University of Oregon Community and Regional Planning Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY Author: Committee: Bentley J. Regehr Bob Parker, Chair Rebecca Lewis Exit project submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Community and Regional Planning March 2017 Table of Contents INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 1 Location ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2 PURPOSE ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 4 METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 5 HISTORICAL INFLUENCES ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 7 ANALYZING DIFFERENCES IN APPROACHES ............................................................................................................................................... 10 Examining Approaches ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 10 Methods Used for this Study ............................................................................................................................................................................ 13 Classifying Land ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 14 Constraints ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 17 Defining Capacity .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 18 Comparing Major Differences ......................................................................................................................................................................... 19 RESULTS OF STUDY ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 24 Residential – Town of Jackson ........................................................................................................................................................................ 24 Vacant Potential ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 24 Partially Vacant Parcels ................................................................................................................................................................................ 28 Mixed Use Potential ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 28 Applying a Land Efficiency Standard ..................................................................................................................................................... 30 Residential – County ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 31 Residential Projections.......................................................................................................................................................................................... 32 Commercial – Town of Jackson....................................................................................................................................................................... 35 Calculating Commercial Redevelopment Potential ......................................................................................................................... 37 Commercial - County ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 38 Commercial Projections ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 40 Commercial/Residential Balance .................................................................................................................................................................. 41 IMPLICATIONS ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 43 Indicators to Monitor .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 45 Actual Development vs. Plan Goals ......................................................................................................................................................... 45 Housing the Workforce................................................................................................................................................................................. 47 RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 49 Sources ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 52 APPENDIX A – COUNTY MAPS WITH COMMERICAL OWNERSHIP ........................................................................................ 53 APPENDIX B – LAND DEVELOPMENT REGULATIONS AND CHARACTER DISTRICTS ............................................................... 59 APPENDIX C – 1994 Comprehensive Plan Projections ............................................................................................................................. 64 APPENDIX D – COUNTY VACANT RESIDENTIAL POTENTIAL BY ZONE .......................................................................................... 65 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS A special thank you to the Jackson Hole Conservation Alliance for funding and supporting this project. Special recognition is earned by Mary Gibson who allowed me great independence on the project, while using her years of expertise to guide me when it was needed. This project would also not have been possible without the review and advice given by Todd Chase of the FCS Group and Alex Norton of the Town of Jackson. I would also like to acknowledge my advisors for this project, Bob Parker and Rebecca Lewis, for their great support and the freedom they’ve allowed me to have in molding this project. 1 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY INTRODUCTION The purpose of conducting a Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI) is to quantify the amount vacant and underdeveloped land available within a particular set of boundaries. In combination with other studies—notably a housing needs analysis, an economic profile, and growth projections—a BLI allows a community to determine whether there exists an adequate supply of buildable land to accommodate future development, and where particular deficiencies may exist. If it is determined that deficiencies exist, a community’s governing bodies can make informed decisions and implement appropriate measures to provide for the projected unmet needs. When there is not reliable and transparent data, a community may be unable to make consistent decisions that align with a long-term vision to meet these projected unmet needs. This has proven to be a constant cause of tension in Teton County, Wyoming. In contrast to many communities, Teton County does not have a set of instructions or established processes to rely on when conducting a BLI. While this is the case for most communities in Wyoming, the implications have special importance in Teton County, where over 97 percent of land is federally owned and unable to be developed. On top of the constrained land supply, Teton County has the distinction of being the most economically unequal metro area in the United States (Matthews, 2016). The limited land supply and the increasing crunch on the working class make the stakes of land use decisions higher than your typical rural community. 2 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY Location Teton County is located on the western edge of Wyoming, covering a total area of 4,216 square miles. Over half the total area of the County is made up from land owned by Grand Teton National Park and Yellowstone National Park. Of the 23,215 residents in Teton County, 10,213 reside in the Town of Jackson. Jackson is the only incorporated town in the County, but there exist eight other census-designated places: Alta, Hoback, Kelly, Moose-Wilson, Rafter J Ranch, South Park, Teton Village, and Wilson. A growing number of the County’s employees commute from adjacent Teton County, Idaho. Though the Town of Jackson and Teton County have separate offices, planning efforts are usually coordinated. For example, past buildable land inventories and comprehensive plans have been a joint effort between Town and County. The County also has three ski resorts: Jackson Hole Mountain Resort, Snow King Mountain Resort, and Grand Targhee Resort. Each resort has its own master plan, which is approved by the County. 3 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY Figure 1: Location of Teton County, Wyoming. Source: worldatlas.com Figure 2: Teton County context map. 4 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY PURPOSE In response to a complex set of circumstances, this masters project creates a model for studying and understanding land use conditions in Teton County through a synthesis of past, present, and future. A study of the past examines historical influences and previous studies, and how the area’s relative new use of planning as a practice has produced imbalanced ownership patterns and inconsistent land inventory methods. The present is then explored through creating a template for conducting a BLI that draws from the examples provided by other communities, while tailoring it to the unique historical conditions of Teton County. A full land inventory assessment of Teton County is outlined that not only provides data on current conditions, but also clear and repeatable methodology for future assessments. Having a clear and repeatable methodology provides a consistent, and ultimately more valuable way, to analyze indicators and changing conditions over the long term. The ultimate goals of the project can be summarized into several key research questions: Past: What methodologies have been used in the past and how have historical influences impacted current conditions? Present: What are the best methodologies to use in conducting a BLI in Teton County and how do they compare to past reports? What do current conditions tell us about the balance of buildable land in Teton County? Future: What are the best practices for conducting future BLIs in Teton County? What are the important indicators that should be considered when analyzing future BLIs? 5 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY METHODOLOGY Content Analysis For the purposes of this report, content analysis refers to the research technique of making valid inferences through interpretation of textual material. It will be used in the following portions of the report:  Analyzing past methodologies of land inventory assessments in Teton County. This includes the 2007 study conducted by Clarion Associates, the 2009 report conducted by Town and County staff (Appendix I of the 2012 Comprehensive Plan), and the 2009 report conducted by a buildout taskforce comprised of local planners and community members. Methodologies will be coded and compared through key identified themes and measurables.  Analyzing the methods that studies and community reports identify as best practices for conducting a BLI. Synthesize the information to create a set of best practices suited to the particular needs of Teton County. Draw specific comparisons to justify selections.  Analyzing the implications and indicators of land imbalances outlined in reports from similar communities. Extract key themes and indicators that are applicable to Teton County. 6 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY GIS This report will utilize GIS to spatially quantify land use in Teton County and to provide visual representation of conditions. General parcel data is available through Teton County’s GIS shapefile database, which contains tax assessor data. Tax assessor data is important when attempting to categorize parcels. 7 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY HISTORICAL INFLUENCES James (1936) contends that the origin of contemporary land use issues in Jackson Hole can be traced back to the 1930s. Prior to this time, the area had been dominated by hunting and agriculture since settlement in the 1800s. Yellowstone had been established in 1872, but this was largely viewed as separate from the community of permanent residents further south in Jackson Hole. It would be the opportunity for tourism and a local sentiment toward conservation that would abruptly change the future of land use in Jackson Hole, and ultimately set the stage for future conflict. Some called for the removal of the settlement entirely to protect wildlife and natural systems, while others pushed for a diversified economy headed by tourism. A sort of compromise was reached beginning with the creation of Grand Teton National Park in 1929. Ten years later Snow King, the area’s first resort, was opened and the transition to a tourist economy had taken hold. Conservation efforts remained stout, however, and Grand Teton National Park was expanded further in 1950. A valley that had once been primarily privately owned was now mostly public land. Today just three percent of land in Teton County is privately owned. Growth in the valley was largely unregulated for decades, and planning efforts in Jackson Hole did not take hold until the late 1970s. A survey of attitudes toward land use disclosed that newer residents generally supported local government control in contrast to older residents and large landowners who favored control by the individual landowner (Cockerham, 1977). Newer residents had become the numerical majority and local government planning efforts came into existence, culminating in the adoption of the area’s first land use 8 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY plan in 1978. However, the plan did not account for the massive growth seen in the 1980s and residents were concerned over the allowed suburbanization of rural lands. As the decade drew to a close, residents of Teton County and the Town of Jackson recognized that they must soon act on their concerns to avoid losing the aspects that made the community special. Existing land development regulations were proving inadequate to deal with the increased pressures of development, and residents expressed the need for a system which would do a better job of managing Teton County’s shifting development patterns. In 1989 and 1990, the Town and the County began independent information-gathering efforts to determine a consensus vision for Teton County's future. Town planners divided Jackson into seven neighborhood planning areas and conducted workshops that considered public input. In a series of meetings, citizens made it clear that they were not satisfied with the recent directions of the area's growth and development. The issues most often cited were increased traffic, commercial growth, and lack of affordable housing opportunities, all of which continue to plague the region today. Narrowing in and reviewing regulations at the time shows much of Teton County's rural lands was zoned for one unit per three to six acres. Residents expressed concern that the regulations represented an awkward middle ground, where dividing rural lands into three- to six-acre lots does not preserve rural character and open space, nor does it provide the needed housing options. Additionally, many residents felt the community was becoming out of balance, with resort and commercial development far outpacing the growth of workforce units and other types of affordable housing. This was partly due to the fact that the County had honored entitlements that predated zoning regulations in 1978. In other words, the state of commercial 9 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY and residential ratios was caused by an initial imbalance that is irreversible, assuming the continued honoring of private entitlements. This is a key issue to be aware of and, in combination with other changing factors described in later sections, can help paint the current picture of imbalance. Ultimately, in 1994 the Town of Jackson and Teton County adopted a much more substantial and comprehensive plan to manage growth, particularly in rural area. New zoning regulations were adopted to protect rural and agricultural land, while directing growth into the Town of Jackson and other “complete neighborhoods” in the County. The most recent version of the Comprehensive Plan (2012) still primarily relies on the elements from the 1994 plan. While it was a substantial step in the right direction, many of the same problems persisted. Lurie & Clark (1997) discuss how the 1994 plan proved to be insufficient in controlling growth, preserving community character, and providing adequate housing. Capacity and development patterns were largely misinterpreted by residents and planning staff alike because of inconsistent methodologies and lack of concrete long term planning based on exact location and amount of capacity. It can be argued that much of this is due to the absence of a consistent inventory report that can be relied upon to provide accurate data. This necessitated the creation of this report, which focuses on gaining a greater understanding through the examination of methods used in Teton County buildable land inventories since 2007, and how a more realistic picture can be formulated through improved methodology and analysis. 10 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY ANALYZING DIFFERENCES IN APPROACHES Over the past decade, the previously discussed issues that have long plagued the County – namely providing housing, while maintaining social and rural character – have began to worsen at an increasing rate. Not unnoticed by planning staff, multiple buildable land inventory reports have been produced as the Town and County attempt to make informed decisions. However, varying methodologies have produced varying results, leaving decision makers unable to commit to long term plans. There have been four buildable land inventory studies since 2007: 1. Study conducted by Clarion Associates completed April 2007. 2. Appendix I of the 2012 Comprehensive Plan conducted by Town and County staff completed April 2009. 3. Study conducted by a “Buildout Taskforce”, consisting of local developers, Town and County planning staff, and other select citizens. Completed September 2009. 4. Study conducted by the Jackson Hole Conservation Alliance in conjunction with this project. Examining Approaches “Land Market Monitoring for Smart Growth” by Knapp, et al. (2001) provided a basis for broad analysis of methods used in each of the studies. Fifteen prominent academic planners and practitioners contributed to the book, making it one of the preeminent resources for conducting land monitoring studies. Carol Hall of the Metro Data Resource Center in Portland, 11 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY Oregon describes the three main levels of methodologies for conducting a vacant land inventory. Table 1: Categories of Buildable Lands Methodologies Unit of Measure Methods Notes Level One Study area subunits (Census tracts) Use of a land coverage classification system to produce aggregate statistics for geographic subunits. Low level of accuracy, but suitable for providing general estimates. Level Two Tax Lots Use county assessor’s vacant land and improvement value data to identify undeveloped tax lots and estimate the amount of undeveloped land on partially developed lots. Potentially high level of accuracy depending on quality of assessor data. Relies on a determining factor to estimate partially vacant lots, which introduces a margin of error. Level Three Tax Lots, combined with partial tax lots Use of GIS tax lot base layers to identify undeveloped and partially developed tax lots. Corroborate with assessor vacant land and improvement value data. Use of aerial imagery when necessary. Small unit of measure results and high level of accuracy. More time intensive. 12 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY Level One methodology describes the methods used by Clarion Associates in 2007. The study used census tracts to provide a general overview of the amount of available land in each general land category. Analysis at the parcel level was not considered. This is a strategy used by many other rural communities, as it is not time or resource intensive. It is typically suitable for rural communities, but resort communities such as Jackson Hole, demand a more detailed analysis due to more extreme constraints, a scarcity of buildable land, and a competitive market. Residents soon called for a more in-depth analysis. A more in-depth analysis eventually came in the form of a 2009 study conducted by Town and County staff. The study used elements from Level One and Level Two analysis: it combined building permit data, assessor data, and census data to create a mix of parcel level analysis in some areas and general analysis in other areas. Feedback came swiftly, and a call was made for parcel level analysis for the entire County. In response, a “Buildout Taskforce” was created in the summer of 2009 to calculate absolute buildout potential at a parcel level. This proved to be a shift to Level Two analysis, with elements of Level Three methodology. The potential for each parcel was calculated, with parcels in question having on-site visits. Parcels were documented into an extensive spreadsheet with appraisal data that would later be used to create a GIS database. Unlike previous studies, mixed use redevelopment was also calculated based on assumptions discussed later. The “Buildout Taskforce” study was a definite improvement in accuracy, but concerns persisted over vague methodology and a disconnect between market conditions and the land supply reported by the study. 13 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY This report relied on Level Three analysis to produce a clearer and more repeatable methodology that ultimately leads to a more accurate portrayal of land use conditions. The key enhancement over Level Two analysis is the number of sources considered. Sources used in this study included use of GIS tax lot base layers to identify undeveloped and partially developed tax lots, corroboration with assessor data, and extensive use of aerial imagery. Development and redevelopment trends were also factored in to create a buildout timeline. Methods Used for this Study Consistent with the Level Three approach described above, the BLI for this study followed an established comprehensive structure. Although there are specific aspects that must tailored to the data and conditions in Teton County, the general basis for conducting the study followed the five-step process common to a Level Three approach: 1. Determining the study area and land base. 2. Classifying land into mutually exclusive categories by development status. 3. Deducting land with development constraints. 4. Developing tabular and graphic summaries of lands by classification and plan designation. 5. Estimating land holding capacity in terms of dwellings, commercial square footage, and employees. 14 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY Classifying Land Classification of land occurred on two levels: the status of the parcel and the zone type. The status of each parcel was determined to be either vacant, partially vacant, developed, redevelopable, constrained, or public land. Vacant: land without structures or other significant man-made improvements. If the parcel had an improvement value less than $5,000 and had no visibly significant structures, it was deemed vacant. Partially vacant: land that has development, but is underutilized per zoning allowances. For commercial zones, this means parcels with an undeveloped area greater than 3,250 square feet with improvement value greater than $5,000 that have a developable remainder. For residential zones, this means parcels that have an existing unit, but potential for additional units under current zoning. For example, a 40,000 square foot lot with one existing unit located in a zone that has a minimum lot size per unit of 12,000 square feet, would have a potentially for two additional units. Developed: the parcel has existing development and an improvement value that does not make it suitable for redevelopment. Redevelopable: the parcel has developed structures with improvement value to land value ratios that make them viable target for redevelopment. Refer to the section “Calculating Commercial Redevelopment Potential” on page 35 for a full explanation of calculating redevelopment potential. 15 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY Constrained: Parcels that have limited development potential due to steep slopes, wetlands, waterways, and easements. Constraints were calculated using standards from the Teton County Land Development Regulations. Public: publicly owned parcels such as parks, governmental, or public facilities are considered unavailable for development. Once each parcel was given a status, it was further classified by zone type to better understand where development potential exists in the Town and County. Zone types are set forth by the Teton County Land Development Regulations and are summarized in Table 2. 16 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY Table 2: Summary of Zone Types Zone Abbreviation Notes Suburban S Single family with minimum lot size of 12,000 sq. ft. Urban Residential UR High density multi-family residential with maximum density of 23.5 units per acre using cluster bonuses. Urban Commercial UC, UC-2 Mix of development of lodging, restaurants, financial, retail, and visitor-oriented services. Mixed use development allowed. Auto-Urban Residential AR Moderate density residential with maximum density of 11.7 units per acres using cluster bonuses. More automobile oriented than UR. Neighborhood Conservation NC Maintain existing character. Not applied to vacant land. Neighborhood Conservation – Planned Unit Development NC-PUD Maintain existing character of planned development. Business Park BP Industrial, wholesaling, distribution, and service commercial. Residential Business RB Small scale businesses on lots where the principal use is residential. Office Professional OP, OP-2 Office use Auto-Urban Commercial AC Commercial development with access tailored to automobiles Rural Residential – Town R-TOJ Preserves the existing character in rural areas of the Town of Jackson, typified by expansive open areas and natural features. Minimum lot size 12,000 square feet. Rural - County R1, R2, R3 Parcel is determined to be R1, R2, or R3 based on size and character of parcel. R1 represents largest parcels, usually over 100 acres in size. R3 usually represents parcels under 35 acres. 17 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY Figure 3: Neighborhood Form of Zone Types. Source: Teton County LDRs. Constraints There are several constraints and limitations to contend with when conducting a BLI, and this study faced many of the typical challenges: 1. Limitation and interpretation of existing data sources. This study used tax assessment data and the County’s GIS database as the basis for much of its analysis. Aerial imagery, master plans, and HOA plans were then used to overrule any discrepancies or suspicious parcel data. There are likely small errors in interpretation, but the study aimed to achieve the highest standard of accuracy possible by using a variety of sources. 2. Redevelopment potential is difficult to predict due to uncertainties of market and ownership conditions. This study attempted to portray the most realistic projections by using a formula from established by the City of Eugene, and through collaboration with a local realtor. 18 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY 3. There does not currently exist an extensive housing needs study or market analysis study for the Town or County. This limits the ability of this study to make highly accurate projections for demand and projected need of specific development types. Projections could only be based on the data available. Defining Capacity The way in which capacity is defined has a vital impact on how data is presented and largely affects the “story” told by the inventory report. Knapp, et al. (2001) presents three different ways of defining capacity: zoned capacity, planned capacity, and capacity based on development trends. Zoned Capacity provides a tool to evaluate raw land capacity for existing zoning. It does not consider future goals or plans for units in neighborhoods if those neighborhoods are not yet zoned to accommodate the goal capacity. Zoned capacity is reliable and has a high level of certainty, assuming zoning does not drastically change. This is largely what this study relied on. Unlike zoned capacity, planned capacity does consider future goals and plans that can be reasonably projected to occur. There is obviously more uncertainty with this measurement, but in many cases, it can provide a more realistic outlook if future goals can be reasonably counted upon. Planned capacity also requires a temporal element to have substance. It is not enough to say that a jurisdiction plans for a particular number of units at some point. A more valuable way of using planned capacity is to assert the jurisdiction intends for ‘x’ number of units to be developed in this specific location during a particular time range. Town and County reports included planned capacity but did not give a timeframe, leading to a great deal of uncertainty. 19 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY Capacity based on past development trends is another way to make projections. By using concrete data from actual on-the-ground development that has taken place, this type of projection can be used with some level of confidence. It is most appropriate when zoned capacity is unlikely to be met in a reasonable timeframe and development patterns are not expected to drastically change. In the case of this study, development trends were used for agriculture land and accessory residential units because trends in those areas were steady and the absolute nature of zoned capacity did not portray likely development. Comparing Major Differences Table 3: Floor Area Ratio Standards and Snow King Resort Potential Clarion Associates Appendix I 2012 Comprehensive Plan Town and County Buildout Taskforce This Study Date Completed April 2007 April 2009 September 2009 September 2016 UC/UC-2 FAR1 0.65 0.80, 1.30 0.80, 1.30 0.80, 1.30 AC FAR 0.25 0.325 0.325 0.325 AC/LO FAR 0.25 0.65 0.65 0.65 OP/OP-2 FAR 0.65 0.46, 0.65 0.46, 0.65 0.46, 0.65 Snow King Resort Potential 395,000 sf 680,000 sf 532,155 sf 569,918 sf 1 Floor Area Ratio (FAR) standards can be found in the Town and County Land Development Regulations (last updated 1/1/15). See Appendix for a summary of zone names and their associated FAR standards. 20 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY Table 4: Summary of Methodological Differences Clarion Associates Appendix I 2012 Comprehensive Plan Town and County Buildout Taskforce This Study Date Completed April 2007 April 2009 September 2009 September 2016 Data Source 2000 Census Assessor Data Assessor Data Assessor Data Building Permits Building Permits Building Permits Building Permits Satellite Imagery HOA website data Data from Local Realtor Specificity General Zone/Acreage* Mix of parcel by parcel and general zone* Parcel by parcel Parcel by parcel Mix of Use Considered for Redevelopment/Infill No mix of use considered No mix of use considered 3:1 Commercial - Residential ratio for select areas 3:1 and 2:1 Commercial - Residential ratio scenarios provided Planned Residential Development Not Considered Included (General) Included (Breakdown by development) Included (Breakdown by development) Land Efficiency Assumption None None None Yes2 Agriculture Development Assumption Total Ag. Area multiplied by Units per Acre Allowed Max Allowable Development Acheived Max Allowable Development Acheived Based on development trends Accessory Residential Unit (ARU) Assumption ARUs not considered Max allowable ARU allotment acheived Max allowable ARU allotment acheived Based on development trends Floating Units Assumption* Floating units did not exist at time of study Floating units counted as capacity Floating units counted as capacity Capacity presented in both scenarios (counting and not counting floating units) 2 Based on Analysis of Land Use Efficiency in Oregon Cities, University of Oregon Community Service Center, 2015 21 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY Some of the differences in studies were simply a matter of regulations changing over time, as seen in Table 3. This includes updates to FAR regulations in commercial zones and the amount of allowable floor space in resorts, namely Snow King. However, many of the other differences listed in Table 4 are independent of time and are a product of differing methodologies. These specifically include: 1. The type and number of data sources used. The Clarion study used general Census data and building permits, and the findings in 2012 Comprehensive Plan Appendix I and the Buildout Taskforce used assessor data and building permits. Meanwhile, this study utilized an abundance of sources including assessor data, building permits, GIS, Satellite Imagery, Homeowners Association website data, and data from a local realtor to verify and substantiate findings. 2. Specificity. As touched on in the previous section, the Clarion study used Level One methodology resulting in general zone and acreage calculations, the 2012 Comprehensive Plan Appendix I findings used a mix of general zone-based calculations and parcel analysis, and the Buildout Taskforce and this study used only parcel level analysis. 3. Mix of Use Considered for Redevelopment and Infill. The Clarion report and the data reported by Appendix I of the 2012 Comprehensive Plan did not consider mix of use. In other words, a commercial zone was assumed to only have commercial potential, and not any mixed-use potential. The Buildout Taskforce used an assumption that for every three square feet of commercial development in zones where mixed use is allowed, one 22 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY square foot of residential development would occur. The Town and County have more recently discussed moving from a 3:1 mixed use development ratio to a 2:1 ratio, where for every two square feet of commercial development, one square foot of residential development would occur. This study presents data in the case of both the 3:1 and 2:1 assumption. 4. Land Efficiency Assumptions. An inherent “under-build” factor always exists. The maximum density allowed by zoning regulations is rarely reached and factoring this into to projected calculations can provide a more realistic portrayal of likely development potential. All past studies prior to this one assumed maximum land efficiency, while this study assumed inefficiencies. 5. Agriculture Development Assumptions. Prior studies measured zoned capacity and assumed maximum development on agriculture land as part of the residential inventory. Since development on agriculture land is extremely scarce (5 residential units built in Teton County between 2006 and 2015), it can be misleading to use it as part of total inventory. Instead, this study used agriculture development trends to project inventory on a fixed timeline. 6. Accessory Residential Unit Assumption. Accessory Residential Units (ARUs) were not considered in the Clarion report. Appendix I of the 2012 Comprehensive Plan, as well as the Buildout Taskforce made the assumption that every property that is allowed an ARU would construct one. Currently the County rural zones allow single family parcels to construct ARUs. This results in thousands of extra potential units that are unlikely to be 23 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY realized on a realistic timeline. This study used past development trends to estimate a likely number of ARUs over a twenty-year timeline. 7. Floating Units Assumption. 2016 updates to rural land development regulations have removed 2,447 potential residential units from rural zones in the County. Additionally, the creation of new conservation easements removes potential from rural zones. Appendix I of the 2012 Comprehensive Plan and the Buildout Taskforce study count these removed potential units as “floating units” that will eventually go into complete neighborhoods. Since this is not current “on-ground” potential, this study distinguishes the difference. The goal of this study was to show currently existing potential, not aspirational potential. 24 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY RESULTS OF STUDY Residential – Town of Jackson Vacant Potential The first step was using GIS to separate and display residential parcels based on three categories: parcels already containing development, vacant parcels, and unbuildable lands. Fortunately, Greenwood Mapping, Inc. already had a shapefile that separated residential, commercial, agriculture, and public parcels according to assessor data. After inputting and manipulating the data, a map of the Town could be formed showing the three categories. Each parcel was checked through Google Earth and aerial images provided by the County. Questionable parcels and parcels with boundary errors were modified or eliminated. These were errors from the original shapefile that had to be proofed. The use of multiple sources to proof the parcel data is representative of Level Three analysis, and is an extra step not used in previous studies. Figure 3 shows the resulting map. 25 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY Figure 4: Jackson Residential Parcels *Vacant unbuildable refers to vacant parcels that do not have development potential due to slopes exceeding 25%. There were no unbuildable residential lands due to other features, including water. Next, GIS was used to show vacant parcels by zone. This is important when attempting to calculate development potential, as each of the Town’s twelve zones have different development regulations. It also provides a strong visual for where vacant potential is located and the zones that may be lacking potential. Table 4 displays the calculated potential for the Town’s vacant parcels, separated by zone. 26 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY Figure 5: Jackson Residential Parcels by Zone 27 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY Table 4: Town of Jackson Vacant Residential Land Zone Parcels Acres Dwelling Unit Capacity3 Suburban (S) 86 51.16 86-1564 Urban Residential (UR) 2 11.03 2135 Urban Commercial (UC, UC-2) 8 2.20 33 Auto-Urban Residential (AR) 24 5.55 26 Neighborhood Conservation (NC) 47 22.42 51 Neighborhood Conservation – Planned Unit Development (NC-PUD) 22 4.58 22 Business Park (BP) 1 0.18 1 Residential Business (RB) 1 0.19 1 Office Professional (OP, OP-2) 3 0.43 3 Auto-Urban Commercial (AC) 2 0.36 2 Rural Residential – Town (R-TOJ) 18 37.40 18 ALL ZONES 214 133.50 456-526 3 Setback regulations set forth by Town of Jackson LDRs were factored into analysis. 4 The maximum value of 156 suburban units assumes subdivision through urban cluster development (35% ratio) 5 213 Urban Residential units based on maximum allowed urban cluster development of 23.5 du/acre. 28 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY Partially Vacant Parcels There also exists potential on partially developed parcels. Partially developed parcels are parcels that have room for additional development under current zoning regulations. There is greater uncertainty for these parcels compared to vacant land because there are several factors that potentially make infill or redevelopment unlikely to occur.6 Table 5: Town of Jackson Additional Potential on Partially Vacant Residential Parcels Zone Type Dwelling Unit Capacity Single Family 152 Multi-Family 1,401 Total 1,553 Mixed Use Potential In addition to potential on pure residentially zoned parcels, the Town has identified five districts that are appropriate for mixed use development. Mixed use development is key for the Town moving forward, as it is a way to address housing, particularly affordable housing. There exists 213 to 336 potential residential units from redevelopment/infill in the Central Business District, South Cache/Snow King, North Cache, Karns Meadow, and Southeast mixed use districts.7 This was calculated based on a “75% commercial/25% residential” redevelopment ratio. Shifting from a 3:1 to a 2:1 commercial/residential redevelopment ratio would yield 284 to 448 potential units in these districts, an increase of 71 to 112 additional units. It should be noted that these ratios are simply targets and are not required of developers. 6 This is issue is discussed in detail at the end of this section. 7 These potential Mixed Use Districts were identified by the Buildout Taskforce. 29 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY Figure 6: Locations of Potential Mixed Use 1. Central Business District 2. South Cache/Snow King 3. North Cache 4. Karns Meadow 5. Southeast (District 20) 30 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY Applying a Land Efficiency Standard There is always an “under-build” factor, meaning development will never reach 100 percent of zoned capacity. Currently, the Town’s developed parcels have an average of 3.1 units per acre on single family and 9.6 units per acre on multi-family. This is compared to an average of 4.62 units per acre on single family and 6.36 units per acre for similarly sized towns in Oregon (5,000 to 9,999 residents)8. There is little room for increased density on single family zones because zoning regulations allow a maximum of four units per acre. It was optimistically assumed that density on single family zones could reach ninety percent of potential, or 3.6 units per acre. Multi-family has more room for increased density, as density bonuses for clustered development allow for a maximum of 23.5 acres per unit. Large cities in Oregon (over 50,000 residents) have an average multi-family density of 14.47 units per acre. For this study, it was optimistically assumed that maximum potential in multi-family zones is equal to the average multi-family density for large cities in Oregon. This should be viewed as an upper bound. Table 6: Town of Jackson Potential on Vacant Residential Parcels Zone Type Dwelling Unit Capacity Allowed by Zoning Capacity After Applying Efficiency Standard Single Family 147 132 Multi-Family 213 133 Total 360 265 Table 7: Town of Jackson Additional Potential on Partially Developed Residential Parcels Zone Type Dwelling Unit Capacity Allowed by Zoning Capacity After Applying Efficiency Standard Single Family 152 41 Multi-Family 1,401 621 Total 1,553 662 8 Analysis of Land Use Efficiency in Oregon Cities (2015), University of Oregon Community Service Center 31 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY Residential – County A similar approach was used to calculate the residential potential for the County that did not involve agriculture land or accessory residential units. A summary table is shown here (Table 8), but full breakdown of potential by zone is included in Appendix D. Table 8: Teton County Non-Agriculture Residential Potential Dwelling Unit Capacity Vacant Capacity 1,645 Additional Capacity on Developed Parcels 41 Total 1,686 For agriculture land and accessory residential units (ARUs), development trends were used to project contributions to the residential inventory over a twenty-year period. Projections were based on five units added between 2006 and 2015 on agriculture land and an average of six ARUs added per year between 2007 and 2014. This gives a more accurate representation of “realistic capacity” than using true zoned capacity. Using true zoned capacity would yield a potential of 517 units on agriculture land and over 1,000 ARUs, even though neither of these come close to being reached in the near future. Table 9: Teton County Projected Twenty-Year Residential Contributions from Agriculture and ARUs Dwelling Unit Capacity Vacant Capacity 12 Additional Capacity on Developed Parcels 120 Total 132 32 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY Residential Projections 0 50 100 150 200 250 2015201420132012201120102009200820072006200520042003200220012000 Town and County Residential Building Permits Town County 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015 Town of Jackson Residential Building Permits by Unit Type Multi-Family Units Single Family Units After growth bottomed out in 2009, Teton County and Jackson have seen relatively stable positive residential growth since, with the County having a slightly greater upward projection. Projections based on trends since 2010 is tool for projecting future land development, assuming stable growth. Single family development in the Town has shown more annual stability than multi-family development, mostly due to multi-family projects producing units en masse. Hence single units are more projectable on an annual basis, but multi- family is still highly projectable on a longer scale. Growth Trends 33 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY Table 10: Town of Jackson Average Annual Residential Growth 2010 to 2015 Total New Dwelling Units per Year 63.2 New Multi-Family Dwelling Units per Year 39.7 New Single Family Dwelling Units per Year 23.5 Table 11: Town of Jackson Residential Supply* Multi-Family Supply 15 to 18 years Single Family Supply 6 to 9 years *Based on Annual Residential Growth from 2010 to 2015. Table 12: Unincorporated Teton County Residential Land Supply Projections* 2010-2015 New Dwelling Units per Year 86.5 Residential Supply 19 years *County assumes one unit per vacant residential parcel, including those located on conservation easements. County supply drops to 15 years if assumed that no development occurs on conservation easements. The land supply projections displayed are based on a constrained land supply, not an unlimited one. They are based on the currently constrained conditions and current zoning and development regulations. A market study completed by FCS Group in 2015 reported that the unconstrained free market demand in the Town of Jackson is 119 dwelling units per year. This is clearly well above the 63 average annual units being constructed from 2010 to 2015, and the discrepancy helps explain rising demand and subsequent housing costs. Despite fluctuations in the overall yearly growth, certain ratios have remained relatively constant and are therefore highly projectable. In the Town of Jackson, 34 percent of new residential units have been single family units since 2010. This is consistent with the 37 percent seen in the previous decade, and this ratio also sees little variation on a bi-yearly basis. Another constant is the ratio of residential units built on unincorporated lands and in the Town of 34 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY Jackson. Since 2010, 1.37 units have been built on unincorporated lands for every one unit built within Town limits. This is comparable to the 1.42 ratio seen from 2000 to 2009.9 Extrapolating from this data particular concerns begin to emerge, namely the extremely constrained supply of single family housing within the Town of Jackson - just six to nine years even under currently constrained conditions. Assuming the trend of approximately a third of new units in Jackson being single family, it can be projected that single-family supply will be exhausted before multi-family. This is a problem that will be difficult to address within the town’s footprint, as the potential issue of single family capacity cannot be solved through redevelopment or up-zoning to the extent that multi-family capacity can. Almost undoubtedly, Jackson’s demand for single family housing will eventually spill over onto neighboring lands within the county. In order to protect the rural character of Teton County, having thoughtful plans that take advantage of density bonuses and complete neighborhoods will be vital. 9 Tetonwyo.org 35 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY Commercial – Town of Jackson A similar approach was taken in identifying commercial vacant potential. The results are outlined below. Figure 7: Jackson Commercial Parcels Not shown in the map is the vacant commercial land within Snow King Resort. This is due to Snow King’s “floating” entitlements, where exact locations are not owned, but rather entitlement to a particular total square footage. 36 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY Table 13: Town of Jackson Commercial Vacant Land Zone Parcels Acres Build Potential (sq. ft.) Auto-Urban Commercial (AC) 18 12.87 266,574 Urban Commercial (UC) 12 4.66 215,156 Business Park (BP) 7 4.03 62,491 Office Professional (OP) 3 0.60 12,023 NON-RESORT TOTAL 40 22.16 556,224 Snow King - - 569,918 TOTAL BUILDOUT POTENTIAL (ALL ZONES): 1,126,162  Build potential for vacant commercial parcels was calculated using the Floor Area Ratio (FAR) standards set forth by the Town of Jackson Land Development Regulations.  Build potential for Snow King was based on the Snow King Master Plan, subtracting existing development from the total allowable development. Total allowable potential outlined by the Snow King Master Plan is 915,000 sq. ft. Build potential for other resorts in the County was calculated in a similar fashion. Table 14: Snow King Remaining Development Potential Hotel 136,000 sq. ft. Love Ridge Buildings 24-36 81,354 sq. ft. Grand View Condominium Buildings 48-52 41,131 sq. ft. Grand View Lodge and Spa 32,097 sq. ft. Pine Lodge Lots 1 & 2 57,000 sq. ft. DEVELOPED 347,582 sq. ft. Hotel Parcel 50,000 sq. ft. Lot 53 55,000 sq. ft. KM-6 Unallocated 250,000 sq. ft. 212,418 sq. ft. UNDEVELOPED 569,918 sq. ft. 37 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY Calculating Commercial Redevelopment Potential Commercial redevelopment potential was analyzed by first placing the supply of developed commercial property into three categories according to redevelopment potential. The categories are based on the parcel’s ratio of improvement value to land value and are divided as follows: Category Ratio of Improvement Value to Land Value (IV/LV Ratio)10 1. No Redevelopment Potential Greater than 0.5 2. Low to Moderate Redevelopment Potential 0.3 to 0.5 3. High Redevelopment Potential Less than 0.3 The total redevelopment potential could then be calculated by finding the difference between existing development and theoretical potential on parcels with an IV/LV ratio less than 0.5. The minimum theoretical potential IV/LV ratio was established at 0.65, while the maximum was set to be 1.0. Standards were informed by redevelopment studies done at the University of Utah11 and the University of Maryland.12 Redevelopment Potential = ((𝑇ℎ𝑒𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝐼𝑉 𝐿𝑉 )−(𝐸𝑥𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝐼𝑉 𝐿𝑉 ))∗𝐿𝑉 𝐴𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝐸𝑥𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝐶𝑜𝑚𝑚𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝐼𝑉 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑠𝑞.𝑓𝑡. = (𝑇ℎ𝑒𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝐼𝑉)−(𝐸𝑥𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝐼𝑉) 𝐴𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝐸𝑥𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝐶𝑜𝑚𝑚𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝐼𝑚𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑠𝑞.𝑓𝑡. The average existing commercial improvement value per square foot of floor area for Teton County in 2016 was $67.11. 10 IV/LV ratio categories employed by many Oregon communities, notably Eugene, Corvallis, and Portland. Source: Envision Eugene Technical Resource Group, 10/31/11. 11 Nelson, A and Bjarnson, G. Estimating Commercial Land-Use Conversion: Case Study of Athens-Clarke County, Georgia. 2010. 12 National Center for Smart Growth Research and Education, University of Maryland. Estimating Development Capacity. 2005. Example calculation for parcel where LV=$100,000 and IV/LV=1.0: (1.0−0.1)∗$100,000 $67.11 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑠𝑞.𝑓𝑡 = 1,341 sq. ft. of redevelopment potential. 38 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY Figure 8: Jackson Commercial Parcels with Highest Infill/Redevelopment Potential Table 15: Town of Jackson Commercial Redevelopment Potential Potential Land Value to Improvement Value Ratio for Underdeveloped Property Redevelopment Potential (sq. ft.) 0.65 (Min. Assumption) 1,467,735 1.0 (Max Assumption) 2,798,072 *Redevelopment figures assume “75% Commercial/25% Residential” redevelopment ratio in the Central Business District, South Cache/Snow King, North Cache, Karns Meadow, and Southeast mixed use districts. Commercial - County The Town of Jackson can support 2,593,897 to 3,924,324 square feet of additional commercial development through vacant and redevelopment. 39 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY Table 16: County Commercial Vacant Land Zone Parcels Acres Build Potential (sq. ft.) Auto-Urban Commercial (AC) 5 3.63 55,328 Business Park (BP) 14 9.18 239,981 Grand Targhee Resort - - 227,508 Snake River Canyon Ranch - - 100,000 Teton Village (I, II) 390,000 TOTAL BUILD POTENTIAL (ALL ZONES): 1,012,817 sq. ft. Build potential for vacant commercial parcels was calculated using the Floor Area Ratio (FAR) standards set forth by Teton County Land Development Regulations. Build potential for resorts was based on resort master plans. Table 17: County Commercial Redevelopment Potential Average Potential Land Value to Improvement Value Ratio Redevelopment Potential (sq. ft.) 0.65 (Min. Assumption) 659,836 1.0 (Max Assumption) 1,198,937 The same methods for calculating redevelopment were used for Teton County. Refer to Town of Jackson Commercial Redevelopment section for full explanation. Unincorporated Teton County can support a total 1,672,203 to 2,211,754 square feet of additional commercial development through vacant development and redevelopment under current conditions. 40 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY Table 18: Teton County Commercial Potential Type Build Potential (millions of sq. ft.) Town of Jackson Vacant Development 1.1 Town of Jackson Redevelopment 1.5 to 2.8 Total Town of Jackson Commercial Potential 2.6 to 3.9 County Vacant Development 1.0 County Redevelopment 0.7 to 1.2 Total County Commercial 1.7 to 2.2 OVERALL TOWN AND COUNTY TOTAL 4.3 to 6.1 Commercial Projections Commercial development need projections can be made based on growth projections for residents and tourism. It is logical that office and industrial growth would tend to follow growth in population, housing, lodging and commercial, since office and industrial provides locations for service activities, as well as warehousing, distribution, utility services, cleaning services, wholesale trades and suppliers.13 For this study, lodging projections can be made using a simplified approach that assumes the current ratio of population to lodging rooms remains constant over time.11 Table 19: TETON COUNTY COMMERICAL PROJECTIONS Annual Commercial (Non-Lodging) Projection 84,640 square feet Annual Lodging Projection 32,500 square feet (81 units) Total Annual Commercial Projection 117,140 square feet Land Supply of Commercial Lands 37 to 52 years 13 FCS Group. Teton/Jackson Strategic Planning: Market Findings and Recommendations. 41 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY Commercial/Residential Balance The projections for residential and commercial development in this report represent a constrained market. In other words, these projections are not representative of actual market demand, but rather documented trends. As is seen in the ensuing graphs, the demand for residential development far outweighs actual build projections, while commercial development is keeping pace with demand. Approximately 300 additional rental units are currently needed in Teton County to achieve balance between supply and demand such that rising rents could stabilize.14 Achieving this balance will be difficult, as job growth continues to outpace housing. Market demand reveals two major trends: an imbalance of single family to multi-family housing and a substantial gap between residential and commercial demands being met. Demand for single family housing exceeds actual construction by nearly three times, while multi-family demand exceeds actual construction by close to twice as much. It is also apparent that there exists a large gap between residential demand and actual units being constructed, while commercial demand is being nearly completely met. 14 2014 Regional HNA Teton County Wyoming 42 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY Residential demand based on a study by FCS Group. Demand was calculated based on 2012 Teton County Comprehensive Plan projections. “Actual” residential units based on average annual build permits from 2010 to 2015. Commercial demand based on a market study done by FCS Group that makes projections based on existing demand and projected population and visitor trends. “Actual” commercial square footage based on calculations made in this report (see “Teton County Commercial Projections” section). 62 140 174 256 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Single Family Multi-Family A n n u a l U n it s TETON COUNTY RESIDENTIAL ACTUAL VS DEMAND Actual Demand 117,140 118,607 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 Actual Demand ANNUAL COMMERICIAL SQ FT 43 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY IMPLICATIONS This study reinforces the major concern for Teton County of an ever-worsening housing situation. Commercial land supply exceeds the residential supply by a substantial margin, and the influence of this tilted ratio can be directly tied to many of the region’s problems. Between 2010 and 2013, growth in the housing supply (3.2% rate of growth) did not keep pace with job growth (8.2% rate of growth).15 This increases the number of commuting employees from outlying communities, a trend that will likely continue to be precipitated by an unbalanced supply of commercial compared to residential allowed development. In 1990, roughly 86 percent of Teton County’s workforce lived within the county, but by 2010, the number plummeted to only 68 percent.16 The Teton County Workforce Housing Action Plan completed in November 2015 now puts this number at just 62 percent.17 Based on research done by the Blue Ribbon Panel on Workforce Housing, there is a reported “tipping point” when this number dips below 60 percent. In other words, less than 60 percent of the workforce living locally results in the town losing its sense of community, identity and character. Based on data from other resort communities, loss of local workforce is cited as a reason for lost customers for local businesses, a decrease in the level of service to guests, and as a result, the communities become less desirable places to visit and live.18 Furthermore, the rise of commuters leads to serious impacts on transportation infrastructure, wildlife and the environment, and contributes to diminished levels of voter representation, community service, and support of local business.14 15 2014 Regional Housing Needs Assessment Teton County Wyoming 16 Silbernagel, K. The Effective Population of Teton County, Wyo. 17 Teton County Workforce Housing Action Plan, November 2015. 18 The Blue Ribbon Panel on Workforce Housing. Housing Jackson Hole. 44 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY If the Town and County expect to uphold the goal of preserving community character, and maintaining Teton County as a community first and a resort second, thoughtful growth management practices will need to be implemented. Increasing residential density potential in Jackson through targeted and careful up-zoning and use incentives will be one prudent method for addressing needs, but it will likely not be adequate, especially with the demand for single family housing and lack of up-zoning opportunities. As the supply of residential land within Jackson diminishes, residential pressure on rural lands will only escalate. Planning for clustered residential development in areas of lesser impact on natural resources is something that should be considered without delay, and taking advantage of development opportunities in “complete neighborhoods” should be a significant focus moving forward. The Town should also explore implementing standardized minimum density regulations for future development. The character of Teton County is defined by the often competing worlds of community and nature, making its preservation a delicate objective. Being selective with the location and type of allowable development is essential in building a sense of community, while still maintaining the natural character that is vital to Teton County. On a broad scale, the Town could consider a shift toward encouraging residential over a swelling commercial environment by backing residential development of some of the heretofore community designated lands. Implementing strategies along these lines would lessen the burden on businesses not being able to find employees, and help prevent a growing commuter workforce. If done judiciously, such steps could be achieved without preventing healthy economic growth, or substantially impacting wildlife and natural systems. 45 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY Indicators to Monitor Actual Development vs. Plan Goals Comparing actual development trends to original Comprehensive Plan goals can help evaluate if goals are being met, and whether those goals are achieving the best interest of the community. Growth has not reached the 1994 projections, particularly in recent years as the market becomes more constrained. This is especially true with residential development. Commercial growth exceeded Comp Plan projections until 2012, mainly caused by large commercial expansion through 2006. The recession slowed commercial growth substantially, and by 2012 was back in line with Comp Plan projections. Commercial growth is projected to be down to 93.5% of the 1994 Comp Plan projections by 2020. Residential growth remained only slightly below Comp Plan projections until about 2010, when the number of units being built dropped off significantly. Residential growth is projected to be 88.6% of the 1994 Comp Plan projections by 2020. Conservation easements and Rural Land Development Regulations have helped achieve the County’s goal of decreasing residential buildout below 1994 plan projections, but similar reductions on commercial buildout are not seen. It is also legitimate to question whether the targets for each type of development are valid. Results from this study tend to show that the gap between residential and commercial development is widening more than the ratio of Comp Plan goals suggest. 46 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY *See Appendix C for full breakdown of 1994 Comp Plan Projections. 6000000 7000000 8000000 9000000 10000000 11000000 12000000 13000000 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 2 0 1 9 2 0 2 0 Commercial Growth Actual vs 1994 Comp Plan Projection (Floor Area, Square Feet) Actual 1994 Comp Plan Projection 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 13000 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 2 0 1 9 2 0 2 0 Teton County Residential Growth Actual vs 1994 Comp Plan Projection Actual Units 1994 Comp Plan Projected Units 47 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY Housing the Workforce Clearly a key takeaway from this report is the aforementioned imbalance between residential and commercial, leading to a diminishing local workforce. Understanding what is needed to improve the imbalance and making educated long term projections is vitally important to addressing the issue. A study conducted by the Town of Aspen (2014) examines the impacts of a dwindling local workforce on community character. The study states that once the percentage of the workforce living locally dips below sixty percent, major economic and community character issues are seen. Aspen is currently at thirty-six percent, while Teton County is at sixty-five percent. Conditions in Aspen were created when a ballooning service/tourist economy was given greater precedent over affordable housing in land allocation decisions. Unlike Jackson, Aspen has an urban growth boundary which allocates land based on projections. However, Aspen still provides an excellent example of how the percentage of the workforce living locally can reflect land balance issues, not unlike those seen in Teton County. The following projections are by no means definitive and more rigorous study should be conducted, but they do give a reasonable estimation of what is needed in a quantifiable manner. In 2015, there were 4.05 FTEs (full-time equivalent employees) per 1000 feet of non- lodging commercial, making up 25,230 FTEs for Teton County.19 Additionally, there were another 2,928 employees working in lodging (assuming 0.5 employees per lodging unit). The total number of employees in Teton County at that time was 28,168. Projecting job growth 19 2014 Regional HNA Teton County Wyoming 48 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY based on lodging and commercial growth gives us 29,144 FTEs in 2015. Of those 29,144 FTEs, 18,070 (62 percent)20 were held by employees living in the County.21 The assumption was made that the current level of 1.7 employees per household and 1.2 FTEs per employee would remain constant.17 Based on these conditions and commercial and lodging projections made in this report, projections for job growth can be made. From job growth, calculations for the amount of housing needed to increase the percentage of workforce locally employed can be made. The results of an example twenty-year projection are given below: 20 Teton County Workforce Housing Action Plan, November 2015. 21 It was also calculated that there were 1.83 FTEs per household in 2012. This was assumed as a constant when making projections. Annual jobs created from commercial (non-lodging): 338 Annual jobs created from lodging: 41 Annual housing units needed to maintain 62% local workforce: 150 Annual housing units needed to reach 65% local workforce by 2036: 159 Annual housing units needed to reach 67.5% local workforce by 2036: 183 Annual housing units needed to reach 70% local workforce by 2036: 209 49 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY RECOMMENDATIONS  Conduct a more detailed housing needs assessment. The 2010 Blue Ribbon Panel on Workforce Housing provides some analysis on the housing needs of a growing workforce. However, a big picture assessment is needed that specifically identifies the types and amounts of housing that are needed on a county-wide basis.  Similarly, there needs to be a more detailed market analysis done in Teton County. FCS Group’s 2015 study “Teton/Jackson Strategic Planning: Market Findings and Recommendation” provides some broad analysis of needs, but is not specific enough to capture the exact types of commercial and residential needed.  Conduct a redevelopment feasibility study and explore the economic viability of a transition from a 3:1 commercial to residential redevelopment ratio to a ratio more in favor of residential development. A 2:1 commercial to residential redevelopment ratio would be a minimum benchmark that could help reverse the imbalance of commercial to residential.  Use development trends to give a more realistic portrayal of capacity over a given time. This is especially useful in the case of agriculture land and ARUs.  Conduct a study on land use efficiency standards and utilize them to provide a more accurate portrayal of likely capacity.  Develop concise complete neighborhood plans for single family development outside the existing town boundaries. The supply of single family within Jackson is particularly 50 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY limited, and promptly making a clear plan to accommodate single family housing through complete neighborhoods and clustering will be essential in preserving the rural character of the County.  Better quantify and qualify the current percentage of the workforce that is locally employed, and make a long term goal outlining the number of units needed annually to achieve the target of housing at least 65 percent of the workforce locally.  Utilizing projections, develop a more concrete timeline for the amounts and types of future development. Communities in other regions, most notably in California, Oregon, and Washington, plan for a twenty-year supply of development with specific spatial and temporal goals. A similar model could be implemented in Teton County.  Monitor land use trends compared to Comprehensive Plan goals to evaluate if goals are being achieved and whether the goals are meeting the needs of the community.  Explore doing scenario planning, a process by which the projected long-term impacts of several scenarios are explored. This could be a good way to come up with a strategic prioritization plan that best fits the community’s vision, while improving transparency and citizen engagement. It also helps give the inventory report a much-needed timeline that can be used for consumption and needs projections.  Establish a timeline for when this type of report should be updated. This can be scheduled or on an “as needed” basis. 51 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY  For future land inventory updates, use methodology that is consistent with the work done by this study and the buildout taskforce to accurately capture trends. Document any differences in methodology. Having transparent methodology improves consistency and instills public confidence. 52 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY Sources Blue Ribbon Panel on Workforce Housing. Housing Jackson Hole. August 2010. Chase, T & Wood, T. “Teton/Jackson Strategic Planning: Market Findings and Recommendation.” FCS Group. September 2015. Clarion, Collins Planning, and Fehr & Peers. 1994 Comprehensive Plan Analysis. October 2007. Cockerham, W. (1977). Attitudes toward Land-Use Planning and Controlled Population Growth in Jackson Hole. Journal of the Community Development Society, 8(1), 62-73. Envision Eugene Technical Resource Group. Commercial Redevelopment Methodology. October 2011. Greenwood Mapping, Inc. Teton County GIS. http://tetonwy.greenwoodmap.com/gis/download. Retrieved July 2016. Gill, A. & Williams, P. (1994). Managing Growth in Mountain Communities. Tourism Management. 15(3): 212-220, 229. Haines, A. (2005). Conducting a Land Use Inventory. University of Wisconsin – Stevens Point. Jackson/Teton County 1994 Comprehensive Plan. Updated through October, 2002. James, P. (1936). Regional Planning in the Jackson Hole Country. Geographical Review, 26(3), 439-453. Knaap, G. (2001). Land market monitoring for smart urban growth. Cambridge, MA: Lincoln Institute of Land Policy. Koldus, K. (2004). Affordable Housing in Mountain Resort Towns: Policy Recommendations for June Lake, Mono County, CA. Lurie, S. & Clark, T. (1997). The Policy Frontier: Sustainability Planning in Teton County, Wyoming. Yale University. Moss, L. A. (2006). The amenity migrants: Seeking and sustaining mountains and their cultures. Wallingford, UK: CABI Pub. Moudon, A. V., & Hubner, M. H. (2000). Monitoring land supply with geographic information systems: Theory, practice, and parcel-based approaches. New York: Wiley. National Center for Smart Growth Research and Education. (2005). Estimating Development Capacity: A Guidebook for Analysis and Implementation in Maryland. University of Maryland. Nelson, A & Bjarnson, G. (2010). Estimating Commercial Land-Use Conversion: Case Study of Athens-Clarke County, Georgia. University of Utah. 53 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY Riebsame, W., Gosnell, H., & Theobald, D. (1996). Land Use and Landscape Change in the Colorado Mountains I: Theory, Scale, and Pattern. Mountain Research and Development, 16(4), 395-405. Silbernagel, K. (2013). The Effective Population of Teton County, Wyoming. Jackson Hole Conservation Alliance. August 2013. Teton County Workforce Housing Action Plan. November 2015. Teton County Land Development Regulations. Last Updated 1/1/15. Tetonwyo.org. Building Permit Records. Data Retrieved July 2016. Town of Jackson Land Development Regulations. Last Updated 1/1/15. Town of Jackson. Comprehensive Plan Update: Buildout Numbers Taskforce. September 2009. Viehman, D. Jackson Hole Real Estate Market Report. http://jacksonholerealestatereport.com. January 2016. APPENDICES APPENDIX A – COUNTY MAPS WITH COMMERICAL OWNERSHIP 54 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY TOWN OF JACKSON PERIPHERY MAP ID DESCRIPTION OWNERSHIP AREA 1 STILSON PARK JHMR CORPORATION 15.18 ACRES 2 LUNDY (LOTS 24-25) TETON PASS PROPERTIES LLC 0.31 ACRES TETON VILLAGE 55 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY MAP ID DESCRIPTION OWNERSHIP AREA 1 TETON VILLAGE H-1 REAL ESTATE, LLC 3.26 ACRES 2 LOT 224, 225 CODY LANE, LLC 1.28 ACRES 3 LOT 223 TETON VILLAGE ASSOCIATION 1.94 ACRES 4 LOT 202 NORTHCLUB, LLC 0.49 ACRES 5 LOT 222 ALPENHOF LODGE ASSOCIATES 0.31 ACRES 6 LOT 216 SNAKE RIVER LODGE HOTEL INVESTORS, LLC; NEWPORT HOTEL GROUP 0.65 ACRES 7 LOT 205 TETON VILLAGE PROPERTIES LLC 0.57 ACRES 8 LOT 212 JHMR CORPORATION 2.22 ACRES 9 LOT 3-4, PARCEL I CRYSTAL SPRINGS RANCH, INC. 1.19 ACRES 10 TETON VILLAGE FOUR SHADOWS LLC 12.25 ACRES JACKSON HOLE RACQUET CLUB RESORT 56 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY MAP ID DESCRIPTION OWNERSHIP AREA 1 LOT 135, THE ASPENS ASPEN PROPERTIES II, LLC 0.39 ACRES 2 LOT 1, J.H.R.C.R. TETON PINES OWNERS ASSOCIATION, HIGH MOUNTAIN GROUP 2.68 ACRES 3 LOT 29, MEADOW OF TETON PINES PHASE 3 TETON PINES LTD. LIABILITY CO. 0.72 ACRES SOUTH PARK 57 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY MAP ID DESCRIPTION OWNERSHIP AREA 1 CREEK RANCH RANCHES AT JH, LLC. 0.92 ACRES 2 BUSINESS PARK ZONE HUNT, RICHARD & KIMBERLY S. 1.11 ACRES 3 S. PARK SERVICE CENTER HORIZON COMM., INC. 1.09 ACRES 4 YEARSLY SUBDIVISION MAM REVOCABLE TRUST 1.09 ACRES 5 VALLEY VIEW BUSINESS PARK SEE FOOTNOTE22 2.70 ACRES (6 PARCELS) 6 O BAR B MAYERS, RANDELL S. O BAR B RENTALS 1.07 ACRES 0.48 ACRES 7 SNAKE RIVER BUS. PARK INCLINE REAL ESTATE 1.15 ACRES 8 ROICE SUBDIVISION STORAGE STABLES 307, LLC 0.42 ACRES 22 4 C'S REAL ESTATE, LLC; FREDERICK LANDSCAPING; HODGES, MARK D. & JULIE A. TRUSTEES; MILLS, WIND B. & SETH T; GOODMARSH, LLC (2 Parcels) 58 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY HOBACK MAP ID DESCRIPTION OWNERSHIP AREA 1 ROGERS POINT LEWIS, RODNEY 2.21 ACRES 2 HOBACK HOBACK STORES, LLC 0.48 ACRES 3 SNAKE RIVER CANYON RANCH SNAKE RIVER CANYON RANCH 100,000 sq. ft. build potential ALTA AND GRAND TARGHEE 59 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY MAP ID DESCRIPTION OWNERSHIP BUILD POTENTIAL 1 GRAND TARGHEE GRAND TARGHEE RESORT 22,058 sq. ft. APPENDIX B – LAND DEVELOPMENT REGULATIONS AND CHARACTER DISTRICTS 60 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY Summary of Land Development Regulations by Zone Zone Abbreviation Zone Name Subdivision Min Lot Size (sq. ft.) Max Density S Suburban 12,000 4.0 du/ac23 UR Urban Residential 5,000 23.5 du/ac UC Urban Commercial 5,000 23.5 du/ac UC-224 Urban Commercial-2 5,000 23.5 du/ac AR Auto-Urban Residential 7,500 11.7 du/ac BP Business Park 5,000 11.7 du/ac RB Residential Business 7,500 1 du per lot OP Office Professional 7,500 8.7 du/ac AC Auto-Urban Commercial 7,500 11.7 du/ac R-TOJ Rural Residential – Town 12,000 - R-1, R-2, R-3 Rural (County) - 1 unit per 35 ac *Complete Neighborhood Character Districts Character District Description Status Targeted Use DISTRICT 1 TOWN SQUARE* 23 4.0 du/ac assumes 35% urban cluster development ratio with a minimum site area of 80,000 sq. ft. 24 UC-2 intended to have less intense development than UC, even though maximum allowed density is the same. 61 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY 1.1 Inner Square Stable Commercial 1.2 Outer Square Stable Commercial, Residential DISTRICT 2 TOWN COMMERCIAL CORE* 2.1 Snow King Resort Transitional Commercial, Residential 2.2 Snow King and South Cache Corridors Transitional Commercial, Residential 2.3 Downtown Transitional Commercial, Residential 2.4 Public/Civic Campus Stable Public, Institutional 2.5 North Cache Gateway Transitional Commercial, Residential 2.6 Mixed Use Office and Residential Transitional Commercial, Residential DISTRICT 3 TOWN RESIDENTIAL CORE* 3.1 East Jackson Stable Residential 3.2 Core Residential Transitional Residential 3.3 Rodeo Grounds Stable Institutional 3.4 May Park Area Stable Residential DISTRICT 4 MIDTOWN* 4.1 Midtown Highway Corridor Transitional Commercial, Residential 4.2 Northern Hillside Transitional Commercial, Residential 4.3 Central Midtown Transitional Commercial, Residential 4.4 Midtown Residential Stable Residential 4.5 Karns Meadow Preservation Wildlife Habitat/Corridor DISTRICT 5 WEST JACKSON* 5.1 West Jackson Highway Corridor Transitional Commercial, Residential 5.2 Gregory Lane Area Transitional Industrial, Residential 5.3 High School Butte Transitional Commercial, Residential 5.4 School Campus Stable Institutional 5.5 West Jackson Residential Stable Residential 5.6 Northern South Park Transitional Residential OR Preservation 62 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY DISTRICT 6 TOWN PERIPHERY* 6.1 Low/Medium Density Neighborhoods Stable Residential 6.2 Upper Cache Stable Residential 6.3 Snow King Slope Preservation Recreation, Wildlife, Scenic Character District Description Status Targeted Use DISTRICT 7 SOUTH HIGHWAY 89* 7.1 South Park Business Park Stable Industrial, Residential 7.2 Hog Island Stable Residential, Small Business DISTRICT 8 RIVER BOTTOM 8.1 Existing River Bottom Subdivisions Conservation Residential, Wildlife 8.2 Large River Bottom Parcels Preservation Habitat Preservation 8.3 Canyon Corridor Conservation Wildlife, Scenic 8.4 Hoback Junction Stable Commercial DISTRICT 9 COUNTY VALLEY 9.1 JH Golf and Tennis Conservation Resort, Wildlife 9.2 Agricultural Foreground Preservation Agriculture, Open Space 9.3 County Valley Subdivisions Conservation Wildlife, Light Residential 9.4 Gros Ventre Buttes Conservation Wildlife, Light Residential DISTRICT 10 SOUTH PARK 10.1 Southern South Park Conservation Wildlife, Residential 10.2 Central South Park Preservation Agriculture, Open Space DISTRICT 11 WILSON* 11.1 Wilson Commercial Core Transitional Commercial, Residential 11.2 Wilson Town Site Stable Residential (with ARUs) 11.3 Wilson Meadows Stable Residential 11.4 South Wilson Stable Wildlife, Light Residential 63 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY DISTRICT 12 ASPEN PINES* 12.1 Aspen/Pines Commercial Core Transitional Commercial, Residential 12.2 390 Residential Stable Residential 12.3 Aspen/Pines Residential Stable Residential, Open Space DISTRICT 13 TETON VILLAGE* 13.1 Teton Village Commercial Core Transitional Commercial, Residential 13.2 Teton Village Residential Core Transitional Residential (All Types) 13.3 Teton Village Single Family Stable Residential Character District Description Status Targeted Use DISTRICT 14 Alta 14.1 Alta Farmland Preservation Agriculture 14.2 Alta Core Stable Institutional, Infill 14.3 Grand Targhee Transitional Resort, Residential DISTRICT 15 County Periphery 15.1 Large Outlying Parcels Preservation Wildlife, Light Residential 15.2 Game Creek/South Fall Creek Conservation Wildlife, Light Residential 15.3 Buffalo Valley Preservation Agriculture, Residential 15.4 Kelly Conservation Wildlife, Light Residential 64 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY APPENDIX C – 1994 Comprehensive Plan Projections *Existing numbers from January, 1996. 65 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY APPENDIX D – COUNTY VACANT RESIDENTIAL POTENTIAL BY ZONE County Vacant Residential Lands Zone Development ID Parcels Acres Rural-1 (R1) 187 5,947.70 Planned Unit Development R1 (PUD-R1) Triangle Q Ranch 1 89.1 Granite Creek 1 43.68 Rural-2 (R2) 174 3,124.54 Planned Unit Development R2 (PUD-R2) Triangle Q Ranch 1 5.39 Lucky L Ranch 1 12.50 Indian Springs Ranch 6 74.54 Crescent H Ranch 17 49.02 Bar B Bar Meadows 9 143.32 Dairy Ranches 4 82.24 Eagle South Fork 12 12.09 Rural-3 (R3) 707 2,931.37 Planned Unit Development R3 (PUD-R3) Creek Ranch 57 88.75 Indian Springs Ranch 7 46.64 Bar B Bar Meadows 21 42.23 Melody Ranch 39 78.50 Rafter J Ranch 13 80.27 Zone Development ID Parcels Acres 66 Developing a Methodology for Analyzing Buildable Lands in Teton County, WY Neighborhood Conservation – Planned Unit Development (NC-PUD) Jackson Hole Racquet Club Resort 42 38.66 Ellen Creek 5 48.77 The Ranches at Spring Creek 44 310.64 Neighborhood Conservation (NC) 146 206.23 Suburban - County (S-TC) 9 32.51 Auto-Urban Commercial (AC) 2 2.32 Planned Resort Residential Teton Village I 45 55.24 Teton Village II 83 145.67 Grand Targhee 29 32.02 Snake River Canyon 8 112.81 TOTAL 1,668 13,783.75