The Subjective Probability of Conjunctions
Previous experiments have demonstrated but not explained people's tendency to exaggerate the probability of conjunctive events. The present study explores this tendency in several different contexts designed to reveal how the overestimation process works; the events which served as stimuli were either repetitive or unique with or without causal links between them. The design was either a within-subject or a between-subject design. The response mode was either percentages or chances. The results suggest that people use different strategies to assess conjunctions in different situations, all of which lead to overestimation. These processes are discussed and some suggestions are made about ways to overcome their negative effects.