An Examination of the Time Series Evidence on AK-Style Endogenous Growth Models
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In "Time Series Tests of Endogenous Growth Models" (1995)1, Charles Jones concludes that the two textbook endogenous growth models - AK-models and R&D based models -are inconsistent with time series evidence. Showing that there is little or no persistent increase in growth rates of OECD countries but large persistent movements in investment, Jones argues that either the persistent movements in growth determinant variables have been offsetting, or "the hallmark of the endogenous growth models, that permanent changes in policy variables have permanent effects on growth rates, is misleading." This pafer replicates his time series test ofAK models and extends its original data to 2004 . The extended data exhibit negative trends or no trend at all in total investment rates, but in general still support the conclusions of the original paper.