Browsing Economics Working Papers by Subject "Adaptive learning"

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  • Adaptive Learning and Monetary Policy Design 
    Evans, George W., 1949-; Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951- (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2002-11-08)
    We review the recent work on interest rate setting, which emphasizes the desirability of designing policy to ensure stability under private agent learning. Appropriately designed expectations based rules can yield optimal ...
  • Adaptive Learning with a Unit Root: An Application to the Current Account 
    Davies, Ronald B.; Shea, Paul, 1977- (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2006-07-31)
    This paper develops a simple two-country, two-good model of international trade and borrowing that suppresses all previous sources of current account dynamics. Under rational expectations, international debt follows a ...
  • Adaptive Learning, Endogenous Inattention, and Changes in Monetary Policy 
    Branch, William A.; Evans, George W., 1949-; Carlson, John; McGough, Bruce (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2006-06-22)
    This paper develops an adaptive learning formulation of an extension to the Ball, Mankiw and Reis (2005) sticky information model that incorporates endogenous inattention. We show that, following an exogenous increase in ...
  • Asset Return Dynamics and Learning 
    Branch, William A.; Evans, George W., 1949- (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2006-11-13)
    This paper advocates a theory of expectation formation that incorporates many of the central motivations of behavioral finance theory while retaining much of the discipline of the rational expectations approach. We provide ...
  • Comment on "Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy" by Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams 
    Evans, George W., 1949- (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2003-03-31)
    Summarizes the Orphanides-Williams argument, locates the paper within the rapidly growing literature on learning and monetary policy, and offers specific comments on natural extensions or alternative approaches.
  • Expectations, Deflation Traps and Macroeconomic Policy 
    Evans, George W., 1949-; Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951- (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2009-07-06)
    We examine global economic dynamics under infinite-horizon learning in a New Keynesian model in which the interest-rate rule is subject to the zero lower bound. As in Evans, Guse and Honkapohja (2008), we find that under ...
  • Generalized Stochastic Gradient Learning 
    Evans, George W., 1949-; Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951- (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2005-09-19)
    We study the properties of generalized stochastic gradient (GSG) learning in forwardlooking models. We examine how the conditions for stability of standard stochastic gradient (SG) learning both differ from and are related ...
  • Learning about Risk and Return: A Simple Model of Bubbles and Crashes 
    Branch, William A.; Evans, George W., 1949- (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2008-01-31)
    This paper demonstrates that an asset pricing model with least-squares learning can lead to bubbles and crashes as endogenous responses to the fundamentals driving asset prices. When agents are risk-averse they generate ...
  • Liquidity Traps, Learning and Stagnation 
    Evans, George W., 1949-; Guse, Eran A. (Eran Alan), 1975-; Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951- (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2007-06-05)
    We examine global economic dynamics under learning in a New Keynesian model in which the interest-rate rule is subject to the zero lower bound. Under normal monetary and fiscal policy, the intended steady state is locally ...
  • Model Uncertainty and Endogenous Volatility 
    Branch, William A.; Evans, George W., 1949- (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2005-10-18)
    This paper identifies two channels through which the economy can generate endogenous inflation and output volatility, an empirical regularity, by introducing model uncertainty into a Lucas-type monetary model. The equilibrium ...
  • Monetary Policy and Heterogeneous Expectations 
    Branch, William A.; Evans, George W., 1949- (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2010-04-30)
    This paper studies the implications for monetary policy of heterogeneous expectations in a New Keynesian model. The assumption of rational expec- tations is replaced with parsimonious forecasting models where agents ...
  • Monetary Policy, Endogenous Inattention, and the Volatility Trade-off 
    Branch, William A.; Carlson, John; Evans, George W., 1949-; McGough, Bruce (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2004-12-07)
    This paper addresses the output-price volatility puzzle by studying the interaction of optimal monetary policy and agents' beliefs. We assume that agents choose their information acquisition rate by minimizing a loss ...
  • Monetary Policy, Expectations and Commitment 
    Evans, George W., 1949-; Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951- (University of Oregon, Dept of Economics, 2005-04-06)
    This is a revised and shortened version of Working Paper 2002-11. Commitment in monetary policy leads to equilibria that are superior to those from optimal discretionary policies. A number of interest rate reaction functions ...
  • Monetary policy, expectations and commitment 
    Evans, George W., 1949-; Honkapohja, Seppo, 1951- (University of Oregon, Dept. of Economics, 2002-05-22)
    Commitment in monetary policy leads to equilibria that are superior to those from optimal discretionary policies. A number of interest rate reaction functions and instrument rules have been proposed to implement or approxmiate ...

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