Forecasting Trajectories of Fabricated and Natural Capital: A Political Economic Model of Doomsday, Social-ecological Resilience and Green Innovation
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Date
2020-04-11
Authors
Ribe, Robert
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Abstract
An instructive graphical macroeconomic theory is recapitulated describing the interaction of private production of commercial services with natural production of ecosystem services. It features investments in maintaining the health of natural capital and analysis of marginal changes in absolute metrics of private and natural capital productivity. Analysis of trade-offs among costs, benefits and wealth production explore macroeconomic trajectories employing sustained yield doctrine, low- impact technologies, green technologies, artificial production of ecosystem services, debt-financed natural capital investments and a more probable scenario. Sustained yield won’t work as a policy or prescriptive framework. Widespread restoration of robust ecosystems is unlikely, but resilient natural capital systems may be possible. Large investments in natural capital restoration and low-impact green technologies are required while retaining reasonable levels of profitability in both the commercial and ecosystem restoration sectors. The role of projected innovation in achieving long-term sustainability and climate stability is projected and unresolved issues identified.
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Social collapse, Alternative futures, Sustainable development, Ecosystem investment, Political economics, Green technology