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Evans, George W., 1949; Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951 (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, April 30, 2003)[more][less]Evans, George W., 1949 Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951 20031211T19:40:09Z 20031211T19:40:09Z 20030430 http://hdl.handle.net/1794/125 We consider inflation and government debt dynamics when monetary policy employs a global interest rate rule and private agents forecast using adaptive learning. Because of the zero lower bound on interest rates, active interest rate rules are known to imply the existence of a second, low inflation steady state, below the target inflation rate. Under adaptive learning dynamics we find the additional possibility of a liquidity trap, in which the economy slips below this low inflation steady state and is driven to an even lower inflation floor that is supported by a switch to an aggressive money supply rule. Fiscal policy alone cannot push the economy out of the liquidity trap. However, raising the threshold at which the money supply rule is employed can dislodge the economy from the liquidity trap and ensure a return to the target equilibrium. 787,053 bytes application/pdf en_US University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers;200333. Macroeconomics Monetary policy Banks and banking, Central Monetary economics Finance, Public Macroeconomic policy Comparative or joint analysis of fiscal and monetary policy Stabilization Central banking Bank loans Monetary policy (Targets, instruments, and effects) Credit Policy Interaction, Expectations and the Liquidity Trap Working Paper

Evans, George W., 1949; Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951 (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, August 3, 2002)[more][less]Evans, George W., 1949 Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951 20030815T21:15:41Z 20030815T21:15:41Z 20020803 http://hdl.handle.net/1794/101 We investigate both the rational explosive inflation paths studied by (McCallum 2001), and the classification of fiscal and monetary polices proposed by (Leeper 1991), for stability under learning of the rational expectations equilibria (REE). Our first result is that the fiscalist REE in the model of (McCallum 2001) is not locally stable under learning. In contrast, in the setting of (Leeper 1991), different possibilities can arise. We find, in particular, that there are parameter domains for which the fiscal theory solution, in which fiscal variables affect the price level, can be a stable outcome under learning. However, for other parameter domains the monetarist solution is instead the stable equilibrium. 417792 bytes application/pdf en_US University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers;200217 Explosive price paths Fiscal and monetary policy Expectations Inflation (Finance) Microeconomics Macroeconomics Policy Interaction, Learning and the Fiscal Theory of Prices Working Paper

Evans, George W., 1949; McGough, Bruce (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, January 1, 2007)[more][less]Evans, George W., 1949 McGough, Bruce 20070219T19:00:47Z 20070219T19:00:47Z 20070101 http://hdl.handle.net/1794/3871 8 p. By endowing his agents with simple forecasting models, or representations, Woodford (1990) found that finite state Markov sunspot equilibria may be stable under learning. We show that common factor representations generalize to all sunspot equilibria the representations used by Woodford (1990). We find that if finite state Markov sunspots are stable under learning then all sunspots are stable under learning, provided common factor representations are used. 122477 bytes application/pdf en_US University of Oregon, Dept of Economics University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers ; 20071 Indeterminacy Sunspots Equilibria Estability Representations and Sunspot Stability Working Paper

Branch, William A.; Evans, George W., 1949 (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, February 1, 2005)[more][less]Branch, William A. Evans, George W., 1949 20050322T22:26:23Z 20050322T22:26:23Z 20050201 http://hdl.handle.net/1794/654 10 p. We compare the performance of alternative recursive forecasting models. A simple constant gain algorithm, used widely in the learning literature, both forecasts well out of sample and also provides the best fit to the Survey of Professional Forecasters. 252245 bytes application/pdf en_US University of Oregon, Dept of Economics University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers ; 20053 Constant gain Recursive learning Expectations A Simple Recursive Forecasting Model Working Paper

Evans, George W., 1949; McGough, Bruce (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, October 9, 2006)[more][less]Evans, George W., 1949 McGough, Bruce 20061121T17:35:06Z 20061121T17:35:06Z 20061009 http://hdl.handle.net/1794/3632 45 p. Revision of: Stable noisy Kstate Markov Sunspots. We consider a linear univariate rational expectations model, with a predetermined variable, and study existence and stability of solutions driven by an extraneous finitestate Markov process. We show that when the model is indeterminate there exists a new class of kstate dependent sunspot equilibria in addition to the kstate sunspot equilibria (kSSEs) already known to exist in part of the indeterminacy region. The new type of equilibria, which we call ergodic kSSEs, are driven by a finitestate sunspot but can have an infinite range of values even in the nonstochastic model. Stability under econometric learning is analyzed using representations that nest both types of equilibria. 2SSEs and ergodic 2SSEs are learnable for parameters in proper subsets of the regions of their existence. Our results extend to models with intrinsic random shocks. 761525 bytes application/pdf en_US University of Oregon, Dept of Economics University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers ; 200613 Markov sunspots Learning Indeterminacy Expectational stability Stable FiniteState Markov Sunspots Working Paper

Evans, George W., 1949; McGough, Bruce (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, July 18, 2002)[more][less]Evans, George W., 1949 McGough, Bruce 20030815T21:23:22Z 20030815T21:23:22Z 20020718 http://hdl.handle.net/1794/103 We consider a linear stochastic univariate rational expectations model, with a predetermined variable, and consider solutions driven by an extraneous finite state Markov process as well as by the fundamental noise. We obtain conditions for existence of noisy kstate sunspot equilibria (noisy kSSEs) and, for the case k=2, of noisy kstate dependent sunspot equilibria (noisy k*SDSs). k*SDSs are driven by a finite stable sunspot but have an infinite range of values even in the nonstochastic model. Stability under econometric learning is analyzed using representations that nest both types of solution. For the case k=2, we find that noisy 2SSEs and noisy 2*SDSs are learnable for parameters in proper subsets of the regions of their existence. 759808 bytes application/pdf en_US University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers;200219 Economics Sunspots Stable Noisy Kstate Markov Sunspots Working Paper

Evans, George W., 1949; Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951; Marimon, Ramon, 1953 (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, October 25, 2002)[more][less]Evans, George W., 1949 Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951 Marimon, Ramon, 1953 20030812T20:41:49Z 20030812T20:41:49Z 20021025 http://hdl.handle.net/1794/72 We develop a monetary model with flexible supply of labor, cash in advance constraints and government spending financed by seignorage. This model has two regimes. One regime is conventional with two steady states. The other regime has a unique steady state which can be determinate or indeterminate. In the latter case there exist sunspot equilibria which are stable under adaptive learning, taking the form of noisy finite state Markov processes at resonant frequencies. For a range of parameter values, a sufficient reduction in government purchases will eliminate these equilibria. 0 bytes application/pdf en_US University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers;20015 Indeterminacy Learnability Expectational stability Endogenous fluctuations Seignorage (Finance) Mathematical and quantitative methods Microeconomics Macroeconomics and monetary economics Stable Sunspot Equilibira in a CashinAdvance Economy Working Paper

Evans, George W., 1949; McGough, Bruce (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, April 17, 2002)[more][less]Evans, George W., 1949 McGough, Bruce 20030815T21:11:27Z 20030815T21:11:27Z 20020417 http://hdl.handle.net/1794/100 We consider a linear stochastic univariate rational expectations model, with a predetermined variable, and provide alternative representations of SSEs (stationary sunspot equilibria). For a strict subset of the parameter space there exist SSEs that are locally stable under least squares learning provided agents use a common factor representation for their estimated law of motion. These results indicate that for some parameter regions SSEs are more likely to arise under private agent learning than previously recognized. 529408 bytes application/pdf en_US University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers;200216 Economics Sunspots Stable Sunspot Solutions in Models with Predetermined Variables Working Paper

Evans, George W., 1949 (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, October 30, 2010)[more][less]Evans, George W., 1949 20110210T00:57:16Z 20110210T00:57:16Z 20101030 http://hdl.handle.net/1794/10969 25 p. In Evans, Guse, and Honkapohja (2008) the intended steady state is locally but not globally stable under adaptive learning, and unstable deflationary paths can arise after large pessimistic shocks to expectations. In the current paper a modified model is presented that includes a locally stable stagnation regime as a possible outcome arising from large expectation shocks. Policy implications are examined. Sufficiently large temporary increases in government spending can dislodge the economy from the stagnation regime and restore the natural stabilizing dynamics. More specific policy proposals are presented and discussed. en_US University of Oregon, Dept of Economics University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers;20106 Stagnation (Economics) Fiscal and monetary policy Deflation trap Stagnation Regime of the New Keynesian Model and Current US Policy Working Paper
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