Psychological processes in decision making: probabilities, risk and chance
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In modern societies, many of the decisions ordinary people are expected to make are based on numerical information. As a reflection of this fact, the contributions in this issue treat decisions and judgments based on numerical information in different formats and in different contexts. Even though, we all want to use the information that is available to us in an optimal way when we make decisions, we are not always able to do so. This is particularly true for intuitive unaided decisions and therefore the set of six papers in this special issue section investigate some of these shortcomings and gives us some hints as how to overcome them. Decisions concern the future, and this means that outcomes and consequences of decisions will appear in the future. However, in most contexts what will happen in the future is not certain and different outcomes could follow a decision. Hence, many decisions have to be taken under risk and uncertainty, which is the main theme of the EGPROC1 papers of this issue. Because, the uncertainty of the future is often described by probabilities of different outcomes and consequences of a decision, much decision research including the papers in this issue have studied different aspects of probability. A methodological process perspective is another theme that also characterizes most of the contributions.