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  • Learning about Risk and Return: A Simple Model of Bubbles and Crashes 
    Branch, William A.; Evans, George W., 1949- (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2008-01-31)
    This paper demonstrates that an asset pricing model with least-squares learning can lead to bubbles and crashes as endogenous responses to the fundamentals driving asset prices. When agents are risk-averse they generate ...
  • Learning and Macroeconomics 
    Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951-; Evans, George W., 1949- (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2008-07-11)
    Expectations play a central role in modern macroeconomic theories. The econometric learning approach models economic agents as forming expectations by estimating and updating forecasting models in real time. The learning ...
  • Liquidity Traps, Learning and Stagnation 
    Evans, George W., 1949-; Guse, Eran A. (Eran Alan), 1975-; Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951- (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2007-06-05)
    We examine global economic dynamics under learning in a New Keynesian model in which the interest-rate rule is subject to the zero lower bound. Under normal monetary and fiscal policy, the intended steady state is locally ...
  • Model Uncertainty and Endogenous Volatility 
    Branch, William A.; Evans, George W., 1949- (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2005-10-18)
    This paper identifies two channels through which the economy can generate endogenous inflation and output volatility, an empirical regularity, by introducing model uncertainty into a Lucas-type monetary model. The equilibrium ...
  • Monetary Policy and Heterogeneous Expectations 
    Branch, William A.; Evans, George W., 1949- (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2010-04-30)
    This paper studies the implications for monetary policy of heterogeneous expectations in a New Keynesian model. The assumption of rational expec- tations is replaced with parsimonious forecasting models where agents ...
  • Monetary Policy and Stable Indeterminacy with Inertia 
    Evans, George W., 1949-; McGough, Bruce (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2004-03-29)
    We examine existence and stability under learning of sunspot equilibria in a New Keynesian model incorporating inertia. Indeterminacy remains prevalent, stable sunspots abound, and inertia in IS and AS relations do not ...
  • Monetary Policy, Endogenous Inattention, and the Volatility Trade-off 
    Branch, William A.; Carlson, John; Evans, George W., 1949-; McGough, Bruce (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2004-12-07)
    This paper addresses the output-price volatility puzzle by studying the interaction of optimal monetary policy and agents' beliefs. We assume that agents choose their information acquisition rate by minimizing a loss ...
  • Monetary Policy, Expectations and Commitment 
    Evans, George W., 1949-; Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951- (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2005-04-06)
    This is a revised and shortened version of Working Paper 2002-11. Commitment in monetary policy leads to equilibria that are superior to those from optimal discretionary policies. A number of interest rate reaction functions ...
  • Monetary policy, expectations and commitment 
    Evans, George W., 1949-; Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951- (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2002-05-22)
    Commitment in monetary policy leads to equilibria that are superior to those from optimal discretionary policies. A number of interest rate reaction functions and instrument rules have been proposed to implement or approxmiate ...
  • Monetary policy, indeterminacy and learning 
    Evans, George W., 1949-; McGough, Bruce (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2003-10-11)
    The development of tractable forward looking models of monetary policy has lead to an explosion of research on the implications of adopting Taylor-type interest rate rules. Indeterminacies have been found to arise for some ...
  • Near-Rational Exuberance 
    Bullard, James; Evans, George W., 1949-; Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951- (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2005-09-17)
    We study how the use of judgement or "add-factors" in macroeconomic forecasting may disturb the set of equilibrium outcomes when agents learn using recursive methods. We isolate conditions under which new phenomena, which ...
  • Optimal Constrained Interest-rate Rules 
    Evans, George W., 1949-; McGough, Bruce (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2005-05-19)
    We show that if policy-makers compute the optimal unconstrained interest-rate rule within a Taylor-type class, they may be led to rules that generate indeterminacy and/or instability under learning. This problem is compounded ...
  • Policy Interaction, Expectations and the Liquidity Trap 
    Evans, George W., 1949-; Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951- (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2003-04-30)
    We consider inflation and government debt dynamics when monetary policy employs a global interest rate rule and private agents forecast using adaptive learning. Because of the zero lower bound on interest rates, active ...
  • Policy Interaction, Learning and the Fiscal Theory of Prices 
    Evans, George W., 1949-; Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951- (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2002-08-03)
    We investigate both the rational explosive inflation paths studied by (McCallum 2001), and the classification of fiscal and monetary polices proposed by (Leeper 1991), for stability under learning of the rational expectations ...
  • Representations and Sunspot Stability 
    Evans, George W., 1949-; McGough, Bruce (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2007-01-01)
    By endowing his agents with simple forecasting models, or representations, Woodford (1990) found that finite state Markov sunspot equilibria may be stable under learning. We show that common factor representations ...
  • A Simple Recursive Forecasting Model 
    Branch, William A.; Evans, George W., 1949- (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2005-02-01)
    We compare the performance of alternative recursive forecasting models. A simple constant gain algorithm, used widely in the learning literature, both forecasts well out of sample and also provides the best fit to the ...
  • Stable Finite-State Markov Sunspots 
    Evans, George W., 1949-; McGough, Bruce (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2006-10-09)
    We consider a linear univariate rational expectations model, with a predetermined variable, and study existence and stability of solutions driven by an extraneous finite-state Markov process. We show that when the model ...
  • Stable Noisy K-state Markov Sunspots 
    Evans, George W., 1949-; McGough, Bruce (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2002-07-18)
    We consider a linear stochastic univariate rational expectations model, with a predetermined variable, and consider solutions driven by an extraneous finite state Markov process as well as by the fundamental noise. We ...
  • Stable Sunspot Equilibira in a Cash-in-Advance Economy 
    Evans, George W., 1949-; Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951-; Marimon, Ramon, 1953- (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2002-10-25)
    We develop a monetary model with flexible supply of labor, cash in advance constraints and government spending financed by seignorage. This model has two regimes. One regime is conventional with two steady states. The other ...
  • Stable Sunspot Solutions in Models with Predetermined Variables 
    Evans, George W., 1949-; McGough, Bruce (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2002-04-17)
    We consider a linear stochastic univariate rational expectations model, with a predetermined variable, and provide alternative representations of SSEs (stationary sunspot equilibria). For a strict subset of the parameter ...

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