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Browsing by Subject "Expectations"
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Now showing items 1-13 of 13
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(University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2006-07-31)This paper develops a simple two-country, two-good model of international trade and borrowing that suppresses all previous sources of current account dynamics. Under rational expectations, international debt follows a ...
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(University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2007-02-18)We consider the impact of anticipated policy changes when agents form expectations using adaptive learning rather than rational expectations. To model this we assume that agents combine limited structural knowledge with ...
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(University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2003-03-17)Earlier studies of the seigniorage inflation model have found that the high-inflation steady state is not stable under adaptive learning. We reconsider this issue and analyze the full set of solutions for the linearized ...
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(University of Oregon, 2014-02)The STEM fields (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) have been historically male dominated, and continue to be so today. The reasons for this are numerous and complex. This study focuses on the role that ...
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(University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2010-08-04)This paper considers the Ricardian Equivalence proposition when expectations are not rational and are instead formed using adaptive learning rules. We show that Ricardian Equivalence continues to hold provided suitable ...
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(University of Oregon, 2013-10-03)This dissertation examines the forecast model selection problem in economics in both theoretical and empirical settings. The forecast model selection problem is that there often exists a menu of different suitable models ...
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(University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2002-07-25)We extend common factor analysis to a multi-dimensional setting by considering a bivariate reduced form consistent with many Real Business Cycle type models. We show how to obtain new representations of sunspots and find ...
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(University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2003-05-16)We introduce the concept of a Misspecification Equilibrium to dynamic macroeconomics. Agents choose between a list of misspecified econometric models and base their selection on relative forecast performance. A Misspecification ...
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(University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2004-12-07)This paper addresses the output-price volatility puzzle by studying the interaction of optimal monetary policy and agents' beliefs. We assume that agents choose their information acquisition rate by minimizing a loss ...
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(University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2003-10-11)The development of tractable forward looking models of monetary policy has lead to an explosion of research on the implications of adopting Taylor-type interest rate rules. Indeterminacies have been found to arise for some ...
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(University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2005-09-17)We study how the use of judgement or "add-factors" in macroeconomic forecasting may disturb the set of equilibrium outcomes when agents learn using recursive methods. We isolate conditions under which new phenomena, which ...
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(University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2002-08-03)We investigate both the rational explosive inflation paths studied by (McCallum 2001), and the classification of fiscal and monetary polices proposed by (Leeper 1991), for stability under learning of the rational expectations ...
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(University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2005-02-01)We compare the performance of alternative recursive forecasting models. A simple constant gain algorithm, used widely in the learning literature, both forecasts well out of sample and also provides the best fit to the ...
Now showing items 1-13 of 13