Extreme Weather Events and Rural-Urban Migration

Abstract

In numerous regions around the globe, climate change can be expected to change the pattern of severe weather events. Migration flows have been systematically larger the higher the proportion of the population in urban areas in the destination county relative to the origin county. Richer models demonstrate that the effects of a number of different types of extreme weather events (i.e. flooding, heat waves, and wildfires) in the origin county on county-to-county migration flows are statistically significantly greater when the destination county is more urbanized. The effect of the number of fatalities from flooding and heat waves in the origin county on migration flows is also amplified when the destination county is more urbanized. Thus it appears that even in a developed country like the U.S. extreme weather events still exacerbate rural-to-urban migration flows.