Now showing items 1-8 of 8

    • Adaptive Learning, Endogenous Inattention, and Changes in Monetary Policy 

      Branch, William A.; Evans, George W., 1949-; Carlson, John; McGough, Bruce (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2006-06-22)
      This paper develops an adaptive learning formulation of an extension to the Ball, Mankiw and Reis (2005) sticky information model that incorporates endogenous inattention. We show that, following an exogenous increase in ...
    • Asset Return Dynamics and Learning 

      Branch, William A.; Evans, George W., 1949- (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2006-11-13)
      This paper advocates a theory of expectation formation that incorporates many of the central motivations of behavioral finance theory while retaining much of the discipline of the rational expectations approach. We provide ...
    • Intrinsic Heterogeneity in Expectation Formation 

      Branch, William A.; Evans, George W., 1949- (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2003-05-16)
      We introduce the concept of a Misspecification Equilibrium to dynamic macroeconomics. Agents choose between a list of misspecified econometric models and base their selection on relative forecast performance. A Misspecification ...
    • Learning about Risk and Return: A Simple Model of Bubbles and Crashes 

      Branch, William A.; Evans, George W., 1949- (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2008-01-31)
      This paper demonstrates that an asset pricing model with least-squares learning can lead to bubbles and crashes as endogenous responses to the fundamentals driving asset prices. When agents are risk-averse they generate ...
    • Model Uncertainty and Endogenous Volatility 

      Branch, William A.; Evans, George W., 1949- (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2005-10-18)
      This paper identifies two channels through which the economy can generate endogenous inflation and output volatility, an empirical regularity, by introducing model uncertainty into a Lucas-type monetary model. The equilibrium ...
    • Monetary Policy and Heterogeneous Expectations 

      Branch, William A.; Evans, George W., 1949- (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2010-04-30)
      This paper studies the implications for monetary policy of heterogeneous expectations in a New Keynesian model. The assumption of rational expec- tations is replaced with parsimonious forecasting models where agents ...
    • Monetary Policy, Endogenous Inattention, and the Volatility Trade-off 

      Branch, William A.; Carlson, John; Evans, George W., 1949-; McGough, Bruce (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2004-12-07)
      This paper addresses the output-price volatility puzzle by studying the interaction of optimal monetary policy and agents' beliefs. We assume that agents choose their information acquisition rate by minimizing a loss ...
    • A Simple Recursive Forecasting Model 

      Branch, William A.; Evans, George W., 1949- (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2005-02-01)
      We compare the performance of alternative recursive forecasting models. A simple constant gain algorithm, used widely in the learning literature, both forecasts well out of sample and also provides the best fit to the ...