Prairie Plant Responses to Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest

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Date

2021-09-13

Authors

Reed, Paul

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Publisher

University of Oregon

Abstract

Understanding how plants respond to climate change is of paramount importance since their responses can affect ecosystem functions and patterns of biodiversity. At the population level, climate change may alter phenology or demographic performance, causing a shift in where a species can persist. Despite being necessary to predict geographic range shifts, the effects of climate change on populations across large spatial gradients are not well understood. At the community level, changes to biotic interactions can amplify or counteract direct climatic effects and drive changes in plant community composition. Although plant community responses to climate change have been studied extensively, significant questions remain about the underlying mechanisms that drive those responses. These challenges make it difficult to predict the effects of future climate change on ecosystems. Prairies in the western Pacific Northwest are critically endangered ecosystems whose flora may be exceptionally vulnerable to the effects of climate change. As a result, there is growing urgency to understand how plants will respond to climate change in this system. My dissertation addresses these challenges and concerns using a climate manipulation experiment embedded within a latitudinal climate gradient in the western Pacific Northwest. The studies presented herein provide novel information about prairie plant phenological, demographic, and community responses to changes in temperature, moisture, and other factors. In Chapter II, I investigate how changes in temperature and moisture affect flowering times and temporal patterns of vegetation growth across a latitudinal gradient. In Chapters III and IV, I model the demographic performance of a suite of 14 native species, including six perennials (Chapter III) and eight annuals (Chapter IV). Several of these species are range-limited, providing novel insight about the differential responses to climate change within versus beyond current range boundaries. Finally, Chapter V explores the direct and indirect pathways of climate-driven community change and expands our mechanistic understanding of the factors underlying plant community composition. Throughout these chapters, I infer how plant responses to climate change may affect regional prairie conservation and restoration efforts in the future. This dissertation includes previously published and unpublished coauthored material.

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Keywords

Climate Change, Community Ecology, Pacific Northwest Prairies, Phenology, Plant Demography, Restoration

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