Modeling Wildfire and Ignitions for Climate Change and Alternative Land Management Scenarios in the Willamette Valley, Oregon

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dc.contributor.author Sheehan, Timothy J.
dc.date.accessioned 2012-04-20T01:21:54Z
dc.date.available 2012-04-20T01:21:54Z
dc.date.issued 2011-12
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/1794/12184
dc.description xii, 127 p. : ill. (some col.) en_US
dc.description.abstract I developed software to incorporate the FlamMap fire model into an agent-based model, Envision, to enable the exploration of relationships between wildfire, land use, climate change, and vegetation dynamics in the Willamette Valley. A dynamic-link library plug-in utilizing row-ordered compressed array lookup tables converts parameters between polygon-based Envision data and grid-based FlamMap data. Modeled fires are determined through Monte-Carlo draws against a set of possible fires by linking historic fire data to future climate projections. I used classification and regression tree (CART) and logistic regression to relate ignitions to human and land use factors in the Willamette Valley above the valley floor from 2000-2009. Both methods showed decreasing distance to major and minor roads as key factors that increase ignition probability for human ignitions but not for lightning ignitions. The resulting statistical model is implemented in the FlamMap plug-in to provide a dynamic ignition probability map over time. en_US
dc.description.sponsorship Committee in charge: Dr. Bart Johnson, Co-Chair; Dr. Scott Bridgham ,Co-Chair; Dr. John Bolte; Member en_US
dc.language.iso en_US en_US
dc.publisher University of Oregon en_US
dc.relation.ispartofseries University of Oregon theses, Dept. of Biology, M.S, 2011;
dc.rights rights_reserved en_US
dc.subject Ecology en_US
dc.subject Natural resources -- Management en_US
dc.subject Computer science en_US
dc.subject Health and environmental sciences en_US
dc.subject Applied science en_US
dc.subject Biological sciences en_US
dc.subject Ignitions en_US
dc.subject Lightning en_US
dc.subject Willamette Valley en_US
dc.subject Willamette River Valley (Or.) en_US
dc.title Modeling Wildfire and Ignitions for Climate Change and Alternative Land Management Scenarios in the Willamette Valley, Oregon en_US
dc.type Thesis en_US


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