A Subjectivist View of Calibration
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Date
1982
Authors
Kadane, Joseph B.
Lichtenstein, Sarah
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Decision Research
Abstract
Calibration concerns the relationship between subjective
probabilities and the long-run frequencies of events. Theorems from
the statistical and probability literature are reviewed to discover
the conditions under which a coherent Bayesian expects to be calibrated.
If the probability assessor knows the outcomes of all previous events
when making each assessment, calibration is always expected. However,
when such outcome feedback is lacking, the assessor expects to be
well calibrated on an exchangeable set of events if and only if
all the events in question are viewed as independent. Although this
strong condition has not been tested in previous research, we speculate
that the past findings of pervasive overconfidence are not invalid.
Although experimental studies of calibration hold promise for the
development of cognitive theories of confidence, their value for the
practice of probability assessment seems more limited. Efforts to train
probability assessors to be calibrated may be misplaced.
Description
34 pages
Keywords
Calibration, Statistics, Probability, Subjectivist
Citation
Kadane, J., & Lichtenstein, S. (1982). A subjectivist view of calibration (Report No. 82-6). Eugene, OR: Decision Research.