The efficacy of middle school indicators to predict the academic and behavioral performance of at-risk ninth graders
McKee, Michael Todd
Dropping out of high school may have individual as well as social implications. The process of dropping out is attributed to social and academic risk factors. Attendance, course completion and grade-point-average have been identified as key indicators of students off-track for graduation. This study utilized a single exploratory case design with embedded quantitative statistical analysis to understand the characteristics of 416 students transitioning from three middle schools to a large, suburban high school. Correlation and regression analyses were used to examine the relationship between 12 middle school indicators and ninth grade attendance, course completion, and grade-point-average. Findings suggested that middle school grade-point-average, course grade D, attendance, and ACT math scores were strong predictors of ninth grade performance. The major implications have highlighted key middle school risk indicators for identifying and providing intervention to transitioning students at risk of school failure.
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