Gray, Jo Annahttps://scholarsbank.uoregon.edu/xmlui/handle/1794/36912024-03-29T11:05:26Z2024-03-29T11:05:26ZThe rising share of nonmarital births: A response to Ermisch, Martin, and WuGray, Jo AnnaStockard, JeanStone, Joe A. (Joe Allan), 1948-https://scholarsbank.uoregon.edu/xmlui/handle/1794/97952015-06-17T20:14:22Z2008-09-01T00:00:00ZThe rising share of nonmarital births: A response to Ermisch, Martin, and Wu
Gray, Jo Anna; Stockard, Jean; Stone, Joe A. (Joe Allan), 1948-
16 p.
2008-09-01T00:00:00ZRace Differences in Cohort Effects on Nonmarital Fertility in the United StatesStone, Joe A. (Joe Allan), 1948-Gray, Jo AnnaStockard, JeanO'Brien, Roberthttps://scholarsbank.uoregon.edu/xmlui/handle/1794/83082015-06-17T22:55:00Z2008-01-01T00:00:00ZRace Differences in Cohort Effects on Nonmarital Fertility in the United States
Stone, Joe A. (Joe Allan), 1948-; Gray, Jo Anna; Stockard, Jean; O'Brien, Robert
We employ newly developed methods to disentangle age, period and cohort
effects on nonmarital fertility ratios (NFRs) from 1972 to 2002 for black and white
women aged 20-44 in the United States. We focus on three cohort factors: family
structure, school enrollment, and the sex ratio. For both blacks and whites, cohorts with
less traditional family structures have higher NFRs. Other results differ by race. The
impact of school enrollment on NFRs is significantly negative for whites, but
significantly positive for blacks. The impact of sex ratio is significantly negative for
blacks, but insignificant for whites. If black women and white women had cohort
characteristics typical of the other group, age-specific NFRs for black women would
decline markedly, while those for whites would increase markedly.
48 p.
2008-01-01T00:00:00ZThe Rising Share of Nonmarital Births Fertility Choice or Marriage Behavior? Response to Ermisch, Martin, and Wu*Stone, Joe A. (Joe Allan), 1948-Stockard, JeanGray, Jo Annahttps://scholarsbank.uoregon.edu/xmlui/handle/1794/82632023-06-06T18:33:51Z2008-09-01T00:00:00ZThe Rising Share of Nonmarital Births Fertility Choice or Marriage Behavior? Response to Ermisch, Martin, and Wu*
Stone, Joe A. (Joe Allan), 1948-; Stockard, Jean; Gray, Jo Anna
In a 2006 article in Demography, Jo Anna Gray, Jean Stockard and Joe Stone (GSSi)observe that
among black women and white women ages 20 to 39, birth rates increased sharply for unmarried women
over the period 1974 to 2000. But they also increased for married women, as well, and yet the total birth
rate for married and unmarried women combined was essentially unchanged; ii)conclude that's since the
total birth rate did not change, it seems obvious by inspection that the rises in unmarried and married birth
rates could not have come from a general rise in fertility among women 20-39; iii)argue that these
patterns are an example of a phenomenon called "Simpson's paradox", often illustrated by a joke, as told
at Harvard, that when a student transfers from Harvard to Yale, mean intelligence rises at both places.
Both means rise not because the average intelligence of the combined student bodies changed, but
because the composition of the student body changed at each school; iv) conclude that between 1974 and
2000, sharp increases in the proportion of women who were single, termed the single share, or Su,
changed the composition of the pools of married and unmarried women. The rising single share had a
selection effect on the pools of married and unmarried women akin to the hypothetical student transfer
from Harvard to Yale. Women with target fertility below the average for married women, but above the
average for unmarried women, became less likely to marry than previously, so that mean birth rates for
both groups rose over the period, and iv) using age/race-specific panel data, find parameter values
strikingly consistent with those predicted by their illustrative model, and a dominant role for the selection
effect of the single share in determining NFR on this. Recently Ermisch Martin and Wu (EMW) have
challenged the GSS findings and conclusions. In this response GSS respond to the EMW challenges, and
reaffirm the GSS results and conclusions.
19 pages
2008-09-01T00:00:00ZCohort Effects on Nonmarital FertilityStockard, JeanGray, Jo AnnaO'Brien, RobertStone, Joe A. (Joe Allan), 1948-https://scholarsbank.uoregon.edu/xmlui/handle/1794/51322009-10-21T20:16:50Z2007-05-01T00:00:00ZCohort Effects on Nonmarital Fertility
Stockard, Jean; Gray, Jo Anna; O'Brien, Robert; Stone, Joe A. (Joe Allan), 1948-
The authors employ a newly developed method to disentangle age, period and
cohort effects on nonmarital fertility ratios (NFR) from 1972 to 2002 for U.S. women
aged 20-44 – with a focus on three specific cohort factors: family structure, school
enrollment, and the ratio of men to women. All play significant roles in determining NFR
and vary substantially for whites and blacks. Indeed, if black women and white women
had cohort characteristics typical of the other group, age-specific NFRs for black women
would decline markedly, while those for whites would increase markedly. Hence, cohort
related variables contribute substantially to black-white differences in NFR in adulthood.
Early family structure and education are particularly crucial in the racial differences.
Most distinctively, while the impact of school enrollment on NFR is significantly
negative for whites, the impact is significantly positive for blacks, perhaps due to the
dominance of the “independence” effect.
45 p.
2007-05-01T00:00:00Z