for all her sacrifices and assistance to make this project possible. In Memory ofNathan Rothman IX x TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter Page I. INTRODUCTION 1 Why Is the International Agenda Important? 6 Why Are Frames and Non-State Actors Important? 14 Project Methodology...... 16 II. CONCEPTUALIZING THE INTERNATIONAL AGENDA AND ISSUE FRAMES 25 What Is the International Agenda? ." 26 Defining Issue Importance 32 J\Jumber of States 33 Strength ofStates 35 Depth of Concern 36 What Is an Issue? 39 What Are Frames? 42 Frame Types: Umecognized, Contested, and Dominant.... 46 What Is the Content of Frames? 50 Conclusions 58 III. CAUSES OF CHANGES IN THE INTERNATIONAL AGENDA 60 Why Does the International Agenda Change? 62 Material Causes of Changes in the International Agenda 63 Issue Importance and State Interest 64 Power Distribution and Contestation and Dominance over the International Agenda 68 Rhetorical Causes of Changes in the International Agenda 71 Blame and Causal Characteristics 73 Victimization and Consequence Characteristics 74 International Exposure 76 Chapter Rhetoric Content .. Strategic Use ofRhetoric and Rhetorical Entrepreneurs .. Conclusions . IV. INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS TO ADDRESS WHALING: ISSUE EMERGENCE . International Attention to Whaling . On and Offthe Agenda (1500 - 1944) .. Sustained Interest in Whaling (1944 - 2008) . Material Hypotheses . Security Issues Dominate the International Agenda . Non-Material Hypotheses . Naming and Blaming . Naming and Victimization . Timing and Magnitude .. Conclusions . V. INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS TO ADDRESS WHALING: FRAME CHANGES . International Whaling Frames . Whaling Exploitation Frame . Whaling Management Frame .. Whaling Preservation Frame . Material Hypotheses . Non-Material Hypotheses . Exposure . Connections to Discourse and Culture . Completeness . Rh t . 1M . l' S . e onca anlpu atIon trategles .. Conclusions . Xl Page 83 88 103 108 109 110 118 118 121 125 126 136 139 143 146 146 148 154 158 161 164 165 170 174 176 179 xu Chapter Page VI. SUMMATION AND CONCLUSIONS 182 Contributions to International Agenda Research........................................ 183 Understanding Changes in the International Agenda 187 Changes in Issue Attention on the Agenda 187 Changes in Frames 190 Rhetoric as a Mechanism of Soft Power Influence 195 Some Caveats ofthis Project 199 After the Moratorium 202 Further Questions...................................................................................... 205 APPEl\TDICES 210 A. NEW YORK TIMES ARTICLE DATA 210 B. GOOGLE NEWS SEARCH DATA . 225 REFERENCES 227 Xlll LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 1. Issue Concept Diagram 52 2. International Whaling Commission Membership 119 3. States and Whaling in the New York Times 130 4. Country Specific Blame Sparklines (1920-1946, 2 year intervals) 131 5. Percentage of Country Blame in the New York Times 134 6. Country Specific Blame Spark1ines (1970-1980, 2 year intervals) 135 7. Whaling Quotas and the Moratorium 161 XIV LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1. Sample Illustration ofDominant Frames in International Politics .. 48 2. Examples of Causes and Consequences ofthe 2003 Iraq War 56 3. Summary ofAgenda Changes for Whaling 120 4. World Power Polarity and the International Agenda 123 5. Frame Changes in Whaling 148 6. Whaling Contestation and Polarity 162 7. Frequency of Whaling Articles in the New York Times by Decade 211 8. New York Times Article Data 211 9. Codes for Non-State Actors ofInterest in New Yark Times Text 224 10. Google News Search Article Count (1920-] 946, 2-Year Intervals)........... 225 11. Google News Search Article Count (1970-1980, 2-Year Intervals)........... 226 1 CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION What accounts for the emergence of some issues on the international agenda and not others? Why does a given issue emerge when it does, rather than earlier or later? What accounts for changes in perceptions ofan issue on the international agenda? At any time, a large number ofinternational issues compete for attention from governments, international organizations, and non-governmental organizations or advocacy groups. We see news ofdeclining polar bear populations, potential water shortages, conflict in Afghanistan, genocide in Sudan, North Korea nuclear tests, and many other issues. Sometimes these issues attract a great deal of attention from advocacy groups, international organizations, or states, and other times these issues are virtually ignored by one or all ofthese actors. Before 1970, the international community paid very little attention to issues ofenvironmental protection, yet today, it is one ofthe more prominent issues on the international agenda with approximately 961 international treaties, ofwhich approximately 76% were created after 1970 (Mitchell, 2003a). Violence in Burundi between Rutu and Tutsi in 1972 received very little attention from the international community, but similar violence between Rutu and Tutsi in Rwanda in 1994 received worldwide attention eventually leading to a declaration of genocide and the formation of an international criminal tribunal to prosecute those responsible for the violence. Even when issues appear on the agenda, actors may perceive them very differently. In 2003, the United States and the Coalition ofthe Willing invaded Iraq with 2 the intention ofchanging the regime and ousting sitting head ofstate, Saddam Hussein. Much ofthe world looked at the events leading up to the second Iraq conflict in 2003 with very different eyes. The United States saw a rogue regime, frequently defying international sanctions and resolutions placed by the UN prohibiting weapons ofmass destruction. Some European states saw a weak Iraqi regime in need ofmore time to demonstrate its willingness to abide by rules ofthe international community. The account by the United States changed several times as descriptions moved from a state developing weapons ofmass destruction, to a state that had the potential for weapons of mass destruction, and eventually to an oppressive regime. Sometimes, as in the case of Iraq, perceptions ofthe issue change over time or differ between actors. Other times actors might agree on perceptions ofinternational issues but differ in their attention to such issues. This project seeks to understand the factors responsible for changes in the international agenda. Two aspects ofthe international agenda require explanation: issue importance and issue perception. To explain issue importance and issue emergence this project uses variables such as polarity and concern over security and the use ofrhetoric to influence perceived issue importance. These variables are rooted in materialist and constructivist theories from international relations combined with theories from the social movement literature. As part ofunderstanding why issues become part ofthe international agenda, this project seeks to understand the influence ofrhetoric and words on the international 3 agenda. Can words influence state interest in international issues, creating interest or increasing importance ofissues? Can words influence perceptions ofissues on the international agenda? Under what conditions might words successfully change issue perception or issue importance for states? The project tests theories ofrhetorical influence on the international agenda through changes in frames by examining both material and non-material variables on the case of efforts to address whaling from the 1500s through 2008. This project shows that both material and non-material variables influence the international agenda in different ways. Material factors better explain changes in issue emergence on the international agenda and the ebb and flow of attention toward international issues over time. Whaling emerged on the international agenda when it involved security concerns for states or when states were under less threat in a bipolar or unipolar international system. Polarity acts as an enabling cause, allowing non-security issues to emerge onto the international agenda when larger states provide some security to smaller states. Non-material, rhetorical, variables influence the perception of issues on the international agenda more than material factors. The perception ofwhaling transitioned twice in the periods between 1930 and 1946 and between 1970 and 1982. Some factors that contribute to perception change involve international exposure ofthe rhetoric, connections to a broader culture or discourse, and the particular rhetorical manipulation strategies used by international actors. 4 The project proceeds in the rest ofthe introduction chapter to describe why international issue emergence is an important area ofstudy because of its role in generating international policy and international treaties. The chapter also reviews research by other scholars attempting to understand international agenda formation and describes the differences between this project and other research. The introduction describes the project's methodological approach and the use of"frames" as a perspective toward gaining insight into issue perceptions. After the introduction, Chapter II defines the international agenda in terms ofboth issue attention and issue perceptions. The chapter utilizes definitions from research on domestic agendas, constructivism, and the social movement research on frames to develop a new definition ofthe international agenda and measurement ofchanges in the agenda. To summarize the chapter briefly, the international agenda is defined by issues ofsome concern to more than one state. This concern is measured by the number of states, the strength ofthose states, and the depth oftheir concern for the issue. Issues consist ofcomplex interpretations ofreality and constructed perceptions by different actors. This project refers to these perceptions as frames. Frames highlight or hide specific characteristics ofthe issue, which can influence policies proposed and accepted for addressing the international issue. Therefore, the international agenda consists of issues that states perceive as important and their perceptions ofthose issues. Changes on the international agenda can occur through changes in either aspect ofthe international agenda. 5 Chapter III discuses the theoretical causes of changes in the international agenda. The chapter divides these causes into material and non-material influences just as one might divide international relations theory more generally into realist and constructivist theories (Copeland, 2000; Sterling-Folker, 2002).1 The realist causes involve state security and polarity in determining the importance of different issues on the international agenda. Realist factors theoretically influence the degree of contestation over frames (issue perception) and issue attention (issue emergence). Non-material factors, based on the influence ofrhetoric, theoretically increase issue attention by blaming states or describing them as victims. Non-material factors can also influence the perception of issues through international exposure, connections to a broader discourse and culture, and by containing a complete issue frame. Finally, different strategies of rhetoric manipulation may influence the acceptability ofpolicy prescriptions and influence issue importance. Chapter IV and Chapter V empirically analyze the theoretical causes developed in Chapter III on the case of whaling between 1500 and 2008. The two chapters divide the empirical analysis based on the two potential changes in the dependent variable. Chapter IV examines theoretical causes of issue attention; issue emergence and change of issue importance on the agenda. In particular, Chapter IV analyzes the influence ofpolarity on security concerns for states relative to non-security issues and the influence ofrhetoric on 1 Scholars have divided international relations theories in a variety ofways including the one used in this chapter. (See Carlsnaes, Simmons, & Risse-Kappen, 2002; Dougherty & Pfaltzgraff, 2001; Viotti & Kauppi, 1999). 6 issue attention. Chapter V examines the influence ofpolarity on frame contestation and rhetoric, international exposure, connections to discourse, and rhetoric completeness on changes in frames (issue perception). Chapters V and VI do not attempt to explain all the changes that occurred in regards to the whaling issue. Instead, these chapters focus only on aspects relevant to the theoretically derived hypotheses tested in those chapters. Chapter VI concludes the dissertation by summarizing the primary observations in the dissertation and identifying extension ofthis research to other areas of international relations. WHY IS THE INTERNATIONAL AGENDA IMPORTANT? As part ofthe public policy process, getting an issue on the agenda is the first step toward generating public or international law. The process ofdefining a problem or an international issue is an important part ofthe policy making process. Although there are a number ofways to define the steps in the policy making process, it can generally be grouped into four stages: (1) agenda-setting and problem defining; (2) policy formation; (3) polity implementation; (4) policy review and assessment (1. E. Anderson, 2006; Kingdon, 2003, pp. 2-3). In the first stage, the issue must gain enough attention to warrant the expense and time ofdeveloping policy alternatives in the second stage. Only when an issue has become part of the agenda can policy makers begin generating possible policies to address the issue. In the second stage, states create policies through negotiations among which actors choose a policy through voting or other decision making process. The perception ofthe issue directly influences the content ofthe 7 policies fonnulated in the second stage. 2 The third stage involves the provision of material resources in order to move the policy plan into action. Sometimes this involves the provision ofmoney or personnel who act on the policy generated in stage 2. Finally, stage 4 ofthe policy process involves policy assessment, where actors may audit the effects of a policy in order to determine the success or failure. A large number ofscholars have documented the relative effectiveness of different institutions and treaty designs in stage 4 (Bernauer, 1995; Grundmann, 1998; R. O. Keohane & Levy, 1996; Mitchell, 2002, 2003c; O. R. Young, 1999; O. R. Young & Levy, 1999). There is less much less research on why issues become important for international actors. This first step in the policy making process is under-researched in international environmental politics research (Clark, Jager, & van Eijndhoven, 2001) and international relations theory more generally (Livingston, 1992, p. 313). Many studies in agenda-setting in environmental politics consist of case studies that explain the emergence of a particular issue on the international agenda without systematic theoretically based examinations of issue development. Examples ofthese case studies involve efforts ofcooperation between East and West Europe (Darst, 2001), protection ofthe ozone layer (Parson, 1993), international fisheries management (Peterson, 1993), or pesticides management in developing countries (Paarlberg, 1993). These studies set out to understand the dimensions ofregulation and management of a 2 See also Jervis (1976) and Suh (2005) on the importance of perception for international politics outside ofenvironmental politics. 8 particular set of international issues. Although issue development is an important part of the story for each issue, these studies do not examine the causes of issue development and agenda formation systematically, because the studies do not focus on understanding agenda formation specifically. Because agenda formation and problem defining occur in the first stage ofpolicy formation, the first stage naturally affects the subsequent policy stages. In the most basic sense, if an issue does not appear on the agenda, then policy makers cannot formulate policies in the second stage and cannot implement policies in the third. Many issues discussed by international actors never become part ofthe international agenda, and we often do not hear of such issues unless they become part ofthe agenda. For example, several years before the adoption of conferences and treaties on landmines, protection of child soldiers, and protection of whales, advocates discussed these issues without much, if any, involvement from states. Some issues, such as banning landmine use were discussed among private actors and non-governmental actors before states began to pay attention to the issue (Cameron, Lawson, & Tomlin, 1998). Public choice scholars have a long history of documenting the importance of agenda-setting for determining outcomes through game theoretic and other analyses leading one scholar to label agenda control, "the supreme instrument ofpower" (Schattschneider, 1975). At the heart ofthis research, Arrow first developed an understanding ofhow different agendas can produce multiple outcomes given specific voting rules and specific preferences among the voters (1963). Depending on the pairing 9 of agenda items when votes occur, multiple outcomes are possible. Those who control the items on the agenda can control the outcome ofpolicy formation in certain settings. Agenda-setting in Arrow's study amounts to deciding which policies appear on the agenda, and where they appear in the voting structure. Whoever controls the formation ofthe voting agenda can control the outcomes ofthose votes ifthey have some understanding ofthe general preferences ofthe voting population. The importance of setting the agenda for influencing the outcomes expanded in the public choice literature through work by other scholars. The long tradition ofthis scholarship demonstrated that outcomes could be manipulated through the agenda-setting process (McKelvey, 1976), by introducing amendments onto legislation (Enelow, 1981), and manipulation under different institutional rules (Riker, 1986). Other scholars highlight the importance ofinternational agendas. There are a large number of international institutions which have some policy making power that can influence states, such as the United Nations, the European Union, the World Trade Organization, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and others. All ofthese organizations have internal rules regarding who may be present at meetings, who may speak, and when issues may be brought up to the institution. Some ofthese organizations have rules that allow any member to speak on any topic, such as the General Assembly of the United Nations, designed primarily as a forum for communication between nations. Others may severely limit those who may speak at the meetings, such as the United Nations Security Council. 10 Some scholars have examined agenda-setting in these formal international institutions. Joachim (2007), for example, examines the formation ofthe UN agenda on gender and reproductive rights, and the role ofNGO's in moving gender and reproductive rights to the center ofthe UN agenda. Joachim shows the importance ofnon governmental organizations (NGO's) and advocacy groups to strategically frame their issue in order to increase attention to women's rights within the UN. Joachim identifies factors that are important to influencing the UN agenda, such as access to influential actors within the UN that can help alter the institutional agenda. Carpenter also examines agenda-setting within the context of formal institutions, such as within the UN (2003), or within an advocacy group (2005, 2007). Carpenter shows the importance of strategic framing for agendas within advocacy groups or within institutional contexts, highlighting the influence of advocacy groups over the institutional agenda, rather than a focus on NGD's. Scholars have examined agenda-setting and power within the new European institutions (Peter, 2003; Tsebelis, 1997). Given the structure ofthe European Union (EU) decision-making process, scholars attempt to understand the influences of different offices over agendas within the EU, such as the rotating presidency and the European Parliament. Finally, scholars have examined the international agenda as a foreign policy agenda within the domestic US political system (Wood & Peake, 1998). A number of studies have been done examining policy agenda-setting within the US institutional context and Wood adds to the studies of agenda formation for the US foreign policy agenda. Wood describes the importance ofpresidential power to influence the agenda, 11 but also the importance ofmedia and international factors out ofthe control ofUnited States actors. . These studies all describe the importance ofagenda-setting power for international relations theory as they focus on particular actors or international institutions. Although all ofthese research studies produce valuable theory toward understanding agenda-setting within international institutional contexts, none have attempted to understand the processes of agenda-setting directly without a formal international institutional agenda to proxy the place ofthe international agenda. These previous studies point out the importance offraming, focusing events, international power distribution, and the media for the development ofinternational agendas, but focus primarily within formal institutions. In addition, several ofthese studies focus particularly on specific international actors, such as NGO's (Joachim, 2007) or advocacy groups (Carpenter, 2007). Rather than focusing on particular actors in the international system, this project examines the resources that influence the international agenda. Any actor with the available resources can potentially use these resources to influence the agenda, whether they are states, NGO's, or advocacy groups. Some actors may have more available resources than other actors, so focusing on the variables in this project allows scholars to extrapolate to actor influence in other research. Some ofthese studies, such as the EU studies primarily focus on formal agenda setting power, such as the right to set procedural agendas or the structure ofissue appearance on the agenda (Pollack, 1997). While the formal agenda-setting powers are 12 important for understanding how issues become part ofthe international agenda, so are the informal agenda-setting powers that describe the ability to frame issues differently. Several studies described above, including those by Carpenter and Joachim incorporate these informal powers. The discussions on informal agenda-setting resemble what has also been called the prenegotiation stage of international treaty formation, where actors define the problem and come to a common understanding before policies are discussed (Stein, 1989). The prenegotiation stage, as defined by Stein, begins after the issue has become important for states, and thus has already become part ofthe international agenda. Young defines the prenegotiation stage similarly to agenda formation, as "the process through which an issue initially finds its way onto the international agenda, gets defined or framed... and reaches a sufficiently prominent place on the agenda to justify... explicit negotiations" (0. Young, 1994, p. 83). Young's definition ofprenegotiation resembles the use ofagenda formation described in this project, although the definition differs slightly, described later in Chapter II. Another study examines the specific issue movement from seemingly no frame to one that describes an issue as a "global environmental risk" (Schreurs, Clark, Dickson, & Jager, 2001). The study documents the changes in issue attention and definition ofthe problem, two dimensions ofthe agenda (discussed in Chapter II), for three environmental issues: acid rain, ozone depletion, and climate change. The study maintains the centrality of science for all three cases and asks when the cases might become important for policy makers due to the influence ofthe environmental threat and other variables (Schreurs et 13 al.,2001). Other studies as well, maintain the central authority ofscientific information as truth in formulations ofthe international agenda or the reason behind the importance of a particular issue (Crane, 1993; Levy, 1993). Although science may be an important aspect ofissue defining or agenda formation, reification ofscientific information neglects the importance ofmanipulations ofscientific information based on the scope conditions and uncertainty. Ignoring the potential for manipulation of scientific information leaves a gap in the literature regarding the ability ofinternational actors to influence the agenda through rhetorical manipulations. This project adds to this previous work in several ways. First, this project takes a broader perspective in looking at international issue emergence from a theoretical perspective before examining empirical cases. In general, the studies above take a data centered inductive approach to understanding issue emergence and problem defining. This project examines the theories that may influence the international agenda and derive hypotheses first before they are examined in the context ofan empirical case. Second, this project does not assume the truth ofscience like many studies in environmental politics including those above (in particular, Social Learning Group, 2001). Scientific information is manipulable, just as other information, and is defined by scope conditions and differing levels ofuncertainty. Since actors may manipulate scientific information in attempts to change the international agenda, this project does not privy one type ofinformation or manipulation over others. 14 Third, this project contributes to international relations research by examining a case with sufficient variation in agenda and problem definition to determine the influence ofdifferent variables over time. In the case studies discussed above, the variation consists ofa single change in the dependent variable - the issue moves onto the international agenda with a specific frame (in particular, Carpenter, 2007; Joachim, 2007). In the global environmental risk study, the three issues examined do not exhibit enough variation between them to discern the causes ofagenda attention (Schreurs et aI., 2001). Instead, the three issues all exhibit similar variation in attention. The issue emerge onto the agenda at similar times, suggesting a single cause or issue linkages to make them essentially a single case (Schreurs et aI., 2001). WHY ARE FRAMES AND NON-STATE ACTORS IMPORTANT? In addition to the importance of agendas for the creation ofpolicies, non-state actors have greater access to international policy using non-material resources in the agenda-setting stage. Non-state actors have much greater influence over international politics when non-military or monetary resources may influence outcomes. Non-state actors, such as advocacy groups, may strategically present information, use media resources, create grass-roots movements, and use domestic institutions to influence the international agenda (Keck & Sikkink, 1998). Politicians, advocates, and those in the news media pay a great deal ofattention to the words they use when describing international events and opinions. Politicians offer carefully crafted speeches to the public, prepared by hired speechwriters and authors. Countries sometimes even hire 15 public relations firms to present positive images oftheir country abroad (Manheim & Albritton, 1982). There are a number of cases where advocates, scholars, or politicians attempt to change the way we think about issues in international politics through rhetoric, symbolism, images, and protests. International relations work in this area is relatively new and challenges the realist paradigm that does not rely on constructivist international relations theory. In order to understand how words or ideas may shape outcomes, we must start with the constructivist perspective ofinternational politics. Under a constructivist view, non-material factors, such as ideas, words, norms, and identities can influence outcomes (Finnemore & Sikkink, 2001). Some variants of constructivism assume there are no objective facts in our social world and perhaps extending to the physical world as well (Zehfuss, 2002), while other forms assume the presence of both material and non-material factors (Hacking, 1999; Wendt, 1995). This project takes the perspective that there are real objective events in the world, yet non material factors, such as ideas and identities, cloud our understanding ofthose events. Furthermore, the project takes the position that these ideas and identities can change, thus changing the perceptions and understandings ofthe world. Different actors in the international system often contest and argue about these ideas, which constitute the interpretation ofthe real world. Therefore, rhetoric, as part ofthis contestation, becomes a tool for change in international politics. 16 Research on the manipulation ofideas through rhetoric has been the subject ofa large body ofresearch outside international relations scholarship. Research on the development of social movements, media influence over politics, and even psychological studies on decision-making have made the influence of rhetoric a centerpiece of their work. Much ofthis work refers to the act ofusing rhetoric to change outcomes as "framing," where individuals describe real events in ways to manipulate how others think about those events (Goffman, 1974). Although this project abandons the use ofthe word "framing" in order to distinguish the frame (what is believed) from the rhetoric (the tool to change what people believe), research on framing provides a wealth of literature applicable to understanding the influence ofrhetoric on international politics. Chapter II defines frames in much more detail. This project contributes to the literature on agenda-setting theories by showing the value of using frames as a perspective from which we can understand the influence of rhetoric and ideas in international relations. The project develops theory in Chapters II and III based on research from social movements and framing, but adapted to the international environment rather than domestic social movements. PROJECT METHODOLOGY One of the difficulties with conducting research into a relatively new or unexplored area ofinternational politics, such as international agenda formation, involves the lack of quantified data for analysis. Without enough data, some methodological approaches become extremely difficult or impossible. Without sufficient data, 17 quantitative statistical methodologies require the creation ofa large data set. Creating a large data-set properly (one that is reliable and valid) requires significant resources in both time and money (Rothman, 2007). Many times creating large-n data sets are beyond the means ofa single researcher for a new project. In order to conduct research on the international agenda in this project using quantitative large-n statistical analyses, a significant amount ofdata are required. First, the project needs data to describe the issue, attention to the issue (number of states, depth ofstate interest, and strength of states) over time for a given population ofissues. In addition, this project would require data on the dominant interpretation (frame) and the changes in the frames over time for each issue. A dataset for this project would consist of each row or case defined by an issue/year. The dependent variable measurement consists ofattention to the issue and the frame, resulting in two dependent variables. Each of which contains three parts identifying the dimensions ofthe dependent variable. It is not clear how one would combine these three dimensions into a single quantity for analysis, which could create six potential dependent variables. In addition, each independent variable consists ofpolarity, available from other scholars, and rhetoric, which requires textual analysis. The simplest form oftextual analysis simply counts words or texts, which this project uses to develop some quantified data on the rhetoric used before changes in frames and issue attention. The use ofnewspapers to evaluate issue attention fits well with general policy attention to issues (Schreurs et al., 2001). In addition, the attention discovered in a single news source may be very similar across different major 18 newspapers in different countries. This project utilizes the New Yark Times as a proxy for major international newspapers. Although papers may vary in content at a precise level ofcontent analysis, general issue attention may be similar across different international papers (Schreurs et aI., 2001). In addition, New York Times articles are available earlier than most other newspapers extending back as early as 1851. However, frames are not simply the quantity ofwords, but an interpretation of some real phenomenon. This interpretation requires more than counting. Creating reliable and valid data using good measurement procedures requires substantial resources, and high reliability for texts may require repeated revisions ofcoding procedures. Some observations are inherently difficult to measure and may never achieve even a moderate level ofreliability. Finally, as discovered through this research, issue attention and frames do not change each year. Because changes do not occur often, even with a large number of issue/year rows most years resemble the previous year and result in little variation within each issue. This means data for a large number ofissues are needed in order to conduct quantitative statistical analyses. To avoid the difficulty of conducting quantitative statistical analysis on agenda changes and the quantification offrames, this project relies on qualitative methods with some quantification when possible and appropriate. Without the appropriate amount of data, researchers utilize qualitative methods, with tools to work with a small number of observations. The rejection ofquantitative methods does not imply that these methods 19 are not without merit, but only that they are inappropriate where a large data set is not present. Qualitative methods provide several benefits for this project. First, these methods allow for studying a small number of cases, so substantial resources are not needed for the creation oflarge datasets. Qualitative analyses are used from single case studies (Bennett, 2004) to medium case studies (Ragin, 1987). Second, qualitative methods allow for interpretations ofdiscourse and texts that are more difficult under requirements of quantification (Weimer, 1998). Although the system for creating data in this project uses an "expert" coding system (Rothman, 2007), such that data are created by the researcher only, expert coding allows for greater validity and expert interpretation ofthe data potentially sacrificing some reliability. Third, qualitative methodologies allow greater attention to the details ofspecific cases. While quantitative measurements may lose some information when moving from non-numerical information to quantified information, qualitative methodologies allow for textual data without losing as much information in the quantification process (Mitchell & Rothman, 2006). Both quantitative and qualitative methods permit a positivist approach, such that they are concerned with causal theories and hypotheses testing (Lin, 1998). In a desire to generalize theories beyond this project, the project takes a positivist approach to understanding the influence of both material and non-material factors on the international agenda. Taking a positivist approach to understanding the influence ofrhetoric on ideas and the international agenda allows us to develop theories and hypotheses and to test 20 those on a case in international politics. Starting from hypotheses improves the generalizability ofthe study by allowing testing ofthe theory and hypotheses on a variety ofcases. Although the qualitative case-study approach utilized in this paper makes the generalizability ofthe empirical results limited, the methods do not limit the potential to test the theories and hypotheses on other cases. As argued by King, Keohane, and Verba (1994) qualitative research and quantitative research do not require substantially different methodologies given a positivist perspective. The differences between qualitative and quantitative research essentially involve the type ofdata available - data that are quantifiable or data that are not. This research project uses qualitative data primarily because no quantitative indicators are available for this new area ofstudy in international agendas, and the hypotheses are tested using positivist approach. This project follows the general guidelines proposed by King, et ai. in the development of a research project and the application ofresearch methods. A good research project, they suggest, should pose an important question and make a contribution that can be verified and tested in repeated research (King et aI., 1994, p. 15).3 The ability to repeat research by providing explicit identification of source materials and testable hypotheses is a vital part ofthe research process to developing new knowledge (King, 1995). Repetition is the only way to verify results, and is highly valued in scientific 3 Also see Van Evera (1997) for similar criteria from an alternate perspective. 21 research. Thus, this study explicitly describes information on the location and source of data when possible to accommodate possible replication or extensions ofthis study. This project attempts to understand the causes ofchanges in the international agenda. Causality is both contested philosophically and pragmatically in terms ofhow we can best infer causal relationships. Since causality can only be inferred from observation rather than observed directly (Beebee, 2006; King et aI., 1994, p. 79; Punch, 2005), some research tools must be used to move from observation to causal inference. On one side ofthe spectrum, experiments provide the best conditions to infer causation. In ideal experiments, only one independent variable changes, and any changes observed in the dependent variable are inferred to result from changes in the independent variable. Because all conditions are controlled and nothing changes except for the independent variable, any changes in the dependent variable must be due to the changes in the independent variable. Experiments for social phenomena or historical phenomena are difficult and sometimes impossible. Since experiments are not always possible, other methods have developed to help infer causation. The research methods used in this project utilize temporal precedence and correlational connections between the changes in the dependent variables and independent variables. Correlation and temporal precedence provide one method of suggesting causal relationships between variables (Brady & Seawright, 2004). Showing that two variables change together in ways predicted by hypotheses suggests possible causal connections between those variables. In addition, this project uses the 22 counterfactual approach to determine the influence of independent variable changes on dependent variable changes. The counterfactual approach helps to illustrate causal connections by describing the dependent variable if changes in the independent variable were different. Counterfactual analysis allows us to examine whether changes in the independent variables necessarily lead to changes in the dependent variables (Brady & Seawright, 2004). Chapters IV and V use both correlational and counterfactual approaches in evaluating hypotheses under discussion. Environmental politics is used for this study primarily because there is more variation possible for issue attention and agenda changes in environmental politics than in other issue areas. Where security issues tend to maintain a higher place on the international agenda (e.g. Morgenthau, 1948), security most likely produces a narrow variance of state attention. Human rights and issues ofwomen and gender are more recent additions to the international agenda (Joachim, 2007), which means there is less variation ofstate attention. Environmental issues, however, have a longer history ofstate attention, and this attention varies greatly over the history of environmental politics. Therefore, environmental politics provides issues with a longer history in international politics and the potential for a wider band ofvariation than human rights or security Issues. Case selection is important in any case-study research because biases are more likely when not selecting cases randomly or when selecting an entire population of cases for analysis. The case selected for this research project does not constitute a "crucial 23 case," such as a least likely or most likely case for testing of a single theory (Bennett, 2004, p. 29). Instead, the whaling case provides an example case in environmental politics with significant variation on both issue attention and frame changes. Few environmental issues have undergone as much change in the frames for the issue as the case of whaling. Therefore, whaling provides enough variation for testing the non material and material influences on the agenda. Whaling may be more susceptible to rhetorical manipulation than other security issues, but it is not clear how whaling may be an easier or harder case out ofthe population ofenvironmental cases. Because whaling contains more variation in state attention to issue and frame changes, and acts as an example for other environmental issues, this project tests theories on the case ofwhaling. There is no clear indication that whaling is a unique case in environmental politics. This proj ect breaks new ground in research into international relations theory and agenda formation. To date, few researchers have examined the causes of international issue emergence or changes in frames for issues on the agenda. The project develops a definition ofthe international agenda and testable hypotheses to engage in positivist research on the causes of changes in the agenda over time. These are tested on the case ofwhaling, which constitutes a case with the potential for both material and non-material influences on the international agenda. Whaling also provides greater variation on the agenda than other cases in environmental politics. To reiterate, researching new areas ofstudy in any field is a difficult process because researchers must develop new concepts, sometimes create new data, generate 24 testable theories and hypotheses, and test these hypotheses on empirical cases. This project does all ofthese for a single case, which may make the conclusions ofthe empirical analysis less generalizable than a larger case study. The hypotheses are created with an eye toward generalization and testing in other areas ofinternational politics. Although the empirical conclusions may lack some generalization, the theories developed are widely applicable and testable outside of whaling and environmental politics. Increased testing ofthese theories can refine the conclusions and determine the extent to which there are differences between security, environmental, and economic issues as well as influences from non-state actors and rhetoric on frames and the international agenda. 25 CHAPTER II CONCEPTUALIZING THE INTERNATIONAL AGENDA AND ISSUE FRAMES At any given time, there are a large number ofagendas in the international system. Agendas exist within international organizations, advocacy networks, international scientific and professional organizations, national governments (foreign policy agendas), and the international system itself. To understand international agenda formation for this project, we must understand what the international agenda looks like compared to the many agendas existing in the international system. Is the international agenda a conglomeration ofthe national foreign policy agendas of all the states? Is the international agenda simply the lJN General Assembly agenda? How will this project consider the agendas oflarge international organizations such as the World Trade Organization (WTO), the World Bank, the Red Cross/Red Crescent, or the Federation Internationale de Football Association (FIFA)? Does the international agenda combine the agendas of all these international organizations? Developing common definitions and concepts are an important first step for any research project (Goertz, 2005). Because this project explores a new theoretical area of international relations, this chapter begins by defining the important terms ofthe project and the dependent variable. This chapter distinguishes the international agenda from other agendas within the international system and domestic agendas by developing a definition ofthe international agenda unique to international relations. The chapter provides and initial framework from which we can begin to discuss changes to, and the causes ofthe international 26 agenda in later chapters. The definition ofan "international agenda" used in this work parallels definitions ofagendas for domestic actors, as defined by scholars studying US politics; however, the international agenda distinguishes itself from the domestic agenda by the informal nature ofthe international agenda and the lack offormal institutional rules within which the agenda forms. This chapter begins by defining the international agenda as distinct from agendas ofinternational institutions and of domestic politics. Then, this chapter develops definitions for the issues on the international agenda and the frames by which actors relate to those issues. WHAT IS THE INTERNATIONAL AGENDA? To develop the definition ofthe international agenda, this project relies heavily on the definition ofa domestic agenda, altered to fit the international environment. For this project, the international agenda consists ofthose issues to which multiple states are paying serious attention at a given time (see Livingston, 1992, pp. 314, for a similar definition). The research on domestic agendas describes the existence ofat least five agendas: policy, media, public, systemic, and the decision agenda (Birkland, 1997; Dearing & Rogers, 1996; Kingdon, 2003; Manheim & Albritton, 1982; Stone, 1989). The media and public agendas are not ofinterest for this project because they deal with issues ofinterest to the media and the public, respectively, rather than policy makers. The policy agenda refers to issues of interest to policy makers, which in the case ofthis project are not politicians, but states. From scholars ofUS agenda studies, a policy 27 agenda consists ofa "list ofsubjects or problems to which governmental officials... are paying serious attention at any given time" (Kingdon, 2003, 3). The policy agenda consists ofany issues that have a minimal level ofimportance for government officials. The policy agenda is a subset ofthe systemic agenda (Birkland, 1997), which consists of all the issues that might enter the policy agenda. We cannot know the entire content of the systemic agenda, because we cannot know all the potential issues at any given time. 4 Finally, the decision agenda consists of all issues for which government officials act on at a given time (Birkland, 1997). For international relations, the decision agenda is difficult to define because there are no institutional voting rules for decision-making as there are in domestic politics. Therefore, this project uses the policy agenda as the agenda ofinterest as defined above. At the center of international relations, states are the primary policy makers. Since the creation ofsovereignty and the state system with the Treaty of Westphalia, states dominate policy and treaty making. 5 Treaties are the central means by which states create policy at the international level, and international treaties primarily define the content ofinternational law. Therefore, the actors that make international laws - treaties - are the policy actors ofinterest for this project. In addition, this project assumes the", international system is anarchic (see Morgenthau, 1948; Waltz, 1979), without a higher 4 Note that the possibility principle may be used to create a population ofpotential issues, although it was not used in this project (See Mahoney & Goertz, 2004). 5 Note that states are not the only governments that make agreements internationally (Shin, Unpublished), but cases ofnon-state treaties are relatively rare. 28 governing body than state governments. 6 This does not mean that the international system is without any rules or norms (see Bull, 1977). The rules ofanarchy and sovereignty, for example, create a partial structure to the international system even ifthe structure may change overtime (Biersteker & Weber, 1996; Krasner, 1999). States are the primary actors that make international laws and treaties. The international agenda does not consist ofissues of interest to government officials, as the domestic research on agendas suggests, but to states. Although domestic government officials maintain the monopoly over governance in the United States, for example, international politics do not have strong formalized institutional constraints to determine the likely policy-making actors. More informally, the international norms ofstate- centered treaty-making dominate international politics. Therefore, states are the central policy makers in the international system making them the central actors in the definition ofan international agenda. The international agenda as described above differs from several other examinations ofinternational agenda-setting by other scholars. Research on international agendas is very limited, but several scholars have examined some form ofinternational agenda formation. Carpenter (2007) examines the creation ofan international human rights advocacy agenda in regards to an international issue, namely violence against men 6 The European Union (EU) is the primary exception. The EU governance structure only applies to countries that bind themselves to the rules through ratification or accession process, however. Therefore, the states are first to have the choice of whether or not to join the EU and make themselves subject to the rules created within the EU governing structure. 29 and women. In her research, the agenda examined constitutes an institutional agenda ofa particular international organization, with internal rules and governance, rather than the international agenda described in this project? Joachim (2007) examines the formation ofthe UN agenda in regards to gender violence and reproductive rights. Joachim's research presents an interesting possibility that the UN agenda approximates the international agenda. The UN, like other institutions, however, poses a problem for research on international agendas that differs from research at the domestic level. In research involving US domestic politics, for example, examinations ofagendas can rely on formalized Congressional agenda documents that detail the issues that can be addressed on the floor ofthe House or Senate (Kingdon, 2003). The policy agenda examined in domestic research is the product ofa number ofvariables ofinterest, making the formal documents a reasonable proxy for the US policy agenda. In international institutions, however, agendas develop very differently. At institutional meetings and conferences, the agenda often consists ofany topic any ofthe member nations wish to address. At the UN General Assembly, this policy is explicit, in order to provide a venue for open dialogue and communication. Therefore, any issue can become part ofthe UN agenda if a single country wishes it to be so. This poses a problem for research in this project because it leaves the international agenda as an almost infinite set ofissues that move on and offthe agenda continuously. Research on the international agenda using the 7 Carpenter and other scholars may not intend to examine international agendas similarly to this project. Therefore, commenting on the research is not a critique ofthe research but only provides a discussion ofher work and others that deal with international agendas in some form. 30 UN or other institutional agendas as a proxy requires differentiating between the many smaller issues that are frequently placed on the agenda but have very little interest from more than the one state who placed the item on the agenda. A second problem emerges when considering the use ofthe UN as a proxy for the international agenda. The UN is not the only large international institution. There are a number oflarge international institutions, for which there are more members than the UN. For example, FIFA is one ofthe largest international institutions with more members than the UN. In addition to large organizations, such as FIFA, other organizations are arguably as powerful or more powerful than the UN. The WTO and the EU are both smaller organizations (in terms ofmember countries) but have more powerful influences on global trade. The existence ofmultiple institutions, with different institutional rules, memberships, and power, makes choosing one ofthem to represent the international agenda problematic. Anyone or all ofthem potentially could proxy the international agenda. Rather than rely on institutions as proxies for convenience when measuring the international agenda, this project develops the measurement of international agendas from the original definition so as not to rely on a proxy, which increases the validity ofthe measured concept. 8 Although it is possible to discuss agendas for other actors in the international system, such as international organizations (Joachim, 2007), advocacy networks (Carpenter, 2007), or the media (Dearing & Rogers, 1996), this project is most concerned g See Adcock and Collier (2001) for more information on concept validity. 31 with the international state agenda. For the reasons discussed above, this project uses the term international agenda to refer to issues ofconcern to states rather than other actors in the international system. It is also important to discuss the elimination ofthe term "problem" from the defmition ofthe international agenda. Not all issues on the international agenda must constitute a "problem" for states. Whether an issue is a problem or not entirely depends on the perspective ofthe actor and whether the issue provides costs or benefits in their view. Some states may receive positive consequences from whaling while other states receive negative consequences from whaling. States who receive positive gains from whaling may not perceive whaling as a "problem." The problem for these states may involve the anti-whaling advocates rather than whaling. Much more discussion on frames takes place later in Chapter III; however, for now it is important to recognize that issues on the agenda do not always constitute problems for all the states who take an interest in that issue. Therefore, this project uses the term "issue" rather than "problem," because some issues on the agenda may not appear as problems at all. Finally, we must ask ourselves what constitutes "serious attention" for an issue in the international arena. Does a letter written to the General-Secretary ofthe UN by the Democratic People's Republic ofKorea regarding racism against Koreans living in Japan signify the introduction ofJapanese racism onto the international agenda (DPRK, 2007)? Is something more required before we consider this issue part ofthe agenda? How should we define the issue ofracism to Koreans in Japan? Does the issue include racism 32 in the public sphere, the private sphere, or both? To answer these types of questions, we must understand how to recognize an international issue and what constitutes serious attention from states. The section below describes three dimensions that represent the value ofan issue's importance when it appears on the international agenda: the number ofstates attending to the issue, the strength ofthe states attending to the issue, and the depth of attention to the issue. These three dimensions defme the range of attention that can occur for issues on the agenda, which allows an examination ofwhen issues take low (unimportant) places on the international agenda and when issues take high (important) places on the agenda. In other words, they describe the "seriousness" of attention given by states. Following the discussion on issue importance, the rest ofthe chapter defines other concepts important for understanding international agendas, particularly the concepts of an issue and frames. DEFINING ISSUE IMPORTANCE When an issue appears on the international agenda, we can measure its importance on the agenda using three criteria: the number ofstates attending to an issue, the strength ofstates concerned, and the depth oftheir concern. The goal of identifying attention to an issue is to identify the extent to which states value the issue. Rhetoric alone cannot determine the degree ofan issue's importance for states because states can (and often do) suggest all issues are important in order to placate domestic and international criticism. Many states, for example, say that climate change, poverty, or 33 violence against women are important issues for them, but this alone does not help identify the level ofconcern for the issue. Therefore, the three criteria described above approximate measurements of issue importance to gauge the degree of interest in a particular issue at a particular time. Number of States The number of states paying attention to any particular issue varies across issues and time. Previous discussions of international issues typically describe issues that involve two countries (bilateral) or more than two countries (multilateral) (e.g., Barkin, 2004; Mansfield & Milner, 1999; Tomlin, 1989). Although this characterization of international issues distinguishes between the smallest grouping ofcountries around an issue and all other groupings, the distinction misses the important variation that exists between "two" countries and "many" countries. The number ofcountries involved in an issue varies between two and the number of countries in the international system at a particular time. At one extreme, an issue may gamer attention from all the states in the international system. Whether a country is in favor ofreducing greenhouse gasses or not, almost every state in the international system participates to a degree in discussion on global climate change. For example, when we examine international climate treaties very 34 few countries, if any, refuse to sign such treaties. 9 The issl:le of global climate change, therefore, maintains a position on one extreme for internationalized attention. At the opposite extreme, an issue with attention from only two states maintains the lowest level of internationalization. By definition, international issues must concern more than one country.1O Issues concerned with factors internal to a specific country without interest from other countries cannot maintain a position on the international agenda. The concern over equal rights for African Americans during the 1960's and 1970's in the United States concerns the domestic population within the country; therefore, it belongs on the domestic agenda. If other countries took an interest in African American rights in the United States, the issue could become part ofthe international agenda. This movement from domestic to international agendas requires attention from more than one state. Other non-state actors, such as cities, NGO's or advocacy networks may maintain some attention toward issues, but this does not mean that the issue holds a place on the . . 1 d 11 mternatlOna agen a. To summarize, the number ofstates is an important measure to understand an issue's place on the international agenda. First, in order for an issue to appear on the international agenda, it must have interest from more than one state. This, by definition, 9 Since this discussion involves "attention" to issues and not state policy change treaty signatures suggest attention and ratification is not required. Discussions ofdepth ofattention to an issue are addressed later in this section. 10 This follows the same logic presented by Mitchell in defining international agreements (Mitchell,2003b) 11 These actors may attempt to place their issues on the international agenda, and this is discussed in Chapter III. 35 makes the issue ofinternational attention and on the international agenda. If an issue concerns only one state, this issue may be part ofthe domestic agenda for that state; however, unless other states take interest, it does not gain a place on the international agenda. In addition, issues promoted by advocacy groups or other non-state actors may exist on the agendas ofthose organizations, but they do not necessarily exist on the international agenda. This makes the international agenda distinct from the other agendas that occur within the international and domestic systems. Finally, the number of states helps measure the extent ofworld concern for a particular issue. When more states become involved with an issue, we can say that the issue is gaining greater attention from the world. Issues with attention from ten states tend to be higher on the agenda than issues with attention from five states. This does not mean that those individual states do not have a greater perceived importance for those issues. Violence in Rwanda may be the most important issue for Rwanda, but this does not make it the most important issue on the international agenda. This leads into other aspects ofmeasuring the seriousness of attention both in terms ofstrength ofstate and depth ofconcern. Strength of States Not only do the number ofstates demonstrate one factor of issue importance, but the strength ofthe states that take interest in an issue also help identify the seriousness of attention. When states that are larger and more powerful take an interest in an issue, the issue gains a higher place on the international agenda, because the interest ofthe larger more powerful states gives the issue greater importance. For example, it seems odd to 36 suggest that an issue of concern to the United States and Russia (2 states) is not as important on the international agenda as an issue concerning Paraguay, Chile, and Argentina (3 states). When two ofthe largest countries in the world take interest in an issue, the issue gains value on the international agenda, because powerful states constitute a greater interest in the issue than smaller states. The strength of states is important for understanding the degree of interest for international issues by taking into account the differences that exist among states. Not all states have the same power/strength in the international system, because they do not control the same amount ofresources. However, just as it is difficult to justify making an issue that concerns three smaller states more important on the agenda than an issue that concerns two ofthe largest states in the international system, describing an issue that concerns 30 smaller states as less important than an issue that concerns two larger states also seems somewhat problematic. The strength ofmore powerful/stronger states does not necessarily outweigh a large number of small states. Both the number of states and the strength of states can make issues relatively higher or lower on the international agenda. Therefore, this project considers both when determining relative position on the agenda of multiple issues. Depth of Concern In addition to the number and strength, states attach varying depth, or "seriousness," to international issues. Some issues, such as the DPRK concern over possible Japanese racism toward Koreans living in Japan, warrant enough attention to 37 send a letter to the UN General-Secretary. Other issues, such as international commercial whaling, climate change, or nuclear weapons proliferation generate greater concern for states resulting in conferences, treaties, or formal international organizations. Greater resource expenditure from a group ofnations indicates greater importance ofthe issue for those states. For example, treaty ratification generally requires greater resources than treaty signature, although the costs ultimately depend on the type of government in the state. In general, however, ratification makes a treaty binding in international law and domestic law. Signatures are generally symbolic and only occur during the open signature period when a treaty opens for signature. Since ratification is a stronger bind for the state, it signifies greater costs in domestic political discussions as well as audience costs. Audience costs refer to the cost ofreneging on a promise (Fearon, 1994), or in this case a binding international agreement. Ratification oftreaties suggests greater concern than treaty signatures, which in tum suggests greater concern than an international conference or no action by the states. One recent example of such costs to potential violations of international treaties occurred in the United States when CIA operatives may have violated international treaties on the use oftorture in interrogations. 12 This generates a continuum from no concern over an issue, visible by no action, to very serious concern, visible by actions such as sponsoring conferences or ratifying treaties. 12 The legalities of the conduct are complex and involve issues such as whether the terrorists should be considered prisoners ofwar and thus subject to international treaties. These complexities will not be discussed here. 38 The costs expended to a particular issue may also increase for other reasons than the degree ofinterest in a particular issue. Some issues may require greater expenditures to fix than other issues and thus raise the costs to states. Regardless ofthe costs ofthe particular issue, however, states are more likely to incur higher costs for issues that are more important. The problem also occurs for issues that may be very important for states, but have insignificant costs associated with the international issue. The measure of costs associated with the issue, therefore, may not always reflect the actual depth of importance for the state. Despite this imperfection, measures of cost associated with a particular issue reasonably approximate the depth ofinterest by states. In combination with the other indicators, we can get a general sense ofthe relative importance ofvarious issues or changes in the importance ofa particular issue over time. To conclude, the international agenda consists ofthose issues to which multiple states are paying serious attention at a given time. The value ofissue importance on the agenda reflects the amount of attention from states. This project uses three criteria for indicating the amount ofattention from states. The number ofstates tells how wide or narrow states attend to the issue. The strength of states provides an indication ofthe amount ofresources that states could dedicate toward the issue by representing the resources ofthe states that attend to the issue. The level ofresource expenditure in time and money indicate the depth ofattention to an issue. Together these three indicators provide an indication ofthe extent to which a particular issue maintains a high or low 39 position on the international agenda and allows us to examine relative differences between issues and changes in a single issue's attention over time. The three dimensions of attention to issues generate a nuanced measure ofthe international agenda that allows considerable variation between issues. Issues do not appear only "on" or "off' the international agenda, but also appear relative to one another in their degree ofimportance while on the agenda. It is important to recognize when issues become part ofthe international agenda, but it is also important to examine when issues move up or down the level ofimportance on the agenda. The only way to examine such changes is to generate definitions that allow variation among the relative positions ofissues on the international agenda. WHAT IS AN ISSUE? The previous section, in the course ofdefining international agendas, spends some time discussing issues on the agenda. To this point, the discussion focused on the agenda rather than the issues on those agendas, which is where this chapter now turns. An issue on the international agenda consists of a description of a phenomenon, combined with a frame around which different actors relate to that phenomenon. The international agenda does not only consist of a given issue, but also the way states relate to that issue. In other words, there are two parts to the international agenda: the issue's attention level and the definition ofthat issue. Discussions ofagendas are incomplete without a discussion ofhow the issues are defined while on the agenda. 40 One definition of an agenda item suggests "a defined problem, a set ofalternative solutions, and an attached level of salience" (Livingston, 1992, p. 315). This definition conflates the phenomenon that exists in the world observed by international actors and the actors' frames that help define the relationship to that phenomenon. The way actors define issues on agendas is an important aspect ofdescribing agendas. Although this project may be the first to use frames to describe the problem definition of agenda items, other scholars have also defined international attention as both the definition and issue attention (Schreurs et aI., 2001). This project defines issues in a way to separate the real world events observed and the observation and interpretation ofthose events. A phenomenon is central to defining any issue, on or offthe international agenda. The phenomenon consists ofa real event that an actor observes and describes. The observation is separate from the phenomenon because the observation incorporates some interpretive elements when describing the phenomenon. We cannot have an issue without observing something about the world. For example, we have issues involving the world's food supply, continued violence in the Middle East region, improving human rights for women and other discriminated groups, and many more. All ofthese issues begin with some phenomenon in the world. We observe that some people in the world do not have food. We observe that there has been violence almost continuously in the Middle East region since WWII. We observe that women do not have equal status with men in a variety ofareas. It is hard to imagine any issue that we have today that does not begin with an observation about the world. 41 What does this description ofthe phenomenon look like and where might it come from? The observation may come from a variety ofindividuals in society. Physical scientists, for example, observe a great deal about our world and describe this information in a wide variety ofjournals, newspapers, and magazines. The discovery of new information often generates new issues by describing phenomena. Scientists' discovery of low levels of ozone, that came to be described as an ozone "hole," in the earth's atmosphere became a central phenomena eventually leading to an international treaty regulating substances that contributed to the formation ofthe "hole" (Haas, 1992; Litfin, 1994). Without the influence of scientific knowledge, we would not have observed the destruction ofthe ozone layer in the atmosphere. Thus, the ozone layer issue would never have become part ofthe international agenda. In other words, scientific observations or descriptions ofphenomena are a necessary part ofdefining an issue. Social scientists also observe a great deal about our world. Social scientists often make observations about the world, such as the distribution ofwealth and knowledge between various regions (e.g. between the developed and the developing world) or groups ofindividuals (e.g. between women and men). Without these observations as well, we would not have issues involving human rights or global poverty. Rather than our physical environment, these observations regarding the distribution ofwealth and rights involve our social environment. Identification and description ofphenomena do not only come from scientists. Any number of actors, individuals, NGO's, advocacy groups, governments, scientists, 42 authors, reporters, and news outlets observe and describe phenomena. These actors may often describe a phenomenon based on incomplete or imperfect information. Sometimes the descriptions may not be true and sometimes they may be complete fabrications or manipulations ofinformation. Even attempts at accurately observing social or physical phenomena become difficult, because no observations will be without some form of measurement error or uncertainty (Rothman, 2006). In addition, scope conditions help to define the content of all observations ofphenomena, such as the time and space ofthe observation. Accurate depictions of the same event, ifpossible, could differ based on the length of time or the space in which one observes the phenomenon. If someone observes one glacier over one year, he or she may see the glacier expand. A different individual observing five glaciers over 30 years may see glaciers retract. Because ofthe potential for error, uncertainty, and varying scope conditions with any observation, we can never be certain ofthe truth ofany description ofphenomena. An international issue is defined by the combination of a description and a frame that relates the phenomena to other actors in the international system. The existence ofuncertainty, potential inaccuracy in observation, and varying scope conditions, allows for manipulation or changes in the descriptions and understanding ofthe phenomena through changes in the frame, which the next section describes in more detail. WHAT ARE FRAMES? As discussed, both phenomena and the frame define issues that may become part ofthe international agenda. A frame describes the relationship between actors and 43 the phenomena described above (Goffman, 1974, p. 1). The frame provides a context for the issue and a way to interpret or understand the phenomenon. Without a frame, the phenomenon has no meaning for individuals because there is no connection between it and those individuals. Just like frames ofphotographs or paintings may highlight certain colors or textures and obscure imperfections or unsightly areas ofa picture, frames around issues highlight some parts ofthe description ofthe phenomena and obscure others. Frames playa central role in manipulation of outcomes and agendas by manipulating the perceived causes, consequences, and prescriptions ofphenomena. When frames highlight or obscure different real characteristics ofthe phenomenon, actors' relationships toward the phenomenon change making it more or less salient and change the response toward the issue. Chapter III discusses the details ofthe causes of frame changes and influences on issue attention. Because ofthe central importance of frames for the studying of international agenda formation, it is important to define frames in a way that assists in understanding the differences among frames and changes that might occur for frames. Frames are never right or wrong about issues. As understood through the social constructivist perspective, all real events are understood through ideas (Hacking, 1999). This perspective does not view ideas all the way down, but only part way down. There are real events in the world, but frames always mitigate our interpretation and understanding ofreal world phenomena (Goffman, 1974). Phenomena observed in the world have real causes and real effects. Sometimes these causes and effects are known 44 and sometimes they are unknown. For instance, in the case ofthe environment, there are many causes of climate change, most ofwhich scientists know despite some debate over the relative magnitude ofthese causes. The effects of climate change, however, are relatively unknown. There are some conjectures and projections about changes in sea level, vegetation, and weather patterns, but effects of climate on human psychology and sociology, for example are still relatively unknown. Frames are the lenses through which humans interpret and understand the real phenomena and its causes and effects. Sometimes frames focus on a particular set of causes or effects; sometimes they focus on a single cause or effect. Frames can also emphasize the magnitude of effects (either small or large). These frames are ideas about reality, not reality. Therefore, they are constructions, within the realm of social constructivism. Since frames identify the relationship between a phenomenon and individuals, frames influence the way those individuals react and respond to the phenomenon or what policy individuals may prescribe. The frame identifies, for example, whether the phenomenon has any relevance to an observer. The frame may identify whether the actor is a cause of the phenomenon, or whether the phenomenon affects the actor in some way by it. Ifsomeone observes an image of a whale being slaughtered, for example, the observer may frame this as an image offishing for food or other resources. A different person, seeing the same image, may frame the image as a violation of international law or a violation oftheir morals to protect other species. --------------_.__.._-------_. 45 Different frames allow for differentiation among interpretations ofobserved events and different prescriptions to observed problems. For example, the international community might define the violence in Darfur region ofSudan as an international problem because of the deaths of large numbers ofpeople. However, how the states define and understand the events, for example, defming events as a civil war versus a genocide, partially determines both responsibility for dealing with the problem and what strategies states might use to stop the violence (Cushman, 2000). Frames define how actors think about a particular set offacts, and therefore, are vital for influencing how actors conduct their behavior toward those facts. To summarize, frames describe the relationship between a phenomenon and an individual, or in the case ofthis project, a state. A frame is a function ofthe individual and the phenomenon, describing the relationship between the two. Frames are constructions as discussed earlier, but do not need to be part ofa social collective to take form. When a phenomenon couples with a frame, it becomes an issue that might emerge onto the international agenda. Whether or not the issue becomes part ofthe international agenda depends on a number of factors discussed in Chapter III. Frames exist for individual actors, but actors also may share the same frame when it becomes socially accepted or dominates other frames. At other times, frames may vary for different actors. These frames can co-exist when they are not in contestation or when the frames do not interfere with one another. Multiple frames may imply that states should not take any action on an issue even ifthe frames vary slightly as to the 46 description of a phenomenon. States may see violence within a state as an insurgency or a civil war, where the prescriptive policy ofboth views involves inaction. When frames are not consistent with each other, some actors may challenge others on the legitimacy of a frame, making that frame contested. The next section discusses frame dominance and contestation in more detail. FRAME TYPES: UNRECOGNIZED, CONTESTED, AND DOA1INANT There are two types offrames, contested or dominant. Dominant frames are those shared by states in the international system, such that states agree on how to define a particular phenomenon. Each state's frame may be slightly different from others in the case of dominant frames, but the frames do not differ enough to cause conflict among the states. When a frame is dominant, it does not mean that all states behavior is consistent with that dominant frame. Although we might assume a dominant interpretation of state boundaries such that states do not act within the borders of other states, not all state behavior is consistent with this dominant understanding. Some states act purposefully within the borders ofother states covertly or overtly invade the other state's territory. It is most often the case where a dominant frame exists that state behavior can be ruled as "illegal," as contrary to international law or norms. Dominant frames may be recognized or unrecognized in the international system. Unrecognized frames occur when there is no explicit rhetoric or discussion ofa particular issue and states act "naturally" in regards to the issue. What is normal or natural for the 47 states for a given issue may mean that the states pay no attention to the issue or that there is no contestation ofthe issue, so there is no need to explicitly define their own frame for the issue. The implicit nature ofthe unrecognized frame resembles approaches to discourse analysis (Howarth, Norval, & Stavrakakis, 2000) as well as internalized norms (Finnemore & Sikkink, 1998; Keck & Sikkink, 1998). Discourse analysis suggests that sometimes actors within a dominant discourse cannot recognize that discourse because they act within the commonly understood roles and norms. Internalized norms, as well, create implicit recognition ofthe normalcy oftheir actions. Internalized norms do not require any explicit discussion, but states obey them because the norms describe the "natural" way to act. The unrecognized frame also presents actors with a frame that actors do not question, but recognize as the "natural" way to act, similar to a common discourse or internalized norms. Dominant frames may also occur as recognized when states agree on a frame through explicit discussions or treaty making. These periods ofrecognized, dominant frames often occur after a frame is challenged by another actor in the international system, because the challenge requires that states explicitly defend or identify their own frame. Table 1 illustrates the differences between unrecognized and recognized frames for several issues. Many times, we cannot view an unrecognized frame without reference to a foil- a recognized frame after actors explicitly discuss an issue or the issue becomes part ofthe international agenda. 48 Table 1. Sample Illustration ofDominant Frames in International Politics Issue Whaling Landmines C02 Emissions Violence in Sudan Unrecognized Frames Killing whales is good for the economy - whalers should kill whales Use of landmines in combat is good for protecting troops and winning wars - states should use landmines Improving the economy through production is valuable, and C02 is a byproduct ofthis process pollution is acceptable Sudanese violence is a domestic civil war - no intervention is warranted Recognized Frames Killing whales results in extinction ofwhales - whalers should not kill whales Use of landmines in combat inflicts harm on individuals long after wars end - states should not use landmines. C02 emissions causes irreparable harm to the environnlent pollution is not acceptable Sudanese violence consists of genocidal behavior - intervention is required Issue frames may become dominant for long or short periods and may move between recognized and unrecognized frames. When a frame becomes dominant, states may stop discussing the issue explicitly, because states internalized the norm or it became part ofthe larger discourse. Thus, these dominant recognized frames sometimes become internalized, making them unrecognized once again. In addition, appearance ofa dominant frame for a particular issue does not mean all states maintain similar frames. Some actors may maintain different frames than the dominant frame, but the differing frame has little or no support from other actors. Actors with different frames may attempt to change the frame to change international attention to the issue. Some states may maintain different frames than the dominant frame as well. Some states, for example may have no interest in an international issue, ignoring the 49 phenomenon. When frames are not conflicting, the differences may not create conflict or interfere with the dominance of a particular frame. Dominant frames may also become contested frames when actors attempt to change the dominant understanding of an issue. During times of discussion, when states explicitly express their frames and other actors challenge such frames, the frames become contested. When states or other actors in the international system challenge a frame, states must often clarify and elucidate their frame of phenomena. Sometimes these frames conflict and create competition between states and other international actors for dominance oftheir particular frame so the policies to address the issue coincide with their own view. The contestation over frames may involve only part ofa frame because frames are often complex. For example, many states agree that human activity contributes to climate change, as evidenced by the large numbers ofstates who participated in the Framework Convention on Climate Change. Although states generally agree on the causes of climate change in human activity, international actors may significantly disagree on the blame for future climate change, such as disputes between developed and the developing nations (Adger, Paavola, Huq, & Mace, 2006; Schneider & Mitchell, 2001). States appear to agree on the dominant frame for at least part ofthe frame suggesting that humans cause climate change but differ on the responsibility between developing and developed countries. 50 Because different actors can relate to issues in different ways, all issues have many potential frames available. For example, before the second Iraq war actors maintained at least two clear frames: containment and regime change. The Bush administration claimed that the only way to solve the continued problems with the Iraqi government involved regime change policy. Others in the world community suggested that the previous containment policies ofIraq and weapons inspections could solve the problem involving possible Iraqi development ofweapons ofmass destruction (Kinsella, 2007). These events did not lead to a clear consensus among the international actors as the United States maintained the Coalition ofthe Willing with considerable opposition from other states, such as France. In this case, states maintained different frames around Iraq's defiance ofUN resolutions and the solution to the defiance. To reiterate, issues are defined as the phenomenon plus a corresponding frame. Sometimes actors present alternative frames contesting the frame of an issue when it is part ofthe international agenda. Other times actors may agree on the frame or a part of the frame for issues on the international agenda. Since actors may agree on a part ofthe frame rather than the whole frame, it is useful to delineate the different parts of a frame. The next section describes frame characteristics that can define the content ofa frame, which helps us understand how frames change or become contested. WHAT IS THE CONTENT OFFRAMES? Just like the color and material of a picture frame accentuate, highlight, or hide some content around a picture, issue frames do the same. All frames must rely on real 51 phenomena, although the frame itself is a construction. Just as frames around pictures cannot change the picture itself, issue frames cannot change the phenomenon, only highlight or obscure. As noted in the previous section, issues may have different characteristics that allow more differentiation among frames for a particular issue. This project develops a typology ofthree characteristics that define the content offrames: the causes ofthe phenomenon (causal characteristics), the consequences (consequence characteristics), and the policy suggestions (prescriptive characteristics). These three characteristics map well onto other descriptions offrame characteristics. Some social movement research defines frames as containing a diagnostic element, a solution, and a call to arms (Snow & Benford, 1988, p. 199). Other scholars identify the causes, impacts, and potential solutions as the content ofan environmental problem (Schreurs et aI., 2001). Schreaurs goes further to describe how these three rather simplistic categories accommodate all aspects ofan issue frame. This project's use ofthese three characteristics, therefore, resembles the use ofcharacteristics in other work. Not all issue frames contain explicit descriptions ofall the characteristics; however, the frame may contain implicit characteristics even when international actors do not state them explicitly. In addition, the characteristics are sometimes related or constricting to other characteristics. These characteristics are not independent or causal, but mutually defining and constraining. 52 The rest ofthis section describes the three characteristics in more detail. The section describes each characteristic in relation to one another as well as the content that defines each characteristic. As Figure 1 shows in the issue concept diagram, real causes and real consequences connect to a real phenomenon. As discussed earlier, individuals observe and frame this real phenomenon. The frame is constrained by the real causes and consequences ofthe phenomenon, but higWights or obscures different aspects ofthe real causes and consequences. Figure 1. Issue Concept Diagram Real Causes > Real Consequences Consequence Characteristics Causal Characteristics ,..------.....?~,..------.... Interpretations ofthe true causes and consequences define observers' frames. '---------" Prescriptive Characteristics Prescriptive characteristics may derive from interpretations of the causal and consequence characteristics. One characteristic ofa frame describes the causes ofthe phenomenon. The causal characteristic answers questions about where the phenomenon comes from and what factors contribute to its existence. The causes ofthe phenomenon are important for 53 determining whether the issue can become part ofthe international agenda. For example, some scholars argue that issues can only become part ofthe agenda when they are seen as caused by human action (Stone, 1989). However, this project assumes the causal characteristic has more than two values (caused by humans/not caused by humans). The cause can involve any number ofvalues, one ofwhich could be human action, which may, make the issue more likely to become part ofthe agenda (discussed more in Chapter III). States, a non-governmental group, nature, a divine origin, or other values can become part ofthe causal characteristic within an issue frame. There may be a large number ofreal causes ofthe phenomenon ofan issue and the causal characteristic highlights some ofthose causes as well as their relative importance. Causal characteristics may identify only one cause of a phenomenon, but this implicitly suggests that the cause identified is more important than any other real causes ofthe phenomenon. Sometimes the causal characteristic will identify particular actors or states as part ofthe causes ofthe phenomenon, which would make those actors perpetrators. This allows for the formation of blame, which may raise the interest of those states. Other times, the causal characteristic may identify non-actors as the primary causes of a phenomenon. Chapter III discusses the effects ofdifferent causal characteristics on the agenda. Climate change provides an interesting example for examining causal characteristics because of the large number of causes presented in relation to raising world temperatures. Around the phenomenon ofrising world temperatures (global -------- -_._---- 54 warming or climate change) the causal characteristic may describe one or more ofthe many potential causes: solar output, the distance between the Earth and the Sun, Interstellar dust, volcanic emissions, surface reflectivity, atmospheric chemistry (including the contributors to C02 emissions, such as factories, cars, etc), and perhaps others. Actors may emphasize some ofthese factors over others within the causal characteristics, suggesting differential levels ofimportance. Different international actors may emphasize different causal consequences in order to change the international agenda or the dominant frame around rising world temperatures. Consequence characteristics involve the effects ofthe phenomenon. Questions of consequence may involve which actors (human or non-human) might be affected, how those actors are affected, and in what period those effects might take place. On one dimension, the consequence characteristic identifies whom the phenomenon affects. Given that these characteristics identify the rela;tionship between international actors and the phenomenon, the consequence characteristic identifies the phenomenon's effects on particular actors. Sometimes the consequence characteristic may suggest that a phenomenon affects a particular set ofstates in a particular region. The ozone layer hole, for example was interpreted to greatly affect states in the southern hemisphere such as Australia, while the consequences for northern hemisphere states were negligible. Just as the causes of the phenomenon may create blame, the consequences of effects create victims or beneficiaries (depending ifthe effects are negative or positive). Benford discusses this framing as "diagnostic" where frame content identifies the victims 55 of an injustice (Benford & Snow, 2000, 615). Of course, it is equally plausible to identify beneficiaries, which the concept of consequence characteristics can incorporate. In addition, just as Stone (1989) identifies causes as human or non-human, non-humans can also receive negative or positive effects from a phenomenon. 'Frames developed around phenomena ofthe natural world often begin with the consequences for nature when human consequences occur indirectly. The effects of climate change, for example, often start with rising sea changes and weather changes as the initial consequences. These changes then become phenomena for subsequent consequence characteristics of a frame describing effects for humans (e.g., see Diamond, 2005; Homer-Dixon, 1994). The consequence frame may also identify how the phenomenon affects actors. The consequences ofthe US invasion ofIraq may affect some states positively, while other states may be negatively affected. For example, one ofthe recipients ofremoving Saddam Hussein from power could be the Iranian government because a long-time enemy was no longer in power and the resulting difficulty to secure Iraq required great expenditures by the US (a second potential enemy). On the other hand, countries with strong relations with Iraq during Saddam Hussein's rule, such as France and China may receive negative effects from the invasion. Table 2 presents an example ofthe causes and consequences ofthe 2003 Iraq war. The case ofthe Iraq war illustrates multiple potential causes and consequences ofthe phenomenon that actors could emphasize as part of causal or consequence characteristics. 56 Finally, the consequence characteristic may suggest the time frame ofthe effects. Some phenomena affect states in the short term over the course ofa few years or less, while other phenomena create effects in the long term, requiring ten or more years to generate. Actors may emphasize the effects ofrising sea levels, for example, on different states at different points in the future. Coastal and low-lying states are most likely to be affected in the short term, within the next 50 years or so, while interior or elevated states may be affected in the long term due to changing weather patterns and rain resulting from the higher seas. The consequence characteristic identifies questions about the effects of the phenomenon, how they affect different actors, and when those effects may occur. Table 2. Causes Examples ofCauses and Consequences ofthe 2003 Iraq War Description of a Phenomenon Consequences ??????????????????????????????>00 "." ?????????????? _ _. Ideological or personality reasons within the US Administration. Failure of containment policy in Iraq ......................................................., . Iraq's desire for increased weaponry I IThe US~ndthe Coalition ?.. ,,???????..??????????????? ..???????1 ofthe Willing invade Iraq US Desire for oil access in 2003. Removed an Oppressive Regime Stopped the production of weapons ofmass destruction in Iraq . Increased USp~'~'~~~~~"i~'" I the Middle East Create a democratic government in the Middle East Note. Derived from reading and interpretation by Kinsella (2007), various news sources, and reports on the Iraq war. The third frame characteristic involves prescriptive factors. Prescription characteristics describe the policy choices associated with a phenomenon. These policy 57 alternatives describe ways to mitigate the consequences ofphenomenon by addressing the causes ofthe issue described within the causal characteristics. The policy alternatives may also describe ways to increase the effects ofthe phenomenon or prolong the observed facts, ifthe consequence characteristic defines the effects positively as a benefit rather than a problem needing a solution. This approach differs from some scholars who identify "solutions" as the only responses described within a frame (Benford & Snow, 2000). In October 2007, spokesperson for the Whitehouse, Dana Perino, described the health benefits ofglobal warming. She stated that the number ofpeople who die ofcold related issues will not be as great as the climate warms ("White House Defends," 2007). Ifa government administration adopted this consequence characteristic, the government may take prescriptive characteristics that continue to raise global temperatures or at least take no action concerning increasing temperatures. Ofcourse, other climate experts denounced such positive effects as minor in comparison to the much greater negative consequences ofclimate warming. This consequence characteristic implies greater efforts to stop climate change. The prescriptive characteristics directly relate to both the consequence characteristics and the causal characteristics. The consequence characteristics suggest whether and which policy options are appropriate based on whether the consequences are positive, negative, or negligible. The prescriptive characteristics also relate to causal characteristics. In order to create policies for a phenomenon, the prescriptive 58 characteristics usually need to address the causes. Ifcauses directly relate to negative consequences, prescription characteristics would most likely describe reductions in or interference with the cause. CONCLUSIONS This chapter began by describing the international agenda as a list ofissues to which states are paying serious attention at any given time. This definition was adapted from the definition used by US politics scholars examining domestic agendas. This definition reflects the role ofpolicy makers in international relations (states) and their policy agenda rather than other agendas, such as those in international organizations. The chapter defined issues that may appear on the international agenda using the social constructivist perspective where real phenomena are interpreted through frames. Frames describe the relationship between the observer and the observed. The frames identify three issue characteristics: causes, consequences, and prescriptive characteristics. To summarize the process ofinternational agenda-setting, before an issue can become part ofthe international agenda, someone or some group observes and describes a phenomenon in the world. Different actors (or just the observer) can develop one or more frames around this phenomenon, which highlight, expand, exclude, or exaggerate some characteristics ofthe phenomenon. When the phenomenon combines with a frame, it becomes a potential issue for the international agenda. Because ofthe potential for multiple frames, actors and advocates may compete with each other in order to make their frame or interpretation dominant over others to guide future behavior or other 59 characteristics ofthe frame. The issue can emerge onto the international agenda and move up, down, or offthe agenda due to a number of factors including presentation of alternative frames and changes in the dominant frame (discussed in Chapter III). Understanding frames, how states and other actors relate to phenomena, is vital for both understanding the agenda and understanding how the agenda may change. New frames introduced by states or other international actors, ifadopted, can change the meaning ofthe phenomenon for states. This change in meaning can alter how states perceive the importance or their relationship to the phenomenon (e.g. from perpetrator or victim to bystander). Some actors may intentionally challenge frames and attempt to manipulate them in order to achieve different policy outcomes. These actions are a vital part ofsetting the international agenda, which Chapter III discusses in detail. Chapter III . examines the concepts of setting the agenda and the use ofrhetoric to change issue attention and frames. Up to this point, the discussion has focused primarily on describing the international agenda and issues, but the next chapter describes how the international agenda and issues can change and who and what might facilitate such changes. 60 CHAPTER III CAUSES OF CHANGES IN THE INTERNATIONAL AGENDA Chapter II described the international policy agenda in this project and frames that describe issues. Chapter II essentially answered the "what" questions in terms of international agendas. The project now turns to the "why" questions of international agendas. Why do international agendas change? Why do issues appear on the international agenda or vanish from it? Why do they move up or down in importance on the agenda? Why do issue frames change? This chapter examines how agendas and frames change, why issues become part ofthe international agenda, and why changes occur when they do. Changes in the international agenda occur when an issue moves on or offthe agenda or when the issue becomes more or less important for states on the agenda. The movement up and down the agenda reflects the interest ofthe number of states, the type of states, and the depth ofinvolvement ofthese states, as described in Chapter II. The agenda also changes when issue content changes. Ifthe content ofthe dominant frame changes for a particular issue, the international agenda changes because the issue content appearing on the agenda has changed. This chapter divides the causes of agenda changes into two primary categories based on the theoretical divisions in international relations literature. The first category of causes involves the material causes of change. These material causes of change primarily rely on realist theoretical dependence on military power distributions in the 61 international systems and the assumption that security is most important for states. The second category of causes involves the non-material variables. These variables rely on a constructivist perspective. The non-material factors rely on the use ofrhetoric to change the international agenda and frames, with intervening conditions such as international exposure ofthe rhetoric and the content ofthe rhetoric making it easier or more difficult for the rhetoric to create change in the international agenda. These two categories of variables parallel an important division in international relations theory between the constructivist and non-constructivist causes of changes in international politics. This chapter adds to the agenda descriptions from Chapter II by theorizing the causes for issue emergence onto the international agenda and changes in issue frames. Chapter IV closely examines this theory on the case of international efforts to address whaling and the agenda changes with particular attention to the variables discussed in this project. The discussion below does not attempt to draw out which ofthe variables are most important or most likely to generate changes in the international agenda. Instead, this chapter describes the potential influences on the international agenda and develops hypotheses, which Chapter IV and Chapter V test through empirical analysis. This analysis resembles a standard positivist approach to hypothesis development and testing, which starts with theory and tests the theories using empirical information (see Chapter I and King et aI., 1994). This chapter begins below with a discussion on the causes of agenda changes due to the influence ofmaterial variables. The discussion then moves through the non- 62 material variable causes of changes in the international agenda. In brief, the material causes of agenda changes involve the distribution ofpower in the international system and the primary interest of states. According to realist theory, states are primarily concerned with their own security in relation to threats posed by other states in the international system. Issues become important for states when they involve state security or changes in power. The nonmaterial causes begin with a discussion ofrhetoric as a primary driving force behind changes in international agendas. The discussion centers on how rhetoric influences international agendas by changing the issue frame. The non material section continues by describing how exposure and the content ofthe rhetoric can hinder or promote the ability ofthe rhetoric to influence the international agenda. Finally, the section concludes with a discussion ofhow actors in the international system can use rhetoric strategically to change the international agenda without falsifying, fabricating, or lying about the issue. This final section discusses how manipulation strategies influence the acceptability ofprescriptive characteristics as part ofthe dominant frame. Chapters IV and V then test the hypotheses generated in this chapter on the case of international efforts to address whaling. WHY DOES THE INTERNATIONAL AGENDA CHANGE? This section examines why issues move on and offthe agenda as well as why the content ofthe issue frame changes. Influences on the international agenda are grouped into two categories that also correspond to the larger debate in international relations between realist and non-realist theories. The two categories include the material and the 63 non-material causes. Each category contains several variables and hypotheses described in detail below. MATERIAL CA USES OF CHANGES IN THE INTERNATIONAL AGENDA As discussed earlier, formal institutions create the potential for influence through manipulation ofplacement of agenda items (see Arrow, 1963; Downs, 1957; McKelvey, 1976; Shepsle, 1979). In the international system, the power to control the agenda lies, according to realist logic, with states. States possess the most military and economic control ofthe system relative to others and are the primary actors responsible for cooperation and conflict in the international system. Realism frequently relies on the distribution ofpower among the states in the international system to determine the extent to which states will conflict or cooperate and the stability ofthe international system (Waltz, 1979). Based on realist logic, we can infer that different distributions ofpower will change the international agenda. In addition, realists assume that security is the most important issue for states in the international system (Morgenthau, 1948). Non-security interests, such as environmental, economic, or those regarding human rights become less important on the international agenda. The next section examines these two primary realist assumptions in detail regarding their potential influence on the international agenda. 64 Issue Importance and State Interest Material Hypothesis 1: Security issues are more important on the agenda and are more likely to emerge onto the agenda than economic issues or other issues on the international agenda. Realist theory begins with the assumption that the international system is anarchic, where states are unable to secure themselves from other states through an overarching governing body (Carr, 1956; Morgenthau, 1948; Waltz, 1979). Unlike in domestic political settings where states (police, military, etc.) maintain power over constituents, no institution above national governments maintains a monopoly on the use of force. Domestic governments can maintain security and order within their boundaries by controlling the use oflegitimate violence, such as the use ofpolice or military within the domestic borders. Because the existence of anarchy in the international system does not provide for stable state security, security is the first priority for states at all times. When security issues are compared to other issues, such as economic or environmental issues, security issues always take priority (Morgenthau, 1948). This does not mean that environmental issues or economic issues never appear on the agenda. This logic suggests that when there is a security threat on the agenda, it is going to take priority over other issues. Other issues are only likely to appear on the agenda when states are secure. The best way to provide security according to realists is through military power (Morgenthau, 1948). One ofthe best ways to achieve greater military strength is through economic resources. Therefore, economic issues are the second most important types of 65 issues for international actors. Economic power can often become military power in the long term as economic resources can purchase the means to manufacture military resources or can purchase those resources directly. Therefore, economic issues are often less important than security issues, but more important than other issues that are less likely to lead to more military power and security. Finally, other issues may appear on the international agendas with less importance than economic or security issue. These issues may involve benefits to states beyond security and economic prosperity. Human rights is sometimes seen as a type of luxury good, that can only be addressed by states once they have established security from other states. Therefore, these issues are always less important on the international agenda than security and economic issues. It is important to note the potential blurring between the material and non-material influences when distinguishing between security and non-security issues when we consider how rhetoric changes the frame for states from a non-security issue to a security one. Ifwe assume that states and actors only understand reality through their own ideas, then the understanding ofwhether an issue involves state security or not is dependent on those ideas. In general, realist theories do not assume a strong difference between the reality ofthe world and the ability ofactors to understand that reality, as constructivism does. Ifstates have a "real" security interest in an issue, it is more likely to become part ofthe agenda and take a higher priority than other issues. Ifthe issue becomes part ofthe agenda because the frame changes due to rhetoric, then the rhetoric becomes the driving 66 influence on the international agenda. The later part ofthis chapter takes up the importance ofrhetorical influences on the international agenda. Rhetoric may influence the perception of an issue -- whether it is a security issue or not - and thus influence whether the issue appears higher or lower on the agenda. It is important to keep in mind that realists assume an objective observation of state security is possible, while constructivist theorists generally assume that only an interpretation of state security is possible. Material Hypothesis la: Unipolar systems create stability and security allowing other issues to increase in priority or emerge onto the international agenda. Realists define three types of international power distributions: unipolar, bipolar, and multipolar. Unipolar systems are defined by a single dominant state that has larger resources than other states in the international system. 13 Bipolar systems are characterized by two large powers that together maintain a preponderance ofpower, where other states in the international system have significantly less power. Multipolar systems describe systems with more than two powerful states. A unipolar system provides a potential exception to the higher importance of security on the international agenda. In a unipolar system, or a region with a hegemonic power, the international agenda may contain issues other than security issues because the 13 Some definitions ofunipolarity suggest that the hegemon must have more power than the combination ofall other states in order to be a true hegemon. Given that this is unlikely to occur, unipolarity is defined by a system where a single state has a preponderance ofpower (Ikenberry, 2001, p. 27) that makes it very costly and difficult for other states to counter this large state. 67 dominant state creates stability and reduces security concerns. Under a hegemonic system, non-security issues may increase in importance because the hegemon provides some stability to the international system. With a single large state with enough power to dominate the international system, other states may feel more secure under the protection ofthis large state (see Gilpin & Gilpin, 2001; Kindleberger, 1986; Lake, 1993). Under these circumstances, states may attend to other issues, making it more likely for non security issues to increase their importance on the international agenda. Material Hypothesis 1b: Bipolar systems create an agenda dominated by security issues with some opportunity for non-security issues to increase importance. In bipolar systems, consistency of interaction is provided by the power rivalry between the two larger states in the international system (Waltz, 1979). Two large states engage in long-term rivalry such that they are most concerned with changes in relative power between them. This stability generates some opportunity for non-security issues to emerge onto the international agenda, but it most likely will not involve the two larger powers. Because the international system is relatively stable, association with larger states can provide smaller states with some security. Among these states, non-security issues may become part ofthe international agenda. Although the two powers create a consistent rivalry because security expectations are relatively clear, the two larger states do not always provide security for all smaller states in the international system. Sometimes in this system, the major powers provide some security to their allies. However, given that security cannot always be guaranteed 68 because ofthe potential for buck-passing when a powerful state attends to the security of another state (see Elman, 2004), security issues will most likely still dominate the international agenda. In sum, most likely security issues will dominate the international system, but at times, non-security issues may appear on the agenda for smaller states when security is provided by one ofthe major powers. Material Hypothesis 1c: Multipolar systems are least likely to allow non-security issues to emerge or to dominate the international agenda. Multipolar systems provide the least security for states because alliance patterns shift quickly, and there is little consistency or stability in the international system (Waltz, 1979). In a multipolar system, there are no states large enough to provide security for other states in the international system. States achieve security through balancing and allying with other states against more powerful enemies. In this system, where alliances are short-lived and other states cannot provide security, security issues dominate the international agenda, and there is very little room for non-security issues to appear. Unlike in the bipolar system, where the two large states may provide some security for smaller allies, in the multipolar system alliances are more fleeting creating additional security concerns. Power Distribution and Contestation and Dominance over the International Agenda Material Hypothesis 2: Concentration ofpower in one state (unipolarity) results in little contestation, concentration in two states (bipolarity) results in prolonged 69 contestation, concentration in multiple states (multipolarity) results in short lived contestation. In a system with a single dominating power, the dominant power should have primary influence over international outcomes. Since the dominant state maintains a preponderance ofpower and control in the international system, other states should not have the ability to influence the international agenda. Ifa state challenges the agenda of the dominant state, given the importance and dominance ofpower the dominant state will be able to resist any challenges. If all states know that the dominant state can resist challenges to change the agenda, it is unlikely that weaker states will be willing to pay any costs ofchallenging the dominant state. Challenges take place only when the challenging state has a chance of success. This resembles the game theoretical model describing the Chain-Store Paradox (see Ordeshook, 1986, pp. 451-462). In the hegemonic case, the agenda is relatively uncontested. Bipolar systems are characterized by rivalry between the two dominant powers in the system. Since there are only two dominating powers in these systems, security concerns for both powers involve the threat from the other power. Under these circumstances, each state's desired agenda involves containing the opposing state while potentially expanding the state's own power resources. When there are two states with relatively equal power, either can gain an advantage over the other with a small increase in relative power. Therefore, power concerns are even greater than under the bipolar system, where small increases in power ofa smaller states may not be very meaningful of 70 a larger state. Because small changes in relative power between the two large states may have large implications for domination ofone state over the other, security concerns take a heightened importance. Because any increase in power, no matter how small, creates an advantage, two large powers are likely to compete over all resources including control over the agenda. Under these circumstances, we expect a highly contested agenda because any increase in power (even on the agenda) by one ofthe two states gives that state an important advantage. If one ofthe states becomes interested in an issue, it is very likely that the rivalry between the states causes the other state to become interested in the issue also. If both states are not interested in the issue, the issue may appear as a less important issue for smaller states because the two most powerful nations are not interested. In general, however, the bipolar system suggests that the two dominant states will contest the frames for longer periods than in the unipolar system. Multipolar systems are characterized by instability, intense competition between states and short-lived cooperation and alliances (Waltz, 1979). The intense competition in a multipolar system and great instability leads to an agenda that is also highly contested. However, because ofthe rapid changes in alliance patterns in order to contain increases in power of many states, contestation over frames is likely to be short lived for any particular issue. No single state can dominate and force issues onto the international agenda for other states in a multipolar system. States continue to be concerned about security, as 71 described above, but security issues change rapidly. States are not likely to maintain prolonged interest in a single issue because the security interests will change just as alliances change quickly. Due to the variety of interests of states and their relatively equal power resources, no single state can impose a dominant agenda among other states. Therefore, the agenda is more highly contested and transient than during unipolar or bipolar systems. RHETORICAL CA USES OF CHANGES IN THE INTERNATIONAL AGENDA In addition to the material interests of states, rhetoric can also influence the international agenda. Rhetoric influences the agenda by changing the understanding of the phenomena by changing the frame. By changing the frame, the issue may become more or less important for states. Any number ofinternational actors can manipulate the agenda through rhetoric, including governments and non-state actors, such as non governmental organizations and advocacy groups. This section discusses the mechanisms by which rhetoric might change the agenda followed by the use ofstrategic purposeful manipulation. Factors characteristic ofthe actors propagating the rhetoric and the content ofthe rhetoric can promote or interfere with the ability ofrhetoric to change a frame. Some actors are better able to communicate their rhetoric through the media, and some rhetoric is more likely to be accepted than other rhetoric. Since much ofthe information propagated in the world occurs through the media, increased or decreased media exposure can influence the potential for frame changes. Other forums for information -----------------_ ...._._--_.- 72 exchange can become important for propagating rhetoric, as well, such as conferences, international organizations like the UN, and other informal venues, such as summits or meetings ofheads of state. Rhetoric is most likely to influence the frame ofthe issue, which in turn will change the way states attend to the issue. Changing the frame entails changing the way states understand their relationship to the phenomenon. As discussed earlier, the frame identifies how actors relate to the phenomenon observed. Rhetoric can change this understanding by emphasizing different actors or characteristics ofa frame in forums, media, or other international outlets. Various factors could enhance the ability ofrhetoric to change the frame for international issues. Media exposure, connections to focusing events, the completeness ofthe frame, and the connection to a broader culture or discourse may increase the influence ofrhetoric on the international agenda. In addition, when rhetoric emphasizes a particular state as the perpetrator or the victim of a particular phenomenon, that state may be more likely to attend to the issue. In general, rhetoric propagated through the international system, that is complete, and connected to a broader discourse is more likely to become content ofthe dominant frame for an issue on the international agenda The next section discusses the importance ofrhetoric for influencing frames and the issue placement on the international agenda in more detail. Following this discussion, the text describes the influence ofintervening factors in increasing or decreasing the effectiveness of rhetoric. 73 Blame and Causal Characteristics Non-material Hypothesis 1: Rhetoric that emphasizes states as the perpetrators makes those states more likely to attend to the issue, increasing the chances for the issue to emerge onto the international agenda or increase its position on the agenda. Different causal characteristics emphasize different types ofactors by assigning blame to those actors. When rhetoric implies the involvement ofa particular international actor, the international actor becomes intimately involved with the issue. Instead of acting as a bystander for the issue, blame makes it very difficult or impossible for states to remain neutral in relation to the issue (see Keck & Sikkink, 1998; Sprinz & Vaahtoranta, 1994). Many issues do not necessarily begin as state centered because they involve actors other than states in the characteristics ofthe frame as the causes and consequences. Violence in many countries in the world often begins as private actor violence. For example, violence in central African countries has been described in many accounts as "ethnic violence" or "tribal violence," which leaves out the state or other international actors in the rhetoric (see, for example, Bowen, 1996). Violence between Tutsis and Hutus was often described in these terms before the Rwandan genocide (Power, 2002). In other cases ofviolence, the term "civil war" is used rather than other potential terms, such as genocide for extreme violent behavior (Cushman, 2000). When states are named part ofthe rhetoric, there is an increased chance that the state named must respond in some way. 74 Naming and shaming, for example, has become part ofthe mechanism for changing state behavior in response to human rights treaties (e.g. Hafner-Burton, 2008). When rhetoric "names" a state as the perpetrator or cause ofa phenomenon, the state becomes part ofthe issue whether that state government wishes to be part ofthe issue or not. In these cases, the state may have to pay some attention to the issue, even ifthe state's goal is to contest the rhetoric and present counter rhetoric. Naming a state in rhetoric does not automatically mean that the issue linked to the rhetoric automatically becomes part ofthe international agenda. States may still ignore the issue and the rhetoric. Rhetoric may also fail ifstates do not accept it as part ofthe frame, it does not propagate through the media, or it does not relate closely enough to the real phenomenon. These particular aspects ofrhetoric success and failure are discussed later. However, in general, rhetoric that emphasizes or names states as the perpetrators or causes are more likely to become part ofthe international agenda or increase in importance ofthat issue for those states named. Victimization and Consequence Characteristics Non-material Hypothesis 2: Rhetoric that emphasizes states as the victims or beneficiaries makes those states more likely to attend to the issue, increasing the chances for the issue to emerge onto the international agenda or increase its position on the agenda. A similar logic holds true for consequence characteristics offrames. Victimization ofstates creates the same effect as blame, whether welcomed by the state 75 or not. States named in rhetoric as victims or beneficiaries of a phenomenon become part ofthe issue and may have to attend to the issue in some way. When states are emphasized or named in rhetoric as receiving positive or negative consequences from a phenomenon, rather than other domestic or international actors, the issue is more likely to become part ofthe international agenda and important for those states. The consequence characteristics identify the victims ofthe phenomenon in the causal story (Stone, 1989). Identification ofthe victims as a particular state is likely to increase attention to the issue for that state, thus increasing its position on the agenda or placement on the agenda. Non-material Hypothesis 3: Rhetoric that emphasizes short-term consequences or consequences of a greater magnitude is more likely to increase attention to issues. Consequence characteristics also may describe time and degree of costs or benefits ofthe phenomenon. Some rhetoric when describing a phenomenon may describe the magnitude of effects as well as a description ofwhen those effects may occur. Rhetoric used to describe these characteristics of a frame may influence states to treat issues more importantly when states perceive them to have greater magnitude consequences over a shorter time than other issues. The larger the consequences and the nearer the time to effects, the more likely the issue will become part ofthe agenda. Issues described with dire consequences within the next 10 years are more likely to appear on the agenda and become of greater importance important than issues described as dire consequences likely to occur in 100 years. This is due to the general tendency to favor the short term cognitively (Johnson, 2004; Shermer, 2008; Slovic, 2000), and 76 political emphasis on the short term due to political pressures. Humans have a tendency to favor short term thinking over long-term thinking due to our evolutionary history and cognitive development (see Johnson, 2004). This creates a heightened importance on issues described with short-term consequences. Politicians, as well, generally focus on the short-term gains in order to satisfy current constituents and to remain in power. Thus, this suggests increased importance for frames that emphasize short-term consequences with greater magnitude ofeffects. International Exposure Non-material Hypothesis 4: The more exposure rhetoric receives, the more likely it is to influence perceptions ofthe phenomenon. One way to make rhetoric more effective in changing frames, is through media exposure or exposure at international forums. Popularizing a particular rhetorical description increases the effects ofthe rhetoric on frames and the influence on states. When rhetoric moves from an outlying understanding ofa phenomenon to a common understanding popularized and normalized by international media, the rhetoric's force Increases. Popularizing a particular beliefor rhetoric can make it more difficult to act contrary to that belief, similar to the way norms in society make it more difficult to act counter to those norms (see Keck & Sikkink, 1998). When a particular frame or rhetoric is "normal" or dominant, then other rhetoric or understanding that runs counter to the dominant rhetoric becomes more difficult to sustain. Exposure ofrhetoric to a wide 77 audience can be one way for rhetoric to gain traction. By repeating the same understanding in multiple outlets, the rhetoric may change the understanding over long periods. Numerous studies examine media exposure and preference formation over both short-tern and long-term considerations that document effects on preferences from repeated exposure and media content (for example, Herman & Chomsky, 2002; Kellstedt, 2000; Pan & Kosicki, 1996; Worden et aI., 1996). Although not everyone may adopt or accept the rhetoric, repetition and exposure in the media make it more likely. Media and international forums appear in research regarding agenda-setting because ofthe influence on public perceptions (Joachim, 2007; Keck & Sikkink, 1998; Kingdon, 2003; Manheim & Albritton, 1982). Simply repeating any news story that mentions a particular issue does not influence public opinion as much as the actual content ofthose stories and the opinions expressed in those news stories (Peter, 2003). Precisely for this reason, this project deals with rhetoric exposure and rhetoric content (discussed later in this chapter). Forums or places ofpublication where actors present issue frames influence international attention to the issues through influencing the characteristics ofthe dominant frame and the rhetoric that is part ofthat frame. The media and other forums for international communication serve as intermediates in the introduction ofnew rhetoric that may be consistent with frames or contesting those frames (Reese, Gandy, & Grant, 2001). The more exposure particular rhetoric has in international communication forums, such as the media, the more likely it is that the rhetoric becomes part offrames, thus influencing international attention to issues. 78 Media, International Organizations, andAcademics There are three primary ways rhetoric propagates at the international level: the media, international forums, and academic journals. The media, often referred to as the mass media, consist of all the new and old forms ofmedia seen today, including the print media, TV, and radio, as well as web-logs (blogs), email lists, and web communication (Merriam-Webster, 2009). The media serve to communicate information to the public and to government officials, although all forms ofmedia do not always present issues. Some scholars and pundits have comment on the biases in media today and the importance ofthose biases for public opinions (for example, see Groseclose & Milyo, 2003). Traditional media sources have generally attempted to be somewhat more impartial in their presentation ofthe news (Schramm, 1988), yet choice ofstories may still influence the international agenda. With the advent ofnew media sources, increasingly normative reports and claims are presented (A. Anderson, 1997; Barendt, 1998). Media is an important source ofpotential influences on frames and changes in the international agenda. International forums consist primarily ofinternational organizations designed for the express purpose ofproviding a venue for international actors to express their views on any issue. Such forums exist regarding economic issues, legal issues, and political issues, like the World Trade Organization (WTO), the International Criminal Court (ICC), and the United Nations (UN), respectively. These institutions act as forums because many international actors can present their views on a particular issue within the mandate ofthe 79 organization. Some ofthese forums are open to all actors, such as the ICC, where any actor can make a claim against another. Other organizations, such as the UN are limited primarily to states (although non-state actors are often informally involved in discussions). Actors that present rhetoric at these international forums, whether intentional or not, have the potential to influence international frames and the agenda. Academic journals are also an important source ofrhetoric that may change frames for states. Although propagation is limited to a more elite audience, elite public opinion can be influential in changing the understanding ofissues (for example, Karol, 2009). In addition, academics, previously regarded as objective researchers, have recently been increasingly accused ofbiased in classrooms (Kelly-Woessner & M., 2006; Pipes, 2005) potentially spreading rhetoric to change frames. Most literature on agenda formation does not examine academic journals; however, much ofthe work ofacademics introduces new rhetoric or new understandings ofissues for policy makers. One clear example comes from the potential connections between climate change and violence. Researchers have engaged in a debate, not only over whether there is a strong empirical basis for connecting climate change and violence (Diamond, 2005; Homer-Dixon, 1994; Myers, 1993), but whether re-defining climate change as a "security" issue helps or hurts the environment (Deudney, 1990; Levy, 1995; Najam, 1995; Saad, 1995). Academic research often presents rhetoric that may change the frames ofinternational issues, and thus must be considered for our understanding ofchanges in the international agenda. 80 Regardless ofwhether the media, the forums, or academics are biased or objective, their infonnation and propagation ofthe information increases chances of rhetoric influence on frames. Motivations behind the presentation ofrhetoric do not influence how the rhetoric may change issue perceptions and frames. Given the ability ofmedia, international forums, and academic sources to spread rhetoric around the globe quickly, rhetoric found in these sources can change the perceptions of individuals and elites. Changes in perceptions of frame characteristics shared widely, can influence state interest in particular issues by making those states part ofthe frames, as described earlier. Therefore, the more that similar rhetoric propagates through the media, international forums, and via academic sources, the more likely the rhetoric will become part of a frame. Whether the propagation ofrhetoric is done intentionally to manipulate state interest and frames or whether it is done unintentionally, actors who present rhetoric consistently and widely in media and other outlets can change the importance ofissues, whether an issue appears on the agenda, and the content of frame for an issue for particular international actors. Rhetoric and Focusing Event Linkages Non-material Hypothesis 4a: Rhetoric that links focusing events with a phenomenon and issue frame is more likely to gain attention in the media, increasing exposure. In addition to propagating rhetoric, linking rhetoric to large events that gain the interest ofthe media can increase media exposure and increase the likelihood that the 81 rhetoric influences frame characteristics and the agenda. Scholars often refer to these large events that gain media attention in the literature on agenda development as "focusing events." Focusing events are events that expose a particular issue to a wider audience through media involvement (Kingdon, 2003, pp. 94-95). Large scale and rare events create increased media exposure because they create shock and interest among the media audience. Rhetoric linked to focusing events will get increased exposure to a large population because the focusing event creates increased interest and exposure among the media. There are several different kinds offocusing events. Some focusing events involve science surrounding a particular problem that confirms or disconfirms previous information or provides new information. Other focusing events involve non-natural large-scale events (mass-murders, missile tests) or natural disasters (the Bali Tsunami). Focusing events have the ability to attract media exposure because they are often rare, large, and unexpected events (Birkland, 1997,30-31), similar to what has been called a "black swan" (Taleb, 2007). The black swan refers to events unexpected, large, and rare. Scientific discoveries or those that improve on previous knowledge act as focusing events ifthe media increase attention to the event. One such case is the discovery ofthe ozone layer hole (Haas, 1992; Litfin, 1994), where scientific knowledge created a focusing event around which the media began broadcasting stories ofthis new knowledge. Other examples offocusing events that have occurred in recent times include the fall ofthe Soviet Union, the destruction ofthe Berlin Wall, Hurricane Katrina, the 82 World Trade Center attack, and the Exxon Valdez oil spill. These events occurred generally without warning, created a large impact, attracted wide media attention, and occurred rarely, if they occurred more than once. 14 The occurrence ofa large-scale event alone does not create changes in the international agenda. The most important aspect of focusing events is the linkage with rhetoric and frame characteristics to cause changes in the agenda. Focusing events alone are large-scale rare events that generate public interest. When actors link these large- scale events with rhetoric and to a particular issue, that issue and rhetoric gain increased attention. An example ofa failed attempt to link rhetoric and a focusing event involves Hurricane Katrina. The Taiwan News reported that, "New Orleans may go down in history as the first major city... to be lost to the process of global warming." In Hong Kong's Ta: Kung Pao newspaper, reports described Katrina as a "warning by God over President Bush's reactionary behavior on the Kyoto Protocol." Newspapers in Australia and El Salvador also made similar links between climate change and Katrina. The Palestinian press even linked Katrina with the War in Iraq.IS Linking large focusing events to issue rhetoric helps propagate rhetoric throughout the media. In this case, the rhetoric associating Katrina with climate change may have increased attention to climate change for a short time. The rhetoric linking climate change and hurricane Katrina failed 14 Note that focusing events are difficult to measure absent media attention, which makes the influence of focusing events without linkages, somewhat tautological. 15 All quotations and newspaper information taken from a report from BBC News ("Press awe at Katrina aftermath," 2005). 83 to maintain interest because the media increased reporting that particular weather events are difficult, perhaps impossible, to attribute to climate changes. Therefore, the linkages between Katrina and the climate acted not only to propagate information about climate change, but doubled the exposure of climate change rhetoric as new scientific information de-linked Katrina from climate change. Rhetoric Content The content ofthe rhetoric propagated through the international system can hinder or accelerate the degree to which the rhetoric becomes accepted by actors in the international system, and states, which can change the international agenda. This section groups the influence of content ofrhetoric over agendas into two categories: completeness and resonance. Completeness ofrhetoric occurs when the rhetoric satisfies the curiosity ofthose who are listening to or reading the rhetoric. Complete descriptions offrame characteristics in the rhetoric answer questions about the phenomenon that otherwise might make the rhetoric more difficult to believe. Resonance ofrhetoric occurs when the rhetoric fits within a broader discourse and culture ofthe individual receiving the rhetoric. Individuals, groups, and states may have different cultures and broader discourses to which rhetoric mayor may conflict. When the rhetoric conflicts with common practices and beliefs, it becomes more difficult for people with those practices and beliefs to accept the rhetoric and change their frames. The sections below address both ofthese intervening variables more closely. 84 Completeness andAudience Reception Non-material Hypothesis 5: Rhetoric that includes a complete story including all three frame characteristics leaves fewer questions and is more likely to be accepted by the intended audience, which increases the chances for influencing the international agenda. In Chapter II, the definition offrames described three frame characteristics, causes, consequences, and prescriptions. Frames do not need to contain all these characteristics, however, complete rhetorical stories contain all three parts, leaving the audience with few questions. Social movement research discusses rhetoric a great deal in terms of motivating individuals in overcoming collective action problems (Benford & Snow, 2000; Tarrow, 1998).16 One ofthe causes ofadoption ofrhetoric that can overcome collective action problems comes from the completeness ofthe rhetoric in describing the phenomenon for the group (Benford & Snow, 2000; Snow & Benford, 1988; Snow, Rochford, Worden, & Benford, 1986). The most complete rhetoric describes the phenomenon without leaving the audience curious about the answers to other questions. I? Since this project identified three primary characteristics of frames, a complete frame would contain content for all three characteristics. Rhetoric that may take the place or change a frame can contain any 16 Note in most social movement literature, they refer to propagation ofrhetoric as "framing" whereas this project attempts to separate more clearly the act of using rhetoric (an independent variable) and the frame (a dependent variable). 17 Van Evera (1997) uses a similar definition to describe the completeness oftheories. 85 or all ofthe characteristics. Complete rhetoric contains descriptions of all three characteristics of an issue's frame. For sociologists, the completeness ofrhetoric has been described as incorporating three primary core aspects ofa frame: "(1) a diagnosis of some event or aspect of social life as problematic ... (2) a proposed solution ... (3) a call to arms or rationale for engaging in ameliorative or corrective action" (Snow & Benford, 1988, p. 199). The three parts of rhetoric described map well onto the characteristics of frames described in this project. The diagnostic framing is the identification of an issue as a problem and the formation of causation or blame. The proposed solution maps well onto the prescriptive characteristics defined in this project. This describes the potential policy options to address the phenomenon. The third part ofcomplete rhetoric described in sociology also maps well onto the consequence characteristics of a frame. The call to arms or a reason for engaging in action must describe some reason that the issue needs attention. This call to arms describes a consequence, either moral or otherwise, to suggest that the issue is a problem and requires attention. Therefore, what sociologists have determined as a complete story for their research fits well within the definitions offrames and rhetoric in this project. A complete rhetorical statement describing an issue contains causal, consequence, and prescriptive characteristics. Complete rhetoric is more likely to be accepted than rhetoric that does not communicate some characteristic ofthe frame. Ifrhetoric does not answer all the questions for the audience, they may be less inclined to accept the rhetoric as a 86 description ofthe phenomenon. Therefore, the content ofthe rhetoric can influence the acceptability ofthat rhetoric into the dominant frame. Rhetorical Resonance Non-material Hypothesis 6: Rhetoric consistent with a broader set ofcultural beliefs or discourse is more likely to be accepted by actors increasing the chance to influence the international agenda. When rhetoric is consistent with current cultural practices and beliefs ofthe audience, the rhetoric may resonate more so the audience becomes more likely to accept the rhetoric and change their frame. The resonance, connections between the audience and the rhetoric, increases the more the audience can identify the themes and ideas within that rhetoric. Scholars describe this type of consistency as an "alignment" process by which strategic individuals attempt to align their rhetoric with the culture and larger discourse oftheir audience (Benford & Snow, 2000; Snow et aI., 1986). The alignment process involves strategic behavior, which the chapter discusses later. However, connections between the rhetoric and the larger culture or discourse remain an important source of increasing the ability ofrhetoric to influence frames. Different countries and groups ofpeople subscribe to a larger set ofbeliefs about the world, set in their cultural or historical identity. Sometimes rhetoric presented to an audience connects with the larger cultural beliefs associated with a broader discourse. For example, during the Cold War issue frames consistent with the rivalry between the United States and the Soviet Union were more likely to resonate with actors involved in 87 the Cold War. Discussions of going into space and to the moon in terms of a rivalry between these two spheres for dominance were more likely to resonate than discussing the issue as important research to improve scientific knowledge. Given the general increase in human rights discussions globally in recent years, an example of a larger discourse, issue frames consistent with the discussion of"rights" may be more likely to resonate with a global audience. For example, rhetoric describing water shortages as an individual's "rights to fresh water" may resonate with the broader discourse on human rights rather than describing the number of individuals who suffer without water. The potential for individuals to reject or question rhetoric or information that is inconsistent with their own cultural and individual beliefs also presents itself in psychological research on cognitive dissonance. Cognitive dissonance makes it more difficult for individuals to accept information when the information does not fit within their current understandings ofthe world (Jervis, 1976; Larson, 1985). When rhetoric presented does not fit with the current cultural practices and larger discourse ofthe audience, it becomes less likely to be accepted. To reiterate, frames that are more complete and are consistent with current belief systems and cultural practices of a people are more likely to be adopted by those people. Therefore, frames that incorporate causal, consequence, and prescriptive characteristics and are consistent with a larger discourse or culture are more likely to become the dominant frame for a particular action. 88 Strategic Use ofRhetoric and Rhetorical Entrepreneurs Throughout the previous discussions on how rhetoric influences frames, the project has skirted any discussion of strategic use ofrhetoric and the manipulation of rhetoric for particular goals. Often described as "framing" in much ofthe literature/ 8 actors can direct rhetoric at specific targets, states, or populations, just as marketing campaigns target specific groups ofpeople with rhetoric by controlling the place, time, and content ofadvertisements. This project describes actors who engage in using rhetoric strategically as "rhetorical entrepreneurs." They are rhetorical entrepreneurs because they attempt to use rhetoric to change the ideas and behavior ofother actors. Many times the rhetorical entrepreneurs must create new language or new ways to describe phenomena to generate the outcomes they desire. 19 Rhetorical entrepreneurs strategically change frames to serve particular purposes oftheir institutional or personal agendas. Many actors in international relations act politically for their own benefit or goals. In these cases, the use of rhetoric and manipulation offrames occurs through rational purposeful action on the part of international actors. It is important to consider all actors who may use rhetoric to change frames. States, NGO's, advocacy groups, academic organizations, scientific groups, and others 18 The term "framing" causes confusion between the noun form of"frame" and the verb or noun form of"framing." This project, therefore, uses "frame" for a description ofthe perception ofan issue and strategic use ofrhetoric as the act of"framing." 19 See Luntz (2007) for an interesting set ofexamples on strategic framing for US political changes in public opinion by a sophisticated rhetorical entrepreneur. 89 may attempt to change frames through strategic use ofrhetoric. The rise ofNGO's and other actors' ability to influence the international agenda is an important change in the international system that was once only dominated by states (Simmons & Oudraat, 2001). Although the importance ofstate power over all that occurs in the international system has eroded somewhat, states continue to maintain an important influence on international outcomes. In addition to traditional state powers through military force, states may also adopt to use strategies currently used by NGO's and other non-state actors. State politicians may generate particular definitions or frames in order to garner domestic support for a particular international action, like beating the war drum. For example, the United States explicitly avoided using the term, "genocide," to describe Rwanda during the Clinton administration so that the US could avoid actions there (Power, 2002). Rhetorically manipulating the definition ofthe violence in Rwanda as internal, political, or civil war, changed the relationship between the United States and the violence (the frame). NGO's may generate strategic rhetoric in order to generate attention to particular issues, increase membership in their organization, or increase funding for the organization. For example, some organizations purposefully frame international violence in terms ofviolence against women and children (ignoring violence against men) to generate increased contributions and support for their organization (Carpenter, 2007). The description above does not imply that states are only accepting rhetoric manipulation from others without implementing their own manipulative efforts. It is entirely possible and likely that states or other international actors have particular goals in 90 regards to a phenomenon and attempt to manipulate the perception ofothers in order to control the international agenda. Any international actor can be a rhetorical entrepreneur if they engage in strategic use ofrhetoric to manipulate the international agenda. Strategically placing rhetoric to manipulate the international agenda is an important aspect ofhow the agenda works and how non-state actors can influence international outcomes (Keck & Sikkink, 1998; Simmons & Oudraat, 2001, p. 667). Although there are various strategies to manipulate rhetoric based on some knowledge of the real causes and consequences ofthe phenomenon, it is not clear which of these strategies may work best under different circumstances. Instead ofaddressing which strategies work best, which is not apparent from the strategies themselves, the rest ofthis chapter describes how manipulation can occur in rhetorical frame manipulation and the influence ofthese manipulations on the international agenda. In order to have a complete understanding how rhetoric can influence frames we must have some understanding of how actors might manipulate rhetoric to achieve their own goals with the international agenda. This section proceeds with a discussion ofthree strategies for rhetorical manipulation offrame characteristics: manipulation ofthe scope ofphenomena, manipulation between frame characteristics, and manipulation within characteristics. Manipulation ofthe phenomena scope describes changes in the description ofthe phenomena or the data representing the observation. Presenting data with slightly different images or rhetoric can change part ofthe issue frame. Between frame 91 characteristics, manipulation involves changing emphasis in the rhetoric from one ofthe frame characteristics to another (e.g. shifting focus from causes to consequences). Within frame characteristics, manipulation involves changing emphasis in the rhetoric between the content ofa single part ofthe characteristics. For example, emphasizing one cause ofthe phenomenon over another cause. It is important to note that the manipulations described below do not include complete fabrications ofreality. The manipulations are all based on some description ofthe real phenomenon, the causes, or the consequences. They are possible because ofthe uncertainty in our understanding of the real world, described in Chapter II ofthis project. Phenomena Scope Manipulation Manipulation Hypothesis 1: Manipulations ofthe phenomena scope change the audience acceptability offrame characteristics. Frames with some relevance to the observed phenomenon are more likely to be accepted by actors than frames describing fabrications or lies in regards to the phenomenon. Rhetorical entrepreneurs, however, can manipulate the scope ofthe phenomenon in order to manipulate the acceptability offrame characteristics. Manipulation of data or the presentation ofdata can make characteristics seem more or less truthful, making them more or less acceptable to audiences. Rhetorical entrepreneurs can manipulate the scope ofthe phenomena through changes in data presentation. Data presentations depend on time, spatial dimensions, and uncertainty ofthe data. Information and data always involves time as an element of 92 description ofthat data. When we look at descriptive data describing some aspect ofthe social or physical environment, we must define the time as a scope condition ofthe data presented. Rhetorical entrepreneurs may present data at a single point in time, over a year, over ten years, or over a thousand years. Each presentation ofthe data may reveal different information about the trends or the phenomenon. Climate change data, for example, is sometimes manipulated through changing the data time horizon. When climate data are taken for the past 10 to 20 years, scientists point to a cooling trend (Keenlyside, Latif, Jungclaus, Komblueh, & Roeckner, 2008), for which anti-climate change activists use to emphasize their goals of changing the understanding of climate dynamics. On the other hand, when scientists examine the changes in temperature over a span ofa I50-year period, climate data suggests a recent warming trend (Black, 2008). Ifthe data are looked at over hundreds ofthousands of years, the temperature ofthe earth becomes cyclical with cooling and warming periods (Brook, 2008). Different views ofthe same data create different views of the trends for the phenomenon. Manipulating the presentation ofdata changes the acceptability of frame characteristics. In the climate example above, if data are presented over hundreds of thousands ofyears, carbon dioxide, methane, and the temperature ofthe earth all become cyclical. Since humans have been contributing to atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide for only a very short part ofthe presentation, attributing changes in climate to human action becomes less acceptable. It is impossible for changes in the temperature to be 93 caused by humans if one considers temperature changes that occur 100,000 years ago or more. Ifdata are presented based on the past 150 years, the rise in carbon dioxide coincides with the rise in use offossil fuels by humans and the description ofhumans as causes ofthe current increase in carbon dioxide becomes easier to accept. Manipulation ofthe spatial dimension ofpresenting the phenomenon can also influence the audience's perception ofthe phenomena. Similar to changing the period for which data are presented, changing the place where the data were acquired can manipulate the acceptability offrame characteristics. Manipulation ofpresentation on the spatial dimension amounts to limiting presentation to a particular area. Examining climate changes on the North Pole may present different information than climate changes over New York City, or averaging the temperature ofover 7000 10cations?O When describing glacier changes, focusing on a particular glacier can lead to descriptions of glacier expansion (Hewitt, 2005). Examination ofthe average changes of glaciers around the world glacial changes can lead to descriptions of glacial ice thinning (UNEP). If the presentation ofdata suggests glaciers are increasing, it becomes difficult to accept climate temperature increases as a cause because increases in temperature suggest a decrease in glaciers. Therefore, changes in the presentation ofthe phenomenon in terms ofthe spatial dimension also influences the likelihood of acceptance of associated frame characteristics. 20 For a sample ofsuch climate measures see Silver (2008, p. 8). 94 There are other ways to manipulate the presentation ofdata as well. Different measurement tools will create different presentations ofsimilar information. When trying to understand the distribution ofpower in the international system, for example, scholars may use different tools to measure differences in power. Measuring power using coal consumption during before the Second World War may document one type ofpower distribution among states, while measuring power in terms ofpopulation (as militaries depended considerably on population numbers), or nuclear capabilities, may show different descriptions ofthe power distribution. When one takes the data per capita, yet another distribution ofpower among countries may appear. In a more recent example, the Chinese government manipulated the presentation of gold medal winnings at the 2008 Olympics. The Chinese viewed the medal counts by associating the country with the most gold medals as the country in first place, placing the United States second (Economist, 2008). When the data are presented in terms ofthe total number ofmedals, the United States takes first place, while China takes second. Yet, another representation emerges when the data are examined per capita. 21 Given this presentation, the country with the highest value on our scale becomes Jamaica (l.48 medals per capita), followed by Bahrain, Estonia, New Zealand, Slovakia, and Australia. The United States has only 0.09 medals per person and China has only 0.03 medals per 21 A per capita measure ofgold medal count is not an arbitrary measure. Given that a country's population influence the number ofpeople from which athletes are selected, per capita data on medal winnings is advocated by some smaller countries to measure success in the Olympic games. 95 person (Economist, 2008). Clearly, these different measures of Olympic success result in different indications ofthe most successful countries. Since frame characteristics are associated with the phenomenon, the presentation ofthe phenomenon and the data makes the frame characteristics more or less acceptable to audiences. Changing the time or spatial measurement ofthe phenomenon changes the description and thus how the frame characteristics. Manipulation Between Frame Characteristics Manipulation Hypothesis 2: Manipulations between frame characteristics changes the importance ofthe issue on the agenda. Rhetorical entrepreneurs may attempt to manipulate policy outcomes by emphasizing different characteristics ofan issue (causal, consequence, or prescriptive). Since each characteristic may focus on different actors or suggest varying levels of importance, rhetorical entrepreneurs attempt to focus attention on one particular characteristic to influence the importance ofthe issue for states. In the case of climate change, ifthe causal characteristics of a frame focus on large developed nations, and the consequence characteristics focus on negative effects for smaller developing nations, smaller nations have an incentive to reduce climate change and gain protection from the negative effects. Ifthese smaller nations emphasize the negative consequences of climate change in rhetoric propagated in the media, it may be less likely to increase attention to climate change than emphasizing rhetoric blaming larger developed nations for causing climate change. Emphasizing larger nations as 96 causes for climate change, rather than the negative effects on smaller states, increases the attention from the larger states. Whether or not these larger states become actively involved in reducing greenhouse gasses, they must address in someway their responsibility and discuss the climate change issue - placing it on the international agenda or higher on the international agenda. In the above example, the smaller states may either use rhetoric to emphasize their own negative consequences or emphasize blame on larger nations. Rhetoric entrepreneurs emphasize different frame characteristics through media, forums, protests, and other forms ofcommunication. As discussed earlier, the more exposure the rhetoric receives, the more likely it will influence outcomes. In order for rhetoric to develop, however, rhetorical entrepreneurs must present their rhetoric to states or individuals who can accept the rhetoric as their frame. Therefore, actor created rhetoric is an important part of the development ofdominant frames for a particular population. Emphasis on one element ofthe issue frame can change the importance ofthe issue for different states in the international system. By using rhetoric that one particular group ofstates are responsible for a problem, those states generally have a greater chance ofresponding and placing the issue higher on their agenda, whether or not they actually partake in actions to solve the problem. Emphasis between elements of a frame, therefore, has the potential to strategically manipulate frames to increase or decrease 97 attention for different states in the international system depending on the goals ofthe rhetoric entrepreneurs. Because there are multiple characteristics offrames, it is not necessary to fabricate evidence or frame characteristics. In the above example, both the blame on larger countries and the negative consequences to smaller nations may be true representations ofreal causes and consequences ofclimate change. Thus, actors can manipulate agendas by emphasizing different characteristics ofa frame, which are based on the real causes and consequences of a phenomenon. Manipulation Within Frame Characteristics Manipulation Hypothesis 3: Manipulations within frame characteristics changes the acceptability ofprescription characteristics. Frame characteristics also contain within them different potential content, which actors may manipulate to achieve their advocacy goals. Within causal, prescriptive, and consequence characteristics, emphasizing different content in rhetoric can result in changes offrames. Rhetorical entrepreneurs may manipulate the content of each characteristic through emphasis on different variables or different levels ofuncertainty. The sections below discuss different types ofmanipulation that may occur through emphasis within frame characteristics. The first section discusses the use of strategic rhetoric to emphasize different characteristics within frames based on the inherent uncertainty in understanding the real causes and consequences ofphenomena to influence the acceptable prescriptions available. The second section discusses emphasis on 98 different causal pathways followed by a discussion on emphasis of different causes when multiple causes are present. All ofthese manipulations change the acceptability of prescriptions because causes and consequences directly relate to policies. Uncertainty Manipulation Hypothesis 3a: Emphasizing uncertainty increases delay before prescriptive action or increases the likelihood that policies prescribed search for more data and research. Uncertainty is endemic in scientific research because causality cannot be directly observed or proven, but simply inferred (Brady & Seawright, 2004). This inherent uncertainty allows individuals to create multiple interpretations ofthe evidence or to use only information that supports their particular view (Jasanoff, 1995). As any econometrics textbook will attest, models designed to predict the future become increasingly uncertain as projections move further away from the available data. Psychologists also document the difficulty and often inaccuracies of future prediction among political pundits (Tetlock, 2005), highlighting the increased uncertainty as one moves from data to prediction. For example, climate models contain a great deal ofuncertainty as to the potential impact ofC02 emissions on global temperatures (Houghton & IPCC Working Group I, 2001). This uncertainty allows advocates on one side ofthe debate or the other to emphasize extreme possibilities within the range of uncertainty of climate models. Advocates ofclimate change, for example, may emphasize large increases in global temperatures and see changes, while economic 99 advocates may emphasize much smaller changes in temperatures. Both emphases do not contradict the findings of climate scientists, but instead focus on different projections because ofthe large uncertainty ofC02 impacts on the environment. Climate scientists, while trying to be transparent in their estimates, list different scenarios under which their predictions are modeled (Team-6, 2009). These scenarios estimate different level of environmental concern, different levels oftechnological improvement, and different levels of economic development, for example. Rhetoric entrepreneurs may utilize one of the models over others because the model emphasizes particular elements within an issue characteristic. Rhetorical entrepreneurs attempt to manipulate outcomes by emphasizing the uncertainty in scientific research itself or the different levels ofuncertainty for different variables within each frame element. By emphasizing uncertainty within causal characteristics, rhetorical entrepreneurs seek to increase delay in creation and formation ofprescriptive policies. Emphasizing information uncertainty suggests that policies should focus on conducting more scientific research to reduce the uncertainty. In climate change discussions, uncertainty often becomes a point ofcontention because many actors suggest that scientific predictions are too wide without greater certainty. By emphasizing the uncertainty of climate models, rhetorical entrepreneurs attempt to prolong delay before generating policy to deal with the effects ofcarbon in the atmosphere. This delay may also allow advocates against reducing greenhouse gas emissions time to formulate 100 new presentations ofdata and research, manipulation of the phenomenon scope, to back up their own claims on other aspects of a frame. Causal Variables Manipulation Hypothesis 3b: Emphasizing different causal variables changes the acceptability ofprescriptive characteristics. In addition to emphasis on varying levels ofuncertainty, rhetorical entrepreneurs also manipulate outcomes through emphasis on different variables within causal or consequence characteristics. Rhetorical entrepreneurs place emphasis on one causal pathway over another when there are multiple causal pathways that lead to the same outcome, described as equifinality (Goertz & Mahoney, 2005). Equifinality occurs when there are multiple sufficient conditions that may lead to the same consequence. Each pathway emphasizes a different set of intervening variables and processes that occur as the cause influences the effect. Different causal pathways contain different sets of intervening variables that can be emphasized within a frame. By emphasizing different causal pathways, or particular variables within one of the pathways, rhetorical entrepreneurs change the acceptability ofprescriptive policies that address the causal variables. For example, as previously stated, some scholars suggest that environmental degradation could lead to increased interstate conflict (Homer-Dixon, 1994). Environmental pollution, causing a water shortage, could lead to conflict via more than one potential path. In one path, lack ofwater displaces individuals, who become refugees that cross borders and create conflict between 101 neighboring states. On another path, a state with limited water resources may try to extract resources from a neighbor generating increased inter-state conflict. Both pathways begin with water pollution and shortages and end with interstate conflict, but differ on the path from the independent to the dependent variable. Each path suggests different policy solutions, either dealing with mediation between states or dealing with accommodations for a population ofrefugees. Therefore, the existence ofequifinality provides an avenue through which rhetorical entrepreneurs manipulate within frame characteristics to emphasize one or the other causal pathway and change the potential solutions available to the international community. Manipulation may also occur through emphasis on different variables within issue characteristics. This manipulation is possible because almost all phenomena have multiple causes, consequences, and policy prescriptions. Because the world is incredibly complex, we often simplify the number ofcauses, consequences, and policy options (see Gigerenzer, Todd, & Group, 1999; Johnson, 2004). Rhetorical entrepreneurs may emphasize a subset ofthe causes in order to advocate particular blame or solutions. For example, when examining the causes ofclimate change many international advocates focus on the influence ofhuman made carbon emissions in the atmosphere as a primary cause. Other scientists, however, have also emphasized the importance ofcloud cover, sunspots, and other natural factors in determinations ofthe earth's climate. It is true that many factors influence the temperature ofthe Earth and that all the factors simultaneously are at work influencing Earth's temperature. Because ofthe presence ofa 102 large number of causes, rhetorical entrepreneurs emphasize some ofthe causes over others to influence the potential solutions. If advocates successfully define international climate change as primarily the result ofnaturally occurring changes in the sun and other factors, human responsibility becomes limited, in that our actions cannot mitigate changes. On the other hand, ifother advocates successfully frame climate change as a problem primarily resulting from human contribution of carbon to the atmosphere, then the solution lies in a reduction ofC02 emissions.2 2 The discussion ofhow rhetoric influences frame preceded this section on manipulation strategies. The important point here is how manipulation takes place through the presence ofmultiple causes, consequences, and prescriptions within each issue characteristic. The presence ofuncertainty, equifinality, and multiple-causes allows a variety of rhetoric to emerge that maintains consistency with available data and information. The rhetoric may not reflect the scientific consensus ofcausal factors, pathways, or average values in cases ofuncertainty, but the rhetoric may still accurately present descriptions of the phenomenon within the limits of our knowledge. Frames that are not based on some real information, fabrications, may become part offrame characteristics, but would be difficult to sustain under some scrutiny. Therefore, frames will not usually consist of fabrications or lies disassociated from current knowledge. 22 This logic closely resembles Stone's (1989) understanding ofcausal stories and manipulation between natural causes and human-made causes. 103 CONCLUSIONS This chapter began with the "why" questions about changes in the international agenda. Why does the international agenda change? Why do issues emerge onto the agenda at some times and not others? Why do the frames for issues change? The chapter then moved through two logics ofexplanation: one that depends on material forces and one that depends on non-material forces. Material causes of changes in the agenda come from realist theories in international relations that describe the importance ofsecurity and relative power distributions. Because security is the most important motivator, non-security issues are only likely to appear on the agenda when state security is provided by another state. The provision ofsecurity differs depending on the distribution of international power. Unipolar systems are likely to provide the greatest security for states, bipolar systems may provide some security, and multipolar systems are least likely to provide security. Therefore, non-security issues are most likely to emerge in unipolar systems and least likely under multipolar systems. Non-material influences on issue attention involve rhetorical descriptions ofstates as causes or consequences. Rhetoric is an important part of changing the international agenda through changing the frame characteristics of an issue. When states are rhetorically placed as part ofthe blame ofthe phenomenon or the consequences ofthe phenomenon, they are more likely to pay attention to the issue. Therefore, the issue increases in importance on the international agenda for those states. Sometimes states do 104 not wish to attend to an issue, but must pay some lip service because rhetorical entrepreneurs describe the states as part ofthe cause or consequence characteristics. In addition, describing more imminent effects or larger effects can increase attention to issues by creating a greater sense of crisis and emphasis on the short-term. By describing phenomena in terms ofshort-term large-scale consequences, the issue is more likely to become of greater importance on the international agenda. In addition to influencing issue attention, material and non-material variables can also influence the frame. Material variables, in terms ofpolarity, are most likely to influence the degree of contestation over issue frames. Under unipolar systems, contestation is likely to be non-existent or very short lived because ofthe dominating power ofthe hegemon. Similar to a chain-store game theoretic model, actors are not likely to challenge the dominant interpretation of an issue. Bipolar systems prolong contestation because any small change in power distribution between the two large powers can be a great advantage to one ofthe states. Since competition between these states is intense, the countries are likely to engage in competition for longer periods over control offrames on the international agenda. Under multipolar systems, alliance patterns suggest short-lived attention to issues but some competition between the states over power. Therefore, we expect contestation to be high, but shorter than in the bipolar system. Non-material factors also influence the content offrames on the agenda. The exposure ofrhetoric, the content ofrhetoric, and the particular manipulation strategies 105 implemented can influence the changes in frames or the acceptability offrames. Exposure ofrhetoric to a wide audience or those who control a state through the media, international forums, and academic sources can increase the influence ofrhetoric to change the frame of an issue. The more exposure and repetition a similar rhetoric achieves, the more likely it can influence the international agenda. Focusing events often increase international exposure when linked with particular rhetoric and issues. These large-scale, rare events alone do not attract interest to an issue and change the agenda. Only when rhetorical entrepreneurs link these events to issues through rhetoric can the events influence the international agenda. In addition to the importance ofinternational exposure for the rhetoric, the content ofthe rhetoric may also affect the tendency to adopt the rhetoric as part ofa frame characteristic. Rhetoric that is more complete and that is associated with a larger discourse creates greater salience and a greater chance of acceptance by audiences. Rhetoric that leaves few questions unanswered creates a more complete story that becomes more believable by audiences, which generates a higher resonance. In addition, rhetoric connected to an audience's particular culture or broader understanding ofthe world (a larger discourse) can increase the resonance between the audience and the rhetoric. These factors help to increase the ability ofrhetoric to inf1uence the international agenda and frames. Rhetorical entrepreneurs act as strategic actors who use rhetoric to influence international outcomes through the influence offrames and agendas. Rhetorical 106 entrepreneurs manipulate frames through scope conditions, different issue characteristics, or different parts within an issue characteristic. Changing scope conditions changes the acceptability or believability of other issue characteristics because they become more or less connected with what appears to be the phenomenon data. Emphasis on different issue characteristics may change emphasis from one characteristic to another, such as from blame to consequences. By emphasizing one or the other, states associated with the emphasized characteristics are more likely to attend to the issue. Finally, emphasis on different parts within issue characteristics changes the acceptability of prescriptive characteristics. Since prescriptions are associated with causes and consequences, manipulating emphasis on the causes and consequences ofthe frame influences the acceptability ofprescriptive characteristics for the issue. This chapter was organized around the two primary influences over international agendas: material and non-material. Although this is a useful way to organize the theories because it resembles the primary theoretical distinctions made in international relations theory, this conclusion and the following chapters takes a slightly different approach. Chapters IV and V present an empirical analysis ofthe causes of agenda changes in the case of international attempts to address whaling. These two chapters together analyze the influences of material and non-material variables over the changes in frames and issue attention for the case of international efforts to address whaling. This current chapter did not present a test ofthe theories or a definitive answer as to whether agendas change due to material or non-material variables. The chapter sets up potential 107 tests ofthe different causes of agendas through the development ofhypotheses. The following two chapters explicitly test these hypotheses. Chapter IV analyzes the influences on issue attention based on material and non-material factors that resembles the organization in this concluding section. Chapter V analyzes the influences on frames based on material and non-material factors. 108 CHAPTER IV INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS TO ADDRESS WHALING: ISSUE EMERGENCE There are two factors that describe changes in the international agenda, as discussed in Chapter II. The fIrst concerns international attention to the issue. The international agenda consists ofissues that move up and down or on and offthe international agenda. The second factor ofthe international agenda is the content ofthe issue frame. The frame describes the relationship between the phenomenon and international actors. Chapter IV analyzes the fIrst ofthese two parts to changes in the international agenda regarding attention toward whaling. Chapter V analyzes changes in issue frames for the same case. Each chapter analyzes the relevant hypotheses from Chapter III that relate to changes in issue placement on the agenda or changes in the frame. This chapter fIrst describes the changes in attention to whaling by states, signifying movement up or down and on or offthe international agenda. Subsequently, the chapter analyzes the material and non-material hypotheses relevant to explaining changes in the dependent variable ofattention changes. These hypotheses describe polarity and the importance ofsecurity issues over others on the agenda, and rhetoric involving blaming, victimization, timing, and the magnitude ofconsequences ofthe phenomenon. The chapter demonstrates for the case ofwhaling that security issues dominate non-sec.urity issues most in multipolar systems and to a lesser extent in bipolar and unipolar systems. In addition, the chapter shows that the evidence ofnon-material 109 rhetorical influences ofblame and victimization on agendas does not support the hypotheses. Evidence ofrhetorical crisis making in terms ofthe timing and magnitude of the effects are also unsupported by this research. INTERNATIONAL ATTENTION TO WHALING Since the earliest days ofwhaling, the practice has involved a large number of actors including individuals, local municipalities, state governments, corporations, non governmental organizations, and advocacy groups, as well as international governmental organizations. This chapter describes the changes of attention to whaling and analyzes the causes of changes in terms ofthe hypotheses developed earlier. Whaling appeared on and offthe agenda in two primary stages. The first stage was characterized by sporadic attention to international whaling where the issue appeared on and offthe agenda from the 1500s through 1944. The second stage ofwhaling from 1945 through the present has been characterized by a long-term sustained interest in whaling and greater depth ofconcern and greater number of states concerned with the issue. The sustained attention to whaling continues on the international agenda today. Within each broader stage, more subtle changes in international attention occur as the issue moves on and offthe agenda during the first stage, and as the specific country attention changes as well as the depth of attention in the second stage. The chapter seeks to answer a number of questions regarding changes between each stage ofthe international environmental agenda for whaling. Why did states become involved and interested in whaling sporadically during the first stage? What 110 made states gain and lose interest in whaling during this period? Why did states increase attention in the second stage and spread to a large number ofstates with increasing depth? The rest ofthis chapter answers these questions through close examination ofthe whaling industry from approximately 1500 through today. A number ofimportant causal factors influence the changes in the international agenda. Primarily, the analysis shows the influence ofmaterial factors on the changes that occurred in attention to whaling, while the hypotheses describing non-material influences receive mixed support. Lack of support does not mean the hypotheses are incorrect, but the analysis does not provide enough evidence to support these hypotheses. Although this section describes the character ofthe new frame in two static stages with more nuanced changes within each stage, the primary interest ofthis dissertation is to explain the changes in the agenda. The international agenda is dynamic and changing, but the categories provide useful reference points to document important changes that occurred in international attention. Although this dissertation groups the stages into boxes, these boxes often merge and flow from one to another often blurring the borders between these stages. ONAND OFF THE AGENDA (1500 - 1944) In order to understand the appearance ofwhaling on the agenda, it is first important to understand the basic history ofwhaling beginning approximately in the 1500's. The earliest practice ofhunting whales most likely occurred with the Norse 111 populations; however, scholars know very little about the history ofthe Norse and their relationship with whales. The best indications ofwhaling during this time come from documents describing family feuds over whale carcasses rather than descriptions ofthe hunt (Ellis, 1991,40). Some scholars speculate that the Norse engaged in whaling because the waters frequented by Norse were highly populated with a number ofwhale species as well as other obscure passages in historical texts referring to creatures and words that may be references to whales (Ellis, 1991,39). The subsequent Basque whaling, however, is better documented and where most accounts of systematic whaling begin. The Basque population, generally occupying areas along the Bay ofBiscay in what is now France and Spain, most likely were the earliest modem and systematic whalers (Ellis, 1991,42). Evidence has been found ofwhale hunts on several Basque communities found along the coast (Ellis, 1991,46). In addition to hunting along the coasts, the Basques eventually ventured further out from the Bay ofBiscay as the Right whale disappeared from the Bay ofBiscay.23 Whaling continued for the Basques as they moved north and out ofthe Bay ofBiscay to areas of Labrador, Newfoundland, Ireland, Iceland, Greenland, and Spitsbergen (Ellis, 1991,47). Although not a clear end to the Basque whaling, whaling began to blend with British and Dutch whaling in the late 16 th 23 It is not clear whether the whales were driven from the Bay ofBiscay by the Basques or hunted to decreased numbers. Markam (1882) suggests that only a few whales were taken each year by each village and could not force the whales into extinction. 112 Century after the destruction ofthe Spanish Armada meant little protection for fishing vessels far from coastal waters. During the earliest encounters with whales, whalers engaged mostly along the coastal waters oftheir homes. Most ofthe villages and communities along the coastal waters were autonomous regions, and there was little intervention in the whaling practices by the Spanish or other larger empires. 24 This illustrates the lack ofbroader international attention to whaling during the early years of Basque whaling in the first stage. In addition, the Basque whaling practices suggested a desire to exploit the resources as much as possible as they chased the whales out oftheir own safer community in the Bay ofBiscay into the larger open ocean. Although later unprotected by the Spanish, the Basque whalers continued to take whales in cooperation with vessels from Dutch and British communities. 25 Government interests primarily involved religion and warfare before the Peace ofWestphalia in 1648 at the end ofThirty Years War. These empires, generally fighting for control over the religion in Europe, did not attend to whaling as fighting generally dominated their interests. After 1648, we can begin to discuss the potential emergence ofwhaling on the international agenda more easily because there are for the first time, sovereign nation- states in the world system. Between the 1i h century and the early 20 th century involves 24 The governing bodies during this time in Europe were not yet considered sovereign states as generally established by the Peace of Westphalia. Therefore, the term empire is used to describe the governments. 25 Although this project references the Dutch and the British as the location from which whalers came from, it does not imply that the governments were involved in whaling. 113 an international interest in whaling only in times where governments came in conflict over whaling in the same areas, or where they conflicted in war and wished to control a potentially important resource for combat. These introductions of whaling onto the international agenda appears at sporadic intervals occurring when whaling appears as a cause of security problems for states, while diminishing when conflict demands attention away from whaling. One ofthe earliest occasions where whaling emerged onto the international agenda occurred over dominance ofthe seas around Spitsbergen, an island in the north Atlantic between Greenland and Europe. The conflict occurred between the emerging British and Dutch whalers after the decline ofBasque whaling. Leading into the 1600s, Basque whaling declined due to the loss ofprotection by the defeat ofthe Spanish Armada. The loss ofthe Spanish Armada in 1588 meant that Basque vessels could not enjoy protection far from shore, which made whaling in the Northern Atlantic much more treacherous. The end ofthe Basque dominance in whaling, however, meant the emergence ofBritish and Dutch whalers around the seas in the Northern Atlantic, including around the island of Spitsbergen. The British commissioned the Muscovy Company to begin whaling the area in the North Atlantic that fIrst met with failure by the ice and diffIcult conditions there (Ellis, 1991, 57). Despite these initial losses, the British sent more vessels to the area with Basque whalers and harpooners in their employ. These vessels, despite competition from other vessels ofDutch and German origin were able to secure enough whale to fill their 114 cargo areas (Ellis, 1991, 57). Competition grew between the Dutch and British whalers as both sides' governments claimed monopoly rights over the seas around Spitsbergen Island. Conflicts erupted between the sides, where ships were destroyed, and whale oil, bone, and baleen were stolen initially by the British and subsequently by the Dutch around 1615 (Francis, 1990, pp. 34-35). Increasingly conflictual, the British and the Dutch began arming their whaling vessels or sending warships to protect their vessels while operating around the seas. Given the difficulty ofwhaling while at perpetual conflict, the British and the Dutch negotiated an agreement to divide the fisheries around Spitsbergen, giving the Dutch the northern areas and the British the southern ones (Ellis, 1991,57; Francis, 1990, p. 35). After the agreement, the British and the Dutch appeared to have discontinued their discussions on whaling. Later, the British and the Americans nearly clashed over whaling as well, but the American Revolutionary War interrupted interest in whaling and prevented its emergence on the international agenda. During the 1700's, the British continued to expand their whaling efforts, as did the American colonists. The American and British whalers generally maintained separate areas ofoperation, but the Americans gradually encroached on the British whaling grounds (Francis, 1990, p. 61). The British, fearful of increased American whaling overtaking the British fleet, issued new rules in 1765 for all whalers, which caused some inconvenience for the Americans and kept them away from the British grounds (Francis, 1990, p. 61). Because the American colonists were under British rule, they were subject to British laws involving whale catch. This does not 115 clearly constitute whaling entering the international agenda because America was technically part ofthe British Empire, and the countries were not involved in negotiations or attention toward whaling at this time, although whaling clearly had the attention ofthe British government. During the American Revolutionary War, the whaling ships from the American colonists were converted for war-fighting against the British, and whaling by the Americans stopped for approximately 3 years (Francis, 1990, pp. 62-63). The British whaling effort fell off dramatically as well, because the ships were needed for logistics in carrying troops and supplies to aid the British armies fighting on the American continent (Ellis, 1991, 71). By our definition ofthe international agenda, whaling could not technically appear on the international agenda because the American colonies were subject to the British authorities. Therefore, it became an important domestic issue for the British, but did not appear on the international agenda. Ifthe American colony were a state, whaling would not have appeared on the international agenda regardless because ofthe relative increase in importance ofwar between the British and the American colonists. The security concerns ofthese states outweighed the importance ofwhaling. Through subsequent years ofthe French Revolution, French hostilities against Britain, and the war of 1812, whalers largely operated without interference from governments. They faced many problems whaling under the conditions ofconflict between these nations. Whalers often had to move their operations to avoid conflict and 116 sometimes suffered losses to their fleets at the hands ofthe warring countries (Francis, 1990, ch. 4). After World War I, whaling again appeared on the international agenda, beginning with a conference between the United States and Canada as part of a conference on American-Canadian Fisheries in 1918 (Birnie, 1985, p. 105). The conference on fisheries stated only that an international conference should be established after the end of World War I (1918, p. 39). Whaling was not an explicit topic ofthe conference, but appeared in a statement as part ofdiscussions on cooperation over fisheries on the American-Canadian border. The next tinle whaling appeared on the agenda occurred during the earliest conferences specifically about whaling in the 1930s. Although state attention to whaling previously consisted of more muted state action, state attention in the early 1930s consisted ofthe first whaling conferences and the creation of international treaties. This demonstrates greater depth of attention than earlier. Discussions in 1929 in the League of Nations involved discussions over regulating all international resources, but in particular to whaling, which had no international treaty at the time (Birnie, 1985, p. 111). In 1931, the Convention for the Regulation ofWhaling opened for signature signifying a deeper attention to whaling in the international community. Ratified by the required eight states, the treaty entered into force in 1935. The total number ofsignatories to the treaty amounted to 26 states, showing a significant increase in countries interested in whaling before WWI, where no multilateral treaty was created, and only a limited number of 117 states paid attention to whaling. The 1931 Convention was followed by the 1937 International Convention for the Regulation of Whaling, a meeting to institute a protocol in 1938,26 and an informal meeting in 1939 (Birnie, 1985, pp. 126-127). The succession of several conferences and meetings on whaling confirm the importance ofthe issue on the international agenda from 1930 until the beginning of World War II. World War II resulted in no state attention to whaling between the period of 1939 and 1945. Not only did states lose interest in whaling because ofthe increased fighting in Europe and in Asia, but the number ofwhalers in operation also declined. In the 1941- 1942 season, no whalers were able to partake in high seas whaling because ofthe war (Birnie, 1985). States conducted no international conferences or attention to whaling during the war. Therefore, whaling moved offthe agenda in favor of security concerns involving World War II. Whaling again became part ofthe international agenda toward the end ofthe war with a conference beginning in 1944. Whaling generally appeared sporadically during the first stage between the earliest whaling in 1500 through 1944. Although this is a long period ofhistory, much of the time, whalers operated autonomously from governments. In a few instances, whaling took a place on the international agenda. This occurred primarily in 1615 between the Dutch and the British and between the British and the Americans around 1765. These two cases of issue emergence suggest a very limited attention to whaling before 1930. 26 The 1937 agreement was extended by the protocol in 1938. Many provisions in the 1937 agreement and the protocol limit their applicability to the next immediate whaling season. These provisions expire without subsequent agreement, not formally established again until 1944. 118 From 1930 to 1939, states increased attention to whaling by more states and increased depth by international treaty formation. SUSTAINED INTERESTIN WHALING (1944 - 2008) From 1944 to 1970, whaling became a more permanent part ofthe international agenda with the creation ofthe International Whaling Commission and yearly meetings from 1949 through today. The fIrst signifIcant meeting after the importance ofwhaling waned in World War II occurred in 1944 between Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, South Africa, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Eire (Ireland) (Birnie, 1985, p. 131). Subsequent agreements extended after the war and set up the International Whaling Commission (IWC) in 1946. These early institutions set up an institutional structure that allowed states to attend to the whaling after the end of World War II, if states wished. Since there were provisions to allow states to enter the IWC or leave the IWC with proper notice, the number ofstates maintaining a membership in the IWC makes a good proxy for attention to whaling after 1946. MATERIAL HYPOTHESES The primary material hypotheses associated with issue attention describe the relative importance of security issues over other issues. This initial hypothesis is further developed into three parts based on the polarity in the international system. The following sections describe these hypotheses briefly, review the changes in the international agenda, and then evaluate the hypotheses based on changes relative 119 importance between security and non-security issues taking into account international polarity. Figure 2 International Whaling Commission Membership 60 --- -.-- -.-- -- - - - . 50 .L.._ _. ?..........??....-...........?_.--_._.....?.................- --..............................?_ --.?...- - - ---?.-.?.. -.-.....?-..- ..-.- -.---- ,r- 30 --------?----???-?-?????????-?--??----?-----------1- 70-'------------------------------------c~- 80 20 10 .;.., . 0 ????..?r???????? ????????????????v?????v?????,?????? !Xl 0 N "" !Xl !Xl !Xl 0'1 0'1 01 0'1 01 0 0 0 0 0 O'l O'l O'l O'l 01 01 01 01 O'l CJ\ O'l O'l 0'1 O'l O'l O'l O'l 0'1 O'l 01 0'1 0'1 O'l O'l CJ\ O'l 0 0 0 0 0 .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... N N N N N Note. Data taken from the International Whaling Commission. In addition to a sustained interest in whaling from 1944, IWC membership (Figure 2) shows two clear periods ofmembership expansion. From approximately 1974 to 1982 and again from 2000 to 2008, the number ofcountries interested in whaling increased as membership in the IWC increased during these years. This signifies an increase in attention to whaling as part ofthe international agenda. 120 Table 3. Summary ofAgenda Changes for Whaling Stage Years International Agenda 1930 - 1939 1500s - 1930 Stage 1 On and Offthe Agenda Sporadic and Short-lived Attention 1615, attention by British and Dutch 1765, near-attention by British and Americans 1918, American-Canadian Fisheries Conference 1929, League ofNations interest in marine resources ; ;...............................................................................................?..?...................................................................................................................................... Increased Attention by Whaling States 1931 and 1937 Conventions on Regulation of Whaling 1938 Protocol Meeting 1939 Informal Conference 1939-1944 (WWII) No Attention to Whaling 1944 - 1974 Stage 2 Sustained Attention Sustained Attention by Whaling and Ex-Whaling States Yearly conferences and the IWC from 1946 ;???:???:=?????:?????..???????..? ???????.. ??1? :??............... . . 1974 - 2000 Sustained Attention by Whaling, Ex-Whaling, and Non-Whaling States Increase in membership until 1982 Moratorium :.................................................................................. . . 2000 - 2008 Whaling Interest Expansion Increase membership nations from 2000 To reiterate, there are generally two stages ofwhaling on the international agenda with several transitions during these stages (summarized in Table 3). In the first stage, whaling appeared on and offthe agenda several times. The period is characterized by non-sustained interest in the international agenda by a small number ofstates in the international system. Between 1500 and 1930, there are only four cases of appearance on the international agenda. Between 1930 and 1939, there is increased attention in whaling characterized by greater depth of attention and the creation of international conferences 121 and treaties. During World War II, states paid no attention to whaling. The second stage begins at the end ofWorld War II and continues to today where there is a sustained interest in whaling, with two changes in attention when the number of states interested in whaling expands. The expansion occurs once beginning in 1974 and again beginning in 2000. Since this project attempts to understand the causes ofthe changes in the international agenda, the changes described here in the attention to whaling over time are evaluated by examining the hypotheses relevant to changes ofinternational issue attention in the next section. SECURITYISSUES DOMINATE THE INTERNATIONAL AGENDA Material Hypothesis 1: Security issues are more important on the agenda and are more likely to emerge onto the agenda than economic issues or other issues on the international agenda. The primary hypothesis regarding material influences on agenda describes the importance of security issues over other issues on the international agenda. Although this study is not a comparative analysis, where we could compare security issues to non security issues and determine the relative importance, we can still examine whether our case is consistent with the emergence ofsecurity issues on the agenda. Security issues should be more likely to emerge on the international agenda and take the place of an environmental issue, such as whaling. When whaling appears as a security threat, we expect whaling to become part ofthe international agenda. When the issue is no longer a security threat, we expect whaling to become less important or move offthe international 122 agenda. In a unipolar system, we expect security to be less of a concern for states based on hegemonic stability theory. In unipolar systems, therefore, we expect that whaling might appear on the international agenda more frequently or higher because security is less of a concern. In bipolar systems, we expect security to be a greater concern given the rivalry between the two large powers. Therefore, we expect less attention to whaling than to other security issues. Finally, in multipolar systems, security is the greatest concern because of multiple large powers and changing alliances. We expect in the multipolar system that whaling would rarely appears on the international agenda and security issues would overtake whaling frequently. As described in the first section ofthis chapter summarized in Table 3, there are two stages of the agenda in regards to whaling. The first stage is characterized by whaling moving on and offthe international agenda, while the second stage is characterized by sustained attention. More subtle changes occur within each stage in regards to the depth ofattention and the number of states attending to the issue. To determine the application ofthe hypotheses described above, this section examines the extent to which polarity variables coincide with the international agenda and how well changes in polarity correlate with changes in the international agenda. Between the 1500s and 1945, multipolarity dominates the international system. 27 Although different states change relative power positions during this time, multipolarity 27 Polarity information is all taken from Thompson (1986) unless otherwise noted in the text or citations. 123 persists for most ofthis period. From approximately 1945 to 1991, the international system is characterized by bipolarity with the Untied States and the Soviet Union as the two primary global powers. After 1991, with the collapse ofthe Soviet Union and the destruction ofthe Berlin Wall, scholars sometimes have classified the international system as a unipolar system with the United States as the only global power (Kapstein & Mastanduno, 1999; Mastanduno, 1997; Wohlforth, 1999). Table 4 provides a summary ofpolarity during the periods of interest for this project in comparison to the stages ofthe agenda in regards to whaling. Table 4. World Power Polarity and the International Agenda Stage Years International Agenda Polarity 1500 - 1930 Sporadic and Short-lived Attention;~~tiPOlar Stage 1 ..........................." ..,............" ........................." .......................,.........................................,....? On and Off 1930 - 1939 Increased Attention by Whaling Sta ltipolar ........,.................................... ................ the Agenda 1939-1944 No Attention to Whaling Multipolar (WWII) .,.,..... ..",.........,..................................... 1944 - 1974 Sustained Attention by Whaling and Ex- Bipolar Stage 2 Whaling States ." ....................,..........,.........."............................. Sustained 1974 -2000 Sustained Attention by Whaling, Ex- Bipolar and Attention Whaling, and Non-Whaling States Unipolar ............ 2000 - 2008 Whaling Interest Expansion Unipolar Note. Polanty mformatlOn taken from Thompson (1986). During the first stage ofthe agenda, whaling appeared on the agenda sporadically and for short time periods. Generally, during this time, the attention to whaling was relatively shallow and bilateral. Only during the time from 1930 to 1939 did states begin to take a deeper and multilateral interest in whaling. This time is also characterized as a 124 multipolar system. The rare and the sporadic short-lived attention suggest that the data are consistent with the material hypotheses. When the attention to whaling on the agenda shifts from stage 1 to stage 2, where sustained international attention and a deeper attention to whaling begins, the system changes from a multipolar system to a bipolar system. This is also consistent with the hypotheses because changes in polarity correspond to changes in the international agenda. Bipolar and unipolar systems make it more likely that a non-security issue gains attention from states. Although unipolarity creates the conditions most likely for non-security issues to emerge on the agenda, bipolarity also provides space for non-security issues because ofsecurity provided within the global powers' spheres ofinfluence. Materialist conditions may account for the increased attention in 2000 after the system changed from a bipolar to a unipolar one, where states joining may not have a need for security concerns and could attend to non security issues such as whaling. The primary hypothesis for materialist factors also suggests that security will dominate the agenda overall and take precedence over non-security issues. Based on a broader look at the international agenda for whaling, it is clear that at least in one period, the security concerns for states took whaling offthe agenda in favor of security issues. In the 1930's, when states developed a deeper and increasing attentiveness to whaling, the Second World War interrupted this trend and took whaling offthe agenda until the end of the war. Therefore, this shows a time where security trumped a non-security issue on the international agenda, which the materialist hypothesis suggests. 125 The materialist accounts fail to explain several aspects ofchanges in the international agenda, however. Materialist variables fail to explain why, beginning in the 1930s, states took a deeper interest in whaling and began toward a sustained interest that eventually developed after the Second World War. Because this occurred during a multipolar system, we would expect attention to remain short lived and shallow as interest had been before 1930. In addition, materialist conditions fail to explain the expansion of interest in whaling during the 1970s when polarity does not shift correspondingly with the agenda. Overall, materialism can account for some ofthe variation observed on the dependent variable in terms of state attention to issues, but not all the variation. Thus, materials conditions, or those based on realist logic provide a relatively good explanation for changes in the international agenda, but fail to explain all the changes seen in international attention. NON-MATERIAL HYPOTHESES There are three primary hypotheses involving non-material variables that may cause changes in issue attention on the international agenda. These non-material hypotheses involve the use of rhetoric to influence the attention of states for whaling. Blame, victimization, and descriptions ofthe timing and magnitude of effects ofthe phenomenon can influence attention to issues in the international agenda. These three hypotheses are described briefly below in addition to reviewing changes in the international agenda before evaluating whether each hypothesis explains the changes in 126 the agenda. The case study does not explain all aspects ofchanges in whaling, but focuses exclusively on information relevant to the hypotheses tested. NAMING AND BLAMING Non-material Hypothesis 1: Rhetoric that emphasizes states as the perpetrators makes those states more likely to attend to the issue, increasing the chances for the issue to emerge onto the international agenda or increase its position on the agenda. Ifrhetoric changes from identification ofnon-states to states as the perpetrators of whaling, we would expect increased attention from states. Whaling would become part ofthe agenda or ofincreased importance when the rhetoric places blame on states. As discussed earlier, there are two primary stages ofthe international agenda for whaling. The first stage has limited and sporadic attention, while the second stage has sustained attention to whaling and an increasing number ofstates and depth ofattention. We expect whaling to increase in attention after a period ofrhetoric describing states as the cause ofwhaling making them directly part ofthe issue frame. During the earliest whaling periods, there is little rhetoric from the early 1500s to 1900 describing the causes of whaling destruction as blamed on states. However, it is instructive to examine briefly some descriptions ofthe causes ofwhale changes before the 1920s, which is discussed below when blame on states increased. Generally, during , these early years, humans were not considered an important cause ofchanges for marine lif~.Although there is little research on whales in particular during these early years, some information on fisheries provides a proxy for how society related to marine life. 127 United States and Britain created a group ofscientists in 1864 to examine the population and effects ofhuman action on fish in the oceans. In particular, questions as to whether certain types offishing, such as bottom trawling, where fishers drag nets along the ocean floor, reduced fish populations. The results ofthese studies suggested that humans were not a cause of fishery population declines and influence was negligible. The scientific commission concluded that the effects ofhuman fishing were not significant compared to the effects ofpredatory species in the oceans (luda, 1996, p. 21). Continued scientific inquiry by the United States attempted to increase information about the quantity offish-stocks in the oceans. Often these studies suggested the need for greater data on fisheries, but some also commented on the decline offish stocks in specific areas (luda, 1996). Because ofthe uncertainty in these studies and the number of somewhat contradictory studies presented - fish stocks in one region declined but not in another (luda, 1996, p. 29) - scientific information presented during these early years on fishing were uncertain or showing negligible influence ofhumans on fish stocks. Although this does not apply directly to whales because the studies did not include whales, the information provides some sense ofhow society viewed ocean life generally. Most reports did not attribute lower fish stocks to human consumption. When reports attributed lower fish stocks to human consumption, the reports also described the high uncertainty and the need for more data. Given the early perception associating non-human activity with the decimation of ocean life, increasing blame on states presents a clear change in the blame for whaling 128 population declines in rhetoric. The primary states involved in whaling in 1939 at a conference for whaling included Germany, Britain, Japan, Norway, and the United States with Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, and South Africa as observers (Ellis, 1991, p. 388). These states constitute the states that had an interest in whaling at the beginning ofthe transition to the second stage. In 1944, the beginning of sustained international attention to whaling began with a Conference by Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and the United States (Birnie, 1985, p. 131). Evidence of increasing rhetorical blame for states before the increase in attention by these nations suggests a possible connection between the blame and attention to whaling. Evidence ofrhetoric blame is developed through an examination ofnews articles from the New York Times and Google News Search. New York Times archives searches through the earliest printed newspapers headlines from 1851. Google News covers years and newspapers authorized by news media owners. There is no indication from Google on their coverage, although when searching for news, coverage extends back into the 1800's. As an example, searching "New Zealand" and "Whaling," between 1840 and 1850, generates results from the New York Times, The New Zealand Gazette and Wellington Spectator, the New Zealand Spectator, Nelson Examiner, The Courier, Sydney Morning Herald, and others. Although coverage depends on the cooperation of newspaper companies, it appears fairly wide for the period under consideration in this study. The searches used for both the New York Times and Google News look for articles that describe whaling with the country associating the country with whaling ----------_..- ---_._._.- 129 actions. This serves as only a proxy measurement for blame. The data are available in the appendix. Beginning in approximately 1880, the causes of whaling began to shift from companies and individuals to states. Before this year, newspapers often reported catch and oil produced attributed to companies and cities that had large numbers of whalers. After 1880, however, a larger percentage of whaling articles began to describe whale catches along side specific country names rather than the companies who operated the vessels. Figure 3 illustrates that the newspapers reported country names associated with whaling more beginning in the 1880's. The large increase in countries described in the 1860 consists solely of descriptions of "America" and whaling, while later increases contain multiple country names. The increase in rhetoric associating "America" with whaling is an outlier resulting from the American Civil War ending in 1865. The large increase in "America" as part ofthe rhetoric most likely occurred because of a strong northern emphasis on a central government during the Civil War. One peak of blame for states occurred in 1910 (3 of 12), 20 years before interest in whaling began to increase. This peak amounts to 25% ofthe whaling articles published during this time. This evidence is not decisive, but provides some indication that blame increased for states leading into the changes in international attention to whaling. For example, in 1854 a report ofthe arrival ofwhaling vessels blends the rhetoric between states and local governments. The article describes the arrival of whalers from New-Bedford along side descriptions of arrivals of ships from Japan 130 ("George Law," 1854). The rhetoric changes during the late l800s and early 1900s to one that references only countries. In 1903, rhetoric in the newspaper compares sizes of whaling industries between Newfoundland, the United States, and Great Britain ("Whaling fleet ofthe banks," 1903). This rhetoric becomes greater again as articles increase their use of states as the proxy for whalers. In 1912, an article describes the potential for international regulation because of"the slaughter ofwhales by the Canadians, the Japanese, and Others" ("Closed season for whales," 1912). Figure 3. States andW~9lingin_th_e_M_e_w__}';_o_r_k_T_'_?m_e_s _ ---_._--_._-_._-------_._ ... _----_.,..--~ -+--+------------ 20.00% 30.00% 10.00%? --- 15.00% 25.00% -j---+----t----------..,.---- 5.00% +--+--------t-------"I'----------------------------; 0.00% 1.------"----.-- ,--'---,---..L--,----,---,----c------,-------,-------,------r---,----,-------,------,---i 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 35.00% -j-----+-+------ 40.00"/0 -j--_---j'!--'"LLL .---"--'l"-L.:::I ----c 45.00% T-------- - -- -.-..---- ---.-----.-. . -.-.-.-.---- -.- . Note. N = 371. More specifically, we can examine the extent to which media described specific states before changes in whaling attention by those states. Google News Search generates a list and count of all news articles given a specific search term, including a timeline ofthe articles. For the purpose ofthis project, the search terms consist of 131 "whaling" and the country name for each two-year period. Figure 4 shows Sparklines for the countries ofinterest between the years 1920 and 1946 in two-year intervals. 28 The countries are arranged in an order to illustrate commonalities among the peaks in news articles mentioned in particular years. The peaks for the countries near the top ofthe figure occur in 1928, while peaks for countries at the bottom occur between 1936 and 1938. Figure 4. Country Specific Blame Sparklines (1920-1946,2 year intervals) Country Sparkline (1920 - 1946) Peak (year) Avg/year (n) .....Q.~~~~~~;>~=??????~????~?}~.5???f.}.~~.~~.????????.?????~.~;~.I~~9.J)?????? Australia???/~"_---.lI.?O??~J~L~~(???) New Zealand.//"'??,?,~~Q?~~1J4~QO??} Britain.. . .. ...??O?~~2J~:7(4~?) C s anahda Af ..<;~:.~~~..~.-.-/ 3373?(J992268?????)~?~7{~?~?). outnca:-:-'?~?:?~1.Jg~JQ?? g~E~~Y.,,//'--"'???(L?}~1.J4~4(}?42 ~~P~?.?~(}?}~}}?~9(4}?2 Ireland???.?/~..??7~::..~17 (1938) 4.3 (111) Note. Data compiled by author from Google News Search as described in the text. 'Canada peaked in 1926, but the number ofarticles remained the same for the following two-year period at 37 in 1928. Figure 4 indicates that New Zealand, Australia, Norway, the US, Canada, and Britain were associated with whaling to a greater extend peaking around 1928. In 1944, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, South Africa, and Britain all showed increased 28 Sparklines are small graphs in order to present data side-by-side without placing the data in one graph where information may be obscured and the Y-axis may vary considerably. See Tufte (2006) for more information on Sparklines. 132 interest in whaling at the end ofthe war and as a start to sustained interest thereafter. All ofthese states show peaks around 1928, suggesting a potential relationship between previous blame ofwhaling and the increased interest later on. Although the US did not participate in the 1944 conference, the US participated deeply in whaling after 1944 as part ofthe whaling agreement in 1946. South Africa shows a less pronounced peak blame for whaling as the general number ofreferences for whaling trends downward over time. Ireland does not have a large number ofarticles mentioning the country on average and does not present any clear peaks. Overall, there is some indication that attribution ofwhaling to states rather than other actors could have contributed to the increased attention ofstates during the early 1900's. In addition, measurement for specific countries indicates the potential for influence of blame and later interest in international whaling. The time distance between blame and interest in international whaling appears to be approximately 40 years. This lag time makes some sense given that rhetoric in the news may take some time before states need to respond during the 1940's as opposed to the rapid communication occurring recently. We can also examine the increase in attention to whaling in 1974 and whether this occurs due to increase in blame among states. In 1974, non-whaling countries become increasingly part ofthe International Whaling Commission signifying a change in issue attention as illustrated previously in Figure 2. Therefore, we can examine rhetoric before 133 1974 to determine ifa change occurred in the country blame as an indication that rhetoric blame changes caused the changes in country attention. The dynamics ofcountry blame in the news, however, are slightly more complex than simply assigning blame to many more states. Blame became more focused on fewer states between 1950 and 1980. The blame rhetoric shifted from a larger number of states, which were previously engaged in whaling, to a smaller number of states in the 1970s. In the data seen in Figure 5, a number ofcountries appeared next to whaling information or data during the 1950's, but this declined significantly in the 1970s and 1980s to seven or fewer states. During the changes between 1960 and 1980, anti-whaling activists, originating with Greenpeace, focused blame through their rhetoric, photos, and actions on only two primary countries: The Soviet Union and Australia. Actions by Greenpeace focused almost exclusively on Soviet Whalers (Day, 1987), while other organizations focused on Australian whalers (Day, 1987, p. 17). The more limited focus ofblame on fewer countries coincided with actual numbers of whales caught during those years. For example, during the 1969-1970 season, approximately 83.7% ofthe whales caught were caught by Japan and the Soviet Union (Ishida, 2000b). In the 1959-1960 season, Japan and the Soviet Union caught approximately 47.6% ofthe total number of whales (Ishida, 2000a). This alone seems to provide some evidence against the hypothesis above because increasing blame and country attention to whaling do not coincide. We would 134 expect based on the hypothesis that decreased blame would make those states less interested in whaling than when they were part ofthe blame rhetoric and frame. Figure 5. Percentage o/Country Blame in the New York Times 1,...-------------------?-------- 0.9 -/------------------.--------- 0.8 -/------- 0.7 -/------- 0.6 0.5 0/1 0.3 0.2 0.1 OFORMER SOVIET UNION OUNITED STATES lilllUNlTED KINGDOM IlI:lPERU IINORWAY IINEW ZEAU\NO I."l NETHERLANDS jgJAPAN E!llCELAND f2GERNANY oCANADA 1950 Note. N=165. 1960 1970 1900 1990 Ifwe expect states to gain interest when blamed in rhetoric, we would expect them to lose interest when not blamed in the rhetoric. It appears, however, that there was a large increase in attention to the issue of whaling during the 1970s in particular as a large number ofnations joined the IWC and engaged the whaling issue. Therefore, the blame rhetoric cannot explain why states became more interested in the issue during the 1970s. 135 In 1979, new countries entering the IWC consisted ofSweden, Seychelles, Peru, Chile, and Spain. In examining the relationship between naming these countries in news and their membership, evidence suggests a reversed causal direction. Membership in the IWC most likely influenced the appearance ofthese countries in the news media rather than their appearance increasing their interest in whaling. For example, examining Sweden, Seychelles, Peru, Chile, and Spain, which joined the IWC in 1979, it is clear that the number ofarticles describing these countries as part ofwhaling all rose after 1978. Figure 6. Country Specific Blame Sparklines (1970-1980, 2 year intervals) Country Sparkline (1970 - 1980) Peak (year) Avg/year (n) ?~Yl?h~U~~..,<~..........??........ ....?C1.?7?)....):.?.(l~) Sweden.I~Ll??9.}}.~4(4D Peru 22 6.8 Chile. .17(J2~9.1?:~((?~).. ~p(~Al?_.. ,.' ........?}(I??Ql?:QC?(?2 Note. Data compiled by author from Google News Search as described in the text. Figure 6 illustrates how these countries all gained increased association with whaling after joining the IWC, and there is much less indication that these states were blamed in rhetoric before joining. In addition, the average number of articles per year for each state is too low to make an adequate suggestion that naming these countries as part ofwhaling caused them to take an increased interest in whaling. To summarize briefly, before 1930, the primary causes as discussed in news articles involved non-state actors. Rhetoric implying cause with states increased beginning in the 1920s, peaking for many countries in 1928. These changes, along with 136 the changes in international interest in whaling in 1944 seem to coincide, given an 18 year lag between the rhetoric and the changes in the agenda. In the second primary change occurring in 1974, there is little indication that rhetoric focusing on blame caused changes in the interest ofstates because the media focused blame on fewer states. This leaves mixed results for this section and the hypothesis on whether blame in rhetoric causes increased attention for states. It appears that there may be some connection between the two, but a tentative one. It is important to note that nationalization of whaling companies could explain the increase in description ofstates as the cause of whaling as opposed to individual ships. This does not appear to be the case with whaling, however, as whaling companies seem to persist as private actors. Some subsidies have grown for whaling nations currently, such as Japan, but this does not amount to a significant amount ofnationalization in the industry. NAMING AND VICTIMIZATION Non-material Hypothesis 2: Rhetoric that emphasizes states as the victims or beneficiaries makes those states more likely to attend to the issue, increasing the chances for the issue to emerge onto the international agenda or increase its position on the agenda. In addition to blame, rhetoric emphasizing different consequences of whaling can change state involvement in the issue. Non-material hypothesis 2 suggests that rhetoric identifying states as part ofthe effects ofthe observed phenomenon makes those states more interested in the issue. 137 During the first stage, where whaling was associated only sporadically with the security of states, there is little evidence available on the communication and rhetoric propagated about the consequences of whaling. The behavior ofstates suggests that only in the cases where the consequences ofwhaling interfered with their security, they became interested in whaling; however, there is no rhetoric to associate with the changes in their understanding ofthe consequences in particular to whales. On the contrary, the only evidence we have from the period consists ofdescriptions of conflict between the nations' governments before they became involved and attempted to stop such conflict to resume whaling practices (see Ellis, 1991). In the 1930's, however, the League ofNations and the international conventions in 1930s begin to present rhetoric in regards to the consequence of whaling in terms of marine resources. In these records, effects of whaling are not associated with specific states. During the changes between the first and second stages with an increase in attention for whaling among states, the rhetoric does not point to the consequences of whaling for states in any great degree. Instead, much ofthe rhetoric describes the consequences of whaling in terms of a more general decline ofthe whaling industry and economic difficulties. This implies some consequences for whaling states because those states will lose some economic resources or growth. However, the rhetoric does not explicitly identify countries that would suffer from continued whaling. Consequences ofwhaling did not focus on states, but on non-state negative effects. One description, from the whalers themselves, describes how their whaling 138 actions have led to a decline in the profitability ofwhaling (Epstein, 2008; Stoett, 1997). In this description, whaling itself has led to the decline in profitability because the number ofwhales has declined and time and resources needed to catch each whale has increased. Companies established rules to control whaling between 1932 and 1936, not part ofinternational treaties, as additional evidence of the association between whaling and economic decline. The agreements between companies established a quota system, where each company could sell their quota amounts to other countries, which was based on the amount of oil produced from whales - the origin ofthe Blue Whale Unit (Birnie, 1985, p. 120). These inter-company agreements suggest that whaling was a cause of economic problems for these companies and some management could prevent these losses. There is little indication that the economic problems were associated with states, thus the consequences were not generally associated with states. During the changes ofattention to whaling beginning in 1970, with the increase in state attention to the whaling issue, the primary rhetoric described the consequences of whaling, again, not in terms of states. The primary source ofrhetoric during the 1970s came from anti-whaling activists. Anti-whaling activists associated whaling with the destruction ofan intelligent being part ofour common resource rather than as economic decline or explicitly with states (Day, 1987). The rhetoric discussed whaling as a moral bad rather than an economic bad, neither ofwhich discuss states explicitly receiving negative or positive consequences from whaling. 139 Despite the lack of explicit reference to states receiving consequences from whaling, there may be implied consequences for states in both the cases of rhetoric described above. In the first case, negative economic consequences of whaling can be implicitly associated with states because companies associated with a state suffer consequences, therefore employment may decline as well as taxes paid by the company. In the second case, when whaling causes the destruction of a resource owned by the world, this may imply involvement by not only whaling countries, but also non-whaling countries. However, since the hypotheses outlined previously describe the influence of rhetoric on state action in terms ofnaming those states, the hypothesis is not supported given the evidence from the whaling case. Stretching the data to implied consequences to states may increase support for the hypotheses, but would require alterations ofthe hypotheses to include implied meanings. This does not mean that the hypothesis is incorrect, but simply that the reason for increase in attention is not attributable to rhetoric focused on states consequences. There does not appear to be any clear rhetoric describing states as suffering consequences ofwhaling. TIMING AND MAGNITUDE In addition to blaming and victimization, the third influence ofnon-material factors is through rhetorical emphasis on short-term and greater magnitude effects. Rhetoric that emphasizes short-term consequences and those that emphasize increases in magnitude of effects are more likely to generate attention from states than less extreme rhetoric. This project describes rhetoric increasing the magnitude of effects and the 140 short-term consequences as crisis making. Increasing the magnitude of effects or the proximity ofthose effects increases the sense of crisis because consequences become more acute. A primary source for information regarding the magnitude ofeffects and the timing ofthose effects comes from the scientific community. During the early years of whaling, very little science concerned the number or the rate at which whale numbers declined. Instead, much ofthe early research involved identification and description of whaling species. In some cases, scientists identified species ofwhales only after those whales were already being hunted to extinction (see Ellis, 1991, pp. 371-374; Francis, 1990,p.215). Earliest appearances ofrhetoric regarding the degree and timing of disappearance ofwhales comes from the International Council for the Exploration ofthe Sea (ICES), which was started by an informal agreement in 1902 (Birnie, 1985, p. 107), leading to a formalized convention, signed in 1964 (CICES, 1964). ICES primary research involved declining stocks offish and seals during most ofthe earlier years until approximately 1927 (Birnie, 1985, p. 108). ICES did not directly conduct research on population numbers, however. ICES primary contribution consisted ofgenerating measurement techniques and describing the urgency for increased research and uniform policies for measurement. ICES also helped draft the 1931 Convention on the Regulation ofWhaling (Birnie, 1985, p. 109). 141 Part ofthe suggested ICES policies involved collection of data on catch information from the various countries involved in whaling. One publicized study (not conducted by ICES) examined the potential destruction ofwhaling populations in the future and was published in 1928 (Juda, 1996, p. 69). Despite these reports, the League ofNations was instructed in 1929 that decline in whaling populations would be "self correcting" because complete extermination would not occur once whaling declined enough to make it not profitable to whalers (Juda, 1996, p. 69). Therefore, although the hypothesis suggests that rhetoric increasing the magnitude of effects or crises results in increased attention, the existence offew reports and contradictions between the reports makes this hypothesis difficult to test. Although ICES was an important part ofthe development oftreaties and the policies within those treaties involving whaling, there was very little research or rhetoric on the rate at which whales were declining or the magnitude of effects of whaling. Although there are conflicting reports early in whaling, crisis-making rhetoric increased during the 1950s and after. During the 1950s, as research on whale populations began to catch up with whaling practices, some researchers increasingly described the need for lower quotas or a cessation ofwhaling in order to preserve stocks for the future. These reports by the Scientific Committee ofthe IWC, suggested for example before the 1959 meeting ofthe IWC, that the quota set by the IWC of 14,500 Blue Whale Units was too high (T0nnessen & Johnsen, 1982, p. 587). This rhetoric had greater emphasis after the appointment ofthe Committee ofThree in 1960, who were scientists involved in 142 population research (Aron, 2001, p. 108). The rhetoric increased toward crisis conditions in 1962, when the Scientific Committee stated that, "immediate action by the commission was critical for the protection ofwhale stocks, particularly the blue, humpback, and fin whales" (Aron, 2001, p. 109). Although the recommendations by the Committee ofThree were not always adopted by the Scientific Committee, the suggestions that some stocks ofwhale were being destroyed rapidly by whaling practices increased the urgency ofwhale depletion for those species. Researchers increasingly urged the IWC that whale stocks for some species required immediate attention in order to protect those stocks because ofthe extensive whaling practices during previous years (Francis, 1990, p. 220). These suggestions amounted to increasing the sense of crisis in regards to the effects ofwhaling on the whale populations. We expect, based on an increase in the urgency ofwhaling effects on whale populations that state interest would increase during this time. Although scientific information may have been a contributor to changing policies and quotas in the IWC (quota levels for species) as well as possibly the emergence ofthe anti-whaling advocacy movement in the early 1970s, there does not appear to be an increase in state attention to whaling because ofthe increased urgency presented by the scientists during the 1950's. As previously noted in Figure 2, the increase in attention to whaling began in 1970 as new members joined the IWC. Between 1950 and 1970, there is no noticeable change in membership in the IWC, although membership fluctuates 143 slightly. The increase in urgency, although not an influence on state attention, may have indirectly influenced state attention through the anti-whaling movement. CONCLUSIONS This chapter began by describing the changes in attention to whaling from 1500 through 2008. Attention to whaling changed over two stages during this time. In the first stage, states paid sporadic and short-lived attention to whaling. The first stage occurred from the earliest whaling to 1944. The transition to the second stage, however, might have begun as early as 1930 when states began to formalize their interest in whaling, suggesting a deeper and more sustained interest. This deeper and sustained interest in whaling, however, begins clearly at the end World War II in 1944. Between 1944, and 2008, states maintained a deeper and sustained interest as the number of states attending to whaling increased twice during this period: once in 1974 and again in 2000. The material hypothesis examines the degree to which security dominates the international agenda relative to other issues on the agenda. Security issues are more likely to appear on the agenda than other issues and security issues are more likely appear higher on the agenda than non-security issues. The evidence analyzed in this chapter generally supports this hypothesis. Security concerns for states seem to dominate the international agenda and security issues can trump non-security issue attention as occurred when World War II dominated over whaling. Materialist variable changes fail to account for increased attention during the 1970s and the deeper interest beginning in 144 1944. However, security provided by the two dominant states may partially explain the increasing interest in 1944. Three primary non-material hypotheses were examined to explain the changes that occurred in attention to whaling. Some rhetoric implying the cause ofthe destruction of whales with states emerged in 1928, approximately 18 years before a change in whaling interest in 1944. The emergence and repetition ofrhetoric in the media blaming states before the change in attention demonstrates a potential relationship between the rhetoric and the changes in attention. Before the changes in 1974, however, there is little indication that rhetoric blaming states led to changes in the agenda. The rhetoric describing the cause ofwhaling became more focused on fewer states, but the number of states interested in whaling increased. Although tIns does not support the hypothesis in general, the increased focusing on fewer states may have increased attention indirectly if this focused on a controversial or imp0l1ant state. This is not directly examined in this project, however. The second hypothesis examined involves rhetoric describing consequences ofthe phenomenon associated with states. When states are associated with the consequences of the phenomenon, states are more likely to become interested in the issue. In the examination ofrhetoric regarding the consequences ofwhaling for states, the evidence only implies consequences for states without explicit statements. Rhetoric present during the first shift in attention to whaling describes the negative economic consequences of whaling. For the changes in 1974, rhetoric described the consequences of whaling as the 145 destruction of a resource owned by the world. Both imply consequences for states, but do not suggest state consequences explicitly. In the first case, states with economic interests may suffer negative consequences. In the second case, states with an interest in common marine resources may suffer negative consequences. However, in both cases, explicit rhetoric does not appear involving the consequences for states. This neither supports nor dismisses the hypothesis because no clear change in the independent variable occurs. The third hypothesis examined involves crisis-making rhetoric that describes changes in the magnitude ofeffects or changes in the time to effects. There was little rhetoric describing the magnitude of effects ofwhaling or increased urgency ofthe issue for changes occurring in whaling attention from the first to the second stage. Some new rhetoric emerged during the 1950s on the increased urgency ofattending to whaling; however, no change occurred during the time in terms of state attention to whaling. Overall, the material causes of agenda changes seem to hold up well given the evidence presented from the case of whaling. The non-material causes show mixed results in their influence over issue attention for whaling. The next chapter continues the empirical examination ofwhaling by looking directly at frame changes rather than attention changes. 146 CHAPTER V INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS TO ADDRESS WHALING: FRAME CHANGES Chapter IV examined the changes in the international agenda regarding issue attention. This chapter examines the second part ofthe international agenda that involves changes in the whaling frame. The chapter proceeds to describe the changes on the international agenda regarding the whaling frame over the period from 1500 to 2008. After which, the chapter discusses and analyzes the changes in the frames in regards to the material and non-material hypotheses relevant to frames developed in Chapter III. These hypotheses involve polarity and the degree of contestation over frames, media exposure and focusing events, and connections to a broader discourse or culture. In addition, the chapter examines strategies for rhetorical manipulation, primarily concerning changes in scope, and the effects on frames. INTERNATIONAL WHALING FRAMES Before describing the frames, it is important to recognize that the years attached to changes in frames described below are harder to identify than in the previous chapter regarding issue attention. Since the changes that occur in the frame is a bit fuzzier than issue attention, the different periods are a rougher estimate than the years described in changes ofwhaling on or off the agenda. In the description ofthe frame changes, the dates associated with the dominant frame represent clear dominance ofa frame after a 147 period ofcontestation. Although the frame may have become dominant earlier, the dates used suggest clear dominance based on the evidence. To summarize the changes in the frame briefly, there are three general changes in the dominant frame regarding the relationship between states and whales. During the first frame, governments are largely not involved in whaling, as was shown earlier in discussions of whaling attention, but we can understand the frame as the dominant understanding ofwhaling in relation to non-state actors. For this first stage, the whaling frame is generally umecognized by states, as they are not paying much attention to the issue. The first dominant frame describes companies and individuals as primary causes of whaling, which produces economic prosperity and luxury goods. The goals of any policies during this period attempt to increase efficiency of whaling and improve the quality and quantity ofwhale products. After this first stage, a period of contestation over the frame begins around 1920, although the actual year is difficult to specify. Beginning in approximately 1945, a second dominant frame emerges describing states as the cause of whaling resulting in economic prosperity, food, and concern about the demise ofthe whaling industry. Policy proposals involve international management ofwhaling by states. Following the second frame, a period of contestation occurs beginning in 1970. After the period of contestation, a new dominant frame emerges in 1982. This new frame suggests that whaling results in destruction ofwhales and policies involve cessation ofwhaling. Table 5 summarizes these changes, and the next section describes them in additional detail. 148 Table 5. Frame Changes in Whaling Dominant Frame Time Causes Consequences Prescriptions Economic prosperity and 1uxury goods 1500s - early 1920s : Companies and individuals I Increase efficiency, Iquality, and quantity of I whale products; reduce I piracy; prevent conflict I between whaling , I companies ....................................................................................................................~?? ? ???????????????mm . 1920s - 1940s I Period of Greater Contestation ....................................................................~- ".............. . . 1939-1945 i World War II 1945 - 1970 States Economic Managed whaling prosperity, food, demise of whaling industry ............................................................. 1970-1982 Period of Greater Contestation ..................... ..........................,........ 1982 - 2009 States Destruction of Whaling moratorium whale populations WHALING EXPLOITATION FRAME The first dominant frame appeared unrecognized by states during the period from earliest whaling to approximately the 1920s. During this period of over 400 years, the interpretation ofthe relationship between people and marine resources implies the whaling frame, rather than explicitly described by states. The frame is characterized primarily by the idea that these resources should be exploited like other marine resources, and these resources will renew themselves over time (Stoett, 1997,28). The discussion below describes this relationship by referencing documents and actions between humans and whales over this 400-year period. Since international actors do not explicitly 149 describe the frame because state attention is sporadic during this period, we must derive the frame by examining the actions and words of actors that may not explicitly identify the frame. Individuals believed whales should be exploited since the earliest whaling as evidenced by documents discussing whales and their uses. The practice of consuming whales may have been around for over 150,000 years as archeological studies have found remnants of used whale parts (Rutherford, 2007), most likely from beached whales (Ellis, 1991, 37). The practice of going into the water and whaling has most likely been part of society since approximately the 1i h century, when people moved from consuming and using beached whales to the practice ofhunting whales along the coastlines (Ellis, 1991,38-9; Stoett, 1997, p. 152). In early descriptions ofwhales, they were often referred to as human adversaries, for example, as "monstrous creatures... armed with most terrible, sharpe, and cutting teeth" (Pliny the Elder, 79 AD, Quoted in Ellis 1991,35). We can also see some indication ofthe relationship between people and whales from Bible texts. In the Bible, we see references to "Leviathan," which some have suggested as a reference to whales. In Job, for example, the text describes rousing a "Leviathan" (Bible, Job 3.8) and pulling "in the leviathan with a fishhook" (Bible, Job 41.1). These earliest references in the Bible, describing what is likely a whale as a "leviathan" emphasizes the large and powerful nature ofthe creature. Although this early reference may be considered a whale, scholars also have suggested the creation may be a crocodile or some other large 150 powerful creature. In the story ofJonah, the term "fish" is used to describe the animal that swallows Jonah, equated with the whale (Ellis, 1991,34). News articles also reinforced the exploitation frame by continuing to describe whales as "fish" or "monsters" (e.g. "Whale hunting ofto-day," 1900). In all, these texts illustrate the starting point ofan adversarial, exploitative, and mysterious relationship between humans and whales. This adversarial and exploitative frame develops further since the 1500, which is described below in terms ofthe causal, consequences, and prescriptive characteristics offrames. One way to examine the frame involves examining news presentations as a proxy for common rhetoric regarding an issue. This project uses a sample ofNew York Times articles between 1851 and 1920 to interpret the dominant frame during the first stage. 29 The examination of the news by the New York Times during this period suggests a frame defined by unrestricted whaling and competition among the whalers for capturing the most whale products possible. By examining a sample of articles from the New York Times before 1930, it is clear that the most common view ofwhaling is that ofthe use of whale products for economic goods. In terms of blame for whaling during this early frame, most articles do not reference states when describing those responsible for whale catches. For example, the 29 The articles examined are listed in the Appendix. No formal coding system was used to analyze the frame content ofthe articles. Instead, the author read and interpreted the articles to understand the frame content. Although there is no clear indication ofreliability because ofthe methods used, repetition ofthe process is possible by other scholars to determine the extent to which repeated measurements would reveal similar results, See also Hopf(2002) for similar methods. 151 articles reference the whalers from "New Bedford" or "Nantucket," or reference to specific vessels, such as Milo, Callao, or Cassia ("George Law," 1854; Arrival of whaling vessels," 1855). This early frame involves primarily "whalers" as the cause of the destruction ofthe whales. It is rare in these New York Times articles to reference a country or a state. In most ofthe articles, references refer to either whaling companies or cities that are synonymous with whalers because ofthe large number of whalers who live in the port towns. The primary exception to referencing non-state actors occurs during the 1860's where a large number of articles reference "America" when discussing whaling involving companies or cities within the United States. It drops off immediately to zero right after this period, however, with no mention of other countries or ofAmerica during the rest of this early frame before the 1930's. The reason for this large increase in discussion of America during the 1860's coincides with the start and end ofthe American Civil War between 1861 and 1865. During this time, the whaling frame does not involve countries. Instead, the use ofthe word "America" in the articles signifies the importance ofthe United States as a single country as opposed to the north and south. The use of "America" does not directly relate to whaling. The number of references to country specific names, therefore, remains at zero until approximately the 1890's. The second part ofthe first frame around whaling defines whales and whale products as an economic resource. The consequence ofwhaling provides economic 152 prosperity and luxury goods. This suggests a positive association with whaling in that the killing ofwhales provides benefits for society. The first indication ofthis frame involves the numerous articles that describe whale catch, products produced, and the value ofthose goods quantitatively rather than the number of whales killed. This is clear by the numerous mentions ofwhalebone, oil produced, or whale catch with prices and profits of different actors (for an example, see "George Law," 1854; E.g. "Whaling news -- Marine disasters," 1855). During this early period, whales were implicitly framed as an important economic commodity. When normative statements are used in the articles, the authors describe a low catch as a "poor season," and a high catch as a "good season" ("Whale hunting ofto-day," 1900). Sometimes these articles reported the catch and oil produced relatively between the vessels as apparent competition between the different whaling vessels. All these statements confirm that the primary frame during this period was one where people use whales for the production of economic resources. In addition, when whaling emerged onto the international agenda during this first frame, the interaction between states suggests the strategic importance ofwhaling resources. Whale products were widely used and important for economic development and industrialization. Ellis suggests that whale oil during the 1800s resembled other strategic goods today, such as gold, diamonds, or petroleum oil (Ellis, 1991,55). This adds to the evidence suggesting the importance ofwhaling consequences benefiting states through economic growth and industrialization. 153 Prescriptive characteristics ofthe first frame involve policies that attempt to increase the efficiency ofwhaling and the quality and quantity of goods produced. States did not implement many direct policies involving whaling, however, we can derive the implicit prescriptive characteristics ofthe frame through examination oftechnological advancements achieved during this period and the general goals for whalers. A number oftechnological improvements occurred during the 1800s to make whaling more efficient and improve the quantity and quality ofwhale products. The earliest improvements involved processing whale fat into oil for use in products such as lighting and eventually soaps. Inventions and innovations included placing try-works (the process for producing oil from whale blubber) on ships and placing those ships near the whale stocks. The processing offats into oils required stability, which made it difficult to put the try-works on the whaling vessels on the open ocean (Ellis, 1991). A second important invention concerned the ability to bring whales on board ships through an opening at the stern ofthe vessels (Ellis, 1991, pp. 310-311). Before this, the whales had to be cut up in the water or brought to port for processing. Later inventions included the creation ofgrenade harpoons (Ellis, 1991, p. 325), factory ships (Ellis, 1991, p. 342), and using airplane spotters (Ellis, 1991, p. 314; T0nnessen & Johnsen, 1982chs. 1-2). The trajectory oftechnology and innovation was clear. The primary prescription associated with whaling involved improvement in whaling practices to kill whales faster, in greater quantities, and to create whale products more efficiently. 154 WHALING MANAGEMEm FRAME Beginning in approximately 1920, the previously dominant frame becomes contested, and in 1945, a new dominant frame emerges. The second dominant frame describes states as the primary cause ofwhaling rather than as previously identified with companies, cities, and individual vessels. In addition, the consequences ofwhaling changed slightly in the new frame to suggest that whaling results in the potential demise ofthe whaling industry. The new dominant frame qualifies exploitation with the idea that unrestricted whaling results in the long-term destruction of whales and economic loss. This results in a prescriptive frame involving the management ofwhaling. Whaling management mitigates the destruction ofwhales because of overexploitation. The first change in the whaling frame begins to occur in 1890 and continues to World War II. During this period, a transition takes place between identification of whaling with cities and whaling vessels to states. As described in an earlier chapter, Figure 3 shows the number of articles referring to states as a percentage oftotal articles about whaling over time. The change from whalers to countries importantly signifies the change of frame ofresponsibility from cities and companies to states. States become increasingly associated for taking whales within the causal characteristic of the frame. Beginning in approximately 1944, articles in the New Yark Times refer primarily to countries rather than individual whaling vessels or companies. The dominant frame changes from blaming non-state actors to state actors beginning after World War II. 155 The salient consequences ofwhaling changed slightly from the previous frame to include a description that whaling could result in economic loss through the demise ofthe whaling industry. Previously, the consequence ofwhaling was not directly associated with the destruction of whale populations as people considered it an infinitely renewable resource. In this new frame, unrestricted whaling was associated with a decline in the industry. The effects ofwhaling involved primarily a decrease in price of oil products and potential collapse ofthe entire industry. After the 1930-31 seasons ofunprecedented whale catch and oil production, many in the industry began to suggest that whaling might cause a collapse in the whaling industry. For example, in 1932, some involved in the whaling industry commented, "no one unconnected financially with the business ofwhaling can possibly approve ofthe present methods ofunrestricted slaughter" (Quoted in Francis, 1990, p. 206). In 1929, Norwegian whalers helped pass the Norwegian Whaling Act, or An Act to Regulate the Capture ofBaleen Whales, to regulate the capture ofwhales and essentially eliminate the hunt ofthe right whale, the population ofwhich had been destroyed by Norwegian whalers. The government in Norway recognized that unrestricted whaling resulted in economic decline and destruction ofthe population ofwhales. The legislation attempted to control whaling by licensing whalers and restricting non-licensed whalers (T0nnessen & Johnsen, 1982, p. 362). This initial legislation attempt begins to demonstrate the change in understanding about the consequences ofwhaling. The dominant 156 understanding ofwhaling suggested that the accepted umestricted whaling produced negative economic consequences (Peterson, 1992) and a reduction in whale stocks. In the 1946 International Convention for the Regulation of Whaling, the preamble says "the history ofwhaling has seen overfishing of one area after another and of one species ofwhale after another" (ICRW, 1946). The treaty identifies clearly the dominant understanding ofthe consequence of whaling in terms of destruction of whale species. This important idea that umestricted regulation results in an unsustainable whaling industry continues through new amendments and protocols ofthe 1946 treaty until the next frame change in the 1970s and 1980s. Overall, the evidence demonstrates that the new dominant frame transitioned in the 1930s and dominated after 1946. Whaling, once attributed to non-state actors and considered economically beneficial, transformed to blame states and overfishing, which resulted in economic decline and the destruction of some whale species. Prescriptive characteristics ofthe frame for whaling involve a species-specific quota system based on the oil produced for whales and the use ofmultilateral international treaties for regulation ofwhaling. The first change that takes place is the emphasis and reliance on multilateral international treaties rather than bilateral regulation or reliance on market mechanisms or non-state actors to control their catch. Before 1930, multinational cooperation and treaties were not generally considered to address international whaling. Most ofthe prescriptions before 1930 consisted ofmarket mechanisms or domestic politics, regulations, and incentive systems for supporting 157 whaling. The use ofmultilateral international treaties appeared in 1931 and continued thereafter as the primary means through which governments attended to whaling. Multilateral treaties and conferences continued through the 1930s and into World War II. After the war, multilateral international cooperation increased in addressing whaling further with the creation ofthe 1946 International Convention on the Regulation of Whaling. The use ofinternational treaties to regulate whaling became the dominant understanding of solutions to the consequences ofwhaling. Within these treaties, the dominant means through which regulation would occur to solve the perceived whaling problem involved limits on the number and type ofwhales that could be caught. The 1937 International Agreement for the Regulation of Whaling states that the goal ofthe treaty is to "secure the prosperity ofthe whaling industry and, for that purpose, to maintain the stock ofwhales" (IARW, 1937). Later treaties, in 1946, describe the goal ofregulation to obtain "optimum level ofwhale stocks as rapidly as possible" (ICRW, 1946). The optimum level ofwhale stocks was suggested to allow a yield ofwhales that sustains the fishery for the long-term interest ofthe industry. These treaties and subsequent meetings from the IWC set up a quota system ofmanagement to reduce the number ofwhales caught. These quotas applied to specific species rather than to all whales together. Although the exact number ofwhales nations were entitled to catch may have been disputed in meetings at the International Whaling Commission, the use ofthe quota system continued until the next frame change beginning in the 1970s. 158 Therefore, the prescriptive characteristics ofthe second dominant frame involved the use ofmultilateral international treaties and a quota system, which limited the catch of specific whale species. In the shift from the first to the second dominant frame, states became important causes ofwhaling rather than individual vessels ofcompanies. In addition, no negative consequences were associated with the first frame. In the second frame, consequence characteristics described the negative consequences ofwhaling in both the decline of economic prosperity and the declining populations ofwhales. WHALING PRESERVATIONFRAME The whaling frame changes a third time during the 1970's and 1980's when the prescriptive characteristics changed from management to a cessation ofwhaling. The causes ofthe destruction ofthe whales remained primarily defined as states. The consequence characteristics changed slightly because the positive economic gains from whaling were largely eliminated from the frame. In terms of causal characteristics ofthe frame, states remained as the cause described in the frame. States continued in news and other outlets as the central actors responsible for whaling. The number ofstates responsible for whaling declined in the media, which coincided with the number of states engaged in whaling during the time. In the 1969-70 season, at the beginning ofthe third change in frames, the USSR and Japan captured 18,336 and 17,047 whales respectively, while the total catch of whales was approximately 42,254 (Ishida, 2000b). The number ofwhales caught by 11 other nations amounted to less than 20% ofthe total whales caught, making their catch relatively 159 insignificant. Rhetoric and symbolism in this third frame, therefore, focused primarily on Japan, the USSR, and to a lesser extent other nations (see Day, 1987). Changes in the consequence characteristics of whaling for the third dominant frame began to suggest that whaling removes an important intelligent creature from nature. Instead ofprimary economic benefits or costs, whaling caused the destruction of a species. Removal ofthe economic component and increasing the moral component of whaling makes up the primary change ofthe consequence characteristics for the third frame. Much behavior that was once completely accepted, like military use ofwhales for target practice, became normatively unacceptable in changes moving toward the third frame (Epstein, 2008; Stoett, 1997, p. 143). Killing whales today has generally become unacceptable for most countries. The primary change for prescriptive characteristics in the third frame describes whales as one group rather than individual species as well as a reliance on cessation rather than a quota system. Prescriptions continue to rely on international treaties to govern whaling practices, but the policies used to control whaling change from individually specified quotas on specific species to a one-size fits-all model of cessation ofwhaling for all species. Early indications ofthis new frame are seen in the United Nations unanimous (52 0) vote to generate a la-year ban on whaling in 1972, and the moratorium established by the IWC in 1981, which went into effect in 1986. The moratorium on all whaling illustrated the primary prescription grouping all whales together and instituting a 160 cessation on all whaling practices. Although the moratorium was suggested first in 1972, it took place slowly over the years as quotas became lower. These quotas eventually led to the moratorium when the International Whaling Commission passed an amendment in 1982, taking effect in the 1986 whaling season creating a moratorium on killing whales of any kind (ICRW Amendments to the Schedule, 1982). This moratorium has lasted through 2009, although there is an increasing chance of lifting the moratorium in the near future, which the concluding chapter discusses explicitly. Figure 7 illustrates the decline in quotas during the management period to the eventual moratorium on whaling during the Conservationist period. Despite the fact that some whales, such as the Minke have good recovery rates and are smaller than other whales (Stoett, 1997), the general moratorium applied to all whales for their protection. The "preservationist" perspective de-emphasizes the importance ofeconomic benefits and whether a whale can recover from killing as the Minke is better able to do, and emphasizes the importance of preserving a natural creature, which may have high intelligence. The changes in the prescriptive characteristics illustrate the policies implemented did not discriminate between different species of whales. Despite the fact that some whales have faster recovery rates than others, differentiated whaling quotas (even ifset at zero) were no longer part ofthe prescriptive characteristics ofthe frame. The moratorium differs from previous practices offinding an optimal yield for whales in order to create a sustainable yield in the long term. 161 Figure 7. Whaling Quotas and the Moratorium 20000?,.------------------------------, 45000 18000 16000 40000 35000 10000 6000 4000 14000 j........................ . :..:.... ???????l???????????????????????????????????????????????? .........?"'...................................................................................... I 30000 III i 12000 25000 i ': 10000 ?1???????????????????????????????????????????????? \........................................... .. . .""......... I~ ~mooo~ g. 8000~~~...................~I;, 15000 0' 2000 +--------------------'.!!!!!'S;;::::---------\--'1 5000 o .J-,.. --,-_-.--,.-.,.....,..-_-__-~-_-__-f!l..eJ. 0 ~~~~~~~~0~~~@~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ - Quota BWU - Quota Whales Note. Data from Stoett (1997). MATERIAL HYPOTHESES Material Hypothesis 2: Concentration ofpower in one state (unipolarity) results in little contestation, concentration in two states (bipolarity) results in prolonged contestation, concentration in multiple states (multipolarity) results in short lived contestation. The material hypothesis concerning changes in frames suggests that changes in conditions ofpolarity alter the likelihood and type of contestation over frames. In order for frames to change, alternative frames must be presented in rhetoric, where the old frame becomes contested with an alternative understanding, As stated earlier, in cases of unipolarity, contestation becomes less likely because a single hegemon controls the international system and the frame for issues. In bipolar systems, contestation is likely to 162 become prolonged due to the rivalry between the two great powers and their relatively similar amounts ofpower. In multipolar systems, contestation over issue frames is likely to be short-lived because ofthe shifting alliance patterns and shifting concerns for states in multipolar systems. The two periods ofgreater frame contestation occur between 1920-1945 and between 1970-1982. In the first period, before 1945, the international system resembles a multipolar one (Thompson, 1986). During the second period, between 1970-1982, the international system resembles a bipolar one with the United States and the Soviet Union as the primary global powers (Thompson, 1986). Table 6 summarizes the relationship between polarity and contestation. Table 6. Whaling Contestation andPolarity Years Polarity Contestation World War II Little Contestation Greater contestation Little Contestation Greater Contestation 1500s - early 1920s Multipolarity 1920s - 1940s Multipolarity 1939-1945 Transitory 1945 - 1970 Bipolarity 1970 - 1982 Bipolarity 1982 - 2009 Bipolarity and Unipolarity (1991t Little Contestation ,--- Note. Polarity data taken from Thompson (1986). a1991 is used to place a date on the collapse ofthe Soviet Union, although decline may have started earlier with the first signal occurring at the fall ofthe Berlin Wall in 1989. The first important thing to note about the relationship between polarity and contestation is that polarity does not change consistently with the changes that occurred in the international whaling agenda. In particular, the change in 1991 from a generally 163 bipolar system between the United States and the Soviet Union to a system dominated solely by the United States does not coincide with a change in contestation. This change occurred in the middle of one of the periods ofcontestation where the issue frame did not change and there was little contestation. In other words, the independent variable changed without a change in the dependent variable. This suggests that changes in polarity are not sufficient to change the international agenda or that the effect is too weak to create a change. In addition to the change in the polarity that is not reflected in the degree of contestation, there are also changes in contestation without a change in polarity. This occurs twice, when the frame becomes contested in the 1920s and again when the frame becomes contested in the 1970s. Both ofthese changes, from little contestation to greater contestation, occur when there is no clear change in international system polarity. In most ofthe period from 1500 through the 1900s, we see very little interest in whaling. When the issue appeared on the international agenda, states or other international actors did not contest the dominant frame. All actors saw the issue similarly during this period. Whales were considered an economic resource for exploitation through efficient and productive means. The frame about whaling during this time did not change much until the 1920s and 1930s, when the frame changed in two ways. First, states became the primary causes of whaling rather than the emphasis on companies or individuals. Second, whaling consequences were seen as causing some negative economIC consequences. 164 There is no clear connection between polarity and the emergence of greater contestation ofthe issue frame during the 1920s. Ifpolarity were responsible for the degree ofcontestation, we would expect contestation to occur throughout the period, but it did not. Other factors must explain the change in the frame the increase in contestation that occurred in the 1920s. The second period of contestation occurred during the 1970s as the whaling frame changed from destruction ofan economic resource to a frame describing the destruction of an important animal species. Again, there is no indication that polarity explains contestation emerging in the 1970s since states did not contest the issue since the end of World War II. The evidence presented, therefore, is inconsistent with the hypotheses developed in regards to the connection between polarity and the degree ofcontestation. There is also no indication that the period ofcontestation during bipolarity is any longer than the contestation during multipolarity given the dates above. Therefore, the evidence presented does not support hypotheses on material influences ofchanges in contestation. This does not definitively rule out the influence ofpolarity on contestation, but it does not provide evidence in support ofthe hypotheses in the case ofwhaling. NON-MATERIAL HYPOTHESES In general, rhetoric propagated through the international system with high exposure that is complete and connected to a broader discourse is more likely to become part ofthe dominant agenda. The non-material factors, such as exposure, completeness, 165 and connections to a broader discourse change the likelihood ofthe rhetoric becoming part ofthe dominant frame. Table 5 previously summarized the changes in the content of the dominant frame, and the section below reviews this information during the analysis. EXPOSURE Non-material Hypothesis 4: The more exposure rhetoric receives, the more likely it influences perceptions ofthe phenomenon. Increases in media exposure and the use offocusing events to link rhetoric to large scale events in order to increase media attention were an important part ofthe rhetoric presented before frame changes in the third stage. In the first stage, where states were interested in whaling only sporadically, we have limited knowledge ofthe media exposure and focusing events connected to rhetoric during that time. Although we have information regarding the rhetoric presented internationally, the degree ofmedia or international exposure is undetermined. For the second change from little focus to a management focus, there is again limited knowledge on media exposure and focusing events linked to rhetoric. Changes from a management frame to a preservation frame, however, coincide with large media exposure and linkages to large focusing events. In additionto media exposure, rhetoric also received much greater exposure in international forums such as in the UN Conference on Human Environment (UNCHE) and within the IWC. The UNCHE provided a good opportunity to explore policies for whaling that might not have been acceptable to the whaling countries in the IWC. The UNCHE was 166 the first major conference on environmental issues held at the intemationa11eve1, in 1972 in Stockholm from June 5-16. The conference provided a venue for the attendees, over 113 states, and numerous other organizations to discuss the global environment (UNEP, 1972). The Stockholm Conference provided a venue for the large number of environmental NGO's present to communicate with state policy makers (Epstein, 2008, p. 110), thus providing exposure to their ideas. NGO's, such as Project Jonah and the Whale and Dolphin Conservation Society, which activists created specifically to stop whaling, attended the Stockholm Conference and established connections with policy makers. It was also at the Stockholm conference where the moratorium policy gained exposure after the conference adopted the policy. In the IWC, as well, the number of organizations with observer status increased dramatically during the period before the moratorium became part ofthe dominant frame. In 1969, only 10 observers were present at the IWC meeting, and only five were non governmental individuals or groups. However, in 1982,59 observers were present at the IWC meeting when the moratorium passed (Ellis, 1991, p. 442). The increase in the number of observer nations, individuals, and non-governmental organizations again provided access for the spread ofthe anti-whaling rhetoric. Non-material Hypothesis 4a: Rhetoric that links focusing events with a phenomenon and issue framei~smore likely to gain attention in the media, increasing exposure. 167 The primary exposure occurred not through international forums, as much as through media outlets coupled with focusing events. As discussed in Chapter III, rhetoric that links focusing events with a phenomenon and issue frame is more likely to gain attention in the media, increasing exposure (Non-material Hypothesis 4a). In the case of whaling, the anti-whaling activists were able to create the dramatic and unexpected events, film and document them, and link them with their own rhetoric on anti-whaling to gain increased media attention. The most dramatic focusing event linked with the rhetoric ofanti-whalers came in 1975 when a small number of Greenpeace activists attempted to interfere with Russian whalers. Often described as a moment between "David and Goliath," the comparatively small inflatable Zodiac boats positioned themselves between the much larger whaling vessel and the target whales (Day, 1987; Ellis, 1991, p. 438). Captured on video, the encounter was presented throughout media on almost every US television network and even in outlets in Canada, Europe, and Japan (Ellis, 1991, p. 445). Walter Cronkite's report on the whalers was hailed as a huge accomplishment, placing the anti-whaler's images with those ofthe Cuban Missile Crisis, Apollo 11's moon landing, the Kennedy assassination, and other major world events (Day, 1987; Epstein, 2008). With the focus on the conflict between the whalers and the Russians getting considerable media attention, the anti-whaler message was presented around the world. It is important to note as well, that during this same period, other organizations, such as the Sea Shepherd, were engaged in preventing Australian whaling but received much less media attention 168 (Day, 1987, p. 17). The reason for differing media attention may lie in the ability to present rhetoric in the context of a larger discourse and culture, discussed later. Greenpeace and other activists purposefully orchestrated these events to gain attention from the media. Greenpeace, for example, planned on confronting whaling ships while the IWC conference was ongoing in order to maximize the amount ofmedia coverage oftheir encounter (Ellis, 1991, p. 444; Francis, 1990, p. Ch. 12). The activists fully understood the power of dramatic events to help present their message in the media. Other events also gained attention, such as protests at the IWC and putting an inflatable whale in the Japanese delegation's room during the conference (Day, 1987). In Australia, the media were made aware ofattempts by activists to interfere with coastal whaling. The media arrived earlier than the activists, and whaling advocates showed the media the benefits ofwhaling. During the encounters, however, which caught more drama and media attention than demonstrations ofthe benefits ofwhaling, the activists failed each time to prevent killing ofwhales. Despite their failures in stopping the whaling, they successfully received greater media attention and presenting their anti-whaling messages on a larger scale (Ellis, 1991, p. 447). In 1974, images ofwhales as an important ecological or environmental resource (not economic) emerged in the media. Greenpeace managed to capture images ofa Russian whaling vessel attempting to harpoon and capture a sperm whale over the head ofa Greenpeace activist. While Greenpeace filmed these images, one activist managed to climb aboard the floating whale in an attempt to prevent the Russians from taking the 169 kill (Day, 1987; Epstein, 2008,97). Flipper, the movie, was released in 1963, where dolphins were first popularized due to both their willingness to perform for the camera and their friendly demeanor (Ellis, 1991,435). Following the movie release, the television show, along with other works, such as The Day ofthe Dolphin, presented dolphins as intelligent creatures, learning English, or assisting humans with various tasks. These presentations illustrate the changes ofthe new dominant frame emerging in the 1980s. The introduction ofwhales into popular movies and literature coincided with the introduction ofscientific discoveries ofthe potential destruction ofwhales as well as discoveries ofwhales' song and abilities to communicate. In 1966, an article in Scientific American described the potential for the destruction ofthe whales ifwhaling continued at the same pace. The article described the extent to which whales were being taken by various whaling countries despite the quotas and the involvement ofthe IWC, created to manage the taking ofwhales to sustainable levels (McVay, 1966). Scientific estimates of the decimation ofthe population ofwhales also appeared through (at least initially) a three-person scientific committee commissioned by the IWC. After three years of research, an impartial committee 30 reported that the blue whale and the humpback whale were in danger of extinction in the Antarctic whaling grounds (McVay, 1966). The 30 The scientific committee members were not from member countries and were not whale specialists. They were specialists in population dynamics and other fields related to understanding whale population. 170 media accounts ofwhaling illustrate some ofthe newer descriptions ofhow whales were framed beginning in the 1960's, which continue for the most part through today. In the news media, the number ofarticles describing the value of whales as a species increases after the 1960's and 1970's through today. Given the much greater attention to the anti-whaling rhetoric by the media and the drama created by the activists themselves, we would expect this rhetoric to become a greater part ofthe dominant frame. Based on our understanding ofthe dominant frame changes and the coinciding media exposure ofthe anti-whaler rhetoric, the evidence supports the hypothesis connecting international exposure and frames. CONNECTIONS TO DISCOURSE AND CULTURE Non-material Hypothesis 6: Rhetoric consistent with a broader set ofcultural beliefs or discourse is more likely to be accepted by actors increasing the chance to influence the international agenda. As discussed in Chapter III, rhetoric is more likely to become part ofthe dominant frame when it connects to a larger discourse or culture. Rhetoric presented before the first change in frames coincided with broader discourse and culture on the management of common resources as well as a greater reliance on states for regulation. In addition, rhetoric presented between the management and the conservationist frames resonated with a broader discourse and culture in terms ofthe Cold War rivalries and in terms ofthe larger environmental movements. 171 During the changes from the exploitation frame to the conservation frame, a large amount ofrhetoric involved the importance ofstates in regulating marine resources. For example, the Norwegian effort to regulate whaling in 1927 was largely unsuccessful, which led them to adopt the view that management ofwhaling requires international policies because whales migrate between areas of control. National control systems for whaling were ineffective since areas under the control of states were not the areas used for whaling purposes generally (Birnie, 1985, pp. 118-124). In addition, the timing of this first change in frame came about after an increase in regulation of other marine species, such as fur seals in 1911. In 1924, the Committee ofExperts for the Progressive Codification of International Law (appointed by the League ofNations) issued a report stressing the importance ofmultilateral comprehensive agreements to avoid problems with regulating migrating species (Birnie, 1985, p. 111). The report suggested that ad hoc agreements were not able to deal with the problems ofmigratory species, and states should consider the oceans as a common area ofregulation. This report and the work ofthe League of Nations did not directly address whaling at that time, but it provides a context in which the regulation ofwhaling by states through multilateral international agreements may have become more acceptable as part ofthis broader change in international culture. The culture emerging around the end ofthe First World War suggested greater. involvement from states in the prevention ofinternational conflict and management of international affairs. Although there were treaties between nations before the First World 172 War, the League ofNations was a very ambitious attempt to implement a form ofworld governance to prevent further large interstate wars. Mitchell documents less than 10 multilateral environmental agreements between 1878 and 1900, increasing to 20 between 1901 and 1942. This further increases to approximately 30 between 1943 and 1952 (Ishida, 2000b; Mitchell, 2002-2009). This broader dependence on states to govern international affairs, rather than the previous, might makes right approach signified the start of a cultural shift in understanding international affairs. Greater reliance on states for international regulation coincided with the rhetoric describing the need for states to address the issue of regulating whaling. During the 1970s, the broader environmental movement and discourse took a greater role internationally and domestically. A large number of international treaties formed during this period and before the whaling moratorium in the 1980s. For example, the CITES treaty providing guidelines on the protection of endangered species was created in 1973, the Convention on Wetlands ofInternational Importance was created in 1971, the Convention for the Prevention of Marine Dumping was created in 1972, and a large number of other international environmental agreements were created during the formation ofthe environmental movement. These agreements and the rise in environmental groups worldwide generated a larger culture for environmental protection during the 1960s and early 1970s. Within this context, the whaling rhetoric resonates more highly because it also adopts the language of environmental protection ofthe whales. One ofthe goals t 173 associated with the anti-whaling movement was the desire to equate whaling with a broader conservationist trend and the increase in attention to endangered species and their protection (Ellis, 1991, p. 437; Epstein, 2008, p. 204 and Ch. 205). The global trend toward greater attention to the environment as population increased and industrialization took hold in more countries created a larger context within which the whaling treaties resonated highly. In addition to the connection with a wider discourse and culture of environmental protection, rhetoric propagated and resonated with the United States and the west when linked with the broader context ofthe Cold War (Epstein, 2008). Although it is not clear that Greenpeace specifically targeted Russian vessels because ofthe connection to Cold War rivalries/ 1 the connection with the broader conflict between the US (generally a non-whaler) and the USSR (a whaler) pushed the rhetoric into the media spotlight. The media, for example, gave much less coverage to similar attempts to stop whaling in other parts ofthe world or against other western countries, such as Australia?2 It is difficult to know whether the media coverage ofthe Russian conflict with anti-whalers comes from connection to the larger Cold War rivalries or ifthe attention was caused by the greater 31 There have been several mentions that Greenpeace specifically target the Soviet Union by some scholars such as Epstein (2008), but Day (1987) does not describe such intent in his detailed history ofthe anti-whaling activism. In addition, Weyler's history of the Greenpeace movement, including the whale campaign, describes the encounter resulting primarily from a desire to confront "the whalers" not the Russian whalers (See Weyler, 2004, 212, 226,261-265). 32 Day (1987) describes such efforts, but they do not appear frequently in international news sources. Google News Search results in no results for "Greenpeace, Australia, whale" or "Zodiac Australia, Whale" searched on May 6, 2009. 174 drama brought out with the Russians. Despite this difficulty, the connection with a broader discourse in the Cold War and the environmental movement most likely had some influence in the greater resonance during the 1960s and 1970s. Rhetoric connected to a broader culture appears to become part ofthe frame for whaling as it appeared before the changes in the agenda. This does not suggest that all rhetoric that tied to a broader discourse necessarily becomes part ofthe international agenda. The evidence is consistent with the proposition that rhetoric connected with a broader discourse is more likely to become part ofthe dominant frame. In addition, rhetoric not tied to the culture did not appear as part ofthe dominant frame. caMPLETENESS Non-material Hypothesis 5: Rhetoric that includes a complete story with all three frame characteristics leaves fewer questions and is more likely to be accepted by the intended audience, which increases the chances for influencing the international agenda. The presentation ofcomplete stories including causes, consequences, and prescriptions are more likely to become part ofthe dominant frame. In order to examine this hypothesis, it is necessary to examine rhetoric presented before the frame changes that illustrate differing completeness. Before the change in the first frame, the rhetoric presented describes states as the primary party responsible for whaling. The rhetoric also describes the consequences of whaling in terms ofeconomic decline and a quota system for management. Although both parts ofthe rhetoric became part ofthe dominant frame, the parts did not appear together. Since they did not appear together, the rhetoric 175 presented only focused on one characteristic ofthe frame at a time. The rhetoric presented before the changes in the fIrst frame, therefore, was not complete as described in the hypothesis. Despite the lack ofcompleteness, the rhetoric became part ofthe dominant frame. This does not present decisive evidence because there are no alternative more complete stories to compare. In the second change ofthe frame, from management to conservation whaling, rhetoric by the anti-whaling activists described the primary causes ofwhaling, the negative consequences of whaling and a desire for cessation of whaling as a policy prescription (Day, 1987). Anti-whaling activists created a complete story around whaling suggesting that particular states, such as Japan, Norway, and Russia were responsible for whaling, that whaling caused the destruction of an important mammal without economic consequences, and advocated for a complete stoppage of whaling. Therefore, in the changes for the third frame, the rhetoric appeared more complete than competing rhetoric by whalers. Whaling rhetoric during these changes suggested only that whales provided valuable economic resources (Ellis, 1991, p. 447). The whalers focused their rhetoric on the economic and material benefIts ofwhaling rather than a complete story ofwhaling. In this case, the rhetoric with a complete story seems to have become part ofthe dominant frame over the competing rhetoric without a complete story. This supports the general hypothesis that rhetoric that is more complete is more likely to become part ofthe frame. 176 RHETORICAL MANIPULATION STRATEGIES There are three rhetorical strategies discussed in Chapter III that can change the outcomes for international agendas and frames. Altering the scope ofthe description of the phenomenon can alter the acceptability ofrhetoric as part ofthe frame. Emphasizing different characteristics ofa frame can change the attention to the issue on the international agenda. Finally, emphasizing different causes or effects within the frame characteristics can alter the acceptability ofprescriptive characteristics. In all three cases, the best test ofthe hypotheses would involve multiple manipulations that occur for the same issue to determine how these changes affect the dependent variable. Unfortunately for the case under consideration, there are no clear alternative rhetoric strategies presented for the changes in frames. The best example ofwithin frame emphasis would show different actors emphasizing different causes or effects within the causal or consequence elements and compare their effects on acceptability ofprescriptive characteristics. This type of manipulation did not appear explicitly in the case ofwhaling. For emphasis between frame characteristics, again, the best test ofthe hypothesis would occur between two sets ofrhetoric that emphasize different sets ofcharacteristics and the changes in effects on issue attention. The case ofwhaling does not provide such data, but Chapter III provides examples outside the case ofwhaling for both manipulation strategies. In the changes from the second to the third dominant frames, a bit ofrhetorical scope manipulations took place by whaling activists. Although testing the hypothesis for 177 scope manipulation ideally would have at least two sets ofrhetoric, discussing whether the scope manipulations in whaling are consistent with outcomes can help to determine support for the hypothesis. Manipulation Hypothesis 1: Manipulations ofthe phenomena scope change the audience acceptability of frame characteristics. Manipulating the scope ofthe phenomenon can change the acceptability ofthe rhetoric presented in terms ofblame and consequence characteristics for the audience. For whaling, the presentation ofinformation changed dramatically between the earlier presentations ofstatistics on whale catch and oil produced to stories ofindividual whale catchers and their methods to hunt specific whales. In most newspaper articles before the 1800's whaling was presented as statistics in terms ofthe number and amount ofwhales caught. Most ofthese statistics involved the resources gained by the whalers, because the emphasis was placed on the economic benefit ofwhales. In the new rhetoric presented by the anti-whaling advocates, individual stories were documented and presented to the media ofa single vessel catching, butchering, and producing whale products. The description ofthe phenomenon was presented differently with the scope focused on each whaling vessel rather than on the entire global scope ofthe number of whales and products produced. In addition, anti-whalers broadened the scope by changing individual species of whales into a single set of"whales." By putting all whales together into a single group, the new rhetoric contrasted claims by the IWC and whaling states, that management 178 requires different policies for each type ofwhale because their population dynamics differ. Instead, the new scope created greater acceptability ofa stoppage in whaling because "whales" made a single threatened group rather than only some ofthe species of whale. This scope manipulation is still in contention today where some countries, like Japan, seek to increase the allowable catch for whalers with larger populations in an attempt to separate species and consider their populations individually. During the IWC meetings, states resisted moratoriums early on, because they sought management conducted on a species by species basis. Moratorium language started with the UNCHE in 1972, where participants called for moratorium. The IWC emphasized that the goal ofthe IWC was management and suggested that an across the board moratorium is not a management policy, because it does not treat different whale populations individually (Birnie, 1985, p. 422; Francis, 1990, p. 230). By grouping all whales under a single category with rhetoric such as "save the whales" rather than "save the blue whale" or other individual whales, the acceptability of a general moratorium became greater. Under differentiation, the idea ofstopping all whaling seemed unnecessary because some species were adequately populated and were not in danger of extinction. In summary, the manipulations ofthe scope conditions appear to have changed the acceptability ofprescriptive characteristics. As scope conditions changed the focus from a large number ofstatistically numerical whales to stories ofindividual whales, the new consequence characteristic may have become more acceptable. This new 179 consequence characteristic described whaling, not as affecting economies, but as affecting a living mammal, that deserves some rights and protections. In addition, by expanding the scope ofwhales from individual species to all species of whales, a moratorium becomes more acceptable. When whales are thought about in terms of individual species, a large moratorium banning all whaling seems inappropriate because the moratorium is not focused on each species individually. However, by considering all whale species as one group of "whales" the one policy of a comprehensive moratorium becomes more acceptable. CONCLUSIONS There are three dominating frames during the history ofwhaling. The actions and texts before 1920 imply the first frame, but the frame is not explicitly stated. During this first period, the frame described the consequences ofwhaling to produce positive economic gains. The primary cause, as described in the media, involves non-state actors, such as individual vessels or companies. Policies involving whaling during this time attempt to increase the efficiency ofwhaling or the quantity and quality of goods produced. The second frame, beginning around 1944, suggests states as the primary cause ofwhaling rather than non-state actors. In addition, the frame adds a negative consequence that unrestricted whaling may cause negative economic consequences due to flooding the market with whale products. The primary prescription involves management and some control over the number and type ofwhales caught primarily involving a system ofwhale quotas. The third frame describes states as the primary cause again, but 180 changes the consequence ofwhaling to the destruction ofan important mammal, while removing the positive economic consequences. The primary prescriptive characteristics ofthe third frame involve cessation of all whaling practices. The evidence presented for the material hypothesis that polarity influences the degree of contestation for franles does not support the hypothesis. The amount of contestation over frames appears to be relatively unrelated to international power dynamics, and needs to be accounted by other variables. Although not explicitly tested in this research, the degree of contestation is most likely associated with the ability of actors to present new rhetoric, challenging older frames. Contestation, therefore, is most likely actor driven and determined by the extent to which rhetoric by actors successfully enters international forums and media outlets. This is somewhat related to media exposure of frames, but the degree of contestation in regards to media exposure is not directly tested in this project. Non-material hypotheses developed in Chapter III describe how exposure and connections to a broader discourse affect the whether rhetoric becomes part ofthe frame. Exposure in the media seems to increase the likelihood that rhetoric becomes part ofthe frame, and focusing events linked to the rhetoric increases media exposure as demonstrated in Greenpeace activities in 1974. In addition, connections to a broader discourse are also consistent with the rhetoric that becomes the frame. Rhetoric that appears to be connected to a broader culture and discourse becomes part ofthe dominant frame. In addition, the completeness ofthe rhetoric also appears to influence the 181 likelihood ofrhetoric becoming part ofthe international frame. At least for the formation ofthe third frame, the differences between the completeness ofthe anti-whaling rhetoric and the rhetoric from whalers suggest the success of a more complete story, supporting the hypothesis. Finally, the strategy ofmanipulating the scope ofthe phenomenon was examined as to its effect on the acceptability of frame characteristics. Although there are no comparative studies in this project, scope manipulations in the 1970's seem consistent with the hypothesis that changes can affect frame characteristic acceptability. By describing whales as a single group rather than differentiated species, the acceptability of a moratorium may have increased. 182 CHAPTER VI SUMMATION AND CONCLUSIONS This project set out to understand the formation and changes that can occur in the international agenda and why those changes occur. Studying the international agenda is vital for our understanding ofthe formation of policies and treaties in the international system, primarily because problem definition and agenda formation are the first steps in policy creation processes. If issues do not become part ofthe international agenda, states cannot formulate or implement policies or treaties. The content and frame ofissues on the international agenda change the content ofthe policies and treaties created. As political scientists, ifwe are to understand the formation ofinternational governmental organizations, the formation of international treaties, and the content ofthose treaties, it is necessary to understand the agenda-setting stage ofpolicy formation. In addition to the importance ofagendas for policy creation, this research also illustrates the importance of constructions and frames as interpretations ofinternational issues that are fluid and susceptible to change. It is not the real costs and benefits in international affairs that define issues but perceptions ofthose costs and benefits, that is, their social construction. The research does not suggest that material power distributions have no influence over international outcomes, but that both power distributions and the content offrames are important for changes in international policy, thus incorporating both constructivist and realist elements to international relations theory. 183 As policy practitioners or policy advocates, understanding how the agenda becomes formed, how issues become part ofthe international agenda, and how content of the frames is created and changed, allows an avenue of influence into international politics. The use ofrhetoric to manipulate the international agenda allows non-state actors and others without significant military resources greater influence over international outcomes. This adds to the expanding literature on non-state actor influence over international political outcomes and the importance of advocacy groups. Manipulation ofthe problem definition or the agenda may have tremendous influences on policy outcomes. Studies in game theory, public choice theory, and social movements reveal that changes in agendas and frames can result in any possible outcome desired by individuals who control the agenda. Agenda control and control over the words used to describe issues can amount to a great amount ofpower in international politics. The research contained within this project, therefore, benefits scholars of international politics, policy practitioners, and advocates of international policy. The research provides insights into the workings ofthe international agenda formation and change in international politics and the manipulation and rhetorical tactics for changing the content of issue frames. CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTERNATIONAL AGENDA RESEARCH In particular, Chapter II identified and defined concepts for developing a new understanding ofthe international agenda outside the context offormal international organizations or domestic institutional contexts. The international system has its own 184 rules and norms, such as the general rule ofanarchy and the norm of sovereignty. The international system has some structure although no governance above states. A series of norms and consistent interaction establishes a constructed set ofinternational standards for behavior (Bull, 1977), within which the international agenda develops and changes. Thus, the agenda described in this paper exists within the implied international rules and norms ofthe international system rather than any particular set of formal institutional setting, such as the UN or the WTO. The international agenda differs from agendas within these formal institutions because ofthe different sets ofrules operating in the international system than in formal institutions. The rules operating in the international system are also more fluid and subject to change by state action, such as the influence of state behavior on sovereignty (Krasner, 1999). The norms that set the international system apart from other institutions are more easily changed or ignored because there are no governments or organizations above states to enforce violations ofthe norms of international politics. This makes the study of international agendas different from studying domestic or formal institutional agendas. Chapter II defined the international agenda as a list ofissues to which multiple states are paying serious attention at a given time. Variation in the agenda can occur in the number of states paying attention to an issue, which describes when an issue moves in relation to other issues on the agenda. The greater the number of states and the greater the seriousness of attention ofthose states may vary between issues making some issues higher or lower on the agenda than others. Seriousness ofstate attention varies with the 185 amount ofresources expended on a particular issue for that state. Differences ofthe number of states attending to an issue, the strength ofthose states, and the depth oftheir attention define the relative importance ofissues, or seriousness of attention, on the international agenda. This project also describes a new approach to understanding agendas more generally by adding a constructivist perspective developed from research on social movements to our understanding of agendas. The constructivism employed in this research comes from a "soft constructivist" approach (Lapid & Kratochwil, 1996), based on Wendt's (1999) vision of international politics or Hacking's (1999) vision of social constructivism. The soft constructivist approach assumes there are ontological truths about the world, but epistemologically, we cannot know these truths. This project uses frames to understand the relationship between observers and real phenomena observed. Issues that appear on agendas emerge not from real facts in the world, but interpretations ofthose facts - the frame. Frames consist ofthe interpretation of causes, the consequences, and the prescriptions for the phenomenon. Just as a picture frame may emphasize or obscure some parts of a painting or photograph, an issue frame emphasizes or obscures different characteristics ofthe real phenomenon. Real phenomena have a number of causes, consequences and possible policy prescriptions, but the frame identifies a subset ofthe characteristics in existence. A dominant frame occurs when most ofthe states that attend to an issue adopt a similar perspective or definition ofthat issue. Not all states must 186 agree on the dominant frame or on exactly the same definition for the frame to become dominant. Dominant frames are sometimes unrecognized or internalized such that states do not explicitly discuss them. Other times they are reinforced through discussion or reference to formalized rules. Contested frames are those where no dominant frame exists because actors debate the definition and meaning of a phenomenon. Contestation can exist indefinitely when actors cannot agree on a single interpretation ofthe event. The use offrames and frame dominance to understand interpretations ofissues on the agenda is applicable beyond international agenda research to domestic agenda research as well. Frames are important for understanding changes in the agenda because frames may change over time although an issue's place in terms ofimportance may not change. In other words, how actors understand an issue may change, which changes the agenda because it changes how an issue on the agenda is defined. This research makes such implicit interpretations explicitly part ofthe agenda and an obj ect ofstudy. Chapter II defined two aspects important to the international agenda: attention and frames. Both the international attention to issues and the way those issues are interpreted by actors are important sources ofvariation on the international agenda. The project describes the importance ofboth states and non-state actors for changing the international agenda. Rather than privileging one group or another (such as much ofthe division between realist and liberalist international relations theory), the 187 project shows the influence ofpower on issue attention and non-state actors influence over issue frames. UNDERSTANDING CHANGES IN THE INTERNATIONAL AGENDA In addition to the contributions to theoretical work on agendas described above, this project also develops hypotheses to describe the variables responsible for changes in attention to international issues and the interpretation ofthose issues. The hypotheses apply to two parts ofthe international agenda: changes in attention and changes in frames. These variables include both material factors and non-material factors that may influence constructed frames and attention. Few studies have examined the causes of changes ofsocial constructions through a positivist framework as advocated by Wendt (1999) and Keohane (2000), unlike this project. This study examines influences over the constructed frames using explicit hypotheses developed in Chapter III and tested in chapters IV and V, which are summarized below. Changes in Issue Attention on the Agenda Changes to issue attention for whaling on the international agenda first occurred in the 1930s when nations increased attention to whaling. In 1939, this attention declined in favor ofthe Second World War. In 1944, this interest increased once again among states to a more long-term, deeper, and a sustained interest in whaling. Attention then increased again in 1974 as more states became interested in whaling. Hypotheses concerning changes ofissue attention - movement on and offthe agenda or change in 188 relative issue importance - consist ofthe domination ofsecurity issues on the agenda and rhetoric that names and blames states, victimizes states, or increases the magnitude and temporal proximity to consequences. Material Hypothesis I: Security issues are more important on the agenda and are more likely to emerge onto the agenda than economic issues or other issues on the international agenda. Based on the evidence from whaling, consistent with the hypothesis developed in Chapter III, security issues seem to dominate the international agenda most in a multipolar system. Whaling only becomes part ofthe international agenda ancillary to security and the safety ofships during multipolar systems, but may emerge onto the agenda independent ofsecurity concerns in bipolar and unipolar systems where larger states provide some security and stability. Polarity fails to account directly for why whaling gathered greater attention in the 1970's as opposed to any other time, because polarity does not change near or before the 1970s. However, the bipolar system enabled an increased attention to non-whaling issues. Therefore, polarity acts as an enabler to create the opportunities for non-security issues to emerge onto theagenda rather than a direct cause of increased attention to whaling. In multipolar systems, non-security issues are much less likely to emerge than security issues relative to bipolar and unipolar systems. 189 Non-material Hypothesis 1: Rhetoric that emphasizes states as the perpetrators makes those states more likely to attend to the issue, increasing the chances for the issue to emerge onto the international agenda or increase its position on the agenda. Evidence supporting the influence ofblame on issue attention comes from the increase in state blame beginning in 1928. Increased rhetoric blaming states can be associated with an increase in state attention during the 1930s and sustained attention in 1946. The evidence does not support the hypothesis, because as attention increased for whaling in the 1970s, blame became more focused, and attention increased. Non-material Hypothesis 2: Rhetoric that emphasizes states as the victims or beneficiaries makes those states more likely to attend to the issue, increasing the chances for the issue to emerge onto the international agenda or increase its position on the agenda. Little rhetoric explicitly described the consequences of whaling in terms ofstates. The primary consequences as described during the early part ofthe frame was positive economic growth, but not generally associated with states. During the second stage, rhetoric described the consequences associated with economic decline in addition to decreases in whaling populations. In the third stage, explicit rhetoric described the consequences of whaling in terms ofdeclining whaling populations. In none ofthese stages does the rhetoric explicitly attribute consequences of whaling for states. Therefore, this study cannot directly test this hypothesis. 190 Non-material Hypothesis 3: Rhetoric that emphasizes short-term consequences or consequences of a greater magnitude is more likely to increase attention to issues. Rhetoric describing increases in the urgency to attend to whaling or increases in the magnitude ofeffects emerged in the 1950s from scientific studies. This rhetoric, however, did not seem to influence the attention to issues because there was no discernable change in issue attention as it was already part ofthe international agenda with sustained state interest. It is possible that such rhetoric influenced the exact quotas used during the 1950s to control whaling, but this does not constitute change in the international agenda. Changes in Frames The second part ofthe dependent variable examined in this study involves changes in the frame of an issue on the international agenda. The dominant frame changes after World War II, preceded by a period of contestation between 1930 and 1945. The frame changes again in 1982 after a period of contestation from 1970 to 1982. The first dominant frame described the responsibility ofwhaling with fishers and companies that produced economic growth and products. The primary policy for fishers during this time involved increasing the efficiency ofwhaling and the quality and quantity ofwhale products. The second frame changes the responsibility from individuals and companies to states. The frame also describes the consequences ofwhaling in terms of economic loss without control over the supply ofwhale goods. During this second frame, the primary 191 prescriptions involve quotas over the quantity ofwhales caught. The third frame describes the consequences of whaling in terms ofthe destruction ofall whales and not in terms ofeconomic consequences. The primary prescriptions ofthis third frame involve a cessation ofwhaling. Material Hypothesis 2: Concentration ofpower in one state (unipolarity) results in little contestation, concentration in two states (bipolarity) results in prolonged contestation, concentration in multiple states (multipolarity) results in short lived contestation. Polarity does not appear to explain the degree ofcontestation in the frame for the case ofwhaling. Contestation occurs irrespective ofthe changes in polarity. Contestation occurred during periods ofmultipolarity and bipolarity, although there was little contestation in unipolarity. There is no indication that the period ofcontestation was longer during bipolarity than multipolarity. There is less contestation apparently during the period ofunipolarity. Since there has not yet been a period ofincreased contestation since the emergence ofunipolarity, however, this alone does not support the hypothesis. Non-material Hypothesis 4: The more exposure rhetoric receives, the more likely it influences perceptions ofthe phenomenon. Media play an important part in propagating rhetoric through the international system and to various international actors. Media often provide increased exposure to rhetoric accompanying large-scale events, known as focusing events. Focusing events 192 alone do not change the international agenda, but coupling these events with rhetoric can help propagate the rhetoric, changing frames, and the international agenda. In the case of whaling, increased exposure ofstate blame during the first change of frames and increased exposure ofthe anti-whaling rhetoric in the second frame (linked with focusing events) coincides with this rhetoric becoming part ofthe dominant whaling frames. Evidence from rhetoric and media exposure during the history ofwhaling frames supports the hypothesis for rhetoric exposure. Non-material Hypothesis 5: Rhetoric that includes a complete story with all three frame characteristics leaves fewer questions and is more likely to be accepted by the intended audience, which increases the chances for influencing the international agenda. The content ofrhetoric affects the degree to which the rhetoric is acceptable to audiences. When the rhetoric tells a complete story and connects to a broader discourse or culture ofthe audience, the rhetoric is more likely to become part ofthe dominant frame as it has a greater connection to the audience. The only case where we see competing rhetoric in regards to a particular frame involves the change from the second to the third dominant frame. In the rhetoric prior to this frame change, the anti-whaling activists presented a more complete story including characteristics of causes, consequences, and prescriptions, than the story presented by whalers, which focused on the economic benefits ofwhaling. The fact that the anti-whaler rhetoric became part of the subsequent dominant frame suggests some support for the hypothesis on the influence ofcompleteness over which rhetoric becomes part ofthe dominant frame. 193 Non-material Hypothesis 6: Rhetoric consistent with a broader set ofcultural beliefs or discourse is more likely to be accepted by actors increasing the chance to influence the international agenda. Rhetoric connected to a broader discourse in the 1930s, connecting blame on states with a broader culture ofincreasing internationalization of issues coincided with the rhetoric's emergence into the dominant frame. In addition, rhetoric connected to the broader environmental movement in the 1970s coincided with that rhetoric becoming part ofthe dominant frame. The evidence in the whaling case, therefore, supports the hypothesis that rhetoric connected to a broader discourse and culture is more likely to become part ofthe dominant frame. Manipulation Hypothesis 1: Manipulations ofthe phenomena scope change the audience acceptability of frame characteristics. Chapter III also discussed three ways entrepreneurs might manipulate rhetoric in order to achieve particular goals in changing frames and the acceptable policy prescriptions to deal with international issues. Given that most advocacy groups or states seek to influence policies, this section is particularly valuable for such groups. The most valuable aspect ofthe discussion of strategic manipulation comes from the understanding that all the manipulations are based on real observations. None are based on lies or falsifying data. Each manipulation or description presents a different view ofthe "truth" just as different individuals can have different views of a car accident and present widely different stories. This makes these manipulations somewhat more legitimate in terms of 194 policy options since they are not explicit lies or falsifications. Manipulating the description ofthe phenomenon in terms of spatial or temporal scope affects the acceptability ofthe frames by making the frames more or less related to the phenomenon. Manipulations that emphasize the causes or the consequences can change the importance of the issue for states because it may emphasize particular states in different parts ofthe frame. Manipulation within each characteristic can affect the acceptability ofpolicy prescriptions. In the whaling case, this project only analyzed scope manipulations due to lack of clear evidence showing manipulations between frame characteristics or within frame characteristics. The evidence from whaling suggests that manipulations ofthe scope conditions appear to have changed the acceptability offrame characteristics. Changing the scope conditions from species differentiation to species conglomeration, made single policy prescriptions more acceptable to address whaling. The moratorium on whaling became more acceptable because activists successfully grouped whales into a single category rather than subdivided into species and subjected to species-specific quotas. Overall, there are mixed results for the different hypotheses examined in this study. Material factors seem more oriented toward influencing state attention to issues and allowing non-security issues to emerge on the international agenda. Non-material factors seem more appropriately oriented toward changing the dominant understanding or frame for issues in international relations. Therefore, where rhetoric may be able to influence the dominant understanding of issues, it may be less able to change attention to 195 issues on the international agenda through manipulation ofthat rhetoric. Instead, rhetoric is better able to change the acceptable prescriptions by modifying the causes and consequences of international issues. RHETORIC AS A MECHANISM OF SOFT POWER INFLUENCE The influence over issue frames presented in this study describes a form ofsoft power not commonly examined in much ofthe literature on soft power resources. The term "soft power" has increasingly made its way into the discourse ofinternational relations research. Types ofpower have appeared in various writings throughout international relations, including in the earliest realist writings, where attempts were made to discount the importance ofnorms, morality, and world opinion as forms of power (Carr, 1956; Morgenthau, 1948, pp. 235-280). At a basic level, power is the ability for one actor to influence the actions of another actor that would not have occurred otherwise (Dahl, 1957). For international relations scholars, this means that when actor A in the international system can influence the actions of actor B in ways that actor B would not have done otherwise, the first actor can be said to possess some amount ofpower over the second actor given the particular situation. Power has been part of international relations studies since the earliest political writings by Thucydides (1954) and Machiavelli (1935), and it remains perhaps the most important and least understood concepts in international relations (Baldwin, 2002, p. 177). 196 Soft power has been added to the list offorms ofpower for international actors more recently (Nye, 1990). Soft power has been described increasingly in international politics as the power of attraction, an alternative to the traditional understanding ofpower in terms ofcarrots and sticks (Nye, 2006). Nye divides the differences between hard and soft power in terms ofwhether the intent is to coerce or to attract. Hard powers, he suggests, are those that attempt to coerce individuals, such that military force and economic sanctions can be used for coercion (Nye, 2006). Economic wealth can be an inducement when others change their behavior because ofthe desire to be wealthy rather than some use ofmoney by a larger state to coerce actions (Nye, 2006). Attraction as the third form ofpower, in Nye's definition, lacks a clear explanation ofresources used to change the behavior ofothers. Nye's conception of soft power primarily consists ofthe policy to attract others. He describes it as "the attractiveness of a country's culture, political ideals, and policies. When our policies are seen as legitimate in the eyes of others, our soft power is enhanced" (Nye, 2004, p. x). The definition ofsoft power through attraction by use ofculture, political values, and foreign policies, is incomplete without the importance of communication ofthose ideas. Therefore, this project's use of rhetoric as an influence on frames and issue attention is an important part to explaining the potential use ofsoft power -- attraction to policies - through communication ofthose policies internationally. In Nye's concept of soft power, the resources useful for attraction are culture, political ideals, and policies. The problem with these resources is that alone, they have 197 no connection between the actor yielding power and the target. Policies and culture can exist throughout the world in isolation without affecting other states. One way to implement the use ofideas and cultures as power is to develop particular communication strategies for policy explanations. Therefore, the resource associated with soft power involves rhetoric and symbols that communicate culture and ideas that mayor may not be attractive. Nye makes frequent reference to rival soft power users, such as Osama bin Laden, because he is able to attract individuals to his cause. The rhetoric, however, is vital to the attraction of ideas and culture of Osama bin Laden. Western policies toward the Middle East may be framed entirely as western encroachment and negative consequences by j ihadists to attract individuals toward the use ofviolence against the west. Policies ofthe United States could also be framed, as the US government attempted to do after the second Iraqi war, as freeing individuals from oppressive governments. In the perspective under this project, both are potential dominant frames of US policies, and the use of rhetoric and media can influence which becomes dominant for specific individuals. The use of discourse and symbols as the tools ofattraction is an important avenue to utilizing soft power. When we move to understanding soft power in the use of discourse and rhetoric, however, we move slightly away from the importance of culture and ideas as the place where rhetoric comes from. Entrepreneurs manipulate rhetoric based on real observations in order to change perception ofthe world, our frames. By changing the frames for an audience, the audience may act in ways they did not intend. 198 This mechanism becomes somewhat slippery, because rhetoric and frame changes essentially change the interest ofthe actor. For example, ifthe interests ofthe United States suggest managed whaling, but rhetoric and symbols change the understanding such that the United States becomes interested in protecting whales, rhetoric has changed the interest ofthe United States. Has the United States done something that it would not have otherwise done because ofthe rhetoric? Ifthe rhetoric changes the interests ofa state or other actor, then this rhetoric fits the definition originally used above - power is the ability to get others to do what they would not otherwise do. Under this perspective, individuals act in a world where arguments and rhetoric can change the way actors understand the world, changing interests and actions (Kratochwil, 1989; Risse, 2000). Therefore, the use ofrhetoric and controlling the discourse or conveyance ofideas becomes the mechanism through which soft power can be utilized. Of course, this is not completely new, as diplomacy and rhetoric have long been part offoreign policy resources. The above describes not a new form ofpower, but a new way to understand soft power in light ofthe work in this project on the use ofrhetoric to change outcomes in international politics. It is also important to adopt terminology to recognize the different types ofpower available to international actors, states, or non-state rather than relying on antiquated realist meanings. In most instances, references to "power" refer to military strength in international politics. By adopting the clarification of"harder power" and "softer powers," communication between realist and non-realist scholars may become easier 199 because ofa common use oftenns. These tenns also reflect more precisely the type of power discussed in different research projects. This dissertation begins to develop a theory ofthe mechanisms by which Nye's notion ofattraction operates. The project suggests that attraction operates through the application ofrhetoric to communicate the legitimacy ofpolicies, cultures, and ideas. It is easy to understand how force can be used to compel others to do something and how payments can be made for services. Police, for example, use force to compel criminals to obey. We all use money to get others to do actions that they would not do otherwise in services and at work. Our understanding ofthe uses ofsoft power in creation and manipulation ofinternational politics has been much more limited. At least one soft power resource involves the content ofrhetoric and the use of media to propagate that rhetoric. Some countries have seen the importance ofrhetoric and changing the frame around their country and hired public relations or media finns, such as the country ofGeorgia (Bogardus, 2009). After successes using imagery and rhetoric in the 1970s with several international advocacy campaigns, Greenpeace established its own public relations section. The use ofrhetoric as a mechanism by which international actors can attract others is an important addition to studies in soft power. SOME CAVEATS OF THIS PROJECT Although the results in this research project are suggestive ofthe forces behind international agenda changes in both attention and frames, the results need further testing to determine whether the results generalize to other environmental cases or cases outside 200 environmental politics. Single case studies face greater challenges in demonstrating causation because many variables are not held constant and coincidence ofvalues on the dependent and independent values may suggest a connection, but need further testing to demonstrate causation. First, in regards to influence ofrhetoric on issue attention and frame changes, the historical whaling case does not allow adequate examination ofvariation for different rhetoric that did not become part ofthe international agenda. There is not enough competing rhetoric presented internationally to compare against the successful rhetoric in order to test whether some frame characteristics makes other rhetoric more acceptable. When examining rhetoric manipulation strategies, there is no counter-evidence of strategies that were not successful. In order to determine which rhetoric became part of the frame, we would ideally have multiple sources ofdifferent rhetoric, some ofwhich become part ofthe frames and some that do not. Unfortunately, in this case, there is little alternative rhetoric to those documented within the study. Therefore, the correlations or coincidence ofthe rhetoric with changes in frames is suggestive ofcausation, but needs further testing to determine whether the rhetoric is driving the cause. A second issue related to understanding causation is the lack ofvariable controls in a single case study. Whaling allows for study into agenda and frame changes easily because the history ofwhaling allows easy grouping into temporal periods described earlier. However, it also allows a large number ofvariables to potentially interfere with or overpower the variables ofinterest in this study. One primary variable that this project --------------_._.__._- 201 does not hold constant is the domestic institutional context of each nation that became concerned with whaling. It is clear that domestic political contexts can influence international policy (Frieden & Martin, 2001; Hiscox, 2002; Moravcsik, 1998). Domestic institutions may influence the degree to which states pay attention to issues and the frames states maintain for issues on the agenda. This influence may come domestically through interest groups and activists (DeSombre, 2000). It may also be the case that international advocates influence domestic advocates and interest groups (Putnam, 1988). The potential for domestic institutional influences on the international agenda needs to be examined further to determine how rhetoric relates to domestic institutions and advocacy groups. Another variable not controlled in this study is the level and speed of communication changing over time. As each frame changed for whaling, communication became easier and faster (Schramm, 1988). The changes in communication could be responsible for much ofthe changes observed in the influence and appearance ofrhetoric between the first stage and the third stage. This is similar to having more data available during the later period and much less data in the earlier period. The correlation between the rhetoric and the broader discourse may be a spurious relationship where the primary driving factor is associated with the increase in quantity and speed of communication. Another issue in this project involves the connection between the broader discourse and the rhetoric seen. Instead ofthe theory presented in this project that the connection to a broader discourse helps rhetoric become part ofthe international frame, 202 the broader discourse may encourage rhetoric similar to that discourse - effectively reversing the causal direction. In particular, rhetoric that describes states as the blame for whaling beginning in the 1920's and the association with a broader discourse could have a reversed causal direction. The increase in focus on states and international treaties may have prompted individuals and the media to present whaling as a state issue identifying the states responsible for whaling rather than individual vessels. This potential causal reversal needs further study in future analysis. AFTER THE MORATORIUM Although the third frame presented in this project has dominated since the 1980's, some nations continue to hunt whales, such as Japan, Norway, and aboriginal communities. In a recent push, whaling states may overturn the 1982 moratorium in favor ofmore regulated whaling as opposed to the frequent "scientific" killings (Brown, 2009). Although the preservation frame is clearly dominant since the 1980's, a minority ofstates continues to push for alternative frames and contest the moratorium. Although this research and many accounts of international whaling end with the moratorium on whales in 1987, the issue has continued be part ofthe international agenda. To many in the international system, the international whaling issue appeared to have been solved with the moratorium; however, whaling states continue to contest the international frame on a conservation ofwhales, thus maintaining some space on the international agenda for the whaling issue. In particular, Japan and Norway have continued to advocate for their right to whale, and have taken advantage ofthe provision 203 for scientific whaling to continue to hunt whales, many ofwhich end up in the Japanese food supply. Their claims to whaling primarily rest on the abundance ofMinke whales, sovereignty rights, and food security (Epstein, 2008, p. 231). Organizations, such as the North Atlantic Marine Mammal Commission,33 advocate for "optimum utilization ofthe living resources ofthe sea" by attempting to alter the dominant frame (NAMMCO, 1992). In addition, aboriginal communities continue to advocate for their rights to whaling as part ofa historical cultural practice and population subsistence (Reeves, 2002). Most whales taken by Japan have come under the provisions of scientific whaling and most taken by Norway have come under its having opted out ofthe commercial ban under the IWC rules. Many other whales taken have come by the hands of aboriginal populations. Since 1985, 12,300 whales were taken under scientific permit (IWC, 2009c), 7,543 whales for aboriginal subsistence (IWC, 2009a), and 19,674 for commercial purposes under objections to the International Whaling Commission (IWC, 2009b). Despite the continued claims by Japan to allow controlled, sustainable, whaling of a limited species, their efforts have not been entirely successful to change the frame around whaling until very recently. In 2009, there has been a new push to change the rules ofthe IWC to allow limited whaling ofrecoverable species ofwhale. These changes, ifimplemented could suggest a return to a management/economic based 33 Membership includes Norway, Iceland, Greenland, and the Faroe Islands. 204 dominant frame as opposed to the preservation frame. As part ofthese changes, the new agreement will prohibit scientific whaling, which will allow greater control over the number and type of whales hunted. These changes in the rules ofthe IWC could be seen through the preservationist frame without indicating that the frame has changed, however. Given the Japanese scientific hunt for whales currently, many anti-whalers may prefer better control of the hunting for scientific purposes by allowing some legal Minke whale hunting. This would close the scientific loophole in the system, which is largely unregulated. Alternatively, we may be seeing a shift back to management ofwhale stocks before the moratorium. In addition to the Japanese, other countries, such as South Korea, have joined in the desire for whaling rights under the IWC. The signal by South Korea to obtain the right to hunt whales may be part of a regional policy directed towards competition with the Japanese, or it may be part ofa broader trend of countries seeking to hunt whales for economic gain in a sustainable managed environment. These changes are relatively recent developments at the time this project was completed. In the future, we may see an increase in the number of states desiring to take whales for economic reasons in a managed way. Perhaps two frames will develop: one for states with a desire for preservation maintaining the preservation frame; and another for states interested in managed whale harvesting, which see whales as an economic resource. 205 FURTHER QUESTIONS In addition to the hypotheses and testing them in the case of whaling, a number of questions remain unresolved and subject to future research. An important possibility discussed earlier about the influence of speed and quantity of communication over the influence of rhetoric needs further examination. Increased ability to take part in international forums, the existence ofportable video cameras, and rapid television communication allowed easier propagation ofrhetoric around the globe during the 1970s than in the 1930s. Because communication during the 1800s looked nothing like the communication possible during the 1970s, the difference in communication may factor into the ability ofrhetoric to influence the agenda during the 1970s to a much greater extent than during previous years. The expansion of communication appears to continue to build toward greater speed and quantity ofinformation. As new forms of communication become more prevalent through Web 2.0, will advocacy groups become more influential? Some might suggest so, but there is an alternate logic as well. Today, anyone with a computer can create a web log (blog) or other forms of interactive communication to spread information and rhetoric very broadly almost instantaneously. The spread ofrhetoric and ideas may make it more difficult than in the 1970's to gamer international attention for a particular rhetorical claim. This increase in communication quantity and speed may cause a decline in the ability to change frames because the increase in communication allows for too much rhetorical competition. Given the large number of individuals and 206 activists engaged in the propagation and strategic manipulation ofrhetoric, the larger supply has made it more difficult for any particular actor to gain an advantage, increasing exposure oftheir ideas and rhetoric. Therefore, the growth of communication, while accelerating the influence during the 1970s, may have led to too much communication today making rhetoric manipulation more difficult. Another area ofrhetoric not examined in detail in this study involves the "securitization" of issues to increase attention to those issues. Securitization involves the description ofpreviously understood non-security issues as part of national security (Buzan, Wcever, & Wilde, 1998; Waever, 1995). Changing issues from an environmental issue, for example, to an issue involving state security, where the consequences ofthe phenomenon decrease state security may increase the importance ofthat issue. This allows the incorporation ofsecuritization as a basis for frame changes. The whaling case was not presented as a security issue in rhetoric as an attempt to change the frame; however, the influence ofrhetoric to securitize frames deserves future research. Scholars have already begun discussions on particular issues, such as climate change and whether those issues have security elements (Deudney, 1990; Homer-Dixon, 1994; Levy, 1995; McNeill, 2005). A third area of interest for future studies would entail experimental research for the influence ofrhetoric on belief systems and frames. Although this project does not examine the influence ofrhetoric at the individual level, policies are ultimately created and changed by individuals. Therefore, it is important to know, in addition to current 207 work on frames and decisions (e.g. Druckman, 2004; Fox, 1992; Gigerenzer, 1996; Kahneman & Tversky, 1982; Quattrone & Tversky, 1988), how changes in rhetoric might influence which frames become dominant. Much ofthe research in psychological studies examines how frames change individual behavior, but to a less extent on which frames are adopted by individuals and why.34 In addition, it is unclear from the research how different manipulation strategies compete and are reconciled when positioned in media against each other. When two sets of rhetoric, equally exposed in the media use different strategies, by emphasizing actor blame versus victimization, it is not clear which will become dominant and why. Experiments or other techniques to examine these questions make an interesting extension ofthis research. Fourth, this study also did not discuss aboriginal whaling in its analysis. Aboriginal whaling is an important aspect ofthe whaling story and important for whaling activists and anti-whaling activists today. This research was primarily concerned with understanding state interest in whaling and changes in the international agenda rather than telling the story ofthe history ofwhaling. Scholars can use the theories developed here to understand the framing and international attention to the case of aboriginal whaling. There is some indication that native populations attempted to use rhetoric to influence their ability to continue whaling despite international efforts (See Francis, 1990, pp. 240-242). Although aboriginal whaling is an important part ofthe whaling 34 An exception appears in Whyte (1989). 208 story, it is not an important part ofthe story of changes in the international agenda regarding whaling. Certainly, it is plausible that banning whaling could be easier without the rhetoric presented by aboriginal and other whalers today about their legitimate whaling. The influence ofrhetoric from aboriginal whaling and the ability of aboriginal communities to maintain differing frames about whaling deserve future study. Finally, this research has primarily focused on the changing importance ofthe whaling issue on the agenda, but it does not examine the relative importance ofwhaling to other issues. Ifthe importance ofwhaling increased during the 1970s, as documented in this research, this increase may not be as meaningful ifall issues gained increasing importance during this time. The relative increase between the whaling issue and others could be zero although we observe an absolute increase in importance. Hypotheses that examine the relative importance of security versus other issues were also not possible to test without including other issues in the study. The project also cannot examine the "crowding out" hypothesis more closely, except in regards to security versus the environmental issues. The crowding hypothesis suggest that attention to some issues causes other issues to lose attention with the implication that there is a finite amount of attention actors provide issues at any given time (Downs, 1972; Schreurs et aI., 2001). Although this project suggests that crowding must take place since the whaling issue moves on and offthe agenda, the project also attributes these changes to a variety of variables not including all the other issues that may take the attention ofstates. 209 Examining relative issue importance on the international agenda will add substantially to our understanding ofchanges in the international agenda. 210 APPENDIX A NEW YORK TIMES ARTICLE DATA New York Times data were compiled from ProQuest Historical New York Times Database through the University of Oregon Library database access. Some articles were eliminated by the author ifthe article's reference to whaling did not involve the mammal. Sometimes articles used words, such as "whale ofa good time," and other colloquial phrases. Articles with such text in the titles were eliminated from the population before any coding or analysis. All articles were coded by the author, which resembles an "expert" coding system. A random sample ofarticles was taken from the population ofarticles for each decade for examination. Table 7 indicates the frequency ofthe total number ofarticles by decade. Table 8 provides the list ofarticles examined and referencing notes for each article. Table 8 also contains the codes for country mentions within each New York Time Article. ISO 2-letter codes are used to denote each country listed. In addition, several codes are used to denote non-state actors of interest mentioned in the texts. These are presented in Table 9. Codes ofcountries in the articles do not include country names when they are used only for geographical reference. Since the intention is to capture blame, association between the country and the act ofwhaling, statements describing a whaling vessel offthe coast ofAustralia, for example, are not coded for Australia since Australia is not associated as a cause ofthe whaling. Table 7. Frequency ofWhaling Articles in the New York Times by Decade 211 Decade Start 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Table 8. Frequency 53 54 115 149 147 111 85 263 260 142 204 165 281 285 192 75 New York Times Article Data Article Title (Abridged in Some Cases) Latest Intelligence Russian Machine for Killing Whales Arrival ofWhaling Vessels Transfer ofthe Whaling Business Very like a Whale New-York City Arrival ofthe Overland Mail Brooklyn News The Whale Fishery for 1861 Whaling Intelligence The Whaling Fleet Monetary Affairs San Francisco The Whale Fishery American Whales in the North Pacific The Pacific Coast Year 1852 1853 1855 1855 1856 1858 1859 1861 1862 1865 1866 1866 1866 1868 1870 1870 Month 08 11 05 08 09 05 01 11 01 09 01 01 04 01 12 12 Start Day Page 11 2 21 2 29 1 28 4 08 4 01 8 19 1 22 5 08 6 30 1 08 5 31 2 19 5 13 3 16 2 26 5 Country Appearance o o o o o o o o US o US US o o US o 212 Article Title Start Country (Abridged in Some Cases) Year Month Day Page Appearance Jonah's Whale 1873 12 08 4 0 A Bark Attacked by a Whale 1874 02 16 2 0 Counterfeiters Arrested 1875 08 05 2 0 The Escaped Fenians 1876 08 21 5 0 Twelve Ships Lost at Sea 1876 10 22 1 0 Whaling News 1877 07 27 5 0 Riding on a Whale's Back 1877 10 07 2 0 Arctic Whaling 1877 11 19 2 0 A Whaleship's Escape 1877 11 26 2 0 The Trade ofDundee 1878 01 06 7 0 The Eothen's Whaling Voyage 1878 06 18 5 0 The Arctic Whaling Fleet 1878 09 10 1 0 Whaling Intelligence 1878 09 14 5 0 A Whale Killed near Riverhead 1878 10 24 2 0 Whale-Fishing at Charleston 1880 01 08 5 0 The Big Whale 1880 04 06 5 0 A Whale Attacks Abark in Mid-Ocean 1881 04 29 3 0 From the Arctic Sea 1881 10 03 1 0 How a Whale Breathes 1882 10 15 12 0 Whaling in the Arctic 1882 11 01 2 0 The Tail and Muscles ofthe Whale 1885 03 01 9 0 The California Whale Fishery 1885 04 04 2 0 Chasing Whales 1885 07 18 5 0 A Whaling Brig Wrecked 1885 08 25 2 0 Amagansett's Big Prize 1886 01 11 8 0 Catch ofthe Whaling Fleet 1886 10 30 3 0 Collision with a Whale 1887 05 13 8 0 First Whale Taken This Year 1888 01 13 3 0 The Catch ofWhales 1888 07 30 1 0 The Flag Again Insulted 1889 02 07 1 0 Sunk onWhale Rock 1889 05 18 5 0 Cut a Whale in Two 1889 10 11 2 0 A Whaling Steamer Lost 1889 11 02 8 0 On the Way to Halifax 1889 11 24 14 0 Esquimaux and Whales 1889 12 30 3 0 Whales Rob Fishermen 1891 11 17 3 0 Offthe Highlands Was a Whale 1894 07 03 8 0 The Exhibited Whale Washed Ashore 1895 05 28 10 0 Even Marines Would Not Believe It 1895 07 14 3 0 After Humpback Whales 1895 11 03 30 0 213 Article Title Start Country (Abridged in Some Cases) Year Month Day Page Appearance Disappointed Finders of a Fossil 1895 12 06 10 0 Quogue Watching for a Whale 1896 01 15 1 0 A Whale Hunt OffProvincetown 1896 05 08 3 0 No Whales Like the Old Whales 1896 06 07 5 0 Jonah and the Whale 1897 02 01 3 0 Two Whales Off South Hampton 1897 02 20 1 0 Cutting Up Amagansett's Whale 1897 03 17 4 0 Whales OffLong Island 1897 07 07 1 0 European Edible Oddities 1897 12 12 11 0 Whaling Fleet in Danger 1898 01 03 3 0 The Whale Escaped 1898 01 11 5 0 A Whale OffLong Island 1898 03 10 10 0 Whaling Schooner Had Good Luck 1898 08 21 11 0 Whaling in the Faroes 1898 09 04 15 FR Sharks and the Dead Whale 1898 11 20 21 0 Big Whale Washed Ashore 1899 09 18 2 0 Baldwin-Ziegler Expedition 1900 12 27 7 0 Whale Sends a Bark to Davy Jones's 1902 04 25 2 0 Locker Whale Disabled a Ship 1902 05 20 3 0 Whale Bumped into Mine 1904 03 31 2 0 Took Whales for Japanese Ships 1904 04 14 2 0 Roosevelt to M'kinley "a Minnow to a 1904 04 23 5 0 Whale" Here's a Tale ofa Whale 1905 06 18 7 0 Dead Whale Ashore on Long Beach Bar 1905 07 03 12 0 Life on the Great Ocean 1906 09 08 9 0 Sperm Whale Got Away 1907 03 22 1 0 Polar Expedition Sails 1908 04 13 4 0 In the Wright Aeroplane, Whose Secret 1908 05 17 SM3 NO Is Carefully Guarded... Record Catch ofWhales 1908 08 17 5 CAJP Whale Races Liner 1908 08 26 1 0 Big Whale Drifts Ashore 1909 03 06 1 0 Whales OffNantucket 1909 07 13 1 0 Four Tie at Morris County GolfClub 1910 06 19 S3 0 A Stranded Whale Roped at Arveme 1912 05 20 6 NOGL Closed Season for Whales 1912 06 30 X7 JP CA US Dead Whales in Ship's Path 1912 10 20 C5 0 214 Article Title Start Country (Abridged in Some Cases) Year Month Day Page Appearance Escaped after a Privateer Burned a 1912 11 24 X20 0 Whaling Fleet What Happened to Aaron's Whale 1913 04 13 X4 0 Amateur's Picture Hung on the Line 1914 05 10 C5 0 Two Trawlers Sunk 1914 10 31 4 SE The Fallacy of a Jitney Submarine 1915 09 25 10 0 White Sox Whale Browns 1917 04 21 10 0 Sunday Hits Darwin for 'Nature Faking' 1917 05 25 7 0 Seek U-Boat Bases, Marconi Suggests 1918 06 13 8 0 Seaplanes for Whaling 1920 06 02 12 0 Whale Hits Staten Island 1921 06 25 6 0 45-Ft. Whale at Cape May 1921 09 04 3 0 Sidelights from the London Press 1921 10 16 75 0 Whale and Calf Inshore 1921 12 26 15 0 Notes on Trade and Industry abroad 1922 07 09 38 0 Natal Whaling Industry 1922 08 20 E2 0 Whale Is Sighted Off Southampton 1922 10 14 10 0 There's No Harm in a Whale Shark 1924 03 02 E2 0 Whale and Earthquake 1924 08 03 X14 0 The Wanderer Quits Movies To Hunt 1924 08 18 1 0 Whales Once More Did Whale or Shark Get Jonah? He Asks 1924 10 27 10 0 A Shrine for the Last Whaling Ship 1925 03 22 91 US Seeks to Save Whales From 1926 03 31 1 UK Extermination; Britain Will Send Experts... Arctic Whale Hunt for Museum Here 1926 05 11 7 0 British Museum Asks Putnam's Aid 1926 09 01 4 0 British Scientists Seek to Find Whether 1926 10 03 XX7 0 Whale Is Polygamous Navy's Iron Whale 1927 01 09 XX2 0 Bronxville Boy Seeks New Bedford 1927 03 17 3 0 Whaling Two Whales at Cape May Keep 1927 04 12 1 0 Mackerel Fishermen in Port Whales Thrill Lindbergh 1927 06 09 4 0 Big Whale Bumps Destroyer Which 1927 07 10 E8 0 Races Near It at Sea World Mark Falls in Detroit Regatta 1927 09 07 24 0 215 Article Title Start Country (Abridged in Some Cases) Year Month Day Page Appearance Big German Company Will Enter 1927 12 04 El NO GB CL Whaling; "Factory Ships" Will Make DE Oil. .. Whales Still Stage Battles for Wondering 1928 03 04 158 0 Seafarers Motor Boat Breaks Mark from Albany 1928 04 15 157 0 New Circus Samson on Diet ofWhales 1928 04 16 27 0 Norway Wins in Fight for Antarctic 1928 11 25 E3 GBNO Whales Overjoyed to Reach Goal 1928 12 27 1 0 Dead Whale's Long Trip 1929 02 20 5 NO Byrd Rebroadcast from Antarctica 1929 02 24 3 0 Organizes to Check Slaughter ofWhales 1929 05 20 33 0 Berlin Fliers Wait at Hudson Bay Post 1929 07 07 2 0 A New Point About Whales Disclosed by 1929 08 06 20 0 Captain Irving Boy Finds Fossil Whale 1929 09 10 22 0 Humpback Whales Numerous in Bay of 1929 10 13 X22 0 Fundy Waters Scott Survivors Sail for the Antarctic 1929 12 15 9 0 Whaling Fliers Lost in Antarctic Sea 1929 12 31 1 NO Huge Whaler Here; Crew Lauds Byrd 1930 04 20 22 NO Byrd Set a Record through Ice Pack 1930 04 21 8 NO Sea Monster Seen at Newport Is 1930 05 24 3 0 Identified as White Whale Battle Whale Nine Hours 1930 05 25 21 US 8 Outboard Marks Set at Worcester 1930 05 30 22 0 Lone Arctic Posts Radio Day's Cheer 1930 12 26 16 0 California Scientists Trace Dawn-Age 1931 01 20 17 0 Man Whaling Ship Here with $1,500,000 Oil 1931 04 19 27 NO Nets 5-Foot Whale in Chesapeake 1931 04 29 51 0 Biologists Capture Nest ofBaby Eels 1931 07 28 4 0 Ship Sails for Antarctic 1931 10 11 E3 FK Would Kill Visiting Whale 1931 10 23 48 0 George M. Cohan in a Studio -- 1932 10 02 X5 0 Bothersome Stories -- Mr. Whale's New... Explains Whale Deaths 1933 07 04 29 0 216 Article Title Start Country (Abridged in Some Cases) Year Month Day Page Appearance Remains ofEarly Eskimo Race Found 1933 09 11 19 0 Near an Alaskan Glacier Byrd Is Now Due at Little America 1934 01 18 3 0 Ice Pack Vanishes OffBay ofWhales 1934 01 23 8 0 Byrd Ship Returns to Unloading Task 1934 01 26 15 0 Byrd Ship in Peril; Buffeted by Winds 1934 01 28 3 0 Whale Jostled by Bremen at Sea 1934 03 03 15 0 Whale Attacks Vessel, Snaps Propeller 1934 06 23 4 0 Blades 'Miles ofWhales' OffAsbury But Only 1934 06 25 1 0 Fishermen saw Them Miss Carstairs, Here, Silent on Buying 1934 10 06 17 0 Isle 18th Century Whale Oil To Light Yule 1934 12 23 12 0 Service Two to Go Whaling OffLong Island 1935 01 18 25 0 Joseph P. Fawell 1935 03 23 16 0 Fight Whales 6 Hours in Florida Waters 1935 03 25 17 0 Arctic Explorer to Seek Whales at 1935 06 15 15 0 Amazon Mouth Whaling Curb Is Denied 1936 03 05 17 JP, GB, AU Humpback Whale Cause Of Waikiki 1936 03 15 N3 0 Traffic Jam Whale Draws Crowds in Brazil 1936 06 14 30 0 Persistent Pleas Held Path to God 1936 08 24 9 0 Science Is Blamed for Moral Chaos 1936 09 07 18 0 Whale Goes 1,000 Miles Up River 1936 09 13 35 0 Bermuda to Revive Whaling 1937 02 24 25 BM Sea Wolves Kill Seals 1937 04 25 5 0 Ready to Seize Whale Oil Cargo 1937 11 18 18 US NO Cutter Hunts for Whale In San Francisco 1938 02 08 15 0 Bay Ecuador Scents Mystery In Carcasses of 1941 09 21 4 0 23 Whales $12,547 Verdict to Artist 1942 02 21 17 0 James H. Wood 1943 05 27 25 0 Last Whale Harpoon Maker DiesI 1944 02 24 15 0 Capt. Henry Mandley 1944 05 08 19 0 Gay Whale Spouts in Flushing Creek 1944 06 08 23 0 New Whale Ship Uses Radar 1945 10 29 5 0 217 Article Title Start Country (Abridged in Some Cases) Year Month Day Page Appearance Wild Life Had Severe War Casulties; Oil 1946 01 28 21 0 Killed Gulls, and Submarines... Whale Sighted in Sound at 5 A.M., And 1946 10 22 26 0 Blow Me Down, Mates, It's So ... 13 in Whaling Accord 1946 12 03 11 0 Tanker Sets out on Antarctic Trip 1946 12 27 35 NO Polar Whale Haul Put at $100,000,000 1947 05 05 45 USNOGB JP SUND Raft in High Seas Rides Easy and Dry 1947 05 20 27 0 Japan to Ship Whale Oil 1947 12 04 13 0 Youngsters' Garb Shown by Brogan 1948 04 29 26 0 Log ofa Whaleship 1948 06 06 BR5 0 Old Customs House at Sag Harbor To Be 1948 09 10 25 0 Restored, Moved to New Site Whale Meat Cargo Near Britain 1949 03 20 18 GB Whale Fishing 1949 11 27 BR14 NO Scientific Circus Features Animals 1949 12 30 4 0 Books ofthe Times 1950 05 04 40 0 In The Nation 1950 08 17 26 0 One-Pound Whale Shown at Museum 1952 02 27 28 0 Whale Meat Is Tested As a 'Milk' for 1952 10 20 25 0 Babies Ladd Plans Movie ofa Whaling Trip 1952 11 03 36 0 The Screen in Review 1952 11 24 19 0 Events ofInterest in Shipping World 1953 04 12 S10 0 Two Whales Get Lost in Britain 1953 09 16 13 GB Copters Popular for Whale Hunts 1953 12 26 21 GBNOJP Whale That Can't Swim Channel Gives 1954 03 26 23 0 Briton a Weighty Problem Prehistoric Head ofWhale Is Found 1954 04 25 119 0 Exhibitor to Dispose ofWhale 1954 07 21 30 0 Peru Fines Whale Ships 1954 12 01 9 PE Sperm Whale's Oil Guards Reservoirs 1955 02 27 30 0 Talks on Whaling Mapped in Moscow 1955 06 19 SII lIAUBR CADKFR NLNZNO SUGB US ZAPAMX JP SE IS ARCLPE 218 Article Title Start Country (Abridged in Some Cases) Year Month Day Page Appearance Upstate Leviathan 1955 10 30 BR40 0 Mink Living on Whale Meat 1956 01 05 C76 0 Soviet Skipper Visits U.S. Ship 1956 04 08 23 0 Screen: John Huston and Melville's 1956 07 05 18 0 White Whale Whales Auditioned 1956 07 22 E9 0 Long Island Museums and Landmarks 1956 09 09 X25 0 Meeting Debates Whale Quota Cut 1957 06 26 45 0 Antarctic Whaling Argeement 1958 08 23 30 II GB NO JPNL SU Whale No.2 Due Here 1958 08 29 24 0 Brown Gets Whaling Relics 1958 10 05 62 0 Shipping Events: Whaling Quotas 1959 06 23 66 0 Two Quit Whaling Pact 1959 07 02 52 NL JPNO Boy's Gift Solves Whale's Identity 1959 07 31 21 0 Indians' Capture ofWhales 1959 09 05 14 0 Science Notes 1959 12 13 Ell 0 Whale-Hunting, California-StyIe 1960 02 07 XX2 0 3 Members ofLamoureux Divide Their 1960 03 06 XII 0 Profits in Fashion ofWhaling Men Tiny Pale Whale Arrives at Coney 1960 07 08 23 0 Soviet Whaling Expanded 1960 10 14 64 SU Informality Rules Shops In an Old 1961 08 29 34 0 Whaling Port Whale Towed to Sea 1961 09 30 16 0 Outsmarting Crocodile and Whale 1961 12 31 BR4 0 Whaling Village Tour 1962 08 19 64 0 Sidelights 1963 07 27 23 JPGB 150 Whales Wash Ashore 1963 12 16 63 0 Sidelights 1964 03 06 42 NOJPND SU Early Japanese Get Whales 1964 03 16 62 JP Last of Wooden Whale Ships May Be 1964 07 13 52 0 Designated Shrine At Home by the Mizzen 1964 08 09 BR1 0 Letters 1964 12 27 138 0 Whale Found in Hudson Towed to Sea 1964 12 30 33 0 and Blown Up It Isn't a Carrier, It's a 'Birdfarm' 1965 06 01 5 0 219 Article Title Start Country (Abridged in Some Cases) Year Month Day Page Appearance F.A.O. Calls for Global Rules To Protect 1965 06 30 45 IF Whale Industry A Salty New Museum for an Old 1966 05 08 XX4 0 Whaling Town George F. Salman of Service Corps 1966 06 02 43 PE Whales Try Mass Suicide in Florida 1966 08 15 28 0 2 Whales Flown Here With Romance in 1967 09 08 46 0 Mind Antiques: The Charms ofScrimshaw 1969 01 18 28 0 500-Mile Quest for White Whale 1969 04 23 56 0 3 Main Whaling Countries Will Keep 1970 07 01 10 JP SUNO Antarctic Quota US Last Call for Whales 1970 07 14 36 JPNO SU US Whale and Dolphin Pool Planned 1970 09 15 51 0 Whale Watchers Active on Coast 1971 01 17 80 0 Ban on Whaling Stuns Coast Company 1971 03 07 58 SU JP Exterminating the Whale 1971 03 28 E14 US JP SU Resolved: To Save the Whale 1971 07 29 32 US SU JP 11 Fisherwoman Hooks Whale 1971 08 29 54 0 Soviet Fleet Sails Before Pact To Protect 1971 10 08 12 SU JP 11 Whales Is Ratified End ofAmerican Whaling 1971 12 26 E8 US 11 Whaling Halt Urged in Stockholm 1972 06 10 4 SUNZDE FRZA VA PT Quotas Reduced on Whale Catch 1972 07 01 5 0 Hurt Mother Whale Rescued on Beach 1972 09 26 1 0 With Newborn Calf Baby Whale Dies After Month In 1972 10 27 82 0 Captivity at Aquarium Here Reginald B. Hegarty, 66, Whaling 1973 01 20 34 0 Historian, Is Dead Scientists Find Value In Dead Whale 1973 02 25 97 0 Here Article 6 -- No Title 1973 10 28 507 0 Letters: A Torch Might Have Saved The 1973 11 11 566 0 Arctic Whales 220 Article Title Start Country (Abridged in Some Cases) Year Month Day Page Appearance Boycott of 2 Nations' Goods Asked 1973 11 25 84 JP SU Because of Whaling Metropolitan Briefs 1973 12 12 100 0 Pregnant Whale's Fetal Heartbeats Elude 1973 12 28 33 0 Detection Alaska Whale Killed As Buckley 1974 05 26 44 0 Watches Ideas & Trends 1974 09 01 138 0 Rare Whale Dies on Beach 1974 09 03 8 0 Metropolitan Briefs 1975 05 08 43 0 Out ofThe Whale 1975 05 11 BR8 0 Books of The Times 1975 07 17 27 0 Metropolitan Briefs 1975 08 06 34 0 New Hope for Whales 1975 08 11 20 JP Aquarium Displays Its 2 Baby Whales 1975 08 22 33 0 Smaller Whales Are Expected To Be 1975 09 01 18 JPUS Next Targets ofIndustry More Dead Fish Found OffShore 1976 07 22 67 0 Folk Programs Sunday At L.I. Whaling 1977 04 01 73 0 Museum Alaskan Eskimos Angered Over Ban on 1977 10 05 8 0 Hunting of Bowhead Whales Around the Nation 1977 10 13 18 0 Whaling Group Is Urged to Reverse Cut 1977 11 29 8 JP SU IS in Quota Science Watch: Microbe Weaponry 1978 11 14 Cl 0 Mass Panic Is Linked To 56 Whales' 1979 01 14 15 0 Deaths Along Mexican Shore Big Spectator Sport: Watching the 1979 04 18 A14 0 Whales Remains of41 Beached Whales Buried 1979 06 26 AI0 0 in Sand Dunes in Oregon Beached Baby Whale Is Rescued in 1979 09 20 16 0 Oregon Around the Nation 1980 01 10 A20 0 The Region 1980 02 11 B7 0 Notes Whale-Watching in New England 1980 04 20 XX9 0 Waters Letters to the Editor 1980 07 13 XX2 0 3 221 Article Title Start Country (Abridged in Some Cases) Year Month Day Page Appearance Grand Jury Questioning Eskimos On 1980 10 25 7 0 Killing Endangered Whales Around the Nation 1980 11 24 A18 0 Gray Whales in Revival Off California 1981 01 31 8 0 Narrative Recalls Deadly Attack by 1981 02 15 26 0 Whale in 1820 Whale-Watcher's Delight: Spume in 1981 05 04 B1 0 Atlantic OffL.I Ban on Whaling Strains U.S. Relations 1982 07 28 A2 JPUS With Japan 2 Whales Beach on Cape And One Dies 1982 12 27 A12 0 There Whaling Protesters Say Chase Followed 1983 07 20 A6 SU 1G II Incursion in Siberia A Siberian Sojourn Ends Well for Foes 1983 07 25 A2 SU1R1G of Whaling Herter to Whaling Panel 1983 09 01 A3 0 Misinformed Arguments for a Total 1984 02 09 A30 JP US II Whaling Moratorium Teen-Agers Find Rare Whale Fossil 1984 06 19 C3 0 In the Whale's Wake 1984 07 22 BR7 0 Japan Suggests a Whaling Limit In 1984 08 02 A8 JP Attempt to Head OffFull Ban U.S. Reports Accord With Japan on 1984 11 11 6 JPUS Whales Riding Waves, Seeing Drama 1984 12 02 LI34 0 Soviet Icebreaker Is Trying To Rescue 1985 02 24 5 SU Trapped Whales Russians Tell Saga ofWhales Rescued 1985 03 12 C3 SU by an Icebreaker Using Inflatable Whales to Elucidate 1985 04 29 CIS 0 Economics Roaming Whale Enlivens the Sound 1985 09 08 CN20 0 Whale Clears a Hurdle For Return to 1985 10 26 8 0 Ocean Reagan Is Told ofNorwegian Whaling 1986 06 10 A16 N01G Infractions Iceland, Voicing Anger, Halts All 1986 07 29 AS IS US Whaling 222 Article Title Start Country (Abridged in Some Cases) Year Month Day Page Appearance Iceland Expresses Anger At U.S. in 1986 07 30 A5 IS Whale Dispute Whaling Ships Refloated in Iceland 1986 11 20 A7 0 Soviet Says It Is Giving Up Commercial 1987 05 24 1 SU 1G Whaling U.S. Effort to Stop Whaling For 1987 06 23 B8 IS JP US Research Brings Protest NO lapan, Defying Protests, Pushes Whaling 1987 08 02 6 JP IS KR Plan Increase in Whales Puzzles Scientists 1987 08 16 LI1 0 Whale Expedition Defended 1988 02 19 A6 JPII 'Whale Rescue,' Escape And a Happy 1988 03 08 C18 0 Ending 2 Say Method Averts Need To Kill 1988 05 31 C4 lP US II Whales for Research It's Showtime for Baby Whale 1988 09 24 6 0 Whale Trapped in Net Freed 1988 10 24 A13 0 What 3 Whales Did to the Human Heart 1988 11 06 Ell 0 Aquarium Trying to Save a Stranded 1988 12 22 B2 0 Whale Publishing 1989 06 26 D6 0 Scrimshaw, With No Threat to Whales 1989 08 03 C3 0 Carcasses of23 Gray Whales Wash Up 1990 07 16 A10 0 on Islands in Alaska Fiction 1991 05 12 BR18 0 Up to Her Elbow in Alligators 1991 12 29 BR7 0 Nothing Wasted but the Whale 1992 02 23 BR26 0 A Whale: Food for Deep Thought, or lust 1992 04 06 A4 JP Food? Whale Killed in New Hunt 1992 07 07 A8 NO Be It a Whale or a Dinosaur, Can LB.M. 1992 09 06 FlO 0 Really Evolve? The Messy Science ofCetology 1993 02 21 SM4 0 4 For Children 1993 04 02 C31 0 Commission to Save Whales 1993 05 18 C4 NO lP IS Endangered, Too Whale Watching 1993 06 06 XXI 0 2 223 Article Title Start Country (Abridged in Some Cases) Year Month Day Page Appearance Stray Whale Is Herded Toward Uncertain 1993 08 04 B6 0 Fate Norwegians Claim Their Whaling Rights 1993 08 07 1 IGNODE The Minke Whale 1993 08 07 2 0 Imagining a heroine for Hanukkah A tale 1993 12 10 C34 0 offive Hannahs Seeing things... Fossils Point to a Walking Ancestor of 1994 01 14 A25 0 Whales A Tribe Sees Hope In Whale Hunting, 1995 06 04 1 0 But U.S. Is Worried Whales and Boys in Risky Environments 1995 07 19 CI0 0 At Twin Lights, Keeping Memories of 1996 05 12 NB 0 Whale Oil Burning Central Park Whale Faces Tattered 1997 05 26 27 0 Retirement Over the Airwaves: All-Whale Radio 1997 10 04 A4 0 Winter Whale-Watching OffBaja 1997 10 19 154 0 Scientists Report Rare Attack by Killer 1997 11 09 26 0 Whales on Sperm Whales Castoff Whale Washes Up on a New 1997 11 30 CY8 0 Shore Whale Hunt Protesters Are Arrested by 1998 11 02 A19 IS Police Conservationists Who Oppose Tribal 1998 11 26 A40 IS Whale Hunt Remove Boat A Boston Firebrand Alienates His Allies 1999 01 23 A9 0 Even as He Saves Whales Microsoft Hunts Its Whale, the Digital 1999 05 10 Cl 0 Set-Top Box Family Fare 2000 07 28 E35 0 U.S. to Move Against Japan Over 2000 09 13 A6 JP Whales Liberties 2000 11 29 A35 0 Like a Bird, Like a Whale, Like the Wind 2001 05 06 AR22 0 The View From Mystic 2001 07 01 CT2 0 Gray Whales Rebound For West Coast 2002 03 18 A16 0 Ritual Japan Cuts Whaling Rights For Native 2002 05 25 A4 JP Peoples ofArctic Swimming in the Sea ofMemory 2003 06 15 CY3 0 2003 11 10 B3 Start Year Month Day Page Article Title (Abridged in Some Cases) A Whale Stops By, But Doesn't Stay Long Thar She Blows! Researchers Say A New Species ofWhale Is Found Table 9. 2003 11 20 A10 224 Country Appearance o JP Codes for Non-State Actors ofInterest in New York Times Text FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED IF NATIONS 1G GREENPEACE IR RAINBOW WARRIERS 11 INTERNATIONAL WHALING COMMISSION IS SEA SHEPHARD CONSERVATION GROUP 225 APPENDIXB GOOGLE NEWS SEARCH DATA Google News was searched and data were compiled on May 6, 2009. The search terms involved country names in combination with "whale" to determine the number of articles describing both the country with the whaling issue in the title. Only news sources were searched during the process, eliminating other internet sources. Tables 10 and 11 present the data developed for countries used in the project. Table 10. Google News Search Article Count (1920-1946, 2-Year Intervals) Year DE GB JP NO US CA ZA IE NZ AU 1920 17 15 17 7 38 12 26 5 7 18 1922 26 25 19 17 57 15 24 9 19 29 1924 22 27 24 34 81 18 23 9 26 43 1926 38 48 39 93 120 37 19 5 57 67 1928 40 69 34 131 166 37 33 7 88 115 1930 27 53 32 79 115 31 28 14 42 68 1932 21 18 26 33 68 18 19 9 28 46 1934 23 26 32 40 66 9 17 6 23 44 1936 42 35 57 32 80 17 27 7 21 38 1938 67 59 58 53 96 18 20 17 18 28 1940 34 46 24 45 80 11 3 12 8 16 1942 5 19 14 12 34 6 7 7 2 9 1944 12 4640 31 36 23 17 4 26 46 Table 11. Google News Search Article Count (1970-1980, 2-Year Intervals) Country 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 total Seychelles 0 0 0 0 9 9 18 Sweden 4 6 6 2 11 12 41 Peru 11 8 15 7 18 22 81 Chile 9 5 9 7 15 17 62 Spain 7 6 17 14 19 33 96 226 227 REFERENCES Adcock, R., & Collier, D. (2001). Measurement validity: A shared standard for qualitative and quantitative research. American Political Science Review, 95(3), 529-546. Adger, W. 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