ORI Research Bulletin, Volume 13

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https://hdl.handle.net/1794/30339

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    Judgement Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, No. 1
    (Oregon Research Institute, 1973-07) Tversky, Amos; Kahneman, Daniel
    Most important decisions are based on beliefs concerning the likelihood of uncertain events such as the outcome of an election, the guilt of a defendant, or the future value of the dollar. These beliefs are usually expressed in statements such as "I think that ... ", "chances are ... ", "It is unlikely that .. . ", etc. Occasionally, beliefs concerning uncertain events are expressed in a numerical form as odds or subjective probabilities. What determines such beliefs? How do people assess the likelihood of an W1certain event or the value of an uncertain quantity? The theme of the present paper is that people rely on a limited number of heuristic principles by which they reduce the complex tasks of assessing likelihoods and predicting values to simpler judgmental operations. In general, these heuristics are quite useful, but sometimes they leads to severe and systematic errors.
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    The Commons Dilemma Game: An N-Person Mixed-Motive Game With a Dominating Strategy for Defection, No. 2
    (Oregon Research Institute, 1973-09) Dawes, Robyn M.
    If individuals were to decide for themselves whether to buy anti-pollution devices for their cars, a commons dilemma would result (Lloyd, 1833; Hardin, 1968). The money saved by not buying the device accrues directly to the individual while the harm done by the resulting pollution is shared equally by all. Moreover, the argument for not buying is independent of others' decisions --because if they do buy, the individual who does not makes no appreciable contribution to pollution, and if they don't the individual who does makes no appreciable contribution to reducing pollution . Yet everyone would prefer to have everyone buy . This paper presents an experimental commons dilemma game that has all the properties of the commons dilemma and that reduces to a prisoner's dilemma game when there are only two players.
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    The Decision to Pollute, No. 4
    (Oregon Research Institute, 1973-12) Dawes, Robyn M.; Delay, Jack; Chaplin, William
    One way of studying the pollution problem is to examine the decision making process in situations in which gain accrues directly to an individual while loss is spread out across the group of which the individual is a member. Such a situation has been termed a commons dilemma by Lloyd in 1833; it is a variant of the well known prisoner's dilemma. The mathematical model of rational decision making when facing the commons dilemma implies the dismal conclusion that individuals acting rationally will end up destroying, or nearly destroying, the common wealth. Suggestions are made concerning ways in which people may be persuaded not to pollute our environment.
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    Training Mothers of Disruptive Nonreaders In Remedial Skills: A Home Tutoring Program, No. 3
    (Oregon Research Institute, 1973-10) Skindrud, Karl
    A tutoring program was developed which applies reinforcement principles to the teaching of reading, utilizes linguistically controlled programmed reading material, and is easily administered by parents . Three mothers of disruptive children with reading deficits were trained to use the tutoring program in three to 20 hours of direct supervision. The data from this initial evaluation suggest that (1) parents can be trained to effectively tutor their own disruptive child at home, (2) significant increases in reading skills can interact with contingency management programs in the classroom to reduce otherwise intractable disruptive behavior in a nonreader, and (3) parents of children who perceive their child's reading deficit as severe and bearing on school placement are most likely to maintain the daily home tutoring . A cost-effectiveness comparison is made between the home tutoring program and traditional and innovative remedial tutoring programs. The literature relating reading deficits, classroom behavior and delinquency is briefly reviewed. Further study of the trends noted in this investigation and improvements in the tutoring procedures are recommended.