Public perceptions of expert disagreement: Bias and incompetence or a complex and random world?
| dc.contributor.author | Dieckmann, Nathan, F | |
| dc.contributor.author | Johnson, Branden B. | |
| dc.contributor.author | Gregory, Robin | |
| dc.contributor.author | Mayorga, Marcus | |
| dc.contributor.author | Han, Paul, KJ | |
| dc.contributor.author | Slovic, Paul | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2015-11-04T18:45:33Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2015-11-04T18:45:33Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2015-11-04 | |
| dc.description | 30 page PDF | en_US |
| dc.description.abstract | Expert disputes can present laypeople with several challenges including trying to understand why such disputes occur. In an online survey of the U.S. public, we used a psychometric approach to elicit perceptions of expert disputes for 56 forecasts sampled from seven domains (climate change, crime, economics, environment, health, politics, terrorism). People with low education, or with low self-reported knowledge of the topic, were most likely to attribute expert disputes to expert incompetence. People with higher self-reported knowledge tended to attribute disputes to expert bias due to financial or ideological reasons. The more highly educated and cognitively able were most likely to attribute disputes to natural factors, such as the irreducible complexity and randomness of the phenomenon. We highlight several important implications of these results for scientists and risk managers and argue for further research on how people perceive and grapple with expert disputes. | en_US |
| dc.description.sponsorship | We would like to acknowledge the generous support of the National Science Foundation: This material is based upon work supported by NSF under Grant Nos. #1231231 (Robin Gregory, PI; Nathan Dieckmann co-PI) and #0925008 (Nathan Dieckmann, PI) to Decision Research. All views expressed in this paper are those of the authors alone. | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://pus.sagepub.com/content/early/2015/09/04/0963662515603271.abstract?rss=1 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/1794/19439 | |
| dc.language.iso | en_US | en_US |
| dc.rights | Creative Commons BY-NC-ND 4.0-US | en_US |
| dc.subject | Expert disagreement | en_US |
| dc.subject | Forecasting | en_US |
| dc.subject | Public beliefs | en_US |
| dc.subject | Attribution | en_US |
| dc.title | Public perceptions of expert disagreement: Bias and incompetence or a complex and random world? | en_US |
| dc.type | Article | en_US |