Creating Algorithms as an Aid to Judgment
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Date
1989
Authors
Lichtenstein, Sarah
MacGregor, Donald G.
Slovic, Paul
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Decision Research
Abstract
A critical task often performed by decision makers is to make estimates of important
points of fact. Previous research has suggested that decomposition of numerical estimation
problems can result in improved estimation performance, particularly when the problem is
structured as an algorithm. However, algorithms used in past studies have been provided
by the experimenters, rather than created by the estimator. This study reports on the usefulness
of algorithmic decomposition when people are trained to create their own algorithms
in the context of a task requiring them to evaluate an answer given to them for an
estimation problem. The results suggest that people can be trained to construct complete
and useful algorithms to verify numerical estimates, but that misinformation about factual
knowledge used in an algorithm can seriously bias estimation performance.
Description
36 pages
Keywords
Algorithms, Aid, Judgment, Numerical estimation, Estimates
Citation
Lichtenstein, S., MacGregor, D. G., & Slovic, P. (1989). Creating algorithms as an aid to judgment (Report No. 87-5). Eugene, OR: Decision Research.