Potential Impacts of Autonomous Vehicle Deployment on Parking and Development
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Date
2023-02
Authors
Larco, Nico
Howell, Amanda
Leavitt, Mason
Carlton, Ian
Kim, James
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
University of Oregon
Abstract
An often-claimed benefit of autonomous vehicle (AV) deployment has been
its reduction on parking demand and the potential impact this could have on
development. If demand for parking is drastically reduced by the deployment of AVs,
the logic is that developers would need to build far less parking than is required today
by code and/or is deemed necessary to serve users, freeing up land for development
and making projects financially viable. Using San Francisco as a case study,
researchers at the Urbanism Next Center and ECONorthwest explored this idea in
depth, modeling the potential impacts that AVs could have on development.
To inform our analysis, we first conducted a literature review of modeled/predicted
reductions of parking demand based on the deployment of AVs. Efforts to estimate
the potential impact of AVs on parking demand have produced varied results
ranging from as much as a 90% decrease in demand in some scenarios to an
overall increase in demand in others. The inconsistency in results underscores the
complexity of the topic and the difficulties that are associated with trying to model
future demand. Model results are dependent on the parameters and assumptions
made about factors such as fleet mix (e.g., shared vs. individually owned AVs), market
penetration/adoption rate, the percentage of rides that are pooled, and more.
Description
55 pages
Keywords
parking, autonomous vehicles, development patterns