COMPREHENSIVE PLAN FOR THE CITY OF WINSTON CITY COUNCIL MEMBERS 2003 Rex Stevens, Mayor Dick Hayes ? Bev Heyer ? Laura Duncan ? Larry Wait PLANNING COMMISSION MEMBERS 2003 Ken McGinnis, Chair Jim McClellan ? Gene Landolt ? Christopher Smith ? Don Richardson Lloyd Stutsman ? John Turner ASSISTED BY THE UMPQUA REGIONAL COUNCIL OF GOVERNMENTS Funding for this Project was provided by the OREGON DEPARTMENT OF LAND CONSERVATION DEPARTMENT DLCD Grant No. Periodic Review-U-03-166 Adopted June 23, 2003 ORDINANCE NO. 588 Table of Contents Page Introduction 1 Natural Features 4 Slope and Geologic Hazard 4 Soils 4 Flood Hazard 5 Air, Land and Water Quality 5 Air Quality 5 Noise 5 Land Quality 6 Water Quality 6 Vegetation and Wildlife Habitat 7 Historic Sites 7 Mineral and Aggregate Resources 8 Natural Features Goals and Policies 9 Population 11 Community Profile 13 Economy 18 Human Resources 18 Natural Resources 21 Industrial Opportunities 25 Other Economic Opportunities 26 Land Use 27 Infrastructure 27 Outlook 27 Economy Goals and Policies 28 Housing 30 Housing Data Sources 30 Physical Condition Survey 30 Housing Type Data 34 Housing Need 37 Future Housing 38 Information Update 38 Housing Goals and Policies 39 Public Facilities and Services 41 Energy Conservation 41 Public Facilities Goals and Policies 43 Land Use and Urbanization 45 Overview 45 Land Use Standards and Design 45 Residential Designations 47 Other Uses Within Residential Areas 49 Commercial Designations 50 Current Land Uses 52 Urbanization and the Urban Growth Boundary 53 The Future Land Use Plan 53 Buildable Lands Inventory 57 Implementation and Update Reviews 59 Land Use Goals and Policies 61 List of Tables Page Table 1 ? Population Trends 11 Table 2 ? Projected Population Growth 12 Table 3 ? Projected Population Growth 12 Table 4 ? Projected Population Growth 12 Table 5 ? Projected Population Growth 12 Table 6 ? Demographic Trends 14 Table 7 ? Poverty Rates 16 Table 8 ? Median Income 17 Table 9 ? Household Income 17 Table 10 ? Employment Characteristics 20 Table 11 ? Housing Survey 33 Table 12 ? Housing Type 34 Table 13 ? Age of Housing 34 Table 14 ? Number of Bedrooms in Dwellings 35 Table 15 ? Owner/Renter Occupied 36 Table 16 ? Prefer Renting/Buying 36 Table 17 ? Housing Values, Owner Occupied 2000 37 Table 18 ? Land Use 52 Table 19 ? Housing Mix and Projected Units by Type 55 Table 20 ? Residential Zoning Classifications and Development Densities 56 Table 21 ? Residential Land Needs 56 Table 22 ? Commercial Land Needs 56 Table 23 ? Future Land Use Needs and Available Lands 58 Table 24 ? Future Land Use Needs and Available Lands 58 INTRODUCTION This comprehensive plan was developed to chart the community's future growth through the year 2022. It anticipates the community's future needs and concerns and presents actions to deal with them. Many studies, deliberations, and conclusions are reflected in this plan. This comprehensive plan was also prepared in accordance with the Land Conservation and Development Commission (LCDC) Goals and Guidelines. Those guidelines prescribe certain requirements for all comprehensive plans in the State of Oregon. HOW THE COMPREHENSIVE PLAN IS ORGANIZED This is Volume I of a two-volume document, which comprises the Comprehensive Plan. Volume I consists of the Comprehensive Plan. Volume II consists of the background and supporting documents including the Map Appendix. It contains all the information maps done as part of the inventory of the City and the study area. In addition to these documents, the City has adopted a Public Facility Plan. Where conflicts may occur between the Comprehensive Plan or Public Facilities Plan and the Support Document, the plans should take precedence. This report, as well as the Map Appendix, Public Facility Plan, Appendix and the Support Document are available at City Hall. The chapter headings for the Comprehensive Plan include: Natural Features, Population, Economy, Housing, Public Facilities and Services, and Land Use and Urbanization. Each chapter contains an explanation of the subjects covered, sources of information or studies, summaries of the information and the City's goals and policies applicable to those subjects. HOW THE PLAN WAS DEVELOPED Development of the plan proceeded in stages. First, the study area was outlined. Next, studies of physical and cultural features of the community and study area were collected and analyzed. From this analysis were drawn the problems, issues, and projections of future growth. The policies, growth projections, and inventory of buildable lands were then combined to produce a map designating areas of growth. The final stage in the process is a review of all ordinances and other implementation measures to ensure that they carry out the intentions of the plan. COMPREHENSIVE PLAN POLICIES Each section of the Comprehensive Plan contains policy statements. The City intends to apply each of these statements, as applicable, to the evaluation of land use change proposals, development plans, extensions of municipal services and other programs and activities. The policies are mandatory, in the sense that each applicable policy statement will be considered. The City Council must always weigh the public interest, state-wide planning goals and possibly conflicting policies or regulations when judging such activities or programs. The City of Winston ensures opportunity for public participation in the preparation and implementation of its comprehensive plan through adherence to its adopted Citizens Involvement Program. CITIZEN INVOLVEMENT PROGRAM Representation from both the City and its surrounding area was obtained in a series of Town Hall Meetings on the Statewide Planning Goals. Numerous public meetings were held during the preparation of the plan. All meetings were properly noticed and held in the Winston Community Building. Records of all meetings are on file at City Hall. Local, State, and Federal agencies were given the opportunity to review and comment on the proposed Winston plan. State law requires that other local, State, and federal agencies abide by the Comprehensive Plan for Winston whenever their actions affect the City. PERIODIC REVIEW The Land Conservation and Development Commission acknowledged the City of Winston?s Comprehensive Plan and implementing ordinances in April 1983. The City's Public Facility Plan was adopted in 1986. According to the state's periodic review requirements and schedule, Winston is required to review its plans and implementing ordinances, make the revisions necessary to account for changing circumstances, and new state laws and regulations. This process is called periodic review. The City of Winston received its first periodic review notice from DLCD on August 31, 1988. The Winston Planning Commission spent approximately one year in meetings discussing and refining the periodic review findings of fact, and the required revisions to the comprehensive plan, public facility plan, and implementing ordinances. Public hearings were held with the Planning Commission, City Council, Douglas County Planning Commission, and the Douglas County Board of Commissioners on the periodic review material. The City completed its periodic review process in 1990. This first periodic review (1988-89) for the City of Winston was funded in part by a Land Conservation and Development Commission periodic review grant. Umpqua Regional Council of Governments acted as staff for the City in the review process. On January 31, 1996, the DLCD directed the City of Winston to begin the state-mandated Periodic Review of its Comprehensive Plan and implementing ordinances. The Periodic Work Program was developed in response to the Periodic Review Evaluation conducted in the spring of 1998. During the evaluation phase, a broad-based community "roundtable" meeting was held to initiate public involvement in the Periodic Review. Meeting participants included representatives from the Winston City Council, the Winston Planning Commission, City staff, and numerous special purpose advisory boards. On September 11, 2000, the City of Winston and Umpqua Regional Council of Governments (UR-COG) entered into an IGA directing the UR-COG to prepare this Periodic Review based upon the prepared proposed Periodic Review Work Program and subsequent revisions made on March 15, 1999. DEVELOPMENT BACKGROUND Although Winston and Dillard are often regarded as a single community, they developed independently. In the last century Dillard was a growing, small town, while Winston (then known as Civil Bend or Coos Junction) was nearly undeveloped. Completion of the railroad bridging over the South Umpqua River, and the expansion of agriculture both stimulated growth in the area. Winston itself did not experience appreciable growth until the close of World War II, when lumber mills came to the area. Roseburg Lumber Company's Dillard facility was started in 1947. Many new workers chose Winston to live in, and landholders subdivided and sold lots. In 1948, the Winston-Dillard Water District was established followed by the Winston-District Fire District in 1950. In the same year, the Winston-Dillard School District consolidated. By 1951 the Post Office was reopened, and water lines were installed. The City was incorporated in 1953. Since then Winston has served as a residential community and retail trade center for the surrounding area. In 1972 the Wildlife Safari, one of Oregon's major tourist attractions, was opened. It brought a new dimension to the economy of the area. NATURAL FEATURES The slope, geologic hazards, soils, flood hazards, qualities of air, land and water, vegetation and wildlife, and historic resources of the Winston area are covered in this chapter. The respective sections on these subjects describe the influence each has on physical development and its importance to land use planning. Within the Map Appendix there are many maps that relate to this chapter. They include: Geologic Setting, Natural Hazards, Slope; Generalized Soils; Agricultural Capability (Soil); Urban Suitability; Woodland Suitability; Vegetation and Wildlife Habitat. SLOPE AND GEOLOGIC HAZARD The steepness of the terrain often determines the ability to develop a site. Other features affecting potential development are geologic foundation and soil characteristics. Generally slopes up to 12 percent grade are suitable for most urban uses. Exceptions to this are commercial and industrial developments, which usually require less than a 5 percent slope. When building on slopes over 12 percent average grade, extra engineering and design work will be needed. On slopes over 25 percent in grade, development must be carefully examined because the potential for damage to both the proposed structures and the stability of the hillside is greatly increased. A licensed engineering geologist should be consulted and special design features incorporated into the project. The following slope map (Map 2) was developed utilizing data from the U.S. Geological Survey (U.S.G.S.) Topological Map and soils information gathered in the field. It is clear from this map that the degree of slope in certain areas of the UGB is a controlling factor in development potential. Within the Winston UGB, areas of slope in excess of 25 percent are located near Dillard along the South Umpqua River and its tributaries and north of Lookingglass Road including Wildlife Safari. There are also a few areas within the UGB in the 12 to 25 percent range. SOILS One of the major goals of this land use plan is to preserve and maintain agricultural and forest lands as much as reasonably possible. Winston and most of Douglas County depend heavily upon the economic, recreational and other benefits of timber and agricultural or timber production. Not all areas, however, are equally valuable for either agriculture or timber production. Some land may have to be considered for urbanization. Soils information is a key factor for determining which lands should be preserved for agriculture and timber or designated for urbanization if needed. Soil maps were prepared from surveys, which rated soils for agriculture or timber potential. The map on agricultural capability was prepared from the soil survey done by a consultant. He utilized the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Soil Conservation Service classification system. In the S.C.S. System, soils are evaluated and given a class rating from Roman numerals I through VIII. Class I is the best soil for cultivated crops, and Class IV is the least suitable but still productive. Classes V through VIII are not recommended for cultivation but have decreasing suitability for grazing. Class I lands should be given the highest priority for preservation as agriculture with decreasing priorities for Class II through IV lands. The map on forestlands was drawn from the Soil Conservation Service's OR- 1 sheets. The U.S. Forest Service has not mapped Douglas County; otherwise, their survey would have been used. On the OR-1 sheets soil units are given a site index that indicates the potential productivity based on average height of dominant trees 100 years old. Douglas Fir is the primary commercial tree in Douglas County. No site class was given for soils in cropland. The soil information also included a class 0ification of suitability for urban development. This mapping is meant to show potential problem areas for development. Additional engineering and careful site design may be necessary in these mapped areas. FLOOD HAZARD Flooding can be a hazard to buildings and developments near almost any stream. The major flood hazards in this area occur along the South Umpqua River, Lookingglass Creek, Applegate Creek and Brockway Creek. The City of Winston participates in the National Flood Insurance Program and has adopted a floodplain ordinance to implement the program. The studies done to qualify for the Flood Insurance Program included mapping the floodplain of the rivers and major streams. The floodplain are shown on the "Geologic Setting, Natural Hazards, and Slope" map (see Map Appendix.) and shown on the Future Land Use and the Zoning maps. AIR, LAND AND WATER QUALITY Environmental quality is the subject of increasing concern these days. The effects of growth and urban development have sometimes brought on considerable pollution and other undesirable consequences. Our challenge is to provide for growth while avoiding or minimizing the adverse consequences. Information for this study and the 1988 and 2001 updates came from the Roseburg Office of the State Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ), the Douglas County Health and Social Services Department, and the Watermaster for Douglas County. DEQ provided information on the air, land, and water environments, and the Health and Social Services Department supplemented that with information on subsurface sewage disposal problems. The Watermaster provided information on water quality considerations. AIR QUALITY There is no significant air pollution in the Winston area, and the air-shed meets Federal and State ambient air quality standards. The Roseburg Forest Products plant in Dillard is the major source of potential air pollutants, but it is meeting State air quality standards at its current level of operations. Air quality monitoring may be conducted periodically to determine if acceptable levels are being maintained. During the periodic review process in 1988, the Department of Environmental Quality was again contacted regarding the air quality in Winston. It was determined that the conditions mentioned above are still in effect. The air shed of the Winston area presently meets all federal and state ambient air quality standards. NOISE The need for attention to noise in the planning process results from a greater awareness of the impact of noise on human health and well-being. The spread of noisy activities into formerly quiet areas and the detectable increase in levels of background noise have contributed to this growing awareness. The major sources of excessive noise are: a. Airports (civilian and military) b. Railroads and rail terminals c. Freeways and highways d. Large industrial factories e. Other local activities, which have a known history of producing excessive noise. Review of the Winston Urban Growth Area shows that only major noise sources at this time are highways. State Highway 42 (the Roseburg-Coos Bay Highway) runs through the middle of town. It is laid out in an east-west direction from the coast, entering Winston at the west entrance to the City, running north at its junction with County Road 387 (formerly Highway 99), and terminating at Interstate 5. County Road 387 begins where Highway 42 heads north and runs south through Winston and Dillard. The adjoining areas along these highways are designated on the Future Land Use Map primarily as retail commercial, which provides a buffer for the more noise-sensitive residential areas. This is a general observation not verified by a noise survey. This observation is assumed to be valid until proven otherwise by complaints to the City. The City will conduct a noise survey as soon as practicable after receiving such complaints to obtain more objective information. When such a study indicates noise-related problems, the City shall pursue such measures necessary to eliminate or improve any problems. Presently, noise complaints are handled on an individual basis. When such problems are brought forward, the City shall pursue such measures necessary to eliminate or reduce them through enforcement of the City's Public Protection Code, chapter 4-11.11, Unnecessary Noise. LAND QUALITY The only site identified where land quality could potentially be affected is the Roseburg Forest Products solid waste disposal area. That operation is well-managed and no problems are anticipated. During plan development, the Health and Social Services Department identified one problem area for septic systems. It extended generally from Winston Section Road to Highway 99 north of Thompson Avenue. Restrictive clay layers near the surface cause a perched water table in winter. There were numerous system failures in this area. In 1980, the sewer interceptor line was completed by the City in the above-mentioned area. Another area that may eventually be in need of a sewage system is Dillard. Most of Dillard is served by the Winston-Dillard Water District water system, so there is not an immediate serious problem of contamination of drinking water; however, the lot sizes and past experience indicate that there is a potential problem. A survey of approximately 90 residences and businesses in the Dillard area was undertaken in 1972 by Douglas County. In all, about ten percent of the systems, including residential and commercial, were estimated to be substandard at that time. Another forty showed signs of malfunctioning, but were not conclusively shown to be malfunctioning. It is expected that at least a portion of the forty have since become substandard. The number of units that have been repaired is unknown, but it can be assumed that there are still a substantial number of substandard systems. Residents in the Dillard area have expressed no desire to annex to the City of Winston. WATER QUALITY The original city sewage treatment plant periodically failed to meet State water quality standards, especially during low flows in the summer. As a result, the City of Winston went into partnership with the Green Sanitary District and Douglas County, in August of 1980 in order to construct a new regional sewer plant. Completion of the regional treatment facility has resulted in elimination of the water quality problems. The facility recently completed a $5.6 M upgrade, which improved the affluent discharge into the South Umpqua River. The facility is meeting the State's present standards of 10 milligrams per liter Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) and 10 milligrams per liter Suspended Solids in the summer months and 30 BOD in the winter months. Conversations with DEQ indicate there have been no water quality problems identified in the area. The Roseburg DEQ office noted the plant is well operated. There is only one other identified water quality problem in the Winston area. During the low flows in the summer and fall months, the water quality in the South Umpqua River decreases, creating a condition in which swimming may be hazardous to the public health. As a result, the County Health and Social Services Department issues advisories warning the public not to swim in the river. VEGETATION AND WILDLIFE HABITAT Six categories of vegetation were identified for this study area. They are: Riparian; Douglas Fir/Mixed; Deciduous/Evergreen Hardwoods; Agriculture/Grasslands; Orchards; and Urban Areas. These six also define wildlife habitat categories. Only three categories- Riparian, Agriculture/Grasslands, and Deciduous/Evergreen Hardwoods are significant. A list of the animal inhabitants of these vegetation categories was provided by the Roseburg office of the State Department of Fish and Wildlife and is contained in the Support Document. The most important habitat is the Riparian (meaning situated along a stream or river). Water-dependent plant species, such as Willow, Cottonwood, Alder, and Aspen Trees, are dominant along water-courses. This type of vegetation is important because it decreases erosion by stabilizing stream banks. This habitat also provides food and cover for both game and non-game animals. Riparian vegetation also helps maintain water temperatures in streams for certain fish species. The Winston area has a rich yet undistinguished natural environment. The area contains no unique or significant habitat areas designated for protection or conservation, nor does the area contain waterways or wetlands designated by Federal or State inventories. Although the existing wildlife habitat in Winston does not provide for any endangered or threatened species, native wildlife is present. A complete list of wildlife species, provided by the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife, is found in the Support Document. One natural area of particular concern to the city of Winston is the area encompassing Wildlife Safari and adjacent properties. The rolling hills surrounding Wildlife Safari provides a mix of deciduous and evergreen tree species. This area provides a habitat for local animal species and a natural buffer for the ?managed ecosystem? of Wildlife Safari. The citizens of Winston recognize the importance of Wildlife Safari as a unique natural feature and will continue to make every possible effort to protect and enhance this important resource. HISTORIC SITES The Brockway Store at the southwest corner of State Highway 42 and Brockway Road is listed on the State of Oregon Inventory of Historic Sites and Buildings. For this reason it is designated "Special Historic Commercial Zone" and is protected from loss of historic value. In addition to the state inventory the City reviewed the Historical Survey of Douglas County. There were no sites or buildings of historic value indicated for this UGB area. Upon review of the urban growth area by long time residents on the advisory committee, it was determined that there was only a building that old - a schoolhouse at 11 Brosi Orchard Road. The schoolhouse some years ago was converted to a residence and has several alterations, which significantly change its architectural appearance. The building is presently in a deteriorated condition. For these reasons the schoolhouse was determined to not have significant historic value. An archaeologically significant site is located in T28 R6 S29 along the South Umpqua River where there is evidence of an Indian Camp.. This site will remain open space. The State Historic Preservation Office indicates that development of the adjacent area for a golf course will not disturb the site as long as there is not significant excavation in the immediate vicinity of the site. The site is protected from disturbance by State law and by Goal D of the Natural Features chapter of this Plan. No other historic sites were designated. MINERAL AND AGGREGATE RESOURCES The Douglas County Mineral Resources Inventory identifies one mineral resource site within the urban growth boundary. Sand deposits are located in the southwestern quadrant of T28 R6 S9. This resource has been classified as a Goal 5 Class 1B resource, meaning that information regarding the quality and quantity of the resource are lacking. The Mineral Inventory does identify a possible conflict the Wildlife Safari. The City acknowledges this resource and will conduct an analysis of economic, social, environmental, and energy factors should a conflict arise between the use of this resource and other land use activities. NATURAL FEATURES Goals and Policies A. GOAL: TO PRESERVE AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST LANDS, USING FOR URBANIZATION ONLY THOSE AREAS WITH LOW AGRICULTURAL CAPABILITY AND LOW SEPTIC SUITABILITY. POLICIES: *1. Except where other uses already predominate, encourage the planting and careful management of Douglas Fir forests on lands suitable for their growth. *2. Where additional lands outside the UGB are considered for urbanization, areas of Class V - VIII agricultural soils should be given first priority. *3. Areas where failing septic systems are numerous should have first priority among those areas of poor agricultural capability outside the city limits to receive sewer service and other urban services subject to city service requirements. 4. The City shall comply with all applicable state and federal environmental regulations. B. GOAL: TO PREVENT INAPPROPRIATE DEVELOPMENT IN NATURAL HAZARD AREAS POLICIES: *1. Require that plans for construction in areas of potential slope or soil hazard be reviewed and signed by a licensed engineering geologist. 2. Floodways shall be protected from encroachment by the provisions of the Zoning Ordinance. 3. Development within the "flood fringe" shall be strongly discouraged and subject to the provisions of the City's "Floodplain Ordinance." 4. Areas immediately outside the City's Urban Growth Boundary but within the floodplain should be discouraged from further development. 5. The City shall comply with all applicable State and Federal environmental regulations. C. GOAL: TO PROTECT WINSTON'S ENVIRONMENT BY CONSERVING VEGETATION, WILDLIFE AND WATER RESOURCES. POLICIES: 1. Winston shall protect the South Umpqua River, Lookingglass Creek, Applegate Creek, and Brockway Creek within its UGB by controlling the removal of riparian vegetation along their watercourses. 2. Advocate compliance with Oregon Forest Products Act and other relevant legislature for the reforestation of previously forested lands. 3. Discourage radical changes in existing wildlife habitats. 4. Advocate a program to heighten citizen awareness on the importance of water conservation. 5. Encourage the adoption by the appropriate governmental body of regulations requiring the rehabilitation of aggregate mining sites. 6. The City shall comply with all state and federal environmental regulations. * Related to Land Use policies. D. GOAL: TO CONSERVE HISTORIC RESOURCES IN THE WINSTON AREAS. POLICIES: 1. Winston shall protect historic sites and resources where practicable from conflicting uses and loss of historic values. E. GOAL: TO PRESERVE MINERAL AND AGGREGATE RESOURCES IN THE AREA. POLICIES: 1. Winston shall protect mineral and aggregate resources where practicable from conflicting land uses. 2. Winston shall conduct an analysis of economic, social, environmental, and energy factors whenever land use conflicts arise between mineral and aggregate extraction and other land uses. F. GOAL: TO PRESERVE THE NATURAL CHARACTER OF LANDS IN AND AROUND WILDLIFE SAFARI AND SAFARI ROAD. POLICIES: 1. Agricultural and forest lands north of Lookingglass Road shall be zoned as Agricultural/Open Space and a 50 acre minimum lot size will be preserved through use of the City's Large Lot Overlay Zone. 2. Winston will coordinate with Douglas County and the Cow Creek Band of Umpqua Tribe of Indians regarding review and approval of development proposals within the defined "Areas of Mutual Concern" bordering the UGB. These special areas include farmlands located east of Safari Road and the existing Winston UGB as well as agricultural and forest lands located north and west of the UGB and Wildlife Safari. The purpose of this review and approval process is to identify and minimize potential adverse impacts to Wildlife Safari resulting from development in these areas. 3. Any requests for a zone change in this area will require a plan amendment and application of the Statewide Planning Goals, as required by state law. POPULATION Population increase is the basic indicator of a city's growth. A reasonably accurate projection of future population is essential to determine the amount of urbanizable land needed and future levels of community services. To determine a reasonable projection, the City studied its historic population trends and the capacities of key public facilities. A comparison of these findings to the available population projections was made before deciding on a growth projection. Winston continues to have one of the highest population growth rates in Douglas County and has seen substantial growth over the last decade. Between 1990 and 2000, Winston's population increased from 3,773 to 4,613 residents, an increase of more than 22 percent (second only to Sutherlin).1 Remarkably, the growth rate was higher than the rapid 18.4 percent growth of Oregon as a whole over this period. Winston's population increase is even more explosive compared to Douglas County's 6.6 percent growth over the same period, which reflected the decline below 1990 levels for the populations of three of Douglas County's incorporated cities. In contrast, the rural areas of the county have had a slight loss of population since the beginning of the decade. Unincorporated areas are down 973, or by negative two percent. The loss is not unexpected, since many rural areas were more dependent on timber than the more economically diverse cities and towns. The substantial loss of jobs in the wood products industry over the period has caused out-migration from rural areas.2 TABLE 1 compares the population for Winston, Douglas County and the sate as a whole during this period. TABLE 1 POPULATION TRENDS WINSTON, DOUGLAS COUNTY, AND OREGON 1970 ? 2000 Winston Douglas County Oregon Year Population AAGR* Population AAGR Population AAGR 1970 2,468 NA 71,743 NA 2,091,385 NA 1980 3,359 +3.1% 93,748 +2.7% 2,633,105 +2.4% 1990 3,773 +1.2% 94,649 +0.1% 2,842,321 +0.8% 2000 4,613 +2.03% 100,399 +0.59% 3,365,900 +1.7% * Average annual growth rate Surprisingly the growth in Winston is not new. Since 1970, the City has grown from the 2,468 people to the present 4,613 for an average annual growth rate of 2.11% or total growth rate of 86.91%. In combination, the numbers demonstrate that Winston's growth has sustained itself for a long period (30 years) and the City should expect continued population gains. In order to effectively plan for future land use needs, it is important to develop estimates of future population. Such projections are not intended to predict an exact population figure, but are meant to provide a general description of population at some later date as a means of guiding planning activities. Typically, communities in Oregon use a planning period of approximately twenty years as a framework for developing population projections. With that in mind, we have developed a population projection for Winston for the year 2022. 1 U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2000 Census, "Profile of General Demographic Characteristics: 2000;" U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1990 Census, "General Population and Housing Characteristics." 2 Oregon Employment Department, "2000 Regional Economic Profile: Region 6 ? Douglas." Available at www.olmis.org/articles. Historic growth trends are often used as the basis for developing future population projections. Projections based on past trends assume that historic conditions that affect population growth, such as the health of the local economy, will be replicated at some future point. The following tables present projected population growth of the City of Winston over the next 20 years. TABLE 2 extrapolates continued growth based on the historic level from 1990 to 2000. TABLE 3 reflects the rate of growth since 1980 and TABLE 4, the rate of growth since 1970. The fifth table reflects a growth rate for Winston based on Douglas County growth and is much lower than the previous three tables. TABLE 2 Projected Population Growth: At City's 1990 Level of 2.03% Annual Growth Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2022 Winston: 4,613 5,101 5,640 6,236 6,895 7,179 TABLE 3 Projected Population Growth: At City's Level of 1.6% Annual Growth Since 1980 Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2022 Winston: 4,613 4,994 5,407 5,853 6,337 6,541 TABLE 4 Projected Population Growth: At City's Level of 2.11% Annual Growth Since 1970 Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2022 Winston: 4,613 5,121 5,684 6,310 7,004 7,301 TABLE 5 Projected Population Growth: At County's 1990s Level of 0.066% Annual Growth Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2022 Winston: 4,613 4,767 4,927 5,091 5,262 5,332 Between 1970 and 2000, Winston's population grew at an annual rate of 2.11%. This rate reflects the high growth rate period between 1970 and 1980 when timber and wood products industries did not face the restrictions they currently operate under. And according to the 1991 Business and Employment Outlook published by the State of Oregon Employment Division, improved economic conditions in the 1970s had reversed the previous trend of net out-migration throughout Douglas County, causing an abnormally large increase in the population. However, using annual the growth rate from 1970 to 2000 of 2.11% and the 2000 Census population total of 4,613 persons, the projected population of Winston in 2022 is 7,301. A more conservative estimate can be developed using the annual growth rate of 1.6% experienced by Winston since 1980. During this time, Douglas County experienced economic dislocation between 1980 and 1983 resulting from the recession in the lumber and wood products and primary metals industries. While economic conditions improved later in the decade, population growth was considerably lower throughout the county. Using the 2000 Census population total of 4,613 persons and an annual growth rate of 1.6%, the projected population of Winston in 2022 is 6,541. Both of these projections have limitations. If we use the high estimate, we are ignoring the most recent, slower growth rate (of 2.03%). Yet, if we use the low estimate, we would be omitting the possibility of another economic upswing such as that experienced during the 1970's. A safer approach would be to assume that future conditions and thus population growth will fall somewhere between the two extremes. Based on this assumption, we have chosen the midpoint between these two projections as the most accurate estimate of Winston's population in the year 2022. The midpoint between the high projection of 7,301 and the low projection of 6,541 results in an estimated population for Winston in the year 2022 of 6,921 residents representing an average annual growth rate for the twenty two year period between 2000 and 2022 of 1.86%. The primary public water facility is potentially capable of servicing the projected 2022 population level of 6,921. The present water sources (not including Ben Irving or Galesville Reservoirs) can provide for 7,000 people with minimum flow restrictions in effect and using a maximum figure of 200 gallons per person per day. It is important to note however, that the Winston-Dillard Water District serves Winston?s domestic water needs, and Winston and Dillard residents share the currently available supply. As of 2001, the Water District reports regular service levels of 6,000 residents (in the Winston and Dillard areas combined.) While construction on two new holding tanks was completed in 2002, the reservoirs will not increase the 7,000 resident customer service capacity. The installation of more than eight miles of water lines is intended to serve residents along Rice and Willis creeks, an area annexed by the Water District in 1997. Residents of the area are currently served by individual private wells, and untreated surface water.3 The Water District has no further plans to expand at this time. The primary public sewer facility is capable of servicing the projected 2022 population level of 6,921, as the waste treatment capacity for water is even greater. The regional sewer plant currently serves 8,000 residential users, plus various public, semi-public, commercial, and industrial users in the Winston Green area. The plant's design capacity is for approximately 16,000 users. Even if this design capacity was halved with the Green Sanitary District, the City will have adequate sewage service for the additional growth. Expansion of the plant with another on-site treatment unit could double capacity. Another factor, which favors growth in Winston, is its close proximity to industrial bases of major employment. The City realizes that actual population growth may vary from the adopted projection. For this reason, the Planning Commission, during the periodic review process every five to seven years, will update population statistics and trends, and recommend adjustments to the plan as necessary. COMMUNITY PROFILE [The information from the 1970 Census indicates that Winston at that time had a relatively young populace with an average age of 24.6 years. The average household size at 3.34 persons/household is larger than the County-wide average, and the dominant household type was the young family. The 1976 survey indicates a shift since 1970 toward smaller, older households. Since the percentage of 65 years and older sector changed little, it seems that there was no influx of retired persons. The aging of the population by 1976 was due primarily to lower birth rates.] According to the 2000 Census, Winston has a racially homogeneous population. Of the 4,613 people residing in Winston, 94.6% of those were white. The largest minority population, American Indian or Alaskan Native, makes up only 2.9% of the City's population. The Hispanic and Latino population follows closely at 2.8%. The remainder of the non-white category was comprised of 15 black or African- Americans (0.3%), 39 Asian and Pacific Islanders (0.8%), and 69 in the other category. This is reflective of the racial characteristics of Douglas County as a whole. The county?s population can also be considered racially homogeneous with 96.5% of the population being white. Like Winston, the county's largest minority population is American Indian or Alaskan Native (3.4%). This is a change from the 1990 Census, where the county's largest minority population was Hispanic at 1.9%. Although no longer the largest minority, the Hispanic or Latino population in the county has increased since 1990 and now comprises 3.3% of the population. These figures are very similar to those of Winston and, like Winston, have not changed much since the last census. [According to the 1990 Census, Winston has a racially homogeneous population. Of the 3,773 people residing in Winston, 96% of those were white, 2.37% were non -white, and 2.7% of that total were of Hispanic origin. The non-white category was comprised of 9 blacks, 77 American Indian, 31 Asian and Pacific Islander, and 24 in the Other category. There was a total of 102 persons of Hispanic origin. Oregon 3 USDA Rural Development, "News Release ? Winston Dillard Water District taps USDA funds for new water system," January 10, 2001. ranked thirteenth in the United States in 1980 in terms of the percentage of its population that was white. The Douglas County population can also be considered racially homogeneous with 97.5% of the population being white. The largest minority population is Spanish American at 1.9%. (3) These figures are very similar to those of Winston.] While there has not been much change in Winston's racial characteristics in the last decade, many other aspects of the community have changed since 1990. Concerning housing characteristics, the number of households in Winston increased by 25.5% from 1990 to 2000. This was a greater increase than that of the previous decade. From 1980 to 1990 the number of households increased 19.6%, down from the ra pid increase seen between 1970 and 1980, in which the number of households in Winston increased by 39.7%. (See TABLE 6.) TABLE 6 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS WINSTON AND DOUGLAS COUNTY 1970 - 2000 2000 1990 1980 1970 Winston County Winston County Winston County Winston County Median Age 34.0 41.2 31.0 36.0 24.6 30.2 24.6 28.5 % Under 18 28.8% 24.0% 30.9% 26.9% 30.1% 30.6% 41.0% 39.7% % Over 65 14.2% 17.8% 12.2% 15.4% 8.5% 10.8% 5.6% 9.1% # Of Households 1,753 39,821 1,397 35,872 1,168 33,367 836 22,560 Persons per Household 2.61 2.48 2.70 2.60 2.87 2.77 3.34 3.15 In fact, the growth rate in the number of households has outpaced the growth rate of Winston's population. Between 1990 and 2000, the number of households in Winston increased 25.5% while the population grew at a rate of 22.3%. And from 1970 to 2000, the number of households in Winston increased 109.7% while population increased 86.9%. The difference in these growth rates can be attributed to a continued shift in relationship and household type and is reflected in the Census data. While family households dominate the majority of the household population in Winston, it is important to note that, in 1990, Married-couple families made up 56.5% of total households in Winston. That percentage dropped to 52.6% by 2000. Female households (no husband present) made up 14.2% of Winston households in 1990. That percentage increased to 15.2% by 2000. In Winston, b etween 1970 and 1980, the number of households increased by approximately 332. The percentage of 1 person households increased by 4.5% in Winston during that ten year span. The changing structure of the household can also be seen in the data concerning average household size. While the number of households in Winston has steadily increased, the average household size has decreased. According to 2000 Census data, the average Winston household is composed of 2.61 persons, down from the 3.34 persons average recorded in 1970. This is similar to the reduction in average household size experienced by the county. From 1970 to 2000, the county's average household size decreased from 3.15 persons to 2.48. (See TABLE 6.) In that same decade, the average size of Oregon households decreased from 2.94 persons to 2.60 persons. Douglas County indicated a drop from 3.14 persons per household to 2.77. During the same period in Winston, the number of persons per household dropped from 3.34 to 2.87, very comparable to the county average in 1980 (see Table 3).] The differences between household and pop ulation growth were due to major shifts in household types and relationships, which in turn caused major reductions in household size throughout the state. Family is defined as 2 or more persons related by birth, marriage or adoption who live together as one household. Household is defined as the person or persons occupying a housing unit. A single person living alone, or two or more unrelated persons are regarded as a household, but not a family. Households include both family households and non-family households, i.e., persons living alone or unrelated persons living in the same housing unit. Non-family households generally have lower incomes than family households. As stated above, Winston has experienced a steady growth in population. From 1970 to 1980 Winston's population grew 36.1%. Population decreased in 1983 after the drop in manufacturing from recession, and again slightly in 1990 at the beginning of the second timber downturn, but the growth rate for the decade was still positive at 12.3%. The population growth rate rebounded along with the economy in the 1990's however, with a 22.3% increase in population from 1990 to 2000. (See TABLE 1.) The county faced similar growth rates during this period, with the population dropping with the economic downturn of the 1980's, but holding steady since. In fact, Douglas County experienced population growth even during 1991 and 1992 ? years of employment loss and unemployment rates in the ten to eleven percent range when one would expect population to decrease. Not in Douglas County, which has seen an influx of retirement-aged people during the 1990s. The temperate climate, recreational opportunities, and abundant health care make Douglas County an attractive place to retire. Recent years have seen a large portion of in-migration in the 65-plus age group. Between 1990 and 1996, Douglas County saw net migration of 3,437 people, 60 percent of which were of retirement age.4 In-migration, plus aging of the baby boom generation, makes citizens of Douglas County, on average, older than the rest of the country Similarly, Winston has experienced an increase in the age of its citizens along with the increase in its population. As shown in TABLE 6, in 1970 the percentage of the Winston's population over t he age of 65 was 5.6%. By 2000, that percentage had increased to 14.2%. This trend suggests that the county and local area have been a magnet for retiring citizens, in addition to the general aging of the population. The median age in Winston reflects this change. Winston's median age has increased from 24.6 in 1980 to 34 in 2000, an increase of 38.2%. The median age for the county increased from 30.2 to 41.2 during the same period of time (an increase 36.4%.)5 The increase in these figures is significant both because of its magnitude and because of its impact on the City of Winston and its future development. With the so-called baby boom generation ? born between 1946 and 1965 ? entering its retirement years, the median age and total population will continue to increase and require reassessment of many assumptions about retirement, income, and work. To date, the increase in population has in turn fueled job growth area-wide in the services sector's and, to a lesser extent, the retail sector. The service industries with the most growth since 1990 are amusement and recreation, business services, social services, and health services. This is just an example of how the increasing senior population can affect a community. Winston has begun to address its changing demographics through the public involvement process. This process has highlighted several areas for discussion and led to a city subcontract for a written report assessing: 1. the impacts of the growing retired population on the City, 2. how the City can better serve this population, and 3. opportunities for encouraging the development of retirement centers. Winston is aware of the need for health care services and has focused attention on attracting increased local health services to the area. The Winston-Dillard Fire Department is expecting a new medical facility to be built along with a new fire station by the end of 2004. This is just one of the ways that Winston has chosen to address its changing population. Winston would like to continue to attract retirees to its community and will continue to address this topic through the public involvement process. These public discussions are continuing and will noticeably impact this comprehensive plan during its next periodic review. noted earlier, Winston has experienced a modest growth in population. There has been a shift in age groups between the 1970 and 1980 Censuses, however. The 0 - 5 year old age bracket changed very little (+.9%), while the 6 - 17 year old age group declined by 7.8%. Much of this change was the result of children growing up into the 18 - 24 year old age bracket, which shows an increase in 4.7%. There was an increase of 2.6% in the baby boom ( age 25 - 44) population sector. An apparent decline of 3.3% occurred in the middle age group ( age 45 - 64) and the increase in the senior citizen bracket ( age 65+) of 3.1% was most likely the result of the natural aging process rather than immigration. The U.S. Census Bureau released new income and poverty estimates for Douglas County in 2000. These figures are based on income reported in 1999. Poverty status is a derived census variable. It is not asked directly on the questionnaire, but is determined by relating the total income of a family, unrelated 4 Oregon Employment Department, "A Tale of Three Counties," July 2000. Available at: www.olmis.org/ 5 U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2000 Census, "Profile of General Demographic Characteristics: 2000." individuals, or a person to the appropriate poverty threshold figure, which varies according to family size, number of children, and age of the householder. If the income of a family, unrelated individual or person is less than the poverty threshold figure, then it is classified as "below poverty level." Within Douglas County, the highest family poverty rate for cities in the 2000 Census was found in Glendale (19.4%). And the new statistics show that families below poverty in Winston (13.7%) has dropped by almost half of what was reported in 1990 (22.4%). The 1990 Census showed that nearly three times as many families lived below poverty level in Winston than was true of Oregon as a whole. Even within Douglas County - which had been particularly hard hit by timber industry cut-backs - Winston stood out as an especially hard hit area, with a disproportionate number of needy families. At the same time, Winston had more households living below poverty level than any other Douglas County community. TABLE 7 documents the economic hardships faced by Winston residents, compared to other Oregonians. TABLE 7 POVERTY RATES WINSTON, DOUGLAS COUNTY AND OREGON Percent Below Poverty Level State of Oregon Douglas County City of Winston All persons 11.6 13.1 16.9 Persons 18 years and over 10.6 11.9 13.8 Persons 65 years and over 7.6 9.2 11.8 Related children under 18 years 14.0 16.6 24.8 Related children 5-17 years 12.8 14.5 20.5 Unrelated individuals 15 years and over 23.1 27.3 27.2 All families 7.9 9.6 13.7 With related children under 18 years 12.4 15.5 19.8 With related children under 5 years 16.6 21.3 28.7 Female householder families 25.9 32.9 37.7 With related children under 18 years 33.3 43.0 45.8 With related children under 5 years 47.4 58.6 46.7 Source: 2000 Census TABLE 8 illustrates the differences in median household and family incomes between Winston, Douglas County, and the state. While Winston's income figures from 1970 to 2000 show a steady significant rise in the median income during that period, Winston has been unable to keep pace with the county's and the state's income levels. Winston's 1970 median family income, at $8,200 was just below the State's median income of $8,300. By 2000 however, Winston's median household income was $28,939 and the median household income for Oregon was $40,916. A significant portion of the difference in growth rates can be attributed to the increase in high tech jobs throughout the state's urban centers areas. This does not account for the difference in median income levels between Winston and the Douglas County. Another factor that lessens the impact of the gains in median income levels is inflation. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the value of the dollar over time. Using the (CPI) calculator, $10 worth of goods in 1978, had risen in cost to $17.35 by 1987. Those same goods, worth $10 in 1978, cost $27.25 in May of 2001 - a difference of 172.5%. TABLE 9 shows the distribution of household income in Winston. Using the CPI calculator, $40,000 in 1990 had the purchasing value of $25,000 in 1980, a significant difference in ten years. So, while median income in Winston has risen, these gains are nominal. The most recent poverty figures for Oregon and areas within Oregon are from the 1980 Census. Poverty status is a derived census variable. It is not asked directly on the questionnaire, but is determined by relating the total income of a family, unrelated individual, or person to the appropriate poverty threshold figure, which varies according to family size, number of children, and age of the householder. If the income of a family, unrelated individual, or person is less than the poverty threshold figure, then it is classified as "below poverty level." Within Douglas County, the highest family poverty rate for cities was found in Winston (13.6%). The county itself had 8.6% of its families below the poverty rate. It should be kept in mind, however, that the data used in determining these poverty rates were 1979 income which does not reflect the income problems encountered by many families and individuals during the 1980 - 82 recession in Douglas County and the State. TABLE 8 MEDIAN INCOME WINSTON, DOUGLAS COUNTY AND OREGON 1980 - 2000 Median Household Income1 Median Family Income1 1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000 Winston 15,586 20,286 28,939 17,538 20,938 36,006 Douglas County 16,683 23,693 33,223 18,587 26,637 39,364 Oregon 16,780 27,250 40,916 20,027 32,336 48,680 1(Dollars) Source: 1980 Census, 1990 Census, and 2000 Census. TABLE 9 HOUSEHOLD INCOME WINSTON 1970 - 2000 Household Income* Median Family Income1 1970 1980 1990 2000 $0 - $10,000 64.9% 35.2% 23.2% 12.8% $10,000 - $15,000 25.7% 12.6% 9.8% 12.8% $15,000 - $25,000 7.3% 29.7% 27.4% 16.9% $25,000 - $50,000 2.1% 21.5% 35.7% 34.4% $50,000+ -- 1.0% 3.9% 23.1% *(Dollars) Source: 1970 Census, 1980 Census, 1990 Census, and 2000 census. ECONOMY The economy of a small town or city is tied to a large extent to the economy for its region. This is particularly true for the cities of Douglas County. To better understand the relationship between the regional economy and the local economy of Winston, appropriate comparisons between the two economic levels were made in several areas including: human and natural resources, industrial opportunities and land use patterns, and infrastructure or necessary facilities. Employment characteristics were also reviewed to get a better understanding of the local employment base. All of these factors show how closely the City's overall economic outlook resembles the regional outlook. HUMAN RESOURCES Like many of Oregon's remote agriculturally based communities where access to higher education can be limited by location and socioeconomic factors, Winston residents report that only 78.1% received a high school diploma or higher in 2000. And only 7.3% received a bachelor's degree or higher. This figure is significantly low, 13.3% of county residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher and in Oregon that figure is approximately 25.1%. While low however in comparison, these figures indicate a significant increase in the educational level of Winston residents. According to 1970 Census data, the median educational level was the 11th grade, and over 57 percent of Winston residents had less than a 12th grade education. By 1980, the percentage of residents with less than a 12th grade educational level had dropped to 47 percent and in 1990 to under 34 percent. The 1980 Census also reported that over 19 percent of Winston residents 25 years and over had gone on to obtain post-secondary education, whereas this figure was only 5 percent in 1970. And by 1990, Census data reported just over 20 percent of Winston residents 25 years and over had gone on to college without obtaining a degree, over 5 percent had attained an associate degree, 7.6 had a bachelor's degree or higher, and over 2 percent had a graduate or professional degree.6 By 2000, over 27 percent of Winston residents 25 years and over had gone on to college without obtaining a degree, 5 percent had attained an associate degree, (7.3 % had a bachelor?s degree or higher,) and 2 percent had a graduate or professional degree.7 This would indicate that the educational level of Winston residents has increased dramatically from 1970 to 1990 while over the past decade levels of educational attainment essentially has remained the same although a reported seven percent more residents over age 25 are going on to college. The percentage of people with a college degree grew considerably in the 1990s for two principle reasons. One factor was the decline in the natural resource industries that required little formal education and a second was the rise of high technology firms that demanded more education. People who moved to Oregon to take advantage of these new jobs tended to have more schooling. 2000 Census data concerning social characteristics shows this as a continuing trend throughout the state and the median educational level in Winston is expected to continue its steady climb. One of the ways educational level affects a community is through its labor force. In June 2000, the Oregon Employment Department sent a survey to a representative sample of Oregon's private sector and many public-sector employers. The survey asked respondents about their recent hiring, their difficulty finding job applicants' and current workers' skills, their future need for various skills, their training practices, the benefits they provide, their use of contingent employees, and if turnover is a problem in their organization. When asked about overall satisfaction with applicants' skills, the majority of all employers in Douglas County felt applicants' reading and writing (68%), and math skills (58%) were satisfactory.8 Still, more than one in five employers were dissatisfied with these skills in the majority of applicants they saw. More than half of all employers were dissatisfied with applicants' apparent problem solving/critical thinking skills (55%) and work ethic (52%).9 However, it appears that local educational levels did not play a dominant role in the results of this survey. The Douglas County employers' responses had several commonalties with the responses of employers statewide. Work ethic was rated as the second-most-difficult skill to find by employers statewide and in Douglas County. Conversely, most employers in both areas who sought such skills found applicants with adequate reading and writing and math skills easy to find. So, responses locally largely agreed with the state numbers. One notable difference: in the Lane County region, just 5 percent of all employers were dissatisfied with employees' computer-software skills versus 21 percent of employers in Douglas County. This stands to reason considering the sizable amount of high-tech employment in and around Lane County, and the presence of the University of Oregon. It is reasonable to infer that the percentage of employers in Douglas County dissatisfied with employees? computer-software skills would decrease with an increase in the availability of high-tech employment in the area and/or the presence of a local 4-year university. It is interesting to note that the survey did not ask employers whether they experienced problems in regards to illegal drug use by applicants. Employers in both Winston and in Douglas County have had recruiting problems as a result of an inability of employment candidates to pass required pre-employment drug screens. Statewide information on this issue would be helpful. But overall, employer responses in the area follow the patterns found in other regions of Oregon and indicate that Winston residents have the necessary work force skills needed to allow the City to compete with other locations as a viable business enterprise venue. While Winston has a competitively skilled labor force, as indicated in the following table, Winston's labor force is dominated by "operatives" and "laborers," workers normally associated with various phases of the manufacturing process, in this case, timber-related firms. TABLE 10 illustrates that manufacturing continues to be the dominant employment sector in the area. The table also shows that three 6U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1990 Census, "Social Characteristics." 7U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2000 Census, ?Social Characteristics.? 8 2000 Oregon Employer Survey 9 Ibid. industrial sectors; manufacturing, services and retail trade, account for 74.6 percent of employment in Winston. These figures provide proof of the broadening base of Douglas County's economic character, even though the traditional manufacturing base is receding. At the same time, however, it is important to note that over 80 percent of all manufacturing jobs in Douglas County are still within the lumber and wood products industry. TABLE 10 EMPLOYMENT CHARACTERISTICS WINSTON 1970 - 2000 1970 1980 1990 2000 Nature of Employment # % # % # % # % Agriculture, Forest, Mining, Fisheries, hunting ('76 only) -- -- 11 0.9% 52 3.7% 38 1.8% Construction 39 5.7% 33 5.5% 19 1.3% 100 4.8% Manufacturing 373 48.3% 482 39.7% 525 36.9% 538 25.6% Transportation, utilities, communications 16 2.1% 65 5.5% 77 5.4% 111 5.3% Wholesale and Retail trade 159 20.6% 274 22.6% 298 20.9% 357 17% Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate 16 2.1% 41 3.4% 48 3.4% 114 5.4% Services (Medical, Legal, Educational, Entertainment) 95 12.3% 233 19.2% 329 23.1% 673 32% Government 34 4.4% 29 2.4% 41 2.9% 38 1.8% Other Professional and Related 40 5.2% 47 3.8% 35 2.5% 131 6.2% The 2000 Census information concerning labor status and employment continues to show similar distribution across employment sectors. This Census data reflects the influx of retirement-aged people into Douglas County and Winston during the 1990's and (as previously discussed) the corresponding effect on the nature of employment. Already, the increase in the senior population countywide has in turn fueled the services sector's, and to a lesser extent, the retail sector's job growth. With the 2000 Census data, the services industry has sustained impressive growth since 1970, moving from 12.3% to 23.1% in 1990 and 32% in 2000. This sector includes the "entertainment and recreation services", "health services", and "social services" industries, all heavily affected by the migration of retirees into Winston and the county. There should also be an even greater increase seen in social services in the future, especially since residential care is included in this sector. Statistics from the Oregon Employment Department already support this prediction. County employment in residential care has increased from 106 in 1990 to 344 in 1998.10 Winston's residents, and in turn the community, are expected to benefit from this increasing employment sector. The community itself will benefit from the increasing demand for residential senior care facilities and the excellent small-business opportunities that this demand provides. Back in 1978, manufacturing, and in particular, lumber and wood products, dominated employment in Douglas County. Employment Department figures show that in 1978 manufacturing employed 10,450 and made up 34 percent of all employment while the services sector employed only 3,650 for 12 percent of total employment. By 1998, manufacturing had dropped to 8,500 workers and 23 percent of total employment while services had increased to 8,300 and a 23 percent share of the industry mix. There are several reasons for the industry mix change in Douglas County. First, there are the well- known employment losses in the timber industry. Additionally, services employment has grown due to continued population growth, expansion of Cow Creek Gaming Center, and increasing use of staffing services.11 The continued population growth and increase in tourism has fueled growth in the retail trade sector. And wholesale trade has increased its share of industry mix, largely from the addition of Ingram Book's distribution center. The lumber and wood products industry dropped employment during the recession of the early 1980s, rebounded, then cut jobs again in the early 1990s due to environmental concerns and increased efficiency that made the mills less labor intensive. The increased efficiency at Douglas County mills has also helped keep them competitive. With large stands of private timber, this largely rural county has been able keep lumber and wood products as a major industry of employment although at lower levels. Since the downturn of the early 1990s, demand for lumber and wood products workers in Douglas County has been generally stable. There are a number of different factors that affect demand for workers in a specific occupation. Some of those factors include the industry mix of an area, population growth, demographic characteristics of the population, the inevitable rise and fall of the business cycle, and changes in technology that affect productivity and how businesses are operated. Economists struggle with predicting when these factors will shift and how much those shifts will change employment in certain occupations. Changes in technology have had a profound effect on occupations in recent years. Some people attribute the perseverance of the nation?s current economic expansion to the increase of worker productivity. Technology advances and the pervasiveness of the personal computer are two of the factors that have been cited for the sustained productivity increases seen during the most recent economic expansion. Increased band width to the area will be critical to maintaining the competitiveness of existing business and recruiting new ones. 10Oregon Employment Department, "A Tale of Three Counties," July 2000. Available at: www.olmis.org/ 11Ibid. Predicting growth for individual occupations is therefore somewhat of a best guess. People in occupations that 20 years ago would never have touched a computer now require at least basic data input and retrieval skills. Despite its rural setting, Winston is not immune to this technological revolution. Although wood products manufacturing employment has been historically the ?big player? in Douglas County employment, technological advances at lumber mills and possible reductions of timber harvest from public lands will continue to have an impact on the economies of the county and Winston. Population growth of an area also determines job growth in the non- manufacturing sectors of the economy. Douglas County?s population is expected to grow in the next ten years, but not as rapidly as the rest of the state. Winston's population, on the other hand, is expected to grow at rates exceeding predicted state population growth. The populations of Winston, the county and the state are also expected to age, increasing demand for occupations that serve older people. The correlation between population growth and job growth does not hold true for manufacturing employment, which is illustrated in Winston. Despite the overall increase in Winston's population, and in the size of the labor force, the number of persons employed within the manufacturing sector has decreased. And the vast majority (90%+) of these manufacturing job losses were experienced within the lumber and wood products industry. The location of manufacturing has more to do with available resources and transportation. Also, demand for manufactured goods is usually outside the local area. NATURAL RESOURCES As discussed above, the economy of Winston is tied to the economy of Douglas County, which is tied directly to its resource base. The county is heavily forested, making timber and the related wood products industries a major economic force. These heavily forested, largely wild areas also make Douglas County a prime location for recreational activities such as hiking, camping, mountain biking, fishing and hunting. With a relatively moist, temperate climate typical of western Oregon, agriculture remains one of the main industries. Small wood lots, ranching, and nursery stock are the main agricultural commodities. In addition, there is a burgeoning wine industry. As outlined earlier, over 80% of all manufacturing jobs in Douglas County are within the lumber and wood products industry. It has been further estimated that over 70% of all economic activity in Douglas County is derived from the forest products industry. This dependence allows the inherent problems of the industry ? seasonality, automation, and extremely cyclical demand ? to have direct and often adverse impacts on the overall economy of Winston and Douglas County. The county unemployment rate in 1998 and 1999 was 9.3%, which contrasts sharply with the statewide average of 5.7%.12 The high unemployment is the result of downturns in the timber industry and other natural resource industries. When the above problems are coupled with those of a natural resource (i.e. dwindling resource base, environmental issues, forest management practices) this dependence becomes an issue of even greater concern. Some dependence issues of the recent past include the federal government's proposed old growth timber set asides for spotted owl habitat. This has resulted in the closing off of up to 2,200 acres of old growth forest for each spotted owl pair. The rising extreme environmental movement affects not only timber and wood products but also all natural resource activity in the area. Agriculture remains an important economic activity in the Winston vicinity. The raising of calves and cattle accounts for the single largest agricultural activity in Douglas County (40% of total sales), with specialty product crops the next largest. The availability of large amounts of grazing lands is a major factor in the importance of livestock and livestock products raised in the county. Douglas County is the seventh 12 Oregon Economic & Community Development Department, "Douglas County Economic Indicators," February 1, 2001. Available at: www.econ.state.or.us/ largest in value of cattle sales in the state. One welcome trend for the region is the recovery of beef prices after sharp declines in the early 1990s.13 However, it is uncertain what affect the rising cost of inputs, especially fuel and energy will have on the profitability of agriculture in the region in the near future. Mining and metals play a less significant role in the area's economy. The permanent closure of the Hanna Nickel Smelting Company in 1987 deprived southern Douglas County of one of its largest employers (500 - 600 during peak years). As Winston grows and the natural resource economy has waned, the community has searched for new economic engines and possibilities. The rising unemployment, especially at a time of unprecedented prosperity for the state, highlights the difficulties. Nonetheless, the City, the county and the region have responded by attempting to strengthen educational institutions, encourage new industries and to develop tourism. The state of Oregon has put a growing emphasis on tourism as an industry that can help diversify the state's economy and create sustainable jobs. Like many of the hardest hit communities and counties, Douglas County has searched for a response to the challenge and is working to develop its manufacturing capacity and its tourism infrastructure. Despite the work, tourism accounts for only 3.1% of employment in the county, which is considerably lower than many coastal or Willamette Valley counties.14 Across the state, total travel spending in 2000 totaled $5.9 billion, a 7.6 percent increase over the preceding year. The tourism industry has enjoyed strong growth and total travel spending has increased by 6 percent per year since 1991 in current dollars. In Douglas County travel spending amounted to $179.1 million, of which $128.9 million was spent in the eastern, non-coastal, portion of the county.15 Douglas County has seen an annual increase in tourism spending of 5.9% in the past years while east Douglas County has seen an increase of 7%. Although travel impact is largest in Oregon's highly populated areas, the impact of the visitor industry to local rural counties can be substantial. Employment generated by travel spending in Douglas County in 1999 was 3,100 or 30 jobs per 1,000 residents. The majority of these jobs were in eating and drinking establishments, recreation and retail sales. By comparison, total Oregon travel generated 82,100 jobs, or 25 jobs per 1000 residents. A look at travel and visitor information in Winston and the surrounding area provides a view of a potentially, largely untapped, market. The Roseburg Visitors Center reports that 18,171 people stopped at the center in 2000. A tally of where these visitors came from shows that approximately 61 percent came from within Oregon, and almost one-third came from south of Eugene. The remaining visitors came from out of state, mostly California, Washington and Canada. The Roseburg Visitors Center was able to supply six months worth of visitor totals for the Colliding Rivers Center in Glide, which saw 5,417 people in that time period. The Winston Area Visitors Center, in contrast, saw 2,289 visitors in 2000. This figure was down from the 1999 figure of 2,691 visitors. The largest local attraction in Winston is the Wildlife Safari, which had 165,500 visitors through its theme park in 2000. According to the surveys the Safari does with visitors, 80% of those people came from within a one-hour drive of Winston. These figures are important because studies show that most people visit an area as a tourist several times before deciding to move there. Among the most significant factors that affect tourism trends, the aging of America is one of the most important. Seniors many times have more disposable income than other age groups, allowing this age group greater opportunity for travel. 13 Oregon Employment Department, "Agricultural Productivity: The Impact of Income, Earnings & Employment," May25, 2001. Available at: www.olmis.org/ 14 Dean Runyan Associates, "Douglas County Travel Impacts, 1991-1999," January 2001. Available at: www.dra-research.com/Oregon.htm. 15 Ibid. The maturing and retiring of the baby-boom generation has had impacts that ripple throughout the American society and economy. (For discussion on these impacts as they relate to Winston and Douglas County, see POPULATION above.) This is true for the tourism industry as well. As they near retirement, baby-boomers have redefined many of the tourist markets and their preferences are re-training the industry. For example, many more people travel by RV today. Venues that do not include RV parking and related amenities risk losing this growing segment of the market. Baby-boomers are also increasingly interested in cultural and heritage tourism. The result of the baby-boomer preference is a proliferation of interpretive centers, educational exhibits, and cultural events. Another factor that has strongly influenced the direction that tourism has developed is the growth of mainstream environmentalism in the United States. More than ever before tourists are interested in parks, natural places, venues with ecological focuses or exhibits and environmental education. Venues or attractions that can build a sense of place and environmental relevance position themselves advantageously for the future. The growth of exhibits and kiosks devoted to explaining ecosystems, relationships between flora, fauna, geology and climate are all reflections of this trend. So too are the expanding networks of trails and bike paths a manifestation of people's desire to understand the places they visit and to experience the landscape first hand, albeit relatively comfortably. Combined with the growth in what is termed "eco-tourism" is the more visible emphasis on clean industry and development. The state in particular has begun to invest and provide incentives to encourage people to find cleaner and more environmentally friendly ways of doing things. The tourism industry has therefore received more and more support from the state for marketing and new projects. For its part, the State of Oregon has emphasized outdoor sports and activities in their marketing toward international visitors, as well as toward domestic travelers.16 The state, as well as individual venues, has also worked to market the frontier and "Old West" aspects of Oregon's history to travelers. This trend has coincided with the replacement of traditional extractive industries that were closely associated with the Old West, such as logging, ranching and mining. Industries upon which Winston, and the other cities throughout Douglas County, have relied on as an economic base for years. Ironically, the increasingly controversial activities such as logging, ranching and commercial fishing that have suffered from a declining market and lost public confidence, are some of the very things that visitors now come to see. Winston, however, is in a unique position, in that the community itself is relatively young and that lessens its historic appeal. Moreover, tourism does not come without costs. Tension between travelers, the businesses that serve them and the people in traditional extractive industries can be a debilitating factor. The visitors to Winston are difficult to characterize given the relatively few venues and information tracking stations. Based on the average daily traffic count of 6,100 at the western city limits, the local tax 16 Oregon Tourism Commission, "International Visitors," Fall 2000. revenue generated by travelers and anecdotal evidence, the community has relatively few tourists and visitors do not stay very long.17 Net transient room tax revenues for Winston totaled $12,479 in 1999 - 2000. This figure was down from the previous year's total of $15,548 (1998 ? 1999). The traffic figure for the western city limits is used in this occasion because it is considerably lower than other recorders at Highway 99, South Umpqua Bridge or Safari Road. These recorders show average daily traffic counts of 16,900, 19,400 and 18,800 respectively, but reflect local commuter traffic or people going to the Wildlife Safari.18 Traffic at the 17 Oregon Department of Transportation, "1999 Traffic Volume Tables," April 4, 2001. The data by highway and measuring station is available at the website: (www.odot.state.or.us/tdb/traffic- Monitoring/99tvt/99index.asp). 18Ibid. western edge of the City, however, is a closer approximation of the vehicles traveling through the City and thus more likely to use facilities or spend money. From the available data, the typical visitor to Winston is someone who lives relatively close or is in the area because of the outdoor recreation opportunities. Indeed, over 29 percent of the travel-related jobs are recreation-related.19 The travel-related expenditure figures support this. Lodging accounts for almost 12 percent of total Douglas County travel spending.20 In Lincoln County however, lodging accounts for 22 percent of all travel spending.21 These lodging expenditures again strongly suggest that people do not stop or stay in Douglas County as much as they do in other destination spots. One possible reason could be the dominance of I-5 through Douglas County, and its proximity to Winston. Traveling along the I-5 corridor allows visitors numerous lodging options, increasing the competition among businesses for travel spending. Whatever the reason, the problem is not due to a lack of supply. The Winston area has two motels and two RV parks and nearby Roseburg has many more. In addition, Douglas County travelers, who do stay in hotels, motels and Bed & Breakfast establishments, account for 32.4% of the travel spending in the area. By contrast, day travelers account for 37.4% of all spending. Clearly, the picture of the Winston area visitors that emerge from the Oregon Tourism data is a mixed one of day-trippers, outdoor recreation enthusiasts and traditional travelers. The traditional travelers include business people, who likely constitute a significant portion of the people staying in hotels and motels, along with family vacationers, tourists and incidental travelers. This picture highlights possible tourism base expansion ideas including an expansion of the local infrastructures to include venues that encourage travelers to extend their visits. A final important characteristic of travelers in the region is that they are in the area on a seasonal basis. The tourism industry in Winston is highly seasonal. Travel between Highway 101 and I-5 increases greatly in the spring and tapers off in the fall. This seasonal nature of tourism is a recognized difficulty the industry poses for people whose livelihood relies on tourism. The Oregon Tourism Commission, for 19 Dean Runyan Associates, "Douglas County Travel Impacts 1991-1999." 20 Ibid. 21 Dean Runyan Associates, "Lincoln County Travel Impacts 1991-1999." example, has targeted developing shoulder, and off-season tourism as a part of its mission. Regularizing the tourism flow would go a long way toward helping tourism generate a living wage for all workers, as well as stabilizing tax revenues for the City of Winston. Forecasting tourism trends in Douglas County and the Winston area requires extrapolation based on the limited number of reporting venues in the area, travel spending and traffic volumes. Together these numbers suggest that tourism in the area will likely increase in the coming years, and profound growth is possible. Moreover, Winston already has an advantage; the Wildlife Safari is a significant attraction that draws people like few other venues can. And in 2000 the Ancient Arks and Temples exhibit opened close to Wildlife Safari and is providing an additional venue. Traffic densities in the area that produced the visitation level at the Wildlife Safari reveal a lower number of visitors per vehicle than other venues in Oregon. This suggests that there is the potential to greatly increase the number of visitors even without attracting more people to the area. For example, 0.10 miles south of Safari Road the average daily traffic (ADT) was 18,800 vehicles.22 (However, workers commuting to Roseburg Lumber Company's Dillard facility contribute significantly to this count.) The western city limits of Winston by contrast have an average daily traffic of 7,100. In other places, traffic counts in this neighborhood generate considerably more visitors. For example, the ADT volume near the Oregon Coast Aquarium is 13,400 and the aquarium hosted 465,195 visitors in 1999. Other venues on the coast that see similar traffic volumes include the Yaquina Head Outstanding Natural Area with an ADT of 11,600.23 In l999, the Yaquina Head center had 86,020 visitors. 24 This seems to indicate that Winston's traffic flow is capable of generating several times the 155,000 visitors the Wildlife Safari and the 2,289 visitors that the Winston Area Visitors Center currently sees. The above trends concerning traffic volume, the number of visitors, and the economic impact of tourism seem to indicate a positive future for Winston. They demonstrate that Winston has the capacity for continued growth, in earnings, tax revenue and jobs, despite the City's higher than average growth in the 1990s. INDUSTRIAL OPPORTUNITIES As reflected in the Comprehensive Plan, there are currently no zoned industrial sites in the City of Winston. However two industrial sites in Green and Dillard are located within close proximity to the City, both are within the Roberts Creek Enterprise Zone which has recently been revised to include an e- commerce designation. The closer of the two industrial sites is located south of the City, in the Dillard area. There are 724 acres of industrial-zoned land in this location. Natural hazards must be taken into account when considering the usability of the area. Portions of the site are constrained by steep slopes and a large portion of the site is in the 100-year flood plain of the South Umpqua River. Douglas County has designated the Dillard industrial properties as M-3 (Heavy Industrial). The M-3 designation allows: 1. Any use permitted in the M-2 zone. 2. Processing of aggregate and mineral resources or other subsurface resources, including asphalt plants. 3. Manufacturing, repairing, fabricating, processing, parking, or storage use not listed in any other section of this ordinance or under conditional uses below. 4. One mobile home or watchman's quarters in conjunction with a use listed in this article. 22Oregon Department of Transportation, "1999 Traffic Volume Tables," January 28, 2001. The data by highway and measuring station is available at the website: (www.odot.state.or.us/tdb/traffic_monitoring/99tvt/99index.asp). 23 Ibid. 24 Oregon Travel Commission, "Oregon Travel News," Winter 2000. The second cluster of industrial lands is located east of Winston, in the Green area. This cluster contains 498 acres of industrial properties and existing industrial uses. Douglas County has designated the Green industrial properties as M-2. The M-2 designation allows: 1. Any use permitted in the M-1 zone; 2. Bottling works; 3. Contractor's equipment storage yards; 4. Freight and truck yards or terminals; 5. Lumber yards, retail, including mill work; 6. Manufacture of pottery; 7. Manufacturing, compounding or assembling of articles or merchandise; 8. Meat processing plant; 9. Welding and machine shop; 10. Wholesale business, storage buildings, warehouses and bulk fuel storage facilities; 11. Concrete batching plants and the manufacture and sale of concrete products; 12. Airplane hangars, storage and other related facilities associated with an existing airport; 13. One mobile home or watchman's quarters in conjunction with a use listed in this article. Both the Dillard industrial and the Green industrial site locations are easily accessed by I-5 and are suitable for industrial development. Distance to existing industrial lands are as follows: Dillard industrial properties: 2,200 feet from city limits via County Route 387 Green industrial properties: 8,200 feet from easterly city limits via Highway 42 Public input on the specific issue of Industrial Opportunities was obtained during the Periodic Review Process Town Hall Meeting held on March 13, 2001. This public meeting brought about a discussion of the following topics: inclusion of telecommunications infrastructure, improved marketing of tourism attractions, the need for living wage jobs, and the desire to limit industrial uses to light industrial, such as non-heavy manufacturing firms, distribution centers, etc., that could capitalize on the City's proximity to the Port of Coos Bay while protecting the "clean and friendly" image goals of the community. The result of this meeting was a public expression that the City's present goal is to attract industrial uses that are a credit to the community and, in most cases, make a positive contribution to the economy and livability of the City while being consistent with energy policy and goals. While attraction of industrial development to the area could promote the City's economic goals and policies, opportunities to lower standards to encourage growth for the sake of growth should be avoided in the future as they have been in the past. As such, it appears there is no need at this time to expand the Urban Growth Boundary for the sole purpose of increasing the Industrial land inventory. OTHER ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES ? Retirement Community: As established during the public involvement process, there is a desire to continue the City's development as a bedroom community and desirable residential location for retirees. ? Tourism: The City and Chamber of Commerce can work together to increase the attractiveness of the are for tourism. The Wildlife Safari and access to I-5 give the City of Winston great opportunities to benefit from large numbers of travelers through the area. ? Regional Recreation: The development of new baseball and softball facilities in the City of Winston that can attract large tournaments will provide an economic benefit to local businesses. ? Winery?s: The City and Chamber of Commerce should explore opportunities to sponsor and promote events at local wineries. LAND USE Winston itself has traditionally been a retail/commercial and residential community, and this is reflected in its land use patterns. Residential and commercial land uses, occupy over 60% of Winston's gross land area, while (as stated above) industrial is essentially non-existent in Winston. Most of Winston's commercial activities can be found radiating out from its central core at the intersection of County Road 387 and Highway 42. Many of the customers of the Safari require goods and services available at such a tourist access link and the majority will be using Interstate 5, the appearance of the route from I-5 to the Safari area is important. The City recognized that they should be concerned with such a corridor, particularly through Green, since it will be the traveler?s introduction to Winston. Efforts have been made to beautify the route with future landscaping plans including the planting of trees along the rights-of-way with attention being given to aesthetics on both existing and proposed developments. The study further recommended that the development be controlled through the implementation of a Planned Unit Development. The Planned Unit Development allows for placement of buildings on the land without adherence to the conventional lot-by-lot approach common to traditional subdivisions. INFRASTRUCTURE As discussed above, the present infrastructure should be adequate to support continued expansion of the local economy. The sewage treatment plant for the Winston-Green area has the design capacity of serving 16,000 people. At present growth rates, depending on what kinds of development occur, this capacity could be sufficient to meet the community's sewage needs for 25 ? 30 years. The present water treatment plant capacity is sufficient to supply approximately 7,000 people, with minimum flow restrictions in effect and using a maximum figure of 200 gallons per person per day. Based upon predicted growth rates, this may not be sufficient to serve the community through the next 20 years of growth. Anticipating these infrastructure needs in advance will require early review of potential options in the near to future The road network in the Winston area is capable of supporting most projected future development, with a few exceptions. Highway 42 west of Glenhart Avenue is scheduled to be widen be at least three lanes with one lane being a center turn lane, and to improve the roadbed. The City was unsuccessful in obtaining a grant that would have allowed such improvements as well as create a pedestrian path south of the roadway. County Route 387 from the South Umpqua River Bridge through Dillard, although out of the Urban Growth Boundary, is a very heavily traveled road, and if any industrial development is to take place off this road, it should be upgraded. (See the Community Facilities and Transportation Studies for more thorough discussions of these subjects). OUTLOOK Winston seems to be in a strategic position in the county, close enough to Roseburg, Dillard and Green to be both a residential community for industrial and commercial development in those communities and also serve as a retail center. It also is on a major tourist and truck route to the coast, and has one of the most popular tourist attractions in the State of Oregon, Wildlife Safari. Thus, it is a prime location for tourist-oriented commercial activity. Agricultural activity in the area supplements the other economic sectors, and should continue to do so because of the large amount of prime agricultural land in the area. All of these factors combine to make the outlook bright for the Winston economy. While Winston is not in a position to compete for primary industrial development in the city limits, it may be able to accommodate modest, cottage type industries by concentrating them in a specific location. Presently, there are a number of these businesses in the core business area. ECONOMY Goals and Policies A. GOAL: TO IMPROVE THE STANDARD OF LIVING IN WINSTON BY CREATING MORE AND VARIED JOB OPPORTUNITIES. POLICIES: 1. Encourage and support diversification of the regional economy in cooperation with the County and the Coos-Curry-Douglas Business Development Corporation. 2. Advocate and support a joint effort with other Central Douglas County communities to encourage new employers to locate in the area, especially labor intensive employers. 3. Encourage the wood products industry to explore the possibility of manufacturing housing components and other secondary products locally. 4. Encourage the creation of sufficient commercial developments to accommodate Winston?s current population and future population, with particular focus on ensuring adequate medical and service facilities to serve Winston?s senior population. B. GOAL: TO STRENGTHEN WINSTON'S ECONOMY BY STIMULATING COMMERCE. POLICIES: 1. Concentrate new retail business in designated commercial areas. 2. Encourage the creation of public and private tourist attractions and recreational areas that are compatible with the environment, in order to promote tourism without damaging the area's natural attractiveness. 3. Support a scenic corridor from I-5 through Green to the Wildlife Safari and continuing throughout the City of Winston on Highway 42 and County Road 387 to the south to Exit 112 on I-5 and Hwy 42 to the west. Such a corridor should involve landscaping the rights-of-ways, as well as trying to improve or screen the appearance of existing uses, and ensure that proposed uses, other than homes, are developed with a regard for aesthetics from the highway. 4. Actively pursue the development of a small destination resort providing overnight accommodations, conference facilities, and recreational amenities that will encourage tourists to extend their stay in Winston. 5. Support the development of an appropriate number of residences and amenities, which will attract higher-income residents and retirees (persons who generally have higher levels of disposable income). 6. Review and revise Zoning Ordinance and other regulations to foster commercial, tourist, and senior related economic development. 7. Support development of regional recreational facilities that will provide for tournaments and other activities that stimulate economic activity in the City of Winston. C. GOAL: TO RETAIN AGRICULTURAL LANDS FOR AGRICULTURAL USES. POLICIES: 1. Maintain the agricultural land base in order to continue and enhance the agricultural productivity of the area. 2. Advocate tax and other economic incentives for landowners who farm their land. HOUSING Housing is the dominant land use of most cities. It takes up the largest amount of land, makes up a large percentage of the assessed values, and is the one use of land all of us have in common. Everyone needs a place to live yet everyone has different housing needs. Variety in the housing market is essential to meet the changing needs of people. HOUSING DATA SOURCES The information about Winston's housing came from nine different sources: ? the 1970 Census ? a housing questionnaire circulated in May 1976 ? a visual housing survey done at the same time as the land use survey in October 1977 ? the 1980 Census ? a visual housing survey conducted by UR-COG in September 1988, which was patterned after the 1977 survey ? the 1990 Census ? a local and regional housing analysis conducted by UR-COG in 1995 ? the 2000 Census ? and a local housing analysis conducted by UR-COG in 2001. The data is presented in the following tables as well as the narrative. The U.S. Census is usually the source for most information on housing characteristics. The Council of Government?s staff did the 1976-housing questionnaire mentioned above in June and July for the entire County. The percentage of households that replied in each city varied considerably. In the case of Winston, about 17% of the City's households responded. That is a statistically relevant sample, but the returns were not necessarily from a proper cross-section. The results, therefore, may not be truly representative. The data from that questionnaire, however, does not vary substantially from the other information sources used. The 1988 housing survey by UR-COG was done only on those areas within the Urban Growth Boundary, including the city limits. This survey was conducted in the month of September 1988. It was limited in scope to a drive by visual examination of all existing housing structures (see TABLE 11). The 2001 housing survey by UR-COG was conducted similarly to the 1988 survey. The survey was conducted in May of 2001. Again, the survey was limited in scope to a drive by visual examination of all existing housing structures. For 2001 survey results, see TABLE 11. PHYSICAL CONDITION SURVEY The physical condition surveys, which evaluated the housing stock in the City and the UGB was made of all housing units. These surveys were based on outward appearance only because a thorough examination of every dwelling was not possible. The principal features used in the evaluation were the roof, siding, windows, gutters, foundation, porch, and stairs. Manufactured homes were evaluated on their roof, siding, windows, skirting, and whether they were "tied-down" to permanent moorings. A manufactured home placed on a standard foundation was rated as a conventional single-family dwelling. The housing outside the urban area was rated somewhat more leniently, because of its setting. Farmhouses without foundations, for example, were not rated as Substandard Major as long as the rest of the building was in good repair. Four rating classifications were used: Standard, Substandard Minor, Substandard Major, and Dilapidated. A house was given a Standard rating if all of the features noted above were in good condition, or in need of work capable of being performed by the owner in the course of normal maintenance and upkeep. Such work might include fixing a broken window, or painting the porch railing. A rating of Substandard Minor was given for any condition that would require several minor repairs, such as new gutters and painting the whole house. Manufactured homes lacking tie-downs and/or skirting were rated Substandard Minor. Substandard Major was the rating for any house which needed several major repairs, such as a new roof and foundation work. Most manufactured homes and conventional structures in this category were in need of substantial general repairs. Buildings rated as Dilapidated were judged to be economically not feasible for repair work. Most had structural flaws and were in a state of total disrepair. In the 1977 survey, dilapidated mobile homes were usually "travel trailers." In the 2001 survey, the dilapidated dwellings (2) were conventional homes, located in sub-areas 1 and 2 respectively. (See below for boundary definitions of sub-areas.) In the 1988 survey the overall condition of housing of all types within the City was quite good, with almost 93% of all units rated either Standard or Substandard Minor. Almost four out of every five units in Winston were rated Standard, which is relatively high. The units rated Substandard Major were primarily older homes. In comparing the 1977 and 1988 visual surveys, major change city-wide was not detected, however there were some significant points. Generally, the number of units did not change significantly, certainly not like the major growth period of the 50's, but it was also apparent that the overall quality of the housing stock had not improved. In the 2001 survey, the overall condition of housing of all types within the City was again found to be quite good. The percentage of all units rated either Standard or Substandard Minor dropped slightly, from 92.5 percent to 91 percent. The total number of units rated Standard dropped considerably however, from 80 percent in 1988 to almost 55 percent in 2001. Given the slight drop in the percentage of total units rated either Standard or Substandard Minor, it is apparent that the increase in the percentage of units rated Substandard Minor results from houses previously rated Standard that now need general upkeep maintenance. Again, it is important to note that a Substandard Minor rating means a house is in need of several minor repairs. The most common reason for obtaining a Substandard Minor rating in the 2001 survey was re-painting, followed by gutters needing repair. Overall in Winston, the Substandard Major category for single-family housing shows a significant increase in both total homes and percentage of homes between the 1977, 1988 and 2001 surveys. Between 1977 and 1988, the number of such homes more than doubled. Between 1988 and 2001, the number of such homes increased by 48 percent. This could mean that a significant number of homes in the area are not receiving repair work when needed, but instead are steadily moving down the rating scale, indicating that Winston is in danger of seeing a serious decline in the condition of its housing stock. However, the total number of dilapidated units decreased from 25 to 1 between 1977 and 1988, and increased by just one in the 2001 survey. The explanation for the differences in these figures is the success of Winston's Housing Rehabilitation Program, a CDBG program instituted in 1998. The Housing Rehabilitation Program is discussed in detail below. Since the 1977 survey, which recorded only 41 mobile/manufactured homes in the city, there has been a continued expansion of manufactured home placement. In 1977, manufactured homes accounted for 5 percent of Winston's housing stock. That percentage had increased to 11.4 percent by 1988 and 24.2 percent in 2000. This expansion has predominately occurred in the east section of the city, although manufactured homes can be found throughout the city. Of these manufactured homes, the vast majority was found to be of Standard condition. The balance of these units was found to be Substandard Minor. It is important to note however, that in 2000, the number of building permits issued by the City for conventional ("stick-built") homes out-numbered building permits issued for manufactured homes for the first time in five years. Also, the quality and construction of the manufactured homes observed during the 2001 survey was greatly improved from previous surveys. Many of the manufactured homes observed during the 2001 survey were set on traditional foundations on residential lots. The most notable examples were in the Trinity Hills development, with major development streets Timothy and Abraham Avenues bordered by Lookingglass on the north and Highway 42 on the south. The manufactured homes in this development have traditional cement foundations and are located on approximately 8,500-foot lots. As in 1977 and 1988, the 2001 survey divided the City into three sub-areas, with Highways 99 and 42 and County Road 387 as natural boundaries for the sectors. A large percentage of the Substandard Major units and one of the Dilapidated housing units in the city were found in Sub-area 1, located east of County Road 387 and Highway 42. The number of homes in the Substandard Major category increased from just over eight percent to fourteen percent of all homes in the area. The area of most visible concern was found in the neighborhood of Darrell Avenue and Robinson Street, with one of the City's two dilapidated units located here. In Sub-area 2, located west of County Road 387 and south of Highway 42, the biggest change was in the percent of units classified as Sub-Standard Minor, increasing from 11 percent in 1988 to 24 percent in 2001. However, it is important to note that Sub-Standard Minor is given to a housing unit requiring several minor repairs, capable of being performed by the owner. In relation to the increase in the percentage of units rated Sub-Standard Minor, the percentage of units rated Standard decreased from 81 percent in 1988 to 65 percent in 2001. However, the number of housing units in the area classified Sub-Standard Major actually decreased, from 7 percent in 1988 to 3.1 percent in 2001. The second dilapidated housing unit was found in this area. Of note in Sub-area 2 was the percentage of housing units found with landscaped and well cared for front yard areas. Although this category was not taken into consideration in the physical housing condition survey, it was of enough significance to note. It appears that the increase in the number of homeowners in the area (a 43 percent increase in owner-occupied housing from 1990 to 2000) has translated to an improvement in the visual appearance of the community. The increase in the number of retirees living in the area possibly also contributes to this observation. In Sub-area 3, located west of County Road 387 and north of Highway 42, many changes were evident. In single-family homes, the number of units rated Standard fell 14 percent while there was a corresponding increase in Substandard Minor from 12 percent to 22 percent, and Substandard Major from 8 percent to 11 percent, even as total units increased significantly. Manufactured homes in this area improved dramatically, from over half Dilapidated to all Standard. However, all of the Dilapidated units were travel trailers in a mobile home park in 1977. Multi-family units have also improved; 95% rated Standard in 2001 and 1988, compared to 82% in 1977. In 1977, the east side of County Road 387 near the intersection with Highway 42, contained several condemned structures, which had been removed before the 1988 survey. The 2001 survey included the unincorporated area within Winston's Urban Growth Boundary. In this area, there was minimal change since 1988. The survey found the majority of dwellings to be of Standard condition (over 70%). Twenty-two percent (22%) were found to be of Substandard Minor condition, which were primarily manufactured home units. There were six percent (6%) in the Substandard Major category, and no units in the Dilapidated category. A comparison of the three physical condition surveys show that Winston is not without housing problems. It appears that little preventative maintenance has been done on many of the homes. This in part no doubt reflects the economic situation of the early 1980's and the continued poverty in the area. Although considerable improvement has been made in the removal of dilapidated units, attention should now be focused on trying to stem the gradual deterioration of the units built in the 1940's and 50's which dominate the housing stock and will need increasing amounts of work to ensure they provide decent safe housing. TABLE 11 WINSTON (As of MAY 2001) Houses 2001 1988 1977 # % # % # % Standard 671 68.0 660 74.3 595 78.0 Minor 232 23.5 133 15.0 112 14.6 Major 83 8.4 94 10.6 44 5.8 Dilapidated 1 .1 1 0.1 2 1.6 Total 987 100 888 100 763 100 Manufactured 2001 1988 1977 # % # % # % Standard 246 54.3 119 82.1 17 41.5 Minor 166 36.7 26 17.9 8 19.5 Major 40 8.8 0 --- 3 7.3 Dilapidated 1 .2 0 --- 13 31.7 Total 453 100 145 100 41 100 Multi 2001 1988 1977 # % # % # % Standard 218 50.0 332 96.0 208 88.9 Minor 190 43.6 6 1.7 26 11.1 Major 28 6.4 8 2.3 0 --- Dilapidated 0 0 0 --- 0 --- Total 436 100 346 100 234 100 Total 2001 1988 1977 # % # % # % Standard 1027 54.7 1111 80.5 820 79.0 Minor 679 36.2 165 12.0 146 14.1 Major 168 9.0 102 7.4 47 4.5 Dilapidated 2 .1 1 0.1 25 2.4 Total 1876 100 1379 100 1038 100 HOUSING TYPE DATA The distribution of housing by type for 1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000 is shown in TABLE 12. Winston has shown a trend away from the conventional single-family structure and toward multi-family dwellings, which accounted for 23.0 percent in 2000, compared to less than 7 percent in 1970. Winston has also demonstrated a trend towards an increasing number of manufactured homes, which comprised only 5 percent of total units in 1970 but now make up nearly 24 percent of the City's housing stock. Mobile home siting in Winston conformed with state regulations, i.e., allowable any place single-family dwellings are allowed. TABLE 12 Housing Type Until recently, the age of the City's housing stock has not been a concern; however, as TABLE 13 illustrates, based on the 1990 Census, over 47 percent of Winston's houses are now over 30 years old. Despite the City's 30 percent growth rate from 1990 to 2000, housing data collected and analyzed as of 2000 indicate that a substantial portion of the City's housing stock (over 37 percent) remains over 30 years old. TABLE 13 Age of Housing 25 Determined from issued Building Permits. 26 Determined from issued Building Permits. 200025 % 1990 % 1980 % 1970 % Conventional Single Family 987 52.8% 867 59.4% 852 68.7% 649 88.1% Manufactured Homes 453 24.2% 167 11.4% 59 4.7% 37 5.0% Duplex 144 7.7% 142 9.7% 73 5.9% 8 1.1% 3-4 Plex 104 5.6% 102 7.0% 116 9.4% 0 N/A Apartment 188 10.1% 181 12.4% 140 11.3% 43 5.8% 200026 1990 1980 1970 # % # % # % # % 0 ? 5 Years 275 14.7% 72 4.9% 324 26.1% 42 5.8% 5 ? 10 Years 136 7.3% 200 13.7% 175 14.1% 74 10.0% 11 ? 20 Years 272 14.5% 495 33.9% 149 12.0% 359 48.7% 21 ? 30 Years 495 26.5% 222 15.2% 375 30.2% 216 29.3% 31+ Years 692 37.0% 470 32.2% 217 17.5% 46 6.2% This presents a new situation for the City, which previously had only a small portion of its housing susceptible to deterioration due to age. Now however, the City faces an increasing gap in the age of its housing stock. As the table indicates, housing stock 1?5 years old has grown dramatically. Home construction expected in the next year or two should only continue this trend and continue to increase the gap in the age of the City's housing stock. Winston has already begun to address this issue with its housing rehabilitation program. In 1998, the City successfully applied for a Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) grant from OECDD. The $240,000 in grant funds from OECDD was utilized to provide zero-interest deferred payment rehabilitation loans to low and moderate-income homeowners occupying their own residences. A total of 19 homes were funded for rehabilitation work with an average of $12,600 per home. As of September 2000, the total value of work completed under the grant was $239, 921. This work financed by the program included external improvements, such as exterior painting, new roofs, windows and siding, and necessary interior health and safety repairs. The housing rehabilitation funds invested in Winston went a long way toward upgrading the appearance and livability of the community. As rehabilitated properties change hands and loans are paid, the money will be loaned again to qualified applicants. The revolving rehabilitation loan fund will continue to benefit the low and moderate-income homeowners in Winston. The vast majority of Winston's housing consists of 2 and 3 bedroom units, as the Number of Bedrooms in Current Dwelling, TABLE 14, indicates. TABLE 14 Number of Bedrooms in Current Dwelling Throughout other regions of the state, the number of owner-occupied housing units is typically twice that of renter-occupied housing. As of 1990, housing was fairly evenly split in Winston, as the Table below depicts. The high proportion of renter-occupied units in Winston at that time related to the limited financial resources of City residents, for whom home ownership - even with the lower home values in Winston ? was out of reach. It was thought that the high proportion of renter-occupied housing could also be evidence that residents who obtain more financial resources leave Winston for more affluent communities. The 2000 Census figures prove this was not true. Between 1990 and 2000, Winston saw a 43 percent increase in owner-occupied housing (from 757 units to 1,083 units.) Renter-occupied housing on the other hand, increased by just 30 units (from 640 units to 670 units, an increase of 4.7 percent.) Housing in Winston now more closely resembles that of the state with owner-occupied units at 68 percent and renter-occupied units at 38.2 percent. (See TABLE 15.) This increase is consistent with the results of the 1976 Housing survey in which 84.1 percent of respondents indicated they prefer buying vs. renting. (See TABLE 16.) 2000 1990 1980 1970 # % # % # % # % None 14 0.7% 44 3.0% 5 0.4% N/A N/A 1 294 15.5% 145 9.9% 156 12.6% 52 6.3% 2 588 31.0% 535 36.7% 522 42.1% 355 43.3% 3 909 50.0% 663 45.4% 476 38.4% 349 42.6% 4 54 2.9% 67 4.6% 64 5.2% 58 7.1% 5 or more 35 1.8% 5 0.3% -- -- -- -- TABLE 15 Owner Occupied/Renter Occupied 200027 1990 # % # % Own 1,083 61.8% 757 54.2% Rent 670 38.2% 640 45.8% TABLE 16 Prefer Renting/Prefer Buying 27 Determined from Census data. 1976 # % Renting 35 4.2% Buying 709 84.1% No response 99 11.7% HOUSING NEED Winston's housing market is closely tied to the housing market in Roseburg. The Umpqua Regional Council of Governments conducted a comprehensive housing demand and needs analysis for Winston and the greater Roseburg area in 1995. The results of that survey show that there is a demand for housing in all price ranges in the greater Roseburg area. Active home sales, low vacancy rates and increased growth trends are all evidence that the demand for housing in the Roseburg area is strong. However Roseburg has topographical limitations and high land prices that impede its ability to meet much of this need. Consequently, residential development is occurring at an accelerated rate in neighboring communities. (Sutherlin and Winston had the highest growth rates in the county from 1990 to 2000, 32% and 24% respectively.) Winston is feeling the impact of this trend. However, because of the nature of Winston's housing stock and past housing development history, the majority of new development interest in Winston is focused on lower-cost units. Winston has a large stock of low-priced housing units. As TABLE 17 below shows, according to the 2000 Census, the median value of specified owner-occupied units in Winston was just $86,900. TABLE 17 Housing Values, Specified Owner-Occupied Homes 2000 Oregon Douglas Co. Roseburg Sutherlin Green Winston Median $152,100 $104,800 $109,100 $92,500 $92,200 $86,900 Units % Units % Units % Units % Units % Units % Less than $50,000 12,335 1.9% 794 4.6% 139 3.5% 92 8.2% 24 1.9% 39 5.4% $50,000-$99,000 98,568 15.1% 7,366 42.3% 1,574 39.8% 537 47.9% 791 62.2% 515 71.0% $100,000- $149,000 208,218 31.8% 5,163 29.6% 1,353 34.2% 371 33.1% 400 31.5% 155 21.4% $150,000 + 334,748 51.3% 4,094 23.6% 885 22.5% 122 10.8% 56 4.4% 16 2.2% Total Units 653,869 17,417 3,951 1,122 1,271 725 This makes Winston one of the most affordable communities in the greater Roseburg area for first time-buyers and lower-income buyers. While it is important to supply affordable housing, it is also important to provide a mix of housing choices. The trend in Winston is toward increased development of lower-valued homes. Winston had a very small number of higher-value homes. The 1990 Census showed that just over 1 percent of Winston's owner-occupied housing stock was valued at over $100,000. However, the 2000 Census shows that this percent has increased to 21.4 percent and houses valued over $150,000 is up to 2.2 percent. Winston recognizes the importance of balancing the value of its available housing stock to include more middle- and upper-end homes. Additional land has been brought into the Urban Growth Boundary and is intended to provide appropriate siting for higher-value homes. To capture more of this housing market, the City must continue to provide appropriate locations for higher-value homes and seek to provide employment opportunities and amenities that attract such buyers. These amenities include parks and recreational facilities, quality schools and public services, and convenient access to quality goods and services. FUTURE HOUSING As Winston grows, so will its need for additional housing. By the year 2022, the City anticipates adding about 2100 new residents. The number of persons per housing unit ix expected to decline from the 2000 average of 2.61 people to 2.53 persons in 2022. Based on these figures, upwards of 900 additional housing units will be needed to accommodate future growth. Adjustments to this projection may be necessary for various factors affecting the housing market. Urbanizable land sufficient for the amount of needed housing is provided in the future land use plan. The amount designated includes varying densities to provide for differing needs. The ratio planned for the various densities is based on past trends but is also adjusted to reflect changing demographic trends and housing demands. In particular, allocations for manufactured homes and multi-family units were increased. The final acreage allocations leave ample land for development of affordable housing, while also providing needed land for development of an appropriate mix of higher-end and senior homes. INFORMATION UPDATE The housing situation will continue to change, and new information will be needed to determine the effects of these changes on housing policies. In addition, some portions of the housing information used for this plan are a decade old. An opportunity to update older data and fill in gaps will be provided by the 2000 Census reports. Initial census reports have just begun to be issued. Complete reports should be available within the next two years. At that time the City Planning Commission will review the Census information and recommend any needed modification of the housing policies or the land use plan to the City Council. This would be part of the second major update of the Comprehensive Plan. HOUSING Goals and Policies A. GOAL: TO ENSURE THAT WINSTON'S HOUSING STOCK IS MAINTAINED AT A STANDARD LEVEL. POLICIES: 1. Encourage the quick replacement of all dilapidated or inadequate housing. 2. Continue to encourage the rehabilitation of deteriorating housing through an incentive program that would reward maintenance and repair. 3. Consider adopting a housing code with minimum standards that would protect residents but allow for new and innovative techniques to reduce the cost of housing and reduce the rate of deterioration. 4. As funds become available, the City shall actively pursue methods of expanding and continuing the rehabilitation program for houses that need work in order to remain safe dwelling units. B. GOAL: TO ENABLE ALL MEMBERS OF THE COMMUNITY TO LIVE IN HOUSING APPROPRIATE TO THEIR NEEDS. POLICIES: 1. Encourage innovative designs for various types of multi-family housing in order to meet the diverse needs of smaller households (the elderly, young families, etc.). 2. Explore public and private means of providing needed housing for the elderly and low-income households and recommend mix as needed. 3. Investigate additional development standards for Recreational Vehicle (RV) parks. 4. The city encourages and recognizes government assisted housing as a source of affordable, safe, and sanitary housing opportunities for low, moderate, and fixed income households. 5. Encourage an increase in the proportion of higher-end value housing in the mix of available housing stock by: a. Identifying the optimum percentage of houses in various price ranges. b. Identifying properties within the UGB that are suitable for siting higher-value homes. c. Supporting development of an appropriate number of higher-valued homes on identified properties. 6. Identify appropriate housing needs and develop non-traditional housing standards as they arise. C. GOAL: TO LOCATE FUTURE HOUSING SUCH THAT AVAILABLE LAND IS BOTH USED EFFICIENTLY AND DEVELOPED FOR A HIGH DEGREE OF LIVEABILITY. POLICIES: 1. Encourage "in-fill" of existing residential areas through incentives for new construction in already serviced areas. 2. Provide buffer zones between residential areas and conflicting land uses (i.e., industrial, certain kinds of commercial, residential, etc.) to protect the overall livability of those areas. 3. Consider adopting an overlay zoning for Planned Residential Developments which would allow mixed densities, clustering and other innovative techniques for residential developments larger than an agreed upon minimum size. 4. Consider adopting an overlay zoning for Planned Unit Developments which would allow mixed uses and densities, clustering, and other innovative techniques for developments of a certain minimum size. 5. Encourage the location of high-density residential uses near commercial areas and public facilities, with lower densities radiating away from these activity centers. 6. Senior housing projects should be encouraged to locate in areas convenient to local commercial areas. 7. Encourage the location of physician, dental offices and other low vehicle but high pedestrian traffic in residential areas. PUBLIC FACILITIES AND SERVICES A number of services are required for any urban community to function properly. In this section, the term, "Public Facilities and Services" is used to mean those services usually provided by a city, public agency, or public utility. This includes transportation, water, sewer, storm sewers, solid waste, emergency services, parks and recreation, education, and other public facilities. These and other community services will have to be expanded as the population grows. The policies of this element are designed to provide for needed service expansion in an orderly manner. In conjunction with these goals and policies, the Public Facilities Plan itself must be referenced for the specific information and policies. A public facility plan is a plan that sets out public facility needs, timing, and financing mechanisms. The public facility plan is a refinement of this Comprehensive Plan. Oregon Revised Statutes 197.712(2)(e) requires public facility plans for storm sewer, sanitary sewer, water, and transportation for land uses shown in the Comprehensive Plan for areas within urban growth boundaries having over 2500 people. The City of Winston adopted its first Public Facility Plan in 1986. During the City's first periodic review in 1988-89, the Public Facilities Plan for the City was reviewed. The City found the plan was too general and included information rather outdated. In order to meet the requirements of the rule, the plan was updated in light of current information and changing city goals. The updated Public Facilities Plan prepared in 1989, included an inventory and general assessment of the public facility systems within the urban growth boundary, rough cost estimates of each project, an estimate of when the project will be needed, and a discussion of existing funding mechanisms and the ability of these and possible new mechanisms to fund the project or system. As of 2001, the City again updated its Public Facilities Plan, this time to include the Winston Green Wastewater Treatment Facility. In order to prevent duplication, the Winston Public Facility Plan is the document to reference for both general and specific aspects of Winston's public facility systems. It is an integral aspect of this Comprehensive Plan. Retained in this Comprehensive Plan are the City's goals and policies as they relate to these public facilities. In addition to these goals and policies, additional policies are included in the Public Facility Plan. These goals and policies work together to provide the City statements that outline Winston's community aims. One area not addressed in the Public Facilities Plan, Energy Conservation, is included herein. ENERGY CONSERVATION The concern for energy conservation in land use planning is an off-shoot of the energy crunches of the 1970's and 2001. Of the many activities in energy production and usage, the City has control of only a few. If the City, in conjunction with other public and private interest, can increase the efforts toward greater energy efficiency, our energy problems shall diminish. One of the measures put forth in this plan to attain greater energy efficiency includes a planned network of bikeways and sidewalks to encourage use of less energy-intensive transportation. Infill of vacant lots is provided for in the land use element to keep distances from the City's commercial areas as short as possible and decrease the extension of urban services to outlying areas. The Uniform Building Code regulating development in the City of Winston requires high levels of insulation and other energy-efficient measures. Building height regulations in the City's zoning ordinance protect solar access for future development. In partnership with the Umpqua Regional Transit, a service of the Umpqua Regional Council of Governments, Winston has access to a bus line that runs as part of Umpqua Transit's regular bus schedule. In addition, Winston has a Dial-A-Ride transportation service for persons with disabilities and persons over 60, with a radius service area of 5 miles from the intersection of Highway 42 and County Road 387 (the Cheetah statute.) Winston's Dial-A-Ride also will transport residents to the transit system stops in the Winston area, providing access to Oakland, Sutherlin and all of Roseburg. PUBLIC FACILITIES AND SERVICES Goals and Policies A. GOAL: TO PROVIDE AN ADEQUATE, YEAR-ROUND WATER SUPPLY TO WINSTON'S RESIDENTS. POLICIES: 1. The City shall coordinate the Comprehensive Plan, Public Facilities Plan, implementing ordinances, development reviews, and capital improvements as necessary with the Winston- Dillard Water District. 2. The Winston-Dillard Water District will be encouraged to coordinate with the City of Winston when making repairs in their water lines to insure all street repairs are made to City standards. 3. Encourage the construction of more dams on the South Umpqua watershed to improve the City's potential water supply. 4. Encourage the extension of water services to areas within the Urban Growth Area before considering annexation of other parcels into this water district. 5. Water service to new development above the 680' contour should not be encouraged. 6. The City shall encourage the Winston-Dillard Water District to continue contracts to purchase water from Ben Irving Reservoir for periods of low flow. 7. New extension of services should be carefully evaluated to determine its impact on the distribution systems, as outlined in the Public Facilities Plan. 8. Long range water service plans should be to construct a looped distribution system within the Urban Growth Boundary. B. GOAL: TO PROVIDE ADEQUATE SANITARY AND STORM SEWER SERVICE FOR WINSTON RESIDENTS. POLICIES: 1. Continue the agreement with the Green Sanitary District, which is: The regional sewage treatment plant will be shared with Green on a first come-first serve basis until it reaches 85% of capacity. At that point the Green Sanitary District and the City of Winston will meet to agree on a method to finance plant expansion. If no agreement can be reached, arrangements will be made for allocating the remaining plant capacity, and for imposing a sewer hook-up moratorium when capacity is reached. 2. The City should continue its policy of requiring annexations (or agreements to annex when contiguous) for extensions of sanitary sewer service outside the existing city limits. 3. The City shall revise the Public Facility Plan to incorporate the needs of the sewer distribution system. Specifically, the sewer distribution system needs to be systematically overhauled as it approaches the end of its estimated useful life. 4. The City shall continue to work on the Infiltration/Inflow problem, as recommended in the Public Facilities Plan. 5. The City should determine areas where drainage problems exist and prioritize them for inclusion in a storm sewer network. 6. The City shall coordinate provision of solid waste disposal sites with Douglas County to accommodate current and future needs. C. GOAL: TO IMPROVE WINSTON'S STREET SYSTEM, IN ORDER TO PROVIDE A SMOOTHER TRAFFIC FLOW AND INCREASED SAFETY. POLICIES: 1. Upgrade the city streets as identified in Public Facilities Plan 2. The City shall work with the Oregon State Department of Transportation and Douglas County to improve the transportation system in the City consistent with the goals and policies of this plan, the Public Facilities Plan and the Transportation System Plan with regards to projects planned within the city limits or the Urban Growth Boundary. 3. Encourage Douglas County and Oregon Department of Transportation to improve the streets below, as soon as funds become available in the following order of priority:1) Winston Section Road ; 2) County Road 387 south of the city limits through Dillard. 4. Limit access points to arterial streets from adjoining property to better define and channel traffic movement. 5. Initiate studies to develop a plan for improving access to the area east of Highway 42 in Winston. D. GOAL: TO PROMOTE ENERGY CONSERVATION BY ENCOURAGING ALTERNATIVE FORMS OF TRANSPORTATION POLICIES: 1. Support the establishment of a bike route through the center of the City to connect the two existing paths. 2. Encourage the placement of sidewalks along arterials and collectors as identified in the Transportation System Plan as funds become available. 3. Foster the development of an area-wide pedestrian/bicycle path network to provide and alternative circulation system to the existing street network. 4. Advocate maintenance and use of transit services to and within the Winston-Dillard area. 5. Promote car-pooling or van pooling to areas of interest outside the City core area and provide adequate off-street parking for users of this service. 6. Promote the maintenance and use of a "dial-a-ride" minibus to serve the Winston-Dillard- Green area, oriented toward people unable to drive themselves. LAND USE AND URBANIZATION OVERVIEW A basic element of any comprehensive plan is the type, location, and distribution of land uses. Land use designations should reflect a variety of considerations. The plan attempts to provide a maximum range of choice within reasonable limits. If there is to be a range of choice, there must also be methods to guard against the intrusion of uses that might limit or destroy the privacy of homes or the proper and economic functioning of commerce and industry. If there is to be a choice that justifies long-term investment in homes or businesses, areas must be set aside for different types of uses. If all uses are intermixed without proper standards or consideration for their surroundings, there is, in fact, no safe choice for any individual kind of use. In concert with land use, public facilities and circulation plans are vital to the health of a community since their number and characteristics are directly related to future residential, commercial, and industrial areas. In addition to population and economic forecasts, historic information, such as past zoning and planning decisions made by the City and County, the availability of community services, existing natural features, and development patterns influence the recommendations contained in the plan. The Plan also recognizes that development pressures and future needs for public facilities will not be the same throughout the Urban Growth Boundary. Significant differences in the characteristics of existing development patterns can be found in the community. These should be recognized and should be one of the major factors considered when reviewing future development proposals. If in any area development has been sufficient to establish a particular desirable character, it should be protected. Any new growth in an established area should recognize and respect its particular character and should not be so at variance with surrounding developments as to cause the nature of the local environment to materially depreciate in character, appearance, value, or residential privacy. This consideration should include residential, commercial and industrial designations, or even an entire acknowledged identifiable community or neighborhood within the City. In areas where existing development has not been sufficient to have established a particular character and will inevitably change as services become available, innovations in design and development concepts should be encouraged consistent with the guidelines of the public health, safety, and general welfare. Insofar as practicable, each new development should represent an integrated concept intended to produce the most desirable living space for people. Standards relating to setbacks, building heights, building types, fences, widths of local streets, for example, should encourage optimum flexibility in design. Growth decisions should consider ways to "fill in" established areas. Encouraging orderly expansions outward from existing areas of development is desirable because it can help avoid unnecessary tax burdens usually associated with scattered, unrelated development. In conjunction with this concept, the City has an on-going program for public improvements, which includes a broad range of projects that, if constructed, would provide incentives for development on property adjacent to or surrounded by existing urbanized areas. LAND USE STANDARDS AND DESIGN A basic goal of this plan is to make Winston one of the outstanding cities in Oregon, a place of quality for people to build their homes and lives. Fundamental to the achievement of this goal is the appearance of the community. There is no doubt that the community will continue to grow and change as new people, business, and industries establish themselves in the area. A deliberate and continuous effort will be necessary to see that the multitude of decisions made in the process of growth collectively constitute progress toward an attractive, livable community. The community has many outstanding residential areas and is considered a desirable place to live. Left on its own, there is a risk of repetitive and monotonous residential districts spreading over the undeveloped sections of the City. Adoption of development standards will help create quality residential environments in many parts of the City. Encouraging greater variety in subdivision design, street improvements and housing type can further enhance residential areas. Variety can help establish and retain greater identity and individuality and a sense of place for the people of the community. These efforts should also be expanded and emphasized regarding improvement of some of the older existing areas. For example, the quality of life could be raised through programs to improve housing and streets where necessary. (See discussion of Winston's Housing Rehabilitation Program in HOUSING, above.) However, as improvements occur, care should be taken to retain existing valuable environmental features, such as mature street trees in older sections. Public parks and recreational facilities have been pinpointed as one area of community appearance on which Winston could capitalize. The present facilities have been an integral part of the community and will be even more important in the future. Visitors especially remember cities graced with well-designed public spaces. Currently, the Winston Park Board is studying potential development projects and planned uses in their on-going preparation of a new Master Parks Plan. Civic groups could be included to help develop and administer these projects. As evidence of the City's commitment to a park-filled environment, it is recommended that, where appropriate, public buildings and parks should be labeled with recognizable signage. Public awareness of Winston's existing parks may help stimulate citizen interest and participation in the park and recreation facility development program. To continue improvements in community appearance, the City should participate in the beautification process by adding landscaped median strips and traffic islands wherever possible in major streets. In new residential developments, street trees, along with the other improvements, should be required to help establish and retain values in residential areas. In order to be assured of preserving and protecting as many existing trees as possible on developed and undeveloped land in the City, it is recommended that a tree preservation plan be adopted. Standards should be established to regulate the necessary trimming and removal of trees. Natural water ways throughout the City offer additional opportunities to improve community appearance. Appropriate incorporation of hydrologic features (streams, rivers, etc.) and re-establishment of riparian coverage in drainage ways in the developed areas would turn detriments into assets. However, the ecology (plant and animal life) of an area will be carefully taken into consideration before channelization occurs. It is recommended that developers be encouraged to improve these drainage ways as part of their projects. Commercial areas have a different set of variables, which can either enhance or detract from the community's overall appearance. The principal causes of ugliness in most commercial areas have been identified as follows; lack of order or relationship among buildings, too little landscaping, signage, and the ever present utility poles with their overhead wires. Most commercial buildings within the community were built one by one (lot by lot) along the streets with disregard for the appearance or use of other nearby buildings. A more comprehensive view will help -alleviate this situation. Another variable in commercial areas is parking. It is recommended that commercial developments consider ways to remedy the shortage of parking, especially off-street parking. Maintained landscaping can make a significant difference in the appearance of the commercial areas. It can soften the harshness of the paved environment and become a means of tying together a jumble of unrelated buildings. Winston has seen the positive effects of the whiskey barrel plantings placed by the Chamber of Commerce throughout the community. It is suggested that the City adopt architectural review and landscaping requirements to deal with the special issues related to commercial areas. Over the years, the cumulative effect of this review of new developments will result in a substantial improvement of the streetscape in these areas. Methods should be explored to encourage the development and maintenance of landscaping on existing residential and commercial sites. The City should prepare an urban forestry plan. Although building relationships and lack of landscaping are problems, signs are the greatest cause of visual chaos. They can dominate the appearance of commercial areas. We have seen towns where there are so many signs that finding one particular place of business is an exercise in color perception and speed- reading. Competition for the limited view of the driver is so keen that businesses have wanted larger and larger signs in hopes of overcoming the visual confusion. Winston does not want this problem in its community. As a major effort to improve the visual appearance of the community, the City recently revised with the Chamber of Commerce the sign ordinance, which not only reduced the size and number of new signs, but also established a reasonable amortization period for the removal of existing signs, which would not comply with the regulations otherwise. The standards contained in the sign regulations should be maintained to be consistent with other values in the community. Other prominent visual features that detract from the overall appearance of the community are utility poles and overhead wires. The City now requires new facilities be placed underground. However, this does not solve the problem in existing areas. Efforts should be made to develop a systematic program for undergrounding part of the existing system each year. Every effort should be made to hasten their removal. Over the years, the City has incrementally made substantial improvements in the City's overall appearance. A goal for the businesses within the City should be to improve the appearance of their areas so that they are at least equal in quality to the values expressed in residential, commercial, and industrial developments. Plans should be formulated to determine the important elements of Winston's identity and to create a design framework to guide both private and public development towards this vision. It is important that the City have a code enforcement program to?. RESIDENTIAL DESIGNATIONS An essential goal of this plan is to provide for the establishment and maintenance of safe, convenient, attractive and healthful places to live. This applies to existing and new residential designations. The Plan makes provision for diverse housing needs by creating opportunities for single and multi-family sites of various sizes, group homes, planned unit developments and nonresidential uses. Consideration also has been given to housing needs of low and moderate-income families and the elderly and the treatment of public facilities and amenities. The various elements of this challenge can be successfully integrated. However, development and growth must be diligently evaluated against a variety of considerations and perspectives. It is a basic necessity that certain public and private facilities are available and provided at the time of development of all urban residential areas in order to reduce initial and long-range costs to the general public. These improvements should include adequate water, storm drain and sewer infrastructure, appropriate roads, street signs and lights, street trees, and provisions for pedestrian and bicycle circulation. These improvements can affect the appearance of an area. To circumvent this problem, no overhead utility lines should be permitted in any new development, and a long-range program should be initiated to bury existing lines. Any aboveground installations should be designed or screened to be compatible with the area where located. The City's environment will be enhanced if the natural setting of the land is respected and preserved where feasible. This can be accomplished through the development process by setting aside open space for recreational and park use, blending existing mature trees into the development plan, and encouraging the planting of new trees in subdivisions and landscaped common areas. The pattern or design of development should be carefully assessed to ensure that all reasonable opportunities for retaining and/or providing natural amenities have been explored and are not needlessly lost simply for want of a better or modified plan. In undeveloped areas, innovation and variety in design of new living areas is encouraged. The assumption is that the character of these open or sparsely developed areas will inevitably change and, therefore, need not be protected. Developments proposed within established areas, however, should be designed to respect that character and ensure compatibility with surrounding uses. While the "American Dream" may be a single-family detached home, it clearly is not the only desired kind of living environment. Winston is open to successful integration of planned unit developments of various sizes in order to offer a range of choice for the community's citizens. Planned Unit Developments allow for variety of type and style while at the same time maintaining density. This method also has the benefit of providing amenities that might otherwise be lost if developed in the standard method. Higher density uses are recognized as having characteristics that should require special location standards and conditions. In general, they should be easily accessible by means of major streets and near commercial and transit services and open space. Higher residential densities should be situated so that they do not generate excessive traffic through single-family areas. Central Winston is recognized as having potential to accommodate increased residential density to take advantage of the proximity to a wide variety of urban services. The plan recommends that flexibility of development standards be considered to allow for infill in central Winston. No specific areas have been designated on the Plan for manufactured home development. It is recommended that they be considered as a residential use and subject to the same density standards as other residential uses. In order to provide for the growing elderly segment of society, this plan recommends encouraging the development of retirement facilities in the community. These accommodations are needed to allow independent living and yet provide some group services, such as meals, transportation, and emergency medical assistance. In addition, it is recommended that multiple-family occupancy be allowed, including extended family apartments. The City encourages a variety of residential opportunities by offering a range of densities located where best suited to maximize other goals of the plan and provide opportunities for diverse housing types and needs. Residential density is a basic unit of measurement in determining requirements for numerous public and private services and facilities such as schools; parks; water and sewer systems; transportation, power, and telephone networks; and commercial and industrial centers. Changes in the density mix can cause a serious imbalance in these planned services and facilities. Any proposed changes should include a complete and comprehensive analysis of what the effects would be on the various elements of the City composition to ensure that there is a need for the change and that it won't have a detrimental effect on the planned systems and environment. Also to be considered is the effects on Winston residents, both present and future, who specifically choose to live in Winston because of its low-density character. The location of the various residential densities has been made on the basis of population and distribution estimates; existing development patterns; natural features and conditions; accessibility to commercial services and transportation routes; previous land use and zoning decisions; and compliance with Statewide Planning Goal 10 (Housing). The general category of residential is broken down into several subcategories based on density. This breakdown allows the land use plan to ensure a variety and supply of different housing types and to better locate each according to its particular location requirements. The ranges of residential density recognized by this Comprehensive Plan are: Residential Density Minimum Lot Size Units per Designations Net Acre Residential Low A (RLA) 6,000 square feet up to 4.5 units/acre Residential Low B (RLB) 8,500 square feet up to 3 units/acre Residential Low C (RLC) 20,000 square feet up to 2 units/acre \ Residential Density Minimum Lot Designations area per dwelling Residential Medium (RM) One unit: 6,000 square feet Two units: 9,000 square feet Three units: 14,000 square feet Four units: 18,500 square feet Residential High (RH) See RM standards for units 1 - 4 Five or more units: 2,500 square feet Residential Low B and C areas are intended to provide large lot home sites with community services in a rural community environment. Residential Low A areas are intended to provide sites for the typical single family structure and a smaller amount of private open space surrounding it than is found in the other residential low areas (RLB, RLC). This plan recommends allowing 6,000 square foot lots in the Residential Low Density A zones to induce a greater variety of housing type, and presumably reduce housing costs. A change to allow less than 6,000 square foot per dwelling unit density should only occur upon demonstration that adequate public facilities are available and capable of servicing the increased density. Another recommendation provided through the public involvement process would be to keep the 6,000 square foot lot minimums but allow zero lot line permission to be given on a case by case basis in accordance with the procedural rules contained within this plan. Residential Medium (RM) areas are intended to provide for lower density multiple-family developments. These areas should be distributed throughout the City, located where readily accessible to arterial streets, potentially accessible to mass transit, and near public or quasi-public open space and commercial services. Residential High (RH) areas are intended to provide for the greatest concentrations of population. Most of these areas are located in developed parts of the planning area and is either presently occupied by high-density uses or are places where a change from another existing use may be required. Concentrations of high-density development have been located around the central Winston area, partly to provide maximum convenience to the greatest concentration of the population and partly to assist in supporting a potential transit system. The Plan has retained the Residential Low densities within the central City area to protect existing development and encourage variety in choice in the close-in sections of the City. It also recognizes and reinforces the trend toward higher densities in residential areas adjacent to the commercial core of Winston but should not be presumed to be the ultimate use of older residential areas. OTHER USES WITHIN RESIDENTIAL AREAS Certain public and private nonresidential uses are recognized as necessary for the convenience of residents to serve their daily or frequent needs. Some can be very compatible with a residential setting and provide open space or visual breaks in the residential pattern. All nonresidential uses in residential areas should be subject to review for compatibility to ensure that they are sited, designed, and developed to recognize and respect the character of the setting in which they locate. Limited commercial services should be permitted in residential areas for the convenience of the nearby population. These include those services that are used on a frequent basis, such as a small grocery store, laundry, or dry cleaning pickup agency, or a beauty or barbershop. More specific information relating to commercial areas is given in the commercial section of this plan. Private and semi-public uses such as churches, golf courses, or recreational clubs can add variety to the residential development pattern. However, the Traffic Safety Commission should carefully review these kinds of uses in terms of traffic circulation and their relationship to their immediate neighbors. Most uses of this type generate traffic and create noise at times when most people are enjoying the quiet of their homes. These types of uses should direct as little traffic as possible onto local residential streets and be sited such that as little as possible of the activity pertaining to the use is unwillingly shared by the neighboring properties. Public uses, such as schools and parks, can also contribute to the livability of residential areas. Schools, particularly elementary schools, are often so attractive as an environmental consideration that they often stimulate growth in their immediate vicinity. Because they often direct growth, the location of schools should be subject to the approval of the Planning Commission. Although parks do not often generate development, they are desirable for their open space aspects and help offset increased densities. Park amenities are hard to add in areas where development has already occurred, but every opportunity should be taken to acquire them to help preserve open space in the established areas. Both schools and parks are vital to living areas and should be encouraged. Other public facilities, such as fire stations or community buildings, can and should be functional parts of living areas. Through careful siting and design they can blend into the residential development pattern while at the same time provide their essential services to the community. COMMERCIAL DESIGNATIONS One of the more challenging issues in the planning process is the allocation and regulation of commercial land uses. It is not the intent of this plan to limit commercial activity but rather to direct it into areas where it can develop harmoniously with the rest of the community. The Plan proposes relationships between commercial uses and other elements of the community, which can be achieved with minimum conflicts. This plan also recognizes uses that do not fit into neat categories but provide needed and desirable service to the public. This designation is intended to provide an area for businesses requiring outdoor storage and/or display of merchandise, equipment, or inventory. Many of these types of uses admittedly are quasi-industrial in nature, but their need to have public marketing access differentiates them from manufacturing/employment developments. However, areas for such uses should be carefully considered to protect neighborhoods, existing businesses, and promote other community goals. While the economic base of the City is a prominent concern, if the City truly desires to be outstanding, it must also keep an eye on other aspects of the image the commercial environment can impart. Due to the location of the commercial areas, they are seen by more people each day than any other part of the community and can cause citizens and visitors to form an overall visual image of the City. In order for that image to be a positive assessment of the community, a major objective of the community should be to improve the quality of the commercial environment by means of concentrating on its appearance. The implementation of Site Plan Review for all new commercial development and the revised sign ordinance that limits the size, number, and life of nonconforming existing signs could be a significant step in this direction. An additional step would be to initiate a street beautification effort to include street trees, landscape medians where possible, and landscaping on commercial properties along the street through the cooperation of local business in all parts of the community. Most of the existing commercial uses in the City occur as continuous strips along the Highway 42 and County Road 387, central downtown Winston. It is strongly recommended that new commercial development occur in the existing commercial area to limit conflicting uses and characteristics of use that may inhibit carrying out other aspects of the plan, such as improving community appearance and functions of the tourist link corridor. It is the future goal of this plan that the City develops nodes for future concentrations of commercial activity, both within the existing City and in newly developing areas. The principal node could eventually be the development of a "downtown" shopping area designed around a small plaza (perhaps located in the block bounded by Highway 42 and County Road 387, and Rose and Jorgens Streets). This plan recognizes that due to rapid population increases in the area; there may be a need to consider expanding the commercial areas. At that time, the questions will be where, how much, and what kind. In addition to the above, the following is intended to provide the framework for answering that issue. Office use is important and should be accommodated in Winston. Office use is of two basic types: Commercial Office which caters to the needs and provides services to the general public; and Office Industry, which consists of corporate and administrative functions of large businesses and industries, and, in some cases, government, research, and development activities, data processing centers, and professional offices, which have minor public service functions. They generate many jobs related to local, regional or national business and industry. The main difference between the two types of use is public accessibility. Commercial office is better located in areas that are accessible by the public and in conjunction with retail service where traffic demands are more evenly spread throughout the business day. Office industry, while desirable near residential areas, should have good access to major arterial streets and freeway interchanges because of high peak hour traffic demands and, therefore, is encouraged to locate in Light Industrial areas. While Winston currently has only one 1.83 acre portion of a 27.85 acre parcel within its Urban Growth Boundary zoned for light industrial use, the City recognizes that Office Industry uses would be beneficial to the City as it would provide more jobs in proximity to residential areas, lessening Winston's demand on Roseburg as an employment center. If Winston is to accommodate future Office Industry, bandwidth in the area must be increased. The Comprehensive Plan recognizes four types of commercial areas: General, Highway, Special Historic, and Office/Professional. The location and distribution of these areas are related in part to existing land-use and zoning commitments, anticipated service areas, and the functional aspects of the various commercial uses. These designations may establish differences in development standards that are consistent with the basic concept of recognizing "established" and "undeveloped" areas within the community. The following paragraphs outline the intent of the various commercial classifications. Special goals related to each are found at the end of this chapter. GENERAL COMMERCIAL - General Commercial is intended to recognize existing commercial activity found principally along Highway 42 and County Road 387. As a result of the auto-dependent development pattern, Winston has significant development along these travelways. General Commercial allows any type of retail commercial activity. HIGHWAY COMMERCIAL - This category includes only those uses which serve the highway traveler, tourists or recreation user, such as hotels, motels, restaurants, and automobile service stations. SPECIAL HISTORIC COMMERCIAL ZONE - An area designated to maintain the structure of a building of historic value, such as the Brockway Store and promote the commercial use and or preservation of the store. OFFICE/PROFESSIONAL COMMERCIAL - Office Commercial areas in the Plan provide locations for professional and general offices in a commercial-residential environment. The office designation will bring about uses more compatible with their surrounding areas and make possible the integration of these developments with residential development. Examples of commercial office uses are medical, dental, finance, insurance, real estate, legal, and governmental offices and services. This designation may be used to buffer commercial and residential activities. CURRENT LAND USES As of 2002, the total acreage contained within Winston's Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) equals 2,947.33 acres. The largest part of the developed area is in residential usage. There are 913.32 acres planned for residential use which comprise 31 percent of total UGB acreage. Of the 913.32 acres planned for residential, 107 acres are high density (RH), 167.6 acres are medium density (RM), and 641.7 acres are for low density residential use. TABLE 18 illustrates land uses within the UGB. TABLE 18 Land Use ? City of Winston Land Use Total Acres within UGB Vacant Acreage Residential High 104.02 9.08 Residential Medium 167.6 35.6 Residential Low - A 519.4 261.7 Residential Low ? B 114.2 42.6 Residential Low ? C 8.1 0 General Commercial 125.6 26.6 Highway Commercial 58.1 58.1 Special Historic Commercial 15.51 14.1 Office/Professional Commercial 0.95 0.47 Public Reserve 114.3 0 Circulation Rights of Way 112.65 NA Agricultural/Open Space 383.58 393.58 Wildlife Safari 611.39 0 Cow Creek Band of Umpquas 611.93 602.25 Total 2,94733 1,444.08 There are three main areas of residential development, the largest of which is on the east side of the City. The other two areas are located in the southwest and northwest sections of town. Single family dwelling units dominate all three areas, although there are several pockets of high density development in each area. The northwestern and southwestern sectors each contain apartment complexes. The northwestern sector contains both the Pine Tree Apartments and the Christy Court Apartments. The southwestern sector contains the Blue Ridge Apartments. Commercial development has occurred in linear fashion along the main arterials - Highway 42 and County Road 387. Two shopping centers make up the main commercial blocks. There is several office uses intermingled with the commercial, primarily along the main arterials. Industrial land uses within the City are virtually non-existent. The only area of industrial use is the auto yard on County Road 387, south of Edwards Street. Public land uses take up almost 18 percent of the net developed area, (3.9 percent of total UGB acreage) but they are almost all located on the southern and western edges of the City. Winston Community Park is an established public recreation facility and is located in the southeastern corner of the City. The Winston Community Center is also located in this park. Currently, public and community organizations are conducting feasibility studies concerning the development of a new and larger community center in this location. River Bend Park is located along Thompson Street, south of the Winston Middle School. City Hall, which houses the City government offices and the Police Department, is centrally located on Highway 42 at the northeast corner of the intersection with Glenhart Avenue. Civic Wayside Park is located directly behind City Hall. The Visitor Information Center is located one block west of City Hall on Highway 42. The Winston Branch of the Douglas County Library system is located on Rose Street. The post office is located on County Road 387, south of the intersection with Highway 42. The Winston-Dillard Rural Fire District is located across from the post office, also on County Road 387. The Winston-Dillard Water District Office is located on Highway 42 and the Water Plant is located on Newton Drive adjacent to the South Umpqua River. The Winston Dillard Water District Office is located Hwy 42 near City Hall and the treatment plant is Newton Drive adjacent to the South Umpqua River. Semi-public uses, principally churches, are scattered throughout the community. Agricultural/Open (A-O) land accounts for 13 percent of the UGB's total acreage. The Wildlife Safari has 611.39 acres (21%) of the UGB area. The Cow Creek Band of the Umpqua Tribe of Indians has a total of 611.93 acres (21%) within the UGB that in effect is not obligated to follow the Comprehensive Plan and City Zoning of the City of Winston. URBANIZATION AND THE URBAN GROWTH BOUNDARY This Plan is prepared based on the assumption of change occurring. Whether the change is major new commercial development, deteriorating infrastructure due to lack of maintenance, upgrading, replacement, or a decreasing family size, the impacts will be felt. This Plan is to try to anticipate, guide, and in some cases, cause the change to occur. The Plan anticipates change in such a way as to maximize its benefits for Winston. Using the examples above, the City must insure that major commercial development has proper services and sites upon which to locate, and well maintained infrastructure. Similarly, the City and County must continue to actively promote development at the intersection of Lookingglass Road and Safari Road. The most important aspect of change should be its impact on the current or future citizens of Winston, and secondly, its impact to the City and the other service providers as a means to that end. In the formulation and any revisions to the Comprehensive Plan, these considerations must be paramount. Similarly, when reviewing proposals for urbanization or for change of the Urban Growth Boundary, those aspects must be the focus through which the City considers any proposal against the Comprehensive Plan. THE FUTURE LAND USE PLAN The map titled "Winston Future Land Use Plan" is the official future land use map for Winston. On this map all urbanizable lands are designated. An Urban Growth Boundary is shown at the edge of the urban area. Within this UGB the City has planned for urban development and will coordinate with other agencies the provision of services. Outside of this UGB are rural lands that are the responsibility of the County. The procedure for making the Future Land Use Plan started with determination of future land needs. In order to calculate the total number of acres of residential lands necessary to meet Winston's future housing needs, the existing inventory of buildable residential lands within the existing Winston UGB was compared with estimates of future residential land needs. These estimates were based on: 1. the population of Winston as reported by the 2000 Census, 2. a population projection for Winston for the year 2020, 3. trends in average household size, 4. residential vacancy rates, and 5. the projected mix of residential building types. Projected Population - Year 2020 6,770 2000 U.S. Census Population 4,613 Additional Population 2,157 Our estimates of residential land use needs for Winston in the year 2020 are based on a projected population for the City of Winston of 6,770 residents in the year 2020. This projection is based on the average annual growth rates for Winston from U.S. Census data for 1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000. The 2000 Census reported a total population for Winston of 4,613 residents. As shown above, Winston expects to add 2,157 residents by the year 2020. The average household size in Winston has been decreasing over the last 30 years. This decrease is consistent with social and aging trends throughout the nation. The aging of "baby-boomers" is expected to extend this trend, as is the increasing number of people divorcing, remaining single longer, and raising families as single parents. Anticipated in-migration of retirees has also contributed to the decrease in the average household size. Winston's average household size has decreased from 2.7 persons in 1990, to 2.61 in 2000, an average annual decrease of 0.33% Long-run changes in household size are difficult to project due to the numerous factors involved. As demonstrated above, the decrease in average household size is a trend that is predicted to continue. It is reasonable to expect, however, that the rate of decline will slow in the years to come as household size approaches two personas per household. If household size in Winston continues to decline at an annual rate of 0.33 percent, average household size in 2020 will be 2.44 persons. We use a more conservative approximation and assume that household size of Winston in 2020 will be at the mid-point between the size found in 2000, 2.61 persons, and the projected estimate of 2.44 persons. Thus the figure used is 2.53 persons per household. The 2000 Census vacancy rate reported for rental housing in Winston was 8.8%. The vacancy rate for owner occupied housing was 3%. In developing the projected number of residential units needed in the year 2020, we used the mid-point between these two rates, 5.9%, to estimate the overall vacancy rate within the City. The projected number of additional residential units needed in Winston in the year 2020 can be determined by calculating the number of additional households and factoring in the overall vacancy rate. This figure is derived from the following equation: [(2020 population ? 2000 population) ? 2020 average household size] * (1 + vacancy rate). Using the population figures and vacancy rate described above, the estimated number of additional residential units needed in Winston in the year 2020 is 903. The calculations are as follows: [(6,770 ? 4,613) ? 2.53] * 1.0590 = 903. In order to calculate the number of acres needed to accommodate these 903 additional units, this figure must be integrated with Winston's housing mix and development densities. TABLE 18 describes the 2000 housing mix for Winston and shows the projected number of units of each housing type that will be needed in the year 2020. In developing these projections, we assume that the City's housing mix in the 2020 will resemble that found in 2000. TABLE 19 HOUSING MIX AND PROJECTED UNITS BY TYPE CITY OF WINSTON Housing Type Number of Units 2000 Percent of Total Projected Number of Additional Units 2020 Conventional Single Family 987 53% 479 Manufactured Homes 453 24% 217 Duplex 144 8% 72 Multi-Family 292 15% 135 Total 1,876 100% 903 The City of Winston has five zoning categories for residential use, and housing has been categorized into three general dwelling types. TABLE 20 describes each of these zoning categories. The table also shows assumed development densities are used to estimate die number of acres of each housing type that will be needed in the year 2020. The multi-family category correlates to the plan map designation of "Residential - 16 dwelling units per acre." To determine acres of land needed a factor of 12 dwelling units per acre was used. The number of needed units was divided by the density factor to arrive at the acres of land needed for that category. The duplex category correlates to the plan map designation of "Residential - 7 dwelling units per acre." The density factor of 6 dwelling units per acre was used to derive the needed acres for this category. The calculation process to determine needed acres was the same as for the multifamily category. The single-family residential category, which includes mobile homes, the units apportioned to this category were calculated at 4 dwelling units per acre. The plan designations correlating to this category are "Residential - 4.5 dwelling units per acre," "Residential - 3 dwelling units per acre," and "Residential - 2 dwelling units per acre." TABLE 20 RESIDENTIAL ZONING CLASSIFICATIONS AND DEVELOPMENT DENSITIES CITY OF WINSTON Housing Type Classification/Maximum Density Assumed Density Multi-Family R-16 (16 units/acre) 12 units/acre Duplex R-7 (7 units/acre) 6 units/acre Single-Family (conventional and manufactured) R-4.5 (4.5 units/acre) R-3 (3 units/acre) R-2 (2 units/acre) 4 units/acre TABLE 21 shows the estimated residential land needs for Winston in the year 2020. Our analysis shows that the 197 acres of land zoned for residential development will be needed within the Winston UGB. At present, 349 acres of vacant residential land is available within the UGB. Consequently, the current supply of residential lands within the existing Winston UGB is sufficient to meet estimated demand in the year 2020. TABLE 21 RESIDENTIAL LAND NEEDS CITY OF WINSTON 2020 Housing Type Units Needed Density Acres Needed Single-Family 479 4 120 Manufactured Homes 217 4 54 Duplex 72 6 12 Multi-Family 135 12 11 Total 903 197 The commercial land needs were calculated by dividing the number of developed acres by the 2000 population. The results were then multiplied by the additional population through the year 2020 to obtain additional amounts needed. TABLE 22 COMMERCIAL LAND NEEDS WINSTON URBAN AREA Developed Commercial Area 100.89 acres Existing Population ? 2000 4,613 Acres Per Person .0218 Additional Population 2,157 Additional Area Needed 47 Acres There were no lands designated for industrial in the Winston urban growth area. Because ample areas for industrial development are designated in the nearby Dillard, Green, and Roseburg areas, it was unnecessary to plan any area for industrial development. BUILDABLE LANDS INVENTORY To determine the urban growth area for the Comprehensive Plan, the City must first determine the availability and capacity of the lands within the city limits. A survey was conducted which reviewed all vacant lands in the City. Lands were considered available if they were not in public ownership or already built on or in the flood plain. In addition, provision of water and sewer service must be feasible. The lands that passed this review were considered "buildable." (See TABLE 23.) Areas were considered "developed" if they were on a lot or parcel under two acres in size and a had dwelling or commercial building on them. If a parcel was over two acres, one acre was subtracted from the acreage and the remainder was considered buildable. Areas classified as "Unbuildable" are designated as "Open Land/Agricultural" on the future land use map and include properties located in the floodplain, non-commercial areas of Wildlife Safari, and lands adjacent to Wildlife Safari. Planned school sites were designated "Public." The buildable lands in the City were further evaluated before determining their land use designation. Among the many factors considered in this evaluation were existing development patterns, zoning, future land needs, availability of urban services, access, distance to downtown, parcel size, and topography. This evaluation resulted in land use designations for all lands in the City. As can be seen in Table 18, not all land needs can be satisfied in the City. It was, therefore, necessary to designate land outside the City for future urban growth. The determination of lands for urban growth outside the City utilized the same factors as those in the City, as well as the seven factors of Goal 14. After surrounding lands were assessed for their ability to provide future urbanization, the areas that helped fulfill the City?s future land needs were included in Winston's urban growth area. There are THREE concentrations of residential use in the areas outside the City. They are included in the Urban Growth Boundary because they are already committed to development or are adjacent to lands proposed for urban development. The areas are: a. Residential development south of Thompson Avenue and east of the city limits. b. Winston Homes subdivision and the trailer park adjoining it next to the Winston-Green Bridge on Highway 99(this area is in the floodplain). C. Safari Estates development, north of Lookingglass Road and west of town. Wildlife Safari and surrounding lands are included in the Urban Growth Boundary for Winston. This area occupies a large block of land northwest of town, which is for the most part undeveloped. This land was incorporated within the UGB for several reasons. Wildlife Safari presently receives several types of urban services including sewer services from the City and water services from the Winston-Dillard Water District and should be considered as an urban use. Increased urban services will be necessary for development as the expansion and development of Safari visitor traffic increases. Secondly, the City and Cow Creek Band of Umpqua Tribe of Indians anticipate development of intense urban uses in the vicinity of the intersection of Lookingglass Road and Safari Road, as described in the Winston Tourist Access Link plan for that area. This block of land includes a site near Safari Road that the City hopes to see developed as a small destination resort to complement Wildlife Safari and capitalize upon the success of the Safari as a major tourist attraction. The Cow Creek Band of the Umpqua Tribe of Indians owns a large amount of property that will impact the city when development takes place. The City needs to coordinate with the Cow Creeks to plan for their development. Finally, the Winston UGB includes several large tracts of land designated for Agricultural/Open Space use and protected with a Large Lot Overlay one. The City's goal in adding this area to the UGB was protect and enhance Wildlife Safari as a tourism resource by maintaining the visual and natural character of this area. One area of particular concern to both property owners and neighbors is the area on the west side of Gregory Street back to the commercial area of County Road 387 and south of the intersection of Suksdorf Street and north to a line approximately 435 feet north of and parallel to Edwards Street and Rose Street. Although appropriate for commercial development due to location and adjacent uses, through traffic, congestion, deliveries, inadequate street conditions, and visual impact have led the City to designate this area as residential - 4.0 dwelling units/acre. However, the City may allow conversion to commercial uses when these problems can be properly addressed. TABLE 23 FUTURE LAND USE NEEDS AND AVAILABLE LANDS WINSTON URBAN AREA Land Use Acres Needed Available in City Available in UGB Total Available Residential - 16 11 67.05 39.97 107.02 Residential ? 7 12 163.81 3.84 167.66 Residential ? 4.5, 3, 2 174 569.87 71.82 641.69 Commercial ? All Types 47 105.99 94.26 200.24 Total 244 906.72 209.89 1,116.61 TABLE 24 FUTURE LAND USE NEEDS AND AVAILABLE LANDS WINSTON URBAN AREA Within City Limits Outside City Limits Total Available Area in UGB Approx. 1,600 acres 1,394.46 acres 2,994.48 acres Developed 1,213.55 acres 1,298.85 acres 2,512.40 acres Vacant 386.45 acres 95.61 acres 482.06 acres Unbuildable 125.41 acres 26.56 acres 151.97 acres Buildable 261.04 acres 69.05 acres 330.09 acres The Winston UGB primarily occupies a variety of topographic features. This boundary contains 2,897.33 acres of buildable lands that adequately provides for City's needs. The agricultural activities around the urban growth area are orchards and grazing. The orchards are in the floodplain of the South Umpqua River east and south of the UGB. Vacant lands buffer some orchards. All prime soils inside the UGB are located in the floodplain and designated "open land/agricultural." The urban uses planned for adjacent to these orchards are low and medium density residential. Impacts from residential use may include increased traffic on existing roads, some air and water pollution, increased runoff, trespassing by humans or pets, and higher noise levels. Development in accord with City's standards will moderate many of these impacts on the orchard lands. The presence of residences near the orchards and the grazing lands is not anticipated to cause any change in normal agriculture operations. IMPLEMENTATION AND UPDATE REVIEWS The Comprehensive Plan will be implemented primarily by the City's zoning and subdivision ordinances. Both will be amended where necessary to properly carry out this plan. Capital improvements budgeting, plans for public facilities, and annexations also have a vital role, as outlined in the Public Facility Plan. Significant decisions on any of these will be done consistent with the Comprehensive Plan and the Public Facility Plan. At the periodic reviews these measures for implementing the plans will be evaluated. Another important measure for implementing the Comprehensive Plan is the Urban Growth Management Agreement. This agreement is between the City and the county on how they will coordinate their responsibilities. Major subjects of the agreement include: ? The process for amending the Comprehensive Plan and the Urban Growth Boundary; ? Which standard for zoning, land divisions, and required improvements will apply the development on the unincorporated lands within the UGB; ? How public services will be coordinated between the City and county. As conditions change, updates to the plan will be necessary. Potential items for review may include: ? Update the map of developed areas and remove these from the buildable lands inventory ? Monitor the growth rate ? Examine the capacities of key facilities ? Review annexation made ? Address any issues brought up by residents or landowners ? Update census data as available The Comprehensive Plan, Public Facility Plan and implementing ordinances shall have a general review and update during the periodic review cycle, as required by the Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD). In the schedule recommended by DLCD, the first periodic review is to be held 2 - 5 years after plan acknowledgement. All subsequent reviews are to be held 4 - 7 years after completion of the initial periodic review. Winston's plan was acknowledged in April 1983. The first review was conducted in 1988 - 1989. The City of Winston was notified by letter dated August 31, 1988, that the date of Winston's first required periodic review submittal was February 28, 1989. That letter constitutes the Periodic Review Notice. In January 1989, the City of Winston requested an extension of the February 28, 1989, periodic review submittal date specified in the Periodic Review Notice. The Department of Land and Conservation extended the submittal date of the proposed order until November 30, 1989. The City of Winston received first notice of this Periodic Review period by letter dated January 31, 1996. That letter constitutes the Periodic Review Notice. An Evaluation Summary and a Work Plan were adopted by the Winston City Council with a Periodic Review completion date of September 2002. The Department of Land and Conservation received this Periodic Review in draft form in June 30, 2001. The periodic review process was undertaken primarily by the Planning Commission. They made studies and presented their findings at a public hearing. The periodic review findings of fact, amendments to this plan, and the Public Facility Plan and amendments to the implementing ordinances were then forwarded to the City Council for their review and adoption. The Douglas County Planning Commission and the Board of Commissioners also have reviewed the periodic review documents, held hearings, and adopted the material, as required by the management agreement with the City. This then finalized the periodic review process for the City, excepting DLCD's final acceptance of the periodic review documents and termination of the process. This first periodic review was then completed by the City of Winston in late 1989. Using the same process as described above, the second periodic review draft was completed by the City of Winston in June of 2001 and submitted to DLDC. LAND USE - WINSTON Goals and Policies A. GOAL: TO ENSURE THAT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WINSTON IS PROPERLY PHASED AND ORDERLY, SUCH THAT URBAN SPRAWL IS AVOIDED AND LIVABILITY IS ENHANCED. POLICIES: 1. Residential density should continue to increase near existing service areas and major streets. This same policy should be extended to newly urbanizing areas, with nodes of higher density in specific, appropriate areas. Clustering lower density housing to make more efficient use for the land should also be encouraged. 2. Develop nodes for future concentrations of commercial activity, both within the existing city and in newly developing areas. The principal node could eventually be the development of a "downtown" shopping area designed around a small plaza (perhaps located in the block bounded by Highway 42 and County Road 387, and Rose and Jorgens Streets). 3. Set standards for park development both by the City, through the Park Board and Master Plan, and private interests. These should enable the City to meet the recreation needs of its citizens as it grows. 4. Continue to implement the local street network plan, which developed an overall circulation system which includes pedestrian and bike paths linking all residential areas of the city with activity centers, both existing and proposed. The street network should be closely coordinated with future land use designations to avoid conflicts. 5. Access should be very limited onto arterial streets. Only commercial or residential development that can be buffered from street noise and pollutants should be permitted along arterials. Access points onto collectors should also be kept to a minimum. 6. Land outside the Urban Growth Boundary should continue as rural residential or agricultural in use. 7. New industrial sites should be developed in Green and Dillard, with full facilities to attract new, stable, basic employers to this part of the county. 8. Any changes to the Urban Growth Boundary shall be based on considerations of the following: 1) Demonstrated need to accommodate long-range urban population growth requirements consistent with LCDC goals; 2) Need for housing, employment opportunities, and livability; 3) Orderly and economic provision for public facilities and services; 4) Maximum efficiency of land uses within and on the fringe of the existing urban area; 5) Environmental, energy, economic, and social consequences; 6) Retention of agricultural land as defined, with Class I being the highest priority; and 7) Compatibility of the proposed urban uses with nearby agricultural activities. 9. Conversion of urbanizable land to urban uses shall be based on consideration of: 1) Orderly, economic provision for public facilities and services; 2) Availability for sufficient land for the various uses to ensure choices in the market place; 3) LCDC goals; and 4) Encouragement of development within urban areas before conversion of urbanizable areas. 10. That designation as COMMERCIAL be considered for all or portions of the parcels on the east and west side of Abraham Avenue adjacent to Highway 42 when such a proposal can certify that it is reasonably necessary for beneficial development. 11. That designation as COMMERCIAL be considered for all or portions of the parcels on the north side of Highway 42, diagonal from the Brockway Store when such a proposal can certify that it is reasonably necessary for beneficial development.