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  • Optimal Constrained Interest-rate Rules 
    Evans, George W., 1949-; McGough, Bruce (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2005-05-19)
    We show that if policy-makers compute the optimal unconstrained interest-rate rule within a Taylor-type class, they may be led to rules that generate indeterminacy and/or instability under learning. This problem is compounded ...
  • Policy Interaction, Expectations and the Liquidity Trap 
    Evans, George W., 1949-; Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951- (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2003-04-30)
    We consider inflation and government debt dynamics when monetary policy employs a global interest rate rule and private agents forecast using adaptive learning. Because of the zero lower bound on interest rates, active ...
  • Policy Interaction, Learning and the Fiscal Theory of Prices 
    Evans, George W., 1949-; Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951- (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2002-08-03)
    We investigate both the rational explosive inflation paths studied by (McCallum 2001), and the classification of fiscal and monetary polices proposed by (Leeper 1991), for stability under learning of the rational expectations ...
  • Representations and Sunspot Stability 
    Evans, George W., 1949-; McGough, Bruce (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2007-01-01)
    By endowing his agents with simple forecasting models, or representations, Woodford (1990) found that finite state Markov sunspot equilibria may be stable under learning. We show that common factor representations ...
  • A Simple Recursive Forecasting Model 
    Branch, William A.; Evans, George W., 1949- (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2005-02-01)
    We compare the performance of alternative recursive forecasting models. A simple constant gain algorithm, used widely in the learning literature, both forecasts well out of sample and also provides the best fit to the ...
  • Stable Finite-State Markov Sunspots 
    Evans, George W., 1949-; McGough, Bruce (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2006-10-09)
    We consider a linear univariate rational expectations model, with a predetermined variable, and study existence and stability of solutions driven by an extraneous finite-state Markov process. We show that when the model ...
  • Stable Noisy K-state Markov Sunspots 
    Evans, George W., 1949-; McGough, Bruce (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2002-07-18)
    We consider a linear stochastic univariate rational expectations model, with a predetermined variable, and consider solutions driven by an extraneous finite state Markov process as well as by the fundamental noise. We ...
  • Stable Sunspot Equilibira in a Cash-in-Advance Economy 
    Evans, George W., 1949-; Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951-; Marimon, Ramon, 1953- (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2002-10-25)
    We develop a monetary model with flexible supply of labor, cash in advance constraints and government spending financed by seignorage. This model has two regimes. One regime is conventional with two steady states. The other ...
  • Stable Sunspot Solutions in Models with Predetermined Variables 
    Evans, George W., 1949-; McGough, Bruce (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2002-04-17)
    We consider a linear stochastic univariate rational expectations model, with a predetermined variable, and provide alternative representations of SSEs (stationary sunspot equilibria). For a strict subset of the parameter ...
  • Stagnation Regime of the New Keynesian Model and Current US Policy 
    Evans, George W., 1949- (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2010-10-30)
    In Evans, Guse, and Honkapohja (2008) the intended steady state is locally but not globally stable under adaptive learning, and unstable deflationary paths can arise after large pessimistic shocks to expectations. In ...

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